Maddux Sports Blog

I don’t know much about the Fourth of July, but the sense I get from watching from afar is that it is all about eating too much, drinking way too much, and trying not to blow yourself up with fireworks. Sounds like fun. It only makes sense, then, that the occasion is annually marked by the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest. The thought of watching people cram that much processed mystery meat down their throats is disgusting to me, but it’s on ESPN, and more importantly you can bet on it, so it is worthy of a look.

The favorite is the local boy and defending champ, Joey ‘Jaws’ Chestnut. Last year’s win was his first, but the list of vulgar accomplishments this guy has to his name is, well, scary - 59 peanut butter sandwiches in 10 minutes, 7 pounds of chicken wings in 12 minutes, and 47 grilled cheese sandwiches in less than 10 minutes. Just hearing that makes me want to never eat again. He’s the number one ranked eater in the world according to the International Federation of Competitive Eating. His odds to win are at 10/13.

The second choice is my pick. Takeru Kobayashi was second last year in this event, but that ended a streak of six consecutive wins. He was dealing with a few health problems last year (shocking!), but he is apparently back in fine form this year. A guy who is determined enough to win this contest six times is, in my book, determined enough to fight to get back on top. He knows how to win, he has something to prove, and that makes him a relative bargain at even money.

Proving that this is a two horse race, you can get 3/1 on the entire field outside the top two. That includes ‘winners’ like Patrick Bertoletti, ranked second in the world by the IFCE between Chestnut and Kobayashi, 2004 rookie of the year Timothy Janus, and 98 pound superstar woman eat Sonya ‘The Black Widow’ Thomas. They might be worth a hedge at this price, but don’t fool yourself - there are two freaks here that are far freakier than the rest.

After a great tournament full of action, upsets, and surprises, the final is set and we will see Spain and Germany meet up on Sunday for the final. There were some surprising teams in the elimination round, and one that few predicted in the semi-finals, but this final comes as little surprise. Indeed, Germany was expected, and Spain was one of the handful of realistically contenders from their side of the draw. SPain goes into the final favored. I like Germany. Here are six reasons why:

1. I don’t trust Spain. They have unquestionably been the best, most consistent team in this tournament so far. They haven’t won this tournament in 44 years, though, and they have a long history of failing to come through when it matters most. They are chronic underachievers, and I don’t feel good about betting that they have rid themselves of that habit when it will cost me a premium to do so.

2. Germany is under-respected. Coming into the tournament the Germans were quite significantly favored to win the tournament. They suffered a humiliating, shocking early loss. Since then, though, they have done exactly what was expected of them. They waltzed past Portugal, and then kept their cool to get past a feisty, unlikely Turkish team that had been the story of the tournament. I understand why the love affair with the Germans may have cooled for many, but I don’t get why they have fallen so far behind the Spaniards in the eyes of the public.

3. Germany rebounds brilliantly. After they lost to Croatia they came back well next time out. They didn’t play their best game against Turkey, but  I have more faith in their ability to learn from that and make the necessary adjustments than I do any team in this tournament.

4. Injuries. Spain will be playing without David Villa, their offensive spark plug and the leading scorer of the tournament. They have good depth, but he is hard to replace and he was playing with incredible confidence. Germany may be without Michael Ballack, but as incredible as it may sound I don’t think that the loss of their captain is as significant as Villa is t Spain. Besides, I don’t believe that Ballack won’t be on the field.

5. People are on Spain. Germany is available as a fairly significant underdog depending on how you choose to bet them. Any time you can bet a quality team which is playing fairly well at an underdog price you have to have a pretty good reason not to do so. I don’t.

6. Playing style. The Spanish team plays a flashy, high paced offensive game. The Germans are more methodical and defensively sound. Methodical often wins out over explosive. You did see the NBA final, didn’t you?

Spain suffered a damaging, and potentially fatal, blow as they prepare for the Euro 2008 finals against Germany. Striker David Villa will miss the finals thanks to a sore hamstring. Villa is the tournament’s leading scorer, and he has been dynamite both when he is scoring and when he isn’t, so his loss is a real blow to both the team’s chances and their confidence. Spain is still fairly heavily favored to win it all (surprisingly heavily, really), but Germany becomes an even  more attractive underdog given this news.

Very strange story coming out from the NBA Draft concerning Darrell Arthur. Reportedly several teams passed on him because of news of kidney problems. Atlanta was the only team that actually tested him, though, and they gave him a clean bill of health. That news didn’t seem to get out in time, though, and he fell from a likely spot in the lottery all the way down to 27th. That will cost him a lot of money, but it also has to be ridiculously frustrating and a bit humiliating for the player. If he is the kind of guy that can use that as motivation then it could fuel a good year for him. I just can’t believe that we are getting the whole story. Surely in this age teams would have done their homework about something like that. That’s especially the case for San Antonio. THey culd have picked him one spot sooner than he was picked, but instead they went for a guy from IUPUI that no one has ever heard of that almost certainly could have been had later on. Even if the Spurs didn’t like Arthur it probably would have made sense to acquire him purely as an asset.

The White Sox crushed the Cubs today, and the  Mets humiliated the Yankees. What does it say about me that I get a perverse and profound pleasure from both developments. Unfortunately, the Yankees came back and returned the favor in the second half of the double bill.

Ana Ivanovic became the latest top three seed to fall at Wimbledon today, following Maria Sharapova and Novak Djokovic. The third round departure was the earliest exit by a number one seed since 2001. The bloodbath at the top is bad news for bettors, but the sportsbooks must be loving it because they will be making a killing from people looking to make the safe hit. I don’t expect the disaster to continue on the men’s side. In fact, I am very confident that it will be Nadal - Federer in the final. Yet again.

The Tigers have now won 14 of 18, and they are looking pretty much exactly like we expected them to (except for Dontrelle Willis, who is toiling away in obscurity in the minors somewhere). I was about to write that Tigers fans must be relieved and thrilled, but as I think about it I just think that if I was a Detroit backer I would be pissed. We knew all along that they could play like this, so why did they insist on throwing their season away with that horrendous start? Thankfully, they play in the AL Central, so the playoffs are not at all out of the question despite the fact that they have not yet returned to .500. To win the division, though, they will have to hope that the Twins remember once again that they are the Twins. Minnesota won their tenth in a row, and 12th in 13 games tonight. Talk about a team getting it done with smoke and mirrors.

Novak Djokovic is an absolute moron, and I suspect that there is no one more embarrassed on the planet right now. If you missed it, he spent a great deal of effort last week telling everyone who would listen to him that Roger Federer was vulnerable. Since Djokovic was set to play him in the semi-finals at Wimbledon if they both made it that far, the clear assumption was that Djokovic was going to beat him. I have no problem with a claim like that. You have to back it up, though. Djokovic didn’t even come close. He came out in the second round of the tournament and fell in straight sets to Marat Safin. Safin used to be good once, but those times are a distant memory. Djokovic should have been able to win the match in his sleep, but instead he looked lethargic and unfocused. Even worse, he whined his way through the whole match. Terrible. This is one more reason added to an already large pile why I don’t buy into the prevailing theory that Djokovic is a future number one.

So far, so good for the Blue Jays after their change of manager. After a seven game losing streak the team has one two in a row. More importantly, the offensively inept team has scored 22 runs in the two wins, and their 22 hits in the 14-1 win over Cincinnati last night was the best by any team all year. The most noticeable thing when you see the team play is that they are visibly relaxed. Under John Gibbons they were tense and they didn’t look like they were having any fun. Given that the change is so noticeable it seems odd that Gibbons was able to hold on so long. This team should, on paper anyway, be able to hit much better than they have been.

The best part of that Toronto - Cincinnati game last night was the line posted by Reds’ starter Bronson Arroyo. He lasted one inning, allowing 11 hits and 10 earned runs. It doesn’t take a math major to figure that that makes for an ERA of 90.00 on the game. That hurts the long-term stats - it bumps the ERA from an already dismal 5.55 to an ugly 6.52. Ouch.

I’m not an American, but my Canadian basketball team didn’t make the Olympics (it’s hard to do when Steve Nash is your only decent player and he isn’t playing on the national team any more), so when it comes to Beijing I will have to make due with cheering for the Americans. As a bandwagon fan, then, I have to say this - if the team doesn’t win the gold medal they should all retire from basketball immediately. This team is ridiculously dominant. I know that the world is catching up with them (or has mostly caught up), but it is completely impossible for a team to be as deep as the one just announced as the next version of the Dream Team.

To see how good this team is, just look at point guard. Jason Kidd will be the presumed starter. If he doesn’t get the nod, or he gets tired or is ineffective, then the backups are Chris Paul and Deron Williams. Any one of those three is as good as any point guard in the league, and likely the world. Other teams will be able to match them with a starter (maybe), but it is impossible for any team to go two deep with the Americans, never mind three deep.

The same is true everywhere else, too. Need scoring? Kobe, Lebron, Dwyane Wade, and Carmelo Anthony. Those are pretty much the four purest scorers in the league (other than Allen Iverson, and he’d be on this team if I picked it), and they are all on the same side. Need shooting? Michael Redd. Defense? Tayshaun Prince, or Carlos Boozer. Inside touch? Few better than Chris Bosh. Rebounding? Dwight Howard is the best there is right now. This team is ridiculous.

There won’t be any value in this team, but I don’t suspect that there will be any in betting against them, either.

Wimbledon gets underway today and goes on for the next two weeks. For once, the mens’ side holds some intrigue. For the last five years Roger Federer has won the title, and he has done it with ease bordering in ridiculous. This year, though, things are a bit different. He hasn’t had the dominating year he has had recently, and people aren’t nearly as scared of him as they used to be. Bjorn Borg said perhaps the most ridiculous thing in history when he suggested that Federer was done and that if and when he lost at Wimbledon he would probably retire. Novak Djokovic is only the third best player in the world, and he hasn’t had any more success beating Federer than he Rafael Nadal, but even he called out Roger this week. Their is definitely the smell of change in the air.

Let me say this as quickly and directly as I can - Roger Federer is not going to lose. He will win his sixth straight championship on the grass in front of the Queen. I’m all for guys speaking out, and it’s about time that someone grew a backbone when talking about the guy, but to view him as anything other than the solid favorite here is just ridiculous. Need a reason? Here are four:

1. He’s won five freaking titles in a row. No player in the world is more perfectly suited for the surface or plays it at such a high level. He is so far ahead of the crowd that he can win on it even if he isn’t at his best. Nadal has only won one career tournament on grass. Djokovic has yet to prove that he is ready to play with the big boys. Behind those three there is little to get excited about. David Nalbandian, the seventh seed, should have been as strong on grass as anyone, but he was upset by a little known Canadian in the first round.

2. He is coming off a final at the French. Federer isn’t particularly good on clay, and Nadal made him look foolish in the final of the French Open. That’s not the important thing. The key is that he made the final. And he has for each of the three years. He is far from the best player on the surface, yet he keeps making it through the draw. He’s just that good, and forgetting about that is just dumb.

3. You don’t fluke into 12 titles. Remember the U.S. Open a couple of weeks ago. Tiger had a torn ligament and a broken freaking leg, yet he still won. He’s better and he wants it more. Federer is the Tiger of the tennis world. The trash that everyone else is talking will only make him madder and make him want to win more. Djokovic is on track to hit Federer in the finals, so waving a red cape in front of Federer is proof of just how smart the youngster isn’t.

4. He’s still the heavy favorite. Bodog had Federer on at 1/1 to win the tournament. Nadal was next at 7/4, and Djokovic was way back at 5/1. No other player is better than 16/1. Don’t be fooled into thinking that it is particularly close.

5. He’s coming off a win. Federer won the Gerry Weber Open, a key grass prep, in his last start. He’s won that tournament five times in the last six years. The only time he didn’t win it was last year, and he didn’t play. A win there has been a pretty good indicator of solid form in the past, so there isn’t much reason to think that it’s not this year.

The only question I have about the Mariners decision to fire their manager to day is why it took so long. I am embarrassed to admit that I thought that they would be the class of the AL West. Instead, they are the cellar dwellers in the entire league. It’s not like they are coming up just short, either. They have all sorts of talent, and highly paid talent at that, but they just can’t get anything going. This year is a total write-off, but hopefully this change coupled with the fired general manager last week will get the message across that this team can’t be this bad anymore. I have always liked the mariners, and I will continue to as long as they don’t make the decision to get rid of Erik Bedard this season. That would be painfully shortsighted.

Portugal got a tough break at Euro 2008 today. They had played very well throughout the tournament, but Germany lost to Turkey in round-robin play so Portugal had to play the tournament favorites in the first round of the playoffs. Portugal played a solid game in virtual monsoon conditions today, but Germany was just that much better, and they won 3-2. One tough draw and they are out. In the meantime, Croatia and Turkey play to be the next opponents of Germany, and Portugal could easily have beaten either of those teams. By the time this tournament is over the draw is going to be a major story. It has already punished France and Portugal.

Big Brown has emerged from seclusion. We had heard a lot from his trainer and jockey since the crushing disappointment of the Belmont, but the horse had been mostly out of sight. He’s been training at Aqueduct, though, and he’s reportedly been doing well. He was originally supposed to be pointed to the Travers at Saratoga at the end of August, but instead he will next head to the other big summer Derby - the Haskell at Monmouth on August 3. That choice opens up the possibility, and indeed most likely the probability, of another race between that one and the Breeders’ Cup Classic at the end of October. Going into that race off a three month break doesn’t seem like a good or likely idea.

Will the world end without Tiger? If you are the commissioner of the PGA you probably think so right about now. If you have been living under a rock today and missed the news, Tiger Woods will miss the rest of the season because he needs reconstructive knee surgery. Not that he needed, but he totally added to his legend this weekend - it turns out that he was not only playing with a torn ligament in his knee, but his leg had been fractured in two places when he was preparing for the tournament, yet he didn’t tell anyone and went out and won. It’s not a wonder he was wincing in pain from time to time.

This will change the dynamics of betting on golf until the big man returns next year. When I heard the news here are the few things that first ran through my mind.

1. Man, is Phil Mickelson ever a pansy. He had a sore wrist last year and the way he carried on you’d think that his arm had been ripped off by a crocodile. He was terrible and he milked it for all it’s worth. Tiger had and injury that was at least as bad for a golfer to deal with, and all he did was play 91 holes to win a major. It’s not a wonder that Phil can’t hold Tiger’s towel.

2. This could be a great thing for golf bettors. Public interest will fall off significantly without the biggest drawing card in sports. That should mean that the lines will be softer and there can be more mistakes to exploit. That being said, the one problem is that the odds of the favorites who aren’t named after big cats will be lower than we have become used to because there won’t be a heavy favorite sucking up the cash.

3. Things are going to be wide open, and it will take a shift in mentality to pick winners. Up until now, the bigger golf tournaments have involved just one major decision - are you with Tiger or are you against him? Now it will take more work and a more legitimate handicapping effort. In other words, we actually have to work now.

4. I am dreading the British Open broadcast. I am setting the over/under on Tiger references at 57 per hour, and I’d still take the over.

5. The odds that Tiger will win his first tournament back? About +185 in my book.

Four rounds and 72 holes weren’t enough to determine the winner of the U.S. Open. In most tournaments that would mean that they played an extra hole or two and ended up with a winner. Not at the Open. Their playoff is at least 18 more holes, and more beyond that if needed. On paper the final is a total mismatch. On one hand you have the greatest golfer ever born, Tiger Woods (I make that pronouncement confidently and without qualification). On the other hand you have a 45 year old guy in Rocco Mediate who hasn’t won a tournament since the Greater Greensboro Chrysler Classic in 2002. Tiger has won 13 Majors. Mediate has four top tens, and before this year had never finished better than fourth. In the last eight Majors, Tiger has three wins and three seconds. Over the same stretch, Mediate has only played in two - a withdraw and a cut. Woods is ridiculously more qualified. It isn’t even close.

Given all of that, it isn’t at all surprising that Tiger is an overwhelming favorite (-382 at Pinnacle). I wouldn’t give that a thought if it weren’t for the fact that Tiger is clearly not at 100 percent with hs knee. If he was then he would have eaten the rest of the field for lunch when he went into the final round with a lead. Instead he struggled and needed a miracle putt to force this playoff. That’s not how it was supposed to turn out today. It also means that you can’t help but wonder if the fat +352 price on the underdog is fat enough to make it worth a bet. Can he beat a guy who is so incredibly good, but was so obviously hurting on Saturday that there were legitimate rumors that he might not even play on Sunday?

Woods is the deserved favorite, but here are three reasons why Mediate may be worth a shot. It might not be the best bet ever, but at the very least it is more interesting betting on the cagey underdog than the robotic favorite, and it makes a much better story if you win:

1. Tiger’s injury - I am so sick of hearing about Tiger’s meniscus that I just might puke. No matter how overplayed and over-discussed the knee injury might be, it is crucially important here. He clearly isn’t healthy. If this were a short playoff then I wouldn’t be that worried because he could rely on adrenaline to play through it. It’s a full round, though, so this is a totally different thing. Tiger was worse physically on Saturday than Friday, and worse on Sunday than Saturday. There is a very real chance that he will be even worse on Monday. How big is that chance? Hard to tell, but if I had to quantify the chances it would be far more likely that he will struggle physically than these odds suggest. That’s a check mark in Rocco’s favor.

2. Rocco’s experience - Mediate isn’t a PGA superstar, and he never has been in his career, but he has been around the block. And around it again. And around a few more times. He turned pro in 1986, and he has overcome serious injuries and setbacks to win five PGA events. That’s more than a lot of guys can claim, including several major winners. He’s seen and done enough that he probably isn’t going to melt down under pressure. He’s been around Woods for a long time, he knows all about how to perform and what it takes, and he shouldn’t be intimidated in the playoff. Don’t get me wrong - Tiger has a massive edge in experience. It’s just that I have a lot more faith in Mediate when it comes to withstanding the pressure than I would in most guys. On the plus side, Mediate has never played an 18 hole playoff for a Major, but then neither has Woods. On that count they are in the same boat.

3. Nothing to lose - Mediate isn’t an idiot, so he knows that this is quite likely his last shot to win a Major. He’s 45, his back is a wreck, and he has struggled to make a cut this year, so his PGA career is on borrowed time and he knows it. That could be depressing, but he sure isn’t playing like it this week. If he has the right mindset on Monday then he will be able to let it all hang out and aggressively go for it because there is truly no reason to do anything else. I can’t profess to know much about Mediate, so I can’t say how he will respond in the final. The chance that he will rise up and shine (like he already has) combined with everything else that is a factor here, makes him an entertaining and not at all disastrous bet. It’s not the way to get rich quick, but I don’t think it is throwing money away, either. I look at it this way - there is no way in the world I would bet on Tiger at his price, so Mediate can’t be that unattractive.

I love sports more than almost everything (I say almost because my wife occasionally reads this). That being said, a lot of what goes on in sports these days drives me insane. I can’t handle all of the peripheral scandals and issues that surround sports these days. I long for a time when we can just sit down and watch sports without having to worry about everything else surrounding the sports. Sports are supposed to be a way to escape obnoxious issues, but now obnoxious issues are overrunning sports. Changing that would be difficult (probably impossible) but here are 10 guys that could help my cause if they would just go away:

Tim Donaghy - You’re a scum referee who made all sorts of bad decisions. You’re not going to save yourself or earn respect by pointing fingers at other officials. Everyone who has watched more than one NBA game in their life knows that the refereeing stinks and favors better teams and players, and that it is kinder to the home game, and changes from the beginning of a game to the end. You have told us nothing we didn’t know, and all you have done is distracted the attention from an interesting and tradition-filled finals.

Plaxico Burress - You’re a decent receiver. You are getting old. You will make $3.5 million a year for the next three years. You are not hard done by or disrespected by that. Shut up and start practicing.

Chad Johnson - You are one of the best in the league when you want to be. Your celebrations are mostly hilarious. Your whining is ridiculous. You only get to whine when your team doesn’t suck, so quit sucking and then we’ll be happy to hear anything you have to say.

Milton Bradley - The guy can hit, but he’s a menace. In his latest outburst he heard something he didn’t like from a Royals TV color commentator, so he stormed out of the dressing room to try to find the guy and beat the hell out of him. I like the guy as a player, but no player is worth as much drama and ridiculousness as Bradley demands.

The Steinbrenner family - Your team sucks because you have managed it badly. Look at teams that win - they all have very good pitching. You used to have a great rotation. You won then. You don’t now. You lose. Shut up and figure it out.

Jim Tressel - This is just a personal thing. I hate Ohio State, I hate that stupid sweater vest, I hate that Michigan seems to have forgotten how to kick Buckeye butt, and I hate that his team keeps embarrassing the best conference in college football in bowl season.

Joe Dumars - Self-awareness is the key to success in life. You need to look in the mirror, Joe. You have had several of the best coaches in basketball at the helm of your team. None have been good enough for you. Maybe it’s you.

Curt Schilling - You’re an injured, washed up geezer who was once a decent pitcher. You do lots of good things for charity, but why in the world do you think that we should care what you think about everything? Just shut up and get healthy.

Cedric Benson - If you are dumb enough to screw up multiple times and throw away a golden opportunity which is handed to you on a silver platter then I don’t care about you. I picked on Benson here, but there are a disturbing number of guy, mostly but not exclusively in football, who could just as easily have been here in his place.

Danilo Gallinari - This is the Italian punk who has said he will only play in the NBA if he is drafted by a team in New York or New Jersey. I am sick to death of young kids who have proven nothing and may turn into nothing holding teams for ransom. Danilo, Eli, and the rest of you can all go away.

In the first shocking upset of Euro 2008, Croatia stunned Germany 2-1 on Friday. It was exciting and unpredictable, and it may lead to riots in both Germany and Croatia, but what does it really mean? In short, not much.

First things first - Germany is not going to miss the second round. They have already beaten Poland, and they are going to cruise by Austria. That will ensure that  they will finish second. They won’t finish first, but the top two teams from each group make it, so they will be just fine.

What it does mean is that the Germans will play Portugal in the first round. Again, it doesn’t really matter. the two teams were heavily favored to play on June 25 in the second round, so now they will just play six days sooner. It’s not ideal, but the teams were going to have to play at some point, so it doesn’t really matter when it is. It’s not like finishing second costs the Germans home field advantage or anything meaningful. Croatia benefits because they get an easier first opponent (likely the Czech Republic), but the winner of that game will be heavy underdogs against the winner of the other game. In other words, nothing has changed for the Germans - they still have to beat Portugal and another solid but beatable team to make the final.

Should we trust the Germans less now? Not really. The team was shocked, but they didn’t play horribly. More significantly, they are well coached and they are experienced in big tournaments, so they will learn from the mistakes they made, and they won’t make them again. Germany got caught once, but I don’t think they’ll get caught again.

My advice - take whatever opinion you had of the Germans before this disaster and don’t change it. ALl this loss will do is provide a little more value on their lines in the next game or two.

The Cards are solidly in charge of the NL wild card race right now, but their chances suffered a significant setback today. He is expected to miss at least three weeks after tests confirmed that he had strained his calf. He hurt it chasing down a ground ball last night in Cincinnati, and at first the team feared it was torn, so it could have been worse. Still, the team already has injury woes, and Pujols is obviously key to everything they do.

Plaxico Burress refuses to practice without a new contract, even though he has three years remaining on a deal that will pay him $3.5 million a year. The Super Bowl swollen head curse strikes again. It’s not a wonder that it is so hard for a team to stay at the top once they get there.

All eyes are on Rajon Rondo’s ankle after he twisted it last night in game three. The Boston point guard has a bone bruise, and he says that he is 50 percent. He missed practice today, but he says he will play on Thursday. On one hand, this isn’t a big problem either way because they have Eddie House and Sam Cassell as backups. On the other hand, game three showed that the Lakers are more than a handful if they playing well, and the Celtics really need to have all of their tools in place. He could be a major factor in the ultimate outcome of the series.

Portugal beat the Czech Republic 3-1 today at Euro 2008, and cemented their position among the elite of the tournament. Cristian Ronaldo was impressive, and the team played a flowing offensive style that was alternately aggressive and patient as the situation demanded. They have already clinched the top spot in group A, and their inevitable match against Germany in the semi-finals has the potential to be the best game in the tournament and quite possibly the one that will produce the ultimate winner.

I was interested to see that the powers that be with USA Basketball have decided not to have a tryout camp for the next version of the Dream Team. Instead, they will choose the 12 players themselves before the team gets together the first time. Interesting. It means that they can get right down to practicing, but it has the potential to backfire if the roster doesn’t perform as well as it should.

Major soccer tournaments are one of my favorite betting opportunities. Every aspect of the World Cup and Euro is covered in the international press, the coaching staffs and players are far more candid than most sports, and all of the games are available to be seen, and scheduled in such a way that you can see them. Because of that I was very excited when Euro 2008 started on Saturday, and I have been watching closely. All 16 teams in the tournament have now played one game, so it is a good time to look back on what we have seen so far to see which teams look good and which ones really don’t. You don’t have to be a major soccer fan to enjoy these tournaments or do well betting on them. I only tune into world soccer for about six weeks every two years.

Impressive

Spain - Spain absolutely destroyed the Russians. It was 4-1, but it could just as easily have been 9-0. David Villa had three goals for the winners, and he played one of the all-time great single games in international soccer history. No kidding. The Spanish had reasonably high hopes coming into the tournament, but they have a long history of being incredibly disappointing when it matters most. On top of it all, they were playing the Russians, and they are newly coached by Guus Hiddink, the guy who has previously performed international miracles with Korea and Australia. The setting was prime for the Spaniards to have an off game, but instead they played about as well as they could. They were already favored to win Group D, but now it isn’t even a contest.

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The Bulls seem determined to make a truly bizarre coaching choice. The latest man to  rise to the top of the pile is Vinny Del Negro. His biggest asset in the search is that he isn’t Doug Collins.  You probably remember Del Negro from his days  as a somewhat average player who bounced around five NBA teams and a couple in Europe for good measure. He had a good college career at NC State under Jim Valvano, and he comes from a basketball family - his dad played for Adolph Rupp at Kentucky. There’s just one problem with an otherwise solid coaching resume - he’s never coached at any level before. Hmmm. He was a broadcaster for a while after he retired before joining the front office of the Suns, peaking at assistant general manager. I’m sure he’s a good guy, and he obviously gave one heck of an interview, but it seems odd that a team with so much on the line (a solid roster, the number one pick, etc.) would give the keys to a guy who has never driven. It’s also a relatively unique-to-basketball thing. The NBA seems much more likely to give a job to an unproven guy than any other league. In the NHL you have to cut your teeth in the minors or as an assistant (unless you are Wayne Gretzky, and Del Negro is no Gretzky). You have to put in your time in baseball, too. The NFL wouldn’t hire someone who isn’t an established assistant or a college coach.  This would be like the Raiders firing Lane Kiffin and hiring Scott Pioli to take his place. Doesn’t make much sense, but I wish the Bulls well. At least I will be able to find something else to be fascinated by once they make this hiring official.

Speaking of Chicago sports, Cedric Benson finally got what was coming to him from the Bears.He was cut loose today. The reason given was that he was arrested a second time and generally had a bad attitude. The real reason, though, is that he sucks at football. There has been much discussion online today over what impact this will have on the team (and by extension how it will affect the decisions bettors have to make about the team). The answer, of course, is not very much. Matt Forte can be at least as good as Benson is, and he’s likely much less trouble, too. I still haven’t decided quite how I feel about the Bears this year, but this change won’t make me think any less of them.

The Mets are two games under .500 and they just got swept by the Padres. They were favored in all four games. If you had flat bet every game all season you’d be down almost 10 units. I don’t even know how to count the ways in which that all doesn’t make any sense. If I owned the Mets I think I’d fold them.

LSU needed a win over UC-Irvine tonight to make it to the College World Series. The bad news is that the Tigers allowed seven runs to raise a few questions about the defense. The good news is that they countered that by scoring 21. No need to worry about the offense as they head to Omaha. We’ll take a look for betting opportunities in this tournament later in the week.

I Still haven’t recovered from the bitter disappointment of the Belmont, and I doubt I will for a while. A couple of thoughts on that before I move on in this forum, though. First, I am very disappointed by how the media has handled this whole steroids issue. They made such a big deal of Big Brown’s usage of Winstrol while missing a couple of key issues. First, the drug is perfectly legal and can and is regularly prescribed by veterinarians. That means that Dutrow was doing absolutely nothing wrong by using it. Next, they focused heavily on Big Brown and the drug while not pushing other trainers on it. Nick Zito refused to answer steroid questions, which means that Da’ Tara almost certainly won the race on steroids. I have no problem with that because it is legal, but I have a huge problem with the fact that Dutrow was so persecuted over the issue and that it was blown so badly out of proportion. Dutrow has done a lot wrong in the past, but he deserved better during the course of this race. Athletes and those involved in sports have a long history of talking ridiculous trash (some guy name Ali, for example), yet somehow Dutrow was the devil on earth for being cocky, arrogant and incredibly entertaining. Ridiculous.

I believe we’ll see Big Brown again, and I hope I am right. The projected current path - the Jim Dandy, Travers and Breeders’ Cup is exactly what Bernardini used two years ago, and it would be perfect. The performance in the Belmont was terrible, but I don’t think we can lose track of the fact that this is still a freak of a horse. I can’t begin to explain what will happen, but it hasn’t changed my long term view of the horse, or the burning desire I feel to see him and Curlin hook up at the Breeders’ Cup.

Enough horse racing talk. It’s just depressing right now. Other things that caught my eye this weekend:

When I saw that Rafael Nadal was at -314 to win the French Open final over Roger Federer I wasn’t that surprised, though I thought maybe it wasn’t giving Federer quite enough respect. Turns out that it was a price packed full of value. Nadal may never lose at that tournament. The win over Federer was so dominant that it looked like he was toying with a qualifier, not the best player in the world on every surface that isn’t red. Jaw dropping.

Floyd Mayweather Jr.’s decision to retire was just bizarre. He would have made $20 million to fight De La Hoya, and he could have beat him with his eyes closed. Unlike many, though, I don’t think that boxing is worse off if he stays away. He is a spectacular fighter, but it has been a while since he has shown the desire to prove it. This move could open the door for Kelly Pavlik to unify the welterweight titles and become the star he deserves to be, or for Miguel Cotto or Ricky Hatton to step up. Mayweather is a great showman, but there are hungrier competitors out there now in a very deep welterweight division, and that makes for a better, more interesting sport in the long run. Now, if the rumors are true and Mayweather is about to join the UFC then things get really, really interesting. I kinda doubt it will happen, but I don’t rule anything out when it comes to Money.

Doug Collins will not be coaching the Bulls. It must be a very good day to be a Chicago sports fan.

Ty Lawson is a moron. No better way to impress NBA teams and prove you are worth an investment than getting busted for DWI when you are supposed to be getting ready for the draft. Maybe this will turn teams off of him and he’ll end up back at UNC. That seems like a better place for him this year, anyway - a good shot at a national title seems like more fun than trying to get off the bench in the pros.

Matt Hughes lost at UFC 85. Not only that, but he got badly beaten up. I love the guy, but I really hope that we have seen the last of him - he’s no longer what he once was.