2012 Preakness Stakes Betting Preview
2012 Preakness Stakes
Pimlico Race Course – Baltimore, Maryland
1 3/16 miles – dirt track
Saturday, May 19, 2012, 6:18 pm Eastern, TV: NBC
Two weeks ago, I’ll Have Another caught Bodemeister at the end to win the Kentucky Derby. Bodemeister set a blistering pace for the first 3/4 of the race and held the track record. However, he set too fast a pace and tired at the end. Bodemeister held on for second, over Dullahan and Went the Day Well. All except Dullahan will race in the Preakness.
I’ll Have Another will try to win the Triple Crown, something that hasn’t happened since Affirmed in 1978. Numerous horses have come close but no one has done it in 35 years, the longest ever drought in horse racing history.
Here is a look at all 11 entries and their morning line odds.
Tiger Walk (30-1) / Trainer: Ignacio Correas IV / Jockey: Kent Desormeaux
Tiger Walk hasn’t raced since the Wood Memorial last month. It was his first Grade I stakes race and he came in 4th. He had 2 wins as a two year old, but only has a third this year in the Grade III Withers. All his 2012 races have come at Aquaduct. He has never raced at Pimlico is 7 career races. I don’t see him contending, and the inside post position doesn’t help either.
Teeth of the Dog (15-1) / Trainer: Michael Matz / Jockey: Joe Bravo
Teeth of the Dog also hasn’t raced since the Wood. He has only had 4 races in his career, and was thrown into the Grade I Wood Memorial. He was the longest shot on the board and came in an impressive 3rd behind Kentucky Derby starters Gemologist and Alpha. He could surprise but being so lightly raced concerns me. Outside of the Wood, he only has 3 Maiden stakes races under his belt. He has finished in the money in 3 of his 4 races.
Pretension (30/1) / Trainer: Christopher Grove / Jockey: Javier Santiago
Pretension finished first or second in each of his first 5 races. He finished 5th at the Grade III Gotham and 9th at the Grade III Illinois Derby before winning the Canonereo at Pimlico on May 5th, the day of the Kentucky Derby. He could be a dark horse here as he just won on this track and has finished 1st or second in 6 of 8 career races.
Zetterholm (20/1) / Trainer: Richard Dutrow, Jr. / Jockey: Junior Alvarado
Zetterholm has won 3 races in a row, including the Patsyprospect Stakes at Aqueduct April 6. He only has 5 races but has 3 firsts and a second in those races. He really hasn’t beaten anybody yet, and that is the only thing I see that could hold him back.
Went the Day Well (6-1) / Trainer: H. Graham Motion / Jockey: John Velazquez
Went the Day Well was 17th early in the Knetucky Derby, but rallied for 4th, only 2.5 lengths behind the winner I’ll Have Another. He has 2 wins and 2 seconds in 6 career races. His best win was the Grade 3 Spiral Stakes at Turfway Park on a synthetic track. He shouldn’t get caught in traffic like he did in the Derby with only 11 horses in the field. He should be there at the end.
Creative Cause (6-1) / Trainer: Mike Harrington / Jockey: Joel Rosario
Creative Cause was within striking distance heading down the backstretch at the Derby. He ended up 5th but some say he was the best horse in the field. In 9 career starts, he has finished in the money 8 times with 4 wins. He has plenty of big race experience with 8 stakes races in his career. He beat I’ll Have Another when they were two year olds last August. He came in third to Hansen and Union Rags in the Breeders Cup Juvenile. He beat Bodemeister in the Grade 2 San Felipe, and came in second to I’ll Have Another in the Santa Anita Derby. In nine races, he has only been outside of California twice, the BC Juvenile and the Kentucky Derby, both at Churchill. Creative Cause certainly has the talent to win, and already has beaten the two Preakness favorites. If he stay off the rail, he will be there at the end.
Bodiemeister (8/5) / Trainer: Bob Baffert / Jockey: Mike Smith
Bodiemeister set a blistering pace for most of the Kentucky Derby and ran the fastest splits ever for the first mile. Unfortunately he ran out of gas at the end and I’ll Have Another passed him at the end. Bodemeister didn’t race as a 2 year old, but has 2 wins and 3 places in 5 career starts. He won the Arkansas Derby beating Secret Circle and Sabercat. Had the Derby been 1 3/16 miles instead of 1 1/4 miles Bodemeister would be going for the Triple Crown instead of I’ll Have Another. He isn’t though, but he is my pick to win the Preakness.
Daddy Nose Best (12/1) / Trainer: Steven Asmussen / Jockey: Julien Laparoux
Daddy Nose Best has finished in the money 7 times in 11 career starts with 4 wins. He won the Grade III Sunland Stakes in New Mexico. In the Derby, he started off well, but tired and faded to 10th. Until the Derby he had raced 7 straight times on turf or synthetics.
I’ll Have Another (5/2) / Trainer: Doug O’Neill / Jockey: Mario Gutierrez
I’ll Have Another has 4 wins and a second in 6 career starts. He has won 3 races in a row in 2012, none bigger than the Kentucky Derby. He also beat Creative Cause in the Santa Anita. I would love to see him win, but I don’t know if he will be able to catch Bodemeister this time.
Optimizer (30/1) / Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas / Jockey: Corey Nakatani
Optimizer has raced in 9 stakes races in 10 career starts. However, he only has 4 money finishes, with just one win in his maiden. He has been tested, but has struggled in those tests. He came in 11th of 20 horses at the Kentucky Derby. I don’t think he will contend, but his experience will help him.
Cozzetti (30/1) / Trainer: Dale Romans / Jockey: Jose Lezcano
Cozzetti has only one win and a third in 7 career starts. His win came in his third maiden stakes race, and he came in third in the Grade II Tampa Bay Stakes. He hasn’t raced since the Arkansas Derby April 14th. He came in 4th to Bodemeister in that race. I don’t think he will contend in this race.
It should be a good race. I like Bodemeister, I’ll Have Another, Creative Cause, and Went The Day Well. A dollar trifecta box will cost you $24 with those four horses.