Maddux Sports Blog

Major soccer tournaments are one of my favorite betting opportunities. Every aspect of the World Cup and Euro is covered in the international press, the coaching staffs and players are far more candid than most sports, and all of the games are available to be seen, and scheduled in such a way that you can see them. Because of that I was very excited when Euro 2008 started on Saturday, and I have been watching closely. All 16 teams in the tournament have now played one game, so it is a good time to look back on what we have seen so far to see which teams look good and which ones really don’t. You don’t have to be a major soccer fan to enjoy these tournaments or do well betting on them. I only tune into world soccer for about six weeks every two years.

Impressive

Spain - Spain absolutely destroyed the Russians. It was 4-1, but it could just as easily have been 9-0. David Villa had three goals for the winners, and he played one of the all-time great single games in international soccer history. No kidding. The Spanish had reasonably high hopes coming into the tournament, but they have a long history of being incredibly disappointing when it matters most. On top of it all, they were playing the Russians, and they are newly coached by Guus Hiddink, the guy who has previously performed international miracles with Korea and Australia. The setting was prime for the Spaniards to have an off game, but instead they played about as well as they could. They were already favored to win Group D, but now it isn’t even a contest.

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The Bulls seem determined to make a truly bizarre coaching choice. The latest man to  rise to the top of the pile is Vinny Del Negro. His biggest asset in the search is that he isn’t Doug Collins.  You probably remember Del Negro from his days  as a somewhat average player who bounced around five NBA teams and a couple in Europe for good measure. He had a good college career at NC State under Jim Valvano, and he comes from a basketball family - his dad played for Adolph Rupp at Kentucky. There’s just one problem with an otherwise solid coaching resume - he’s never coached at any level before. Hmmm. He was a broadcaster for a while after he retired before joining the front office of the Suns, peaking at assistant general manager. I’m sure he’s a good guy, and he obviously gave one heck of an interview, but it seems odd that a team with so much on the line (a solid roster, the number one pick, etc.) would give the keys to a guy who has never driven. It’s also a relatively unique-to-basketball thing. The NBA seems much more likely to give a job to an unproven guy than any other league. In the NHL you have to cut your teeth in the minors or as an assistant (unless you are Wayne Gretzky, and Del Negro is no Gretzky). You have to put in your time in baseball, too. The NFL wouldn’t hire someone who isn’t an established assistant or a college coach.  This would be like the Raiders firing Lane Kiffin and hiring Scott Pioli to take his place. Doesn’t make much sense, but I wish the Bulls well. At least I will be able to find something else to be fascinated by once they make this hiring official.

Speaking of Chicago sports, Cedric Benson finally got what was coming to him from the Bears.He was cut loose today. The reason given was that he was arrested a second time and generally had a bad attitude. The real reason, though, is that he sucks at football. There has been much discussion online today over what impact this will have on the team (and by extension how it will affect the decisions bettors have to make about the team). The answer, of course, is not very much. Matt Forte can be at least as good as Benson is, and he’s likely much less trouble, too. I still haven’t decided quite how I feel about the Bears this year, but this change won’t make me think any less of them.

The Mets are two games under .500 and they just got swept by the Padres. They were favored in all four games. If you had flat bet every game all season you’d be down almost 10 units. I don’t even know how to count the ways in which that all doesn’t make any sense. If I owned the Mets I think I’d fold them.

LSU needed a win over UC-Irvine tonight to make it to the College World Series. The bad news is that the Tigers allowed seven runs to raise a few questions about the defense. The good news is that they countered that by scoring 21. No need to worry about the offense as they head to Omaha. We’ll take a look for betting opportunities in this tournament later in the week.

I Still haven’t recovered from the bitter disappointment of the Belmont, and I doubt I will for a while. A couple of thoughts on that before I move on in this forum, though. First, I am very disappointed by how the media has handled this whole steroids issue. They made such a big deal of Big Brown’s usage of Winstrol while missing a couple of key issues. First, the drug is perfectly legal and can and is regularly prescribed by veterinarians. That means that Dutrow was doing absolutely nothing wrong by using it. Next, they focused heavily on Big Brown and the drug while not pushing other trainers on it. Nick Zito refused to answer steroid questions, which means that Da’ Tara almost certainly won the race on steroids. I have no problem with that because it is legal, but I have a huge problem with the fact that Dutrow was so persecuted over the issue and that it was blown so badly out of proportion. Dutrow has done a lot wrong in the past, but he deserved better during the course of this race. Athletes and those involved in sports have a long history of talking ridiculous trash (some guy name Ali, for example), yet somehow Dutrow was the devil on earth for being cocky, arrogant and incredibly entertaining. Ridiculous.

I believe we’ll see Big Brown again, and I hope I am right. The projected current path - the Jim Dandy, Travers and Breeders’ Cup is exactly what Bernardini used two years ago, and it would be perfect. The performance in the Belmont was terrible, but I don’t think we can lose track of the fact that this is still a freak of a horse. I can’t begin to explain what will happen, but it hasn’t changed my long term view of the horse, or the burning desire I feel to see him and Curlin hook up at the Breeders’ Cup.

Enough horse racing talk. It’s just depressing right now. Other things that caught my eye this weekend:

When I saw that Rafael Nadal was at -314 to win the French Open final over Roger Federer I wasn’t that surprised, though I thought maybe it wasn’t giving Federer quite enough respect. Turns out that it was a price packed full of value. Nadal may never lose at that tournament. The win over Federer was so dominant that it looked like he was toying with a qualifier, not the best player in the world on every surface that isn’t red. Jaw dropping.

Floyd Mayweather Jr.’s decision to retire was just bizarre. He would have made $20 million to fight De La Hoya, and he could have beat him with his eyes closed. Unlike many, though, I don’t think that boxing is worse off if he stays away. He is a spectacular fighter, but it has been a while since he has shown the desire to prove it. This move could open the door for Kelly Pavlik to unify the welterweight titles and become the star he deserves to be, or for Miguel Cotto or Ricky Hatton to step up. Mayweather is a great showman, but there are hungrier competitors out there now in a very deep welterweight division, and that makes for a better, more interesting sport in the long run. Now, if the rumors are true and Mayweather is about to join the UFC then things get really, really interesting. I kinda doubt it will happen, but I don’t rule anything out when it comes to Money.

Doug Collins will not be coaching the Bulls. It must be a very good day to be a Chicago sports fan.

Ty Lawson is a moron. No better way to impress NBA teams and prove you are worth an investment than getting busted for DWI when you are supposed to be getting ready for the draft. Maybe this will turn teams off of him and he’ll end up back at UNC. That seems like a better place for him this year, anyway - a good shot at a national title seems like more fun than trying to get off the bench in the pros.

Matt Hughes lost at UFC 85. Not only that, but he got badly beaten up. I love the guy, but I really hope that we have seen the last of him - he’s no longer what he once was.

If hockey was consistently as exciting as game five was last night then it would be as popular as football. That game had it all - agony, ecstasy, ridiculous drama, incredible saves, good luck, bad luck, injury, exhaustion, heroics. It was brilliant. Pittsburgh got very, very lucky to pull it off. Or rather, they had Marc-Andre Fleury on their side. He saved the game about 100 times, and proved once and for all that he has arrived and is the real deal. Game six is now going to be fascinating. Detroit is still favored, but not by as much, and the Penguins should be flying high after the win and in front of the home crowd. Pittsburgh is currently at +118, and if they stay around there then I like them a lot.

I obviously can’t know for sure, but I’m guessing that this is not how the Joba-Chamberlain-as-a-starter era was supposed to begin. He only faced 12 batters, and only got seven outs. He was going to be on a tight pitch count, but 65 pitches should be good for more than 2.1 innings. This shows how bettors can be less than objective from time to time. The Jays were starting Roy Halladay, among a small handful of the best pitchers in the league and riding a hot streak. Chamberlain had never started before, he wasn’t going to last deep even if things went well, and the Yankees bullpen is far from ideal. With all that in mind, why were the Yankees favored? All you can do there is take the odds on Toronto and say thank you.

Big Brown had his last work before the Belmont today and his foot held up fine. A lot could happen between now and Saturday, but I have to say that I will be absolutely shocked if we don’t have a Triple Crown winner by Saturday evening.

Ozzie Guillen’s tirade about his team’s inability to hit was ridiculous (though wildly entertaining), but t obviously worked. They exploded for nine runs at home tonight, and it seems like everyone got into the action. Of course, it was against the Royals, so it hardly counts. It did come against Zack Greinke, though, and he is one of the few bright spots on that dismal team, though you’d never guess it if tonight was the first time you had seen him.

The Celtics are favored in game one, but only by 2.5, which is less than the home court advantage. If you like the Celtics then you’re probably a pretty happy person right about now.

I’m not a devoted poker player but I dabble. I also keep my eye on what is going on on the pro circuit. It only makes sense, then, that I would be drawn to the World Series of Poker in search of betting opportunities. The series starts today at the Rio in Las Vegas and continues on for the next six weeks. Over that time there will be 53 events played. Bodog, because of their connection to poker, has a large number of props available at the event. Here’s a quick look at some of the more interesting ones:

Will a player win two bracelets? Yes - +110, No - -140. If you aren’t familiar with the WSOP, a bracelet is given to the winner of each event. They are seen as the holy grail of the poker world. I think that there is actually a bit of value here on the yes side. Poker is a game of streaks, and the format of the series is perfect for a player to get hot. I would bet that it is going to happen this year because it seems to happen consistently. I can’t find a list of double winners everywhere, but just off the top of my head I know Layne Flack did it in 2003, Mark Seif doubled up in 2005, Jeff Madsen and Bill Chen both won two in 2006, and Tom Schneider did it last year. I’m sure I am missing one or two, but even if I am not that makes it seem pretty likely that someone will pull it off this year.

Which celebrity player will win the most money in the Main Event? Unlike the last question, this one is just a shot in the dark. It’s kind of entertaining, though. The Main Event will likely draw more than 7,000 players this year, and several relatively big name celebrities will be among them. There are a good number of decent players who come from more public walks of life - Jennifer Tilly has a bracelet, Tobey Maguire has won a fairly major non-WSOP event and done well here, James Woods is competitive, and people like Shannon Elizabeth, Norm MacDonald, Brad Garrett and even Montel Williams have made some noise in the past. That being said, you are fooling yourself if you think that this bet is anything more than a guess. You might as well find a good price, then. Jennifer Tilly probably has the best shot, but at 5/1 she isn’t attractive at all. James Woods and Shannon Elizabeth have both done well in other televised events and could do well here, too, but they are also 5/1, so they are out. I wouldn’t touch Jose Canseco if he was the only person in the field, so I’ll skip him even though he is 30/1. Two names jump out that offer as much value as a silly bet like this can offer. Spider Man himself has game, and he s at 11/1. The other is Sully Erna at 14/1. He may not be a familiar name, but he is the lead singer of Godsmack. More importantly, he plays a lot of poker, and looks to be fairly decent. I think he would be lower than he is if people knew who he was. Last year, Erna was the deepest celebrity, and Maguire was second, so I am getting decent prices for going with recent history. Erna also went the second deepest in 2006.

Will a former Main Event winner make the final table of the Main Event? Yes - +900. This one is interesting. The main event has exploded in popularity over the last five years. A former champ has been at the final table twice over that time (same guy both times - Dan Harrington). As the fields get bigger it gets harder and harder to make the last table, but then there are also more for champs to take a shot. Though no champ has made it in the last three years, a few have come close. Scotty Nguyen ended up just two spots away in 11th last year. Greg Raymer finished 25th in 2005, the year after he won his title. All in all, there are about a dozen former champs who will be competitive this year. That doesn’t necessarily make this a good bet, but it would be a great place to put a few bucks to give you something to root for during the main event. It’s certainly possible.

Which World Champion will last longest in the Main Event? A World Champion is just a Main Event winner. This bet is basically just a wild guess, but it is interesting because of the number of players who have bad odds associated with them. To handicap, you can start by knocking off the guys who don’t really stand a chance because they haven’t done a lot since their wins. That knocks out Chris Moneymaker (16/1), Jamie Gold (10/1), and Jerry Yang (16/1). Next, you can knock out the guys who are older, because the endurance test that is this tournament certainly doesn’t favor them. That rules out Dan Harrington (7/1) and Doyle Brunson (11/2). Next, you can knock out the guys that appear to be an underlay. Greg Raymer hasn’t been particularly competitive the last couple of years, so I am happy to knock him out at 7/1. Phil Hellmuth has more bracelets than anyone, but he still doesn’t belong at 9/2. That knocks us down to five players - Joe Hachem, Huck Seed and Scotty Nguyen at 7/1, and Juan Carlos Mortensen and Chris Ferguson at 9/2. Nguyen went deepest last year, so given the nature of the event I would happily bet against him doing so again this year. Seed is a good player, and he finished 73rd last year, but he isn’t particularly consistent, so I would drop him. That leaves Hachem, Ferguson and Mortensen. That’s a very solid group, so you can decide for yourself from here.

A couple of things have me scratching  my head this morning.

First, the Bulls are reportedly about to hire Doug Collins as their next coach. Huh? With the first pick in the draft and a pretty decent existing lineup the best you could do is pull a guy off the scrap heap? Surely the lure of coaching Michael Beasley or Derrick Rose would have been enough to hire someone who is, well, good. Collins has already been a coach for the Bulls, and not a particularly good one. He’s also been at the helm for the Pistons and he wasn’t very good there, either. Finally, he was reunited with Michael Jordan with the Wizards. How can we possibly forget what a rousing and inspiring success that whole era was? Overall, he has a decent but not overwhelming regular season record of 332-287, but it’s in the playoffs that he has shown hs true incompetence - 15-23. He didn’t manage to get anything done with the Bulls in the playoffs, but soon after he left the team won three in a row. This move is totally without logic for the Bulls management team. Or maybe not. This must be what they are thinking - Collins hired Phil Jackson as an assistant, and when Collins was fired for being inept Jackson took the helm and won six titles in nine years. Maybe management sees this as the easiest way to identify the next Phil Jackson. That’s the only thing that makes sense, because as a coach Collins make a decent broadcaster. I wrote earlier that I was very optimistic about the Bulls next year because of the first pick and their other tools. A lot of that optimistic will drain away if they go through with this ridiculous hire. It’s not just his record that makes it ridiculous, though. They fired Scott Skiles because he was loud and fiery and it wasn’t working for the players anymore. The mogical thing, then, is to bring in a guy who is loud and fiery and shouts at his players. That’s the ticket. If I was a Bulls season ticket holder I’d be on the phone to cancel them as soon as they hired this goof. I suspect that I would have to wait on hold for a while.

The other thing that I don’t understand at all is why James Blake insists on sucking at the French Open. He was favored at -240 to win his second round match today against Ernests Gulbis, a 19 year old Latvian who is ranked 80th in the world and has only played in four previous grand slams. Not only did Blake lose the match, but he lost it in four sets. The first set went to a tiebreaker, but Gulbis dominated it. Blake fought back to take the second set, but then he folded. He looked confused, and he wasn’t playing his typical game. This is very frustrating. Blake is the 8th ranked player in the world. He’s not a clay specialist (the fact that Americans have a mental block against clay is another entirely different, though equally ridiculous, issue that I won’t deal with here), but he has had some success on clay both in the past and this year. He made the finals in clay in Houston this year. He made the quarters in the Rome Masters before losing to Stanislas Wawrinka, who went on to make the final and take a set off of Novak Djokovic. Blake has better surfaces, but the 8th ranked player in the world should be able to win their second round match in a major against an outmatched opponent on any surface. Period. Further, we should be able to trust an American ranked in the top ten to come through as a -240 favorite. Blake is an immensely talented player, but he really needs to get his head together before his window closes completely.

Big Brown returned to the track sooner than expected yesterday after suffering a quarter crack injury. He was back again today with a solid gallop. As far as I’m concerned the injury isn’t going to factor into my handicapping of the Belmont at all unless something comes up between now and then to make me think otherwise.

Casino Drive, Big Brown’s biggest threat, had a truly bizarre outing this morning. He was to work with a stable mate, but he was acting up in the warmup so they sent him off alone instead. His time was more than 1:12 for five furlongs. Even fairly average horses race six furlongs in less time. The time was so slow that Belmont clockers couldn’t record it as an official work. Bizarre. They obviously do things differently in Japan. One good thing happened for the horse today - he secured Edgar Prado as his Belmont rider. I like that a lot better than the idea of bringing a jockey over from Japan.

The White Sox scored three in the seventh to come back and beat Cleveland 6-5 today. I don’t know if the Indians suck or the White Sox are pretty good. I am finding it increasingly difficult to like anyone better than Chicago to come out of the Central, though.

Baltimore is above .500 at this point of the year. They are a ridiculous 16-7 at home. If they could play on the road even a little they would actually be competitive. That’s yet another thing that doesn’t make any sense about this season so far. It’s obvious that bettors and oddsmakers didn’t see this coming, either. Despite being just one game above .500 going into tonight’s action they are up about five units on the season on the moneyline.

Maria Sharapova won her second round match at the French Open today, but it sure wasn’t pretty. Serena Williams cruised. The women’s draw sure was easier to figure out when Justine Henin was still playing. Ana Ivanovic, the second seed, won her second match easily as well. The more I see her, the more I think she is the one to beat here. Things make much more sense on the men’s side where Rafael Nadal made it look easy.

My best guesses - Boston and Pittsburgh both look pretty good in earning home playoff wins tonight. I’ll especially be shocked if Boston doesn’t come out on put on a clinic.

I watched the hockey game tonight, and I was left stunned by what I saw. The Red Wings are freakishly good, and Pittsburgh is in serious trouble. The Penguins haven’t scored a goal yet in 120 minutes. Ouch. What is most amazing, and most contributes to the outcome, is that Detroit is just sticking to their game plan. Pittsburgh keeps doing stupid things to try to get Detroit mad, the Red Wings don’t respond, and Pittsburgh commits a penalty out of frustration. That would be great at the best of times, but it is especially effective because neither Sidney Crosby nor Evgeni Malkin kill penalties. The best possible way to neutralize those two is to keep them off the ice. I feel fairly sure that Pittsburgh will win game three at home, but this series so far is just testament to how good Detroit is. It also makes me think that the week off before the series was the worst possible thing that could have happened to the Pens - their young guys had too much time to sit around and freak themselves out by the immensity of what was in front of them. It’s clear that the team lacks a player in a central role who has been here before. Detroit - start planning your parade route.

Probably just one parade route, though, Detroit. The Pistons got a win tonight to even their series with Boston at two, but I still don’t have a lot of confidence in their ability to win it all. I don’t think that they have the health or the effective depth to beat the Western rep if they can get past Boston. This round so far has really shown just how true what we have suspected all along is - the West really is much better than the East this year.

After nine straight wins, Brandon Webb lost for the second time in a row tonight. Unlike his first loss, though, this one was ugly. He only got one out in the fifth before getting booted, and he allowed four runs and ten hits. The odd thing is that though he was very hittable tonight he was also fooling a lot of guys - he struck out eight. I went against Webb tonight just based on value in his (in my opinion) inflated price, but I will be staying away from him entirely now until we can see for sure that he hasn’t decided to plunge into a freefall or that he is healthy.

Philadelphia was at (-201) tonight against the Rockies with Jamie Moyer on the mound. Just think about that for a second - Colorado was in the World Series just last year, but they have fallen so far, so fast that oddsmakers think them to be an overwhelming underdog against a guy who is 200 years old and throws about 12 miles an hour. Even worse, the price actually reflected value - a lot of it. Philly exploded for 20 runs, including two innings with 6 each, to win 20-5. That’s the fourth time that Colorado has been at +160 or higher and they have won just once, so they are not a good team to take a shot at as a long shot no matter how tempting the potential payoff may be. Put another way, they really suck.

The teams with the three highest payrolls in baseball are well below .500. The two lowest paid teams are leading their divisions. I’m not telling you anything you don’t know, but it just seems so odd to see that in print and try to digest it. Very, very, very bizarre. Also odd - as many of the top ten payrolls (two) are in last place in their division as are in first place.

The Dodgers look to have a live arm to help with the problems at the bottom of their rotation. They rushed their next phenom, Clayton Kershaw, into the lineup straight from Double-A on Sunday. They needed his arm because they have no others - they cut Esteban Loaiza on Saturday because he couldn’t get it done anymore, and they hadn’t found anyone better. They are pretty desperate right now, too - they play 17 straight without a rest, so they will need five arms to keep the Diamondbacks within sight. Kershaw was the first high schooler chosen in the 2006 draft when he went to the Dodgers seventh overall. He was the national player of the year as a high school senior. The 20 year old was 0-3 in Double-A, but he wasn’t getting much run support. His ERA was only 2.28, and the most eye-opening number was his 47 Ks in 43 innings. He has a solid fastball, a nasty curve that drops more than 20 mph from that fastball, and a circle change. His first appearance in the pros was a decent one. He lasted six innings, striking out seven with just one walk. He allowed five hits and two earned runs. He didn’t get a decision, but his new team did beat the Cards. On Tuesday I’m going to take a look at how to deal with these phenoms as they come along.

The biggest single day of car racing of the year didn’t disappoint. Lewis Hamilton won an exciting F1 race in Monte Carlo to start off the day. Scott Dixon followed it up with win in the Indy 500. That result was sweet justice for him - he was the fastest car all month and he stayed out of trouble in a race that was far from accident-free. The biggest non-story of the day was Danica Patrick - she ended up 22nd when she was taken out in pit lane by Ryan Briscoe. The best part was that she looked like she was going to beat Briscoe senseless. The nigh ended with a win by Kasey Kahne in the longest NASCAR race of the year, the Coca Cola 600. As is so often the case, Tony Stewart was the biggest story - he should have won, but he gave up his lead with three laps left when he bumped the wall and got a flat tire.

The Belmont is still two weeks away, but there is no end of intrigue on that front. Big Brown has a small crack in his left front foot. He’s missed two days of training and could miss three more. He’s getting the best possible care, and it’s pretty likely that he’ll be just fine by race time. More interestingly, there are rumors out there that Kent Desormeaux’s agent is angling to get his charge the mount on Casino Drive in the Belmont. The rider of that horse will be named on Wednesday. It seems almost impossible that this would be true sine Desormeaux is on Big Brown, but it opens up a million different possibilities for conspiracy theorists.

Joakim Noah got arrested in Gainesville for drinking in public and marijuana possession. Also, Noah is an idiot.

Phil Mickelson won this weekend with a spectacular wedge shot on the 72nd hole to set up winning birdie putt. Now all he has to do is put together a knockout blow like that against Tiger Woods instead of Rod Pampling.

Almost nobody cares about American open wheel racing outside of one weekend each year. That weekend is here, though, so it is time to pay attention. Even if you aren’t a fan of Indy racing you’ll probably catch a minute or two of the Indy 500 on TV on Sunday. If you’re going to watch then you might as well bet on it, so here’s a look at the big names in the race and their betting prospects.

Scott Dixon (3/1) - Dixon earned the pole, so he is the favorite by a comfortable margin. He has had a good year so far with a win and two thirds in five races. He’s also been one of the more consistent drivers on the circuit the last three years, finishing second in the standings last year and fourth the year before. He’s never won at Indy, but he has been close. He was second last year and fourth the year before. He started fourth both years, so he is a row farther forward, and his car is running perhaps better than ever. THe pole has been a decent place to start from recently - Sam Hornish Jr. won from there is 2006, and so did Buddy Rice in 2004.

Helio Castroneves (9/2) - I never thought I would say something like this, but Castroneves has probably been bet down a bit because he is a good dancer. He won Dancing with the Stars to gain international fame outside of the world of car racing. He’s more than just a pair of fancy feet, though. He’s currently leading the point standings for the ciruit with two second place finishes and two fourth. He’s also a two time winner of this race, though the last of those came in 2002. Castroneves will certainly be a big part of this race, but I’m not convinced that these odds make him much of a value pick - he’s more likely to be close than in front at the checkered flag.

Dan Wheldon (9/2) - The man with the famously bad temper won this race in 2005, and he comes into this year’s version of a win in Kansas. He’s had a rough time of it the last two years at Indy, but his car is faster this year, and he seems more determined than ever. He could certainly win.

Tony Kanaan (5/1) - Sooner or later this Brazilian is going to win an Indy 500. He’s too good not to. He’s held a lead at some point in each of the last five races in Indianapolis, but he’s always found problems and has only found the podium twice in that time. He’s been solid this year, with a second in Kansas and two other top five finishes.

Danica Patrick (10/1) - She’s the biggest name in Indy racing, but she isn’t the biggest bargain. She has a win this year (finally), but her chances of winning aren’t well reflected by these odds. Her car was solid in qualifying, but it was definitely a step below the best. She hasn’t done particularly well here, with back-to-back 8th place finishes. There is a good chance she will be in the picture, but I would confidently say that she would win less than one in ten times this race was run. That doesn’t make her a good bet. She’d look pretty good with a milk mustache if she did win, though.

There are a couple big events happening this weekend. We’ll take a look at the Indy 500 tomorrow, and look at the French Open today:

Men’s Draw

I don’t see this half of the tournament being particularly competitive. There is always the chance that someone could break through - Nikolay Davydenko, for example. It seems by far more likely, though, that one of these three men will win it. If I were forced to pick, I would predict that for the third straight year Nadal would beat Federer in the final. Not original, but fairly safe:

Rafael Nadal - You can certainly pick against the Spaniard if you want to, but you had better have a good reason for doing so. He’s won the last three French Opens, and he has given us little reason to believe that he won’t win a fourth. It looked questionable a couple of weeks ago when he got knocked out of the Rome Masters on clay in the second round. He rebounded very nicely by winning Hamburg the next week, though, and he beat both Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic to do so. Nadal has won 108 of his last 110 on clay. When he is at his best he is unbeatable, and he can be a long way from his best and still be just fine. His dominance is obvious in the odds - Bodog has him as a -150 favorite to win it all. Even if you don’t think he can win four in a row like only Bjorn Borg has done before him, you can still play him in the early rounds with full confidence. The payoffs will be tiny for those games, but they can be handy when played in a parlay.

Roger Federer - He may be the best tennis player in the world, but his dominance doesn’t extend to this surface. It’s not like he’s terrible - he has made the last two finals, and has only lost to Nadal in the last three years. It’s just that he doesn’t have the game to beat Nadal if the Spaniard is anywhere near his best. There’s no need to feel sorry for Federer, of course - he has won the last five at Wimbledon and has been the U.S. Open champ the last four years. Federer is tougher to deal with than in recent years because he hasn’t been playing particularly well this year. He has been struggling with illness and generally lethargic, unfocused play. He seems to have sorted things out recently, though - he looked like his usual ferocious self en route to the Hamburg final. I feel nervous about Federer in later rounds, but he can again be used with full comfort early on.

Novak Djokovic - Djokovic reminds me in at least one way of Andre Agassi - he would have been the best player in the world if it weren’t for Pete Sampras. Djokovic is similarly stuck behind Nadal and Federer, but he is closing the gap nicely. He has made at least the semis in each of the last four grand slam tournaments, and he is coming off his first major at the Australian. His problem is that he is on the same side of the draw as Nadal, so he will face a very tough semifinal. He lost to Nadal at Hamburg, and I suspect that that will happen again here. My confidence is equally high, though, that he will make that semifinal. His clay form is excellent - he won Rome and lost in the semis at Hamburg.

Women’s Draw

Unlike the men’s side, the women are a perplexing mess. That’s because Justine Henin has won the last three versions of the tournament with relative ease, but she returned earlier this month. That throws the door wide open.

Maria Sharapova - She’s the closest thing to a favorite in the field. She won the Australian Open this year, and she has only lost twice all year. She made it as far as the semifinals last year, and she has a relatively kind path to the final this year since she became the number one seed when Henin retired. There are a couple of reasons I am not more excited about her prospects, though. She hasn’t played nearly as well at this tournament historically than in the other three majors. More significantly, she pulled out of Rome with a calf injury, so there are questions both about her health and her preparedness for this surface.

Ana Ivanovic - The second seed is virtually anonymous, but she looks pretty darned good here. She made the finals in the French last year, and in the Australian earlier this year. She’s playing fairly well this year, and she has a game well suited to this situation. There are literally ten or a dozen women who could win this tournament without being a surprise, but I like this Serbian as much as anyone.

Jelena Jankovic - Her seasoning is questionable as she has never reached a grand slam final. What can’t be questioned, though, is her current form. She won in Rome - the most significant French Open prep - and she beat Serena Williams pretty convincingly on the way. She made the semifinal here last year, and she had also won Rome last year,too, so she likes the surface. She’s not the most consistent player in the world, though, so I hesitate to trust her here.

Serena Williams - She is absolutely an enigma, but you can never disregard her if she is entered in a tournament. We can’t be sure how her health is because she withdrew from the quarterfinals at Rome with a back problem. She says she is fine, though. At the French last year she won her first four matches with ridiculous ease, and then played one of the worst matches I have ever seen to Justine Henin. This isn’t her best major, but she can certainly win it if she decides she wants to. That’s abig if. She is almost always a pass for me these days - it’s too hard to figure out if she will care enough to show up.

Manchester United rules the European soccer world after taking the Champions League final today over Chelsea. If you are North American then chances are pretty good that you don’t care. This was a pretty spectacular game, though, or at least the finish was. They were tied at one after the 90 minutes of regulation and 30 minutes of overtime. That meant that the game and the most prestigious club championship in the world would be decided in the middle of the night in Moscow in the puring rain by penalty kicks. Cristiano Ronaldo, Man U’s top scoring threat and one of the top players in the world, missed his kick and all looked lost. All Chelsea captain John Terry had to do was score and they won. As he approached the ball he slipped and fell, and the ball sailed harmlessly wide of the net. Man U went on to win in extra kicks, and Terry, one of the elder statesmen of English soccer, looked like he was going to hang himself with his consolation medal. You don’t have to like soccer to enjoy this - you just have to like human suffering and pure agony.

A guy finishes second in a cheesy reality show and all of a sudden he is too good to practice. We have known for a while that Jason Taylor’s days with the Dolphins were probably numbered. We learned today, though, that it is his doing. While every player on his team except for him are at a voluntary mini-camp he is in New York for media appearances surrounding his dancing career before jetting back to Los Angeles to meet with entertainment execs about his future in the movie business. It seems that he has no intention of going to a mandatory camp next week, either. He says he still loves football, and that he intends to play again next year, but clearly not with Miami. That makes it very interesting to see where he ends up. He had 11 sacks last year and was a Pro Bowler, so he still has lots of game left, and he can help whatever team he joins. I bet he wishes that L.A. still had a team.

Another high priced starter is headed to the bullpen, but compared to Barry Zito this one is a bargain. Dontrelle Willis and his three year, $29 million contract has been a disaster so far in Detroit. He’s been on the DL since April 13, and he struggled to locate the plate before that. He’s apparently been told by Tigers officials that he will return as a reliever when he does make his return. Though putting him in the pen isn’t a terrible idea, it isn’t one that will likely have a long life - the top three starters other than him have a combined record of 6-16 with an ERA over six, so the rotation needs all the help it can get. If Willis shows anything more than a pulse in the bullpen then he and his goofy hat will be starting again soon.

I’ve pretty much written Pedro Martinez off. He’s been hurt, but he is getting closer to a return. That will be delayed now that he has returned home to be with his sick father. That is acceptable, obviously. What is less palatable, though, is all his talk this week that he might retire at the end of the season. Even that would be fine if he weren’t also talking about an eventual comeback as well. I respect Martinez’ game immensely, and I know that he is as talented as anyone when he is right. The guy is just such a mental case, though, and he’s increasingly bizarre. I find it harder and harder to believe that he will ever return to a point where he will be worth trusting with a bet.

Mondays aren’t supposed to be busy days on the sports front, but this one certainly was. Here are five things that caught my eye today:

1. It was covered here by someone else earlier tonight, but I have to touch on Jon Lester again. Impressive on a couple of fronts - Boston having two no-hitters in less than a year, Jason Varitek catching both games, Lester’s story. It would be an even better story if it had have been against a major league team instead of the Triple-A adequate Kansas City Royals. Based on what I wrote here last week I’ll be taking a very close look at Lester next time out.

2. Man, do I ever hate the Spurs. They keep finding a way to win when it matters - mostly by boring their opponents to death. The worst part isn’t that they are still alive, or that New Orleans would have made for a far more interesting series against the Lakers. It’s that San Antonio now has to be considered the favorite to win it all, and especially so if Kobe isn’t at his best. If I have to see Tim Duncan cut down another net I am more than likely to puke.

3. The Red Wings took a couple games off, but they finally showed up today and exerted their total dominance over the Stars. Pittsburgh did the same thing yesterday after their one game holiday. This sets up the most interesting and likely exciting Stanley Cup showdown we have seen in years. I am leaning towards the Penguins, but it could go either way and I wouldn’t be surprised. It takes a lot to get me to watch hockey in June, but this will do it.

4. Andy Roddick pulled out of the French Open today thanks to a shoulder injury. I like the guy and I respect his game, but I couldn’t be happier. He’s lost in the first round the last two years at the French, and I was not at all looking forward to figuring out if he was going to break that bad habit this time around.

5. The NBA draft lottery goes tomorrow night, and as always the stakes are very high for a lot of teams. Derrick Rose is a player to build a team around, and Michael Beasley could ease a lot of woes as well. As much as I hate to admit it, I think I would like to see the Knicks win it most - watching D’Antoni coach Steve Nash for the last few years was a complete pleasure, and watching him and Rose would be no less captivating. I’d also like to see Memphis get the pick - it would be fun to see them struggle with deciding if they should choose the player who best fits them - Beasley - or the player who will sell the most tickets - Rose. Seattle would be fun, too - Durant plus one of these two would make it easy to draw comparisons between the Sonics now and the Penguins a couple of years ago.

Justine Henin retired suddenly yesterday despite the fact that she was number one in the world rankings. A couple of things arise from that. First, it’s sad where we have gotten to as a society of sports watchers - an athletes leaves suddenly and I can’t help but wonder what she was about to be caught doing. That’s probably not the case here, but we can’t help but wonder. Second, there goes one of the easiest bets in tennis. She had won three straight French Opens. The tournament starts in a couple of weeks. She hasn’t been playing well lately, but she still would have been an automatic bet for a few rounds.

Home teams are now 19-1 in the second round. This is truly, historically insane. The books seem to be getting a handle on it, though - the road teams are 3-1 ATS in the last four.

Kobe clearly isn’t very healthy right now. What a waste of an opportunity that would be if he can’t contribute to his fullest for two more rounds. I’m quite convinced that their next series is the de facto championship round.

Sucks to be John Lackey. The Angels’ ace finally gets off the DL and makes his season debut yesterday against the White Sox. He pitches very well - one earned run in seven innings. His team gives him no run support despite the fact that Jose Contreras is pitching, so he leaves a tie game. Then Scot Shields comes out in relief and does his best impression of Eric Gagne - no outs, but a walk and three hits including a grand slam.

I don’t know what is more interesting - that Cleveland starters have now gone more than 43 straight innings without allowing a run (the longest streak in the majors since 1974), or that a 21-19 record is good enough for the Indians to be alone in first in a league that was supposed to be a force to be reckoned with. Either way, the rest of the AL Central, and the AL for that matter, should be very worried now that the Cleveland rotation has remembered how talented it is.

The Marlins have lost three in a row to Cincinnati, and they could be swept tonight. I like a lot of things about the Reds, but a team that wants to be a good one can’t be losing three straight to them. That, combined with the fact that more than a third of their wins this year come against Washington and they are just 2-7 against teams sitting first, second, or third in their division make me think that the feel good story of the Marlins is going to be long forgotten by September.

I can’t believe I am saying this, but other teams could learn from the Rays. They have quietly got their house in very good order - the signed Scott Kazmir to a four year extension yesterday, and they already inked James Shields for four years in January. They have the best record in the AL (an identical mark to the Marlins), but unlike their upstate rivals, their resurgence is not a fluke (resurgence isn’t the right word, because Tampa Bay has never before been good, but you get the point).

1. There are only six guys in the majors with the last name Cabrera, but it seems like there are about 212. Every time I turn around another one is in the news. The latest did it in an impressive way - Cleveland second baseman Asdrubal Cabrera turned just the 14th unassisted triple play in major league history in the second game of a doubleheader against Toronto. He dove to catch a line drive, touched second for out number two, and the tagged Marco Scutaro, the guy who should own a hundred pizza places based on his name alone, to enter history. Troy Tulowitzki had one last season, and the previous unassisted play was in 2000.

2. That wasn’t the only crazy thing to happen in that game. I don’t know Cliff Lee, but I can only imagine that he is one angry dude right now. The ridiculously hot ace threw nine scoreless innings in that game to lower his already almost non-existent 0.81 ERA. The problem is that his team didn’t score any runs, either. The bullpen poured gas on the mound and lit it on fire in the tenth, allowing three runs. Lee should have had a brilliant complete game shutout. Instead, he threw 117 pitches and has nothing to show for it. On the plus side, his ERA is down to 0.67. That’s obscene. To be fair, we should note that Shaun Marcum is having a very solid year, and he was brilliant as well. He allowed just two hits in eight scoreless innings.

3. Detroit cruised to a third easy win against Dallas. This is as one-sided as a conference final can possibly be. A friend sent me an e-mail late in the game that said it well - “Dallas looks like a good junior team playing an NHL team”.

4. A-Rod is not going to be healthy and back in action in time for the Yanks’ series against the Mets this weekend. That’s the story, anyway. More likely, he knows how nasty fans in New York can be, and he has trips in the friendlier and more apathetic climes of Baltimore and Seattle after that. No one ever said A-Rod wouldn’t duck a tough spot.

5. The Lakers series just got tougher to figure out. Now we have to play psychologist, figuring out how much Kobe’s back injury is for real, and how much of it is just showmanship in an attempt to get an edge over Utah. There’s no question that he isn’t 100 percent. It just seems a bit odd that he showed up in front of the media wearing some funky electric stimulation device on his back. Teams and players are notoriously tight-lipped about injuries in the playoffs, and they never seem to tell the truth when they do rarely speak. Based on that, it’s pretty easy to concoct a conspiracy theory that would suggest that he isn’t in nearly as bad shape as his actions would suggest. The problem is that he’s the only player still active outside of LeBron James that singlehandedly can determine the outcome of his series based on his health.

6. We’ll have the Preakness field set in two days, but it is still pretty fluid. Recapturetheglory has pulled out of the race. Now Harlem Rocker, the undefeated horse trained by Todd Pletcher that Big Brown’s connections admitted was the only one that they were concerned about in the field, has decided to find an easier spot. That means that this is going to be a ridiculously easy field for Big Brown if he is anywhere near his best. The one thing that could make it a bit more interesting is the rumor that Gayego could give the race a try. He had a lousy Derby, but there is a lot to like about the Arkansas Derby winner. If nothing else, his presence would inflate Big Brown’s price from the microscopic to the merely ridiculously low.

7. The Celtics have now played five road games in these playoffs. They have yet to win or cover a single one. Despite what they accomplished this season, I find it hard to view them as a truly elite team with that on their record. If they can’t beat Atlanta or Cleveland how are they going to get past L.A., San Antonio or Charlotte.