College Football Betting Picks Week 14: #11 Oklahoma Sooners at TCU Horned Frogs

#11 Oklahoma Sooners at Texas Christian Horned Frogs
Saturday, December 1, 2012, 12:00 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN
Amon Carter Stadium – Fort Worth, Texas
Opening Line: Oklahoma -7
Current Line: Oklahoma -6
Opening Total: 60 1/2
Current Total: 59 1/2
Opening Money Line: Oklahoma -275 / TCU +235
Current Money Line: Oklahoma -240 / TCU +200

Oklahoma can clinch at least a share of the Big 12 title with a win Saturday at TCU. The Sooners are 6 point favorites.

The 9-2 Oklahoma Sooners take on the 7-4 TCU Horned Frogs Saturday in Fort Worth. The Sooners have two goals in mind Saturday, and both hinge on beating TCU. First, if Oklahoma wins and Texas beats Kansas St then Oklahoma will win the Big 12 title outright and clinch a berth in the Fiesta Bowl. Even if Kansas St wins, a 10-2 Oklahoma  team would be an attractive candidate for an at large bid to the Orange or Sugar Bowls. However, that bid could be taken by 11-1 Kent St if they beat Northern Illinois in Friday’s MAC Championship game. The Golden Flashes are currently #17 in the BCS Standings but will clinch an automatic BCS berth if they finish in the top 16. For TCU, nothing is really at stake except for the chance to play spoiler and perhaps a chance to better their bowl position in the Big 12.

Oklahoma leads the series 7-4 against TCU, including 4-0 in Fort Worth. The Sooners won 35-10 in the last meeting in 2008. Oklahoma hasn’t played in Fort Worth since 1998. The two became conference rivals this year when TCU moved from the Mountain West to the Big 12.

Oklahoma is 7-1 in the Big 12 under coach Bob Stoops. The Sooners are #11 in the BCS standings. The only losses came at home to current #7 Kansas St 24-19 and #1 Notre Dame 30-13. The Sooners have home wins over Florida A&M 69-13, Kansas 52-7, Baylor 42-34, and last week against Bedlam rival Oklahoma St 51-48 in overtime, plus a win in Dallas over Texas 63-21, along with road wins at UTEP 24-7, Texas Tech 41-20, Iowa St 35-20 and at West Virginia 50-49. Oklahoma is 5-6 ATS and the total is 7-3. The Sooners were 6.5 point favorites and the total was 70 in the OSU game last week.

Oklahoma is averaging 512.8 yards per game on offense, including 349.3 passing yards and 163.5 rushing yards. The Sooners are outscoring teams 42-25 this season. The Sooners are in the top 10 nationally in total offense, passing and scoring. The Sooners are -3 in turnovers this season with 17 turnovers. The Sooners are 88/163 on third and fourth down conversions, and 55/61 scoring in the red zone including 43 touchdowns. Oklahoma has allowed 14 sacks this season and averages 47.8 penalty yards per game. On defense, Oklahoma is allowing 381.4 total yards, including 194.6 passing yards and 186.7 rushing yards. The Sooners are #22 against the pass. The Sooners have forced 23 sacks and 14 turnovers this season. Oklahoma opponents are 30/35 scoring in the red zone with 23 touchdowns, and 82/189 on third and fourth down conversions. Oklahoma has 4 defensive/special teams touchdowns this season.

Quarterback Landry Jones has completed 310 of 467 passes (66.4%) for 3,745 yards with 27 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. He has been sacked 12 times this season. Back-up quarterback Blake Bell has 54 carries, 182 yards and 11 touchdowns. He scored the game tying touchdown with just seconds left against Oklahoma St to send the game into overtime. Running back Damien Williams has 142 carries, 790 yards, and 10 touchdowns, along with 25 catches for 262 yards. Brennan Clay has 77 carries, 464 yards and 6 touchdowns, along with 14 catches for 90 yards and a touchdown. Clay is probable with a leg injury. Dominique Whaley has 39 carries, 243 yards, and a touchdown.  Fullback Trey Millard has 26 carries for 162 yards, along with 27 catches, 306 yards and 4 touchdowns. Roy Finch has a rushing touchdown and a kickoff return for a touchdown.  Receiver Kenny Stills has 73 catches, 876 yards, and 11 touchdowns. Justin Brown has 62 catches, 795 yards and 4 touchdowns, along with a punt return for a touchdown. Jalen Saunders has 46 catches, 658 ayrds, and 2 touchowns, along with a punt return TD. Sterling Shepard, and Trey Metoyer will also get some catches. Seven Sooners are out indefinitely or for the season, including 4 defensive players.

TCU is 4-4 in the Big 12 under coach Gary Patterson. TCU has losses at home against Iowa St 37-23 Texas Tech 56-53 in triple overtime, and Kansas St 23-10 along with a road loss at Oklahoma St 36-14. Strangely, TCU has not won won a conference home game this season. After a 4-0 start, TCU has gone 3-4 since after quarterback Casey Pachall  was kicked off the team after being arrested for DUI. TCU has home wins over Grambling 56-0 and Virginia 27-7, along with road wins at Kansas 20-6, SMU 24-16, at Baylor 49-21, West Virginia 39-38 in double overtime and last week 20-13 at Texas. The Horned Frogs are 5-6 ATS and the total is 4-6 this season. TCU was a 7.5 point underdog against Texas and the total was 55.

TCU is averaging 401.3 yards per game, including 240.3 passing and 161 rushing yards. The Horned Frogs are outscoring teams 31-23 this season. TCU is +4 in turnovers despite having 26 turnovers. The Horned Frogs are averaging 65.9 penalty yards per game, and have allowed 23 sacks. TCU is 67/179 on third and fourth down conversions and 37/51 scoring in the red zone including 26 touchdowns. The Horned Frogs are allowing 323.9 yards per game on defense, including 226.6 passing yards and 97.3 rushing yards. TCU is in the top 17 nationally in total defense and against the run. The Frogs have forced 30 turnovers and 26 sacks. TCU opponents are 52/169 on third and fourth down conversions and 27/33 scoring in the red zone with 14 touchdowns. The Horned Frogs have 4 defensive/special teams touchdowns.

TCU quarterback freshman Trevone Boykin took over as the starter from Pachall. Boykin has completed 137 of 232 passes (59.1%) for 1,622 yards with 14 touchdowns and 9 interceptions, and also has 103 carries, 344 yards and 2 rushing touchdowns. Running back B.J. Catalan has 105 carries for 511 yards, along with 21 catches for 150 yards and a touchdown. Matthew Tucker has 105 carries, 467 yards, and 5 touchdowns, along with 7 catches, 64 yards and a touchdown.  Aundre Dean has 61 carries, 269 yards, and a receiving touchdown on his only catch of the season. Running back Wayman James is out for the season with a torn ACL. Laderice Sanders only has 3 carries, but has 2 touchdowns. Receiver Josh Boyce has 56 catches, 756 yards with 7 touchdowns, and also has a rushing touchdown.  Brandon Carter has 33 catches, 499 yards, and 5 touchdowns. Skye Dawson has 31 catches, 428 yards and a touchdown. LaDarius Brown has 22 catches, 327 yards and 5 touchdowns. Four other Horned frogs are out for the season including 3 defensive players.

Oklahoma is 4-1 ATS after gaining more than 450 total yards, 6-2 after allowing 200 rushing yards or more, 11-4 after allowing 280 passing yards or more, 13-6 after failing to cover, 2-5 after scoring more than 40 points, 1-4 overall, and 0-4 after a straight up win.

TCU is 6-2 in December, 1-4 after allowing less than 100 rushing yards, and after allowing 20 points or less, 3-13 after a cover, 0-4 after a straight up win, and 0-7 at home against teams with winning records.

For some reason, TCU is a better road team than at home. While upsets over Texas and Oklahoma to end the regular season and move to 8-4 would be nice for the Horned Frogs, Oklahoma has much more at stake. I don’t think TCU can get into a shootout with Oklahoma, because the Frogs simply don’t have the firepower. Oklahoma quarterback Landry Jones has been red hot in the last two games passing for over 500 yards against West Virginia and Oklahoma St. TCU has a much better defense than those two, but I still like Oklahoma to take care of business on the road.

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