College Football ATS Picks: #9 Clemson Tigers at Maryland Terrapins
#9 Clemson Tigers at Maryland Terrapins
Byrd Stadium – College Park, Maryland
Saturday, October 26, 2013, 3:30 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN
Opening Line: Clemson -13
Current Line: Clemson -16 1/2
Opening Total: 62
Current Total: 58 1/2
Opening Money Line: Clemson -490 / Maryland +390
Current Money Line: Clemson -720 / Maryland +510
There are losses and then there are devastating losses. The 6-1 Clemson Tigers suffered the latter last week when they were curb stomped 51-14 by the Florida State Seminoles. Before that game, Clemson had dreams of not only an ACC title but perhaps a national title, but now the Tigers need lots of help for either of those to occur. The Tigers are 4-1 in the ACC Atlantic and look to rebound as they travel to the 5-2 Maryland Terrapins who are 1-2 in the Atlantic Division. Clemson leads the series 33-26-2 against Maryland including 15-13-2 in College Park. Clemson has won 3 straight against Maryland including 45-10 at Clemson last year.
Clemson is coached by Dabo Swinney. The Tigers have home wins over Georgia 38-35, South Carolina State 52-13, Wake Forest 56-7 and against Boston College 24-14. Clemson also has road wins at North Carolina State 26-14 and at Syracuse 49-14. The Tigers are 3-4 ATS and the total is 4-3 this season. Clemson was a 5 point underdog against Florida State and the total was 63.
Clemson was shell shocked early against Florida State and the Tigers found themselves down 17-0 in the first quarter. The Seminoles scored their second touchdown on a 37 yard fumble recovery. Clemson got on the board late in the first to make it 17-7, but Florida State would score 34 unanswered points to go up 51-7 in the fourth. The Tigers added a late touchdown to make the final 51-14 that was notable only because it put the game over the 63 point total. The normally explosive Clemson offense was held largely in check as FSU held them to 326 total yards including 203 passing yards. The Seminoles had 565 total yards including 444 passing yards. The game featured 19 combined penalties for over 200 yards. Clemson had 4 turnovers and FSU had one.
Clemson is outscoring teams 37-21 this season. Clemson is 26th or better nationally in both categories. The Tigers are averaging 487.6 yards per game including 165.7 rushing yards and 321.9 passing yards. Clemson is #17 in passing and #22 in total offense nationally. On defense, Clemson is allowing 376.3 total yards per game including 223.3 passing and 153 rushing. The Tigers are +6 in turnovers with 12 takeaways. The Tigers average 46 penalty yards per game and opponents are averaging 58. Clemson is 61/136 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 40/123. Clemson has forced 27 sacks but has allowed 17 this season. The Tigers are 21/24 scoring in the red zone with 19 touchdowns, and opponents are 13/17 with 10 touchdowns. Clemson has 2 pick sixes and a fumble return for a touchdown this season and has allowed one fumble return for a touchdown.
Quarterback Tajh Boyd has completed 63.1% of his passes for 1,939 yards with 16 touchdowns and 4 picks, along with 80 carries for 195 yards and 5 touchdowns. Back-up Cole Stoudt has thrown for 287 yards with 4 touchdowns and no interceptions, and also has a rushing touchdown. Running back Roderick McDowell has 89 carries for 446 yards, along with 11 catches. D.J. Howard, Zac Brooks and C.J. Davidson will all get a few carries and catches. Davidson has 3 rushing touchdowns. Brooks has 2 rushing touchdowns, and Howard has one. Both Brooks and Howard have receiving touchdowns as well. Receiver Sammy Watkins has 44 catches for 650 yards and 5 touchdowns. Receiver Charone Peak had 8 catches and a touchdown, but he is out for the season with a knee injury. Martavis Bryant, Germone Hopper and Adam Humphries will also get significant catches. Hopper and Humphries both have two touchdown catches while Bryant has 3. Six defensive players and three offensive linemen are listed as questionable or out Saturday.
Maryland is coached by Randy Edsel. The Terrapins have home wins over Florida International 43-10, Old Dominion 47-10, West Virginia 37-0 (in Baltimore), and Virginia 27-26, along with a 32-21 road win at Connecticut. Maryland has losses at Florida State 63-0 and last week at Wake Forest 34-10. The Terrapins are 4-3 ATS and the total is 4-3 this season. Maryland was a 4.5 point favorite at Wake Forest and the total was 52.5.
Wake Forest jumped out to a 24-3 halftime lead against Maryland. Maryland pulled to within 24-10 midway through the third but would not score again. The Demon Deacons went on to win 34-10. Wake Forest had 307 total yards including 260 passing yards and just 16 first downs. Maryland had 383 total yards including 344 passing yards. The Terrapins had 3 turnovers and Wake Forest had none.
Maryland is outscoring teams 28-23 this season. The Terrapins are averaging 439.9 yards per game including 280.6 passing yards and 159.3 rushing yards per game. Maryland is allowing 355.7 yards per game on defense including 230.7 passing yards and 125 rushing yards per game. The Terrapins are #28 in total defense nationally and #27 against the rush. Maryland is -2 in turnovers with 13 takeaways. Maryland averages 35 penalty yards per game and opponents are averaging 39. The Terps are 34/107 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 39/116. Maryland has forced 19 sacks this season and allowed 12. Maryland is 23/27 scoring in the red zone with 12 touchdowns and opponents are 23/24 with 15 touchdowns. The Terrapins have 2 pick sixes this season.
Maryland quarterback C.J. Brown is 87/137 passing (63.5%) for 1,262 yards with 7 touchdowns and 3 picks. He also has 56 carries for 251 yards and 6 touchdowns. He will miss the Clemson game with an upper body injury. Back-up quarterback Caleb Rowe will start. He has thrown for 702 yards with 2 touchdowns and an interception. Running back Brandon Ross has 91 carries, 458 yards and 4 touchdowns, along with 14 catches for 162 yards. Albert Reid has 37 carries for 193 yards and a touchdown, along with a catch.
The top two receivers for the Terrapins are out for the season with leg injuries. Stefon Diggs and Deon Long combined for 66 receptions, over 1,000 yards and 4 touchdowns. Lavern Jacobs has 13 catches, 245 yards and a touchdown. Brandon Ross has 14 catches for 162 yards. Dave Stinebaugh has 11 catches for 162 yards and 2 touchdowns. Twenty Terrapins are listed as questionable, doubtful or out, including 9 defensive players and 5 receivers and tight ends.
Clemson is 6-1 ATS in road games, 5-1 after allowing 40 points or more, 4-1 against teams with winning home records, 8-3 in October, 10-4 in ACC games, 9-4 after allowing 450 total yards or more, 1-4 on grass and 1-5 against teams with winning records. Six of the last seven games in this series have gone under the total.
Maryland is 4-1 ATS at home, 5-2 on grass, 18-8 after rushing for less than 100 yards, 8-18 after a straight up loss of 20 points or more, 4-10 after scoring 20 points or less, 4-13 in ACC games, 1-4 after failing to cover and after passing for more than 280 yards, 3-14 after a straight up loss, and 0-4 in October. The under is 5-2 in the last seven in College Park in this series.
Clemson might suffer a hangover after getting demolished by Florida State last week, but I think the opposite happens. I see the Tigers coming out angry and beating up on a Maryland team decimated by injuries.