Big 12 College Football Week Four: Kansas State Wildcats at Texas Longhorns
Kansas State Wildcats at Texas Longhorns
Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium – Austin, Texas
Saturday, September 21, 2013, 8:00 pm Eastern, TV: ABC or ESPN Game Plan
Opening Line: Texas -7
Current Line: Texas -5 1/2
Opening Total: 58
Current Total: 58
Opening Money Line: Texas -230 / Kansas State +190
Current Money Line: Texas -220 / Kansas State +185
To say that the 1-2 Texas Longhorns are reeling would be an understatement. Texas coach Mack Brown, who has been the Longhorns’ coach for 15 seasons and led them to a national championship is under fire after blowout losses at BYU and at home to Ole Miss last week. It doesn’t get any easier for Texas as they host the 2-1 Kansas State Wildcats in the Big 12 opener for both Saturday in Austin. Kansas State leads the series 8-5 overall against Texas including 3-1 in Austin since the Big 12 was formed in 1996. The Wildcats have beaten the Longhorns five straight times including 42-24 last season in Manhattan. That win clinched the Big 12 title for Kansas State.
Kansas St is coached by the legendary Bill Snyder. After a season opening upset loss to 2 time FCS champion North Dakota State to open the season, Kansas State has rebounded with blowout losses at home over UL-Lafayette 48-27 and last week over Massachusetts 37-7. The Wildcats are 1-2 ATS and the total is also 1-2. K-State was a 37.5 point favorite against UMass and the total was 56.
Kansas St scored on an early 38 yard pick six but the extra point was blocked. The Minutemen scored with 6 seconds left in the quarter to take a 7-6 lead at the end of the first. Kansas State would score 3 second quarter touchdowns to take control of the game 27-7 at halftime. The Wildcats would add 10 points in the second half to win by 30. K-State had 456 total yards including 329 rushing yards. The Wildcats held the Minutemen to 309 total yards. Each team had 2 turnovers.
Kansas State is outscoring teams 35.3-19.3 this season. The Wildcats are averaging 410.3 total yards per game including 173 rushing yards. On defense, K-State is allowing 353 yards per game, including 181.3 passing yards. The Wildcats are -2 in turnovers with 6 giveaways. Kansas State is 19/39 on third and fourth down conversions. The Wildcats have forced 6 sacks and allowed 4. Kansas St is 8/8 scoring in the red zone with 6 touchdowns.
Quarterback Jake waters has completed 68.6% of his passes for 673 yards with 4 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, along with 24 carries for 88 yards and a touchdown. Back-up Daniel Sams takes a few snaps a game, but is more dangerous with his legs. He has 21 carries for 157 yards and 3 touchdowns. Running back John Hubert has 46 carries, 197 yards and 2 touchdowns, along with 6 catches, 93 yards and a touchdown. Receiver Tyler Lockett has 16 catches, 232 yards and a touchdown. Tramaine Thompson has 10 catches, 167 yards and a touchdown. Curry Sexton has 11 catches for 87 yards.
After crushing New Mexico St 56-7 at home, Texas went to Provo to face BYU. The Lonhorns lost that game 40-21 giving up 550 rushing yards in the process. Last week, Texas returned home to face Ole Miss. The Longhorns were 2.5 point favorites against the Rebels and the total was 63. Texas would lose 44-23. Texas is 1-2 ATS and the total is 3-0.
Ole Miss took an early 14-0 lead but Texas would score 23 unanswered points to go up 23-14. The Longhorns kicked 3 field goals during the scoring run. The Rebels kicked a field goal as time expired for halftime to make it 23-17 going into the locker room. Texas would not score again, and Ole Miss scored 27 points in the second half to win by 21 points. Texas had 320 total yards and 20 first downs. The Rebels had 449 total yards including 272 rushing yards. there were 15 combined penalties and each team had a turnover.
Texas is outscoring teams 33.3-30.3 this season The Longhorns are averaging 493.3 yards per game on offense, including 205 rushing yards. On defense Texas is allowing 491.3 yards per game including 308.7 rushing yards. Texas is #116 in total offense and #123 against the run out of 125 teams. The Longhorns are +2 in turnovers with 6 takeaways. Texas is 16/50 on third and fourth down conversions, and 6 for 7 scoring in the red zone with 4 touchdowns. Texas has allowed 5 sacks, and are averaging 43 penalty yards per game. Longhorn opponents are averaging 55 penalty yards per game.
Quarterback David Ash has completed 62.9% of his passes for 594 yards with 6 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, along with 24 carries, 125 yards and a touchdown. He left the BYU game in the fourth quarter with head and shoulder injuries. Ashe missed the Ole Miss game and is listed as questionable against Kansas St Back-up Case McCoy will likely get the start if Ashe can’t go. He threw for 271 yards and a touchdown against Ole Miss, Longhorn fans have been clamoring for Texas to start talented freshman Tyrone Swoopes in place of the inconsistent McCoy. Running back Johnathan Gray has 38 carries, 209 yards and a touchdown, and also has 6 catches. Joe Bergeron has 19 carries, 104 yards and a touchdown. Jalen Overstreet has 10 carries, 89 yards and 2 touchdowns. Running back Daje Johnson who is not only a great back, but is a great receiver as well is out with an ankle injury. Receiver Mike Davis has 20 catches, 223 yards and 4 scores. He is questionable with an ankle injury. Receiver Jaxon Shipley has 19 catches for 228 yards. Two linebackers and two offensive linemen are listed as questionable for the Longhorns as well.
Kansas St is 5-1 ATS after failing to cover, 8-2-1 in road games, 24-7-1 in Big 12 games, 15-5 after gaining 450 yards or more, 6-2 in September, 8-3-1 after allowing less than 20 points, 19-8-1 overall, 16-7 on fieldturf, 9-4-1 after passing for 170 yards or less, and 42-20-1 after a straight up win of 20 points or more. The underdog is 7-1 ATS in this series recently. The Wildcats have covered the last six meetings against Texas, including 4-0 in Austin.
Texas is 9-2 ATS after a double digit home loss, 3-7 on fieldturf, 2-5 after failing to cover, and after allowing 40 points or more, 2-6 in Big 12 games, 1-4 after a straight up loss, and 1-5 after allowing 200 rushing yards or more. The over is 4-1 in this series recently.
The Longhorn defense is in shambles right now, and I don’t see Texas being able to much on offense either if Ash, Davis and Johnson all miss the Kansas State game. There is no way Texas should have been a touchdown favorite and bettors quickly moved it to -5 1/2. A field goal is more reasonable, but I think Kansas State wins straight up. You can take the points or take the Wildcats on the money line if you are feeling really frisky.
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