Betting On The NFL Draft

The NFL Draft is just a couple of days away (50 hours and 42 minutes if anyone is counting), and like many of you I am in the violent final throes of draft fever. I’ve read (and written) so many mock drafts that I am almost blind, I’ve changed my mind on most players several times, and I have firmly embraced my biases (as a Michigan fan you can imagine how giddy I am right now – take that Suckeyes!). The only thing left for us degenerates to do is to figure out if we can make any money from this thing. Of course the sportsbooks are more than happy to help us out in that pursuit, offering us dozens of different props to throw our money at. Here are some of the most interesting:

First pick – I can’t find odds to bet that it will be Jake Long anywhere. Too bad – I’m feeling pretty good about that one.

Atlanta – There are reports out there that the Falcons aren’t going to pick Matt Ryan even if St. Louis picks Glenn Dorsey (incidentally, there are other reports saying that St. Louis is favoring Chris Long). I don’t see how that makes any sense at all, but if that is the case then there are some nice odds out there. Chris Long is 9/2 to be Atlanta’s pick, and Vernon Gholston is 10/1. The field is at 17/4. I still think tha tthe safest bet is Matt Ryan, but the price isn’t that attractive – 20/23.

Oakland – Darren McFadden is a decent fit here, but I am surprised by how heavily he is favored – 10/17.

Jets – Vernon Gholston is the favorite here at 1/1. I could see that unless McFadden is available (6/5). I also don’t want to rule out seeing the Jets trade down – if Ryan is still available then this will be a prime trade spot because New England would likely trade, too, and Baltimore wants him.

Baltimore – Their favorite is Ryan at 17/10. I don’t love that bet at that price – I don’t see how he is still available there. If he’s not my bet would be for them to trade down, but that’s not a choice.

Buffalo – I’m not positive I understand why they are doing it, but it seems pretty clear that Devin Thomas is their pick. That means that 11/10 is a decent price.

Rashard Mendenhall – You can bet on which team he will end up with. Detroit seems like the most likely choice, but it isn’t as likely as the odds suggest – 1/1. I’ll pass on this one.

Second QB drafted – I think that there is some value here. Brian Brohm is the favorite at 5/9, but I like Chad Henne’s chances a bit better, especially given he is at 9/5. The buzz is big around him, and I especially like the chances if Baltimore doesn’t get Matt Ryan. I don’t think they will, so I llike the Henne bet quite a bit.

Will New England trade their first pick? – I don’t see anyone that they are in love with, and they probably would rather have more picks than a high one. More importantly, New Orleans and Cincinnati could be interested in moving up to get Sedrick Ellis, and there will be a frenzy if Matt Ryan is still alive. The Pats are 13/10 to move down, and that’s worth a look.

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