ACC Betting Preview: #3 Duke Blue Devils at North Carolina Tar Heels

#3 Duke Blue Devils at North Carolina Tar Heels
Saturday, March 9 2013, 9:00 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN
Dean Smith Center – Chapel Hill, North Carolina 

Opening Line: Pick
Current Line: North Carolina -2

Opening Total: 152 1/2
Current Total: 151
Opening Money Line: North Carolina -130 / Duke +110
Current Money Line: North Carolina -130 / Duke +110

North Carolina is a two point favorite at home against rival Duke saturday.

North Carolina is a two point favorite at home against rival Duke saturday.

Although the Miami Hurricanes clinched the ACC regular season title earlier today, there is still a lot at stake for the 26-4 Duke Blue Devils as they take on their arch rivals the 22-8 North Carolina in Chapel Hill. The Blue Devils are 13-4 in the ACC and UNC is 12-5. Duke could be in line for a #1 seed in the NCAA tournament.

North Carolina leads the series 132-103 including 15-12 in the Smith Center. Duke has won 6 of the last 8 against North Carolina, including 73-68 in Durham February 13. In that game Duke didn’t take their first lead until 14 minutes left in the second half. North Carolina was within 4 points with just under a minute to go but Duke held on for the 5 point win.

Duke is coached by Mike Krzyzewski. Duke’s losses this came season came at North Carolina St, Miami, Maryland, and Virginia. The Blue Devils have key wins over Kentucky in Atlanta, Minnesota, VCU, and Louisville in a tournament in the Bahamas, Ohio St, Temple in East Rutherford, New Jersey, Davidson in Charlotte,  Wake Forest, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Maryland, Wake Forest, Florida St, North Carolina St, Boston College twice, North Carolina, Miami and at Virginia Tech twice including 85-57 Tuesday in Durham. The Blue Devils are 16-14 ATS and the total is 16-13 this season.

Duke is outscoring teams 79-65 this season. The Blue Devils are #8 in scoring nationally. Duke is shooting 47.6% from the field and 41.9% from 3 point range. The Blue Devils are #20 in field goal percentage and #2 in 3 point shooting nationally. Duke makes 72.5% of their free throws. The Blue Devils average 34.1 rebounds per game and give up 32.3  per game. Duke opponents are shooting 41.8% from the field and 29.5% from 3 point range. the Blue Devils are #17 in 3 point defense.  Duke averages 15 assists, 7 steals, 4 blocks, and 11 turnovers a game.

Forward Mason Plumlee averages 17 points, 10.2 rebounds, 2.1 assists, and 1.6 blocks per game. Guard Seth Curry averages 17 points, 2.4 rebounds and 1.6 assists per game.  Forward Ryan Kelly missed 13 games with a foot injury. Duke is 17-0 when Kelly is on the floor. He averages 15 points, 5.7 rebounds, 1.6 assists, and 1.6 blocks per game. Guard Quinn Cook averages  12.6 points, 3.8 rebounds, 5.3 assists, and 1.5 steals per game. Guard Rasheed Sulaimon averages 11.7 points, 3.3 rebounds, and 2.1 assists. Tyler Thornton, Amile Jefferson, and Josh Hairston make up the rest of the rotation. Hairston started in place of Kelly, but none of those three players average more than 4.5 points per game.

North Carolina is coached by Roy Williams. The Tar Heels have additional losses to Butler in the Maui Invitational, at Indiana, at Texas, at Virginia, Miami twice, and at NC State. Since the loss to Duke, North Carolina has won 6 straight games. The Tar Heels have key wins at Long Beach St, against Mississippi St in Maui, UAB, East Carolina, UNLV, Florida St twice, Maryland twice including 79-68 Wednesday in College Park, Georgia Tech twice, at Boston College, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, NC State, and at Clemson. UNC is 18-9 ATS and the total is 11-16 this season.

North Carolina is outscoring teams 78-69 this season. The Tar heels are #13 in scoring nationally. North Carolina is shooting 44.6% from the field and 37.6% from 3 point range. The Tar Heels make 65.8% of their free throws. UNC averages 39.8 rebounds per game and allows 33.8 per game. The Tar heels are #11 in rebounding but #306 out of 347 teams in rebounds allowed. UNC opponents’ are shooting 41.5% from the field and 34.5% from 3 point range. The Tar Heels are averaging 18 assists, 8 steals, 4 blocks, and 13 turnovers. UNC is second nationally in assists.

Forward James Michael McAdoo averages 14.6 points, 7.8 rebounds, 1.3 assists, and 1.5 steals per game. Guard/forward Reggie Bullock averages 14.4 points, 6.4 rebounds, 2.9 assists, and 1.3 steals per game. Guard P.J. Hairston averages 13.6 points, 4.1 rebounds, and 1.5 assists. Leslie McDonald averages 7.6 points, 2 rebounds, and 1.4 assists per game. Guard Dexter Strickland averages 7.9 points, 2.5 rebounds, 4.1 assists, and 1.3 steals. Forward Brice Johnson averages 6.3 points, and 3.6 rebounds per game. Guard Marcus Paige averages 7.8 points, 2.9 rebounds, 4.5 assists, and a steal a game. Forward Joel James is doubtful with a concussion.

Duke is 2-5 ATS in Saturday games, 2-6 in road games, and against teams with winning home records, 2-7 after a cover, 1-4 after a straight up win of 20 points or more, and 0-4 against teams with winning records.  The road team has covered the last 4 in this series. The Blue Devils are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in Chapel Hill.

North Carolina is 7-0 ATS overall, and in ACC games, 6-0 after a cover, and against teams with winning records, 5-0 after a win, and 4-0 at home. The under is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 in this series and 4-1 in Chapel Hill.

Although these these two teams usually play for the ACC title, that is off the table. There is still a lot a t stake for both teams though. Even if there wasn’t it’s still Duke and Carolina. This will be a war as it usually is between these two teams that really don’t like each other. The Tar Heels have been red hot since the loss to the Blue Devils earlier in the season. However, Duke is undefeated when Kelly plays. I like Duke to win a close game on the road.

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Posted by on Mar 9 2013. Filed under College Basketball, Headlines. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

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