Maddux Sports Blog

The Dodgers look to have a live arm to help with the problems at the bottom of their rotation. They rushed their next phenom, Clayton Kershaw, into the lineup straight from Double-A on Sunday. They needed his arm because they have no others - they cut Esteban Loaiza on Saturday because he couldn’t get it done anymore, and they hadn’t found anyone better. They are pretty desperate right now, too - they play 17 straight without a rest, so they will need five arms to keep the Diamondbacks within sight. Kershaw was the first high schooler chosen in the 2006 draft when he went to the Dodgers seventh overall. He was the national player of the year as a high school senior. The 20 year old was 0-3 in Double-A, but he wasn’t getting much run support. His ERA was only 2.28, and the most eye-opening number was his 47 Ks in 43 innings. He has a solid fastball, a nasty curve that drops more than 20 mph from that fastball, and a circle change. His first appearance in the pros was a decent one. He lasted six innings, striking out seven with just one walk. He allowed five hits and two earned runs. He didn’t get a decision, but his new team did beat the Cards. On Tuesday I’m going to take a look at how to deal with these phenoms as they come along.

The biggest single day of car racing of the year didn’t disappoint. Lewis Hamilton won an exciting F1 race in Monte Carlo to start off the day. Scott Dixon followed it up with win in the Indy 500. That result was sweet justice for him - he was the fastest car all month and he stayed out of trouble in a race that was far from accident-free. The biggest non-story of the day was Danica Patrick - she ended up 22nd when she was taken out in pit lane by Ryan Briscoe. The best part was that she looked like she was going to beat Briscoe senseless. The nigh ended with a win by Kasey Kahne in the longest NASCAR race of the year, the Coca Cola 600. As is so often the case, Tony Stewart was the biggest story - he should have won, but he gave up his lead with three laps left when he bumped the wall and got a flat tire.

The Belmont is still two weeks away, but there is no end of intrigue on that front. Big Brown has a small crack in his left front foot. He’s missed two days of training and could miss three more. He’s getting the best possible care, and it’s pretty likely that he’ll be just fine by race time. More interestingly, there are rumors out there that Kent Desormeaux’s agent is angling to get his charge the mount on Casino Drive in the Belmont. The rider of that horse will be named on Wednesday. It seems almost impossible that this would be true sine Desormeaux is on Big Brown, but it opens up a million different possibilities for conspiracy theorists.

Joakim Noah got arrested in Gainesville for drinking in public and marijuana possession. Also, Noah is an idiot.

Phil Mickelson won this weekend with a spectacular wedge shot on the 72nd hole to set up winning birdie putt. Now all he has to do is put together a knockout blow like that against Tiger Woods instead of Rod Pampling.

Almost nobody cares about American open wheel racing outside of one weekend each year. That weekend is here, though, so it is time to pay attention. Even if you aren’t a fan of Indy racing you’ll probably catch a minute or two of the Indy 500 on TV on Sunday. If you’re going to watch then you might as well bet on it, so here’s a look at the big names in the race and their betting prospects.

Scott Dixon (3/1) - Dixon earned the pole, so he is the favorite by a comfortable margin. He has had a good year so far with a win and two thirds in five races. He’s also been one of the more consistent drivers on the circuit the last three years, finishing second in the standings last year and fourth the year before. He’s never won at Indy, but he has been close. He was second last year and fourth the year before. He started fourth both years, so he is a row farther forward, and his car is running perhaps better than ever. THe pole has been a decent place to start from recently - Sam Hornish Jr. won from there is 2006, and so did Buddy Rice in 2004.

Helio Castroneves (9/2) - I never thought I would say something like this, but Castroneves has probably been bet down a bit because he is a good dancer. He won Dancing with the Stars to gain international fame outside of the world of car racing. He’s more than just a pair of fancy feet, though. He’s currently leading the point standings for the ciruit with two second place finishes and two fourth. He’s also a two time winner of this race, though the last of those came in 2002. Castroneves will certainly be a big part of this race, but I’m not convinced that these odds make him much of a value pick - he’s more likely to be close than in front at the checkered flag.

Dan Wheldon (9/2) - The man with the famously bad temper won this race in 2005, and he comes into this year’s version of a win in Kansas. He’s had a rough time of it the last two years at Indy, but his car is faster this year, and he seems more determined than ever. He could certainly win.

Tony Kanaan (5/1) - Sooner or later this Brazilian is going to win an Indy 500. He’s too good not to. He’s held a lead at some point in each of the last five races in Indianapolis, but he’s always found problems and has only found the podium twice in that time. He’s been solid this year, with a second in Kansas and two other top five finishes.

Danica Patrick (10/1) - She’s the biggest name in Indy racing, but she isn’t the biggest bargain. She has a win this year (finally), but her chances of winning aren’t well reflected by these odds. Her car was solid in qualifying, but it was definitely a step below the best. She hasn’t done particularly well here, with back-to-back 8th place finishes. There is a good chance she will be in the picture, but I would confidently say that she would win less than one in ten times this race was run. That doesn’t make her a good bet. She’d look pretty good with a milk mustache if she did win, though.

There are a couple big events happening this weekend. We’ll take a look at the Indy 500 tomorrow, and look at the French Open today:

Men’s Draw

I don’t see this half of the tournament being particularly competitive. There is always the chance that someone could break through - Nikolay Davydenko, for example. It seems by far more likely, though, that one of these three men will win it. If I were forced to pick, I would predict that for the third straight year Nadal would beat Federer in the final. Not original, but fairly safe:

Rafael Nadal - You can certainly pick against the Spaniard if you want to, but you had better have a good reason for doing so. He’s won the last three French Opens, and he has given us little reason to believe that he won’t win a fourth. It looked questionable a couple of weeks ago when he got knocked out of the Rome Masters on clay in the second round. He rebounded very nicely by winning Hamburg the next week, though, and he beat both Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic to do so. Nadal has won 108 of his last 110 on clay. When he is at his best he is unbeatable, and he can be a long way from his best and still be just fine. His dominance is obvious in the odds - Bodog has him as a -150 favorite to win it all. Even if you don’t think he can win four in a row like only Bjorn Borg has done before him, you can still play him in the early rounds with full confidence. The payoffs will be tiny for those games, but they can be handy when played in a parlay.

Roger Federer - He may be the best tennis player in the world, but his dominance doesn’t extend to this surface. It’s not like he’s terrible - he has made the last two finals, and has only lost to Nadal in the last three years. It’s just that he doesn’t have the game to beat Nadal if the Spaniard is anywhere near his best. There’s no need to feel sorry for Federer, of course - he has won the last five at Wimbledon and has been the U.S. Open champ the last four years. Federer is tougher to deal with than in recent years because he hasn’t been playing particularly well this year. He has been struggling with illness and generally lethargic, unfocused play. He seems to have sorted things out recently, though - he looked like his usual ferocious self en route to the Hamburg final. I feel nervous about Federer in later rounds, but he can again be used with full comfort early on.

Novak Djokovic - Djokovic reminds me in at least one way of Andre Agassi - he would have been the best player in the world if it weren’t for Pete Sampras. Djokovic is similarly stuck behind Nadal and Federer, but he is closing the gap nicely. He has made at least the semis in each of the last four grand slam tournaments, and he is coming off his first major at the Australian. His problem is that he is on the same side of the draw as Nadal, so he will face a very tough semifinal. He lost to Nadal at Hamburg, and I suspect that that will happen again here. My confidence is equally high, though, that he will make that semifinal. His clay form is excellent - he won Rome and lost in the semis at Hamburg.

Women’s Draw

Unlike the men’s side, the women are a perplexing mess. That’s because Justine Henin has won the last three versions of the tournament with relative ease, but she returned earlier this month. That throws the door wide open.

Maria Sharapova - She’s the closest thing to a favorite in the field. She won the Australian Open this year, and she has only lost twice all year. She made it as far as the semifinals last year, and she has a relatively kind path to the final this year since she became the number one seed when Henin retired. There are a couple of reasons I am not more excited about her prospects, though. She hasn’t played nearly as well at this tournament historically than in the other three majors. More significantly, she pulled out of Rome with a calf injury, so there are questions both about her health and her preparedness for this surface.

Ana Ivanovic - The second seed is virtually anonymous, but she looks pretty darned good here. She made the finals in the French last year, and in the Australian earlier this year. She’s playing fairly well this year, and she has a game well suited to this situation. There are literally ten or a dozen women who could win this tournament without being a surprise, but I like this Serbian as much as anyone.

Jelena Jankovic - Her seasoning is questionable as she has never reached a grand slam final. What can’t be questioned, though, is her current form. She won in Rome - the most significant French Open prep - and she beat Serena Williams pretty convincingly on the way. She made the semifinal here last year, and she had also won Rome last year,too, so she likes the surface. She’s not the most consistent player in the world, though, so I hesitate to trust her here.

Serena Williams - She is absolutely an enigma, but you can never disregard her if she is entered in a tournament. We can’t be sure how her health is because she withdrew from the quarterfinals at Rome with a back problem. She says she is fine, though. At the French last year she won her first four matches with ridiculous ease, and then played one of the worst matches I have ever seen to Justine Henin. This isn’t her best major, but she can certainly win it if she decides she wants to. That’s abig if. She is almost always a pass for me these days - it’s too hard to figure out if she will care enough to show up.

Manchester United rules the European soccer world after taking the Champions League final today over Chelsea. If you are North American then chances are pretty good that you don’t care. This was a pretty spectacular game, though, or at least the finish was. They were tied at one after the 90 minutes of regulation and 30 minutes of overtime. That meant that the game and the most prestigious club championship in the world would be decided in the middle of the night in Moscow in the puring rain by penalty kicks. Cristiano Ronaldo, Man U’s top scoring threat and one of the top players in the world, missed his kick and all looked lost. All Chelsea captain John Terry had to do was score and they won. As he approached the ball he slipped and fell, and the ball sailed harmlessly wide of the net. Man U went on to win in extra kicks, and Terry, one of the elder statesmen of English soccer, looked like he was going to hang himself with his consolation medal. You don’t have to like soccer to enjoy this - you just have to like human suffering and pure agony.

A guy finishes second in a cheesy reality show and all of a sudden he is too good to practice. We have known for a while that Jason Taylor’s days with the Dolphins were probably numbered. We learned today, though, that it is his doing. While every player on his team except for him are at a voluntary mini-camp he is in New York for media appearances surrounding his dancing career before jetting back to Los Angeles to meet with entertainment execs about his future in the movie business. It seems that he has no intention of going to a mandatory camp next week, either. He says he still loves football, and that he intends to play again next year, but clearly not with Miami. That makes it very interesting to see where he ends up. He had 11 sacks last year and was a Pro Bowler, so he still has lots of game left, and he can help whatever team he joins. I bet he wishes that L.A. still had a team.

Another high priced starter is headed to the bullpen, but compared to Barry Zito this one is a bargain. Dontrelle Willis and his three year, $29 million contract has been a disaster so far in Detroit. He’s been on the DL since April 13, and he struggled to locate the plate before that. He’s apparently been told by Tigers officials that he will return as a reliever when he does make his return. Though putting him in the pen isn’t a terrible idea, it isn’t one that will likely have a long life - the top three starters other than him have a combined record of 6-16 with an ERA over six, so the rotation needs all the help it can get. If Willis shows anything more than a pulse in the bullpen then he and his goofy hat will be starting again soon.

I’ve pretty much written Pedro Martinez off. He’s been hurt, but he is getting closer to a return. That will be delayed now that he has returned home to be with his sick father. That is acceptable, obviously. What is less palatable, though, is all his talk this week that he might retire at the end of the season. Even that would be fine if he weren’t also talking about an eventual comeback as well. I respect Martinez’ game immensely, and I know that he is as talented as anyone when he is right. The guy is just such a mental case, though, and he’s increasingly bizarre. I find it harder and harder to believe that he will ever return to a point where he will be worth trusting with a bet.

Mondays aren’t supposed to be busy days on the sports front, but this one certainly was. Here are five things that caught my eye today:

1. It was covered here by someone else earlier tonight, but I have to touch on Jon Lester again. Impressive on a couple of fronts - Boston having two no-hitters in less than a year, Jason Varitek catching both games, Lester’s story. It would be an even better story if it had have been against a major league team instead of the Triple-A adequate Kansas City Royals. Based on what I wrote here last week I’ll be taking a very close look at Lester next time out.

2. Man, do I ever hate the Spurs. They keep finding a way to win when it matters - mostly by boring their opponents to death. The worst part isn’t that they are still alive, or that New Orleans would have made for a far more interesting series against the Lakers. It’s that San Antonio now has to be considered the favorite to win it all, and especially so if Kobe isn’t at his best. If I have to see Tim Duncan cut down another net I am more than likely to puke.

3. The Red Wings took a couple games off, but they finally showed up today and exerted their total dominance over the Stars. Pittsburgh did the same thing yesterday after their one game holiday. This sets up the most interesting and likely exciting Stanley Cup showdown we have seen in years. I am leaning towards the Penguins, but it could go either way and I wouldn’t be surprised. It takes a lot to get me to watch hockey in June, but this will do it.

4. Andy Roddick pulled out of the French Open today thanks to a shoulder injury. I like the guy and I respect his game, but I couldn’t be happier. He’s lost in the first round the last two years at the French, and I was not at all looking forward to figuring out if he was going to break that bad habit this time around.

5. The NBA draft lottery goes tomorrow night, and as always the stakes are very high for a lot of teams. Derrick Rose is a player to build a team around, and Michael Beasley could ease a lot of woes as well. As much as I hate to admit it, I think I would like to see the Knicks win it most - watching D’Antoni coach Steve Nash for the last few years was a complete pleasure, and watching him and Rose would be no less captivating. I’d also like to see Memphis get the pick - it would be fun to see them struggle with deciding if they should choose the player who best fits them - Beasley - or the player who will sell the most tickets - Rose. Seattle would be fun, too - Durant plus one of these two would make it easy to draw comparisons between the Sonics now and the Penguins a couple of years ago.

Justine Henin retired suddenly yesterday despite the fact that she was number one in the world rankings. A couple of things arise from that. First, it’s sad where we have gotten to as a society of sports watchers - an athletes leaves suddenly and I can’t help but wonder what she was about to be caught doing. That’s probably not the case here, but we can’t help but wonder. Second, there goes one of the easiest bets in tennis. She had won three straight French Opens. The tournament starts in a couple of weeks. She hasn’t been playing well lately, but she still would have been an automatic bet for a few rounds.

Home teams are now 19-1 in the second round. This is truly, historically insane. The books seem to be getting a handle on it, though - the road teams are 3-1 ATS in the last four.

Kobe clearly isn’t very healthy right now. What a waste of an opportunity that would be if he can’t contribute to his fullest for two more rounds. I’m quite convinced that their next series is the de facto championship round.

Sucks to be John Lackey. The Angels’ ace finally gets off the DL and makes his season debut yesterday against the White Sox. He pitches very well - one earned run in seven innings. His team gives him no run support despite the fact that Jose Contreras is pitching, so he leaves a tie game. Then Scot Shields comes out in relief and does his best impression of Eric Gagne - no outs, but a walk and three hits including a grand slam.

I don’t know what is more interesting - that Cleveland starters have now gone more than 43 straight innings without allowing a run (the longest streak in the majors since 1974), or that a 21-19 record is good enough for the Indians to be alone in first in a league that was supposed to be a force to be reckoned with. Either way, the rest of the AL Central, and the AL for that matter, should be very worried now that the Cleveland rotation has remembered how talented it is.

The Marlins have lost three in a row to Cincinnati, and they could be swept tonight. I like a lot of things about the Reds, but a team that wants to be a good one can’t be losing three straight to them. That, combined with the fact that more than a third of their wins this year come against Washington and they are just 2-7 against teams sitting first, second, or third in their division make me think that the feel good story of the Marlins is going to be long forgotten by September.

I can’t believe I am saying this, but other teams could learn from the Rays. They have quietly got their house in very good order - the signed Scott Kazmir to a four year extension yesterday, and they already inked James Shields for four years in January. They have the best record in the AL (an identical mark to the Marlins), but unlike their upstate rivals, their resurgence is not a fluke (resurgence isn’t the right word, because Tampa Bay has never before been good, but you get the point).

1. There are only six guys in the majors with the last name Cabrera, but it seems like there are about 212. Every time I turn around another one is in the news. The latest did it in an impressive way - Cleveland second baseman Asdrubal Cabrera turned just the 14th unassisted triple play in major league history in the second game of a doubleheader against Toronto. He dove to catch a line drive, touched second for out number two, and the tagged Marco Scutaro, the guy who should own a hundred pizza places based on his name alone, to enter history. Troy Tulowitzki had one last season, and the previous unassisted play was in 2000.

2. That wasn’t the only crazy thing to happen in that game. I don’t know Cliff Lee, but I can only imagine that he is one angry dude right now. The ridiculously hot ace threw nine scoreless innings in that game to lower his already almost non-existent 0.81 ERA. The problem is that his team didn’t score any runs, either. The bullpen poured gas on the mound and lit it on fire in the tenth, allowing three runs. Lee should have had a brilliant complete game shutout. Instead, he threw 117 pitches and has nothing to show for it. On the plus side, his ERA is down to 0.67. That’s obscene. To be fair, we should note that Shaun Marcum is having a very solid year, and he was brilliant as well. He allowed just two hits in eight scoreless innings.

3. Detroit cruised to a third easy win against Dallas. This is as one-sided as a conference final can possibly be. A friend sent me an e-mail late in the game that said it well - “Dallas looks like a good junior team playing an NHL team”.

4. A-Rod is not going to be healthy and back in action in time for the Yanks’ series against the Mets this weekend. That’s the story, anyway. More likely, he knows how nasty fans in New York can be, and he has trips in the friendlier and more apathetic climes of Baltimore and Seattle after that. No one ever said A-Rod wouldn’t duck a tough spot.

5. The Lakers series just got tougher to figure out. Now we have to play psychologist, figuring out how much Kobe’s back injury is for real, and how much of it is just showmanship in an attempt to get an edge over Utah. There’s no question that he isn’t 100 percent. It just seems a bit odd that he showed up in front of the media wearing some funky electric stimulation device on his back. Teams and players are notoriously tight-lipped about injuries in the playoffs, and they never seem to tell the truth when they do rarely speak. Based on that, it’s pretty easy to concoct a conspiracy theory that would suggest that he isn’t in nearly as bad shape as his actions would suggest. The problem is that he’s the only player still active outside of LeBron James that singlehandedly can determine the outcome of his series based on his health.

6. We’ll have the Preakness field set in two days, but it is still pretty fluid. Recapturetheglory has pulled out of the race. Now Harlem Rocker, the undefeated horse trained by Todd Pletcher that Big Brown’s connections admitted was the only one that they were concerned about in the field, has decided to find an easier spot. That means that this is going to be a ridiculously easy field for Big Brown if he is anywhere near his best. The one thing that could make it a bit more interesting is the rumor that Gayego could give the race a try. He had a lousy Derby, but there is a lot to like about the Arkansas Derby winner. If nothing else, his presence would inflate Big Brown’s price from the microscopic to the merely ridiculously low.

7. The Celtics have now played five road games in these playoffs. They have yet to win or cover a single one. Despite what they accomplished this season, I find it hard to view them as a truly elite team with that on their record. If they can’t beat Atlanta or Cleveland how are they going to get past L.A., San Antonio or Charlotte.

It’s Saturday night and you should be out doing something more interesting than reading what I have to say, but I will hit three quick topics that caught my eye today:

1. A somewhat dull Triple Crown trail just got a whole lot more interesting. It looked like we were living in a one freak world - Big Brown. A second one emerged today. Casino Drive had only run once in his life before today, and it was in Japan. He won by a mile, though. More significantly, he has captured the attention of racing fans because he has shipped over here specifically for the Belmont, and because he is (at least) a half brother to Jazil and Rags to Riches (the last two Belmont winners). To tune up for that race which is a month off, the horse ran in the Peter Pan Stakes at Belmont against a reasonably decent crowd. It was a massacre. I could describe it further, but you had better see this one for yourself:

Click here to see the video

One last interesting note. Kent Desormeaux rides Big Brown. He also rode Casino Drive in this race. This will perhaps be the first time in history that a top jockey wins a race that impressively and steps off the horse for its next race.

2. The streak came to an end. Detroit beat Orlando by a point in Florida to become the first road team in the second round to win and only the second one to cover. Cleveland started a new streak in the second game, and they did it with an exclamation point - they covered the two point spread by 22 points.

3. I know you can’t bet on high school girl’s track and field (not legally anyway, and if you are doing it illegally then you might have a problem), but this story is too amazing not to mention. Rochelle High School won the girl’s 1A Texas state team championship. So what? Bonnie Richardson was the only girl to qualify for the meet from the school. She won two events, was second in two others, and added a third in another. That earned her more points that the second place school. The best part? She’s only a junior. I know who I am betting on next year. I doubt there will be much value in her, though.

• After two games in Boston LeBron James is 8-of-42 shooting. Ouch. Boston is good and all, but that’s no excuse for a guy that good to be that bad
• Zab Judah hurt his arm and had to pull out of a fight against Sugar Shane Mosley scheduled for the end of the month. Boxing is in a sad state when the biggest story of the week is that we don’t get to see a fight between a couple of mostly washed up guys that nobody really needed to see anyway
• Here’s a news flash - Brandon Webb is pretty good. He made his eighth start of the year today and earned his league leading eighth win. He did it by tossing a gem - two earned runs and four strikeouts without a walk in a complete game. He’d picked on some lousy teams in his first six starts, but he’s beat the Mets and the Phillies in the last two, so the impressive factor just ratcheted up a bit.
• Dallas can start booking tee times for about 10 days from now. The Stars have only played one game against the Red Wings, but it looked like the men against the boys. The world would have to tilt on its axis for Detroit to beat Dallas.
• Sergio Garcia is leading the first round of the Players Championship by two strokes, but a stat jumped out when I saw it - the Spaniard is sitting 158th on the tour in putts per round. It’s not a wonder that he isn’t living up to his potential of late. That’s ugly.
• Chauncey Billups says he isn’t sure if he is going to play in game four after he strained his right hamstring in game three. I’m sure he ultimately will play unless he is confined to a stretcher or something, but that’s not very good news for the Pistons. Obviously.
• It’s funny how baseball works. If you had asked me six weeks ago I would have told you that Cleveland was dangerous because there rotation was so good, but if I had a guy who was going to be carrying a heavy load who I was worried about it was Cliff Lee. Now, Lee is 6-0 and giving up less than a run a game, Fausto Carmona is solid at 3-1 with a 2.95 ERA, and the rest of the rotation is 3-12. You couldn’t have seen that coming anymore than you could have seen that Detroit’s staff would be 6-16, or that Justin Verlander would be stinking it out at 1-6 with a 6.43 ERA. I was rock solid on Verlander as my Cy Young pick, and I was feeling painfully unoriginal doing it.

• It doesn’t really mean much on the grand scheme of things from a betting perspective, but one of my favorite things in baseball happened tonight - Minnesota’s Carlos Gomez hit for the cycle. He did it in what was an epic 13-1 beatdown of the White Sox by Minnesota. The usually solid Mark Buehrle got the start for Chicago, but it didn’t go well. After five decent innings the wheels fell off in the sixth when he allowed five earned runs. That was much better than Ehren Wassermann was in relief - he allowed five earned runs and only recorded one out. This is more of the same for the White Sox recently - they have on win in their last eight. Buehrle and his boys were favored tonight, though you wouldn’t guess it by the final score.
• I like it any time the Yankees lose, but I especially liked it tonight because it was the first loss for ace Chien-Ming Wang. He allowed three runs in seven innings against Cleveland, but that was too many. Cliff Lee started for the Indians, and he was magical - seven strikeouts with no runs or walks in seven innings. Lee has been one of the truly great stories of the season so far. He’s mostly a journeyman type, though he was 18-5 in 2005. This year he is 6-0 in his six starts, and his ERA is a ridiculous 0.81. His strikeout to walk ratio is alright, too - 39/2. He’s far from the biggest name in the league, but if the Cy Young was awarded today he would be a shoo-in. The best part tonight was that he was up against Wang and the Yankees, so Lee went off as +131 underdog despite being essentially unhittable all year. That’s a nice bargain.
• There have been eight games in the second round of the NBA playoffs so far. The home team has won all eight. A monkey could make money on that. If only it were always so easy.

• Crazy, crazy, crazy game between Dallas and San Jose tonight. San Jose needed a win in game six to survive. It was tied at one after regulation, and still tied after three overtime periods. The fourth overtime was a farce. The players were so tired that they could hardly move, and I’m sure both teams just wanted the suffering to end one way or another. Brenden Morrow finally scored the winner for Dallas halfway through the seventh period. The goal came on the powerplay, and it was a bit of a shame to see it end like that. Unfortunately for San Jose, though, the penalty was pretty blatant. Dallas has a few days to recuperate from this one - they don’t play Detroit until Thursday.
• The good news is that Tampa Bay got Scott Kazmir back today for the first time this year. The bad news is that they need him to be really good and he wasn’t. He lasted just four innings and allowed three earned runs in that time. There were some signs of hope from amongst the gloom, though - he struck out five and only walked three.
• CSKA Moscow beat Maccabi Tel Aviv Sunday to win the Euroleague championship. I love checking out the European games to see which players have ended up over there. There were some real gems in this one. Trajan Langdon, the Alaska-born former Duke star, was the MVP of the game and is one of the true stars of the league. One of his teammates is J.R. Holden. He played with Bucknell before heading to Russia, and he took Russian citizenship so that he doesn’t have to use up a foreign spot on the roster. THe losers were led by captain and point guard Derrick Sharp. He played at South Florida, but he is 36 so that was a while ago.
• Pittsburgh has one loss in two rounds, and there is no reason not to expect them to cruise through the battle of Pennsylvania relatively unscathed. They are young and have a lot to prove yet, but at this point they have to be solidly viewed as the favorites from among the four teams remaining. I’d take the youth and speed of Pittsburgh over the age and experience of Detroit.
• It won’t show up in their records because neither guy got a decision, but Johan Santana and Dan Haren had a heck of a duel today. Santana allowed one run in six innings, with 8 K’s and 4 walks. Haren responded with two runs in six innings with just one walk against seven K’s. Chad Qualls blew it for Arizona in the end with an uncharacteristically bad showing - three runs in the ninth.

Random notes from Wednesday afternoon:

• You had better get used to the BCS the way it is now because it isn’t going to change any time soon. After much discussion today the BCS officials have chosen to change nothing until at least 2014. There was a proposal on the table to go to a four team playoff in 2010, but that was rejected. According to the officials the BCS is in an ‘unprecedented state of health’. That’s clear evidence that the BCS officials don’t actually watch the BCS games.
• Ugly, ugly game by the Mets today. They lost 13-1. To the Pirates, of all teams. To make matters even worse, nine of the 13 runs Pittsburgh scored were unearned. There’s sloppy and then there is the game New York played today. Five pitcher appeared for the Mets, but just two were responsible for the unearned scores. Oliver Perez started, but he didn’t make it out of the second inning. He allowed seven runs, but only two were earned. He walked five. Jorge Sosa was the third pitcher in, and he made Perez look sharp by comparison. He allowed four hits and five runs (one earned) in one inning. The rest of the team did their part in this mess by contributing three errors.
• We have another drug cheat in baseball. Giants’ catcher Eliezer Alfonzo is out for 50 games after testing positive for performance enhancers. He has been in the minors this year, but he started 113 games over the last two years and had put up respectable numbers. He probably would have found his way back to San Francisco soonif he hadn’t got caught because the drugs were obviously working - he was hitting .306 with 14 RBIs in 16 games.
• The Kentucky Derby is only three days away. The post position draw occurred today, and it featured an odd moment. Big Brown, the Derby favorite, is trained by Richard Dutrow, Jr. He is one of the most obnoxiously arrogant men on the planet. He has been so boastful about his horse that if you listened to him you would wonder why they are even bothering to run the race before giving his horse the roses. No one wants the outside post - number 20 - in the race because the horse has to travel so far to get to the rail. No one except for Dutrow that is. Other posts were available when Dutrow picked his post, but he took the 20. He says it is because he doesn’t want a horse outside of him, but more likely it’s just another way for him to show off. The horse has been unbelievable, but it has to overcome a lot to win here - he has raced only three times, including just two this year. No horse in more than 70 years has won the Derby without having run at least five times before.

A few quick thoughts on draft-day-minus-one (incidentally, I will be live-blogging throughout the first round tomorrow):

• I can’t decide if I was surprised to see Tyler Hansbrough stay in college for his senior season or not. On one hand, he was a guaranteed first rounder who would make a few million dollars over the next couple of years, and there is always the chance that he could be hurt or do something to fall out of favor. On the other hand, his game is clearly made more for college and he will be the runaway early favorite for Player of the Year next year, so the risk is going to be relatively low. Given that he decided to stay I was a bit surprised that Ty Lawson and Wayne Ellington declared, though neither has an agent so anything could still happen. If I were betting I would say that Lawson will come back for another year because this is a guard-heavy draft and he isn’t going to be in the lottery. He easily could be with a strong year next year. If that happens then Ellington should return, too - he’s likely a second rounder as it is. And if all three guys come back then North Carolina will unfortunately be at least as good as this year. No matter what happens, Roy Williams is having a very good day.
• The Raptors and the Wizards earned much needed bug wins in the NBA playoffs last night. Unless I am missing something that means that in seven of the series only one road team - Philadelphia in game one against Detroit - has won a game so far. If only handicapping were always that easy. The only exception is the Utah-Houston series. In that one the home team has yet to win through three games. Other than that series the home team is at 13-3 ATS.
• Larry Brown has quit his gig with the 76ers to free himself up to take a coaching gig. In related news, Larry Brown really needs to go away.
• Another interesting reminder of how tough it is to draft players on the eve of this year’s edition: Five years agao the Jets picked DT Dewayne Robertson from Kentucky fourth overall. He was seen as a beast, and was the first defensive player off the board - ahead of guys like Terence Newman, Kevin Williams, Terrell Suggs, and Troy Polamalu. He was healthy but unimpressive in his first few years, and unhealthy and equally unimpressive more recently. The Jets tried to trade him to Cincinnati in March, but it fell through. Now they have sent him to Denver for a conditional draft pick that will fall somewhere in the mid rounds depending on how much he plays. Robertson was supposed to be a can’t miss prospect, but he missed pretty badly. We’ll be able to tell the same story about several of the can’t miss blue-chippers this year. It’s just a matter of which ones. My first bet is Vernon Gholston. I was also thinking today of another Big Ten offensive tackle now that Jake Long is locked in on top this year. Robert Gallery was the second pick in 2004 out of Iowa. He went behind only Eli Manning, and he was as close to a sure thing as anyone. Gallery was only okay as a right tackle his first two seasons, terrible as a left tackle in season three, and was moved inside to guard last year where he was adequate but not much more.

All sorts of interesting news that affects the sports betting world today:

• The Vikings are taking a big risk with Jared Allen. He’s a very good player and he’s in his prime, but they gave up three picks for him including a first rounder this year and two thirds, and then they had to ante up with a big new contract for him. He had better be really productive for several years or this can be a setback in a big way. One thing that this does do, though, is it makes me reevaluate my expectations for the Vikings this year and adjust then upwards - they must be serious about competing now if this is the investment they are willing to make. You don’t spend this kind of money and assets unless you think it is one of the final pieces in the puzzle.
• Apparently Memphis isn’t attractive without Derrick Rose. In a bizarre move, both Antonio Anderson and Robert Dozier have declared for the NBA draft. That means that all five starters are now on the list. Obviously the most recent two don’t have agents yet because there is very little chance that either would get picked, and almost none that they would go in the first round and get a guaranteed contract. I never thought that they would look to go now that Calipari has a new contract and super stud Tyreke Evans is headed there next year. Maybe Calipari just suggested that they go through the draft process for the experience and whatever learning they can do. Whatever the reason, I just hope they don’t do something stupid because a senior year at Memphis would probably be a lot more fun than a year in the NBDL.
• Pacman Jones is headed to Dallas. I would say that that is a much needed boost to Dallas’ secondary, but until he gets reinstated, shows that he can stay out of jail for at least a month, and is still in some kind of game shape I am going to assume he is irrelevant. I have no concerns about handling his attitude if everything else is okay - they have done fine with Owens.
• The Reds made a great move. They fired the essentially useless GM Wayne Krivsky and replaced him with Walt Jocketty. Jocketty did great jobs in Oakland and St. Louis, and he should do a great job of turning around a team that has lots of nice young talent but seems to be lacking direction. If nothing else he should provide some stability - he is the fourth GM in six years, so so stability is definitely absent.
• Detroit beat the 76ers easily tonight. The temporary period of panic can end and the sun will come up in Detroit tomorrow after a period of darkness.
• Not that it is surprising because he has always seemed a bit unstable, but Tony Stewart appears to have officially lost his mind. Reports say that Stewart is negotiating to lose Joe Gibbs Racing after this season to go to Haas CNC. If you don’t spend much time following NASCAR it boils down to this - Gibbs is really quite good, and Haas really, really isn’t. Haas has never finished in the top 25 in owner points. The incentive is fairly obvious, though - Stewart is a star, and he will be able to negotiate partial ownership of his new team into the deal. That will allow him to cash in even more on his name and his brand than he does now. From a betting perspective it means that Stewart won’t be an automatic consideration next year like he is now because his car will be behind in development to start, and it will also unleash a chain reaction of driver moves that could further confuse the landscape. NASCAR is a bigger soap opera than the soap operas.

There is nothing that causes more confusion than flat betting. Lots of people say that they flat bet on baseball, yet there are all sorts of different ways that people bet while calling it flat betting. This was reinforced to me yet again the other day when someone sent me a link to a long forum discussion about different kinds of flat betting. Everyone had a different way that they flat bet, and as often happens in forums everyone was sure that they were right. It got me thinking because, well, I flat bet and I think I do it the best way. Or rather, there isn’t a best way - I just use the one that I think works best. I’ll let you decide for yourself, though - here’s a breakdown of four of the ways people flat bet:

1) Bet the same amount in every game - This is the one that should probably be called flat betting, but it isn’t necessarily the best one. In this case you would bet the same amount - your unit - on every game regardless of what the odds are. The big advantage of this approach is the simplicity - you are never going to make a mistake or bet the wrong amount. The problem is that the amount you win is higher the less likely the win is. That’s always true when you are betting on the moneyline, but a good money management system would do something to limit that reality.

Let’s look at an example. We’ll use a $100 unit and three bets - a heavy favorite (-180), a mild favorite (-120), and a mild underdog (+120). The results of all of the different combination of wins and losses would be:

LLL - ($300)
WLL - ($144.44)
LWL - ($116.66)
LLW - ($80)
WWL - $38.89
WLW - $75.56
LWW - $103.33
WWW - $258.89
ROI when all three games are won - 86.3%

2) Bet to win the same amount in every game - This is when you would bet a different amount on each game with the goal of winning the same amount. That obviously means that you would be betting much more on a heavy favorite than on a heavy underdog. Success with this approach depends on one big thing - that you can pick favorites at a much higher rate than underdogs. Using this approach if you are picking a lot of heavy favorites but not winning them at a high rate will cost you money. Of course, no system will save you if you can’t win enough.

Using the same example as above the results would be:

LLL - ($383.33)
WLL - ($103.33)
LWL - ($163.33)
LLW - ($200)
WWL - $116.67
WLW - $80
LWW - $20
WWW - $300
ROI when all three games are won - 78.3%

Compared to the first route, this approach works better when the heavy favorite wins, but is less effective when the heavy favorite loses.

3) Bet to win a unit on favorites, bet a unit on underdogs - This is a common variation of the last example, and I would guess that it is the most common way that people flat bet.

Again with the same example:

LLL - ($400)
WLL - ($120)
LWL - ($160)
LLW - ($180)
WWL - $100
WLW - $100
WWL - $100
WWW - $320
ROI when all three games are won - 80%

You can see why people who are confident in their abilities would favor this approach, though it is a bit more expensive on the really bad days.

4) Bet to equalize risk on all bets - This is perhaps the most confusing, but once you get it it is quite straight forward. This is my preferred approach. The problem I have with the above approaches is that you end up having a preference over which games win. In each of the above cases I would choose to win the game with the underdog if I were to win just one - that would be the most profitable (or the least costly). I don’t like to think that way. I handicap games so that they have an acceptable edge regardless of the odds, so I don’t think that the odds should matter once I have determined it to be a good bet.

To do this, I bet so that the amount I bet plus the amount I will win if I am correct adds up to twice the size of the unit I am using. With a spreadsheet the calculations are simple.

Here’s how the example plays out:

LLL - ($328.57)
WLL - ($128.57)
LWL - ($128.57)
LLW - ($128.57)
WWL - $71.43
WLW - $71.43
LWW - $71.43
WWW - $271.43
ROI when all three games are won - 82.6%

The advantages of this approach to me are that you know going into the games what your outcomes will be depending on the number of games you win. You don’t need to worry about which games win or lose because all games are treated equally and given equal importance. The other thing I appreciate about this approach is that it keeps bet sizes under control.

Conclusion - This is a very simple exploration based on just one example, but you can already get a sense of the strengths and weaknesses of each approach. The important thing is to look at them and determine which approach to flat betting best fits your handicapping approach, tolerance of risk, ratio of favorites to underdogs, and general needs. There really is no right answer as long as you have actively considered the approach you are using.