Big 12 Betting Picks: #23 Texas Tech Red Raiders at #24 Oklahoma St Cowboys
#23 Texas Tech Red Raiders at #24 Oklahoma St Cowboys
Saturday, November 17, 2012, 3:30 pm Eastern, TV: FSN
Boone Pickens Stadium – Stillwater, Oklahoma
Opening Line: OSU -10 1/2
Current Line: OSU -9 1/2
Opening Total: 72
Current Total: 73
Opening Money Line: OSU -385 / TTU +325
Current Money Line: OSU -360 / TTU +300
The 7-3 Texas Tech Red Raiders and 6-3 Oklahoma St Cowboys meet for the 40th time in Stillwater Saturday. Texas Tech leads the series 21-15-3, but Oklahoma St is 9-8 in Stillwater. The Cowboys have won 3 straight games in the series including a 66-6 thrashing in Lubbock last year. Both of these teams are bowl eligible already but are trying to solidify their positions in better bowls.
Texas Tech is 4-3 in the Big 12 under coach Tommy Tuberville. The losses for Texas Tech came at home to Oklahoma 41-20 and Texas 31-22, and at Kansas St 55-24. The Red Raiders have home wins over Northwestern St 44-6, New Mexico 49-14, West Virginia 49-14 and last week against Kansas 41-34 in overtime. Texas Tech has road wins over Texas St 58-10, Iowa St 24-13, and at TCU 56-53 in triple overtime. The Red Raiders are 6-4 ATS and the total is 5-4. Texas Tech was 24.5 point favorite against Kansas and the total was 55.
Texas Tech is averaging 506.7 yards per game on offense, including 370 passing yards and 136.7 rushing yards. The Red Raiders are #10 in total offense and #1 in passing. Tech is outscoring opponents 39-27 this season. The Red Raiders are #18 in points scored nationally. Texas Tech is -5 in turnovers with 15 giveaways. Texas Tech is averaging 71 penalty yards per game. The Red Raiders are 75/148 on third and fourth down conversions, and 47/53 scoring in the red zone with 36 touchdowns. Tech has given up 15 sacks this season. It isn’t surprising to see the Red Raiders have a top ten offense, but most fans are shocked at how well Tech is doing on defense so far. The Red Raiders are #18 in total defense nationally allowing just 324.6 yards per game, including the #10 pass defense giving up 172 yards, and 152.6 rushing yards. Texas Tech opponents are 60/158 on third and fourth down conversions, and 33/36 scoring in the red zone with 22 touchdowns. Texas Tech has forced 14 sacks and 10 turnovers this season.
Texas Tech quarterback Seth Doege has completed 295/420 passes (70.2%) for 3,345 yards with 34 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. He has been sacked 13 times. Running back Kenny Williams has 110 carries, 612 yards, and 4 touchdowns, along with 13 catches, 124 yards, and a touchdown. Eric Stephens, Jr. has 74 carries, 371 yards, and 4 touchdowns, along with 15 catches for 71 yards and a touchdown. SaDale Foster has 75 carries, for 373 yards and 3 touchdowns, along with 14 catches for 79 yards. Ten Texas Tech receivers have at least 13 catches and 124 yards. Receiver Eric Ward has 61 catches, 823 yards, and 10 touchdowns. Darrin Moore has 59 catches, 622 yards and 10 touchdowns. Tight end Jace Amaro has 23 catches, 394 yards, and 4 touchdowns. He is questionable with a chest injury and has missed the last 3 games. Tyson Williams, Jakeem Grant, Alex Torres, Austin Zouzalik, and Marcus Kennard all get significant catches as well. Bradley Marquez and Javon Bell are out for the season along with two other little used receivers. Texas Tech has a ton of depth at receiver, but that will be tested with so many injuries. The defense is also battling injuries with 6 players listed on the injury report including 4 defensive backs.
Oklahoma St is 4-2 in the Big 12, coached by Mike Gundy. The Cowboys have losses at Arizona 59-38 and Kansas St 44-30 and at home against Texas 41-36. OSU has home wins over Savannah St 84-0, Louisiana-Lafayette 65-24, Iowa St 31-10, TCU 36-14 and last week against West Virginia 55-34. The Cowboys also have a 20-14 road win at Kansas. The Cowboys are 4-4 ATS and the total is 5-3 this season. OSU was a 10.5 point favorite against West Virginia and the total was 74.5.
Oklahoma St is averaging 561.1 yards per game on offense, including 348.8 passing yards and 212.3 rushing yards. The Cowboys are outscoring teams 44-27 this season. OSU is #4 in total offense, and in the top 5 nationally in passing and scoring. The Cowboys are -8 in turnovers with 19 giveaways. OSU is averaging 66 penalty yards per game and has allowed 6 sacks. The Cowboys are 65/139 on third and fourth down conversions, and 46/50 scoring in the red zone with 31 touchdowns. Oklahoma St is allowing 388.8 yards per game on defense, including 259.6 passing yards and 129.2 rushing yards. The Cowboys have forced 18 sacks this season and 11 turnovers. OSU opponents are 59/170 on third and fourth down conversions, and 26/33 scoring in the red zone with 19 touchdowns.
Oklahoma St quarterback J.W. Walsh is out for the season with a knee injury. He passed for 1,467 yards with 10 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, and also rushed for 254 yards and 3 touchdowns. Wes Lunt started the first three games of the season but missed a few games with a knee injury. He was injured in the Kansas St game and Clint Chelf came in and did well. Chelf started last week against West Virginia, but Lunt was recovering from a concussion. Lunt is probable against Texas Tech. Gundy hasn’t announced his starter yet, but both could see action. Lunt is 80/128 passing (63.9%) for 1,096 yards with 6 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. Chelf is 42/66 passing (63.6%) for 576 yards with 6 touchdowns and 3 interceptions.
Running back Joseph Randle has 196 carries, 1,008 yards and 9 touchdowns, along with 22 catches, for 172 yards. Desmond Roland has 4 rushing touchdowns, Jeremy Smith has 6. Roland also has a kickoff return for a touchdown. Receiver Josh Stewart has 69 catches, 838 yards and 5 touchdowns, along with a rushing touchdown. Blake Jackson has 29 catches, 528 yards and 2 touchdowns. Charlie Moore has 29 catches, 481 yards and 5 touchdowns. Tracy Moore has 20 catches, 259 yards and 4 touchdowns. He is out indefinitely with an ankle injury. John Goodlett has only 5 catches, but two of them went for touchdowns. Six Cowboys are listed as out against Texas Tech.
Texas Tech is 5-1 ATS after scoring more than 40 points, 12-5-1 after an ATS loss, 12-5 after allowing less than 170 passing yards, 7-3 in road games, 1-4 after allowing more than 200 rushing yards, after gaining more than 450 yards, after passing for more than 280 yards, and 1-5 in November. The under is 6-2 in this series in the last 8.
Oklahoma St is 10-2 ATS after allowing more than 280 passing yards, 4-1 at home, and in home games against teams with winning road records, 12-4 on fieldturf, 20-7 after passing for more than 280 yards, 14-6 in Big 12 games, 22-10 overall, 2-5 after a straight up win, 2-6 after allowing more than 450 yards, 1-5 after a cover, 1-6 after a straight up win of 20 points or more, and 0-4 after scoring more than 40 points. The Cowboys are 6-1 ATS in the last 7 against Texas Tech.
Expect a shootout between two explosive offenses. Texas Tech has struggled on defense in the last 3 games, after being a top 5 unit early in the season. I think Oklahoma St wins but 9.5 is too many points between two teams that are evenly matched.
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