2016 NCAA Tournament
West Region – Second Round
#12 Yale Bulldogs vs #4 Duke Blue Devils
Dunkin’ Donuts Center – Providence, Rhode Island
Saturday, March 19, 2016, 2:40 pm Eastern, TV: CBS
Opening Line: Duke -6
Current Line: Duke -6 (-105)
Opening Total: 146
Current Total: 146
Opening Money Line: Duke -260 / Yale +220
Current Money Line: Duke -260 / Yale +220
The 23-6 Yale Bulldogs pulled off one of the first upsets of a wild and thrilling first round when the #12 seed beat #5 seed Baylor 79-75 in the West region first round Thursday in Providence. It was the first ever tournament win for the Bulldogs and first appearance since 1962.
Next up for the Bulldogs is the #4 Duke Blue Devils in the second round Saturday in Providence. Duke survived a tough challenge from #13 UNC-Wilmington with a 93-85 win Thursday. The winner between Duke and Yale will advance to the Sweet 16 next week in Anaheim to face the winner of #1 seed Oregon and #8 St. Joseph’s.
Duke leads the series against Yale 4-0. The Blue Devils beat Yale in Durham earlier this season in November 80-61. The Bulldogs led that game by 9 points in the first half, but the Blue Devils simply had too much for them. Before that game, the teams hadn’t played since 1973.
Yale is coached by James Jones. The Bulldogs won the Ivy League with a 13-1 record. Yale has road losses at SMU, Duke, Albany, Illinois, USC, and Princeton. The Bulldogs have won six straight games. Yale has a home win over Vermont, and a road win at Lehigh. In conference, Yale has a home win over Princeton, and swept every other team in the Ivy. Only Princeton and Columbia had winning records besides Yale. The Bulldogs are 0-2 against tournament teams. Yale is 12-6-2 ATS and the total is 12-8 this season. The Bulldogs were 5.5 point underdogs against Baylor and the total was 136.5.
Duke was tied for fifth in the ACC with Notre Dame at 11-7. The Blue Devils lost to Notre Dame in the ACC quarterfinals 84-79. Since 1984, Duke has played in the NCAA Tournament every year except for 1995. The Blue Devils have played in 12 Final Fours in that stretch with five national titles.
Duke is coached by Mike Krzyzewski. The Blue Devils have neutral site losses to Kentucky in Chicago and Utah in New York and Notre Dame in the ACC Tournament. Duke has road losses at Clemson, Miami, Louisville and Pittsburgh, along with home losses to Notre Dame, Syracuse, and North Carolina. The Blue Devils have neutral site wins over VCU and Georgetown in New York and NC State in the ACC Tournament, plus road wins at Boston College, Wake Forest, North Carolina State, Georgia Tech, and North Carolina. Duke has home wins over Siena, Yale, Utah State, Indiana, Buffalo, Long Beach State, Virginia Tech, NC State, Louisville, Virginia, Florida State, and Wake Forest. The Blue Devils are 6-8 against NCAA Tournament teams this season. Duke is 13-18-2 ATS and the total is 15-18 this season. The Blue Devils were 10 point favorites against UNC-Wilmington and the total was 154.
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Yale is outscoring teams 75-63 this season. The Bulldogs are #14 in points allowed nationally. Yale is shooting 47.1% from the field and 37.4% from 3 point range. The Bulldogs make 66.4% of their free throws. Opponents are shooting 40.7% from the field and 31.6% from 3 point range. Yale averages 40.4 rebounds per game and opponents average 25.6 rebounds per game. The Bulldogs are #1 nationally in rebounds allowed and #20 in rebounding. Yale averages 15.2 assists, 13.4 turnovers, 5.8 steals and 4.6 blocks per game. Opponents average 15.2 assists, 12.6 turnovers, 5.4 steals and 4.4 blocks per game.
Makai Mason averages15.8 points, 2.6 rebounds and 3.7 assists per game. Justin Sears averages 15.8 points, 7.5 rebounds, 2.8 assists and 1.8 blocks per game. Brandon Sherrod averages 12.5 points, 7.1 rebounds, and 1.2 assists per game. Team captain Jack Montague was kicked off the team for violating team rules. He averaged 9.7 points, 2.5 rebounds, 3 assists and 1.1 steals per game. Nick Victor averages 7 points, 7.3 rebounds, 2.6 assists and 1.3 blocks per game. Sam Downey, Anthony Dallier, and Khaliq Ghani will also get minutes in the rotation.
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Duke is outscoring teams 82-72 this season. The Blue Devils are #17 nationally in scoring. Duke is shooting 45.9% from the field and 38.7% from 3 point range. The Blue Devils are #22 in three point shooting nationally. Duke makes 72.2% of their free throws. Opponents are shooting 44.5% from the field and 33.9% from 3 point range. Duke averages 36.3 rebounds per game and opponents average 33.4 per game. The Blue Devils average 13 assists, 9.6 turnovers, 6 steals and 4.3 blocks per game. Opponents average 13.8 assists, 11.7 turnovers, 4.3 steals and 3.2 blocks per game.
Grayson Allen averages 21.6 points, 4.5 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 1.3 steals per game. Brandon Ingram averages 16.9 points, 6.8 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 1.1 steals and 1.4 blocks per game. Luke Kennard averages 11.5 points, 3.2 rebounds and 1.4 blocks per game. Matt Jones averages 11.2 points, 2.6 rebounds, 2.4 assists and 1 steal per game. Marshall Plumlee averages 8.2 points, 8.7 rebounds, 1.1 assists and 1.5 steals per game. Derryck Thornton averages 7.8 points, 2.1 rebounds and 2.5 assists per game. Amile Jefferson is out indefinitely with a foot injury.
Yale is 4-1-1 ATS in Saturday games, 10-3-1 overall, 6-2-1 after a cover, 15-5-3 against teams with winning records, 15-5-1 in neutral site games, 8-3-2 in non-conference games, 34-15-4 after a straight up win, and 2-5 against ACC teams.
Duke is 5-0 ATS against Ivy League teams, 6-1 in NCAA Tournament games, 2-5-1 after scoring more than 90 points, 0-3-1 in Saturday games and after a straight up win, 0-5 after failing to cover, 0-4 against teams with winning records, 0-6 overall and 0-7 in neutral site games.
Yale played Duke tough in the first half in the first meeting this season. I think the Bulldogs are a better team now though and I expect this game to be a lot closer. I don’t know if Yale can pull off the upset, but I think it will come down to the wire.