College Football Betting Picks Outback Bowl: Iowa Hawkeyes vs #16 LSU Tigers
2014 Outback Bowl
Iowa Hawkeyes vs #16 LSU Tigers
Raymond James Stadium – Tampa Bay, Florida
Wednesday, January 1, 2014, 1:00 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN
Opening Line: LSU -7
Current Line: LSU -7 1/2
Opening Total: 49 1/2
Current Total: 49
Opening Money Line: LSU -290 / Iowa +240
Current Money Line: LSU -300 / Iowa +250
The 9-3 LSU Tigers take on the 8-4 Iowa Hawkeyes in the 2014 Outback Bowl in Tampa Bay Wednesday. The two schools have only met one time in history with Iowa winning 30-25 in the 2005 Capital One Bowl. Iowa finished 5-3 in the Big Ten Legends Division. The Hawkeyes tied with Nebraska for second in the division behind 8-0 Michigan State. LSU finshed third in the SEC West with a 5-3 record, behind 7-1 Auburn and Alabama.
Iowa is 14-11-1 all-time in bowl games. The Hawkeyes have made 22 of their 24 bowl appearances since 1982. Iowa missed out on a bowl last season but lost their last bowl to Oklahoma 31-14 in the Insight Bowl in Tempe in 2011. That loss snapped a 3 game bowl winning streak for the Hawkeyes. Iowa has played in the Ourback Bowl 3 times since 2004, but not since 2009. Iowa went 2-1 in those games.
LSU is 22-21-1 in bowl games all-time. The Tigers have appeared in 14 straight bowl games dating back to 2000. LSU has lost 3 of their last 4 bowl games, including 2 straight. The Tigers lost to Clemson 25-24 last year in the Chick-fil-A Bowl in Atlanta. LSU lost their only appearance in this game to Syracuse in 1989.
Iowa is coached by Kirk Ferentz. The Hawkeyes have home losses to Northern Illinois 30-27, Michigan State 26-14, and Wisconsin 28-9, along with a road loss at Ohio State 34-24. Iowa has home wins over Missouri State 28-14, Western Michigan 59-3, Northwestern 17-10 in overtime, and Michigan 24-21, along with road wins at Iowa State 27-21, Minnesota 23-7, Purdue 38-14, and Nebraska 38-17 to close out the regular season. The Hawkeyes have won 3 straight games. Iowa is 7-5 ATS and the total is 8-4 this season. The Hawkeyes were 3 point underdogs against Nebraska and the total was 47.
Iowa is outscoring teams 27-19 this season. Iowa is 11th in points allowed nationally. The Hawkeyes are averaging 389.2 total yards (#81 nationally) per game, including 188.8 rushing yards (#43 nationally) and 200.4 passing yards (#94 nationally) per game. On defense Iowa is allowing 303.2 yards per game, including 182.4 passing yards and 120.8 rushing yards. The Hawkeyes are in the top 11 nationally in all three categories. Iowa is +1 in turnovers with 19 takeaways. The Hawkeyes are 87/197 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 73/199. Iowa is 39/50 scoring in the red zone with 26 touchdowns, and opponents are 22/26 with 13 touchdowns. The Hawkeyes average 35 penalty yards per game and opponents are averaging 42. Iowa has forced 20 sacks and allowed 12 this season. Iowa has five defensive or special teams touchdowns this season, and has allowed one.
Iowa quarterback Jake Rudock has completed 60.2% of his passes for 2,281 yards with 18 touchdowns and 12 interceptions, along with 62 carries for 225 yards and 5 touchdowns. He is probable with a knee injury. If he can’t go, back-up C,J, Beathard has thrown for 124 yards and an interception, but the does have 2 rushing touchdowns.
Running back Mark Weisman has 209 carries, 938 yards and 7 touchdowns, along with 5 catches. Damon Bullock has 115 carries for 467 yards and a touchdown, along with 18 catches for 168 yards and a touchdown. Jordan Canzeri has 67 carries for 447 yards and 2 touchdowns, along with 4 catches for 61 yards. Fullbacks Adam Cox and Macon Plewa are both questionable. Running back Michael Malloy is out indefinitely with an illness,
Receiver Kevonte Martin-Manley has 39 catches for 384 yards and 4 touchdowns. He also has two punt returns for touchdowns. Tavaun Smith has 34 catches for 310 yards and a touchdown. Damond Powell has 12 catches for 291 yards and 2 touchdowns. Jacob Hillyer has only 9 catches, but 2 of them went for touchdowns. Tight end C.J. Fiedorowicz has 26 catches for 253 yards and 6 touchdowns. Jake Duzey has 16 catches for 212 yards and 2 touchdowns,
LSU is coached by Les Miles. The Tigers have road losses at Georgia 44-41, Ole Miss 27-24, and Alabama 38-17. LSU has a win over TCU in Arlington, Texas, plus home wins over UAB 56-17, Kent State 45-13, Auburn 35-21, Florida 17-6, Furman 48-16, Texas A&M 34-10, and Arkansas 31-27 in the last game of the regular season. The Tigers have a road win over Mississippi State 59-26. LSU has won 2 straight games. The Tigers are 5-6-1 ATS and the total is 9-3 this season. LSU was a 28 point favorite against Arkansas and the total was 54.5.
LSU is outscoring teams 37-23 this season. The Tigers are #21 in scoring and #30 in points allowed nationally. LSU is averaging 465.9 yards per game on offense, including 265.1 passing and 200.8 rushing yards. The Tigers are #34 or better in all three categories nationally. On defense, LSU is allowing 349.7 yards per game including 200.8 passing and 148.8 rushing. The Tigers are #20 in total offense, #18 in pass defense, and #44 in rush defense. LSU is -2 in turnovers with 18 giveaways. The Tigers average 57 penalty yards per game, and opponents average 43. LSU is 85/149 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 75/188. The Tigers have forced 24 sacks and allowed 21. LSU is 45/54 scoring in the red zone with 35 touchdowns, and opponents are 33/39 with 19 touchdowns. LSU has allowed a kick return for a touchdown, plus a pick six. The Tigers have one fumble return for a touchdown.
LSU quarterback Zach Mettenberger tore his ACL in the Arkansas game. Anthony Jennings took over for Mettenberger. Jennings has thrown for 99 yards with a touchdown, and has 49 rushing yards and a touchdown. Mettenberger had thrown for 3,082 yards with 22 touchdowns and 8 interceptions.
Running back Jeremy Hill has 175 carries for 1,185 yards and 18 catches for 181 yards. Terrence McGee has 79 carries for 614 yards and 8 touchdowns, along with 6 catches for 49 yards. Alfred Blue has 64 catches for 317 yards and a touchdown, along with 4 catches for 45 yards. Kenny Hilliard has 67 carries for 307 yards and 7 touchdowns. J.C. Copeland has 3 touchdown runs.
Receiver Jarvis Landry has 75 catches for 1,172 yards and 10 touchdowns. Odell Beckham has 57 catches for 1,117 yards and 8 touchdowns, plus 58 rushing yards. He is probable with a hip injury. Travin Dural and Kadron Boone each have two touchdown catches. Two little used receivers Armand Williams and Avery Peterson are out for the season.
Iowa is 4-1 in bowl games and in January, 5-2 in neutral site games, 7-3 overall, 4-9 after a cover, 6-15 after a straight up win, 2-5 after allowing less than 20 points, 1-4 after passing for 170 yards or less, and 1-5 after a straight up win of 20 points or more.
LSU is 1-3-1 after rushing for 200 yards or more, 1-4 overall, 1-5-1 after failing to cover, and after a straight up win.
Iowa has a really strong defense, but struggles on offense. Normally, it is a pretty safe bet to take a quicker SEC team against a Big Ten team. However, with an inexperienced quarterback Iowa has a better shot. The Tigers still have a ton of talent on offense even without Mettenberger, and the defense is strong too. I like LSU to win.