Can Chipper Jones hit .400?
The thing every baseball fan seems to want to talk about right now is whether Chipper Jones can hit .400 on the year. He’s at .419 as of today, and he is hitting like a demon. Since I’m a baseball fan, and because we should see a prop on the issue pretty soon (there may already be one out there, but I haven’t seen it), I figured I would weigh in with my opinion and some analysis.
First, let’s cut to the chase. Is he going to do it? In a word, no. Absolutely not. Need more than that? Here are five of my reasons (I could come up with several more if I had to, but only one good reason in favor of him doing it - I want him to):
OBP - On-base percentage isn’t directly correlated to batting average, but it is pretty close. The real connection is this - You need to have a very good on-base percentage to hit .400. Right now Jones does - .504. The problem is that that is 63 points higher than his previous career best, and that was way back in 1999. We have no good reason to believe that his on-base percentage can stay as high as it is, so I find it hard to believe that the average will stay high.
Strikeouts to walks - Part of Jones’ success is that he has been walking quite a bit and not striking out much. The walks don’t help his average at all, but they do show that he is being patient, and that patience is needed to have a h uge average. Strikeouts are the oppsoite - they hurt your average and show you aren’t being patient. This year Jones has had 1.56 walks for every strikeout. That’s higher than he has ever had. Last year he had 1.09, and he hit .337. In 13 full years he has had four seasons in which he has had more strikeouts than walks, and his career best ratio was 1.48 way back in 2000. His career average is 1.08. He’s not likely to sustain his current pace. As significantly, over the course of his career he has struck out about 15.5 percent of the time he has batted. This year he is at just 11.3 percent. He’s not likely to sustain that, either, and that will directly impact his average. Last year he struck out 14.6 percent of the time, and he had his best hitting year.
What it would take - He has played 60 games this year and has hit .419. He has missed six games. That means that there are 96 games left. Assuming he will miss games at the same rate for the rest of the year he will play 87 more games. In order to hit .400 on the year (or more specifically, .3995, because that’s all it takes), he would have to hit .386 down the stretch. That’s a big accomplishment for a guy who has never hit better than .337 on a year. Too big. Looking at it another way, he is averaging 3.7 at-bats per game, so he is on pace to finish with 544 at-bats. To hit .400 he would need 217 hits. He has never had more than 189. That many hits isn’t impossible, but he will likely need even more than that because his on-base percentage will fall. He will need to significantly beat his career best even to have a chance, and I can’t bet on that. For perspective, consider this - in 2004 IchiroSuzuki had 262 hits and he only hit .372. Jones has a long, long way to go.
History - There’s a reason that no one has hit .400 since 1941 - it’s really, really hard. It’s harder now than it was then because pitchers are more rested and bullpens are more specialized, so there are fewer soft spots for hitters to exploit. Jones is on a great pace, but others very good hitters have been above .400 in June or later and still not pulled it off - Todd Helton, Roberto Alomar, Wade Boggs, Paul O’Neill, Rod Carew, Tony Gwynn, Larry Walker, Nomar Garciaparra, John Olerud. If none of those guys have done it, it’s hard to believe that Jones can. For perspective on the difficulty of the task, look at George Brett in 1980. He was at .400 on September 19, but didn’t finish above the mythical mark. He only hit .304 in his last 13 games.The odds are stacked against Jones.
Health - So far this year Jones has missed a game or two five different times. The problem has twice been back spasms. The other three times it was a version of a right leg problem - a groin, and a strained and a slightly torn quad. None of those injuries have proven to be serious, but they all raise concerns. If his back is a problem he can’t swing properly. If his leg is a problem then he can’t run as well as he should be able to, and he won’t beat out the throws at first that he needs to to get his hits. He may stay completely healthy, but it’s hard to bet on that.
Tags: .400, Chipper Jones
