College Basketball Pac 12 Picks: Colorado Buffaloes at Arizona St Sun Devils
Colorado Buffaloes at Arizona State Sun Devils
Sunday, January 6, 2013, 8:00 pm Eastern, TV: Pac 12 Network
Wells Fargo Arena – Tempe, Arizona
Opening Line: Colorado -2
Current Line: Colorado -1 1/2
Opening Total: 133
Current Total: 133
Opening Money Line: Colorado -140 / Arizona St +120
Current Money Line: Colorado -125 / Arizona St +105
The Pac 12 got off to a good start in non-conference play with 6 teams with a 10-3 record or better. Two of those teams meet Sunday night in Tempe, as the 10-3 Colorado Buffaloes take on the 12-2 Arizona St Sun Devils. This is the seventh meeting between the teams. Colorado leads the series 4-2, after sweeping both games last season in their first year in the Pac 12.
The Buffaloes, coached by Tad Boyle, lost their Pac 12 opener Thursday night at Arizona in controversial fashion. With the game tied at 80, Colorado’s Sabatino Chen appeared to hit the game winning 3 pointer at the buzzer, but officials reviewed and said it was still in his hand at the buzzer. Replays seemingly were inconclusive at best. The third ranked and undefeated Wildcats would go on to outscore the Buffaloes 12-3 in overtime to win 92-83. Boyle was livid after the game, understandably, but Colorado had a 78-70 lead with 1:35 to go in the game. The Buffaloes couldn’t hold the lead, regardless of whether that last shot counted or not.
Arizona State, coached by Herb Sendek, won their Pac 12 opener Wednesday night at home against the 8-6 Utah Utes 55-54 in overtime. Neither team shot very well, needless to say. ASU shot 37% from the field and Utah shot 34.5%. Sun Devil freshman guard Jahii Carson hit the game tying 3 pointer in regulation to send it into overtime and also made the game winning lay-up in overtime.
Colorado has other losses at Wyoming and Kansas. The Buffaloes have key wins over Dayton, Baylor and Murray St in a tournament in Charleston, at home against Air Force and Colorado St, along with a road win at Fresno St. Colorado is 8-3 ATS and the total is 3-1 this season.
Arizona St has losses to Creighton in a tournament in Las Vegas, and home to DePaul. The Sun Devils have won 4 straight games since the Depaul loss. ASU has key wins over Arkansas in Las Vegas, Cornell, and Texas Tech.Arizona St is 5-4 ATS and the total is 1-0 this season.
Colorado is outscoring teams 74-67 this season. The Buffaloes are shooting 47.3% from the field and 40.4% from 3 point range. Colorado is #34 in field goal percentage and #15 in three point shooting. The Buffaloes make 65.7% of their free throws, which is #257 in the country out of 347 teams. Colorado is 39th nationally in rebounding with 39.3 per game and give up 30.5 to opponents. Buffalo opponents are shooting 39.3% from the field and 32.9% from 3 point range. Colorado is averaging 11 assists, 7 steals, 4 blocks, and 15 turnovers per game.
Colorado guard Askia Booker averages 15.1 points, 3.6 rebounds, 2.5 assists, and 1.3 steals per game. Spencer Dinwiddie averages 14.2 points, 4.2 rebounds, 2.7 assists, and 1.1 steals per game. Josh Scott averages 13.3 points and 5.8 rebounds per game. Andre Roberson averages 11.8 points, 12 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 2.1 steals, and 1.4 blocks per game. Xavier Johnson averages 6.8 points and 3.8 rebounds. Chen averages 4.9 points, 2 rebounds and 1.4 assists. Jeremy Adams, Xavier Talton, Shane Harris-Tunks and Eli Stalzer make up the rest of the rotation, but none play more than 12 minutes a game.
Arizona St is outscoring teams 74-64 this season. The Sun Devils are shooting 46.4% from the field and 34% from 3 point range. Arizona St is #68 in scoring and #53 in field goal percentage. ASU makes 62.7% of their free throws. ASU is #315 in the country in free throw percentage. The Sun Devils average 38.1 rebounds per games and gives up 33.4. ASU opponents are shooting 38.6% from the field and 33.6% from 3 point range. The Sun Devils average 16 assists, 8 steals, 8 blocks, and 13 turnovers a game.
Carson averages 17.5 points, 3 rebounds, and 5.6 assists and 1.1 steals per game. Guard-forward Carrick Felix averages 14.8 points, 7.9 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 1.8 steals, and 1.5 blocks per game. Guard Evan Gordon averages 10.6 points, 3.4 rebounds, 2.6 assists, and 1.6 steals per game. Center Jordan Bachynski has 10.1 points, 7.1 rebounds, and 4.3 blocks a game. Forward Jonathan Gilling averages 9.4 points, 6.9 rebounds, 2.9 assists, and 1.1 steals per game. Chris Colvin and Eric Jacobsen will also see significant minutes in the rotation. Guard Calaen Robinson is out for the season for undisclosed reasons.
Colorado is 4-0 ATS in Sunday games, and against Pac 12 teams, 4-1 after a cover, 8-2 overall, 11-3 against teams winning records, 10-3 against teams with a winning percentage above .600, 6-2 after a straight up loss, 8-3 in road games, and against teams with winning home records.
Arizona St is 3-0-1 ATS after a cover, 13-28 against teams with a winning percentage over .600, 3-7-1 in Pac 12 games, and 8-22 after a straight up win.
This game should be close, but Colorado is more battle tested. The Buffaloes took Arizona to the limit on Thursday, and I think Colorado will be angry. The buffs win a close game on the road.
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