Maddux Sports Blog

The Fresno State Bulldogs have made the finals of the College World Series in Omaha. To do so they knocked out North Carolina, a finalist the last two years. UNC was ranked second in the country. Fresno State was the first fourth seeded team in a regional to make the CWS, so it is certainly the first to make the finals. They were the longest shot in the field (15/1) at the start of the CWS, but they just won’t quit. Remember, before they knocked out UNC they had to eliminate Arizona State, the number three team in the country. The story gets even more Disney-like - the team is playing without their top pitcher, Tanner Scheppers, who was injured late in the regular season.

Fresno State moves on to a battle of the Bulldogs in the finals when they face Georgia. Those Bulldogs were the second longest shots on the board at the start of the tourney. Whichever Bulldogs win, this final is proof of one truth that every bettor needs to remember - handicapping isn’t always nearly as easy as we wish it could be.

Another day, another manager fired. This time it was John Gibbons in Toronto. That comes a day after Seattle made a change, and just a few days after Willie Randolph started this current epidemic of managerial upgrades.

Just like the previous two firings, this one was unquestionably needed. The Blue Jays have one of the best starting rotations in the league, and they have no shortage of batting talent, but they are underachieving at the plate as much as it is possible for a team to do (except for Seattle). It’s frankly a bit of a surprise that Gibbons, a guy who thinks that challenging a player to a fist fight isn’t necessarily a bad idea, made it this far.

More remarkable than this inevitable firing is who Toronto tabbed to replace Gibbons - Cito Gaston. If you recall, Gaston is the guy who led the Blue Jays to back-to-back World Series victories. A few observations from that front:

1. This is a clear sign that J.P. Ricciardi is all but done in Toronto. There is no way that Ricciardi made this hire. Gaston is an ownership man, and they pull the strings on this one. Ricciardi has prove yet again that he is a goof with this Adam Dunn kerfuffle this week, and his days are very numbered. I figure he will play out the season and then ‘leave to pursue other opportunities’. Good riddance - the guy is lousy. I live in Canada, and the sports radio station in my home town is owned by the same group that owns the Jays, so this story got lots of coverage today. In all of that coverage it is Paul Godfrey, the President and CEO of the team, that is quoted or makes a comment. Ricciardi is silent.

2. Gaston is an odd case. He took over an underachieving team full of holes midway through th 1989 season, and he turned them into dominant champs. He ultimately left the team rather unceremoniously in 1997, and he hasn’t managed since. He was a finalist with Detroit and the White Sox, but he hasn’t been offered anything better than a hitting instructor job. On paper he clearly deserves another shot, so there must be a less-than-enjoyable part of his personality from the management perspective.

3. This move will by the team time from the fans. Gaston is wildly popular in Toronto for obvious reasons, and his return will be seen as the greatest move ever. It probably won’t actually turn out to be a great move, but it will buy the Jays some time to turn things around from a roster perspective.

4. Gaston has a background as a hitting coach, and this team can’t hit at all, so he seems like a good fit. If he sticks with what he knows then he should be fine. The risk, though, is that he will rest on his past laurels. None of the current players will care about that and it will go badly.

5. It will be interesting to see if Gaston’s hiring is basically just a P.R. move or if he will be given real input into this team. There are several players on the roster that are not his type of guys, so if changes start to be made then we’ll quickly know that Gaston is for real.

6. This does nothing to change the Jays’ fundamental problem - they likely will never return to former glory until they can find a way to get out of the AL East. The last decade would have looked very different for them if they were in the AL Central.

7. Who’s next? I’m not going to do the research, but I would guess that this is the most mid-season firings we have seen in one week in a long time. If ever. There are a few more guys who probably don’t need to stay where they are. Clint Hurdle has his team playing better in Colorado, but it’s still pretty ugly, and it has the real potential to get worse. Cleveland and Detroit are both spending too much money to be patient forever. Manny Acta is terrible in Washington, but to be fair there isn’t a manager alive that could do anything with that mess. Cecil Cooper is only in his first full year as manager in Houston after taking over as an interim last year, but he isn’t doing much with the talent he has and gives us little reason to believe that he has a long, bright future. After failing to make the playoffs last year and basically failing to win a game this year, Bud Black may be in some trouble in San Diego. Heck, if this firing pace keeps up baseball could soon be like the NBA was a couple of years ago.

8. There was an almost total change in the coaching staff at the same time. Most notable was that Dwayne Murphy replaces Ernie Whitt as first base coach. Murphy was the guy who hit behind Rickey Henderson in Oakland when Rickey was at his base stealing best. He was a very good and underappreciated player, and he is still a legend in Oakland. Sadly, Toronto doesn’t travel to Oakland for the rest of the year, so we don’t get to enjoy the interesting, though totally meaningless, story of how Murphy is received in his homecoming. In another blast from the past, Gene Tenace is the hitting coach. Tenace filled that same role when Gaston was last the manager, and he was a successful interim manager for a short spell when Gaston had to take time off with back problems.

9. I hope the Jays realize that bringing back the 1992 staff won’t bring back 1992 results.

The thing every baseball fan seems to want to talk about right now is whether Chipper Jones can hit .400 on the year. He’s at .419 as of today, and he is hitting like a demon. Since I’m a baseball fan, and because we should see a prop on the issue pretty soon (there may already be one out there, but I haven’t seen it), I figured I would weigh in with my opinion and some analysis.

First, let’s cut to the chase. Is he going to do it? In a word, no. Absolutely not. Need more than that? Here are five of my reasons (I could come up with several more if I had to, but only one good reason in favor of him doing it - I want him to):

OBP - On-base percentage isn’t directly correlated to batting average, but it is pretty close. The real connection is this - You need to have a very good on-base percentage to hit .400. Right now Jones does - .504. The problem is that that is 63 points higher than his previous career best, and that was way back in 1999. We have no good reason to believe that his on-base percentage can stay as high as it is, so I find it hard to believe that the average will stay high.

Strikeouts to walks - Part of Jones’ success is that he has been walking quite a bit and not striking out much. The walks don’t help his average at all, but they do show that he is being patient, and that patience is needed to have a h uge average. Strikeouts are the oppsoite - they hurt your average and show you aren’t being patient. This year Jones has had 1.56 walks for every strikeout. That’s higher than he has ever had. Last year he had 1.09, and he hit .337. In 13 full years he has had four seasons in which he has had more strikeouts than walks, and his career best ratio was 1.48 way back in 2000. His career average is 1.08. He’s not likely to sustain his current pace. As significantly, over the course of his career he has struck out about 15.5 percent of the time he has batted. This year he is at just 11.3 percent. He’s not likely to sustain that, either, and that will directly impact his average. Last year he struck out 14.6 percent of the time, and he had his best hitting year.

What it would take - He has played 60 games this year and has hit .419. He has missed six games. That means that there are 96 games left. Assuming he will miss games at the same rate for the rest of the year he will play 87 more games. In order to hit .400 on the year (or more specifically, .3995, because that’s all it takes), he would have to hit .386 down the stretch. That’s a big accomplishment for a guy who has never hit better than .337 on a year. Too big. Looking at it another way, he is averaging 3.7 at-bats per game, so he is on pace to finish with 544 at-bats. To hit .400 he would need 217 hits. He has never had more than 189. That many hits isn’t impossible, but he will likely need even more than that because his on-base percentage will fall. He will need to significantly beat his career best even to have a chance, and I can’t bet on that. For perspective, consider this - in 2004 IchiroSuzuki had 262 hits and he only hit .372. Jones has a long, long way to go.

History - There’s a reason that no one has hit .400 since 1941 - it’s really, really hard. It’s harder now than it was then because pitchers are more rested and bullpens are more specialized, so there are fewer soft spots for hitters to exploit. Jones is on a great pace, but others very good hitters have been above .400 in June or later and still not pulled it off - Todd Helton, Roberto Alomar, Wade Boggs, Paul O’Neill, Rod Carew, Tony Gwynn, Larry Walker, Nomar Garciaparra, John Olerud. If none of those guys have done it, it’s hard to believe that Jones can. For perspective on the difficulty of the task, look at George Brett in 1980. He was at .400 on September 19, but didn’t finish above the mythical mark. He only hit .304 in his last 13 games.The odds are stacked against Jones.

Health - So far this year Jones has missed a game or two five different times. The problem has twice been back spasms. The other three times it was a version of a right leg problem - a groin, and a strained and a slightly torn quad. None of those injuries have proven to be serious, but they all raise concerns. If his back is a problem he can’t swing properly. If his leg is a problem then he can’t run as well as he should be able to, and he won’t beat out the throws at first that he needs to to get his hits. He may stay completely healthy, but it’s hard to bet on that.

The MLB draft goes tomorrow. It used to be that a bettor could afford to ignore this event because it was going to be a while until the players were relevant. That’s no longer the case. The 2007 draft’s impact hasn’t yet been felt, but seven of the top ten players from 2006 are already in the pros, and a couple - Evan Longoria and Tim Lincecum- are well on their way to stardom. This year, again, there are several players who could step right into the lineup in a year or so and contribute. That means that getting familiar with them now will help you to take advantage of their appearances when they do show up. Here’s a quick look at the players who are likely to go at the top of the draft. We aren’t going to see nearly as many pitchers go in recent years. In fact, we might only see one go in the top ten.

Buster Posey, C, Florida State - You might recognize this guy as the one who recently played all nine positions in a game. You might also soon recognize him as the top pick in the draft. He might not have the biggest upside in the draft, but he is probably the closest to being ready. He has the potential to be an all-star for many years.Tampa bay is obviously pretty close to being the real deal, so they probably won’t want to draft someone they have to wait on.

Tim Beckham, SS, Griffin HS (Georgia) - If Posey doesn’t go first overall then Beckham likely will. He’s risky because he is young and a lot can change in the few years it will take him to make it. On the other hand, he has probably the biggest potential upside in the draft, and some team will take the risk. He probably won’t make it past Pittsburgh in the second spot, but will almost certainly be gone by the time Kansas City has picked third.

Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Vanderbilt - This is a clear sign that Vanderbilt is doing something right - Alvarez could go first and won’t go worse than third last year, and David Price went first overall last year. Alvarez has serious offensive upside, and he is versatile enough to move around the infield if need be.

Brian Matusz, LHP, University of San Diego - Matusz is potentially the only pitcher in the top ten. He had a complete game shutout in regional action last week, and he has been consistently impressive. I have him going to Baltimore fourth, but that could change.

Gordon Beckham, SS, University of Georgia - What are the chances of two shortstops from Georgia named Beckham who aren’t related landing in the top ten? Seems bizarre, but it will probably happen. He’s a remarkably good hitter for a shortstop, and he is competent enough in the field. His advantage is that he can make it through the minors and contribute to a team that needs the help. The buzz surrounding him and the Giants is huge, and they will soon need the next Omar Vizquel. The pieces fit.

Kyle Shipworth, C, Patriot High School (California) - This is the closest thing to a lock on the board. He’s not likely to go in the top five, and he almost certainly won’t get past the Marlins in sixth. They need serious catching help, and this guy has been tearing it up in high school. This guy could redefine power for the catcher position if he makes it.

Justin Smoak, 1B, South Carolina and Yonder Alonso, 1B, Miami - I put these two guys together because they are largely interchangeable. They are both first baseman with very heavy bats. The Reds, White Sox, Washington and Houston all need power in their system, so these two guys will likely go to some combination of those four teams from seven to ten. They could even go sooner.

Eric Hosmer, 1B, American Heritage HS (Florida) - The only difference between Hosmer and the previous two is that he is still in high school so he will likely take longer to come along. His talent is impressive, and he’ll also likely not make it out of the top ten.

Aaron Crow, RHP, Missouri - This is the other pitcher who could go in the top ten. Like Matusz he had a complete game shutout in regional play. There isn’t really a lot to differentiate him from the other pitcher, so it comes down to what teams prefer.

Brett Lawrie, 2B, Brookswood HS (B.C.) - As a Canadian I have to mention this kid. He has huge power. He hasn’t been getting a lot of first round talk, but he did a big tour to the Dominican and lit it up and the buzz is really strong that Cincinnati picking seventh has their eyes on him. He doesn’t really have a position - in a good way - so the Reds could pick him now and let him find his place in the minors.e

The Cubs are as hot as can be. They just capped off a seven game home stand with seven wins and now they head out to play easily winnable series against San Diego and the Dodgers. I’d like this team much better, though, if they could play on the road. They have the best record in baseball, and the best home record in baseball, but they are just 10-13 on the road. In their last three road trips they have gone 2-4, 2-4, and 2-3. I have faith that if anyone can turn that around it is Lou Piniella, but until he does I will have a real tough time buying into this team for the long haul. They were 41-40 last year on the road, so they do have the ability to be decent. The disparity between the two records in hurting bettors, too - they are the second most profitable home team behind the Red Sox, but they are significant betting losers on the road. If you want a plus side to it all, I suppose that their road struggles might keep their home prices a bit more reasonable.

Speaking of Chicago baseball, is there a more entertaining guy in all of baseball than White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen? His team lost three straight in Tampa bay, and he didn’t like it at all. He basically blew up his team, saying that general manager Kenny Williams had better make some changes by Tuesday or he’s going to do it himself by turning the lineup upside down nightly until he finds some much needed hits. He even went as far as to say that Williams could fire him if he thought it would create hits. Guillen is entertainingly ridiculous, but he’s right in this case - the team is in first place in a terrible division and they have the playoffs in the palm of their hand, but they just need to hit like they should be able to on paper.

I really like the Reds. Not this year, but soon. Jay Bruce is obviously a freak 13-for-22 is a pretty good way to start a major league career), and he’s joined by talented guys with long futures like Joey Votto, Ryan Freel, and Brandon Phillips. There is a lot to like on the pitching staff, too. Edinson Volquez is more than impressive, and Johhny Cueto had another strong start tonight. He’s young and inconsistent, but his stuff is nasty and when he figures it out he’ll be scary. Aaron Harang is underrated, too. They are a solid 19-10 at home, and, like so many teams in the league, they would be competitive if they could learn to play on the road. They finally have good management in place, and the future seems pretty darned bright.

The Dodgers called up 20 year old phenom Clayton Kershaw from Double-A to start on Sunday because they found themselves in a bind since Esteban Loaiza forgot how to pitch. The gamble paid off. He didn’t get the decision, but he pitched well and the team won.

His start raises a couple of interesting issues. First of all, it will be fun to see if Kershaw is one of those pitchers who hits the ground running and puts together a good year, or if he will struggle and take some time before he sticks for good. It also raises an issue of how we should deal with these phenom pitchers. The obvious answer would probably be to pass the games because we don’t know what the pitchers have to offer in their debut start, but where’s the fun in that. Instead, it might be interesting to look back on some of the recent phenoms that have come on the scene to see what they did in their first starts - maybe we’ll learn something.

Here’s a very incomplete list of 15 young pitchers including Kershaw and the result their team enjoyed in their first start. The criteria were simple - the pitchers all had to debut within the last three years, and they all had to have a good deal of buzz surrounding their debuts.

Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers - Team won - He was drafted two years ago out of high school, and was rushed along because of the composure he was showing in Double-A. His first start lasted six innings and featured seven strikeouts and just one walk. Nothing wrong with that.

Cole Hamels, Phillies - Team won - Hamels was drafted in the first round in 2002. He didn’t make the roster out of spring training in 2006, but he was called up almost immediately. His first start was May 12. He won, and has never really looked back. He’s the clearest success on this list.

Phil Hughes, Yankees - Team lost - Phil Franchise was tabbed as the number two prospect in the minor leagues at the start of the 2007 season, but he didn’t have a chance to prove it - he was called up in April. He didn’t make it out of the fifth in his first start.

Andrew Miller, Tigers (now Marlins) - Team won - Miller was the college player of the year in 2006, and was the sixth pick in the draft that year. He was the first player in that draft to make the majors. His first start was a gem - six shutout innings against St. Louis. He obviously didn’t make enough of an impression, though - he was sent the other way in the Dontrelle Willis deal.

Max Scherzer, Diamondbacks - Team lost - Scherzer was a first round pick in 2006. He drove bettors into a frenzy with his first relief appearance - four and a third perfect innings. He was immediately pressed into starting duty as Doug Davis got treated for cancer. It was a disaster. He pitched poorly and was beat by Jamie Moyer and the Phillies.

Homer Bailey, Reds - Team won - A first round pick in 2004, Bailey’s debut was much anticipated in June of 2007. He won that first game against the Indians, but he has struggled to find a spot with the big team since then. He’s currently in AAA.

Tim Lincecum, Giants - Team lost - Lincecum is a heck of a pitcher, but he doesn’t look the part - he’s not very tall and he’s scrawny. That didn’t stop him from winning the Golden Spikes Award in 2006 - given to the best amateur player in the country. He didn’t make the team in 2007, but was called up right away because Russ Ortiz was injured. He was fine in his first outing, but the lousy Giants didn’t help him out and the team lost.

Jair Jurrjens, Tigers (now Braves) - Team lost - Unlike most of the rest of the players on this list, Jurrjens is not a blue-blooded prospect. He was an undrafted free agent, but he fought his way up through the Tigers’ system. He was added to the 40 man roster in 2007 and debuted in August. He went seven and was okay, but the Tigers weren’t very good that night and they lost.

Clay Buchholz, Red Sox - Team won - Buchholz was a late first round pick in 2005 (a compensatory pick for Pedro Martinez). He won his first start with a decent six inning outing, but was sent right back down to the minors for a couple of weeks. It worked. He came up and threw a no-hitter in his second start.

Matt Garza, Twins (now Rays) - Team lost - Garza showed tremendous promise early in his career. In his first pro year, 2006, he worked up from A ball to the pros by August. He was called up to replace the injured Francisco Liriano. His first start, against Toronto, was an absolute disaster - seven runs in less than three innings. He rebounded and progressed nicely, but was sent to Tampa for Delmon Young.

Jered Weaver, Angels - Team won - Weaver’s story is one of the sadly entertaining of all time - to make room for him on the big league roster when he was called up the second time the Angels cut his brother, Jeff. He was national college player of the year in 2004. His first start was spectacular - seven shutout innings. He won four in a row, but was sent down to the minors when Bartolo Colon returned to action.

Adam Loewen, Orioles - Team lost - Loewen took longer to develop than some. He was the fourth pick in the 2002 draft, and the Orioles top prospect by 2004, but he didn’t debut until 2006. He gained some attention in the World Baseball Classic when he got the win for Canada over the U.S. team. He lost his first game, but he can’t really be blamed - his first four starts were all against Cy Young winners - Randy Johnson, Tom Glavine and Roy Halladay two different times. Ouch.

Johnny Cueto, Reds - Team won - This tiny Dominican is nasty. In his first start this April he was perfect through five innings, allowed just one baserunner - a home run - and struck out ten in seven innings. Incredible. He has struggled to find that form since, but he still shows tremendous promise.

Luke Hochevar, Royals - Team lost - This guy is a case study in how to work the draft. He was drafted in 39th round in 2002. He didn’t sign. In 2005 he was picked late in the first round. The contract negotiations were a mess and he went back into the draft again in 2006. This time he went first overall. His first start came as a 40-man roster call up in September of last year. He lost, but then again he plays for the Royals so what did you expect.

Ian Kennedy, Yankees - Team won - A 2006 first round pick, Kennedy made the bigs in September of 2007 because the Yankees continue to show a total inability to establish a major league rotation. He allowed one earned run in seven innings to get the win first time out.

So what does it all mean? Not much. This list of 15 phenoms won eight games and lost seven. Betting on them all to win would have lost money, but not much. Betting on all of them to lose would likely not have made much, if any, money. As expected, you just have to do your homework for each game by itself because there doesn’t appear to be any shortcuts among first-timers. Sorry.

With about 29 percent of the MLB season played, you’ve got to wonder about a few things. Let’s consider a few teams when it comes to the Junior Circuit.

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In his third year with the Boston Red Sox, John Lester, cancer survivor, threw a no hitter against the Kansas City Royals. It was the first no-no by a Beantown lefty in 52 years. Last season, Clay Buckholtz threw a no-no. Lester’s no hit game made Jason Varitek unique. Tek is the only MLB catcher to ever anchor four no hitters!

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White Sox pitcher Gavin Floyd just can’t buy a break. The guy has come very close to a no-hitter twice in a month, and both times he has come up short. Tonight he had an out in the ninth against the Twins  before Joe Mauer found a massive gap in left center field for a double. Against the Tigers on April 12 he had an out in the eighth before giving up his first hit to Edgar Renteria. Those two games are closer to a no-hitter than most guys will come in their lives. Floyd is handling his near-misses with a sense of humor, but that’s the kind of thing you’ll see when you close your eyes for the rest of your life iunless you finally do get one.

Though Floyd missed the magical no-hitter, I started thinking about no-no’s as I was watching Floyd’s progress. More specifically, I was wondering what the right thing to do with the White Sox tomorrow would be if they did get a no-hitter today, and what I should do in Floyd’s next start if he got it done. That made me want to look back at recent no-hitters to see how the teams and pitchers bounced back. Is there a trend? Here’s a look at the last 10 no-hitters. (Keep in mind that this is a painfully small sample so it is pretty much meaningless, but it’s late and it’s raining and I’m bored so bear with me):

September 1, 2007 - Clay Buchholz, Boston - Boston won 3-2 the next day against Baltimore. In a truly bizarre move, Buchholz was rewarded for his amazing performance by being moved to the bullpen.

June 12, 2007 - Justin Verlander, Detroit - Detroit lost to Milwaukee as favorites the next day. Verlander had a stellar outing next time out - four hits, one run and 11 strikeouts in seven innings.

April 18, 2007 - Mark Buehrle, White Sox - Chicago beat Texas the next day as favorites. Buehrle was solid in winning his next outing - three earned runs in seven innings.

September 6, 2006 - Anibal Sanchez, Florida - Florida was blown out by Philadelphia the day after this game. Sanchez through seven solid innings (three earned runs in seven innings) in his next start.

May 18, 2004 - Randy Johnson, Arizona - The D-Backs won on the road as favorites in their next game. Johnson allowed two earned runs in seven innings in his next game.

June 11, 2003 - Six pitchers, Houston - The Astros lost to the Yankees the next day, but they were heavy underdogs. No pitcher lasted three innings, so that’s not relevant.

April 27, 2003 - Kevin Millwood, Philadelphia - The Phillies won against the Dodgers the next day as mild underdogs. Millwood was okay in his next start - three earned runs in six innings - but he ended up without a decision.

April 27, 2002 - Kevin Lowe, Boston - The Red Sox lost to Baltimore in their next game as very heavy favorites (-190). Derek Lowe had what seems to be the typical game post-no-hitter - three earned runs in seven innings. He didn’t get a decision, but the Sox did win.

September 3, 2001 - Bud Smith, St. Louis - The Cards won the next day as favorites. Smith didn’t appear again for two weeks, but he was very good - a shutout over seven innings.

May 12, 2001 - A.J. Burnett, Florida - Florida won easily the next day at even money. In his next start (which was just the third of his career) allowed just one run in six and a third to earn a win.

So, what have we learned? Nothing conclusive, but a couple of interesting things. First, there seems not to be a consistent way for a team to respond - the teams were 6-4 in the following games, but were probably only barely profitable because of the lines. On the other hand, it seems like a pitcher is a pretty solid bet coming off a no-hitter. All eight starters that were given a chance to start again in their next start were decent. None lost, and all managed to maintain some of their momentum from the previous game. Definitely worth a bet.

There is a very interesting pitching match-up in Arizona tonight. Two hot teams - the Phillies and the Diamondbacks clash with two pitchers at opposite ends of their careers. Jamie Moyer is older than the dirt he’ll be standing on on the mound, while Max Scherzer is a young phenom making his second MLB appearance and first start. Scherzer is 23. When he was born Moyer was a Cubs prospect in the New York - Penn League.

Scherzer comes into the league with a lot of hype. He’s a power pitcher with a fastball in the high 90’s. He was drafted by the Cardinals in 2003, but he opted to play college ball at Missouri instead, and was chosen again in the first round by Arizona in 2006. He rocketed up through the minor leagues before being called up last week as a reliever. His stint in the bullpen lasted exactly one appearance. He came in in the third inning against Houston last Tuesday after starter Edgar Gonzalez had given up six runs and eight hits. All Scherzer did was throw four and a third perfect innings while striking out seven. Those 13 outs he recorded were the most ever by a reliever in his first career appearance. Needless to say, it took D-Backs management about 12 seconds to decide to move him into the rotation in Gonzalez’ place.

The 45 year old Moyer has spent a good bit of time this year looking like a 45 year old. He is 1-2, he hasn’t won since the second game of the season, has allowed seven or more hits every game since then, and hasn’t made it out of the sixth all year. The Phillies are a solid 12-8 since April 13, but Moyer has been the starter in three of those eight losses.

It might sound like a recipe for disaster in Arizona - rushing a youngster into action so quickly. The list of pitchers who have been ruined through impatience is long. There is good reason to believe that that won’t be the case here, though. Most significantly, the team only needs him to be a fifth starter because they have a pretty darned good rotation ahead of him - Webb, Haren, Johnson, Owings. On top of that, Doug Davis could be back from cancer surgery as soon as a month from now, so Scherzer would likely find himself back in the pen or even back in AAA. If he is, as he appears to be, the real deal then he will have lots of time to show it.

All that aside, his appearance tonight creates an interesting betting situation. Scherzer and Arizona are favored at -156. The 148 price Moyer faces is the biggest he has seen all year, so this is a lot of pressure on a new pitcher making his starting debut. As good as he looked first time out, he was entering a game that was already over so there was no pressure. Now he is under the microscope. He could very well have a great night, but I would find it very hard to argue that there is any value on the Diamondbacks at this price. I think I’ll just be an interested observer tonight.

UPDATE: Age prevailed over beauty. Moyer had a pretty good night. Scherzer didn’t. Philadelphia won by seven runs.

I’ve been sidetracked by the draft for a few days, but it is time now to get back to thinking about baseball. Here are a few of the things that caught my attention as I was getting caught back up:”

• Barry Zito makes $126 million and now he is heading to the bullpen. That’s ugly but not surprising - he’s o-6 after all. Still, this is a massive fall from grace for a guy who was supposed to be one of the elite arms in the league. A lot of bettors are probably pretty happy to see him go, too - he’s been an underdog in every game he has played, and at some juicy prices, so a lot of people have probably been sucked in by thinking that his next game could finally be the one in which he turns it around. When he’s in the bullpen that temptation is eliminated.
• James Shields had a ridiculously good game against the Red Sox - a two hit complete game shutout with seven strikeouts and just one walk. It was no fluke, though - this guy can pitch. He was 12-8 last year for a team that only won 66 games, and his strikeout to walk ratio was better than 5-to-1. This year he has allowed just 11 runs in six games, and he hasn’t allowed more than three in a game. His ERA dropped a full point from his first year in 2006 to last year, and it has dropped more than 1.3 points so far this year. Best yet he’s only 26, so the best is still ahead of him.
• Since we’re on the topic of pitchers, I owe a mea culpa to Chien Ming Wang. At the start of last year I was positive that this guy was a half-weight masquerading as a top-of-the rotation starter. He’d gone 19-6 the previous year, but I had no faith in his ability to recreate it. He didn’t - he went 19-7 instead. Now he has started out 5-0 on a team that is otherwise struggling, He has had one disastrous start - eight earned runs in four innings against the Red Sox - but in that one his team managed to bail him out and win 15-9 to leave him without a loss. I still can’t say that I’m in love with his stuff or that he’s a guy I like to watch pitch, but I really have no choice but to admit that this guy is an elite starter. Now if only the Yankees had another one to join him.

I know that I spend more time talking about the AL Central than anything else in baseball, but it is just so darned fascinating that you can’t look away - it’s like simultaneous car crashes. I was just about to sit down and right a comment of some sort about how the Tigers were finally showing some signs of life - they had won three straight after all, and their offense was hitting on all cylinders. I was also going to throw in a comment about how troubled Cleveland was - they were supposed to be neck and neck with Detroit, and they were, but it wasn’t supposed to be at 5-10. I had been busy all day, and I hadn’t checked out the scores all day, so I took a quick look before making my comments. So much for that article. After Detroit blew away the Indians 13-2 yesterday, they are now trailing Cleveland 11-1 in the 8th.

Cleveland’s best pitcher is C.C. Sabathia. Supposedly. You’d never guess it from the mess that he put out yesterday - nine earned runs in four innings. That moves him to 0-3, and raises some real concerns for backers of the team. I probably would have talked about that for a while, and then tried to find a comparison with the Tigers that made Detroit look better - you know, to build the the argument that Detroit was getting better. So much for that. Justin Verlander, Detroit’s best pitcher, went out tonight and threw out another stinker. He allowed five earned runs in five innings, and unless the Tigers make a miraculous comeback in the ninth he will move to a matching 0-3 record. To confound my problems, I probably would have made some comment about how Fausto Carmona signed a rich new contract and promptly went out and sucked badly in his first game as a rich man. That argument is pretty irrelevant now that Carmona went out and allowed just one run in six and two thirds tonight.

The point is that I have given up trying to figure out what is going on in this division. To make it more confounding, the teams that were supposed to be fighting for the spot at the bottom of the league - Chicago and Kansas City - are instead dueling at the top. It’s things like the start this division is enjoying (some of the teams, anyway) that are good for sports bettors - they remind us that logic isn’t an infallible tool. Sometimes things just don’t make sense, so you might as welll just sit back and enjoy the ride. Enjoy the car wreck, and just make sure that you don’t get caught in it.

I’m sitting here watching the Diamondbacks pound the life out of the Giants. That’s not much of an accomplishment, of course - I could take all the guys that live on my block and probably play the Giants tight. What is pretty clear, though, is that the D-Backs are a pretty fine team. I’m not exactly going out on a limb to say that - the win they are pretty much guaranteed to get this afternoon will move them to 10-4, which is the best record in the league (tied with the surprising Cardinals if they beat Milwaukee tonight). Unlike some of the teams that have jumped out to fast starts (that means you, Baltimore), Arizona has the look of a team that will be there until the end. This doesn’t come as a huge surprise - they are the third choice in the National League behind the Cubs and the Mets to win the World Series in the futures market.

The thing I like most about this team is that, with the exception of Justin Upton (ore about him later) the team isn’t hitting at an unsustainable level. Many of the other frontrunners are hitting out of their minds, but the D-Backs only have two players hitting over .300. That means that they can basically keep doing what they are doing, and keep winning as a result. They aren’t wining a lot of games by just one run (just one of their ten wins), so there is room for their offense to struggle a bit more than it is and still be sufficient to keep them competitive.

Back to Justin Upton. This rightfielder is just 20 years old and in his first full season in the big leagues, but you would never guess it by the way he is playing. He is hitting .388 with a ridiculous OBPS of .1143. It’s always a gamble when you pass the reins over to a guy so young, but he is certainly holding up his end of the bargain so far. He’ll obviously slow down from this ridiculous pace, but he has so much natural talent that the fall shouldn’t be extreme. This guy is the real deal, and he will be a big part of this team for as long as they keep him.

There isn’t a team out there that has a rotation any more effective in the top three spots than Arizona. Brandon Webb is obviously an elite starter, and his 3-0 start with a 2.14 ERA shows that he is right back in his own habits. Micah Owings has matured nicely, and looks as if he will live up to the potential he showed in his first year last year. He’s 2-0 to start, and will move to 3-0 when today’s game is finished. Danny Haren is also 2-0, the addition from Oakland who is making the switch of leagues look as  easy as it can possibly be. Add in Randy Johnson, who looked pretty good in his first action in a long time yesterday, and you have a solid rotation.

So, what’s my point? This is one of those teams that you will be able to rely on when you need a win over the season. They aren’t going to pay a lot because they are no secret to the public, and they won’t present a huge amount of value very often, but they are just a well built, reliable, solid team. A bettor needs a few of those in their repertoire.

When the Mets acquired Johan Santana from the Twins in exchange for mostly underwhelming talent it was seen as a steal - a major coup. The conventional wisdom was that he was the most dominant pitcher in the American League, so he would dominate in the weaker National League. He’s only three games into his new career, so it is far too soon to draw any conclusions yet, but if he plans to be dominant then he is easing into it. He’s just 1-2 after a loss on Saturday against Milwaukee, and as such he has burnt a fair bit of bettor money up so far. That’s not going according to plan, but is it time to panic yet? Of course not. Here are six reasons why:

1. K/BB ratio - One of the most glaringly impressive stats that Santana consistently puts forth is his strikeout to walk ratio - between 4/1 and 5/1 the last four years when he has been at his best. This year he has 18 strikeouts and just four walks - a 4.5/1 ratio. I love that stat as a solid indicator of quality, and Santana is at a significantly high level of quality this year as he always is.

2. Run support - Simply put, he hasn’t had any. The Mets have scored just two runs while he has been in the game during his last two outings. The lovechild of Sandy Koufax and Cy Young would struggle to win under those circumstances. The Mets have scored more runs than 18 other teams in the league, and they have the real potential to do much better than they are, so the problems that Santana has faced will be less of a problem as the season continues.

3. Schedule - His losses have come against Atlanta and Milwaukee. Those are two of the better teams in the league - they should both be competitive right to the end in their divisions. If he stays healthy then he will pitch against Washington twice and Pittsburgh once in his next half dozen starts. He’ll look much better in those games. The schedule will soften up and he’ll get his chance to shine against lesser competition through the season. His first start was against Florida, and he had by far his best start of the year.

4. Not typically a fast starter - Santana has won the Cy Young twice - in 2004 and 2006. He has stumbled at the start of both seasons. He had no decisions in each of his first starts in 2004, and was just 2-4 at the beginning of June, but he only lost twice after that point. He wasn’t nearly as bad in 2006, but he did go 0-3 in his first four starts before finding his stride. If he is still underwhelming two months from now then we should be concerned, but not now.

5. It’s not as easy as it seems - Moving from the AL to the NL has been proven to be very hard time and again in recent years. Tim Hudson has looked no better in the lesser league - he has had the same number of wins in his first three years in Atlanta as he had in his last three in Oakland. Barry Zito seemingly forgot how to pitch when he crossed the bay from Oakland to San Francisco. Derek Lowe was lousy in his first year in L.A., and it took Andy Pettitte a year to find his way in Houston. Interleague play and better video technology mean that new pitchers aren’t as mysterious as they used to be when they switch leagues, and batters aren’t as lost as people may think. Santana is going to be fine, and it probably won’t take a whole season, but if it does that’s just fine.

6. It takes time to love a catcher - For the last 3+ year, Santana has been throwing to Joe Mauer every time out. Mauer is among the best in the league, and they obviously worked well together. Now he has to get used to another catcher, Brian Schneider. There are signs that the comfort isn’t there yet - Santana has never had more than seven wild pitches in a season, and he has three in his first three games this year. Schneider has to get used to a new team as well, and he is struggling mightily at the bat, so he isn’t comfortable or at his best yet, either. On top of all that, he has never caught a pitcher anywhere near the caliber of Santana before - he spent his whole career in Washington until this year - so he can’t help but be a bit intimidated. When Schneider finds his stride and he and Santana build a relationship then they will be fine.

So, if you are one of the guys that has lost money on Santana this year and you are trying to figure out what is going on, just don’t worry about it. You may want to lay off him for a while while he gets comfortable, but there is no reason to believe that he is anything other than the Santana we have come to know and love. Maybe we have been watching too much football and college basketball, so we have forgotten just how long the baseball season is, and how meaningless one game is.

The AL Central has been fascinating so far this year, and I’m not just talking about how bad the Tigers have been. The Royals are a team that I was relatively optimistic about. I’m not crazy enough to love the team - by relatively optimistic I mean better than they have been in four years, but that only means that they need a win total that starts with a seven. Even though, I liked them, though, I certainly didn’t see them jumping out to a 6-2 start and a perch at the top of their division. They swept the Tigers to start the season, faltered lightly against Minnesota, and now they have a chance to sweep the Yankees tonight. That is two presumed playoff teams that have fallen to the Royals. It’s unexpected, but can it be sustainable? How are they doing it, and can they keep doing it?

I liked this team for three main reasons - they have a pitching staff which is better than they get credit for, they have a couple of incredible young hitting talents, and they hired themselves a very good first time manager. So far, things have been going as hoped.

Gil Meche hasn’t been great, but Zack Greinke seems to have his mental problems under control, and he has been almost unhittable. Brian Bannister and Brett Tomko have been almost as good. The rotation is full of talented but underappreciated guys, and they are working well. They won’t stay as strong as they have been, but they don’t have the look of a group that are just counting the seconds until their inevitable collapse, either. There are several teams out there with much more to worry about on the pitching side than the Royals.

The young bats - Alex Gordon and Billy Butler - have been every bit as good as expected. Better, even. Butler is hitting .406, while Gordon is at .303 and leads the team in home runs and RBIs. Besides them you have a couple of guys who are better than they get credit for. First baseman Ross Gload has bounced around a bit in his career, but he has a .295 career batting average in almost 370 games. He’s hitting .345 so far this year. Mark Grudzielanek is seen as a journeyman by most people, but the 37 year old has hit a very solid .290 on his career, and better than that in each of the last five seasons. The fact that he is hitting .407 is a bit of a surprise, but that he is leading the team in batting average isn’t.  It all boils down to this - he team has benefited from hot bats, but they haven’t been overachieving to such an extent that the team will be significantly worse down the road.

Trey Hillman, the new manager, is the third and perhaps biggest element in the big start. The guy is a born motivator - just listening to the guy for two seconds makes you want to jump up and do something. Whatever he is doing is working.

This team has been wildly profitable so far - they have been favored just once, and a $100 bet on each game would have generated a total profit of $698 in just eight games. That pace won’t keep up obviously, but I do suspect that their rate of improvement this year significantly exceeds thepublic perception of the team, and that means that they could provide serious value this year. The last time they were any good - in 2003 when they won 83 games - the public never really caught up to them, and they ended the year as the fourth most profitable team in the league.