With the controversy that has surrounded this fight, a knockout victory seems essential for both fighters. They want to put to rest who is better here and now, and Pacquiao has every reason to believe he is a superior fighter, and Boxing Oddsmakers know it.
Betting Odds taken from Bodog:
Manny “Pac Man” Pacquiao (1/8) Vs. Juan Manuel Marquez (5/1)
Over/Under Rounds: 10.5
Manny Pacquiao by KO, TKO, or DQ (10/17)
Manny Pacquiao by Decision (39/20)
Juan Marquez by KO, TKO, or DQ (10/1)
Juan Marquez by Decision (12/1)
Marquez’ best chance is to use his counter punching style and utilize the things he does best. Marquez needs to make Pacquiao pay the price for inefficiency and missed punches nad attempt to control the pace of the fight. He will need to work his left hook with the power he is known to be able to, but Pacquiao’s chin weathers hits exceptionally well, so even if he does, it may not matter. His best chance, in terms of working away at Pacquiao may be to try to get in close and inside, but he also has to avoid staying inside for too long because Pacquiao will make him pay for that.
Pacquiao has to just be the aggressive and punishing fighter he is to win this fight. He’ll try to take care of business early, and his aggressivity will result in leading scorecards. He has to go body to body to get some solid blows in on Marquez and his ability to counter punch is second to no one. He’ll have to avoid letting Marquez land any real power blows, to avoid un untimely and unlikely knockout (10/1 odds).
A loss by Marquez tonight may signal his retirement at age 38. This fight is almost a last ditch efforts, in many respects. If he loses, no one will ever consider him much more than an average fighter when it is all said and done, but a loss to Pacquiao would be devestating and it would probably throw a serious wrench in the rest of his career, especially politically in his home country, though the merits of one’s fighting really shouldn’t play a role in such matters, in reality.
Pacquiao will likely take a longer winded approach tonight than just trying to knock out Marquez early. He realizes that if he waits, he’ll have good opportunities to push Marquez into poor positioning, where he will be susceptible to a lot of different and predictably effective attacks. Expect Pacquaio to knockout Marquez when it is said and done, possibly between rounds 6 and 8, though the over under is at 10.5, making the under a very attractive bet for bettors.
When it is all said and done, there is really no reason NOT to back the heavily favored Pacquiao. Like I said already, Marquez is doing his last ditch effort to resurrect a career that is clearly on its downside, while Pacquaio is at the peak of his fighting abilities and on a roll. He has already established his position among the greats at his weight class and is one of the best pound for pound fighters in a long time, as evidenced by the 1/8 odds.
Still, even at such heavy odds, a good sized bet on Pacquiao makes sense for a bettor. It’s difficult to imgaine Marquez having a legitimate shot at anything other than some weird knockout, which will not happen. Pacquaio’s chin, as mentioned, is strong, which will cancel out the biggest of Marquez’ blows, actually. Marquez can’t win this by decision because he is so outmatched as a fighter, so his only legit shot is knockout, and it isn’t legit at all. Back Pacquiao with the utmost confidence in this one.