College Basketball Handicapping Picks: Oklahoma State Cowboys at Baylor Bears
Oklahoma State Cowboys at Baylor Bears
Ferrell Center – Waco, Texas
Monday, February 17, 2014, 9:00 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN
Opening Line: Baylor -4
Current Line: Baylor -5 1/2
Opening Total: 142 1/2
Current Total: 143 1/2
Opening Money Line: Baylor -185 / Oklahoma State +160
Current Money Line: Baylor -235 / Oklahoma State +195
At one point this season both Oklahoma State and Baylor were in the top 10 in the AP poll. However, both teams are now 16-9 overall and 4-8 in the Big 12. The two schools are now tied fro 8th in the conference and in serious jeopardy of missing the NCAA tournament. Oklahoma State has lost six straight games and 7 of the last 8. Baylor has won 2 straight games after losing 7 of the previous 8.
Oklahoma State leads the series against Baylor 52-21, including 15-15 in Waco. Baylor has beaten Oklahoma State 7 straight times in Waco. The Bears beat the Cowboys 76-70 in Stillwater February 1. It was the second game in OSU’s current six game losing streak.
Oklahoma State is coached by Travis Ford. The Cowboys have losses to Memphis in a tournament in Orlando, at Kansas State, at Kansas, Oklahoma twice (including 77-74 Saturday in Stillwater), Baylor, Iowa State Texas Tech and at Texas. OSU has key wins over Memphis at home, at South Florida, over Purdue and Butler in the tournament in Orlando, South Carolina in Stillwater, Louisiana Tech in Oklahoma City, Colorado in Las Vegas, Texas, West Virginia twice, and TCU. The Cowboys are 8-13 ATS and the total is 13-8 this season.
OSU is outscoring teams 82-70 this season. The Cowboys are #15 in scoring nationally. Oklahoma State shoots 47.2% from the field and 36.4% from 3 point range. The Cowboys are #48 in field goal percentage. OSU makes 71.4% of their free throws. Cowboy opponents are shooting 40.2% from the field and 32.9% from 3 point range. OSU is #47 in field goal defense nationally. The Cowboys are averaging 36.8 rebounds a game and allowing 33.8. OSU is #297 nationally out of 351 teams in rebounds allowed. Oklahoma State averages 14 assists, 7.9 steals, 5.5 blocks, and 10.6 turnovers per game, and opponents average 10.4 assists, 6.4 steals, 3.5 blocks, and 14.5 turnovers per game.
OSU guard Marcus Smart was suspended for 3 games for getting into a physical altercation with a Texas Tech fan in Lubbock last weekend. This is the third game of that suspension. Smart averages 17.5 points, 5.7 rebounds, 4.3 assists, and 2.3 steals a game. Guard Markel Brown averages 17 points, 5.6 rebounds, 2.6 assists, and 1 block per game. Forward Le’Bryan Nash averages 14.8 points, 6 rebounds, and 1.4 assists per game. Guard Phil Forte III averages 12.3 points, 1.6 rebounds and 1.2 assists per game. Guard-forward Brian Williams averages 7.2 points, 4 rebounds, 1 assist, and 1.1 steals per game. Guard Stevie Clark averaged 5.3 points, 1.6 rebounds, 3.3 assists, and 1.2 steals a game. He was kicked off the team after his second arrest in a month. Forward-center Kamari Murphy averages 6.1 points, 6.1 rebounds, and 1.3 blocks per game. Forward-Center Michael Cobbins is out for the season with a broken foot. He averages 4.5 points, 4.3 rebounds and 1.5 blocks per game.
Baylor is coached by Scott Drew. The Bears have losses to Syracuse in the Maui Invitational, road losses at Iowa State, Texas Tech, Kansas and Oklahoma and home losses to Oklahoma, Texas, West Virginia and Kansas. Baylor has key wins over Colorado in Dallas, South Carolina, Dayton in Maui, Kentucky in Arlington, TX, Oral Roberts, TCU twice, Oklahoma State ans Saturday against Kansas State 87-73 in double overtime. Baylor went 12-1 in non-conference play. The Bears are 7-10-1 ATS and the total is 10-7 this season.
Baylor is outscoring teams 75-68 this season. The Bears are shooting 46.3% from the field and 40.7% from 3 point range. Baylor is #9 in three point shooting. The Bears are #298 nationally out of 351 teams in free throw shooting making 65.8% from the line. Baylor opponents are shooting 42.4% from the field and 35.2% from 3 point range. The Bears average 38.6 rebounds per game and opponents average 28 per game. Baylor is #33 in rebounding and #37 in rebounds allowed nationally. The Bears average 15.5 assists, 12.8 turnovers, 5.3 steals and 5.3 blocks per game. Opponents average 14.6 assists, 10.7 turnovers, 5.6 steals and 3 blocks per game.
Baylor forward Cory Jefferson averages 12.3 points, 7.8 rebounds and 1.4 blocks per game. Guard Brady Heslip averages 11.9 points and 1.2 rebounds per game. Center Isaiah Austin averages 10.6 points, 5.5 rebounds, 1.3 assists, and 2.8 blocks per game. Guard Kenny Chery averages 9.8 points, 2.2 rebounds and 4.7 assists per game. He is questionable with an ankle injury. Forward Taurean Prince averages 7.7 points and 3.1 rebounds per game. Forward Rico Gathers averages 8 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 1 steal per game. Gary Franklin, Royce O’Neale, and Ish Wainwright will also get significant minutes in the rotation. Guard Allerik Freeman is out indefinitely with a broken hand, and hasn’t played yet this season.
Oklahoma State is 7-19 ATS agaisnt teams with winning home records, 9-25 against tams with winning records, 3-9 in Monday games, 1-9 in road games, 0-7 overall and in Big 12 games, 0-6 after a straight up loss and after failing to cover. The over is 5-2 in the last 7 games in Waco in the series. The underdog has covered 4 of the last 5 in the series.
Baylor is 5-0 ATS against teams with losing road records, 12-25 after a cover, 2-5-1 against teams with winning records, 1-3-1 in Monday games, 2-6 after a straight up win, and 1-4 at home. The home team is 12-3 ATS in the last 15 in this series. The Bears have covered 4 straight times against the Cowboys overall and 7 straight times in Waco.
Until the Kansas State win, Baylor had lost 4 straight home games. Both of these teams need a win badly, but Oklahoma State really needs to stop the bleeding. Baylor upset the Cowboys in Stillwater, and i think the Cowboys return the favor in Waco.