Maddux Sports Blog

Time to look forward to what the football weekend has to offer again:

Worst NFL game of the week - I was tempted to go with Kansas City ay Atlanta, because the Chiefs are awful and the Falcons aren’t ready for prime time yet. The Falcons should be able to run and score some points, though, and that is always fun to watch. That rules out this game. Many would argue that it is Detroit at San Francisco, but my well documented soft spot for the Niners eliminates that possibility. Besides, San Fracisco isn’t as bad as people think. My choice is St. Louis at Seattle. The Rams are terrible and seemingly self-destructing, and even with two new additions today the Seahawks won’t have a full, healthy, operating receiver corps. They have looked listless so far, and I am not hopeful for a dramatic turnaround.

Best NFL game of the week - Before the season I would have guessed that it would have been Jacksonville at Indy, but neither team has been particularly inspiring so far. The clear pick now is Dallas at Green Bay. This is Aaron Rodger’s biggest test yet, and our chance to see if he is actually human.

Game with teams with most to prove - This is where that Jacksonville - Indy game comes in. Indy needs to prove that they have an offense, and they can replace the productivity of a suddenly aged Marvin Harrison. Jacksonville has been terrible offensively, and needs to run or pass or avoid getting sacked or quit throwing interceptions or do something that at least somewhat reflects the actions of a decent team.

Ridiculously over-hyped - Pittsburgh at Philadeplphia. I know this is just my pre-existing biases talking, but the Battle of Pennsylvania bores me. And especialy now that Big Ben has shoulder issues.

Oddest line - Unlike last week, none really jump out. One interesting thing, though - last week there were six road favorites, this week just one. Too bad, too - they were 5-1 ATS last week.

Best college game of the week - Unlike last week, we don’t really have a marquee matchup here. The top game in terms of ranking is LSU at Auburn, but after last week I refuse to get excited about SEC football. Call me when you learn to score. Before the season I was excited about Georgia at Arizona State, but the Sun Devils’ loss to UNLV last weekend popped that balloon. In terms of pure layers of intrigue, the West Virginia - Colorado game on Thursday is as good as any. Troy at Ohio State could be interesting, too - Troy is solid, and it will be fascinating to see how Ohio State bounces back from their debacle. I’m going to take the coward’s way out, though, and not call one clear winner in this category.

Filling me with dread - Thankfully, I am dread-free this weekend because Michigan will be sitting at home - hopefully with balls taped to their rosin covered hands so they can learn not to fumble on every touch.

Four interesting games between unranked teams - Florida Atlantic (+7) at Minnesota. Last Year Florida Atlantic won teh Sun Belt and seemed to be on the rise, but they have struggled to find their way so far. Minnesota has been a pleasant surprise. These teams met last year and the Owls sprung the upset, so the Gophers will be out for revenge. Arizona (-2.5) at UCLA. Two disgraced conference rivals who have to bounce back from serious embarrassment. Virginia Tech (+2) at North Carolina. The Hokies have fallen so far from their preseason perch that they are dogs to the Tar Heels. Ouch. This is Butch Davis’ chance to see how close his team is to respectability. Notre Dame (+8.5) at Michigan State. My favorite team from Michigan couldn’t get it done, but the Spartans sure will. The Irish won’t know what hit them  - it’s not as easy t win when the other team doesn’t do all the work for you. Javon Ringer will go for about 7,000 yards in this one.

Biggest line - Buffalo (+34) at Missouri. I wish ths wasn’t so. Anyone who has been reading along here knows that I am high on Buffalo. They are fun to watch and very well coached. They are feisty and could be tough. On the other hand, Missouri has just looked like a machine all year, and likely will again here. My inclination is to think that this line is too big, but I fully acknowledge that that could just be wishful thinking on my part.

Excellent defensive display in the NFC East tonight. The line movement was interesting in that one, especially on the total. Three quarters of bettors were on the over, yet the total opened at 48 and dropped down to 46.5 or lower. A move like that generally indicates either that either a good deal of smart money is on the under, or that the books favor the under, so they want to do everything they can to encourage bets on the over. Either way, the books would have had a bad night on that front - the teams didn’t just go over, they obliterated the total.

Strange vibes coming out the Yankees camp. Jorge Posada came out in an interview this week and suggested that Joba Chamberlain would be better coming out of the bullpen than as a starter. He said that the tendinitis that kept Chamberlain out of action for a month or so was a sign that he can’t hold up to the strains of being a full time starter. I think that Posada s exactly right, but that’s not the point. What is surprising is that Posada would come out and say it when the organization has seemed committed to the starting path. That’s not the kind of thing that would have been tolerated back in the day, but now it was said in an interview on the Yankees’ own network. That’s all a round-about way of saying that I don’t have a lot of faith in this current admnistration in the Bronx.

Very interesting move by the Brewers today in firing their manager with two weeks left. It was the right move, I guess - they were in freefall and needed a shake-up. It just seems very risky and could backfire. On the other hand, I’m not in the clubhouse so I don’t know how Yost’s relationship with the team was going, and so my opinion isn’t worth much here. Either the brass in Milwaukee will look brilliant or this will look monumentally stupid. The best hope, it seems, would be for the Brewers to hope that some of the karma is ther stadium rubs off on them - The Cbus went for seven hitless innings today after a no-no yesterday while they were borrowing Milwaukee’s stadium because Houston’s was in the path of Hurricane Ike.

The Pac-10 stinks. Sure, they have a ridiculously scary at the top that should cruise to an undefeated record, but beyond that there is pretty much nothing. All ten teams played this weekend, but only three won, and only two covered. The conference played the Mountain West four times this weekend, and neither won nor covered once. Two of their teams dropped out of the top 25, and there isn’t a team in there that appears to be a serious threat for anything. Oregon is the one team that is maybe promising, or at least they were until they lost yet another quarterback to injury. My beloved Big Ten gets a lot of abuse, but we look good compared to the Pac-10. And yes, I know about the Ohio State debacle, but I only barely consider them a part of the conference. The part of the conference that isn’t in Ohio went 7-2 on the weekend.

By the way, the lowly Big East was 2-2, and the lousy ACC was 6-3, though they played two conference games so they were 4-1 out of conference. The SEC was very strong - they went 8-2, and the only two losses were in conference games. The Big 12 was dominant, too - they went 6-2, and 6-1 ATS. If you’re following along, you’ll notice that the Pac-10was the only BCS conference that didn’t win the majority of their games. They don’t have the excuse of tough opponents to fall back on, either.

Maryland confounds me. I like them and they are terrible. I write them off and they pull a huge upset. They’ve earned a spot on my never-play list, and they’ll have to work hard to get off of it.

Oklahoma is spectacular.  I am fairly certain that USC is the best team in the country, but I have no doubt that Oklahoma deserves their new number two ranking. Sam Bradford is a beast, and the defense s terrifying. I can’t believe that Bradford wasn’t the designated starter at the beginning of last season. It’s way, way too early to do so, of course, but I am already looking forward to the prospect of an Oklahoma-Missouri Big 12 Championship game. Bradford and Chase Daniel could cause the scoreboard to explode.

As a Michigan fan, I have decided that the easiest thing to do is to just pretend that that game never happened. It was proof of just two things. First, you can’t win a game when you turn the ball over every time you touch it. Second, Notre Dame isn’t ready for prime time. The Wolverines made them look good, but they still have more problems than anything reasonably approximating a good team can have. This win might get the public more excited about Notre Dame football, but they really shouldn’t be.

Wow, do I ever hate SEC football. I respect the conference, and I think they are probably the best conference out there, but when their teams get together they redefine boredom. Georgia and South Carolina took 60 minute to accomplish little, but their 14-7 game looked like an offensive explosion compared to the 3-2 mess that was the Auburn - Mississippi State game.

Let me say yet again what I say every week and will keep saying until he is replaced - Marvin Lewis is a truly awful football coach who is wasting a stunning amount of offensive talent. The Bengals were as bad as a team can be this weekend. Again.

I’d been calling Oakland the worst team in the league. Now I have Kansas City and St. Louis in a tie. The Rams are so bad I can’t even find words for it. Kansas City has already used three QBs in two games, and none have been worth a damn.

I’m getting tired of apologizing to Aaron Rodgers, but I have to do it again. Again, I have no idea where that performance came from, but I have to give him credit. He was spectacular, Favre was bland with the Jets, and people are about to forget that there was ever a controversy. I’m going to learn from this experience and keep my opinion that he will crash down to earth sooner or later to myself.

I guess we don’t have to fear too much for the Pats. Matt Cassel was fine, and their talent advantage pretty much everywhere else on the field was enough was enough. The thing to watch, though, is how Randy Moss behaves. He only had two catches today, and that won’t be anywhere near enough to please him.

I was really high on Jacksonville and Minnesota in the AFC. They are a combined 0-4. Oops.

Buffalo is a good team. Clearly the second best n the AFC East, they have clear playoff potential.

It turns out that Matt Ryan and Michael Turner are only superhuman when they aren’t playing against a defense.

JaMarcus  Russell - 6/17 for 55 yards. Unbelievably far away from acceptable. The worst part wasn’t how he played. It was thatit’s hard to see signs that he might improve any time soon. It doesn’t help that Oakland is such a mess. I hope Lane Kiffin does get fired this week as reported - not because he deserves it, but because the whole situation is obviously broken - shattered - and maybe a new coach can turn things around a bit. Of course, Al Davis isn’t going anywhere, so the prospects are bleak.

If I was the Vikings’ GM I would be calling Tampa Bay now and every three minutes until the Bucs agree to trade Jeff Garcia to Minnesota. It shouldn’t be hard to make happen - Garcia is out of favor. He’s not going to perform miracles, but he is stable and more than competent, and he is so much better than Tarvaris Jackson it isn’t funny. Jackson might develop eventually, but Minnesota is too talented to waste this year waiting for him to come around.

Greg Schiano should have taken one of the jobs he was offered before he quit looking like a genius at Rutgers. That loss to North Carolina last night was very, very ugly. Butch Davis is going to turn NC around, but not that quickly or dramatically.

Until Beanie Wells steps on the field or the game ends I am not going to believe a single thing that is said about his status. He’s fine, then out, then uncertain, then fine then out again, then maybe fine. Ridiculous. Frustrating for everyone but those who are Buckeyes’ backers. This will only make the underdog line more attractive.

This whole Vince Young situation is a mess, and a good example of how the media doesn’t make things better. He says he is fine and the whole thing has been blown out of proportion, but I can’t imagine that Jeff Fisher would have involved a psychiatrist or the police if things were hunky-dory. I don’t see how the team can not be distracted, but then it’s not like Young is a big loss right now given his play. The only thing I know for sure is that the Titans will likely be a pass until the dust settles a bit.

I’m really looking forward to when the USC - Ohio State game is over. The hype and coverage is out of control.

I feel like the Kansas - USF game isn’t going to be close. I just can’t convince myself which team is going to come out ahead.

I’m glad we don’t have hurricanes where I live.

The more news I hear out of San Diego, the more concerned I get about the Chargers. Is there a healthy player on that roster?

What’s wrong with the NL Central? The Cubs can’t win, the Brewers can’t take advantage of it, and now the Astros are mounting a charge. Of the three I’m most concerned about the Cubs - they got this far partly due to pitching, and the pitching is getting harder and harder to trust.

I was just about ready to count out the Rays. They were going to make the playoffs, but I was seriously doubting that they would do anything once they got there. But then the last two game happened. Twice they got into tight spots against the Red Sox, and twice they found a way to win. It wasn’t easy, either. The first time they had to beat Jonathan Papelbon. That rarely happens. The second time around they hung around in a 1-1 game until the 14th before erupting for three runs. I’m still not viewing the Rays as my favorites, but they keep showing guts that I wasn’t sure they had, and that will be very useful in the playoffs.

I’m generally not one to overestimate the impact of injuries or panic when a player gets knocked out, but as a guy who was looking forward to betting the Saints this year I am worried about the Marques Colston injury. He’s been by far the favorite target of Drew Brees, and losing a target like that can be hard for a guy to get over. New Orleans has lots of receivers, but none that obviously can step up and fill the gap left by Colston. That being said, Colston emerged from basically nowhere, so who knows what could happen. It’s about time that Robert Meachem started to earn his millions. The injury won’t turn me off of the team, but it will probably make me pass on them next week until I see what happens. On the other hand, I’m not sure it matters who is at receiver when they play the Redskins given how Washington looked in their first game.

The Pirates secured their 16th consecutive losing season today. How is that possible? How has the team not folded? How has someone not bombed the team’s headquarters? That’s the most ridiculous, incomprehensible stat I have ever seen.

Manny Ramirez may be the best deadline acquisition ever. He’s hitting the lights out, and the team can’t lose with him. They are running away from the Diamondbacks, and the playoffs are theirs for the taking. Man Ram will bring a very interesting element to the playoffs as well - something that the NL is going to need since the Mets are dreary, the Cubs are slumping badly, and the Brewers are only fearsome when Sabathia is pitching.

The betting public is composed of suckers. That, of course, is why sportsbooks exist. I’m sure that every time a reasonably unexpected player has a big performance the books just laugh and figure out how they are going to spend all of the extra money that they are going to make. That’s because the public assumes that any performance, no matter how gaudy or unexpected, is completely sustainable. If a players has a huge game this week, public logic dictates that they wll do it again the next week, and they bet accordingly. They usually won’t, obviously, and that will often cost the overly eager public some cash. Here are five players (six, actually) who could prove costly:

Eddie Royal, Denver Broncos - This second round receiver out of Virginia Tech was a true beast on Monday Night. He had nine catches for 146 yards and a touchdown, and he made the secondary look consistently ridiculous. That was only against the Raiders, though. DeAngelo Hall played as bad as a corner can play, and the Raiders were confused and generally useless. Royal isn’t going to find it that easy from now on, and neither will the Denver offense.

Matt Ryan and Michael Turner, Atlanta Falcons - I’ll group these two together for obvious reasons. Both guys had much better debuts than I expected, but they are going to come back to earth. First, they were only playing Detroit last time out. I could have looked good against the Lions given how they looked. I expect both guys to have decent years, and perhaps more than that in Turner’s case, but it isn’t always going to be as smooth and easy as it looked on Sunday. THe public doesn’t agree with me - more than 70 percent of bets so far have been on the Falcons as they make their first road start in Tampa.

Dante Rosario, Carolina Panthers - Rosario is the tight end who made the huge, game winning catch at the end of the game against San Diego. He’s a second year player out of Oregon. He didn’t play much last year, but he had a huge first game this year. The media, predictably, is being ridiculous. I have now twice read people comparing him to Antonio Gates, and telling readers how he will revolutionize the Carolina offense. He almost certainly won’t, but you won’t be able to tell that to the public if they don’t want to listen.

Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers - Rodgers had a very good debut for the Pack, and suddenly many in the media are writing as if Favre is a distant memory and the team has made a serious upgrade. I have high hopes for Rodgers in the long term, but he isgoing to struggle along the way.

Matt Forte, Chicago Bears - This second round runner out of Tulane is the real deal. He was the MVP of the Senior Bowl. He had a heck of a pro debut, too - 23 carries for 123 yards and a TD. In the eyes of many, the Bears’ running woes have been solved. Maybe, but I’m not convinced yet. The Bears played a surprisingly listless Colts team, and they clearly benefitted from that. Things won’t always be so easy for Mr. Forte.

Shawne Merriman is done for the season. He’s chosen to get the surgery on his knee because he is ineffective without it. Only a genius could have seen this shocking development coming. Ridiculous. I want the last two weeks of my life back - all I heard was talk about him, and all for nothing. Listening to all that made me long for Favre talk.

We’re starting something new. Every Tuesday during the football season we are going to do a look ahead at what the coming weekend has to offer - the highs and lows, the betting intrigue, the clear stay-aways, the fun stories. Without further ado…

Worst game of the week (and perhaps ever) - There is absolutely no contest here. Kansas City is a four point favorite at home against the Raiders. I could spend every minute between now and kickoff trying to come up with a single nice thing to say about each team and I couldn’t do it. Terrible, awful, thoroughly irredeemable game. The sad part is that this used to be such a classic rivalry. Pathetic.

Best NFL game of the week - The obvious choice would be the Monday night Philly-Dallas game, but choosing that wouldn’t be very original, and I’m not sure it will live up to the hype. Pittsburgh and Cleveland has promise, but I am justifiably scared of Cleveland after the Dallas game. That leaves me with my choice - Buffalo at Jacksonville. Buffalo played one of the three best games of the first week (along with Dallas and Pittsburgh). Jacksonville was embarrassed by Tennessee and will be looking to bounce back strong. This one could be a classic. Jacksonville is favored by six.

Games with teams with most to prove - San Diego at Denver. The Chargers were should be disgusted by how they started and ended their opener against Carolina. They have a clear chance to be the class of the AFC now, but they have to be much, much better to do so. Denver looked surprisingly complete on Monday night, but that probably doesn’t mean much since it only came against Oakland. They will be looking to prove that they are legitimate, and nothing would do that better than a win here. San Diego is only favored by one.

Ridiculously over-hyped - The Jets - Pats game is still five days away and already I am sick of hearing about it. I will obviously watch the game, but likely with the sound off - the announcers will be tripping over themselves finding new ways to describe the Brady situation.

Oddest line - At first glance it seems odd that Seattle is favored by nine over the Niners. San Francisco has all sorts of troubles, but so does Seattle. The Hawks have more receiver problems than seems possible, and now the story has come out that Hasselbeck has a bulging disk. On top of that they are coming off a truly awful performance on both sides of the ball. It’s hard to see a reason I would want to trust them to win by 10.

Mildly interesting stat - The Patriots are currently underdogs against the Jets. They were never underdogs last year. It only happened three times the year before, and they covered all three times.

Truly strange - I have started as many football games in my life as Matt Cassel has since he graduated high school. I have never played football.

Best college game of the week - A no-brainer, obviously. I truly believe that the winner of the USC - Ohio State game will be in the BCS championship game. The public clearly thinks that that will be USC - they are favored by 10.5. If it weren’t for that one then my vote would be for Wisconsin - Fresno State. The Bulldogs are for real, and this is their chance to prove it against a very good team in their home stadium. Kansas - South Florida is another interesting one between two teams that have to prove that last year was no fluke. I’m also ver interested to see if BYU looks better this week, and how UCLA comes back from a huge upset win.

Filling me with dread - I watched Notre Dame play San Diego State. It was a painfully inept, thoroughly disgusting display of shoddy football. Awful. But now the Irish play my beloved Wolverines. If Michigan can’t beat that hopeless team it will be very hard to take. I’d probably even cry. Sadly, the odds reflect the reality of the situation - the game is currently a pick ‘em.

Four interesting games between unranked teams - Florida Atlantic (+17) at Michigan State. The Spartans have been surprisingly solid, and Florida ATlantic’s QB Rusty Smith is an underappreciated talent. Georgia Tech (+7) at Virginia Tech. The Hokies have a lot to prove after losing to East Carolina, and they have to do it against a team riding high under a new coach and a new system. Southern Miss (+2) at Arkansas State. Southern Miss scored 51 in their first game. Arkansas State racked up 83 last week. This one could be a shootout. Rice (+7) at Vanderbilt. A battle of the upstarts.

Biggest line - LSU is favored by 41 over North Texas. They last met in 2005, and the Tigers won by 53. The trick here will be to get the game in. For the second straight week a hurricane is impacting LSU fotball. They had to cancel last week, and they may have to move the game this week. The next biggest is for Texas Tech, which is favored by 36.5 over SMU. SMU isn’t good (obviously), but June Jones is in his first year on the job there, and you can guarantee he’ll have his team at their best (for what that’s worth). If they can disrupt Graham Harrell like Nevada dd last week then this one could be mildly interesting. I’m not suggesting a possible upset, or even a likely cover by the dogs, but at least this one is vastly more interesting than the North Texas one.

I was going to call this post Monday’s Insights, but this first weekend of the NFL has made it perfectly clear to me that insights are an endangered species. The Vikings were the latest problem. I have been high on this team for more than a year now. Tonight they rewarded my faith by looking very, very average. Tarvaris Jackson made it increasingly difficult to imagine he has a bright future with a lackluster performance that was short of compelling excuses. Adrian Peterson was Adrian Peterson, with 103 yards and a touchdown. I have one huge question for the Minny staff after watching the game - why in the world did Peterson only get 19 touches? He was effective. Not much else was. What were you waiting for? You only lost by five, so another 10 carries could have made the difference.

I have to give Aaron Rodgers credit. 18 of 22, 178 yards, a touchdown. 35 yards and a TD on the ground. Nothing wrong with that. Much, much better than I expected of him. Another brilliant insight on my part.

It’s only halftime of the second game, but I have seen enough to emphatically declare Oakland a total nightmare. They look dazed and confused, they are getting torched by Eddie Royal, a rookie receiver, DeAngelo Hall is embarrassing himself, there appears to be no gameplan, and no ability to achieve it even if there was one. Lane Kiffin is in a terrible situation, but he still should be embarrassed by the team he put on the field.

I find the Seahawks receiver situation hilarious, and I know that that might make me a bad person. Nate Burleson tripped over his feet in Buffalo and tore his ACL. Bye-bye season. That’s too bad - he’s a good receiver and he had a TD already. Burleson joins pretty much every other receiver the team has on the injured list. Bobby Engram won’t be back from a broken shoulder until next month. Deion Branch is out indefinitely with knee problems of his own. Ben Obomanu is on the IR. The team now has three active receivers on the roster, and I guarantee that casual football fans will never have heard of any of them. THe team is looking for a veteran, shifting players off the practice squad, and apparently seriously considering moving backup QB Seneca Wallace over to wideout. Very, very strange situation.

I caught Roger Federer’s final at the U.S. Open this afternoon. Ridiculously, indescribably dominant. He made Andy Murray look like a little girl. That should shut the critics up a bit. It was getting frustrating hearing how he was done - he ended the year with a grand slam, two more grand slam finals, and a semi in the fourth. Not bad for a guy with mono. The good part of the criticism was that you could bet on him in the final at -190. That’s a ridiculous price for the guy, and one I jumped at.

1. Notre Dame is awful. I was pretty sure that the experts who were saying that Notre Dame was going to win nine or ten games this year were crazy. Now I know for sure. They rallied to beat San Diego State, but that’s not much of an accomplishment when you are playing one of the worst teams in division one and you are favored by 21.5 points. The Irish looked confused, lethargic, unprepared and very predictable. They were sloppy, and they got lucky. Charlie Weis is a terrible coach, and I have no faith in his ability to turn ths mess around.

2. Peyton Manning is human. The Colts just didn’t look good on Sunday against the Bears. Manning’s numbers were decent, but he just couldn’t get anything going, he didn’t look comfortable, and the Colts could never establish the run. I’ve repeatedly suggested that the Colts are in for a step back this year, and I’m feeling better about that tonight. I would love nothing more than to be right about that one. I think it is especially striking that the team was opening a new stadium and yet they looked like they didn’t care.

3. East Carolina is no fluke. It doesn’t take a genius to figure this one out. When a Conference USA team beats Virginia Tech and then dismantles West Virginia in consecutive weeks they are doing something right. I know which team I am going to boldly pick to win the C-USA East.

4. There is no need to panic about Ohio State. Beanie Wells wasn’t playing, no one cared about playing Ohio, and the last thing they wanted to do before playing USC is risk an injury or let the Trojans see into anything meaningful from their gameplan. I’m not saying the Buckeyes will win, but I do know that this will help make their odds more attractive.

5. Oklahoma is really good. I was undecided about this team before the season, but I am sold now. Sam Bradford has been spectacular. Ryan Broyles made a heck of a debut. The offensive line is amazing. The Big 12 is tough, and the Sooners have a tough schedule, but I have high expectations for them.

6. The AFC is a mess. Things seemed so straight forward a couple of days ago. But then the Colts lost. And the Jags. And the Chargers. The Pats won, but suffered the worst possible loss in Brady and could be in trouble. It’s too early to panic, of course, but if today’s results didn’t shake your confidence a bit then you aren’t human. What are the chances of all those losses hapening in the same weekend? There were a lot of seemingly safe moneyline parlays lost this weekend.

7. BYU was disappointing. The Cougars wanted to be a BCS buster. Those hopes are still alive, but they have a heck of a lot of work to do. The Huskies aren’t that good, yet they came within a terrible call from a referee of a win.

8. The Bills are legit. Seattle wasn’t good, and they have no receivers right now, but Buffalo still was impressive. They played a pretty complete game, and have to be considered a legitimate outside shot at a playoff spot. I hope people don’t catch on quickly so they can delier some ATS pleasure.

9. Arkansas State is a great story. Last week they upset Texas A&M. This week they scored 83 points. The Sun Belt wasn’t supposed to be competitive, but now it certainly is. These guys play Alabama this year in a game that could give Saban nightmares if these guys haven’t come down to earth by then.

10. The Chiefs are doomed. So are the Rams. And the Bengals. I’ve said this before and I’ll say this again - Marvin Lewis is the worst coach in the NFL and desperately needs to be fired. He’ll run that team into the ground if they don’t get him out of there. I guess he pretty much has already.

I’ve decided not to acknowledge that mess of a game between Washington and the Giants as the start of the NFL season. The Redskins in no way resembled an NFL team, so it shouldn’t count. That means that the official start of the NFL season is on Sunday. Though I still  mostly see the NFL as just as acceptable follow-up to college football instead of a stand-alone attraction, I still greet the season with all sorts of excitement, and I have spent a good portion of my time over the last while thinking about this season from a ridiculous number of angles. Some of the thoughts have been productive and helpful towards the goal of profitability, and some almost certainly have not. Still, thinking about football is better than a huge majority of other possible activities.

In honor of the start of the season, here are 17 things I am pretty sure of about the season and how it will unfold for us as fans and bettors, or a least that I think I am sure of.

1. Chad Pennington is going to be decent. Not great because he doesn’t have a complete team around him, but decent. I think he’ll use the new opportunity to prove that he can still play. It wasn’t that long ago that he was comfortably among the top half of the league.

2. I think it is going to be a very long year in Baltimore. Neither Joe Flacco nor Troy Smith is ready for prime time, and even if they were they don’t have a lot of help around them. The defense was once great, but now is just getting old. I have no faith that Ed Reed will be able to get healthy, or that Lewis and the rest will hold up.

3. I think, actually I know, that I am sick of hearing about Shawne Merriman. I’m sure he won’t be at his best, and I doubt he’ll last all year, but I also think that the Chargers’ defense is good enough and deep enough that it doesn’t really matter. In other words, I’m not going to let the injury change my handicapping opinion of the team much.

4. I think that Oakland is going to be a mess. The last couple of years they have been handy in spots as a dog. I’m going to have to wait to see if they are this year, because right now I have a feeling that they could implode. I also don’t have a huge amount of faith in a big year coming from Darren McFadden, but then that hasn’t changed since well before the draft. He’ll be solid, but not Adrian Peterson good, or even close.

5. I don’t at all believe that Aaron Rodgers will make it through the season. He’s been fragile already, and his body isn’t used to contact after so long on the bench. I think he’ll be decent up until he is injured, though.

6. I don’t have an overwhelmingly positive feeling about the Patriots. They are still quite good, and I think that they stand a very good chance of being in the AFC championship, but I keep reading that this team is as good as last year and will make another run at glory, and I don’t know that I buy it. I think that they could be aiming for a letdown. They are still among my handful of Super Bowl contenders, but they aren’t ahead of the rest. Part of my concern is the health of Tom Brady. I don’t see him lasting all year unscathed, and I don’t like the alternative much. Then again, the fact that Matt Cassel was so bad in the preseason and yet the team hasn’t done anthing about it makes me wonder if maybe things aren’t as bad as they seem.

7. The same feeling of pessimism surrounds the Eagles. I keep reading that they are elite, but I can’t help but feel that they are going to disappoint. Again. Their receiving corps is brutal right now, and I don’t trust McNabb or the defense.

8. As much as I hate to say it, I think the Browns are going to have a rough year. Expectations and pressure could prove to be too much.

9. I like the Bucs. I don’t love them, but I think that Jeff Garcia is seriously underappreciated, and he’ll be fired up by the Favre flirtation. They aren’t Super Bowl contenders, but they are my pick in the surprisingly solid NFC South.

10. I was burned by this same prediction last year, but I can’t help myself - I think the Niners won’t be that bad. They are going to lose a lot of games and frustrate, but I will be looking towards them as a nice value play when they are heavy underdogs. There are a few very nice players on both sides of the ball.

11. Arizona’s going to be a disaster. Again. That’s relative, of course - they aren’t going to be Kansas City bad, but they aren’t going to be as good as they should be, either.

12. Denver is going to be kind to bettors this year. They’ll win more than some think, and score enough points to stay close when they don’t.

13. My AFC division winners only include one surprise - Jacksonville over Indy. It might be wishful thinking, but I don’t get a sense that there is a lot of hunger in Indy this year - at least compared to what they had when they went all the way. Otherwise, I see it as the chalk does - New England, Pittsburgh and San Diego.

14. My NFC picks aren’t much more exciting - Cowboys, Seahawks, Vikings, and Bucs.

15. Teams bettors will like - Houston, Detroit, San Francisco, Denver, Buffalo.

16. Teams bettors will hate - Jets, Chargers (they’ll be good, I just don’t think they’ll cover big spreads as often as people would like - a classic public trap), Bengals, Eagles, Packers, Falcons.

17. I will be surprised if Lane Kiffin makes it through the year. Like I said, I expect total chaos in Oakland.

The long wait is over and the NFL season is here. Sort of. I’m not entirely sure that that mess of a game tonight is worthy of being called an NFL game. It was hard to stay awake through that one, and it didn’t even start late.On the plus side, it can only get better from here. As I was watching, here are ten thoughts that came to mind:

1. I may have to start giving Plaxico Burress more credit. He sat out and pouted for the preseason, so he shouldn’t have been ready for the game tonight. Instead, he was by far the best player on the field and he had a career high 10 receptions. He still annoys me, but he’s certainly a game changer.

2. Jason Taylor fell flat. He was brought in to be a big boost for the Washington defense, but he was virtually invisible. I can only assume that he isn’t entirely right after his injury in preseason. He’ll need to be much better if this team wants to do anything.

3. The Giants were awful in the second half. They still were beter than Washington, but drives were stalling and they look disinterested and often confused. This does not look like a team poised at the beginning of a dynasty.

4. New York didn’t look like they were missing Strahan and Omenyiora nearly as much as I thought they might. Between Justin Tuck and the tackles they were able to keep the Washington line pressured.

5. I’m not sure I have the capability to like or respect Eli Manning, but he sure didn’t do a lot tonight to change my mind. If it weren’t for Burress he would have really been in trouble. He was fine, but he certainly didn’t do anything to make me think that he is elite, and he didn’t do enough to take advantage of a Washington defense that was primed to be taken advantage of.

6. Jim Zorn has an awful lot of work to do before that team is even remotely competent in his offense. That was terrible. Or maybe the team is just terrible.

7. Wasn’t this supposed to be year that Jason Campbell showed how good he can be? I want to believe he can be good, but that takes a leap of faith right now.

8. Nice clock management down the stretch, Washington. Ugly.

9. The Giants only won three at home last year, so taking care of this one has to be a good boost for them - especially since it is against a division rival.

10. The favorites and the under have never lost this year. I smell a trend!

As we get down to the point where we can start counting down to the NFL season in hours or even minutes, I find myself constantly looking at the upcoming season from every different angle. It will be a very good thing when the season finally gets underway, because then I can’t start looking at what actually happens instead of driving myself crazy thinking about what might happen. Until then, though, all I can do is ask questions I can’t answer. Here are ten of those questions that keep coming back to the top of my mind:

1. Does 0-4 matter? - The Patriots were absolutely brutal in the preseason. If I thought that that mattered then I would be worried about the team that are still assumed to be the class of the AFC. It’s not that simple, of course. Bill Belichick has an almost irrational disdain for the preseason, and his star quarterback has been missing in action. It would be easy to read between the lines and see brewing troubles in football paradise, but ts too early to do that yet. Isn’t it?

2. How long will public insanity last with the Jets? - I don’t have a lot of interest in how Brett Favre will do with the Jets. I’m bored by the story, and I’m sure he’ll look like what he is - a hall of famer surrounded by unfamiliar talent who is at the head of a decent team which will never be mistaken for a really good one. What I do want to know, though, is how long it is going to take for the public honeymoon with the team to wear off. Until Favre is viewed mostly as just another quarterback then the public won’t be obective about the Jets and the lines might be out of whack. The novelty factor is just annoying.

3. How’s it go, Joe? - The Joe Flacco situation in Baltimore is truly bizarre. Halfway through camp he was clearly the third stringer as he should be given his relative inexpereince (the guy didn’t even play division one ball). But then Boller got hurt and so did Smith. Now Flacco has to start the season as the man, and we have to figure out just how bad that could be. There’s not a lot of reason to be optimistic about this rookie quarterback class right now. Matt Ryan has looked good, but that’s about it. Brian Brohm couldn’t beat out Matt Flynn for the backup position in Green Bay, Chad Henne has done okay, but the Dolphins weren’t ready to trust him yet, and Andre Woodson was cut loose by the Giants in a stunning fall from grace. Those guys were in the same conversations as Flacco, so it makes sense that their lack of success, and the lack of eye-popping performance from Flacco, should make us uneasy about the start of the year in Baltimore.

4. How about Merriman’s knee? - I really have no interest in the debate over whether Shawne Merriman is doing the right thing in playing through his injury instead of getting surgery. My instinct would be to get it, but then I don’t know what the knee feels like, and I have never been a world class linebacker working towards a massive new contract, so my opinion is worthless. I am interested in two things about the story, though - will the situation negatively impact the Chargers’ defense, and will it provide a meaningful distraction for the team now and in the future?

5. Is JaMarcus Russell for real? - I find it odd that there isn’t much buzz about Russell considering he is a former number one pick about to take over his team. He gets talked about, but not as much as some players. Maybe that’s because I’m far from the only one who doesn’t have a good feeling about him. The team around him just isn’t that good, and last year and in the preseason he hasn’t done much to make us think that he will be able to overcome that. He should be helped by having a good running game to rely on, but I get the sense ths could be a long year for the boys in black.

6. Can Adrian Peterson get better? - Peterson was the most exciting part of the season last year. Things could go two ways from here. She could get even better and move towards hs goal or 2,000 yards in a season. Or injuries, opponents’ familiarity, and offensive line issues could conspire to make this year look worse than last year. How he does will go a long way to determining how well the Vikings do.

7. Will the Colts be good? - It’s partly because I really want it to be true, but I can’t get over this sense I have that this could be the year the Colts take a step backwards. Tony Dungy doesn’t seem entirely committed to football, there are obvious questions around Peyton Manning, Marvin Harrison isn’t Marvin Harrison anymore, the running game is unsettled - there are just a lot of reasons to think that this team might not be as good as expected.

8. Will the Chiefs win a game? - Probably, but I sure wouldn’t bet on it happening often.

The NFL season is just around the corner. That means that it is fantasy football time. I don’t profess to be an expert, but I do believe that you can significantly improve your chances of success in your league by following a few common sense tips. Here, then, are my ten tips to help guide you to a winning fantasy football season.

1. Five singles beats a home run and four strikeouts – Too often guys try to show how smart they are by picking the no name player who is going to have a huge season that they can steal in a later round. For every Ryan Grant, though, there are several guys no one has heard of at draft time and still hasn’t heard of now. Winning a fantasy league s rarely about bold, flashy picks. Like in recent Presidential elections, conservatism is rewarded.

2. Keep an eye on injuries – It doesn’t matter how talented a running back is if he can’t walk. Players are going to get hurt during the season and you will have to deal with that then, but you might as well start things off with a healthy lineup. Spending a few minutes perusing injury reports is a very good use of pre-draft time.

3. Don’t trust unstable QB situations – If you don’t know who the starting QB is on a team, or if there isn’t a clear number one, then stay away from the QBs and receivers from that team. Uncertainty almost never produces big numbers.

4. Don’t discount kickers – A lot of people leave the kicker until the last pick and make them an after thought. A good kicker can get you a surprising number of points, though. Spending some time looking at which kickers and coaches tend to kick a lot of field goals can allow you to make a smart mid-round pick while the prime players are still on the board.

5. Don’t get too fancy in the first round – The same players are going to get selected in pretty much every first round there is. This is not the time to try to be clever or original. There is a reason why the most popular players are the most popular, so don’t blow your opportunity to pile up the points. It’s hard to win the draft based on your first round pick, but you sure can lose it.

6. Don’t get an itchy trade finger – Once you have drafted your team, learn to live with it for a while. Too often guys are tempted to make a pile of trades before the season has even began. Trust your first instincts, and give yourself time to see what you actually have before you make trades or other roster moves. If a guy wasn’t drafted and you play in a big league then there is probably a pretty good reason for it.

7. Look to the schedule to break ties – If there are two players at the same position that you like equally, look at who they play in the first few weeks to help make a decision. The guy who plays more teams more suited to his success is a better choice. For example, a running back who plays two teams with lousy run defenses is obviously a better choice than one who plays a bunch of brick walls.

8. Don’t forget bye weeks – There is no worse feeling than picking your team only to realize that all of your quarterbacks have the same bye week. Doing a quick check of this as you make your picks is a great idea.

9. Ditch your biases – I hate Peyton Manning with every fiber of my being (though I am man enough to admit that he was very funny on SNL). That doesn’t mean that he is a bad pick, though. Fantasy football is about winning, not building a fan club. Make sure that your choices are made for the right reason – the only thing worse than having a guy you don’t like on your team is getting beat by him.

10. Add depth only when it makes sense – Running backs are valuable in fantasy football. Some guys, though, will focus so much on adding running back depth to their team that they won’t be left with anything else worthwhile. You need to prioritize the positions you’ll pick, but you also need to pick all of the positions. NFL executives will pick the best player on the board in most draft situations, but you’ll notice that the Patriots and the Colts don’t spend first round picks on quarterbacks.

The NFL preseason is pretty much a waste of time. The last game is a total farce. There are about a billion reasons why I hate everything about this week’s NFL games, but here are seven to start:

1. No one tries - Pretty much every team has answered their big questions by now. Those that haven’t don’t want to risk getting hurt. The rash of big name inuries in the preseason this year - Osi Umenyiora, Jason Taylor, Shawne Merriman, Chad Johnson, Tom Brady, etc. - will do nothing to help. The starters will start, but they will be on the bench so fast it will be laughable.

2. No one cares - the only reason anyone attends these games is that they have to pay for them with their season tickets anyway (at full price, no less). No one wants to be there, so the stadiums are dull and lifeless.

3. The spreads are ridiculous - As I write there are three games without lines. All the rest of the games have spreads between two and four. What a thrilling range. Not that it should matter anyway - you would have to be a serious degenerate to play this weekend heavily.

4. Unwatchable matchups - St. Louis at Kansas City. Oakland at Seattle. The Geneva Convention bans us from showing games like these to our worst enemies.

5. Thursday night games - This week’s schedule includes 13 Thursday night games and three on Friday. Nothing says NFL like Thursdays and Fridays.

6. More time for talking heads to talk - The TV experts are almost unbearable at the best of times. They are worse when they are faced with a dull, meaningless game and they feel the need to fill the time with their ‘insights’. There will be some truly idiotic things said and discussed. Of course, I’ll just do the fool proof approach to avoiding this certain loss of brain cells - I won’t watch any games.

7. Simplified playbooks - Coaches are paranoid, and they won’t want to give away any of their special plays this close to the season. Instead, they’ll borrow a playbook from the local Pop Warner team. Yawn.