In terms of the best teams in the Playoffs, this series is the true NBA Finals. Which ever team wins this series will likely win the NBA Championship. Many are predicting the Spurs to come out ahead, but which players will have a big series? Will Tim Duncan return to his glory days dominance on the big stage? Will Kevin Durant be able to continue his scoring exploits against a top tier defender like Kawhi Leonard? Let’s answer those questions and more in this prop bet analysis.
Tony Parker 18.5 ppg
Parker is averaging 19.2 points per game in the playoffs this year and has averaged 18.3 ppg vs OKC over his career. His season average was 18.3 ppg. I don’t see much betting value here.
Tony Parker 7.5 apg
OVER. Parker has 57 assists through the 8 Spurs playoff games this year, or 7.2 per game. Over the last three games he has averaged 6.6 apt, and has a high game of 11 assists in this year’s playoffs. He averaged 7.7 assists per game during the regular season. I’m going to go with the over because of the quicker pace in this series, though.
Tim Duncan 15.5 ppg
OVER. Tim Duncan upped his scoring in the Clippers series, and scored more than 15 points in all four games, totaling 26 in game one. For the series, he averaged 21 points per game. I think the over is pretty safe here.
Tim Duncan 9 rpg
Leaving this alone. He’s been inconsistent on the boards and I’m not sure how he will react to a bigger body like Kendrick Perkins boxing him out, or the leaping ability of Serge Ibaka. If you want to get risky, I like the under, just not enough to bet it myself.
Manu Ginobili 13 ppg
UNDER. He has had three games in the Playoffs this year in single figures (consecutively) and averaged only 11.3 points per game over the final three games of the Clippers series. I’m hesitant on this one, because Ginobili can get hot and have big games, but his recent performances haven’t been too hot.
Kevin Durant 27.5 ppg
UNDER. I know the Thunder need Durant to have a monster series, but I think Kawhi Leonard is about to prove himself as a very legit defender. I’m not saying Durant will struggle exactly, but I think 26.5 ppg is about right, which would bring us under the total set by NBA oddsmakers.
Russell Westbrook 23.5 ppg
OVER. Westbrook’s recent performances suggest he is just finding his footing in the Playoffs. He scored 37 in game 5 against the Lakers and 28 in game 6. He’s also only had one bad game in the Playoffs (15 pts, vs LAL, game 2).
Russell Westbrook 5 apg
UNDER. He has had 5 assists or more only once in the last four games and he has only had one good assist game throughout the entire playoffs (9 vs. LAL, game 1). He’s just not passing the rock.
James Harden 16 ppg
Going to leave this one alone. He’s averaged 14.2 over his career against the Spurs, and 16.8 per game this season. I don’t see much value in this one, really.
Serge Ibaka 3.5 bpg
This sounds about right too, at 3.5. He averaged 3.7 for the season and has averaged 4 per game over his last 4. Blocks can seem to be quite random at times, though, and I probably wouldn’t bet on a blocked shot bet unless it appeared to offer some very serious value.