AFC South Betting Picks Week 16: Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars
EverBank Field – Jacksonville, Florida
Sunday, December 22, 2013, 1:00 pm Eastern, TV: CBS, NFL Sunday Ticket
Opening Line: Tennessee -5 1/2
Current Line: Tennessee -5
Opening Total: 44
Current Total: 44
Opening Money Line: Titans -245 / Jaguars +205
Current Money Line: Titans -225 / Jaguars +185
The 5-9 Tennessee Titans travel to the 4-10 Jacksonville Jaguars Sunday. Although both teams are eliminated from playoff contention, they will not finish last in their division as the 2-12 Houston Texans have the league’s worst record. The 9-5 Indianapolis Colts have already clinched the AFC South title.
Since 2001, Tennessee leads the series 14-11 against Jacksonville. The Jaguars won 28-27 in Nashville November 10. It was the first win for Jacksonville after an 0-8 start. The Jaguars have gone 4-2 since then. Jacksonville had a safety and a defensive touchdown in the fourth quarter to secure the upset.
Tennessee is coached by Mike Munchak, who is in jeopardy of losing his job. The Titans started off the season 3-1, but have gone 2-8 since then. Tennessee has home wins over the San Diego Chargers 20-17 and New York Jets 38-13, along with road wins at the Pittsburgh Steelers 16-9, St. Louis Rams 28-21, and Oakland Raiders 23-19. The Titans have road losses at the Texans 30-24, Seattle Seahawks 20-13, Colts 22-14, and Denver Broncos 51-28, along with home losses to the Kansas City Chiefs 26-17, San Francisco 49ers 31-17, Jaguars, Colts 30-27, and last week against the Arizona Cardinals 37-34 in overtime. The Titans have lost 3 straight games. Tennessee is 6-7-1 ATS and the total is 9-4-1 this season. The Titans were 2.5 point underdogs against the Cardinals and the total was 43.
Tennessee is outscoring teams 25-23. The Titans are #18 in scoring and #19 in points allowed. Tennessee is averaging 338.1 yards per game including 226.6 passing and 111.5 rushing yards. The Titans are #21 in total and passing offense and #20 in rushing. On defense, Tennessee is allowing 345 yards per game including 225.9 passing and 119.1 rushing yards. The Titans are #14 in total defense, #10 in passing defense, and #23 in rush defense. Tennessee is -3 in turnovers. The Titans are 95/213 on third and fourth downs conversions and opponents are 68/188. Tennessee has forced and allowed 33 sacks this season. The Titans have 4 defensive/special teams touchdowns, and opponents have six. Tennessee averages 59 penalty yards per game and opponents average 51.
Tennessee quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick took over for Jake Locker who is out for the season with a broken foot. Fitzpatrick has completed 61.7% of his passes for 2,107 yards with 13 touchdowns and 10 interceptions, along with 38 carries, 226 yards and 3 touchdowns. He has been sacked 17 times this season. Locker completed 60.7% of his passes for 1,256 yards with 8 touchdowns and 4 interceptions, along with 24 carries for 155 yards and 2 touchdowns. He was sacked 16 times.
Running back Chris Johnson has 230 carries for 860 yards and 5 touchdowns, along with 38 catches, 328 yards and 4 touchdowns. He is probable with a knee injury. Shonn Greene has 52 catches for 194 yards and 3 touchdowns, along with 5 catches. Jackie Battle has 35 catches for 126 yards and a touchdown, along with 2 catches for 30 yards.
Receiver Kendall Wright has 85 catches for 1,007 yards and 2 touchdowns. Nate Washington has 50 catches for 763 yards and 2 touchdowns. Delanie Walker has 53 catches for 507 yards and 6 touchdowns. Justin Hunter has 18 catches for 354 yards and 4 touchdowns. Damian Williams has 14 catches for 146 yards but is questionable with a quad injury. Kenny Britt has 11 catches for 96 yards. Michael Preston has only 5 catches, but 2 of them went for touchdowns. Receiver Kevin Walter is out for the season with a back injury. Four defensive players and two offensive linemen are listed as questionable or out.
The Jaguars are coached by Gus Bradley in his first year. Jacksonville has road wins over the Tennessee Titans 29-27, Houston Texans 13-6, and at the Cleveland Browns 32-28, along with a home win over the Texans 27-10. The Jaguars have home losses to the Kansas City Chiefs 28-2, the Indianapolis Colts 37-3, the San Francisco 49ers 42-10 in London (technically a Jags’ home game), the San Diego Chargers 24-6, Arizona Cardinals 27-14 and last week against the Buffalo Bills 27-20, along with road losses at the Oakland Raiders 19-9, the Seattle Seahawks 45-17, the St. Louis Rams 34-20 and the Denver Broncos 35-19. The Jaguars are 5-9 ATS and the total is 9-5 this season. Jacksonville was an 4 point underdog against Buffalo last week and the total was 43.
The Jaguars are being outscored 29-16 this season. Jacksonville is last in scoring and #30 in points allowed. The Jaguars are averaging 291.1 yards per game (#31) including the #26 passing game at 207.6 yards and are #30 in rushing at 82.5 yards per game. The defense isn’t much better. Jacksonville is allowing 381.8 yards per game including 249.9 passing and 131.9 rushing yards. The Jaguars are #28 in total defense and #30 in rush defense. Jacksonville is -4 in turnovers. The Jaguars are 73/222 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 90/204. Jacksonville has allowed 45 quarterback sacks this season and forced 27. The Jags have allowed 4 defensive touchdowns this season and has 2 of their own. Jacksonville is averaging 50 penalty yards per game and opponents are averaging 50.
Jacksonville QB Chad Henne has completed 60% of his passes for 2673 yards with 10 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. He has been sacked 33 times this season and has 76 rushing yards. Blaine Gabbert started a few games earlier in the season. Gabbert has completed 48.8% of his passes for 481 yards with a touchdown and 7 picks, along with 9 carries for 32 yards. He has been sacked 12 times.
Running back Maurice Jones-Drew has 208 carries, 719 yards and 5 touchdown, along with 34 catches for 239 yards. He is doubtful with a hamstring injury after missing last week. Jordan Todman has 68 carries for 247 yards with 2 touchdowns along with 12 catches for 99 yards and a touchdown. He is probable with a shoulder injury. Denard Robinson has 19 carries for 55 yards. Little used running back Justin Forsett is out with a broken foot.
Receiver Cecil Shorts has 66 catches, 777 yards and 3 touchdowns. He is out for the season with a groin injury. Justin Blackmon returned from a 4 game suspension for violating the NFL”s substance abuse policy, and played in a few games. However, he failed another drug test and is suspended at least until next season. He had 29 catches for 415 yards and a touchdown. Ace Sanders has 41 catches for 414 yards and a touchdown. Mike Brown has 24 catches for 332 yards and a touchdown. Tight end Clay Harbor has 21 catches, 281 yards and 2 touchdown. Marcedes Lewis has 18 catches for 239 yards and 3 touchdowns. He is questionable with a thigh injury. Receivers Stephen Williams (Achilles) and Stephen Burton (concussion) are both out. Eight defensive players and four offensive linemen are listed on the injury report.
Tennessee is 4-1 ATS against teams with losing records, 5-2 in road games, 4-9-1 after allowing 350 total yards or more, 8-25-1 after passing for 250 yards or more, 1-4 against teams with losing home records, 3-12-1 against AFC South teams, 2-9 in December, 1-5 overall, and against AFC teams, 1-6 on grass, 1-7 after scoring 30 points or m0re, and 0-4 in week 16. The under is 5-2-1 in this series recently and 5-1 in Jacksonville.
Jacksonville is 4-1 ATS against AFC teams, 5-2 against AFC South teams, 6-13 overall, 3-7 after a straight up loss, and against teams with losing records, 4-11 in week 16, 10-29-1 after allowing more than 350 total yards, 1-4 against teams with losing road records, and after allowing more than 150 rushing yards, and 1-6 at home. The Jaguars have covered 5 of the last 6 against the Titans.
Jacksonville has been playing a lot better than Tennessee recently, but the jaguars are very banged up right now. I think Tennessee wins a high scoring game on the road.