Maddux Sports Blog

I’m sitting here watching the Diamondbacks pound the life out of the Giants. That’s not much of an accomplishment, of course - I could take all the guys that live on my block and probably play the Giants tight. What is pretty clear, though, is that the D-Backs are a pretty fine team. I’m not exactly going out on a limb to say that - the win they are pretty much guaranteed to get this afternoon will move them to 10-4, which is the best record in the league (tied with the surprising Cardinals if they beat Milwaukee tonight). Unlike some of the teams that have jumped out to fast starts (that means you, Baltimore), Arizona has the look of a team that will be there until the end. This doesn’t come as a huge surprise - they are the third choice in the National League behind the Cubs and the Mets to win the World Series in the futures market.

The thing I like most about this team is that, with the exception of Justin Upton (ore about him later) the team isn’t hitting at an unsustainable level. Many of the other frontrunners are hitting out of their minds, but the D-Backs only have two players hitting over .300. That means that they can basically keep doing what they are doing, and keep winning as a result. They aren’t wining a lot of games by just one run (just one of their ten wins), so there is room for their offense to struggle a bit more than it is and still be sufficient to keep them competitive.

Back to Justin Upton. This rightfielder is just 20 years old and in his first full season in the big leagues, but you would never guess it by the way he is playing. He is hitting .388 with a ridiculous OBPS of .1143. It’s always a gamble when you pass the reins over to a guy so young, but he is certainly holding up his end of the bargain so far. He’ll obviously slow down from this ridiculous pace, but he has so much natural talent that the fall shouldn’t be extreme. This guy is the real deal, and he will be a big part of this team for as long as they keep him.

There isn’t a team out there that has a rotation any more effective in the top three spots than Arizona. Brandon Webb is obviously an elite starter, and his 3-0 start with a 2.14 ERA shows that he is right back in his own habits. Micah Owings has matured nicely, and looks as if he will live up to the potential he showed in his first year last year. He’s 2-0 to start, and will move to 3-0 when today’s game is finished. Danny Haren is also 2-0, the addition from Oakland who is making the switch of leagues look as  easy as it can possibly be. Add in Randy Johnson, who looked pretty good in his first action in a long time yesterday, and you have a solid rotation.

So, what’s my point? This is one of those teams that you will be able to rely on when you need a win over the season. They aren’t going to pay a lot because they are no secret to the public, and they won’t present a huge amount of value very often, but they are just a well built, reliable, solid team. A bettor needs a few of those in their repertoire.

When the Mets acquired Johan Santana from the Twins in exchange for mostly underwhelming talent it was seen as a steal - a major coup. The conventional wisdom was that he was the most dominant pitcher in the American League, so he would dominate in the weaker National League. He’s only three games into his new career, so it is far too soon to draw any conclusions yet, but if he plans to be dominant then he is easing into it. He’s just 1-2 after a loss on Saturday against Milwaukee, and as such he has burnt a fair bit of bettor money up so far. That’s not going according to plan, but is it time to panic yet? Of course not. Here are six reasons why:

1. K/BB ratio - One of the most glaringly impressive stats that Santana consistently puts forth is his strikeout to walk ratio - between 4/1 and 5/1 the last four years when he has been at his best. This year he has 18 strikeouts and just four walks - a 4.5/1 ratio. I love that stat as a solid indicator of quality, and Santana is at a significantly high level of quality this year as he always is.

2. Run support - Simply put, he hasn’t had any. The Mets have scored just two runs while he has been in the game during his last two outings. The lovechild of Sandy Koufax and Cy Young would struggle to win under those circumstances. The Mets have scored more runs than 18 other teams in the league, and they have the real potential to do much better than they are, so the problems that Santana has faced will be less of a problem as the season continues.

3. Schedule - His losses have come against Atlanta and Milwaukee. Those are two of the better teams in the league - they should both be competitive right to the end in their divisions. If he stays healthy then he will pitch against Washington twice and Pittsburgh once in his next half dozen starts. He’ll look much better in those games. The schedule will soften up and he’ll get his chance to shine against lesser competition through the season. His first start was against Florida, and he had by far his best start of the year.

4. Not typically a fast starter - Santana has won the Cy Young twice - in 2004 and 2006. He has stumbled at the start of both seasons. He had no decisions in each of his first starts in 2004, and was just 2-4 at the beginning of June, but he only lost twice after that point. He wasn’t nearly as bad in 2006, but he did go 0-3 in his first four starts before finding his stride. If he is still underwhelming two months from now then we should be concerned, but not now.

5. It’s not as easy as it seems - Moving from the AL to the NL has been proven to be very hard time and again in recent years. Tim Hudson has looked no better in the lesser league - he has had the same number of wins in his first three years in Atlanta as he had in his last three in Oakland. Barry Zito seemingly forgot how to pitch when he crossed the bay from Oakland to San Francisco. Derek Lowe was lousy in his first year in L.A., and it took Andy Pettitte a year to find his way in Houston. Interleague play and better video technology mean that new pitchers aren’t as mysterious as they used to be when they switch leagues, and batters aren’t as lost as people may think. Santana is going to be fine, and it probably won’t take a whole season, but if it does that’s just fine.

6. It takes time to love a catcher - For the last 3+ year, Santana has been throwing to Joe Mauer every time out. Mauer is among the best in the league, and they obviously worked well together. Now he has to get used to another catcher, Brian Schneider. There are signs that the comfort isn’t there yet - Santana has never had more than seven wild pitches in a season, and he has three in his first three games this year. Schneider has to get used to a new team as well, and he is struggling mightily at the bat, so he isn’t comfortable or at his best yet, either. On top of all that, he has never caught a pitcher anywhere near the caliber of Santana before - he spent his whole career in Washington until this year - so he can’t help but be a bit intimidated. When Schneider finds his stride and he and Santana build a relationship then they will be fine.

So, if you are one of the guys that has lost money on Santana this year and you are trying to figure out what is going on, just don’t worry about it. You may want to lay off him for a while while he gets comfortable, but there is no reason to believe that he is anything other than the Santana we have come to know and love. Maybe we have been watching too much football and college basketball, so we have forgotten just how long the baseball season is, and how meaningless one game is.

The AL Central has been fascinating so far this year, and I’m not just talking about how bad the Tigers have been. The Royals are a team that I was relatively optimistic about. I’m not crazy enough to love the team - by relatively optimistic I mean better than they have been in four years, but that only means that they need a win total that starts with a seven. Even though, I liked them, though, I certainly didn’t see them jumping out to a 6-2 start and a perch at the top of their division. They swept the Tigers to start the season, faltered lightly against Minnesota, and now they have a chance to sweep the Yankees tonight. That is two presumed playoff teams that have fallen to the Royals. It’s unexpected, but can it be sustainable? How are they doing it, and can they keep doing it?

I liked this team for three main reasons - they have a pitching staff which is better than they get credit for, they have a couple of incredible young hitting talents, and they hired themselves a very good first time manager. So far, things have been going as hoped.

Gil Meche hasn’t been great, but Zack Greinke seems to have his mental problems under control, and he has been almost unhittable. Brian Bannister and Brett Tomko have been almost as good. The rotation is full of talented but underappreciated guys, and they are working well. They won’t stay as strong as they have been, but they don’t have the look of a group that are just counting the seconds until their inevitable collapse, either. There are several teams out there with much more to worry about on the pitching side than the Royals.

The young bats - Alex Gordon and Billy Butler - have been every bit as good as expected. Better, even. Butler is hitting .406, while Gordon is at .303 and leads the team in home runs and RBIs. Besides them you have a couple of guys who are better than they get credit for. First baseman Ross Gload has bounced around a bit in his career, but he has a .295 career batting average in almost 370 games. He’s hitting .345 so far this year. Mark Grudzielanek is seen as a journeyman by most people, but the 37 year old has hit a very solid .290 on his career, and better than that in each of the last five seasons. The fact that he is hitting .407 is a bit of a surprise, but that he is leading the team in batting average isn’t.  It all boils down to this - he team has benefited from hot bats, but they haven’t been overachieving to such an extent that the team will be significantly worse down the road.

Trey Hillman, the new manager, is the third and perhaps biggest element in the big start. The guy is a born motivator - just listening to the guy for two seconds makes you want to jump up and do something. Whatever he is doing is working.

This team has been wildly profitable so far - they have been favored just once, and a $100 bet on each game would have generated a total profit of $698 in just eight games. That pace won’t keep up obviously, but I do suspect that their rate of improvement this year significantly exceeds thepublic perception of the team, and that means that they could provide serious value this year. The last time they were any good - in 2003 when they won 83 games - the public never really caught up to them, and they ended the year as the fourth most profitable team in the league.

Every year at this time I make a bunch of predictions about the baseball season as it gets underway. I focus on things that will impact the betting side of things, of course. I suppose that it is only fair to disclose that I am wrong more than I am right - predicting what will happen over 162 games is tricky stuff. Regardless, here I go fearlessly plunging into my view of how this season, which is currently in the midst of its third and final opening day of the year.

1. The Tigers will live up to expectations - The hopes are ridiculously high in the eyes of many for Detroit, but they can meet them. They have a stunning amount of power at the plate, more than acceptable fielding, and a very solid rotation. Justin Verlander is going to tear it up this year and has to be the runaway early pick for AL Cy Young.

2. Johan Santana will be all that - A lot of pitchers struggle as they move from one league to another, but Santana is not just any guy. He is an uber-freak, and he has a good team behind him (as long as they don’t face many injuries), so I expect him to pick up right where he left off. Even better, really - he’ll get the wins in solid outings that his teammates couldn’t deliver for him last year.

3. I’m not as excited about the Cubs as many are - I think that they are a solid team, but the rotation doesn’t do it for me, and the bats, though good, don’t have the long history of success that make me feel confident in their virtually certain success. They will certainly contend in their division, and the playoffs are a real possibility, but I’m not ready to give them the World Series yet like some seem to be.

4. Baltimore will be even worse than you think - They have absolutely no pitching, not much hitting, and no reason to be optimistic. Frankly, anything less than 105 losses would have to be seen as a serious victory.

5. I like Cincinnati - They would need some breaks and some quick maturity from their rotation, but they are packed with a staggering amount of talent both on the field and the mound. The upside of their rotation is as good as any in the league. Add Dusty Baker to that and you have a team that could surprise those who expect to see the same old Reds.

6. Sorry Tampa Bay, not this year - I understand the arguments that people are making about why this is finally the year for this pathetic team, but I think that it is still a year or so premature. They have some good pitchers, but they are short on depth. On top of that, their division hasn’t got any easier, and they are too young to stay strong all year. They will be better, but they won’t yet be good.

7. Seattle, Seattle, Seattle - I love this team. I loved them last year and they came through in a big way - they were the second most profitable team in the league. Many seem to think that they will take a step back, but the addition of Erik Berard and the maturity of King Felix makes me believe that the AL West is fully in their sights.

8. I still hate the Yankees and the Red Sox - Nothing short of an apocalypse will change that. I do enjoy watching Papelbon and Chamberlain pitch, though.

9. Prince Fielder may explode - I am watching the Cubs and the Brewers as I write this, and it is perfectly clear that Fielder did not spend a lot of his offseason at the gym or with Jenny Craig. Dude is enormous. I am not a tiny guy, but my wife and I could live fairly comfortably in his pants.

10. Barry Bonds will be somewhere by the end of April - He may be the worst kind of scum, but he still has a very legitimate bat and he’ll sell tickets like crazy, so someone is going to make a deal with the devil. Frankly, I don’t think that it would be a bad move.

So, all of the playoff positions in the American League are just about decided, while the Senior Circuit is wide open. There are about five games left in the 2007. (more…)

In the National League, the Central Division is the most competitive. St. Louis continues to climb the ladder. Although they are still in third place, the Cards are only two games out. Even Cincinnati is in the hunt being 6.5 games out. But let’s be real—The Cubs and Brewers, who are in first and second respectively with 1.5 games between them, are both having a tough time.

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The Los Angeles Dodgers inked a deal today with veteran lefty David Wells. Wells, who is in his 21st ML season and with his ninth team overall, was released earlier this month by the San Diego Padres.

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The Arizona Diamondbacks are in first-place 4.5 ahead of the Padres and 7 in front of the Dodgers. Although they have allowed 22 more runs than they’ve scored, there’s one guy who has not allowed opponents to score—Brandon Webb. His latest victims were the East’s third-place team, the Atlanta Braves. Webb (13-8) tossed his third- straight shutout, striking out six, giving up only two hits and walking one. (more…)

The NL East is still a three-way battle between the Mets, Phills and Braves. 4 games separate the three. If you’re looking an edge in terms of opponents, then I think it goes to the Mets and Philadelphia. Both play Pittsburgh, Washington, San Diego and Los Angeles. Los Angeles has been struggling mightily lately and both the Bucs and the Nationals are terrible. (more…)

If it were not for Josh Beckett the marauding post-All-Star break Yankees would have run over and trampled the mediocre post-All-Star break Red Sox. But instead, the Red Sox are still in first-place, although their lead has dwindled from 11 games to five.

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The Detroit Tigers are making it much easier for the Cleveland Indians as they have lost five straight and nine of their last ten. The Indians, who are only 3- 7 over their last ten, have managed to take over first-place in the AL Central by ½ game. The Minnesota Twins have gained ground, going 6- 4 during the last 10. They are 4.5 games out of first. (more…)

I’m finding the National League darn exciting this year. It might be because Lou Pinella, who’s quite a character, is managing the Cubs and they’re a contender. There’s also the surprise Brewers, which is a neat story. (more…)

Barry Bonds has caught Hank Aaron. He hit number 755 tonight in the second inning against San Diego starter Clay Hensley (1- 3, 6.38 ERA). Hensley is in his third year in the majors. All of his seasons have been with the Padres.

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I see that A-Rod rounded all the bases today for the 500th time. You have to start wondering—at least I do—about whether he’s a Hall of Fame guy? In fact, who is a candidate for the Hall of Fame? Let’s take a look at two everyday players who may or may not make it—Rodriguez and Chipper Jones. (more…)

The Boston Red Sox lead the league and all of MLB with a winning percentage of .611, posting 66 wins and 42 loses. The Sox have gone 7- 3 over the last ten games and their bats have started to reignite again. They have the best and deepest pitching staff in the AL and perhaps the entire majors.

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