Big 12 CFB Betting Picks: TCU Horned Frogs at #11 Oklahoma Sooners
Texas Christian Horned Frogs at #11 Oklahoma Sooners
Oklahoma Memorial Stadium – Norman, Oklahoma
Saturday, October 5, 2013, 7:00 pm Eastern, TV: Fox
Opening Line: Oklahoma -10
Current Line: Oklahoma -9
Opening Total: 48
Current Total: 46 1/2
Opening Money Line: Oklahoma -360 / TCU +295
Current Money Line: Oklahoma -360 / TCU +295
The 4-0 Oklahoma Sooners ranked #11 in the country as they host the 2-2 Texas Christian Horned Frogs. This is the 13th meeting between the schools, and Oklahoma leads the series 8-4. The Sooners won last season in Fort Worth 24-17 in TCU’s first year in the Big 12.
TCU is coached by Gary Patterson. The Horned Frogs opened the season with a loss to LSU 37-27 in Arlington, Texas. TCU also has a loss at Texas Tech 20-10, The Horned Frogs have home wins over SE Louisiana 38-17 and metroplex rival SMU last week 48-17. TCU is 1-3 ATS and the total is 3-1 this season. The Horned Frogs easily covered the 17 point spread against SMU and nearly went over the 49 point total by themselves.
TCU was down 10-7 at halftime to SMU, but the Horned frogs scored 27 unanswered points in the second half to take a 34-10 lead. SMU pulled to within 34-17 with 3 minutes left but TCU scored on a kickoff return and an interception return, both for touchdowns to win 48-17. TCU had 335 total yards including 228 passing yards. SMU had 292 total yards including just 16 rushing yards. The Mustangs had 5 turnovers and the Frogs had 2 of their own.
TCU is outscoring teams 31-23 this season. The Horned Frogs are #100 in total offense out of 125 teams averaging just 349.2 yards per game including 200 passing yards and 149.2 rushing yards. On defense, TCU is allowing 353.8 yards per game including 238 passing and 115.8 rushing yards. The Horned Frogs are +6 in turnovers with 12 takeaways. TCU averages 68 penalty yards per game and opponents are averaging 52. Texas Christian is 20/61 on third and fourth down conversions, and opponents are 32/71. The Frogs have forced 15 sacks and allowed 6 this season. TCU is 13/14 scoring in the red zone with 9 touchdowns, and opponents are 13/13 with 7 touchdowns. The Horned Frogs have 2 kickoff returns for touchdowns and a pick six.
TCU quarterback Casey Pachall broke his arm earlier in the season and is out until at least mid-November. Trevone Boykin took over as the starter once Pachall was injured. Boykin has completed 60.9% of his passes for 625 yards with 4 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, along with 47 carries for 158 yards. Running back B.J. Catalon has 37 carries, 214 yards and 4 touchdowns, along with 5 catches and a kick return for a touchdown. Waymon James has 35 carries, 177 yards and 3 touchdowns, along with 2 catches. Receiver Brandon Carter has 13 catches for 156 yards. Josh Doctson, Cam White, Deanta’ Gray, and LaDarius Brown will also get significant targets. Brown has a kick return for a touchdown.
Oklahoma is coached by Bob Stoops. The Sooners have home wins over Louisiana-Monroe 34-0, West Virginia 16-7, and Tulsa 51-20, along with a road win at Notre Dame last week 35-21. Oklahoma is 3-1 ATS and the total is 2-2 this season. The Sooners were 3.5 point favorites at Notre Dame and the total was 50.
Oklahoma jumped out to an early 14-0 lead against Notre Dame and the Sooners would never trail. Every time Notre Dame would pull within 6 or 7 points, Oklahoma would have an answer. The Sooners would hold on for the 14 point win to beat Notre Dame for only the second time ever. Oklahoma had 450 total yards including 212 rushing yards. Notre Dame had 324 total yards including 220 rushing yards. Notre Dame had 3 turnovers including a pick six along with 8 penalties for 77 yards.
Oklahoma is outscoring teams 34-12 this season. The Sooners are #6 in points allowed nationally. Oklahoma is averaging 480.2 yards per game on offense including 223.5 passing and 256.8 rushing yards. The Sooners are #17 nationally in rushing. On defense, Oklahoma is allowing 299.5 total yards per game including 169 passing and 130.5 rushing yards. The Sooners are 317 in total defense and #15 in pass defense. OU is +4 in turnovers with 9 takeaways. The Sooners average 45 penalty yards per game, as do their opponents. Oklahoma is 29/65 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 17/60. The Sooners have forced 4 sacks and allowed 4 as well. Oklahoma is 18/21 scoring in the red zone with 10 touchdowns, and opponents are 5/7 with 3 touchdowns. Oklahoma has outscored teams 47-0 this season in the second quarter.
Oklahoma quarterback Blake Bell took over as the starter for the Tulsa and Notre Dame games from Trevor Knight. Knight suffered a minor knee injury and was supposed to be out for a couple of weeks but Bell has been so effective that he will remain the starter. Knight did play a few series last week against Notre Dame when Bell had to go to the locker room to get fluids for cramping. Bell has completed 71.2% of his passes for 683 yards with 6 touchdowns and no picks, along with 26 carries for 114 yards. Knight has thrown for 211 yards with 4 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, along with 22 carries for 169 yards. Running back Brennan Clay has 59 carries, 339 yards and 2 touchdowns, along with 2 catches. Damien Williams has 46 catches, 203 yards and a touchdown, along with 4 catches for 41 yards. Receiver Sterling Shepard has 16 catches, 229 yards and 3 touchdowns. Jalen Saunders has 17 catches, 183 yards and 3 touchdowns.
TCU is 3-8 ATS in Big 12 games, 1-4 after allowing less than 100 rushing yards, against teams with winning records and in October, 3-13 after scoring more than 40 points, 3-14 after a cover, 1-5 overall, 1-6 on grass, 0-6 after a straight up win, 0-4 after a win by 20 points or more, and 0-5 after allowing less than 20 points.
Oklahoma is 8-2 ATS after allowing more than 200 rushing yards, 4-1 in October and on grass, 22-10 after rushing for more than 200 yards, 2-5 at home, 1-4 in Big 12 games, and after a cover.
Oklahoma is clearly the better team here but this has sandwich game written all over it, as Oklahoma played at Notre Dame last week and travels to Dallas to face rival Texas next week. Still, 9 points is a bargain. The Sooners probably should be at least a 2 touchdown favorite at home especially since TCU struggles on offense sometimes. I like Oklahoma to cover at home and the game to go over.
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