ACC College Football Picks: Virginia Tech Hokies at Boston College Eagles
Virginia Tech Hokies at Boston College Eagles
Alumni Stadium – Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts
Saturday, November 2, 2013, 12:00 am Eastern, TV: ABC or ESPN2
Opening Line: Virginia Tech -6
Current Line: Virginia Tech -4 1/2
Opening Total: 41
Current Total: 40
Opening Money Line: Virginia Tech -190 / Boston College +162
Current Money Line: Virginia Tech -185 / Boston College +160
The 6-2 Virginia Tech Hokies were upset at home by Duke 13-10 last week. The loss dropped the Hokies to 3-1 in the ACC Coastal Division, a half game behind 3-0 Miami. Virginia Tech looks to rebound as they travel to the 3-4 Boston College Eagles who are 1-3 in the ACC Atlantic. The Eagles have an outside shot of going to a bowl game but must go 3-2 in their last 5 games. Virginia Tech leads the series 15-6 against Boston College, and has won 5 straight in the series including a 30-23 overtime victory in Chestnut Hill last season.
Virginia Tech is coached by Frank Beamer. The Hokies lost to Alabama 35-10 in Atlanta to start the season but then won six straight games before the Duke upset. Virginia Tech has home wins over Western Carolina 45-3, Marshall 29-21 in triple overtime, North Carolina 27-17, and Pittsburgh 19-9, along with road wins at East Carolina 15-10 and Georgia Tech 17-10. The Hokies are 3-4-1 ATS and the total is 1-6-1 this season. Virginia Tech was a 12 point favorite against Duke and the total was 47.
Duke kicked two field goals in the second quarter to take a 6-0 halftime lead against Virginia Tech. The Blue Devils expanded the lead to 13-0 midway through the third. The Hokies would pull to within 13-7 late in the third quarter. Virginia Tech kicked a field goal with 9:23 left in the fourth to pull within 13-10. The Hokies’ defense forced an interception on the next Duke drive. However, Virginia Tech missed a 40 yard field goal on the ensuing drive. After a Duke punt, Virginia Tech quarterback Logan Thomas threw his fourth interception of the game with 4:22 left. The Hokies would never get the ball back as Duke drove from their own 47 to the Virginia Tech 36 and ran out the clock. Virginia Tech had 387 total yards including 173 rushing yards. Duke had 198 total yards and 13 first downs. Each team had 6 penalties and 4 turnovers.
Virginia Tech is outscoring teams 22-15 this season. Virginia Tech is #102 in scoring nationally and #5 in points allowed out of 125 teams. The Hokies are averaging 335.8 total yards per game including 211.2 passing and 124.5 rushing yards. Virginia Tech is 85th or worse in all offensive categories including #106 in rushing and #111 in total yards nationally out of 125 teams. On defense, the Hokies are allowing 248.8 total yards per game, including 157.8 passing and 91 rushing yards. The Hokies are #5 or better in all three categories. The Hokies are +9 in turnovers with 20 takeaways. Virginia Tech is 50/140 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 38/125. The Hokies have forced 28 sacks and allowed 12. Virginia Tech is 17/26 scoring in the red zone with 13 touchdowns and opponents are 11/14 with 8 touchdowns. The Hokies have one defensive touchdown but have given up a pick six, a kickoff return and a punt return for touchdowns. Virginia Tech is averaging 44 penalty yards per game and so are opponents.
Hokie quarterback Logan Thomas has completed 55.2% of his passes for 1,665 yards with 9 touchdowns and 10 interceptions, and also has 101 carries, 258 yards and 4 touchdowns. Running back Trey Edmunds has 119 carries, 437 yards and 4 touchdowns, along with 8 catches for 50 yards. J.C. Coleman has 31 carries for 117 yards, along with 4 catches. Chris Mangus has 20 carries, 115 yards and a touchdown, along with 7 catches for 74 yards. Receiver Demitri Knowles has 33 catches, 415 yards and 2 touchdowns. Willie Byrn has 29 catches, 375 yards and a touchdown. D.J. Coles has 14 catches for 202 yards and 5 touchdowns. Joshua Stanford and the stylishly named Kalvin Cline each will get significant targets as well. Ten Defensive players and two tight ends are listed on the injury report.
Boston College is coached by Steve Addazio in his first year. The Eagles have home wins over Villanova 24-14, Wake Forest 24-14, and Army 48-27. BC has road losses at USC 35-7, Clemson 24-14 and last week at North Carolina 34-10 and at home against Florida State 48-34. The Eagles are 4-3 ATS and the total is 2-5 this season. Boston College was an 5.5 point underdog against UNC and the total was 58.
Boston College took a 7-6 lead at the end of the first quarter but North Carolina scored 28 straight points to take a 34-7 lead midway through the fourth quarter. The Eagles would add a late meaningless field goal to make the final 34-10. BC had 261 total yards including 201 rushing yards, and just 12 first downs. The Tar Heels had 392 total yards including 282 total yards. The Eagles had the only turnover of the game.
Boston College is being outscored 27-23 this season. BC is #94 nationally in scoring. The Eagles are averaging 340.4 total yards per game including 176.6 rushing and 163.9 passing yards. Boston College is #109 in total offense and #113 in passing out of 125 teams. BC is allowing 422.3 yards per game including 237.9 passing and 184.4 rushing yards. Boston College is #73 or worse in all three categories.. The Eagles are +3 in turnovers with 10 takeaways. Boston College is 34/102 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 43/106. BC is averaging 33 penalty yards per game and opponents are averaging 42. The Eagles have forced 20 sacks this season and allowed 17. BC is 13/14 scoring in the red zone with 8 touchdowns and opponents are 19/24 with 14 touchdowns. The Eagles have allowed one pick six and a fumble return for a touchdown this season
BC quarterback Chase Rettig has completed 62.3% of his passes for 1,140 yards with 10 touchdowns and 4 interceptions, along with 40 carries for only 4 yards. Running back Andre Williams has 183 carries, 1,010 yards and 8 touchdowns. No other back besides Rettig has more than 19 carries. Myles Willis and Tyler Rouse each have a rushing touchdown, and Willis also has touchdown reception. Receiver Alex Amidon has 46 catches, 585 yards and 3 touchdowns. No other receiver has more than 8 catches this season but C.J. Parsons has two touchdown catches. Two defensive players are listed as questionable or out Saturday for BC along with three little used wide receivers.
Virginia Tech is 21-8 ATS in November, 10-22-2 overall, 7-18-1 after allowing less than 100 rushing yards, 7-19-1 after allowing 275 total yards or less, 1-3-1 after scoring less than 20 points, 4-14 after scoring 20 points or less, 2-8-1 against teams with losing records, 3-12-1 after allowing 170 passing yards or less and 1-8 in road games. The favorite is 5-2 ATS in this series recently. The over is 4-1-1 in the last six in this series.
Boston College is 4-0 ATS after failing to cover, 6-1 at home, against teams with winning road records, and after gaining more than 275 total yards, 5-1 after rushing for 200 yards or more, against teams with winning records, and on fieldturf, 5-2 after a straight up loss, and in November, 9-4 after scoring less than 20 points, and 1-4 after passing for less than 170 yards. The Eagles are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 home games against the Hokies.
Both of these teams are offensively challenged to say the least. The difference is Virginia Tech has a top five defense and Boston College struggles on defense as well. Virginia Tech should rebound, but this should be very low scoring.