Breeders’ Cup: Random Thoughts
Tomorrow we’ll do our weekly look ahead at the weekend football action. Thursday we’ll look at three of the more interesting races on the BC card, and on Friday we’ll take a look at the Classic. Today, though, I’ll look at eight different things that are catching my attention as the Breeders’ Cup draws near:
1. The post position draws happened today. There wasn’t a lot to notice - I think post position is, for the most part, grossly overrated. I don’t see any horses on the card that I used to like but don’t any more as a result of the draw.
2. Best price - Well Armed in the Dirt Mile was installed at 3/1 on the morning line. There is obviously no such thing as a lock, but this horse comes as close to one as there is on this card. If this price stays anywhere close to 3/1 I will be all over it.
3. Worst price - I love Zenyatta, and I really like her chances of winning the Distaff (I refuse to acknowledge the new name - way too lame), but there is no way a horse should ever be at 3/5 in a field this deep and talented.
4. The track - at the start of the meet the track was favoring horses coming from just off the pace. Last week it favored front runners. The lesson? We have no idea what the track is going to do. My advice? Ignore it completely.
5. Curlin is at 7/5 in the Classic. Just two others from among the 12 contenders are in single digit odds. My first reaction is that Curlin is underpriced. That being said, I become increasingly certain as time draws near that I will be incapable of betting on anyone other than the defending champ. There are a few horses that force me to lose all objectivity. This is one such horse.
6. Early weather forecasts are for hot, sunny weather. Unlike last year, the weather isn’t going to be a factor.
7. The Sprint is an absolute mess. There are nine horses in the field. Four of them are at 4/1 or less. Another is at 6/1. The best way to handicap this race is going to involve a dart board.
8. Least inspiring favorite - Munnings in the Juvenile. He’s at 7/2, but it is hard to believe he’ll be near there by post time. I’ll be surprised if Square Eddie isn’t favored by post time.
Tags: Breeders' Cup
