College Football Betting Picks Week #3: #25 Ole Miss Rebels at Texas Longhorns
#25 Ole Miss Rebels at Texas Longhorns
Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium – Austin, Texas
Saturday, September 14, 2013, 8:00 pm Eastern, TV: Longhorn Network
Opening Line: Texas -3 1/2
Current Line: Texas -2 1/2 (-115)
Opening Total: 65
Current Total: 66
Opening Money Line: Texas -140 / Ole Miss +120
Current Money Line: Texas -145 / Ole Miss +125
It was not a good week for the Texas Longhorns last week as BYU racked up 550 rushing yards against Texas in a 40-21 rout that wasn’t that close. Texas coach Mack Brown demoted defensive coordinator Manny Diaz and replaced him with former coordinator Greg Robinson. It doesn’t get any easier for the 1-1 Longhorns as they host #25 ranked 2-0 Ole Miss Saturday night.
This is the 8th meeting all-time between Texas and Ole Miss. The Longhorns lead the series 6-1 against the Rebels. Texas won last year in Oxford 66-31. The only win for Ole Miss came in the 1958 Sugar Bowl. The Rebels haven’t played in Austin since 1925.
Mississippi is coached by Hugh Freeze. The Rebels are 2-0 with wins at Vanderbilt 39-35 and last week at home against Southeast Missouri State 31-13. Ole Miss is 1-1 ATS and the total is also 1-1. The Rebels did not come close to covering the 49.5 point spread against SE Missouri State and the game went under the 60.5 point total. Ole Miss scored 31 first half points, but would not score in the second half. The Redhawks scored two third quarter touchdowns but missed the extra point on the second one. Neither team would score in the fourth. Ole Miss had 532 total yards and 272 rushing yards. SEMSU had 252 total yards. The Rebels had 3 turnovers and the Redhawks had 2 of their own.
Ole Miss is outscoring teams 35-24 this season. The Rebels average 510.5 total yards per game including 239 rushing yards. On defense, Ole Miss is allowing 339 total yards per game. Ole Miss is +1 in turnovers with 4 takeaways. Ole Miss is 21/37 on third and fourth down conversions. The Rebels are 8/9 scoring in the red zone with 6 touchdowns.
Quarterback Bo Wallace has completed 62.9% of his passes for 471 yards with 2 touchdown passes and no interceptions, along with 20 carries for 63 yards and 2 touchdowns. Back-up Barry Brunetti usually takes a few snaps a game. Brunetti has completed 3 of 12 passes for 48 yards, but is much more effective running. He has 20 carries, 115 yards and 3 touchdowns. Running back Jeff Scott has 16 carries, 166 yards and a touchdown, along with 5 catches for 30 yards. Receiver Evan Engram has 7 catches for 131 yards and a touchdown. Donte Moncrief has 7 catches, 130 yards and a touchdown. Laquon Treadwell has 11 catches for 109 yards.
After crushing New Mexico St 56-7 at home, Texas went to Provo to face BYU. Texas is 1-1 ATS and the total is 2-0. The Longhorns were 7 point favorites at BYU and the total was 56.5. BYU opened the scoring with a field goal, and then Texas took the lead 7-3 on a 57 touchdown pass from quarterback Davis Ash to receiver Mike Davis. BYU quarterback Taysom Hill would score the first of his 3 rushing touchdowns on a 68 yard run to give the Cougars a 10-7 lead. Texas regained the lead 14-10 on a two yard touchdown run from Joe Bergeron early in the second. However, BYU would score 24 unanswered points to take control of the game 34-14. Ash threw another touchdown pass to Davis midway through the third to pull Texas within 34-21. BYU would add two field goals before the end of the third to make it 40-21. Neither would score in the fourth quarter. Texas had 445 total yards, but the Longhorn defense was shredded for 679 total yards including a school record 550 rushing yards. BYU had 2 turnovers and Texas had none.
Texas is outscoring teams 38.5-23.5 this season The Longhorns are averaging 580 yards per game on offense, including 245.5 rushing yards. On defense Texas is allowing 512.5 yards per game including 327 rushing yards. The Longhorns are +2 in turnovers with 5 takeaways. Texas is 11/32 on third and fourth down conversions, and 2 for 3 scoring in the red zone with 2 touchdowns.
Ash has completed 62.9% of his passes for 594 yards with 6 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, along with 24 carries, 125 yards and a touchdown. He left the BYU game in the fourth quarter with head and shoulder injuries. Ashe hasn’t practiced this week and is listed as doubtful Saturday. Back-up Case McCoy will likely get the start if Ashe can’t go. McCoy has platooned with Ashe in the past but has been inconsistent in his career. Running back Johnathan Gray has 19 carries, 118 yards and also has 2 catches. Jalen Overstreet has 10 carries, 89 yards and 2 touchdowns. Bergeron has 11 carries, 82 yards and a touchdown. Running back Daje Johnson who is not only a great back, but is a great receiver as well is out with an ankle injury. Davis has 13 catches 177 yards and 3 scores, Jaxon Shipley has 13 catches for 145 yards.
Ole Miss is 4-0 ATS after allowing 100 rushing yards or less, 5-1 in road games, 4-1 overall, 15-5 in non conference games, 6-2 on fieldturf, 11-5 after allowing less than 275 total yards, 18-8 after allowing less than 170 passing yards, 2-5 after failing to cover, 2-5-1 against Big 12 teams, and 2-5 after allowing 20 points or less.
Texas is 4-1 ATS in non-conference games, 7-3 after allowing 450 total yards or more, 5-11 after allowing 170 passing yards or less, 6-14 after passing for more than 280 yards, 1-4 after allowing more than 200 rushing yards, and 2-8 against teams with winning road records.
Texas is a 2.5 point favorite at home, but I am not sure they should be. They will likely start McCoy who has been a little shaky in his career, and the defense and offensive line are both in shambles right now. Brunetti and Scott should have a field day against the Texas defense. I think Ole Miss wins this game by double digits. With games upcoming at home against Kansas State and the always dangerous trip to Ames to play Iowa St, it is possible Texas could be 1-4 before the Red River Showdown against Oklahoma.
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