A Good Reminder
I’ve probably mentioned this before, but I live in Calgary, the home of the Flames. I went to the Flames game tonight with a buddy, and it was a very good lesson in the challenges of sports betting. There was absolutely no reason not to pick the Flames tonight. Calgary was the hottest team in the league, securing 23 of the last 26 possible points. They were next to unbeatable at home. They had split the season series so far this year over two games, with the road team winning both games. Those games hadn’t happened since the beginning of November, though, so both teams were different than they were then – Phoenix was a bit worse, and Calgary was much, much better. Calgary was the -203 favorite in the game, and the game was being broadcast on Hockey Night in Canada – a very strong position for a Canadian team. On top of that, Calgary had played their best game of the year on Thursday, and it was perhaps the best game any team had played all year. They beat San Jose in San Jose, and they became the first team all season to do that. In short, Calgary was as close to a lock as a team can be.
As I am sure you can figure out, the Flames lost the game. They only lost 4-3, but they deserved to lose by more. Two of the four goals against were truly and totally pathetic. Jarome Iginla, clearly Calgary’s best player, was pretty lousy all night, with a fight early on the only highlight. Goalie Miikka Kiprusoff looked as bad as he can look. It was a truly ugly and uninspired performance. Sitting in the stands, there was never a moment that I thought that we were going to win. We got down early and we stayed down all game. Very ugly. Frustrating. The only thing that made it bearable was that beer was for sale.
The game, as I said, was a valuable reminder – Calgary should have won the game with their eyes closed, and the odds suggested as much. They obviously didn’t, and a lot of bettors were poorer as a result. The lesson – strong odds are no sure indicator of success. That should be obvious, but it often isn’t. A heavy favorite can lose pretty easily, and it doesn’t even take an exceptional effort by the underdog much of the time. Calgary lost tonight for one single reason – they didn’t care enough to win. That was frustrating as a fan, but a good reminder for bettors – don’t take anything for granted.
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Tags: Calgary Flames, NHL
