Time: 8 PM EST, Saturday
Spread: NEB -1.5
M/L: NEB -125, MICH +105
The Wolverines have been about what people expected them to be, a very good football team, and a Big Ten Conference threat, but not the kind of team that can BCS contend, yet. Their defense has improved vastly, and Denard Robinson has been good. But Robinson hasn’t performed his best against the top shelf teams the Wolverines have faced, and thus they have suffered two losses this season to then No. 2 Alabama and then No. 11 Notre Dame, both opponents who have moved up in the rankings since beating the Wolverines.
Robinson has been great the last three weeks though, since the Notre Dame loss. With victories over Purdue, Illinois and Michigan State, Robinson and the Wolverines will take on Nebraska, as 1.5 point underdogs on the road in a Big Ten game of crucial significance for both teams. The game will air on ESPN2 at 8 PM EST.
Last week, Robinson took it to the air and threw for 163 yards to supplement his 96 rushing yards. The win over the Spartans was clinched on a late field goal, in a game in which neither team amassed many more than 300 yards total offense. Both teams had only 16 first downs in the low offense game.
Drew Dileo was the main target for Robinson’s passes, as he caught four for 92 yards to set up some scores for the Wolverines. He also held the four field goals, so his impact was far-reaching. Dileo and Robinson will take on a mediocre Nebraska defense this week, a team that they may be able to exploit. Nebraska has allowed 27.7 points per game and gave up 36 to UCLA and 63 to Ohio State. Nebraska may find themselves in trouble with Michigan’s high powered offensive attack.
Michigan’s defense has been tough, but will it be enough to stop Ameer Abdullah, who has seemingly done just about everything for the Cornhuskers so far? Abdullah has rushed for 615 yards on 105 carries, and has recorded seven TDs this season so far.
Abdullah rushed for 101 yards last week against Northwestern, and has rushed for 70 or more adds on four other occasions so far this season. His finest game came against Arkansas State, when he ran for 167 yards on 30 carries, scoring two TDs. Abdullah must be contained if the Wolverines are to upset this Nebraska team.
86.4 percent of money line bettors are predicting a Wolverine upset on Bookmaker, while conversely, 54.9 percent of bettors are picking Nebraska to cover the 1.5 point spread.
Michigan should be able to win this ATS and is a solid money line bet. Denard Robinson should have his way with the weak Cornhusker defense, while Abudullah will likely have his troubles with the Wolverines’ D. The o/u doesn’t seem to offer a lot of value, though 69 percent of bettors at Bookmaker as of time of issue (5 AM EST, Saturday) have chosen the OVER.
MICHIGAN BETTING TRENDS
Wolverines are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games after accumulating 170 yards or less passing previous game, 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 following an ATS loss, 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games vs teams with winning home records, 7-19-1 ATS vs teams with winning records, 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 road games.
NEBRASKA BETTING TRENDS
Cornhusers are 20-4-1 ATS in their last 25 home games vs teams with winning road records, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 at home, 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games after accumulating 450+ total yards, 1-6 ATS in their last 7 following an SU win, 0-5 ATS vs teams with winning records.
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