Maddux Sports Blog

There is always all sorts of news about injuries in the sports news, but there is a particularly large amount today that directly affects betting decisions through the weekend:

Charlie Manuel: This isn’t directly an injury, but the Phillies’ manager lost his 87 year old mother today. He is staying to manage the game against the Dodgers. Manuel is very well liked by hos players, so I expect this to be a boost to the team. They will be playing for him. It’s also not that likely that he will be too distracted to be at his best - his mother had had a heart attack earlier in the week and wasn’t doing well, but he still managed a heck of a game in game one. I don’t know which team you like in this one, but I think that this is a check mark to put in Philadelphia’s column.

Carson Palmer: Cincinnati’s QB is out of action again on Sunday, and Ivy Leaguer Ryan Fitzpatrick will again get the start.This is a step down in QB quality, and that would be a real problem if Palmer and the offense had been clicking. They aren’t, so it’s not nearly as scary. Or at least it’s not in my mind. The public doesn’t agree - the line on this one has shifted by a full field goal today.

Brian Westbrook: The stud Eagles’ running back will be kept out of the game on Sunday thanks to the rib injury he suffered last week. Guard Shawn Andrews and receiver Reggie Brown are out. Of the three, Westbrook is obviously the biggest hit. The line is going nowhere on this one, so the public and the oddsmakers had already assumed this one was going to happen. As a Niners’ fan I’m not unhappy about this one.

Pacman Jones: Stupidity isn’t an injury, but this one still needs to be looked at. Jones lost his mind and did what he does best - drink and brawl. There was no charges laid, and the Cowboys have done what they would have been expected to do - turned a blind eye and let him keep playing. They really have no choice. Terence Newman is out, so Pacman is desperately needed to help contain the Arizona vertical game.

Kellen Winslow: This guy can’t get a break. The talented but injury-prone tight end is in the hospital being treated for an undisclosed illness. There is no word on whether he will be out of the hospital in time for the Monday night game against the Giants. I’m not sure it matters much, though. His absence would be a big hole, but I don’t think many people were giving him  much of a chance anyway, regardless of whether he was there or not.

Matt Hasselbeck: The Seattle QB has not been cleared to play Sunday against Green Bay, and it seems increasingly likely that he won’t. That means that the starting duties will fall to Charlie Frye. The former answer in Cleveland gets another chance. That’s not very inspiring, but then again neither are the Hawks regardless of who is under center. The line moved from -3 to -1 on the Seahawks early in the week, but has stayed there since.

Worst NFL Game of the Week - There are a couple that could fit the bill here. There’s an NFC North showdown between Detroit and Minnesota that doesn’t have a lot to offer. I know Minnesota is coming off a big Monday night win, but I am still stunned how a team can be outplayed that badly and still come out ahead. Detroit is just plain terrible. There’s another game, though, that I think has the potential to be even worse - the Holmgren Bowl. Green Bay is a struggling team - they lost to Atlanta, after all. Seattle’s just a mess. They won’t be at their worst because this isn’t in the eastern time zone, but they still aren’t very pretty. Two flawed teams in a funk meeting up - sounds like a recipe for a late afternoon nap.

Best NFL Game of the Week - Coming into the season it was clearly going to be New England at San Diego. I don’t trust the Pats, though, and San Diego is just coming off a loss to Miami. It goes from a must watch to one I’d skip if I got a better offer. In terms of pure fireworks, Dallas at Arizona should be fun - especially if you like scoring. I’m also personally intrigued by Carolina and Tampa Bay, though that might not be shared by most people.

Game With Teams With The Most To Prove - This is where San Diego and New England fit in. San Diego desperately needs to get their act together and prove that they are worthy of making the playoffs, never mind being a legitimate contender. New England needs to show that they are the team that beat San Francisco comfortably last week, not the one who got beat up by Miami in the previous game.

Ridiculously Over-hyped - There’s not really one that the media will get truly crazy about this week. The pick probably has to be the Dallas - Arizona game. The media has a lot to bite into here between Jerry Jones meddling with his bench during the game, and Kurt Warner rather publicly discusiing retirement.

Oddest Line - I understand that they are at home, but it seems very odd that a team that was not only beaten by Miami but thoroughly handled would still be favored by six over a New England team coming off a nice win. In my mind that’s a bit more respect than the Chargers have earned this year.

Best College Game - LSU and Florida will be interesting, and Oklahoma State and Missouri should have its share of fireworks, but there is no contest here. The Red River Rivalry, or Shootout, Or Showdown, or whatever we are supposed to call it now, is one of the great football rivalries. It is always interesting to watch, and especially so this year when Oklahoma may be the best team in the country, but we won’t know for sure until after this test. Both of these quarterbacks are at the top of their game, so it should be an offensive clinic.

Filling Me With Dread - Coming off an ugly, ugly win against Illinois, my beloved Michigan now plays Toledo. As rough as the season has been for Michigan, they should completely outclass Toledo. They are favored by 16.5. Given how they played in the last three quarters against the Illini, though, my real fear is that they will find a way to lose this one. That would hurt. A lot. I still have hopes for bowl eligibility - even if it means a meaningless pre- Christmas bowl - and thes is the kind of game we need to win to get there.

Four Interesting Games Between Unranked Teams - Minnesota (+12) at Illinois. A showdown between teams fighting to occupy the second tir in the Big Ten. Minnesota has played very well this year, and this is their chance to rpove that they are a changed team. To do that they will have to find a way to contain Juice Williams - no easy task. Notre Dame (+7.5) at North Carolina. Here are two overachieving teams. Only one can come out victorious. Obviously. The real difference here is that I don’t hate North Carolina. Arizona (-6.5) at Stanford. Arizona is putting together a decent season, and perhaps just in time to save Mike Stoops’ job. This is another decent test for them - the kind they need to win. Louisiana Tech (+7.5) at Hawaii. The Warriors showed a surprising spark last week in beating Fresno State. This s a chance to see if it was for real or just a fluke.

Biggest Line - Idaho (+34) at Fresno State. The Bulldogs are coming off an ugly loss to Hawaii. There are few better ways to break out of a funk than playing the Vandals. Despite the pathetic competition, Fresno State doesn’t inspire a lot of hope here - they haven’t covered n their last four tries.

A few things occupying my thoughts:

Monday Night Football is just a couple of hours away. I am torn in the game. The big thing that stops me from backing New Orleans enthusiastically is the loss of Sedrick Ellis. I have no idea what the impact of his absence will be, but I am very curious to find out. He’s really coming into his own, and he would have made it much harder for Minnesota to run. Since they can’t really pass, that would have been important. This isn’t going to be a classic game, but it is certainly an interesting one to consider. Talented but terribly flawed teams.

As I write this the Rays are running away from Chicago and look to be heading to the second round. I really can’t wait for their series against Boston. The home field will be huge for them, and I like their chances of going on. I wonder what kind of odds you could have gotten before the season started on a Rays-Dodgers series. Strange, but true.

I just read that Brian Westbrook has two broken ribs to go with his bum ankle. That’s a big blow for the Eagles. In my mind that puts them in the drivers seat to become the one NFC East team that doesn’t make the playoffs.

I laugh at Plaxico Burress. I’ve always thought he was a big baby, and that last game, with him out on suspension, sure didn’t do much to reinforce the myth of his irreplacability.

Rich Rodriguez ripped his Michigan offense for their inept play over the last three quarters, and the lack of desire they showed. Good job, Rich. That was embarrassing.

Mark Sanchez doesn’t have any structural damage in his knee. That’s good news. He’s sitting out of practice today and maybe longer, though, and he’s day-to-day for Saturday. I will be very interested to watch the line movement as things get closer to kickoff if his position is still unclear. As it is, a 25.5 point line against Arizona State seems pretty hefty. Think of how it would look with Mitch Mustain under center.

1. Alabama isn’t as good as we thought. I don’t like Kentucky much at all. This should be a rebuilding year for them. That makes it more than a bit concerning to me that they played the Tide as close as they did. Any team can have a bad day - just ask USC or Ohio State. My concern with Alabama, though, is that Kentucky was able to set the tone on both sides of the ball at times, and they were able to completely neutralize the passing game. That doesn’t bode well for a team that still has two or three tough games ahead. I know that they beat up on Georgia, but I don’t like them, either. My comfortable prediction - Alabama won’t finish the year in the top five.

2. The Big 12 is the best conference in the country. By far. Shut up SEC fans - I don’t want to hear from you. The Big 12 is loaded. Oklahoma and Mizzou have yet to take even a minor misstep. Texas Tech found their mojo in a big way this week. I have doubts about Texas that I think will come to fruition against Oklahoma this week, but so far they have been more than solid. Oklahoma State is clearly on the rise. Colorado and Kansas have issues, but both can do damage. I love the Big Ten, but there is no better group to watch, or bet on, than the Big 12.

3. Last weekend was an anomaly on the USC front. I can’t even begin to explain what happened against Oregon State, but I am confident that it won’t happen again. The team that shredded Oregon bore no resemblance at all to the one that lost to the Beavers. I might yet be proven wrong, but I now think that that game will be a momentary blip on a ferocious year.

4. Butch Davis is a very good coach. In only his second year, he has made North Carolina a legitmate team. In their last four games they have thrashed Rutgers and UConn, beat Miami, and narrowly lost to Virginia Tech. That’s a good month for any team, never mind one that has been as bad as the Tar Heels have been for as long as they have.

5. Okay, okay, okay. I admit it. The Titans are good. And the Giants, too. Just don’t ask me to like either of them much. Or trust them, for that matter.

6. I really, really misjudged the Redskins. I wrote them off before the year, and felt very smug in the decision after the first game. Since then, though, they have been the best team in the league. They have won four in a row against potental playoff teams. Most impressively, they have won consecutive road games against division rivals. That’s saying something in the best division in the league. Jim Zorn has to be high on the coach of the year list.

7. Seattle is doomed. Did you see a single redeemable thing they did today? There wasn’t one. Bad team, and awful at traveling. I can’t wait until their long trips to Florida - they have two left. I can’t help but think that the stupid situation around their coaching - Holmgren as a lame duck with Mora waiting in the wings - is damaging them.

8. The Lions are incredibly terrible. I don’t see how benching Jon Kitna is going to help, though. It’s not his fault that the team is so poorly assembled and ineptly coached.

9. The Falcons are making my head hurt. Every instinct I have is that they should be a year or two away from legitimacy. Yet here they sit at 3-2, with a win against a supposedly decent team this week, and a QB who is mostly solid. I respect the work they are doing, but I still won’t touch them until they beat a solid team playing well. That’s not the Pack at this point in my mind.

10. Norv Turner is a terrible, awful coach who immediately needs to find a job that has nothing to do with football. He is making a mess of the Chargers like only a few people on this planet could.

11. Matt Schaub just won serious job securty and he didn’t even play this week. There had been all sorts of calls in Houston for Sage Rosenfels, but his last three minutes of that Indy gamewere so indescribably bad that no fan of that team will want to see him ever again.

We’ll delay our PS2 simulations for a day because there are just too many interesting stories bouncing around out there that need to be looked at:

1. Lane Kiffin - I can’t believe what a bizarre mess this has become, and given that it was the Raiders I expected it to get ridiculous. By leaving Kiffin twisting so long, Davis seriously damaged any progress his team could ake this year. BY getting rid of him in the ridiculous way he did - refusing to pay him what he is owed and then unleashing in a bizarre, barely coherent press conference - he has alienated any players that were still loyal to Kiffin, and has ensured a split in the locker room. It’s almost as if Davis doesn’t want to exist. I certainly won’t be touching this team in their next game, but my guess is that they are going to come out flat. I just don’t know how they can play well through this circus.

2. Aaron Rodgers - This right here is why the Pack should have brought Favre back. The old man is an iron man, while Rodgers is made of glass. He has a sore shoulder, and has been limited to just doing handoffs in practice this week. I doubt he will play, and even if he does he won’t be at his best. That means that the team has to rely on one of two quarterbacks who just sn’t ready for prime time. This team just isn’t good enough to throw away a game or two, and Rodgers just isn’t durable enough for the long term. I don’t know what the long term answer is for the Pack - maybe they just hope that Brian Brohm is as good as people thought he would be after his junior year. Betting against Green Bay will be worth a look depending upon how this plays out in the next day or two.

3. Beanie Wells - Wells said he still thinks he can win the Heisman despite missing a huge chunk of his team’s season, and only being good, not superhuman, upon his return. Wells clearly does drugs. I would take bets at pretty much any price if someone wanted to bet that Wells is right.

4. Bo Pelini - Nebraska’s new coach gets points for ambition. He says that his team’s goal is to shut out Missouri. Clearly another heavy drug user.

5. Omar Minaya - The Mets are about to lock up their GM until 2013. Yes, the same Mets that have faded to miss the playoffs despite being in a comfortable position at the beginning of September two years in a row. The same Mets that have spent millions and millions and yet never managed to build a serious contender. Terrible, terrible move. I only hope that they change their mind before they make it official.

Worst NFL Game of the Week - This is harder to spot than most weeks - the matchups mostly have at least a little interest. That means that, more than any week so far, there really isn’t a truly bad game here. That means we have to pick the worst of a decent bunch. In my mind that’s going to be Cincinnati at Dallas. The Bengals are truly, absolutely awful, and they may not have Carson Palmer in action. Even if they do he won’t be healthy. The Cowboys had an off game, and I expect them to come back hungry and angry. This one should be a dull, lopsided mess.

Best NFL Game of the Week - As I said before, there are a lot of good games this week, but none that are true and obvious classics, so this is a tight competition. There are a couple or runner-ups. Tennessee at Baltimore is a battle of two teams that are better than they were probably expected to be, and it should be a classic defensive battle. Buffalo at Arizona is a good test of a team that has been an upstart and wants to prove that they are for real. For my winner, though, I have to go to the most consistently excellent division in the league so far this year - the NFC East. Washington and Philly are both promising teams that don’t quite have their acts completely together, but they both have obvious promise. It should be good.

Game With Teams With the Most to Prove - Indianapolis and Houston. Coming into the season the Colts were favored to win their division, and a lot of people had Houston picked as a wild card team. They have combined to go 1-5 so far. They both have a world of problems, but both present just enough points of optimism to keep fans interested. A loss here will be a huge blow to either team.

Ridiculously Over-hyped - Terrell Owens has assured that we are going to hear about the Cowboys way, way more than we need to. Thanks, buddy.

Oddest Line - Though I don’t have a real problem with it given what has happened this year, it would have seemed truly bizarre to see San Diego favored by less than a touchdown against Miami before the season started. The Chargers were supposed to be much, much better than they are, and Miami has looked pleasantly solid on their rebuilding path.

Best College Game - It’s a strange week in college - lots of interesting games, but again none that stand out as instant classics. My pick has to be Oregon at USC. The Trojans were inexplicably bad last time out, and they have a lot to prove against a team with troubles of their own, but which can cause all sorts of problems nonetheless. The Trojans are heavy favorites at 16.5 points, but that won’t be a lock if they haven’t recovered dramatically from last week.

Filling Me With Dread - Last week, my beloved Michigan Wolverines played the worst first half of any team all year (21 total yards, five turnovers), yet when the dust had settled they had somehow posted a miraculous comeback to beat the number eight Wisconsin Badgers by two. I certainly didn’t see that one coming, and I liked it a lot. Now, when we play Illinois, I have to worry that that one was just a fluke, and that we’ll go back to playing just like I thought we were going to last week. That won’t be pretty. As strange as it seems, Michigan is favored in the game. Though just by 2.5 at home, so it’s less than the home field advantage.

Four Interesting Games Between Unranked Teams - Duke (+14.5) at Georgia Tech. Duke won their first ACC game since about before their players were born last week, and they are clearly improved. Paul Johnson has made quite the impact in a short time at Georgia Tech. This is a way more interesting game than it would have been last year. Stanford (+7.5) at Notre Dame. The battle of the eggheads deatures two teams which are playing better than expected, and certainly better than last year. UConn (+6.5) at UNC. This would be one heck of a basketball game, but surprisingly it’s not a bad football game, either. UConn is ranked and on the rise, while Butch Davis is showing the world he is the real deal in Tar Heel country. Texas A&M (+25) at Oklahoma State. The Cowboys are ranked and looking good, but the real  interest here is how bizarre it is to see a team with a reasonable legacy like the Aggies be this badly respected.

Biggest Line - The biggest we have this week is a relativey modest 28.5, and that mark is shared by two games. BYU travels to terribly outmatched Utah State, while the independent Western Kentucky travels to the frustratingly inconsistent Hokies of Virginia Tech. Neither will be worth watching in any way.

1. The polls are essentially meaningless at this point in the season. Ranked teams that played unranked teams were 6-9 ATS this week. Five of those ranked teams lost their games despite being double digit favorites. The lower ranked team won both games played between ranked teams.

2. I know this doesn’t mean much because I previously said I was confident that USC was the best team in the country, but I am confident that Oklahoma is the best team in the country. Sam Bradford decimated a stout TCU defense, and the team has the swagger of a team that is good and knows it. Many would argue that Alabama is better. I can’t dispute how good they looked against Georgia, but I haven’t felt good about the Bulldogs since before this season started, and Alabama is so far ahead of where I expected them to be right now, that I need to wait to see a bit more from them before I am confident that they are as good as they look.

3. I am not sure how my beloved Michigan beat Wisconsin after getting just 21 yards on offense, and I don’t want to examine what it means about the Big Ten too closely, but I sure like it. The stunning halftime adjustment was truly impressive, and a bright sign of a happy future in the Rich Rodriguez era.

4. Tim Tebow will not win two Heisman’s, but Terrelle Pryor just might given the way he has started. He couldn’t get much going through the air on Saturday, so he did it on the ground. Scary.

5. I am endlessly fascinated by how a guy like John Parker Wilson can be just barely average for three years and can suddenly look like Joe Montana as a senior. Confidence is a strange thing. And having Julio Jones to throw to certainly doesn’t hurt in this case.

6. I don’t know how a guy like Mike Shanahan has managed to be in the NFL for as long as he has without learning that at least a little attention to defense is a good thing. The Broncos play very solid offense, but they are bad as it is possible to be on the other side of the ball. They made the Chiefs look like last year’s Patriots. It will be a while before I trust that Denver team again.

7. The Favre performance was impressive, and I can’t take anything away from it, but it never would have happened if Kurt Warner were even sort of capable of protecting the ball. I don’t understand how a guy like Warner can pass so well but totally turn his brain off otherwise. I like Warner a lot, but I am beginning to think that the time for the Leinart era is here.

8. I like Carolina. Quite a lot.

9. I’m thinking it might be time for me to start believing in the Titans. I still don’t get it, but it is getting harder and harder to deny it. It’s not just that they are winning, but that they are covering with ease. I guess that that tells us that I’m not the only one who has had trouble coming to terms with the team.

10. The most impressive performance in a loss this week was Matt Schaub. His job was in serious jeopardy, with fans and the media calling for Sage Rosenfels, yet he stepped up huge. He completed almost three quarters of his pases for 307 yards and three touchdowns against a decent Jacksonville defense, and he continued to develop a promising relationship with Steve Slaton. The Texans still lost, and their season is in danger of becoming a real disappointment, but I liked what Schaub showed.

The Blue Jays have extended Cito Gaston as manager through the 2010 season. Let me be the first to prematurely declare this team as one to watch next year. The tough AL East should be even tougher thanks to this move. It is no fluke that the Jays have been a much improved squad since the calming influence of Gaston has been in charge. He thinks offense, he doesn’t tolerate crap, and he has the respect of his charges. The team is 48-36 since Gaston took over, and made the AL East race more interesting. The team likely has a spot or two in the rotation to fill, and they still need a bat or two, but the core of this team is good enough to compete. A very good move.

Is Allan Houston freaking kidding? The Knicks’ fourth leading all-time scorer has announced that he is going to attempt another comeback with the Knicks this year. He retired in 2005 wth knee problems. He tried a comeback last year, but it was lame - he missed the first 10 days of camp because his wife had a child, then quit after just one exhibition game. Now he;s 37, and I find it virtually impossible to believe that his knees could hold up to the abuse that they would take under Mike D’Antoni’s offensive system. This is not an offensive approach for the fragile. This story likely won’t turn into much as Houston isn’t going to make the team, but it’s just one more distraction for a team that desperately needs to avoid distractions and get back to playing something resembling real basketball.

Matt Millen. What else is there left to say? He was brutal, and now he is gone. I think that the public is going to overestimate the positive impact of this one on the Lions. The fact is that the GM’s impact on a team mostly happens in the offseason. There are players to be added and subtracted during the season, but the meaningful moves are long done. This move, then, might provide a big boost to fans, and perhaps a smaller boost to the players who have had problems with him, but it isn’t going to have the substantive impact on the team that people will assume it will. People overreact to high profile injuries and quarterback changes, and they will overreact to this, too.

Monta Ellis said he hurt his ankle in a basketball accident. It turns out that it happened on a mo-ped. An injury is an injury, but that’s just funny. The Warriors, it seems, are cursed.

Once more with a look forward to the weekend:

Worst NFL game of the week - This is getting pretty easy. You just look at the games involving Kansas City and St. Louis and decide which one is more painful. That has worked so far, but I am actually going to do something different this time around. Kansas City hosts Denver. That won’t be exciting, and the Chiefs won’t win, but the Broncos have an explosive offense and should be able to burn up the scoreboard. Scoring is fun to watch. Buffalo visits St. Louis. That one will be interesting for a couple of reasons - we can see what Trent Edwards can do in a glorified practice, and we can see if Trent Green still has any game. That leaves me with my choice - Cleveland at Cincinnati. Two broken teams with enormous problems. The potential for true terribleness.

Best NFL game of the week - Washington and Dallas is an interesting divisional battle, and Philly at Chicago could be good, but my clear choice is one that wasn’t even on the radar at the start of the year - Minnesota at Tennessee. The Vikes are hungry and desperate for wins. The Titans are strong defensively, and surprisingly competent on offense. Probably won’t be an offensive thriller, but should be interesting, and will really be well coached.

Games with teams with most to prove - San Diego at Oakland. The Chargers have to rebuild from their horrible start, and keep the momentum going from Monday night. Oakland might have some pride, but their coach, if he is still their coach, is on a personal vendetta to make his owner look like the ridiculous moron he is.

Ridiculously over-hyped - No game specifically fits into this category, but you can rest assured that the Dallas hype machine is going to shift into an extra gear with every win.

Oddest line - Dallas (-11) vs. Washington. I get it that Dallas is very good, and I truly believe in them, but Washington is a decent team and a division rival that will be fired up with a coach that has a lot to prove. Dallas should certainly be favored, but I see it as a sign of public euphoria and nothing more that they are favored by this much.

Best college game of the week - The obvious choice would be Alabama at Georgia, but I am still on strike from the SEC until they prove that they can play interesting football with at least a hint of offense. This game should probably have that, but I’m still hesitant on principle. Instead, I am going to go out on a limb and pick one that the bookmakers think will be lopsided - TCU (+17.5) at Oklahoma. I am of the current but obviously fluid opinion that the Sooners are the second best team in the country. I’m also of the opinion that the Mountain West is very good - the fourth best conference in my eyes behind the SEC and the Big’s 12 and Ten. TCUhas played well on both sides of the ball this year, and will be on a mission. It could be close, or Oklahoma could put on a real show. Either way it is very interesting.

Filling me with dread - Michigan opens their conference schedule this week against Wisconsin. The Badgers are really good and Michigan really isn’t. Unless the Wolverines used their week off to recruit new players and learn to play football this one could get really ugly for my boys.

Four interesting games between unranked teams - North Carolina (+8) at Miami. Two ACC teams on a steady climb. Both have been better than expected this year so far. Only one can survive here. Fresno State (-6.5) at UCLA. Just how low can the Bruins go? It seems almost impossible to believe they started their season with an upset win. Buffalo (+6.5) at Central Michigan. This is a potential thriller between two impressive MAC teams that know how to score. The stakes are high in this one which could be a preview of the MAC Championship. Virginia Tech (+7) at Nebraska. So far, Bo Pellini has made it look easy. This is his first real test, though, so this is our chance to see just how far the Huskers have come.

Biggest line - Texas A&M is favored by 28 in a game that I can’t find any merit in whatsoever. Army is outclassed by virtually anyone in Division I, and the Aggies have been weak so far. Not a good game by any definition.

We’re going to try another new feature for the football season. Each Monday we are going to look back at some of the teams that the large majority of people weren’t backing that nonetheless managed to cover the spread. We’ll look back at their stats or their performance coming in to see what could have tipped us off to the eventual outcome. In other words, we’ll go back and make a case for betting on the eventual winners. This is my way of saying ‘I knew it all along’, even when I didn’t necessarily. This isn’t to suggest that the underdogs were always the right pick. It’s just that doing this can fulfill two important roles - it can potentially help us learn for next time, and it can be therapy to ease the pain of losses. Without further ado:

Tampa Bay (+3) at Chicago - Two thirds of bettors were on the Bears. They were wrong. The Bears made it into overtime, but they couldn’t pull it off in the end. Finding reasons to have backed the Bucs is easier than it will be in some cases. Brian Griese was getting the start, and he kew the Bears defense well from practicing against it. There was no way of predicting that he would throw the second most passes in NFL history, but it did seem reasonable to think that he would be fine. The Bears offense had been fine, but not great. Tampa Bay showed in week two that they could contain and frustrate a quarterback who has some talent but isn’t necessarily ready for prime time.

Carolina (+3.5) at Minnesota - Again two-thirds of bettors went the wrong way by backing Carolina. Again you could make a compelling case that they made the wrong decision (results aside). Minnesota needed a win badly, and has the talent and character to perform when their backs are against the wall. Gus Frerotte isn’t the best player in the league, but he has shown the ability in the past to step in in his first game and manage the game calmly. The Panthers had two nice wins coming in, but they hadn’t been dominant in either, their chemistry was going to be changed by the addition of Steve Smith this week, and they hadn’t faced a front seven this good yet. The Panthers would have been happy before the season if someone said that they would be 2-1, bu the Vikings wouldn’t have been at all pleased with 0-3, especially the way it had happened.

1. I think that I’m not yet convinced that Chase Daniel is the clear Heisman leader that people say he is. Sure, the stats are compelling - he’s top five in the country in completion percentage, passing yards, yards per attempt, yards per game, and touchdowns. He’s only been sacked once, and he’s thrown just one pick. On top of all that, he completed 20 in a row against Buffalo. Here’s the thing, though - he’s only played one BCS team - Illinois - and his stats in that game were significantly worse than the rest - his completion percentage was 25 points worse, his yards per attempt were much worse, and both the pick and the sack came in that game. It’s not exactly like the Illini are known for their stout defense, either. Don’t get me wrong, I like him and his team. I just want to hold judgment until he gets through his tough stretch of next four games - Nebraska, Oklahoma State, Texas, Colorado. That’s a much better test of where he is at than what we have seen so far.

2. As a Michigan fan, few things have been a bigger kick in the gut than watching Terrelle Pryor do his best Joe Montana imitation in Buckeye colors. For a guy making his first start, and a guy who is supposed to be a run-first QB, he looked as little like a raw, run-first QB as a guy can possibly look. He looked really, really good, all things considered. Of course, he’d look much, much better in maize and blue.

3. Teams like Vanderbilt are what makes college football simultaneously endlessly compelling and insanely frustrating. They enter the rankings at number 21 this week after starting out at 4-0. They’ve beaten two decent SEC teams already, and they are 4-0 ATS. Chris Nickson has been a decent two-dimensional QB who has avoided real mistakes. So what’s frustrating about that? The last time this team was ranked was briefly in 1984. More incredibly, the last time the team had a winning record was back in 1982 - well before an of their players was born. They are putting together a ver solid season, yet there wasn’t a lot of indication that it was coming, and there is no real way of knowing how long it will last. This team has gone from underdogs against Miami of Ohio to a ranked team. That’s not how the script was supposed to play out.

4. The Oregon quarterback situation is like something out of Disney. One of those ridiculous, totally unbelievable Disney flicks with Angels and that crap. They put in their fifth string QB on Saturday. Yes, fifth. Freshman Darron Thomas was going to redshirt, but they needed him after a stunning string of calamities. Nate Costa had a knee injury that ended his season. Justin Roper has had his bell rung too many times. Jeremiah Masoli is hearing bells, too, after a concussion. Chris Harper, a freshman, was next. He didn’t get hurt, he just wasn’t very good. That left it to Thomas, and that should have gone poorly. Very poorly. Instead, Thomas threw for 210 yards and three touchdowns. In one quarter. We can only assume at this rate that the guy in the Duck suit is going to be forced into action by game nine, and he’ll toss seven touchdowns or something.

5. The key to Atlanta’s success is obvious - play truly awful teams. They looked almost as good against Kansas City this week as they did against Detroit in the opening week. It was only when they played a fairly decent Tampa Bay team that things went awry. They have Oakland on the horizon, so that’s their chance to shine again. The problem, though, is that they have to get through Carolina, Green Bay, Chicago and Philadelphia before they hit the Raiders. I’m not even remotely fooled into believing that there is any legitimacy to the Falcons’ 2-1 record.

6. So much for writing off Ronnie Brown. A couple of weeks ago we were hearing rumblings that the Dolphins were sick of his act and that he could be on his way out of town. Not any more. If you missed it, Brown ran for four touchdowns on just 17 carries against the Patriots, and capped it off by throwing for a 19 yard TD, too. It was just one aspect of a stunningly dominant and wildly unpredictable runaway win by the Dolphins over the Pats - the first regular season loss for New England in 21 months. The craziest part of the very crazy game was that the Pats were able to exploit the same gimmick - a direct snap to Brown - six times, and the Pats weren’t able to adjust to it. Now the AFC East is a mess. New England is out of first place, and the Bills are in. The only problem is that the Bills are only there thanks to a last second win over lowly Oakland that was  much harder than it should have been. Their last second heroics are fun to watch, but sooner or later it will get the best of them. Or maybe not. Look at their schedule - 7-1 is a real possibility heading into their first game against New England. Like I said, the AFC East is a mess.

7. Who is that taking snaps for the Colts, and what has he done with Peyton Manning? The alarm bells should be sounding in that fancy new stadium of theirs.

8. Dallas is the best team in the league, and I don’t think that it is even close. I hate Marion Barber’s two fumbles, but that can be fixed. What I liked most about their win over Green Bay was that they beat a pretty decent team when Tony Romo was only okay.

9. Matt Schaub is not the answer in Houston. Not even close. He has only gone backwards since he took over the reins there, and the team won’t be any more than uninspiring with him at the helm without a major, major change. I can’t come up with a single good reason not to give Sage Rosenfels his shot. On the plus side, Steve Slaton had a heck of a game, and gave us yet more proof of how impressively deep this freshman running back class is.

10. Marvin Lewis is still the worst coach in the pros. It’s not even close, and taking the Giants to overtime does nothing to change that. Charlie Weis maintained his grip on worst college coach, too, though Bill Stewart is staking his claim.

If you guessed that today we would be looking at the 0-2 teams then give yourself a pat on the back. There are ten winless squads, and those range from the absolutely inevitable to the absolutely shocking. We’ll go alphabetically agan:

Cincinnati - Let me say it yet again - Marvin Lewis is the worst coach in professional football, and he has wasted a stunning amount of offensive talent. He seems to have lost the respect of his team, they can’t score, they don’t play defense, and this season is lost. I hope they play so badly this year that Lewis never gets another job - no other team’s fans deserve to go through what he has put Cincinnati through. I don’t even like the Bengals, and I have never been to Cincinnati, but I’m still offended by this guy.

Cleveland - I though that the Browns’ fans were being a bit premature with their Super Bowl chants in the preseason, but I am surprised by how bad this team has been. The defense is non-existent, Braylon Edwards has been terrible, and Derek Anderson has come back to earth. Of course, it doesn’t help that they opened with Pittsburgh and Dallas - the toughest one-two punch of any team in the league. Things will get better for this team and the start will just be a bad memory, but the playoffs are a longshot.

Detroit - Matt Millen is the Marvin Lewis of general managers. I don’t understand how this team is as bad as they are, and I don’t know why I keep getting sucked into thinking they are better. They are going to win a few games this year, but not enough to justify giving Millen even an ounce of respect.

Jacksonville - I boldy predicted that this team would not only win their division but also the AFC. Moron. Their offensive line has been as bad as any a contender has fielded in a long, long time. That has meant that the running game has been stifled, and that David Garrard has had to run for his life regularly - something he doesn’t do a good job of at all. Injuries will heal and this team will improve, but I don’t think they will reach their goal of finishing ahead of the Colts.

Kansas City - Tyler Thigpen is their third starting QB of the year. This is only their third game. The team has consciously chosen to start Thigpen. What else do you need to know. After getting blown out by the Raiders last week, this team has a look at 0-16. I know how hard that is, so I am not getting my hopes up. Still, this team is really, really, really not good.

Miami - Some people seemed to expect more than this, but I can’t understand why. They are making good progress, and they have certainly looked better than they did at times last year. They still have all sorts of issues, though, and they are a long way from complete. They will be some sort of respectable this year, but they are a couple of years away from being good, and that’s assuming Chad Henne figures out how to play. He looked good in late action last week.

Minnesota - I had high hopes for the Vikings coming into the season. That was before I knew just hw little progress Tarvaris Jackson had made, that their left tackle situation would be such a mess to start, or that their defense wouldn’t gel immediately. I like the move to Gus Frerotte, and I expect the losing ways to come to an end soon. Like this week.

San Diego - Stop me if you have heard this before - amid high expectations the Chargers have struggled out of the gate. That’s been the same story in five of the last six seasons, and I am getting sick of it. They can blame the officials all they want, but it really comes down to the fact that something in their locker room is broken. Probably the mirror, because that’s where the problem is. If the past is any indicator, they’ll soon get their act together and coact along until the playoffs - their playground for underachievement.

Seattle - Before the season I thought it seemed lie a bad idea to operate with a lame duck coach. Two games into the season I am even more convinced of that. They have had laughably bad luck with receivers, but that doesn’t explain their lackadaisical play elsewhere on the field, or their seeming disinterest. This team will do fine, but for the first time in what seems like decades I am far from convinced that they will win their division.

St. Louis - My computer’s thesaurus doesn’t have enough synonyms for bad to describe this team. I won’t even try. Needless to say, there are not a lot of reasons for hope.

Based on the title of this article a detective could probably figure out what we are going to look at tomorrow. Before then, though, let’s assess which of the 2-0 teams seem like they are for real, and which ones are lucky to be where they are. There are ten teams that have yet to lose. We’ll take a quick look at each of them, and we’ll do it alphabetically to avoid any claims of bias:

Arizona - I’m happy to see the Cards off to a strong start, and am especially pleased to see Kurt Warner playing as well as he is. That being said, their record is a bit hollow. You don’t get a lot of style points for beating San Francisco and St. Louis. The problem, then, is that we don’t know how good these guys are, and that’s troubling now that they are heading into a much tougher schedule up to their bye week. In their first two games in October they host Buffalo and Dallas. That will be a telling stretch. I think that the Cards have what it takes to win the NFC West, but that doesn’t take much.

Buffalo - I spent some time in Buffalo before he season, and the city was incredibly optimistic. Their recipe for success so far isn’t much of a surprise - the defense has been very good, and Trent Edwards is playing well within himself. A comeback win in Jacksonville is impressive even if the Jags don’t have an o-line. With Oakland, St. Louis and Arizona up next this team could easily head into their bye at 5-0. That would make things very interesting. I am confidently going to say that this is a playoff team - it doesn’t take too much imagination to find 10 or 11 wins on their schedule.

Carolina - You have to give a team big credit when they win twice without their best player. They haven’t run over easy opponents either, and they needed to come back in their opener against San Diego. I liked this team coming nto the season, and  like them even more now. Jake Delhomme is a perfect game manager, and I mean that as a compliment. The defense is stout, and the team is playing well together. I don’t think they will stay on top of their conference, but I do think the playoffs are a real possibility.

Dallas - So, so much has been said about this team, and much of it is true. Their ofense is as good as any in the league. Their defense isn’t yet as good as its parts, but it will improve. They will win the NFC East and have a first round bye. Nothing this team does until January matters at all. I have no problem at all right now calling this the best team in the league, and I was saying that before Tom Brady was injured, too.

Denver - I have to admit that I am a bit surprised by this one. I didn’t love their defense coming into the season, and I still don’t. I underestimated just how far Jay Cutler had progressed, and how much of a impact Eddie Royal would have right away. They won last time in part because of a terrible call, but I think they deserve real credit for being in position to benefit from that call - the Chargers should have had them firmly under control. I still don’t think that his is an elite team, but I’m not convinced that they will be nable to hold off San Diego given a two game lead, either. I don’t love them, but I am learning to respect them. Their last three - at Carolina, Buffalo, at San Diego - are brutal, and could be a real test of their legitimacy if they are still in the picture by then.

Green Bay - I have been wrong about this team all along, so I don’t know why you would listen to me now. I like a lot of the pieces, but I have a hard time believing that Aaron Rodgers can make a smooth transition to starter, or that he can stay healthy all season. So far I have been proven completely wrong, but I still hold out some hope that I haven’t completely missed the boat. Regardless, I think they will pretty much win their division by default given the problems with the Vikings.

New England - Even with Matt Cassel at the helm they still have a huge skill edge across the board on virtually every team in the league. The rumors of their demise post-injury have been ridiculously exaggerated. I still think their playoff spot is a total lock, and I give them a solid edge over Buffalo to win the division. Matt Cassel has shown he can manage the game very well, and this is an offense designed to make a QB look good.

New York Giants - I absolutely do not believe in this team. They didn’t look great against an awful Washington team in their opener, and then they picked on a useless St. Louis team. Incredibly, their schedule doesn’t get much harder for another month. But then it gets tough. I have looked silly in the recent past counting this team out, but I will fearlessly do it again. I would be more surprised if they made the playoffs than if they didn’t.

Pittsburgh - How is Big Ben’s shoulder? That’s the only big question I have here. I don’t like any of their other options nearly as much as Roethlisberger at this point. If he is okay then I like this team. A lot. They will win their division by default, and are in contention for a bye. I think - we’ll have a much better sense after they play Philly on Sunday.

Tennessee - I’ve been stymied by this team this year. They have had distractions galore, yet they have overcome them all. In retrospect, their wins weren’t as hard to see as I made them - Jacksonville is flawed, and Cincinnati is terrible. Their schedule is pretty average and manageable if they play well, so it all comes down to how well Kerry Collins can play. I’m not sure how confident that makes me feel.

Stories about people are usually the most interesting parts of sports, and today we have all sorts of interesting people stories to keep us interested:

I’m not surprised to hear that the Vikings have decided to put Tarvaris Jackson on the bench. He hasn’t been helping his team at all so far, and the team has to do something now before it is too late to salvage the season. That seems ridiculous to say after just two games, but that’s how the league is. What I am surprised about, though, is that the team has name Gus Frerotte the starter for the rest of the seasonn. If the team was willing to get rid of Jackson that easily then why did they wait until now, and why didn’t they find a better option than Gus Frerotte? This move doesn’t give me a ton of faith in a coaching staff that I thought was ready for big things before the season started.

Gilbert Arenas has gone through a third knee surgery and is out until the end of November. I wish that that was more surprising. I like Agent Zero a lot, and I don’t think the Wizards made a bad move by signing him to a big new contract this year. I just don’t like to hear about this. He rushed back from his first surgery. That necessitated the second, and now the third is because the second hasn’t responded as well to rehab as hoped - some debris in the knee is causiing problems. I hpe that he can get back to top form, but I will be holding off betting on him when he returs until we get a good assessment of where he is at. I know that his problems are much different than micro-fracture surgery, but I can’t help but think of how long it took Amare Stoudamire to return to top form after he came back from a knee issue. Some of that was physical, but a bigger part of it was mental. Arenas is as explosive and creative as Stoudamire, so a mental impediment from not entirely trusting the knee could be a problem for a while.

Bob Sanders is going to miss at least six weeks with knee and ankle problems. Needless to say, this is not good news for the Colts. It goes bigger than a hole on the defense, though. The Colts have been lethargic and disinterested this season (except for in the last few minutes of the comeback against the Vikings). Sanders is a spark plug player, and the type of guy who can fire up a team that needs firing up. I have been less optimistic than most about the Colts anyway, but this makes my view even dimmer.

The Tigers announced yesterday that Kenny Rogers wouldn’t pitch any more this year. I laughed when I read a couple of media sources saying that the team had declined to disclose any injury information about Rogers. I can tell you exactly what the injury information is - Rogers is a dick and the Tigers, in the midst of a horrible year, are sick of his crap. He’s not under contract, and my guess is that the name plate is already off his locker.

Time to look forward to what the football weekend has to offer again:

Worst NFL game of the week - I was tempted to go with Kansas City ay Atlanta, because the Chiefs are awful and the Falcons aren’t ready for prime time yet. The Falcons should be able to run and score some points, though, and that is always fun to watch. That rules out this game. Many would argue that it is Detroit at San Francisco, but my well documented soft spot for the Niners eliminates that possibility. Besides, San Fracisco isn’t as bad as people think. My choice is St. Louis at Seattle. The Rams are terrible and seemingly self-destructing, and even with two new additions today the Seahawks won’t have a full, healthy, operating receiver corps. They have looked listless so far, and I am not hopeful for a dramatic turnaround.

Best NFL game of the week - Before the season I would have guessed that it would have been Jacksonville at Indy, but neither team has been particularly inspiring so far. The clear pick now is Dallas at Green Bay. This is Aaron Rodger’s biggest test yet, and our chance to see if he is actually human.

Game with teams with most to prove - This is where that Jacksonville - Indy game comes in. Indy needs to prove that they have an offense, and they can replace the productivity of a suddenly aged Marvin Harrison. Jacksonville has been terrible offensively, and needs to run or pass or avoid getting sacked or quit throwing interceptions or do something that at least somewhat reflects the actions of a decent team.

Ridiculously over-hyped - Pittsburgh at Philadeplphia. I know this is just my pre-existing biases talking, but the Battle of Pennsylvania bores me. And especialy now that Big Ben has shoulder issues.

Oddest line - Unlike last week, none really jump out. One interesting thing, though - last week there were six road favorites, this week just one. Too bad, too - they were 5-1 ATS last week.

Best college game of the week - Unlike last week, we don’t really have a marquee matchup here. The top game in terms of ranking is LSU at Auburn, but after last week I refuse to get excited about SEC football. Call me when you learn to score. Before the season I was excited about Georgia at Arizona State, but the Sun Devils’ loss to UNLV last weekend popped that balloon. In terms of pure layers of intrigue, the West Virginia - Colorado game on Thursday is as good as any. Troy at Ohio State could be interesting, too - Troy is solid, and it will be fascinating to see how Ohio State bounces back from their debacle. I’m going to take the coward’s way out, though, and not call one clear winner in this category.

Filling me with dread - Thankfully, I am dread-free this weekend because Michigan will be sitting at home - hopefully with balls taped to their rosin covered hands so they can learn not to fumble on every touch.

Four interesting games between unranked teams - Florida Atlantic (+7) at Minnesota. Last Year Florida Atlantic won teh Sun Belt and seemed to be on the rise, but they have struggled to find their way so far. Minnesota has been a pleasant surprise. These teams met last year and the Owls sprung the upset, so the Gophers will be out for revenge. Arizona (-2.5) at UCLA. Two disgraced conference rivals who have to bounce back from serious embarrassment. Virginia Tech (+2) at North Carolina. The Hokies have fallen so far from their preseason perch that they are dogs to the Tar Heels. Ouch. This is Butch Davis’ chance to see how close his team is to respectability. Notre Dame (+8.5) at Michigan State. My favorite team from Michigan couldn’t get it done, but the Spartans sure will. The Irish won’t know what hit them  - it’s not as easy t win when the other team doesn’t do all the work for you. Javon Ringer will go for about 7,000 yards in this one.

Biggest line - Buffalo (+34) at Missouri. I wish ths wasn’t so. Anyone who has been reading along here knows that I am high on Buffalo. They are fun to watch and very well coached. They are feisty and could be tough. On the other hand, Missouri has just looked like a machine all year, and likely will again here. My inclination is to think that this line is too big, but I fully acknowledge that that could just be wishful thinking on my part.