College Football Betting Picks Week Five: Arizona Wildcats at #16 Washington Huskies
Arizona Wildcats at #16 Washington Huskies
Husky Stadium – Seattle, Washington
Saturday, September 28, 2013, 7:00 pm Eastern, TV: Fox
Opening Line: Washington -7
Current Line: Washington -10
Opening Total: 63
Current Total: 61 1/2
Opening Money Line: Washington -320 / Arizona +265
Current Money Line: Washington -340 / Arizona +280
The Washington Huskies and Arizona Wildcats are both 3-0 as they open Pac 12 play against each other Saturday night in Seattle. This is the 30th meeting between the schools and Washington leads the series 18-10-1. The Huskies have won 11 of the last 18. The home team has won the last 5 in this series, including a 52-17 rout by Arizona last year in Tucson.
Arizona is coached by Rich Rodriguez. The Wildcats opened with home wins over Northern Arizona 35-0, and two weeks ago against Texas-San Antonio. Arizona also has a road win over UNLV 58-13. The Wildcats are 2-1 ATS and the total is 1-2. Arizona failed to cover by the hook against UTSA as they were 25.5 point favorites. The game stayed under the 62.5 point total.
After UTSA kicked a field goal in the first quarter, Arizona scored 17 unanswered points to take control of the game. The Roadrunners kicked another field goal but Arizona scored another touchdown before halftime to make it 24-6. The Wildcats added two more touchdowns to make it 38-6. UTSA would score a touchdown with just over 9 minutes to go to get inside the spread. The Wildcats had two more drives after that but the first one ended with a punt, and the second ended with a fumble at the UTSA 35 that was recovered by the Roadrunners. Arizona had 422 total yards including 264 rushing yards. UTSA had 379 total yards. The Roadrunners had 2 turnovers and the Wildcats had just the one fumble.
Arizona is outscoring teams 44-9 this season. The Wildcats are #15 nationally in scoring and #3 in points allowed. Arizona is averaging 431 yards per game including the nation’s fifth best rushing attack at 322.3 yards per game. The passing game is #119 out of 125 teams at 108.7 yards per game. On defense, the Wildcats are allowing 310.3 yards per game including 192.7 passing and 117.7 yards per game. Arizona is 41st or better in all three categories. The Wildcats are +6 in turnovers with 8 takeaways. Arizona is 24/49 on third and fourth down conversions, and opponents are 21/59. The Wildcats have forced 6 sacks and allowed 3. Arizona is 11/13 scoring in the red zone with 8 touchdowns, and opponents are 2/3 with one touchdown. The Wildcats have 3 pick sixes this season.
Arizona quarterback B.J. Denker has completed 56.4% of his passes for 326 yards with 2 touchdowns and no picks. Denker also has 40 carries, 224 yards and 5 touchdowns. Running back Ka’Deem Carey has 43 carries, 299 yards and 4 touchdowns, along with 2 catches for 33 yards. Daniel Jenkins has 35 carries, 239 yards and a touchdown, along with 5 catches for 23 yards and a touchdown. Jared Baker, Javelle Allen and Kylan Butler will also get some carries. Allen and Butler each have a rushing touchdown. Garic Wharton and Samajie Grant will get most of the receiving targets on the few times the Wildcats throw the ball. Three Wildcat receivers (David Richards, DaVonte Neal, and Austin Hill) are all listed as questionable or out, and so are three Arizona defensive players including 2 linebackers.
Washington is coached by Steve Sarkisian. The Huskies have wins over Boise State 38-6 in Seattle, at Illinois 34-24, and last week at home against Idaho State 56-0. Washington is 2-1 ATS and the total is 1-2 this week. The Huskies covered the 49.5 point spread against Idaho State and the Huskies went over the 52.5 point total by themselves.
Washington scored 21 points in both the first and second quarters to take a 42-0 lead into the locker room. The Huskies called off the dogs (so to speak) in the second half and only scored 14 points in the second half. Washington cranked out 680 total yards including 370 rushing and 310 passing yards. The Huskies held the Bengals to 164 total yards and 13 first downs. Washington actually had 16 penalties for 130 yards and a turnover. Idaho State had 10 penalties for 65 yards and 3 turnovers.
Washington is outscoring teams 43-10 this season. The Huskies are #18 in scoring and #8 in points allowed. Washington is #3 nationally in total offense at 629 yards per game, with 325.3 passing yards (#17 nationally) and 303.7 rushing yards (#9). On defense, The Huskies are allowing 279 yards per game including 169.3 passing and 109.7 rushing yards. Washington is 25th or better in all three categories. The Huskies are +1 in turnovers with 5 takeaways. Washington is averaging 98 penalty yards per game and opponents are averaging 50. The Huskies are 28/45 on third and fourth down conversions, and opponents are 21/58. Washington has forced 11 sacks and allowed 3. The Huskies are 16/19 scoring in the red zone with 13 touchdowns, and opponents are 4/8 with 2 touchdowns.
Quarterback Keith Price has completed 77% of his passes for 879 yards with 7 touchdowns and an interception along with 11 carries and a rushing touchdown. Running back Bishop Sankey has 64 carries, 446 yards and 4 touchdowns, along with 4 catches 75 yards and a touchdown. Jesse Callier has 14 carries, 108 yards and 2 touchdowns. Dwayne Washington has 25 carries, 105 yards and a touchdown, and a touchdown catch. Receiver Jaydon Mickens has 20 catches, 199 yards and a touchdown. Kasen Williams has 11 catches 204 yards and a touchdown. Kevin Smith has 11 catches for 201 yards. Tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins has 8 catches, 70 yards and a touchdown. Joshua Perkins has only 3 catches, but 2 went for touchdowns.
Arizona is 10-23 ATS after gaining more than 200 rushing yards, 3-7 in September, and 2-5 against teams with winning records. The last 6 games in the series have gone over the total, and the over is 8-1 in the last 9 in Seattle between the two teams. The Wildcats are 9-4 ATS in the last 13 against the Huskies, including 6-2 in Seattle.
Washington is 13-3 ATS at home, 4-1 in Pac 12 games, and against teams with winning records, 7-2 overall, 6-2 against teams with winning road records, 18-7-1 after gaining more than 450 total yards, and on fieldturf, 8-19 after allowing less than 275 total yards, 2-5 after allowing less than 100 rushing yards, 1-4 after passing for more than 280 total yards, and after allowing less than 170 passing yards, 1-5 after scoring more than 40 points, and after a win by 20 points or more. The home team has covered the last 5 in this series, and the favorite is 4-1 ATS.
Both of these teams have very strong rushing attacks and top 10 scoring defenses. The Huskies and Wildcats are almost even statistically, but Washington has a much more balanced attack as they throw and rush for over 300 yards a game. The Huskies have also played a more difficult schedule with wins over Boise State and at Illinois. I think Washington wins a shootout and gets the late cover.
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