Big 12 College Football Betting Week Eight: #16 Texas Tech Red Raiders at West Virginia Mountaineers
#16 Texas Tech Red Raiders at West Virginia Mountaineers
Milan Puskar Stadium – Morgantown, West Virginia
Saturday, October 19, 2013, 12:00 pm Eastern, TV: Fox Sports 1
Opening Line: Texas Tech -9 1/2
Current Line: Texas Tech -5
Opening Total: 56 1/2
Current Total: 57 1/2
Opening Money Line: Texas Tech -220 / West Virginia +185
Current Money Line: Texas Tech -205 / West Virginia +180
The 6-0 Texas Tech Red Raiders make the roughly 1,500 mile trip to Morgantown for a conference game to face the 3-3 West Virginia Mountaineers Saturday. The Red Raiders are 3-0 in the Big 12 and tied with Texas for the conference lead. Both schools are a half game ahead of Baylor at 2-0. West Virginia is 1-2 in the Big 12. This is only the third ever meeting between Texas Tech and West Virginia with each team winning once. The Red Raiders won last year in Lubbock 49-14 and are making their first ever trip to Morgantown. The Mountaineers won the only previous meeting before last year in the 1937 Sun Bowl.
Texas Tech is coached by Kliff Kingsbury, a former quarterback at the school. The Red Raiders have home wins over Stephen F. Austin 61-13, TCU 20-10, Texas State 33-7, and last week against Iowa State 42-35. Texas Tech has road wins at SMU 41-23 and at Kansas 54-16. The Red Raiders are 4-2 ATS and the total is also 4-2 this season. Texas Tech failed to cover the 14 point spread against Iowa State and the game went way over the 58 point total.
Iowa State and Texas Tech traded touchdowns in the first half and it was 21-21 at the half. The Red Raiders took a 35-21 lead early in the fourth quarter. However, they could never expand the lead as the teams traded touchdowns again in the fourth. Iowa state scored a late touchdown to make it 42-35 and get inside the spread. The Cyclones had 311 total yards including 168 passing yards. The Red Raiders had 666 total yards including 415 passing and 251 rushing yards. Texas Tech overcame 3 turnovers and Iowa State had none. The Cyclones scored on a 95 yard kickoff return for a touchdown in the first quarter.
Texas Tech is outscoring teams 42-17 this season. The Red Raiders are #13 nationally in scoring and #16 in points allowed. On offense, Texas Tech is averaging 544 yards per game including 408.8 passing and 135.2 rushing yards. The Red Raiders are #6 in total offense nationally and #3 in passing, but #98 out of 125 teams in rushing. On defense, Texas Tech is allowing 345.2 yards per game including 231.7 passing and 113.5 rushing yards. The Red Raiders are #23 in total defense and #17 against the rush. Texas Tech is -3 in turnovers with 14 giveaways and 11 takeaways. The Red Raiders average 74 penalty yards per game and opponents average 72. Texas Tech is 52/110 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 33/119. The Red Raiders have forced 16 sacks and allowed 12 this season. Texas Tech is 31/35 scoring in the red zone with 19 touchdowns and opponents are 10/15 with six touchdowns. The Red Raiders have one defensive touchdown this season and have allowed one kick return for a touchdown.
Texas Tech quarterback Baker Mayfield is a walk-on true freshman. He has been doing great this season, but injured his knee in the Kansas game. The injury isn’t season ending but he missed the Iowa State game. He is questionable this week. If Mayfield can’t go it will either be another true freshman Davis Webb or projected pre-season starter Michael Brewer who missed the first month of the season with a back injury. (Apparently, in order to be a quarterback for Texas Tech you have to have a name that sounds like a PGA golfer.) Mayfield has completed 65.7% of his passes for 1,488 yards with 8 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, along with 45 carries, 119 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns. Webb has completed 56.3% of his passes for 965 yards with 9 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. Brewer has yet to throw a pass this season, but played a few snaps in garbage time of the Kansas blowout.
Running back DeAndre Washington has 53 carries, 207 yards and 4 touchdowns, along with 14 catches for 100 yards. Kenny Williams has 58 carries 198 yards and 4 touchdowns, along with 11 catches for 112 yards and a touchdown grab. Quentin White has 13 carries for 130 yards and a touchdown. Sadale Foster has 13 carries for 123 yards with a touchdown, along with 11 catches for 117 yards. Tight end Jace Amaro has 47 catches, 606 yards and a touchdown. Receiver Eric Ward has 34 catches, 404 yards and 4 touchdowns. Jakeem Grant has 30 catches, 394 yards and 3 touchdowns. Bradley Marquez has 25 catches, 342 yards and 5 touchdowns. Reginald Davis has 4 catches, 79 yards and 2 touchdowns.
West Virginia is coached by Dana Holgerson. The Mountaineers have home wins over William and Mary 24-17, Georgia State 41-7, and Oklahoma State 30-21, along with road losses at Oklahoma 16-7, Maryland 37-0 (in Baltimore), and two weeks ago at Baylor 73-42. The Mountaineers have alternated wins and losses this season. West Virginia is 2-5 ATS and the total is 1-5 this season. The Mountaineers were 30 point underdogs at Baylor and the total was 68.5.
Baylor took a 56-14 at halftime against West Virginia. The Bears would expand the lead to 66-21 in the third quarter. West Virginia outscored Baylor 21-7 in the fourth quarter but it was far too late. Despite the run, the Mountaineers were unable to get inside the 30 point spread. Baylor only had 872 total yards and 38 first downs, including 396 passing and 476 rushing yards. West Virginia had 394 total yards including 276 passing yards. The rout could have even been worse had Baylor not turned the ball over 4 times including a pick six late in the fourth and racked up 10 penalties for 100 yards. West Virginia had 7 penalties for 76 yards and one turnover.
West Virginia is being outscored 29-24 this season. WVU is #92 nationally in scoring and #81 in points allowed, out of 125 teams. The Mountaineers are averaging 393.7 yards per game on offense, including 245.3 passing and 148.3 rushing yards. On defense, West Virginia is allowing 433.7 total yards per game, including 223 passing and 210.7 rushing yards. The Mountaineers are #94 in total defense and #108 against the rush nationally. West Virginia is even in turnovers with 15 takeaways and giveaways. The Mountaineers are averaging 56 penalty yards per game, and opponents are averaging 60. WVU is 29/98 on third and fourth down conversions, and opponents are 41/101. West Virginia has allowed 12 sacks and forced 9 this season. The Mountaineers are 11/15 scoring in the red zone with 7 touchdowns, and opponents are 19/23 with 13 touchdowns. West Virginia has 3 defensive touchdowns and has allowed 1 this season.
West Virginia quarterback Paul Millard started the first two games but was largely ineffective. He was benched in favor of freshman Ford Childress for the next two games. He has completed 57.1% of his passes for 421 yards with 3 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. He struggled against Maryland throwing for only 62 yards and 2 interceptions. Childress injured his pectoral muscle and is out indefinitely. Florida State transfer Clint Trickett has started the last two games including the upset over previously undefeated Oklahoma State. Trickett has thrown for 470 yards with 2 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. Millard took a few snaps in the blowout loss at Baylor. Millard has thrown for 581 yards with 3 touchdowns and an interception.
Running back Charles Sims has 97 carries, 480 yards and 4 touchdowns, along with 19 catches for 179 yards. Dreamius Smith has 57 carries, 282 yards and 2 touchdowns. Wendell Smallwood has 19 carries, 140 yards and a touchdown, along with 3 catches for 30 yards. Receiver Ronald Carswell has 16 catches, 330 yards and 2 touchdowns. Kevin White has 17 catches, 244 yards and 3 touchdowns. Daikiel Shorts has 19 catches, 218 yards and 2 touchdowns. Ivan McCartney has 8 catches, 120 yards and a touchdown. K.J. Myers, Devonte Mathis, and Mario Alford will also get significant catches. Six Mountaineer defensive players are listed on the injury report including 3 linebackers.
Texas tech is 4-1 ATS after rushing for more than 200 yards, 5-2 in road games and after allowing 170 passing yards or less, 2-6 in Big 12 games, 1-5 after failing to cover, and after gaining more than 450 total yards.
West Virginia is 5-1 ATS in Big 12 games, 9-4-1 after allowing 40 points or more, 3-7-1 after allowing 280 passing yards or more, 2-5 after scoring more than 40 points and overall, 4-13 against teams with winning road records, 1-4 on fieldturf, and 0-4 after a bye week.
West Virginia is undefeated at home, but that could easily change this week against the #16 Red Raiders. Although West Virginia shut down the then #11 ranked Oklahoma State Cowboys’ high powered offense. However, the Mountaineers were then drilled by Baylor the next week. I think Texas Tech wins but West Virginia keep it close in front of the frenzied home crowd.
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