Big Ten College Football Saturday Picks: Maryland at Ohio State Buckeyes

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Maryland at (3) Ohio St.

Time: 11 AM CST

Spread: OSU -42.5

Total: 63

Odds c/o 5dimes

The Ohio State Buckeyes are undefeated again this season, but unlike last year’s campaign, it may actually result in a BCS playoff for the Buckeyes. It ranks No. 3 in AP polls currently, and the Buckeyes close its season with games at Rutgers, Penn State, and Michigan. With PSU ranked No. 5 and Michigan clocking in at No. 14, both will be tough, but vital games in making that playoff appearance.

This week will not be so much of that, with OSU listed as a 42.5-point favorite in Saturday college football odds as it hosts Maryland. The game will kick off at 11 AM (CST) on FOX, and its over-under is set at 63 points.

OSU

Ohio State has been downright dominant in a very typical fashion for the program. It rushes teams to death at a rate of 284.3 yards per game and amasses 48.3 points per game. Given that the defense barely allows one touchdown per game (7.9), and it is easy to see why Ohio State has rolled through its soft schedule as it always does.

Buckeyes quarterback Justin Fields has been good, even if the offense has been rush-heavy. He has thrown 68.8 percent for completion with 24 touchdowns and just one lone pick. His passer rating hovers over 185, and Fields has been a good rusher with his 319 yards on 76 attempts and team-tying best of nine touchdowns. Lead running back JK Dobbins has made short work of defense averaging nearly eight yards-per-carry, and he is tied with Fields in touchdowns this season. Master Teague III also averages 6.8 yards-per-carry on his 86 attempts, though he has “only” four touchdowns. Ohio State manages 6.2 yards-per-carry as a team and has tallied 23 total rushing touchdowns.

OSU has six receivers with 100 yards or better on the season, led by Chris Olave who has caught a team-best 28 receptions for 411 yards and eight touchdowns. Dobbins has caught 13 out of the backfield for 132 yards and two touchdowns. Ohio State has 10 receivers who have TD receptions, and its top-three all have three or better.

MD

Maryland is 3-6 this season but it is just 1-5 in Big Ten play. It has also dropped its last four. Last week it was pounced on by Michigan, falling 7-38. The previous three were not that close either, with a 26-point loss to Purdue and a 42-point loss to Minnesota. The Terrapins were within a touchdown of Indiana three weeks ago but still lost.

Maryland ranks a solid No. 50 nationally in rushing yards with 184.2 per game, and despite a lackluster passing offense (No. 98), the Terrapins have been a very good scoring team overall. Maryland averages 33.3 points per game while holding opponents just under that at 30.0. However, these stats are quite inflated considering the team was able to knock off Howard 79-0 in Week 1 and it also pulled a massive victory over then-ranked Syracuse team in Week 2, winning 63-20. Things came falling rapidly to earth after that for Maryland.

Maryland’s rushing attack is the work of three running backs: Javon Leake, Anthony McFarland Jr., and Tayon Fleet-Davis. All three have 200 yards or better, with Leake leading the way in yardage (581) and McFarland leading the team in attempts (90). The duo is tied for the team lead with seven touchdowns apiece.

ATS TRENDS (C/o Covers):

Maryland

  • Terrapins are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following a double-digit loss at home.
  • Terrapins are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
  • Terrapins are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS loss.
  • Terrapins are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 conference games.
  • Terrapins are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
  • Terrapins are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 road games.
  • Terrapins are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Terrapins are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in November.
  • Terrapins are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Ohio State

  • Buckeyes are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 conference games.
  • Buckeyes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.
  • Buckeyes are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win.
  • Buckeyes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Buckeyes are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games on fieldturf.
  • Buckeyes are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
  • Buckeyes are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
  • Buckeyes are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
  • Buckeyes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Buckeyes are 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Buckeyes are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up win.
  • Buckeyes are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
  • Buckeyes are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Buckeyes are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games in November.
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