Maddux Sports Blog

Impressive win by Macho Again in the Jim Dandy. As I said yesterday, I really like this horse. His race was troubled, and he was in traffic trouble on the last turn, but he found a way to make a move for the lead, and then he held off an impressive late charge by Pyro. This is the first graded stakes win for Macho Again, but I don’t expect it to be the last. The horse looks physically more impressive and mentally more mature with every start. In a perfect world he would run in the Travers next month, again in September, and then he’d make his way to Santa Anita for the Breeders’ Cup. I’m not suggesting that he’s at the top of his class, but he is certainly among a handful of elite runners.

This weekend’s NASCAR race was one of the biggest jokes in recent sporting history, and it’s a scar on the sport. Goodyear delivered lousy tires that couldn’t hold up on the abrasive Indy track, so there had to be a caution every 10 laps or so so that the entire field could change their tires. That obviously robbed the drama and strategy out of the race, and it just turned it into a seven lap sprint at the end with a really long warm up. Jimmie Johnson won, and any victory counts, but this is not one to be proud of.

I am a big Manny Ramirez fan, and that comes from an equal mix of his incredible hitting talent and the bizarre spectacle that he is. I don’t have any love for the Red Sox, though, so the talk of a divorce between Man-Ram and the Sox makes me very happy. I don’t expect it to happen, but a move to Philly would really spice up the NL East race and make the Phillies a serious contender for post-season honors. Theo Epstein won’t pull the trigger on this one, though, because he doesn’t have to, and because Manny’s huge contract ensures that the Sox won’t be able to get equivalent value for him. Boston is in no position to downgrade their roster given the intense race that they are in. Manny might be a freak, but he’s a freak that can hit like almost no one else on the planet.

It’s hot and sunny here (a rare occurrence this summer) and I am off to an outdoor music festival in just a few minutes, so I’ll apologize in advance if my concentration has been more focused at other times. I like you all, and I appreciate that you read what I write, but you don’t hold a candle to beer, music and sunshine and I’m not going to apologize for that. Before I go, though, I thought that I would share a few of the things that are bouncing through my sporting mind today:

1. Brett Favre as a Jet makes me happy. The green New Yorkers have reportedly been given permission to talk to Favre. He’d be a good fit. I don’t love their receiving situation at all, and I am desperate for the AFC East to be more competitive than it currently appears that it will be. Let’s get it done soon so we can quit talking about this endless story.

2. There is an outstanding day of horse racing from Saratoga tomorrow. I will be writing more about this tomorrow morning, but there are four very interesting races in a row from the world’s greatest race track, and it appears as if ABC is going to show us all four of them starting at 4:00 p.m. EST. Brilliant.

3. Big Papi returns to action tonight. With the trade deadline just around the corner, this is a more significant addition than Boston could make through any transaction. If Ortiz is even halfway healthy then this gives Boston a much needed boost to try to take advantage of a Tampa Bay team that is looking more mortal and is suddenly truly awful at hitting with men in scoring position.

4. Jeff Samardzija was called up by the Cubs. How smart does the former Notre Dame receiver look now? He got a massive signing bonus, he’s a pro now, and he didn’t have to live through the disgrace that is the recent Charlie Weis era

5. AFL loses commissioner. David Baker, the commissioner of the Arena Football League, resigned suddenly today after 12 years on the job. The move came two days before the ArenaBowl. I only have one real response to this - the AFL stillexists? Talk about a league that has failed to impact the public consciousness to any real extent.

I said I wasn’t going to do it, but in the end I found myself watching a fair bit of the All-Star game. I even enjoyed it. The league almost got itself into a big pickle, though, with the way it ended. Or almost didn’t end. After they took steps to avoid a recurrence of the ridiculous tie of 2002 it almost happened again anyway. Because of that, and just to make the game more interesting in general, here are a few changes I would recommend that they make to the game. I don’t think that it needs a major overhaul, but since it is an exhibition game anyway these tweaks could make the game more interesting.

1. Let pitchers bring their catchers. The most interesting part of the game is watching the stud pitchers make unfamiliar batters look ridiculous. That happened a fair bit last night, but it would happen even more if guys were throwing to their own catchers. That way the pitch calls would be more aggressive, and the pitchers would be more comfortable. You could still elect catchers to the team and you could let the elected catchers bat, but this change would make the game more watchable.

2. Give pitchers more flexibility. The desire managers have to get as many players into the game as possible forces them into bad decisions. For example, Terry Francona pulled out K-Rod after just one out because he felt the need to make sure that Mariano Rivera got to pitch in front of his hometown crowd. K-Rod still had lots of juice left in his arm, but he was out of service. Because this is an exhibition game, the simple fix is to change the rules so that a pitcher can leave and re-enter the game. There is no reason why K-Rod couldn’t have been available again later on in the game if needed. The same goes for Brian Wilson on the National side - he only lasted two-thirds of an inning. It also goes for any of the eight starting pitchers who only pitched for an inning. This would ensure we would never again have to live in fear of a tie.

3. Fold the Yankees. This is a pipe dream, but it would definitely help both the all-star game and the league in general.

We learned  couple of things from the Home Run Derby tonight - it can incredibly entertaining, and the overall format is flawed. Watching Josh Hamilton’s tour de force was one of the coolest things I have done in a long while. The problem, though, is that no one cared about the result after that all happened. Justin Morneau is a fellow Canadian, and I am proud of him for coming through, but he didn’t deserve to win, and no one cares that he does. Instead of making it a three round contest like it is which just tires out batters and pitchers and rarely builds to a dramatic finish, it is time they tweak it a bit. They should invite a few more guys to participate, give each guy a few more outs, and just have one round. It didn’t matter what happened after Hamilton did his thing, so the format should be such that he didn’t have to do anything. The way it is now, Morneau hit fewer home runs in three rounds than Hamilton did in one, and he still won.

Interesting news out of Indianapolis today - Peyton Manning had knee surgery to remove an inflamed bursa sac. He’s been trying to recover since February, but surgery finally became the best option. He is expected back at his best in four to six weeks, and his consecutive game streak shouldn’t be threatened. It is amazing how some guys operate under the microscope while other mega-stars can totally elude scrutiny. Obviously being in Indianapolis has something to do with it - we know nothing about what Manning does when he isn’t on the field, and we knew nothing about Marvin Harrison until his alleged shooting incident in the spring (which has conveniently seemed to have gone away).

Again, I must qualify this next story by saying that summer league basketball is virtually meaningless. That being said, a couple of interesting performances came out in the first game for Minnesota and Dallas. The T-Wolves cruised to an easy win on the strength of an impressive showing by Kevin Love. The start was rocky, but he ended up with 18 points and 13 rebounds. I have reasonably high hopes that he will exceed expectations as a pro, so this was a good start. The other one to note was Dallas’ Shan Foster. The former Vanderbilt star had 17 points. Foster didn’t get the respect I think he deserved in the draft. He’s a bit one-dimensional, but he just knows how to score. He joins DeAndre Jordan and Chris Douglas-Roberts as guys who could wind up being major steals in the second round.

Strange story from the Islanders’ camp. They fired Ted Nolan today after two years as coach, citing differing philosophies between coach and management. Nolan was out of coaching for about a decade after winning coach of the year in Buffalo. He reportedly feuded with his goalie there, and many say he got his GM fired as well. In New York he got more out of the team than they deserved with the talent they had, but he reportedly feuded with his goaltender, and he obviously couldn’t get along with his GM. It will be very interesting to see if he will get another job, or if the emerging pattern will put him squarely back on the black list. Things must have been pretty bleak if they warranted his firing this long after the season ended, and this close to rookie camps and, as hard as it is to believe, the start of training camp. The new staff will be starting from behind.

Jeff Borris, the agent for Barry Bonds, says his client has not received a single offer from a team looking for his services, and that the prospects look bleak for him to play this year. I hate when bad things happen to good people.

How bad could it get for the Rays? Just a short week ago they were the talk of the league, sporting a five game lead in the least budget-conscious division in sports after winning 11 of 12 games. They haven’t won a game since. They dropped their sixth straight game tonight, and their previously comfortable lead is down to just half a game over the Red Sox. Oops. That’s now how the fairy tale was supposed to go heading into the All-Star break.

The latest one, tonight against Cleveland, was especially ugly. Matt Ginter hadn’t won in the majors in four years, yet he pulled it off. He was only pulled into action because the Indians needed to fill the spot vacated by Sabathia, and he was cheap and simple. Ryan Garko was in a hitting slump that hadn’t earned him an extra base hit in more than a month, yet he had five RBIs.

That loss to Cleveland was the third in a row, and it’s a sign of the reason why Tampa Bay fans probably aren’t feeling very good right now. The Indians, since losing Sabathia, know their season is over. It is too straightforward to assume that that means that they will just quit and pack it in, but it would seem more than likely that the Rays could have zapped the Indians of some will if they had come out playing strong. Cleveland had lost 10 straight coming into the series and their rotation was a disaster. Instead, the Rays lost the three games by a combined 26-6.

So, how bad could it get? I am sure that the Rays can right the ship and get things back in order. I would feel better, though, if they weren’t so young and inexperienced. For most of the team this will be the worst adversity that they have faced. That could make it too easy to panic, and they really don’t need to panic - at 55-38 they still have the third best record in baseball and are still atop their division. A win on Sunday would keep them there for the All-Star break. The break also comes at a great time for them to get their heads back on straight and come out swinging the next time around.

So, the point? Don’t give up on the Rays yet. It is more than conceivable that they could falter now, come back to earth a bit and miss the playoffs. I’m going to give them the benefit of the doubt, though. For now. They have been too surprising for too long now to assume that this is anything more than a pretty large pothole on the road to brighter things.

I’ve got a summer cold - the worst punishment for past sins imaginable. It’s a doozy, too. Given that, I’d love to be catty and dismissive to a few teams or players to make myself feel better. Sadly, though, there are a couple of big stories tonight that I really like and am quite enthusiastic about. That’s no fun.

1. Cubs acquire Rich Harden. This is a great move. The Sabathia trade gave the Brewers a clear pitching edge in the division, but the Cubs took immediate and decisive steps to restore the balance of power. Zambrano and Harden may not be quite as good as Sheets and Sabathia, but they are pretty darned close. Better yet, Harden has an option for next year that the Cubs are very likely to exercise, so this isn’t just a short-term fix. On top of it all, the Cubs also got Chad Gaudin in the deal. He’s not a superstar by any means, but he’s a solid arm that can start or eat up innings in the pen. Piniella had him in Tampa bay, so he knows what he has and it’s a good sign that he obviously wanted him again. As good as all that is, I like it for Oakland, too. They got younger, but they didn’t give Harden away. They got some solid assets back, and they saved themselves from having to make a tough decision about Harden - an obviously talented pitcher with some injury problems - down the road. Stability is a big part of the Billy Beane system, and this move buys future stability at a fair price. The biggest impact of this deal, though, is the message it sends to the Cubs and their fans - this is the year.

2. Elton Brand reportedly has a deal with the Sixers. I like this one for a lot of reasons. From a karma perspective, I have to say that this one sits really well with me. Baron Davis lied to the fans in Golden State who had been nothing but good to him when he opted out and bolted to the Clippers. Proximity to Hollywood was the big draw it seems, but obviously playing with Brand was a big motivation as well. Because of Davis’ deal, though, the Clippers didn’t have the cap space to match the Philly offer. I especially love this move from the Philly perspective. The Sixers hosted the first NBA regular season game I ever saw live, so I have always had a soft spot for them. They were so impressive as serious underdogs against the Celtics in the playoffs, and they have a very good core of young players - Iguodala, Miller, Young, and rookie Speights. Brand gives them an interior presence they needed badly, and it gives him a system and a team that he can help lift to the next level. He never had that in L.A., and this team is better in my mind than the Clippers would have been with him and Davis. Despite the continued strength at the top, the East is wildly competitive, and this move makes the Sixers as good as any non-elite team in the conference. That had to factor significantly into Brand’s decision.

A couple other quick things:

I really don’t care about summer league basketball at all, but I do take good things from the play of Michael Beasley so far. He came out against the Bulls and absolutely ripped them up. The next day against the Nets he was terrible 1-for-13 from the floor. That’s rough, but he had the right attitude about it in the post-game meetings with the press - he wasn’t worried about it because bad games happen and, more importantly, the team won. He’s doing this all with a fractured sternum, so I can’t really think of any reason why the Heat would be anything but thrilled by their pick.

O.J. Mayo and Joe Alexander both signed today. I’m very happy to see that teams are getting their players on board quickly.

It isn’t official yet, but it seems that C.C. Sabathia ia about to become a Brewer. Word is that he will be exchanged for a four player package that centers around Matt LaPorta, an outfielder who is tearing it up in AA this year after being the seventh overall pick in the draft last year out of Florida. A few thoughts on the deal:

1. I like the deal from the Brewers… as long as it works out. The NL doesn’t have a lot of strength this year, so Milwaukee could make a run this year. They may not be able to catch Chicago, but they are currently in the wild card, St. Louis is the only team that is really close,and the Brewers should be better than the Cardinals down the stretch (even without this deal). This move significantly improves their rotation, strengthens the bullpen by allowing them to move a current starter into a long reliever position, and should give them the confidence that comes from a stud pitcher and a player with deep recent playoff experience. My only hesitation from a full endorsement for this deal is that it pretty much has to work this year. It is almost certain that the team won’t re-sign both Sabathia and Ben Sheets, and it is very possible that they will have neither player back next year. This is a bold move for this year, and this year only.

2. That being said, I am okay with them trading away LaPorta. He is hitting well, and he looks like he should be able to continue that in the bigs, but his fielding is reportedly less than stellar. It would be far more attractive to have a player like that around if Milwaukee was still in the AL where they can stick him in at DH.

3. The other piece of upside for the Brewers is that they will get two compensatory draft picks if they are unable to sign Sabathia after this year. That reduces the risk of the deal.

4. It will be very interesting to see what Sabathia can do now that he will get to hit regularly. He certainly has looked good in his occasional attempts.

5. I love the timing for both teams. Cleveland can get on with their season without having the distraction of the inevitable deal hanging over their heads. Milwaukee gets to see him on the mound a couple of times before the all-star break so that he is settled in and ready to go when action heats up again.

6. I will be watching closely to see how he adapts to the change in leagues. We have recent conflicting data on how easy it is for good pitchers to move over to the senior circuit. Danny Haren has pulled it off well, but Johan Santana hasn’t been as good as we might have thought, and Barry Zito has been historically bad.

7. Sabathia’s numbers aren’t great (6-8. 3.83 ERA), but they are deceptive. He was awful at the start of the year, but he has been fantastic since then. Few pitchers have been any better, and he would be even more successful if the Indians could score a run or two.

8. It will be interesting to see if the Indians rise up after this, if they give up, or if little changes. I could imagine each scenario being possible.

Eric Gagne is off the DL. He has been there since May 21 with tendinitis in his rotator cuff. He passed a 30 pitch bullpen test and will be active starting tonight. Milwaukee fans sitting in the outfield will want to be sure that they have their gloves with them when Gagne hits the mound. This guy seems to have forgotten how to pitch.

The Braves are in a world of hurt when it comes to starting pitching. Tim Hudson is the only guy in their rotation currently who has more than 10 career wins. I did not make a mistake writing that. Jair Jurrens, Charlie Morton and Jorge Campillo are rookies. Jo-Jo Reyes might as well be one. Injuries have led to this extreme youth movement. It would be a mistake to assume that the team is in trouble because of the youth, but you couldn’t be blamed for doubting the team if the pitchers are going to face a strange situation for a first time. Unfortunately, the public will likely mostly bet the value out of the youngsters.

Though it is being written and talked about too much, the showdown series between the Rays and the Red Sox should be a doozy this week. The previous games between these two has been and odd one - the home team has swept all three series. Tampa plays host in this one. The series starts with a great matchup - the quietly solid Justin Masterson takes the mound for Boston against Tampa’s ace James Shields. To be fair, it’s a bit of a stretch to call Shields the ace right now. He finally got a win against Florida last time out to go to 5-5, but that was his first win since the beginning of May. The team is 4-2 in his last six starts, though, and he is a very talented starter.

I’m thrilled that stupid interleague play is finally over. Not as thrilled as the National League is, though.

Spain suffered a damaging, and potentially fatal, blow as they prepare for the Euro 2008 finals against Germany. Striker David Villa will miss the finals thanks to a sore hamstring. Villa is the tournament’s leading scorer, and he has been dynamite both when he is scoring and when he isn’t, so his loss is a real blow to both the team’s chances and their confidence. Spain is still fairly heavily favored to win it all (surprisingly heavily, really), but Germany becomes an even  more attractive underdog given this news.

Very strange story coming out from the NBA Draft concerning Darrell Arthur. Reportedly several teams passed on him because of news of kidney problems. Atlanta was the only team that actually tested him, though, and they gave him a clean bill of health. That news didn’t seem to get out in time, though, and he fell from a likely spot in the lottery all the way down to 27th. That will cost him a lot of money, but it also has to be ridiculously frustrating and a bit humiliating for the player. If he is the kind of guy that can use that as motivation then it could fuel a good year for him. I just can’t believe that we are getting the whole story. Surely in this age teams would have done their homework about something like that. That’s especially the case for San Antonio. THey culd have picked him one spot sooner than he was picked, but instead they went for a guy from IUPUI that no one has ever heard of that almost certainly could have been had later on. Even if the Spurs didn’t like Arthur it probably would have made sense to acquire him purely as an asset.

The White Sox crushed the Cubs today, and the  Mets humiliated the Yankees. What does it say about me that I get a perverse and profound pleasure from both developments. Unfortunately, the Yankees came back and returned the favor in the second half of the double bill.

Ana Ivanovic became the latest top three seed to fall at Wimbledon today, following Maria Sharapova and Novak Djokovic. The third round departure was the earliest exit by a number one seed since 2001. The bloodbath at the top is bad news for bettors, but the sportsbooks must be loving it because they will be making a killing from people looking to make the safe hit. I don’t expect the disaster to continue on the men’s side. In fact, I am very confident that it will be Nadal - Federer in the final. Yet again.

The Tigers have now won 14 of 18, and they are looking pretty much exactly like we expected them to (except for Dontrelle Willis, who is toiling away in obscurity in the minors somewhere). I was about to write that Tigers fans must be relieved and thrilled, but as I think about it I just think that if I was a Detroit backer I would be pissed. We knew all along that they could play like this, so why did they insist on throwing their season away with that horrendous start? Thankfully, they play in the AL Central, so the playoffs are not at all out of the question despite the fact that they have not yet returned to .500. To win the division, though, they will have to hope that the Twins remember once again that they are the Twins. Minnesota won their tenth in a row, and 12th in 13 games tonight. Talk about a team getting it done with smoke and mirrors.

Novak Djokovic is an absolute moron, and I suspect that there is no one more embarrassed on the planet right now. If you missed it, he spent a great deal of effort last week telling everyone who would listen to him that Roger Federer was vulnerable. Since Djokovic was set to play him in the semi-finals at Wimbledon if they both made it that far, the clear assumption was that Djokovic was going to beat him. I have no problem with a claim like that. You have to back it up, though. Djokovic didn’t even come close. He came out in the second round of the tournament and fell in straight sets to Marat Safin. Safin used to be good once, but those times are a distant memory. Djokovic should have been able to win the match in his sleep, but instead he looked lethargic and unfocused. Even worse, he whined his way through the whole match. Terrible. This is one more reason added to an already large pile why I don’t buy into the prevailing theory that Djokovic is a future number one.

So far, so good for the Blue Jays after their change of manager. After a seven game losing streak the team has one two in a row. More importantly, the offensively inept team has scored 22 runs in the two wins, and their 22 hits in the 14-1 win over Cincinnati last night was the best by any team all year. The most noticeable thing when you see the team play is that they are visibly relaxed. Under John Gibbons they were tense and they didn’t look like they were having any fun. Given that the change is so noticeable it seems odd that Gibbons was able to hold on so long. This team should, on paper anyway, be able to hit much better than they have been.

The best part of that Toronto - Cincinnati game last night was the line posted by Reds’ starter Bronson Arroyo. He lasted one inning, allowing 11 hits and 10 earned runs. It doesn’t take a math major to figure that that makes for an ERA of 90.00 on the game. That hurts the long-term stats - it bumps the ERA from an already dismal 5.55 to an ugly 6.52. Ouch.

The Fresno State Bulldogs have made the finals of the College World Series in Omaha. To do so they knocked out North Carolina, a finalist the last two years. UNC was ranked second in the country. Fresno State was the first fourth seeded team in a regional to make the CWS, so it is certainly the first to make the finals. They were the longest shot in the field (15/1) at the start of the CWS, but they just won’t quit. Remember, before they knocked out UNC they had to eliminate Arizona State, the number three team in the country. The story gets even more Disney-like - the team is playing without their top pitcher, Tanner Scheppers, who was injured late in the regular season.

Fresno State moves on to a battle of the Bulldogs in the finals when they face Georgia. Those Bulldogs were the second longest shots on the board at the start of the tourney. Whichever Bulldogs win, this final is proof of one truth that every bettor needs to remember - handicapping isn’t always nearly as easy as we wish it could be.

Another day, another manager fired. This time it was John Gibbons in Toronto. That comes a day after Seattle made a change, and just a few days after Willie Randolph started this current epidemic of managerial upgrades.

Just like the previous two firings, this one was unquestionably needed. The Blue Jays have one of the best starting rotations in the league, and they have no shortage of batting talent, but they are underachieving at the plate as much as it is possible for a team to do (except for Seattle). It’s frankly a bit of a surprise that Gibbons, a guy who thinks that challenging a player to a fist fight isn’t necessarily a bad idea, made it this far.

More remarkable than this inevitable firing is who Toronto tabbed to replace Gibbons - Cito Gaston. If you recall, Gaston is the guy who led the Blue Jays to back-to-back World Series victories. A few observations from that front:

1. This is a clear sign that J.P. Ricciardi is all but done in Toronto. There is no way that Ricciardi made this hire. Gaston is an ownership man, and they pull the strings on this one. Ricciardi has prove yet again that he is a goof with this Adam Dunn kerfuffle this week, and his days are very numbered. I figure he will play out the season and then ‘leave to pursue other opportunities’. Good riddance - the guy is lousy. I live in Canada, and the sports radio station in my home town is owned by the same group that owns the Jays, so this story got lots of coverage today. In all of that coverage it is Paul Godfrey, the President and CEO of the team, that is quoted or makes a comment. Ricciardi is silent.

2. Gaston is an odd case. He took over an underachieving team full of holes midway through th 1989 season, and he turned them into dominant champs. He ultimately left the team rather unceremoniously in 1997, and he hasn’t managed since. He was a finalist with Detroit and the White Sox, but he hasn’t been offered anything better than a hitting instructor job. On paper he clearly deserves another shot, so there must be a less-than-enjoyable part of his personality from the management perspective.

3. This move will by the team time from the fans. Gaston is wildly popular in Toronto for obvious reasons, and his return will be seen as the greatest move ever. It probably won’t actually turn out to be a great move, but it will buy the Jays some time to turn things around from a roster perspective.

4. Gaston has a background as a hitting coach, and this team can’t hit at all, so he seems like a good fit. If he sticks with what he knows then he should be fine. The risk, though, is that he will rest on his past laurels. None of the current players will care about that and it will go badly.

5. It will be interesting to see if Gaston’s hiring is basically just a P.R. move or if he will be given real input into this team. There are several players on the roster that are not his type of guys, so if changes start to be made then we’ll quickly know that Gaston is for real.

6. This does nothing to change the Jays’ fundamental problem - they likely will never return to former glory until they can find a way to get out of the AL East. The last decade would have looked very different for them if they were in the AL Central.

7. Who’s next? I’m not going to do the research, but I would guess that this is the most mid-season firings we have seen in one week in a long time. If ever. There are a few more guys who probably don’t need to stay where they are. Clint Hurdle has his team playing better in Colorado, but it’s still pretty ugly, and it has the real potential to get worse. Cleveland and Detroit are both spending too much money to be patient forever. Manny Acta is terrible in Washington, but to be fair there isn’t a manager alive that could do anything with that mess. Cecil Cooper is only in his first full year as manager in Houston after taking over as an interim last year, but he isn’t doing much with the talent he has and gives us little reason to believe that he has a long, bright future. After failing to make the playoffs last year and basically failing to win a game this year, Bud Black may be in some trouble in San Diego. Heck, if this firing pace keeps up baseball could soon be like the NBA was a couple of years ago.

8. There was an almost total change in the coaching staff at the same time. Most notable was that Dwayne Murphy replaces Ernie Whitt as first base coach. Murphy was the guy who hit behind Rickey Henderson in Oakland when Rickey was at his base stealing best. He was a very good and underappreciated player, and he is still a legend in Oakland. Sadly, Toronto doesn’t travel to Oakland for the rest of the year, so we don’t get to enjoy the interesting, though totally meaningless, story of how Murphy is received in his homecoming. In another blast from the past, Gene Tenace is the hitting coach. Tenace filled that same role when Gaston was last the manager, and he was a successful interim manager for a short spell when Gaston had to take time off with back problems.

9. I hope the Jays realize that bringing back the 1992 staff won’t bring back 1992 results.

The thing every baseball fan seems to want to talk about right now is whether Chipper Jones can hit .400 on the year. He’s at .419 as of today, and he is hitting like a demon. Since I’m a baseball fan, and because we should see a prop on the issue pretty soon (there may already be one out there, but I haven’t seen it), I figured I would weigh in with my opinion and some analysis.

First, let’s cut to the chase. Is he going to do it? In a word, no. Absolutely not. Need more than that? Here are five of my reasons (I could come up with several more if I had to, but only one good reason in favor of him doing it - I want him to):

OBP - On-base percentage isn’t directly correlated to batting average, but it is pretty close. The real connection is this - You need to have a very good on-base percentage to hit .400. Right now Jones does - .504. The problem is that that is 63 points higher than his previous career best, and that was way back in 1999. We have no good reason to believe that his on-base percentage can stay as high as it is, so I find it hard to believe that the average will stay high.

Strikeouts to walks - Part of Jones’ success is that he has been walking quite a bit and not striking out much. The walks don’t help his average at all, but they do show that he is being patient, and that patience is needed to have a h uge average. Strikeouts are the oppsoite - they hurt your average and show you aren’t being patient. This year Jones has had 1.56 walks for every strikeout. That’s higher than he has ever had. Last year he had 1.09, and he hit .337. In 13 full years he has had four seasons in which he has had more strikeouts than walks, and his career best ratio was 1.48 way back in 2000. His career average is 1.08. He’s not likely to sustain his current pace. As significantly, over the course of his career he has struck out about 15.5 percent of the time he has batted. This year he is at just 11.3 percent. He’s not likely to sustain that, either, and that will directly impact his average. Last year he struck out 14.6 percent of the time, and he had his best hitting year.

What it would take - He has played 60 games this year and has hit .419. He has missed six games. That means that there are 96 games left. Assuming he will miss games at the same rate for the rest of the year he will play 87 more games. In order to hit .400 on the year (or more specifically, .3995, because that’s all it takes), he would have to hit .386 down the stretch. That’s a big accomplishment for a guy who has never hit better than .337 on a year. Too big. Looking at it another way, he is averaging 3.7 at-bats per game, so he is on pace to finish with 544 at-bats. To hit .400 he would need 217 hits. He has never had more than 189. That many hits isn’t impossible, but he will likely need even more than that because his on-base percentage will fall. He will need to significantly beat his career best even to have a chance, and I can’t bet on that. For perspective, consider this - in 2004 IchiroSuzuki had 262 hits and he only hit .372. Jones has a long, long way to go.

History - There’s a reason that no one has hit .400 since 1941 - it’s really, really hard. It’s harder now than it was then because pitchers are more rested and bullpens are more specialized, so there are fewer soft spots for hitters to exploit. Jones is on a great pace, but others very good hitters have been above .400 in June or later and still not pulled it off - Todd Helton, Roberto Alomar, Wade Boggs, Paul O’Neill, Rod Carew, Tony Gwynn, Larry Walker, Nomar Garciaparra, John Olerud. If none of those guys have done it, it’s hard to believe that Jones can. For perspective on the difficulty of the task, look at George Brett in 1980. He was at .400 on September 19, but didn’t finish above the mythical mark. He only hit .304 in his last 13 games.The odds are stacked against Jones.

Health - So far this year Jones has missed a game or two five different times. The problem has twice been back spasms. The other three times it was a version of a right leg problem - a groin, and a strained and a slightly torn quad. None of those injuries have proven to be serious, but they all raise concerns. If his back is a problem he can’t swing properly. If his leg is a problem then he can’t run as well as he should be able to, and he won’t beat out the throws at first that he needs to to get his hits. He may stay completely healthy, but it’s hard to bet on that.

The MLB draft goes tomorrow. It used to be that a bettor could afford to ignore this event because it was going to be a while until the players were relevant. That’s no longer the case. The 2007 draft’s impact hasn’t yet been felt, but seven of the top ten players from 2006 are already in the pros, and a couple - Evan Longoria and Tim Lincecum- are well on their way to stardom. This year, again, there are several players who could step right into the lineup in a year or so and contribute. That means that getting familiar with them now will help you to take advantage of their appearances when they do show up. Here’s a quick look at the players who are likely to go at the top of the draft. We aren’t going to see nearly as many pitchers go in recent years. In fact, we might only see one go in the top ten.

Buster Posey, C, Florida State - You might recognize this guy as the one who recently played all nine positions in a game. You might also soon recognize him as the top pick in the draft. He might not have the biggest upside in the draft, but he is probably the closest to being ready. He has the potential to be an all-star for many years.Tampa bay is obviously pretty close to being the real deal, so they probably won’t want to draft someone they have to wait on.

Tim Beckham, SS, Griffin HS (Georgia) - If Posey doesn’t go first overall then Beckham likely will. He’s risky because he is young and a lot can change in the few years it will take him to make it. On the other hand, he has probably the biggest potential upside in the draft, and some team will take the risk. He probably won’t make it past Pittsburgh in the second spot, but will almost certainly be gone by the time Kansas City has picked third.

Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Vanderbilt - This is a clear sign that Vanderbilt is doing something right - Alvarez could go first and won’t go worse than third last year, and David Price went first overall last year. Alvarez has serious offensive upside, and he is versatile enough to move around the infield if need be.

Brian Matusz, LHP, University of San Diego - Matusz is potentially the only pitcher in the top ten. He had a complete game shutout in regional action last week, and he has been consistently impressive. I have him going to Baltimore fourth, but that could change.

Gordon Beckham, SS, University of Georgia - What are the chances of two shortstops from Georgia named Beckham who aren’t related landing in the top ten? Seems bizarre, but it will probably happen. He’s a remarkably good hitter for a shortstop, and he is competent enough in the field. His advantage is that he can make it through the minors and contribute to a team that needs the help. The buzz surrounding him and the Giants is huge, and they will soon need the next Omar Vizquel. The pieces fit.

Kyle Shipworth, C, Patriot High School (California) - This is the closest thing to a lock on the board. He’s not likely to go in the top five, and he almost certainly won’t get past the Marlins in sixth. They need serious catching help, and this guy has been tearing it up in high school. This guy could redefine power for the catcher position if he makes it.

Justin Smoak, 1B, South Carolina and Yonder Alonso, 1B, Miami - I put these two guys together because they are largely interchangeable. They are both first baseman with very heavy bats. The Reds, White Sox, Washington and Houston all need power in their system, so these two guys will likely go to some combination of those four teams from seven to ten. They could even go sooner.

Eric Hosmer, 1B, American Heritage HS (Florida) - The only difference between Hosmer and the previous two is that he is still in high school so he will likely take longer to come along. His talent is impressive, and he’ll also likely not make it out of the top ten.

Aaron Crow, RHP, Missouri - This is the other pitcher who could go in the top ten. Like Matusz he had a complete game shutout in regional play. There isn’t really a lot to differentiate him from the other pitcher, so it comes down to what teams prefer.

Brett Lawrie, 2B, Brookswood HS (B.C.) - As a Canadian I have to mention this kid. He has huge power. He hasn’t been getting a lot of first round talk, but he did a big tour to the Dominican and lit it up and the buzz is really strong that Cincinnati picking seventh has their eyes on him. He doesn’t really have a position - in a good way - so the Reds could pick him now and let him find his place in the minors.e

The Cubs are as hot as can be. They just capped off a seven game home stand with seven wins and now they head out to play easily winnable series against San Diego and the Dodgers. I’d like this team much better, though, if they could play on the road. They have the best record in baseball, and the best home record in baseball, but they are just 10-13 on the road. In their last three road trips they have gone 2-4, 2-4, and 2-3. I have faith that if anyone can turn that around it is Lou Piniella, but until he does I will have a real tough time buying into this team for the long haul. They were 41-40 last year on the road, so they do have the ability to be decent. The disparity between the two records in hurting bettors, too - they are the second most profitable home team behind the Red Sox, but they are significant betting losers on the road. If you want a plus side to it all, I suppose that their road struggles might keep their home prices a bit more reasonable.

Speaking of Chicago baseball, is there a more entertaining guy in all of baseball than White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen? His team lost three straight in Tampa bay, and he didn’t like it at all. He basically blew up his team, saying that general manager Kenny Williams had better make some changes by Tuesday or he’s going to do it himself by turning the lineup upside down nightly until he finds some much needed hits. He even went as far as to say that Williams could fire him if he thought it would create hits. Guillen is entertainingly ridiculous, but he’s right in this case - the team is in first place in a terrible division and they have the playoffs in the palm of their hand, but they just need to hit like they should be able to on paper.

I really like the Reds. Not this year, but soon. Jay Bruce is obviously a freak 13-for-22 is a pretty good way to start a major league career), and he’s joined by talented guys with long futures like Joey Votto, Ryan Freel, and Brandon Phillips. There is a lot to like on the pitching staff, too. Edinson Volquez is more than impressive, and Johhny Cueto had another strong start tonight. He’s young and inconsistent, but his stuff is nasty and when he figures it out he’ll be scary. Aaron Harang is underrated, too. They are a solid 19-10 at home, and, like so many teams in the league, they would be competitive if they could learn to play on the road. They finally have good management in place, and the future seems pretty darned bright.