Maddux Sports Blog

I am not a happy guy right now. See, I like Louisville. A lot. That means my faith is being truly tested. The third ranked Cardinals were playing their third game, and it shouldn’t have been a contest. They were playing Western Kentucky - a team that hadn’t beaten a top three team in 41 years - and they were favored by 19.5. In the end it wasn’t a contest, but the wrong team ran away with it. It was tied at the half, but Western Kentucky came out strong early on in the second half and never looked back. Ultimately, they won by 14 in a game that went under the total by 17 points. The result is disturbing, but beyond that it raises some key issues when it comes to handicapping Louisville:

1. Is this a fluke or a vulnerability? The Hilltoppers pulled this off by doing a couple of things. They went small and fast, and they double-teamed Samardo Samuels all night. Samuels got frustrated and lost his cool, and the team only managed to shoot 27 percent from the field. There’s a good chance that this was an anomaly, but there is also the possibility that it isn’t. You can guarantee that the next several coaches that face the Cardinals will try some version of the same approach. I have all sorts of faith in Rick Pitino’s ability to turn this thing around quickly, but I will still be very uncomfortable until I see the team play a strong team and come out strong themselves. The one thing that makes me feel better is that Samuels is a freshman, and a reasonably raw one, so he will learn a ton from this frustrating experience.

2. Is this a sign of a bigger problem? Teams can be caught off guard and have a terrible day. The core of this team isn’t young, though, so they shouldn’t be vulnerable to overlooking a grossly mismatched team.

3. Are we wrong about the Big East? This conference is ridiculously tough. So far we have seen a few things besides this loss that makes us wonder - Marquette was upset, Notre Dame lost Luke Harangody and so on. It’s obviously way too early to panic or significantly adjust assumptions about the league, but I can’t help but be a bit nervous.

4. Why can’t Louisville win in neutral sites? They have played six games in neutral sites in the last three seasons. They have lost five, including four to unranked teams. They have been very solid the last three years, so that performance is obviously grossly below expectations. A pun because I can’t resist - why are the Cardinals stuck in neutral in neutral sites?

Since this is essentially the end of the regular season, this will be our last look at top 25 games to watch. Worry not, though - we’ll find lots of (hopefully) interesting ways to fill the space.

The biggest problem this week has is that a few games that would other wise be interesting are meaningless. I would have loved, for example, to see what Cincinnati could do against a weak Syracuse team. Cincinnati’s BCS bid has been secured, though, so the intensity won’t be there - staying healthy is the priority. Kansas at Missouri is a game that could have been good but is also absolutely meaningless. There are still plenty of gems, though:

Auburn at Alabama - The Tide obviously need a win to stay undefeated and atop the BCS. They also need to sharpen up for Florida. Auburn needs to do something to salvage their pride, and a win here in this big rivalry would be a perfect way to do that. I will be watching Alabama closely to see if they are really for real and ready for a huge challenge next week.

Texas Tech at Baylor - The Red Raiders should come  out and kick the ever-loving crap out of Baylor. If they don’t then there are bigger problems in Lubbock than we guessed.

Florida at Florida State - Florida needs a big win to get ready for Alabama and to secure their BCS standing. Florida State just wants to play spoiler against a bitter rival.

Oregon at Oregon State - The Civil War is perhaps the most under-appreciated rivalry in the country (except maybe the Holy War). These teams really, really hate each other. The stakes are huge here. Oregon State goes to the BCS with a win,  but they have to do it without Jaquizz Rodgers. Oregon can spoil it for the Beavers, and that would make them very happy. Pete Carroll probably called Oregon to help with game-planning. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him on Oregon’s sideline - he sure doesn’t need to be there for the Notre Dame game.

Oklahoma at Oklahoma State - Bedlam is going to be, well, bedlam. Oklahoma needs a huge win. Oklahoma State is dying to play spoiler again, as they have twice already this decade.

There is absolutely nothing wrong with watching college football on a Friday morning. In fact, I could get used to it. Neither the West Virginia - Pittsburgh nor the Nebraska - Colorado games were classics, but they were both entertaining and a good way to spend a day. I had Colorado to cover so I was pleased, but I am disappointed for them that they didn’t become bowl eligible. The Nebraska wins that I don’t have to worry about watching the Gator Bowl - the Huskers against an ACC team is not a recipe for a good game.

I caught the tail end of the Oklahoma - Purdue game that the Sooners won in overtime. Those are two very solid teams. Oklahoma now has beaten two ranked teams (Davidson), and other than USC next they have the easiest schedule possible over the next month. They could very easily be 16-0 when conference play starts. That will keep their ranking very secure. Purdue has a tougher schedule. They play Duke next in the ACC - Big Ten Challenge. That will be a very god measure for both teams.

Tennessee beat up on Georgetown today. That’s an interesting result. I don’t really like either of the teams, so this win doesn’t really make me respect the Vols more. They are 5-0, though. The biggest concern fans of the team should have is that freshman stud Scotty Hopson, who has to be a big part of this team if they want to do anything, has not looked comfortable at all. He isn’t scoring and isn’t contributing nearly as much as he needs to. There are some challenges remaining before conference play - Marquette, Gonzaga and Kansas.

While you all are down there eating turkey and watching football, I’m stuck up here in Canada watching football and wishing I has some turkey. Enjoy it while you can.

I was going to do a take on the Turkey Awards for college football today. But then I saw this one, and I couldn’t possibly do better. Check it out. I am particularly fond of the Kevin Hart story.

Have some turkey for me today - I like white meat. Oh, and lots of mashed potatoes, too.

Tom Coughlin, New York Giants - It’s very well documented and obvious what Coughlin has done in the last season and a half in New York. What is remarkable about him, though, is that somehow his teams keep covering the spread no matter how much of a love affair the media has with them. He is in the midst of his fifth season with the Giants. He’s already guaranteed to have a profitable season for bettors this year since he is 9-2 ATS. He has then had only two non-profitable season, and both were barely so - 8-8 and 7-8-1. He was 10-5-1 ATS n 2005. Last year he was 10-6 ATS and a perfect 4-0 in the playoffs. Not only is he 9-2 this year, but he has covered his last six in a row despite the fact that everyone in the public regularly reads that they are the class of the league. That tells me that he has his team focused and playing their best instead of just well enough to win. That’s a bettor’s wet dream. He wasn’t as impressively reliable with Jacksonville, but he was still solid - he had four profitable seasons in eight years, and he never covered fewer than seven games. In his first job at Boston College, Coughlin had two very profitable years, and was 6-6 ATS in the third.

Gary Patterson, TCU - Patterson may be in his last days with TCU before moving on to brighter pastures. Bettors will want to pay special attention where he goes. He has been an absolute gem in recent years for bettors. He finished the regular season this year at 8-3 ATS. That’s the identical record that he had in both 2005 and 2006. His performance last year wasn’t as impressive, but 5-6-1 ATS isn’t disastrous. It’s no surprise that Patterson is as good to bettors as he is - his combination of rigid defensive discipline and decent offense is a perfect formula for covering spreads. He’s also proven to be very good at preparing his team for their bowl games - he has won and covered each of his last three bowl games.

Wally Buono, B.C. Lions - Buono didn’t lead his team to the Grey Cup this year - they lost to Calgary in the Western Conference final. Despite that, Buono has a remarkable record of consistency in the league. There are five teams in the conference, and the top two play in the conference final, with the winner going to the Grey Cup. Buono has coached in the CFL for 19 seasons. He has made it at least as far as the conference final in 16 of those seasons. He’s been to the Grey Cup eight times, and won it four times. He has finished in first place in the regular season 12 different times. There very likely isn’t a more consistent coach over a two decade period currently active in football. Buono also has a very good record of developing quarterbacks. He was the CFL coach of Jeff Garcia and Doug Flutie.

Worst NFL Game of the Week - Baltimore at Cincinnati is going to be an ugly blowout. Kansas City at Oakland features two teams playing together that nobody really wants to watch. There is some hope their, though - Oakland is coming off a win, and Kansas City at least has shown offensive potential. It won’t be a good game, but it at least has the potential to be interesting. The clear winner, though, is Miami at St. Louis. Miami is fine, but St. Louis is so indescribably bad that there can’t be one positive thing said about them, or one good reason to watch this one.

Best NFL Game of the Week - There are really only three contenders here. The Giants at Washington is a decent divisional showdown, though it would be better if Washington wasn’t slumping. Chicago and Minnesota is another good divisional tilt with big playoff implications. The clear winner, though, is Pittsburgh at New England. We get to see the suddenly invincible Matt Cassel face his biggest defensive test yet, and the game has huge implications for the playoffs in all sorts of ways.

Game With Teams With the Most to Prove - Arizona at Philadelphia. The Eagles need to prove that their disaster on Sunday was just a blip (not that I think it was). The Cardinals need to start winning games against evenly matched teams - there are no weaklings to beat up on in the playoffs.

Oddest Line - Given the fact that Seattle has been a perennial contender for years now, it seems very odd to see Seattle as 12.5 point underdogs on Thanksgiving against the Cowboys. I bet  the TV executives are thrilled about that one.

Best College Game - There are a few to choose from here. Florida at Florida State is a good rivalry with all sorts of BCS implications for both teams. Auburn at Alabama shouldn’t be close, but it’s another good rivalry, and it will be interesting to see where Alabama’s head is at. The big Big 12 game of the week is probably the winner yet again, though. Oklahoma needs to beat their state rivals to maintain the momentum they built against Texas Tech.

Filling Me With Dread - The Michigan season is, mercifully, over. Next year cannot possibly be worse. Can it?

Four Interesting Games Between Unranked Teams - Kent State (+10) at Buffalo. I have a thing for Buffalo, and a win here secures them a much deserved spot in their championship game. Colorado (+16.5) at Nebraska. Colorado becomes bowl eligible with a win. Nebraska secures a pretty sweet bowl if they win. Who wants it more? Virginia (+8.5) at Virginia Tech. Virginia Tech needs a win in this fun rivalry to secure a spot in the championship game. North Carolina (-8) at Duke. Just close your eyes and pretend this one is taking place on a basketball court.

Biggest Line - Texas A&M (+34) at Texas. Remember when the Aggies used to be relevant? It seems almost impossible to believe that it wasn’t that long ago.

1. It sucks to be Texas Tech. With one lousy performance they cost their school a shot at a national championship and probably a Heisman, and instead of a huge bowl in front of a massive national audience they will be stuck in something like the Cotton Bowl that no one really cares about. I don’t feel nearly as bad for them, though, as I do for those, like me, who thought that this team was for real. The Big 12 is now officially a confusing mess.

2. I am thrilled for the University at Bufalo. They are going to be heading to their first ever bowl game, and they stand a good chance of making their conference championship game, too. If you have been reading this site for a while then you may remember I went to their first game of the year against UTEP. I was impressed by what coach Turner Gill was doing then, and that certainly hasn’t changed since. This guy is destined for a bigger job, likely as soon as this year, and he will be a star.

3. Charlie Weis has, once and for all, proven his utter incompetence. His loss at home to Syracuse is totally unforgivable, but especally since he spent the entire press conference leading up to the game cracking jokes and making fun of reporters and sounding like he was the king of the world. The Irish need to cut him loose, and I don’t care what it costs them. The guy clearly has no ability to manage a team, and they need to get rid of him before he irreparably harms the recruiting efforts of the school. After two bad choices in a row, the school needs to make a safe, hard working, proven choice who can roll up his sleeves and fix the attitude of the place. Like Turner Gill, for example.

4. The ACC is a joke. There were three ranked teams coming into this weekend - UNC, Miami and Maryland. All three were blown out - the closest margin was 18 points. Now all three teams are out of the rankings and three more are in. This conference does not deserve their BCS bid this year.

5. Florida should be ashamed of themselves, and punished in the polls, for scheduling a patsy like The Citadel this late in the season. Playing a team like that in September is bad enough, but mildly forgivable as a pseudo-exhibition game to get ready for the season. There is no excuse for it now, though, other than the athletic department really only felt like playing an 11 game schedule while getting paid for 12. Pathetic.

6. The AFC West should just collectively fold. That’s the only way for that pathetic group to salvage any pride.

7. This Donovan McNabb story is big after he got benched, but it shouldn’t really come as news to anyone who is paying attention. When was the last time that the guy’s play measured up to his repuation? Two years? Three? Four? The best possible thing for him and the Eagles would be for him to find a new address. He’d be an excellent consolation prize for whichever team loses out in the inevitable and sure to be ridiculous Matt Cassel derby.

8. The over was 10-4-1 this weekend in the NFL. Are defenses getting tired after a long season, or just an anomaly?

9. Baltimore benefited from the aforementioned McNabb debacle, but they sure looked good. They have been playing very well, and are in a three way tie for the AFC wild card. I am concerned, though, about how long they have to play without a real bye week. Especially since Joe Flacco is almost certain to hit a wall at some point since this season is much longer than he is used to.

10. My gut sense is that the AFC is much better than the NFC this year. I was surprised then, to discover that more NFC teams have winning records against the AFC than vice versa - six versus five. Overall, the NFC is 23-19 against the AFC

You may have missed it (in fact, unless you live in Canada the the chances are pretty high that you did), but the Grey Cup, the championship of the Canadian Football League, was played in Montreal today. The Grey Cup has been contested since 1909, and it is a great excuse for Canadians to get together, have some drinks, and revel in their Canadianism. This year it was played between my hometown Calgary Stampeders and the Montreal Alouettes. The game is played in a different site every year like the Super Bowl is, so it was just a fluke that Montreal enjoyed a home game. It didn’t help. My boys won 22-14 in a game that was a pick ‘em, and a party ensued.

I’m not going to spend much time talking about the game, because I fully realize that you almost certainly don’t care about three down football. I’ll be totally candid - it might make me a bad Canadian, but I much prefer the NFL, and especially college football, to the CFL. What I was struck by as I was watching tonight’s game, though, is that this is a league that more bettors need to be paying attention to. Here are six good reasons why:

1. Soft lines. The CFL is growing in betting popularity, but it still isn’t exactly setting volume records. For bettors who are willing to do a bit of homework that is very good news. A big portion of the betting done on the league is emotionally driven, so it isn’t backed by reason. If you can bring detached reason to it then you can often find lines that don’t make real sense - especially when a popular team like Saskatchewan is playing a less popular one like Hamilton.

2. Lack of information sophistication. This may sound like a bad thing, but it is actually a gift to bettors. When a casual bettor wants to bet on the NFL they can easily find every statistic and analysis they could ever want. In the CFL that’s just not the case. The stats are out there, but you have to look hard for them, and you may have to use a spreadsheet to tweak and calculate the stats you might want. If you are willing to do that little bit of work, you can grab a big edge over the public. That’s a unique and profitable opportunity.

3. Consistency. Calgary was the best team on the league. They won the most games, and they played in the tougher division. They had the top rusher and the top receiver. Montreal was the tops in the other division. Calgary played Montreal three times, and they beat them three times. That’s not atypical. This league has a good habit - the better teams regularly and reliably win.

4. Small league. There are only eight teams in the league. Getting comfortable with the teams and their strengths doesn’t require a big investment of time or effort.

5. Early start to the season. The regular season starts at the end of June. The league can give you something to ease your football itch until the good stuff gets going.

6. Talent imbalance. Teams have a required quota of Canadian players, but the majority of the players, and most of the stars, are U.S. colege players who couldn’t find a home playing under brighter lights. Every so often you see a guy come up here who is incredibly good. Because the general level of play isn’t near the level of the NFL, an NFL caliber player can truly shine in the league. That’s very good news for bettors - those players give their team a huge edge in the right situations. Doug Flutie and Warren Moon were both legends in this league. Jeff Garcia was a star here with the Stampeders. This year, B.C. had a pass rusher named Cameron Wake. He has been in the league for two years, and he has been the league’s outstanding defensive player both years. He’s a 2005 Penn State grad who was undrafted. He’ll get a look in the NFL now after piling up 39 sacks in 36 games, including 23 this year. The guy is a machine, and he absolutely dominated this league. He gave his team a huge edge against weaker QBs, and that was very helpful for bettors.

After a couple of weeks that haven’t exactly been soaked in excitement, on paper at least, we have another classic week of college football. Here are the games I will be paying attention to. My remote finger will be getting a workout:

Michigan State (+16) at Penn State - The Big Ten doesn’t have a conference championship, but this is a de facto one this year. If Penn State wins they are the champions and headed to the Rose Bowl. If Michigan State wins then Ohio State goes (unless, through some miracle, Michigan wins tomorrow, in which case the Spartans head to Pasadena). There is going to be some good running in this game that will be fun to watch. I can see this one going a lot of ways. My first sens when I saw the line, though, was that it didn’t give Michigan State very much respect considering they are 6-1 in the conference.

Michigan (+20.5) at Ohio State - This one won’t be pretty, but I have to be loyal and watch my boys mercifully end their season. And heck, maybe they can pull it off - we did beat UCLA yesterday, after all.

Texas Tech (+7) at Oklahoma - THE game. I am literally counting the minutes until this one kicks off. There are lots of things I think about this one, but not much that I know for sure. I think, for example, that the Red Raiders have a pretty big edge defensively. And that the Red Raiders should be able to protect Graham Harrell despite Oklahoma’s potent pass rush. In other words, I think I think that Texas Tech is the real deal. By about midnight eastern time we’ll know if I’m right, or if I’m deluded.

BYU (+7) at Utah - The Holy War is always fun to watch, but it’s been a while since we have seen one with stakes this high. Utah has a spot in the BCS all but locked up if they can win this one. And they can. But it won’t be easy. there is a very good chance that this one is going to be a thriller.

Boise State (-6.5) at Nevada - This game starts a couple of hours before the Holy War, so Boise State won’t know its’ fate yet. Not that it has any control anyway. All it can do is win out, and win impressively. They need to clobber Nevada and then wait and see what happens. If that’s not motivation enough for a huge performance then this isn’t the team I think it is.

Pittsburgh (+5.5) at Cincinnati - Another virtual conference championship for a conference that doesn’t have one. The home team can sew up a BCS bid with a win here. If Pitt wins then things get really convoluted. It’s not like the Big East is particularly thrilling or relevant this year, so it would probably be easier if it just got over with in this game. Cincinnati is fresh blood for the BCS at least.

I am a fan of most sports, and particularly fond of several, but in my world the two college sports are king. College football is the perfection of fall, and winter is far more palatable thanks to college basketball. I like the NBA, too, but college ball is just so much better. I was just thinking about tonight’s games, and it got me thinking about why I like the sport so much. Here are ten reasons:

Anything can happen - My beloved Michigan, stuck in the depths of basketball hell for far too long, beat freaking UCLA last night. Strange things can and do happen all the time in college basketball. That makes being a fan brilliantly entertaining. And brilliantly frustrating.

Relentless volume - Dozens of games every night for months at a time. No matter what kinds of games you like to bet on, chances are very good that you can find one whenever you want to. No other sport offers the variety or number of games.

Playability - With so many games out there, the linesmakers can’t be right on every game, and several games each day are flat out ignored by the public. That means that there are all sorts of soft lines out there for you to find if you know where to look for them.

Drama - No sport has a higher proportion of crazy, intense finishes to games than college basketball does. Pure drama.

Imperfection - The NBA is often boring to watch because players are too good. Mistakes and huge inequities in talent are a big part of why college basketball is so compelling. It’s also why it is so much friendlier to bettors than the NBA.

The Tournament - Obviously.

Conference play - In college basketball, conference play allows us to be fairly confident about which teams are the best, and which don’t measure up. That gives it an edge over college football.

Freakish freshmen - Thanks to the foresight of the NBA, we have had the privilege of watching some truly freakish freshmen tear apart the college ranks in recent years - Durant, Oden, Rose, Mayo, and so on.

Tradition - College sports bring an intensity and depth of hatred to rivalries that the pros can’t touch.

Going to games - Living in Canada, I don’t get to go to a lot of college basketball games. I love it when I do though. The bands, the student sections, the cheerleaders. Awesome.

After taking a break of a few weeks, it is time to go back to my good old PlayStation 2. It hasn’t yet proven itself to be a brilliant handicapper, but it has had its moments. Again, I will have NCAA Football 09 simulate three games to see how it sees them play out:

Michigan State (+14) at Penn State - The Nittany Lions can wrap up the Big Ten title and an automatic BCS bid with a win here. If my machine is right then the Land Grant Trophy is going to East Lansing. The Spartans won a snoozer of a game 14-7. Penn State didn’t score until the fourth quarter. They were driving again late, but ran out of time. Penn State’s offense was lethargic - they couldn’t move the ball through the air, and Evan Royster was useless on the ground. Michigan State jumped out to an early hot start, but the middle two quarters were a defensive seesaw. Easy cover for Michigan State, and a nice moneyline payout, too.

BYU (+7) at Utah - The Holy War is always tense with hatred, and the huge stakes won’t do anything to change that this year. Quite simply, Utah wins and they are going to the BCS. BYU has won the last two meetings, but that streak ends according to my machine. The total was high at 53.5, but the PS2 forsees a surprisingly defensive battle, and one that BYU forgot to show up for - the final score was 24-7. Utah had almost twice as much total yardage, and they dominated both on the ground and through the air. BYU just didn’t seem to be up for this one, so Utah took advntage and cruised. They got up early, deflating BYU, and never looked back.

Texas Tech (+7) at Oklahoma - This one is for all the marbles. The winner stands a very good chance of going to the BCS championship (a virtual certainty if it is Texas Tech), and the winning quarterback stands a good shot at taking down the Heisman. It’s really two playoffs in one. And according to my machine it isn’t going to be pretty. Oklahoma ended the Texas Tech dream, and they ended it badly - the final was 38-3. Needless to say, Oklahoma dominated, and Sam Bradford ended Graham Harrell’s Heisman dreams.

So there you go - the machine says Michigan State in an upset, and easy covers for Utah and Oklahoma. I’d be happy if it was right in two cases, but I must admit that I am cheering very strongly for Texas Tech.

The bad luck continues at North Carolina. Already dealing with life without Tyler Hansbrough, they have lost another player - Tyler Zeller. He has a broken wrist that will likely keep him out for the season. Zeller is a freshman and a forward, so they won’t necessarily struggle to replace him. He was off to a good start, though - he was the leading scorer in his debut game against Penn. I’m not particularly superstitious, but it does seem like the Tar Heels are snake bit. Hopefully for them their luck turns soon enough.

Stephen Curry is an absolute freak. 44 points last night against Oklahoma. There is no question in my  mind - he is the best player in North Carolina. And yes, I am well aware of who else plays in the state.

Nice mutually beneficial trade in baseball today. The Royals picked up Coco Crisp from the Red Sox. That adds some power and moreso some speed to the top of their lineup - something they badly needed. He’s also a very good defender. It also frees up space for Jacoby Ellsbury to be an everyday player for the Red Sox. In exchange, Boston gets reliever Ramon Ramirez. Kansas City had picked up the fireballer from Colorado last year, and they used him very effectively to set up closer Joakim Soria. Both teams are better as a result of this deal.

Things could get ugly in the desert. Edgerrin James reportedly asked for his release this week. To the surprise of no one, the team said no. Why should they let him go to the waiver wire and join another team that Arizona might have to play when they don’t have to? They will almost certainly release him in theoffseason, but in the meantime the team had better hope that he keeps his disgruntlement to himself . This team is playing very well, and is improving every week, but they are fragile and inexperienced with leading a division or going to the playoffs. That means that a distraction like James could cause could really disrupt things.

Worst NFL Game of the Week - Given the way they are playing, Chicago and St. Louis are not destined to make a classic - the Rams are absolutely terrible, and the Bears are in a sudden and dire slump. This should get the Bears back on track, but it won’t be pretty. There is worse, though - Buffalo at Kansas City. The Bills showed the world new and creative ways to throw away a win on Monday night. The Chiefs have a few things going for them - in Tyler Thigpen they may have finally found the QB of the future - but there are so many holes with the team that it’s almost sad. Ugly.

Best NFL Game of the Week - Indianapolis at San Diego should be a great game, but the Chargers have ensured by their play that it won’t be. Carolina at Atlanta is a surprisingly good game with high stakes. The Jets at Tennessee pits two hot teams at the top of their games together. The winner, though, is one that would have been terrible last year. The Pats and the Dolphins meet in a game that could go a long way to determining a wild card spot. Both teams can look very good when they want to, and both obviously have flaws. This game could be awful, but there is a much better chance that it will be totally entertaining.

Game With Teams With The Most To Prove - Minnesota at Jacksonville. The Vikings need to keep winning to earn a playoff spot. Jacksonville really only has pride to play for short of a miracle, but they need to show that they have that pride.

Oddest Line - The Dolphins are favored against the Patriots. That’s justified this year - it’s only one point, and Miami is at home - but given where the two teams were at at this time last year this is an almost impossible situation to believe.

Best College Game - I wish it was Michigan at Ohio State, but that one’s a million miles from relevant or interesting this year. Instead, the clear and obvious winner comes from the same place that the best games have come from for most of the year - the Big 12. Texas Tech at Oklahoma will quite likely determine one of the teams in the national championship. It also should go a long way to determining the Heisman winner. Scoring won’t be in short supply. This could be a classic - another one from Texas Tech.

Filling Me With Dread - Michigan has never lost as many games as they have this year, they are 20 point underdogs, and they stand virtually no chance of beating their biggest rivals. Or even making it competitive for that matter. I feel no dread at all - nothing that can happen this year will bother me anymore. I am immune to disappointment.

Four Interesting Games Between Unranked Teams - Miami (+3.5) at Georgia Tech. The winner here is in very good shape to win the ACC Coastal and make the championship game. Very high stakes, obviously. Washington (-7.5) at Washington State. This game is so irredeemably bad that you can’t hardly avoid watching. It’s like a train wreck occurring right in front of our eyes again and again. Sadistic pleasure. Stanford (+9) at Cal. This is Stanford’s last game. They have five wins. Jim Harbaugh will be incredibly hungry to get a sixth win to be bowl eligible. Stanford needs that badly. Very badly. Tennessee (+3) at Vanderbilt. Another one for your sadistic side. Here we get to see just how far Tennessee can fall. Losing to a lowly in-state rival for the third time in four years would probably cause mass suicide.

Biggest Line - Tulane (+28.5) at Tulsa. Tulane has lost six in a row. They aren’t good. At all. Tulsa, formerly undefeated, is reeling. They lost to Arkansas, then backed that up by losing to Houston by 40, and giving up 70 points in the process. The fact that Tulane is an underdog by more than four touchdowns to a team struggling that badly tells you just how bad they are.

This is going to be a shorter than usual version of this feature. That’s not because I am feeling lazy. It’s just because we didn’t really learn anything on Saturday. Everyone who was supposed to win did their job. The BCS standings and the top of the polls are still intact and unchanged. Anything we did learn only confirmed things I already suspected - LSU and Alabama are frauds and the SEC isn’t the strongest conference, Miami is on the way back, and so on. All in all, it was the least educational week we have seen for a long time in college football. Next weekend will be much, much more interesting, though.

There was still a fair bit we learned in the NFL:

1. The NFC North is wide open. That much was certain as soon as we saw the Packers absolutely destroy the Bears. Green Bay had struggled badly on defense for at least two weeks in a row, so it certainly was unexpected that they nearly pitched a shutout against Chicago, and that they were virtually flawless. The three actual NFL teams in the division are now tied at 5-5, and every one has the ability to beat any other one at any given time. I’d give the edge to Minnesota I think, but I’m not at all confident in that.

2. Houston needs a QB. Matt Schaub may be fine, but he can’t seem to stay healthy. There is clearly a reason why Sage Rosenfels has been a career backup - he is not ready for primetime. The Texans have some very nice pieces - Steve Slaton is clearly ready to be an NFL feature back, and a pretty good one at that, Andre Johnson is as good as anyone, and Mario Williams is looking like a solid draft choice after all - but this team will never realize its potential until they get a new pivot. They should definitely join in on the Matt Cassel bidding war after the season, though they need to resist the temptation to overpay for him.

3. The road to riches was paved with the under this weekend. Ten of the 14 games played on Sunday went under the total, and another game was a push. Don’t think for a second that we are seeing a trend, though - last week just five of the 14 games went under. This is yet another example of how each weekend in the NFL pretty much has to be treated as a distinct, independent entity.

4. This is potentially not going to be an interesting stretch drive. Three conferences - The NFC East and West, and the AFC South - are all but over. The AFC West is getting close - Denver is up by two games and has a win over San Diego, the nearest competitor. At this point there is really only four teams in the AFC (five if Buffalo wins tonight) that are in the heart of the wild card, and four in the NFC. There will certainly be moments of excitement down the stretch, but this doesn’t have the feel of a wide open slugfest that other years have been.

5. A few teams and players I have to give begrudging respect to - the Giants ran for more than 200 yards in a game for the third straight week and proved that you don’t need a superstar QB to be a superstar team; Ryan Fitzpatrick rose above a terrible team to put together a very nice game - he completed 66 percent of his passes for 261 yards and a score, and he avoided mistakes. That shouldn’t be allowed on the Bengals; JaMarcus Russell wasn’t terrible. That’s a huge compliment for him. Unfortunately for the Raiders, Darren McFadden was terrible.

The ending of the Pittsburgh - San Diego game has all sorts of bettors crying foul. The total was 40.5, so the under was secure as the score was 11-10 with seconds left. What wasn’t determined, though, was the spread. Pittsburgh was favored by 4.5, and about two-thirds of the money was bet on them. Needless to say, the sportsbooks would have much preferred a San Diego cover. Hence the conspiracy theories.

As the clock expired, Troy Polamalu got in the way of a lateral as San Diego tried desperately to score the winning touchdown. Instead, Polamalu ran it into the endzone. That made the score 17-10, and the Steelers had covered. The things got crazy. The teams were leaving the field, but then were called back for the extra point. Before that could be kicked, the replay official called for a replay. The replay was watched, and the play was upheld. It should have been - the play was pretty clear.

But then things got strange. Before the extra point could be kicked, the officials huddled again. They decided eventually to overturn the replay and not count the TD. The game ended at 11-10, and San Diego had covered. Books breathed a sigh of relief and counted their profits. After the game, the head official admitted that they had made the wrong call, and that they had done so because they were confused about which one of the two laterals that happened they were talking about. That means that the score should have been 17-10, or 18-10, and Pittsburgh should have covered. Two-thirds of bettors feel robbed, and they probably are justified in feeling so.

To add to the feelings of a sham, the Steelers were assessed with 115 penalty yards, and the Chargers were only given five. When the NBA officiating woes were in the public awareness, we learned that one easy way to influence a game was to penalize one team far more than the other.

Let me first say that I don’t actually think that this game was fixed. It sure doesn’t smell right, though. It was subjected to absolutely brutal officiating, but that isn’t unique to this game. The bigger issue, though, is that it doesn’t matter whether it was fixed or not. The outcome stinks, and people know it. If people become frustrated by the league’s officiating and the impact it is having on games, or if they don’t trust the officials, then the league has a serious problem. Given the number of problems that there have been this year with officials, it seems clear that they league needs to take real action in the offseason to improve the perception of those who can control the outcome of games.