Big 12 Betting Preview: Oklahoma Sooners at Texas Tech Red Raiders

#14 Oklahoma Sooners at #24 Texas Tech Red Raiders
Saturday, October 6, 2012, 3:30 pm Eastern, TV: ABC or ESPN2
Jones AT&T Stadium – Lubbock, Texas
Opening Line: Oklahoma -7
Current Line: Oklahoma -4 1/2
Opening Total: 58 1/2
Current Total: 57
Opening Money Line: Oklahoma -205 / Texas Tech +175
Current Money Line: Oklahoma -195 / Texas Tech +165

Oklahoma looks to rebound from a loss at to Kansas St to open Big 12 play two weeks ago. The Sooners are 4.5 point favorite at Texas Tech Saturday.

Something has to give when the #24 Texas Tech Red Raiders host the #14 Oklahoma Sooners Saturday in Big 12 action. The Sooners, coming off a 24-19 upset at home two weeks ago by Kansas St, haven’t lost consecutive games since 2003. However, the last time Oklahoma won in Lubbuck against Texas Tech was also in 2003. This is the 20th meeting between the schools, and Oklahoma leads the series 13-6. The series is tied at 4 games apiece in Lubbock. The Red Raiders won last year’s contest 41-38 to snap Oklahoma’s 39 game home winning streak.

Oklahoma is coached by Bob Stoops. The Sooners are 2-1 this season. Oklahoma has already had their two byes for the year in the first 5 weeks of the season. The Sooners opened with non-conference wins at UTEP 24-7 and at home against Florida A&M 69-13. Then came the upset loss to then #15 Kansas st to open Big 12 play. The Sooners are 1-2 ATS and the total is 0-2 this season. Oklahoma was a 15.5 point favorite at home against the Wildcats and the total was 56.5. Kansas St took a 10-6 halftime lead on a one yard fumble recovery for a touchdown in the second quarter. It was one of three costly turnovers for the Sooners while the Wildcats had none. Oklahoma scored late in the third to take a 13-10 lead. K_State then scored 14 unanswered points to take a 24-13 lead. Oklahoma scored with 4:09 left, but missed the two point conversion to make it 24-19. The Sooners kicked off deep, but couldn’t get the ball back as the Wildcats ran out the clock. It was the first time Oklahoma lost their Big 12 opener under Stoops. The Sooners have never lost back-to-back conference games in the Stoops era.

Oklahoma is averaging 491.7 yards per game on offense, including 277.7 passing yards and 214 rushing yards. The Sooners are outscoring teams 37.3-14.7 this season. Despite being in the top 35 nationally in all offensive categories, many feel the Sooners are struggling on offense, mainly becuase they are usually in the top 10 nationally. The Sooners are -4 in turnovers, this season. They have forced only one turnover this season. The Sooners are 17/37 on third and fourth down conversions, and 14/15 scoring in the red zone including 12 touchdowns. Oklahoma has allowed 8 sacks this season. On defense, Oklahoma is allowing 284 total yards, including 123.7 passing yards and 160.3 rushing yards. The Sooners are #13 in total defense, #2 against the pass, and #20 in scoring defense. Oklahoma has struggled to stop the run, but they have also played teams that have a heavy run to pass ratio. The Sooners have made 7 sacks this season. Oklahoma opponents are 3/4 scoring in the red zone with 2 touchdowns, and 14/49 on third and fourth down converions.

Quarterback Landry Jones could have gone to the NFL this season, but returned for his senior season. While Jones hasn’t been terrible this year, he hasn’t lived up to the immense pre-season hype in which some thought he could contend for the Heisman Trophy. Jones has completed 68 of 107 passes (63.6%) for 773 yards with 5 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. He has been sacked 6 times this season. Back-up Blake Bell had 13 rushing touchdowns last year, but has only 10 carries for 3 yards and one touchdown this season. Running back Damien Williams has 30 carries, 293 yards, and 5 touchdowns. along with 2 catches for 20 yards. Dominique Whaley has 30 carries, 168 yards, and a touchdown. Brennan Clay has 16 carries, 103 yards and 2 touchdowns, along with 3 catches for 35 yards. Receiver Kenny Stills has 22 catches 301 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Sterling Shepard, Justin Brown, and Trey Metoyer also get significant catches. Six Sooners are out indefinitely or for the season, including 4 defensive players.

Texas Tech is 4-0 this season under coach Tommy Tuberville. Aside from the Big 12 opener last week at Iowa St, the Red Raiders have played a very soft schedule so far. Tech has blowout wins at home against Northwestern St 44-6, and New Mexico 49-14, along with road wins at Texas St 58-10 and Iowa St 24-13. The Red Raiders are 4-0 ATS and the total is 1-2 this season. Texas Tech was a one point favorite in the Iowa St game and the total was 63.5. Iowa St had an 87 yard pick six late in the first quarter to open the scoring. Texas Tech tied it up in the second to make it   7-7 at halftime. Iowa St took a 13-7 lead late in the third but missed the extra point. Texas Tech would go on to score 17 unanswered points to win the game 24-13, icing the game with a 39 yard field goal with just over 2 minutes to go. Iowa St had 189 total yards including 73 passing yards, and 13 first downs. The Cyclones also turned the ball over 4 times. Texas Tech had 395 total yards, including 332 passing yards. Red Raider quarterback Seth Doege threw for 331 yards with 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions.

Texas Tech is averaging 547 yards per game on offense, including 358.8 passing yards and 188.2 rushing yards. The Red Raiders are #8 in total defense and #7 passing. Tech is outscoring opponents 43.8-10.8 this season. The Red Raiders are #11 in scoring offense and #5 in scoring defense. Texas Tech has forced 6 turnovers, and has 6 turnovers of their own. Texas tech is averaging 76 penalty yards per game. The Red Raiders are 34/60 on third and fourth down converions, and 21/24 scoring in the red zone with 17 touchdowns. Tech has given up 5 sacks this season. It isn’t surprising to see the Red Raiders have a top ten offense, but most fans are shocked at how well Tech is doing on defense so far. The Red Raiders are #1 in total defense nationally allowing just 167.5 yards per game, including the #1 pass defense giving up a paltry 82 yards, and 85.5 rushing yards per game (#13 nationally. Red Raider opponents are 19/59 on third and fourth down conversions, and 3/3 scoring in the red zone with 2 touchdowns. Texas Tech has forced 9 sacks this season.

Doege has completed 105/147 passes (71.4%) for 1,189 yards with 15 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. He has been sacked 3 times. Running back Kenny Williams has 49 carries, 321 yards, and a touchdown, along with 5 catches, 32 yards, and a touchdown. Eric Stephens, Jr. has 39 carries, 253 yards, and 3 touchdowns. SaDale Foster has 34 carries, for 165 yards. Six Texas Tech receivers have at least 12 catches and 129 yards. Eric Ward has 17 catches, 238 yards, and 4 touchdowns, Javon Bell, Jace Amaro, Bradley Marquez, Darrin Moore, and Jakeem Grant will all get significant catches. Amaro has 3 TD catches, and Moore has 4. Texas Tech has a ton of depth at receiver, but that will be tested since three reserves are questionable this week.

Oklahoma is 4-0 ATS after allowing 200 yards, 6-0 after scoring less than 20 points, 4-1 after rushing for less than 100 yards, 6-2 after allowing less than 160 passing yards, 20-7 after a straight up loss, 11-4 after failing to cover, 2-5 overall, 1-4 against teams with winning records, and in road games, and 0-4 in Big 12 games. The under is 4-1 in the last 5 in this series played in Lubbock.

Texas Tech is 4-0 after passing for 280 yards or more, and overall, 7-1 after allowing 275 total yards or less, 5-1 after a straight up win, 4-1 on field turf and after 20 points or less, 12-4 after allowing 170 passing yards or less, and 0-6 at home against teams with winning road records. The home team has covered 5 of the last 6 in  this series.

Though both secondaries have improved immensly from last year, neither has faced an offens as potent as the one they will face Saturday. Although Lubbock has been a  hous of horrors for the Sooners recently, I think OU wins a clse shootout with a ton of points scored by both sides.

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