Maddux Sports Blog

There is a classic match-up on Thursday night in college football. That’s nothing new - the Thursday nights have been very good to us all year. This one, though, is a chance for a lot of people to see first-hand what the Mountain West has to offer (a lot, by the way). BYU travels to TCU in a game that will either significantly strengthen BYU’s claim to being a BCS Buster, or redeem TCU for a rough game against Oklahoma. The game started out with BYU favored by two, but has snce mved so that the home team s favored by as many as two. I’ve had this game crcled on my calendar for a long while now. I’ll leave the pick up to you, but here’s a look at three reasons you could justify betting on either eam:

TCU

Defense - TCU plays very good defense. Need proof? 19.1 That’s the number of rushing yards per game that the team has allowed. That’s ridiculous. They are solid on the pass, too. BYU will have its hands full like never before. Outside of the Oklahoma game, the defense has allowed just 45 points in six games. That’s just a hair over a TD per game.

Andy Dalton - TCU hasn’t looked good in their last two games offensively, but they have been playing without their starting QB. Dalton is no Heisman threat, but he can do his job well. He’s likely to be back on Thursday, and that will be a real boost for his team.

Line move - Three quarters of all bets placed have been on the Cougars, yet he line is moving to make them more attractive. That likely means that smart money is on the Horned Frogs. If you buy into that kind of thing then TCU is your team.

BYU

Defense - TCU is hyped as the defensive machine, but his team is pretty darned good without the ball, too. In fact, they are actually a little bit better statistically against the pass than TCU. Remember, this is the team that put up back-to-back shutouts this year. TCU isn’t a great offense at the best of times, and playiing this team won’t help improve that.

Style of play - BYU isn’t going to be able to run against TCU. No big deal, really. The Cougars run more than people think - Harvey Unga is on pace to break 1000 yards on the season. Still, the Cougars live and die by the pass, and they will still be able to pass. Oklahoma had no problem at all passing against TCU. If BYU’s QB, Max Hall, was playing for a BCS conference team he would be right near the top of the Heisman race. The guy completes more than 70 percent of his passes. Only six guys in the country have more passing yards after playing six games.

Streak - The Cougars have not lost since September of 2007. That’s 16 straight games. They have won three of their last four at TCU. This team is exceptionally well coached, and they know how to win. Given the line, all they have to do here is win.

Another week, another set of simulations from the PS2. It’s not the best way to pick games, but then it has probably at least as much merit as the methods used by most of the betting public. That’s why sportsbooks make lots of money.

Ohio State at Michigan State - I am surprised by what happened here, but in a very pleasant way. I really, really hate Ohio State, so any time they lose it is a good thing. That makes this a great thing. Michigan State jumped out to a quick lead when Javon Ringer broke a long TD run, and they never really looked back. The final score was reasonably close - 35-31 - but Michigan State never gave up their early lead, and Ohio State made it respectable only by scoring the last ten points. Terrelle Pryor was just okay, not putting up any of the eye-popping numbers that we are going to have to get used to in coming years unfortunately.

Missouri at Texas - I think my machine has a man-crush on Chase Daniel. That’s the only way I can explain what happened here. Daniel threw for seven touchdowns. Yes, seven. Colt McCoy had a pretty gaudy day himself, but it was nothing next to the Mizzou super-stud and, if the game has anything to say about it, future Heisman winner. Needless to say, Missouri was able to pull out the win behind that showing, coming out 59-35. The PS2 doesn’t have much respect for either of these defenses. My favorite stat to come out of ths one was that Daniel was bombing so much that he was making his defense work - the Longhorns won the time of possession battle by quite a bit.

Michigan at Penn State - I simulated this game because I obviously don’t like myself much. As a Michigan fan, I know that this one is going to go badly, but I wanted to see just how badly. Pretty bad as it turns out. As we have seen before from Michigan, they got out to a good start, opening up a 10-0 lead. Like they did against Illinois, though, they pretty much stopped there. Penn State scored, scored, and scored some more, and ended up winning a wild one 48-24. The only saving grace was that Michigan didn’t turn the ball over 15 times in the game like they seem to be so fond of doing this year. Still, not good.

So, there you go. The machine has spoken, and it has said Michigan State, Missouri, and Penn State.

Worst NFL Game Of The Week - No contest here. There are a few games that aren’t particularly interesting, but only one that is virtually assured to truly and epically suck. Detroit is terrible. The Texans have some bright points, but they aren’t ready for prime time yet. It’s a clear sign of just how bad this game could be that Houston is favored by nine. A 1-4 team should not be favored by more than a touchdown against anyone.

Best NFL Game Of The Week - Given the sudden resurgence of the Browns and the fall from grace of the Redskins maybe it is their game because we have no way of knowing what is coming. It could have been New Orleans and Carolina, but it lost some of its’ charm with the blowout loss by Carolina this weekend. That leaves us with San Diego at Buffalo. If the Chargers can look half as good as they did against New England ths weekend then this will be a very good way to get a sense of whether the Bills are contenders.

Game With Teams With The Most To Prove - Baltimore at Miami. Both teams have shown promise, and both are probably a bit better than expected, but both are at that point where they could either salvage a respectable season or things could get ugly. Both teams need a big performance here to recapture momentum.

Ridiculously Over-hyped - There really isn’t one that fits here this week. Have you noticed how the media and the public are finding it hard to find teams to hype this year? This is a crazy season, so it’s hard to figure out who to love, and as soon as you do you just end up disappointed.

Oddest Line - Dallas has lost two of three. They have covered once in their last five. Their soap opera unveils more twists and turns every week. Their quarterback is on the shelf for a month, and a guy who is old enough to have gone to college with Vince Lombardi is taking his place. It’s a clear sign of just how bad the Rams are that they are still 9.5 point underdogs here.

Best College Game - No contest here - it’s Missouri at Texas. The Tigers weren’t nearly as good as I expected them to be against Oklahoma State. The Longhorns had a second half against Oklahoma that I didn’t think they had in them. This is another measuring stick in the ridiculously tough Big 12.

Filling Me With Dread - I have no dread left in me for this year. Michigan can’t beat Toledo. We’ll get crushed by Penn State. I’ve come to terms with that. At this point I am braced for, and frankly expecting, 2-10. Anything beyond that is a bonus.

Four Interesting Games Between Unranked Teams - Western Michigan (+3) at Central Michigan. The MAC West is shaping up to be a dogfight. Ball State is ranked, but these two teams are right there with the same conference record. The winner here will be in good position to challenge. Stanford (+2.5) at UCLA. This one is only interesting for one reason - I’ll be siting in the 12th row in the Rose Bowl soaking up the rays and watching it. Any game is better when you are at it - even one with a team as bad as UCLA. UTEP (+17) at Tulsa. Tulsa shoots the light out in every game. No one plays offense better. UTEP doesn’t play defense, and they can score a bit, too. This one could go over 100. Or maybe 200. Georgia Tech (-2.5) at Clemson. Tommy Bowden is out on his ear. Finally. I expect the team to play much better than they have been this week just because they’ll be relieved to be rid of that idiot.

Biggest Line - USC (-42) at Washington State. The Cougars are really, really bad. I have a cousin who goes there. She loves her school, but even she couldn’t come up with a single reason to like this team. And that was before the team lost, and didn’t cover, six games. This game is ridiculous, but not nearly as ridicuous as the Cougars’ program has become.

As I write this I am watching Monday Night Football. It is early in the third quarter, and the Browns are up 20-14. This is why I love sports betting so much. On paper there is absolutely no way that Cleveland should be competitive in this one. They have been inept all year, their hottest offensive threat is in the hospital, their QB has been terrible, and they are facing the hottest team in the league. If you hadn’t been following the season, though, and you sat down to watch this game you would guess that the Browns are the juggernauts and the Giants are the ones who are struggling. The Cleveland offense is crisp and creative. Their defense is forcing Eli Manning to make bad mistakes and get out of rhythm. I still think the Giants will likely pull out the win, though probably not the cover. Still, this is the kind of game that keeps things so interesting - you would have had to have been psychic to have seen this one coming.

Speaking of interesting results that keep you interested, I assume you saw at least the score in Tampa Bay’s playoff visit to Boston. Wow. Again, on paper this one was as obvious as the sunrise. Tampa is a young team trying out this whole playoff thing for the first time, and they have to go to the single most intimidating  stadium in the American League. Not only that, but they have to face Jon Lester, the red hot stud of the Red Sox rotation. In response they were sending out Matt Garza, a solid starter, but not the team’s best or most reliable. This one seemed easy, and the -175 price fr the Red Sox reinforced that. So, of course, the Rays won it 9-1. It was 5-0 in a heartbeat, and Boston never looked een remotely good. I can’t believe I am saying this given the last decade of baseball, but I am increasingly confident with every passing second that Tampa is not only going to the World Series but winning it.

I can’t wait to see what happens on Wednesday night in the NLCS. If, that is, the Dodgers hang on and win tonight. It’s 5-3 in the seventh now. The Phillies have more talent but I don’t trust their pitching, and the Dodgers have that undefinable magic surrounding them that is so incomprehensibly important for playoff success. If and when the Phillies lose, this one is all on Ryan Howard - a former MVP cannot hit .160 in the playoffs. Just ask A-Rod.

Big Brown was injured in training this morning and has been retired. That means that he won’t be running against Curlin in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Sometimes I hate horse racing. Scalpers are not thrilled.

1. Convinced that the Big 12 is the best conference this year yet? The conference is so loaded and tough that they absolutely cannibalized each other this weekend. Oklahoma State was the lesser Missouri before this weekend, but for now at least that has been reversed. Texas spent a lot of their game looking like they were determined to lose, but finished on a vengeance and, strangely, claimed the top spot in the poll. For now the power structure of the conference is clear, but you get the real feeling that that could all change several times over this year, starting next week when Texas and Missouri meet.

2. Speaking of the Big 12, I’ve said this before, but I am struck by what a bright coaching future Bo Pelini has in front of him. Nebraska got crushed and humiliated by Missouri last week. This week they took a very good Texas Tech team to overtime. Over the last few years Nebraska would have pouted and self-destructed after the first loss, but this team has poise and confidence that the team desperately needed. A few years from now we’ll be talking like Nebraska like we did in the Osborne era.

3. Wow, does it ever suck to be a Michigan fan. I knew things were going to be rough, but every time it seems as if we have bottomed out we find a new low. Toledo? really? Ouch. I’m undyingly loyal to my team, but I may just check out for the rest of the year for the sake of my blood pressure, and find another team to temporarily cheer for. I could follow my wife’s lead and go for Minnesota. They are surprisingly good this year, and that surely can’t last, so maybe I should take it while it lasts.

4. I don’t know if I am impressed by Florida or disappointed by LSU. All I know for sure is that I don’t know what to make of the Gators. Some weeks they look like world powers, and other weeks they look like they are starting a long and painful decline (for reference see: Wolverines, Michigan). I have to pass on this team for now because I am confused and frustrated by them.

5. What now Bill Belichick? There wasn’t a whole lot to build on in that massacre. Two months ago it would have seemed ridiculous to ask, but how strange would it be to see a playoff cycle that doesn’t include the Pats? Very strange, but increasingly likely. Here’s a sentence I never thought I would write about any team, ever: It’s time for the Kevin O’Connell era.

6. Every time I see Jeff Garcia get a chance to start and lead his team to a convincing victory, and every time I see how confident and calm the huddle looks when he is in it, I have to ask why the guy can’t seem to get a job. There are at least a dozen teams in the league that would significantly upgrade their QB play by starting Garcia. He’s a ridiculously underappreciated talent.

7. They must be breathing a massive sigh of relief in Indianapolis tonight. For the first time all year both the offense and the defense had the swagger that has made this team so deadly over the years. Manning wasn’t at his very best, but he was as close as he has been since his injuries. Marvin Harrison was a threat again - something I thought might never happen again. The defense finally seemed to believe that it could function without Bob Sanders. It should be interesting to see if they can maintain this momentum. On the other side of the field, Joe Flacco, after being named starter for the rest of the year, showed how far from looking like a starter he is. It must be a very tough decision as team management to throw away a season to give a quarterback the seasoning that may or may not lead to brighter days ahead. On the other hand, it’s not like this was a tough choice for the Ravens - they didn’t really have a better choice.

8. Charlie Frye is not a good quarterback. At all. I would be hard pressed not to bet against him automatically any time Seattle hands him the ball. That’s not much of a risk, though - I’m pretty tempted to bet against Seattle any time they hit the field. They are 1-4 ATS, and that’s flattering to their play.

9. 26/30 for 320 yards and three touchdowns. Even if it came against the Raiders that is a ridiculously good line for Drew Brees. The Saints are 3-3. 6-4 down the stretch would get them to nine wins. If they hit that and Brees doesn’t lose his arm then it would seem at this point that he should think about building a trophy case for that MVP hardware.

10. The NFC North is a lousy collection of football teams. Chicago is fading, Minnesota is deeply flawed and horribly coached, and Detroit is a waste of oxygen. Green Bay has to beat anything resembling a good team before I have any faith in them.Ugly and, more significantly, boring group.

Texas (+6) at Oklahoma - These teams both have underrated defenses (though the Longhorns quickly need to figure out how to stop the pass), and quarterbacks that are pretty much as good as it gets in the college ranks. The stakes are incredibly high - the winner is the temporary king of the incredibly tough Big 12, and the loser quite probably sees their national championship aspirations end. On top of that all, this is one of the two or three most heated rivalries in the country, and the neutral ground and evenly split crowd gives it a special feel. This should be a great one.

Nebraska (+20.5) at Texas Tech - This one won’t be nearly as great, but it should be educational. Nebraska had a disastrous outing last week - so bad that coach Bo Pelini apologized to the entire state after the game. He’s new to his post, but he is a very good coach, so it will be interesting to see what he can do in a week to get this team back together. On the other side, this is another chance for Texas Tech to prove itself, and we get another chance to what this freakish offense.

Michigan State (-1) at Northwestern - This one is noteworthy just because a lot of people won’t remember the last time that Northwestern was actually somewhat compettive. They are on the verge of making the AP poll, and are in the coaches’ version. This is their biggest test, and our chance to see, against a pretty solid team, if the Wildcats are for real. It’s also a good chance to see what Javon Ringer is made of, and what he can do against a team that has so far been fairly decent against the run.

Penn State (-6) at Wisconsin - After a very promising start, the Badgers find themselves in a freefall. They’ve lost two in a row, and they have to be desperte to turn things around and try to salvage this Big Ten season at least a little. Unfortunately, to do that they have to find a way to beat the hottest team in the conference. Penn State is firing on all cylinders, and this is our best chance yet to see if we need to consider them nationally, or if they have just taken advantage of a reasonably soft early schedule.

LSU (+6) at Florida - There has been something missing with Florida this year - that indescribable aura that has surrounded them throughout the Urban Meyer era. Before now, you just knew the team was going to be in form whenever the team took the field. Now you just don’t know what you are going to get. They have, at times, looked as good and as bad as a team can. This is a stout test, and similarly a chance to see if LSU, a team playing better than most expected, is as good as they appear.

Oklahoma State (+14.5) at Missouri - These teams are eerily similar, but only the home team is getting real attention. They both have QBs who can shoot the lights out, and receivers who make it look way too easy. Missouri has yet to take a misstep yet, and seems to be one of the most complete teams in the country. The Cowboys are upstarts, but upstarts that could give a team serious headaches if they are taken lightly.

There is always all sorts of news about injuries in the sports news, but there is a particularly large amount today that directly affects betting decisions through the weekend:

Charlie Manuel: This isn’t directly an injury, but the Phillies’ manager lost his 87 year old mother today. He is staying to manage the game against the Dodgers. Manuel is very well liked by hos players, so I expect this to be a boost to the team. They will be playing for him. It’s also not that likely that he will be too distracted to be at his best - his mother had had a heart attack earlier in the week and wasn’t doing well, but he still managed a heck of a game in game one. I don’t know which team you like in this one, but I think that this is a check mark to put in Philadelphia’s column.

Carson Palmer: Cincinnati’s QB is out of action again on Sunday, and Ivy Leaguer Ryan Fitzpatrick will again get the start.This is a step down in QB quality, and that would be a real problem if Palmer and the offense had been clicking. They aren’t, so it’s not nearly as scary. Or at least it’s not in my mind. The public doesn’t agree - the line on this one has shifted by a full field goal today.

Brian Westbrook: The stud Eagles’ running back will be kept out of the game on Sunday thanks to the rib injury he suffered last week. Guard Shawn Andrews and receiver Reggie Brown are out. Of the three, Westbrook is obviously the biggest hit. The line is going nowhere on this one, so the public and the oddsmakers had already assumed this one was going to happen. As a Niners’ fan I’m not unhappy about this one.

Pacman Jones: Stupidity isn’t an injury, but this one still needs to be looked at. Jones lost his mind and did what he does best - drink and brawl. There was no charges laid, and the Cowboys have done what they would have been expected to do - turned a blind eye and let him keep playing. They really have no choice. Terence Newman is out, so Pacman is desperately needed to help contain the Arizona vertical game.

Kellen Winslow: This guy can’t get a break. The talented but injury-prone tight end is in the hospital being treated for an undisclosed illness. There is no word on whether he will be out of the hospital in time for the Monday night game against the Giants. I’m not sure it matters much, though. His absence would be a big hole, but I don’t think many people were giving him  much of a chance anyway, regardless of whether he was there or not.

Matt Hasselbeck: The Seattle QB has not been cleared to play Sunday against Green Bay, and it seems increasingly likely that he won’t. That means that the starting duties will fall to Charlie Frye. The former answer in Cleveland gets another chance. That’s not very inspiring, but then again neither are the Hawks regardless of who is under center. The line moved from -3 to -1 on the Seahawks early in the week, but has stayed there since.

My PlayStation prognostications got off to a terrible start in the first week, going 0-3, but it rebounded very nicely this week with a 2-1 mark. If you haven’t been following it, I am having my PS2 simulate three college games each week using NCAA 09. Let’s see what happens this week. The machine is feeling a little cocky.

Texas (+6) vs. Oklahoma - The Red River Rivalry is one of my four or five favorite games of the year. I don’t have a particular tie to either team, but as a general rule I hate Oklahoma less. Given that, the results of the simulation worked very well for me. Texas couldn’t get much going, and Colt McCoy made more mistakes than expected, as Texas lost to Oklahoma 38-14. Sam Bradford is my favorite QB in the country right now, and he showed why in this game, throwing for four touchdowns and running for a fifth. Texas turned it over four times, including two picks by McCoy. This game is such a big one, because it probably effectively ends the season of the losing team. Those stakes on top of the screaming, divided crowd should make this one a classic. My machine says Oklahoma will cruise to the easy cover.

Penn State (-6) at Wisconsin - My first thought when I saw this spread was that it didn’t give Paterno’s boys enough credit. My PS2 agrees. The spread HD has been a potent offense this year, and the prowess continued. Wisconsin got out to a strong early start, and was actually up 14-0 in the second quarter, but then the wheels fell off. Penn State had 31 unanswered points, and ended up winning it 45-24. Evan Royster was again a big part, adding 112 yards and two touchdowns. Daryll Clark had two interceptions that he probably wishes he could have back, but he made up for it with five TD passes. Paterno continues to prove that you don’t have to be able to walk or stay up past 6:00 p.m. to coach well.

LSU (+6) at Florida - The machine was loving the favorites so far, but the trend ends here. This was a hard fought battle that was more defensive than some might have expected, and in the end the Tigers lost, but just by a field goal - 17-14. Tim Tebow ran and passed for a TD, but turned it over twice as well. A further blow for the Heisman defense. Jarrett Lee passed for both LSU scores. Showing how realistic these simulations can be, the incredibly fragile and overrated Percy Harvin was injured in the game.

So, there it is. Covers by Olahoma, Penn State, and LSU - so says the wise machine.

The Breeders’ Cup is just over two weeks away. I’m going to be there, so I couldn’t be more excited about it drawing near. We’ll look at specific races in more detail as we draw nearer the event, which is at Santa Anita in greater L.A. on October 24 and 25. For now, though, I wanted to give a quick watch list for those of you who only follow the ponies on the big racing days in May and October. These are some of the horses that you’ll be hearing a lot about between now and the big days:

Ladies Classic

This race on Friday should be the coronation of the queen of North American racing. Zenyatta is one of the two best female horses in the world (the other is Zarava, the filly that just won the Arc de Triomphe). She is comfortable on the synthetic racing surface at Santa Anita, having just demolished Hystericalady, one of the prime contenders in the division, on the surface last time out. This four year old has never lost in eight races. She is massive, and has legs that never end. Outside of Curlin and maybe Big Brown, no horse on the entire card is as good as this filly. Anything can happen in racing, but this horse will almost surely be the lowest priced horse on the two days, and she’ll still be worth a look.

Juvenile Fillies

This is the second best head-to-head clash of the weekend. Two horses - Sky Diva and Dream Empress - are coming off races in which they made the rest of their opponents look totally ridiculous. Two year olds are typically tough to call, but this race is surprisingly one of the more formful ones on the card every year. Classy horses often come out on top, and this we certainly seem to have class.

Juvenile

It’s horses like Square Eddie that help make the Breeders’ Cup so fascinating. This horse spent the late summer campaigning in Britain. Paul Reddam, a prominent owner who has two Breeders’ Cup wins under his belt, saw the horse run in England at the beginning of September, was very impressed, and so he bought the horse. He flew to Kentucky on a Tuesday. That Saturday he went out at Keeneland and crushed a solid field in the Breeders’ Futurity. That race was run on a synthetic surface as the Breeders’ Cup will be. It’s hard to know what we have with this horse, but if you saw the race it is very hard not to be excited.

Classic

This is the one everyone wants to see. Maybe. All summer the connections of Big Brown and Curlin have been talking smack. Meanwhile, the horses have been mostly looking good (with the obvious exception of the Belmont for Big Brown). Curlin is clearly the best horse in training in the world. Big Brown is a freakish, though frustrating, talent. If they meet on the track there could be fireworks. Curlin wasn’t being aimed at this race, even though he won it last year, because his owner didn’t like the synthetic surface. Things have appeared to change, though. Curlin is working out at Santa Anita, it seems to be going well, and it looks good for the showdown to happen. I’m a huge Curlin guy, and I have the losing Kentucky Derby win ticket to prove it, so I know where my heart will be. My head says that it will be a classic. Pun intended.

Worst NFL Game of the Week - There are a couple that could fit the bill here. There’s an NFC North showdown between Detroit and Minnesota that doesn’t have a lot to offer. I know Minnesota is coming off a big Monday night win, but I am still stunned how a team can be outplayed that badly and still come out ahead. Detroit is just plain terrible. There’s another game, though, that I think has the potential to be even worse - the Holmgren Bowl. Green Bay is a struggling team - they lost to Atlanta, after all. Seattle’s just a mess. They won’t be at their worst because this isn’t in the eastern time zone, but they still aren’t very pretty. Two flawed teams in a funk meeting up - sounds like a recipe for a late afternoon nap.

Best NFL Game of the Week - Coming into the season it was clearly going to be New England at San Diego. I don’t trust the Pats, though, and San Diego is just coming off a loss to Miami. It goes from a must watch to one I’d skip if I got a better offer. In terms of pure fireworks, Dallas at Arizona should be fun - especially if you like scoring. I’m also personally intrigued by Carolina and Tampa Bay, though that might not be shared by most people.

Game With Teams With The Most To Prove - This is where San Diego and New England fit in. San Diego desperately needs to get their act together and prove that they are worthy of making the playoffs, never mind being a legitimate contender. New England needs to show that they are the team that beat San Francisco comfortably last week, not the one who got beat up by Miami in the previous game.

Ridiculously Over-hyped - There’s not really one that the media will get truly crazy about this week. The pick probably has to be the Dallas - Arizona game. The media has a lot to bite into here between Jerry Jones meddling with his bench during the game, and Kurt Warner rather publicly discusiing retirement.

Oddest Line - I understand that they are at home, but it seems very odd that a team that was not only beaten by Miami but thoroughly handled would still be favored by six over a New England team coming off a nice win. In my mind that’s a bit more respect than the Chargers have earned this year.

Best College Game - LSU and Florida will be interesting, and Oklahoma State and Missouri should have its share of fireworks, but there is no contest here. The Red River Rivalry, or Shootout, Or Showdown, or whatever we are supposed to call it now, is one of the great football rivalries. It is always interesting to watch, and especially so this year when Oklahoma may be the best team in the country, but we won’t know for sure until after this test. Both of these quarterbacks are at the top of their game, so it should be an offensive clinic.

Filling Me With Dread - Coming off an ugly, ugly win against Illinois, my beloved Michigan now plays Toledo. As rough as the season has been for Michigan, they should completely outclass Toledo. They are favored by 16.5. Given how they played in the last three quarters against the Illini, though, my real fear is that they will find a way to lose this one. That would hurt. A lot. I still have hopes for bowl eligibility - even if it means a meaningless pre- Christmas bowl - and thes is the kind of game we need to win to get there.

Four Interesting Games Between Unranked Teams - Minnesota (+12) at Illinois. A showdown between teams fighting to occupy the second tir in the Big Ten. Minnesota has played very well this year, and this is their chance to rpove that they are a changed team. To do that they will have to find a way to contain Juice Williams - no easy task. Notre Dame (+7.5) at North Carolina. Here are two overachieving teams. Only one can come out victorious. Obviously. The real difference here is that I don’t hate North Carolina. Arizona (-6.5) at Stanford. Arizona is putting together a decent season, and perhaps just in time to save Mike Stoops’ job. This is another decent test for them - the kind they need to win. Louisiana Tech (+7.5) at Hawaii. The Warriors showed a surprising spark last week in beating Fresno State. This s a chance to see if it was for real or just a fluke.

Biggest Line - Idaho (+34) at Fresno State. The Bulldogs are coming off an ugly loss to Hawaii. There are few better ways to break out of a funk than playing the Vandals. Despite the pathetic competition, Fresno State doesn’t inspire a lot of hope here - they haven’t covered n their last four tries.

A few things occupying my thoughts:

Monday Night Football is just a couple of hours away. I am torn in the game. The big thing that stops me from backing New Orleans enthusiastically is the loss of Sedrick Ellis. I have no idea what the impact of his absence will be, but I am very curious to find out. He’s really coming into his own, and he would have made it much harder for Minnesota to run. Since they can’t really pass, that would have been important. This isn’t going to be a classic game, but it is certainly an interesting one to consider. Talented but terribly flawed teams.

As I write this the Rays are running away from Chicago and look to be heading to the second round. I really can’t wait for their series against Boston. The home field will be huge for them, and I like their chances of going on. I wonder what kind of odds you could have gotten before the season started on a Rays-Dodgers series. Strange, but true.

I just read that Brian Westbrook has two broken ribs to go with his bum ankle. That’s a big blow for the Eagles. In my mind that puts them in the drivers seat to become the one NFC East team that doesn’t make the playoffs.

I laugh at Plaxico Burress. I’ve always thought he was a big baby, and that last game, with him out on suspension, sure didn’t do much to reinforce the myth of his irreplacability.

Rich Rodriguez ripped his Michigan offense for their inept play over the last three quarters, and the lack of desire they showed. Good job, Rich. That was embarrassing.

Mark Sanchez doesn’t have any structural damage in his knee. That’s good news. He’s sitting out of practice today and maybe longer, though, and he’s day-to-day for Saturday. I will be very interested to watch the line movement as things get closer to kickoff if his position is still unclear. As it is, a 25.5 point line against Arizona State seems pretty hefty. Think of how it would look with Mitch Mustain under center.

1. Alabama isn’t as good as we thought. I don’t like Kentucky much at all. This should be a rebuilding year for them. That makes it more than a bit concerning to me that they played the Tide as close as they did. Any team can have a bad day - just ask USC or Ohio State. My concern with Alabama, though, is that Kentucky was able to set the tone on both sides of the ball at times, and they were able to completely neutralize the passing game. That doesn’t bode well for a team that still has two or three tough games ahead. I know that they beat up on Georgia, but I don’t like them, either. My comfortable prediction - Alabama won’t finish the year in the top five.

2. The Big 12 is the best conference in the country. By far. Shut up SEC fans - I don’t want to hear from you. The Big 12 is loaded. Oklahoma and Mizzou have yet to take even a minor misstep. Texas Tech found their mojo in a big way this week. I have doubts about Texas that I think will come to fruition against Oklahoma this week, but so far they have been more than solid. Oklahoma State is clearly on the rise. Colorado and Kansas have issues, but both can do damage. I love the Big Ten, but there is no better group to watch, or bet on, than the Big 12.

3. Last weekend was an anomaly on the USC front. I can’t even begin to explain what happened against Oregon State, but I am confident that it won’t happen again. The team that shredded Oregon bore no resemblance at all to the one that lost to the Beavers. I might yet be proven wrong, but I now think that that game will be a momentary blip on a ferocious year.

4. Butch Davis is a very good coach. In only his second year, he has made North Carolina a legitmate team. In their last four games they have thrashed Rutgers and UConn, beat Miami, and narrowly lost to Virginia Tech. That’s a good month for any team, never mind one that has been as bad as the Tar Heels have been for as long as they have.

5. Okay, okay, okay. I admit it. The Titans are good. And the Giants, too. Just don’t ask me to like either of them much. Or trust them, for that matter.

6. I really, really misjudged the Redskins. I wrote them off before the year, and felt very smug in the decision after the first game. Since then, though, they have been the best team in the league. They have won four in a row against potental playoff teams. Most impressively, they have won consecutive road games against division rivals. That’s saying something in the best division in the league. Jim Zorn has to be high on the coach of the year list.

7. Seattle is doomed. Did you see a single redeemable thing they did today? There wasn’t one. Bad team, and awful at traveling. I can’t wait until their long trips to Florida - they have two left. I can’t help but think that the stupid situation around their coaching - Holmgren as a lame duck with Mora waiting in the wings - is damaging them.

8. The Lions are incredibly terrible. I don’t see how benching Jon Kitna is going to help, though. It’s not his fault that the team is so poorly assembled and ineptly coached.

9. The Falcons are making my head hurt. Every instinct I have is that they should be a year or two away from legitimacy. Yet here they sit at 3-2, with a win against a supposedly decent team this week, and a QB who is mostly solid. I respect the work they are doing, but I still won’t touch them until they beat a solid team playing well. That’s not the Pack at this point in my mind.

10. Norv Turner is a terrible, awful coach who immediately needs to find a job that has nothing to do with football. He is making a mess of the Chargers like only a few people on this planet could.

11. Matt Schaub just won serious job securty and he didn’t even play this week. There had been all sorts of calls in Houston for Sage Rosenfels, but his last three minutes of that Indy gamewere so indescribably bad that no fan of that team will want to see him ever again.

Once again, here’s a look at the games this week that are catching my eye. As always, I want to be clear that these are picked out because they have interesting storylines, not because I suggest that they are good bets, or that I am making a pick. When I am looking at games I definitely differentiate between the games that I am interested in betting and the ones I am interesting in exploring further. These games fit into the latter, and they are just fun to think about. Put another way - some games I only watch because I bet on them. These are the games I would watch whether I had any action or not.

Kentucky (+15.5) at Alabama - There is a strong sentiment out there that Alabama should be at number one. They humiliated Georgia last week, and they have looked absolutely flawless so far this year. As things go along it will continue to be interesting to see if they are as good as they look, or if they might falter at some point. Kentucky shouldn’t really be a strong test for them, but then this is a team that isn’t supposed to be undefeated at this point. Just ignore the fact that they have played a ridiculously soft schedule.

Texas Tech (-7) at Kansas State - The Red Raiders have been mostly deadly efficient, but they haven’t faced any hardcore tests at this point. Kansas State is hardly Alabama, or even Kansas, but they are a real team, and they can rise up and surprise teams from time to time. It will be very interesting to see if Texas Tech is up to the test, and what Graham Harrell and Michael Crabtree can do now that a few more people will be paying attention to them nationally.

Auburn (-3.5) at Vanderbilt - I’ve been very disappointed by Auburn. They weren’t great against LSU, and they have played two of the dullest games of the year against Tennessee and Mississippi State. Vanderbilt, on the other hand, has been surprisingly good. This is the best team that they have played, and this will be a good test to see just how good they are. They will have the boost of their home field fans, and that sure helped them against South Carolina.

Connecticut (-7.5) at North Carolina - This isn’t the first time I have said this - I love what Butch Davis is doing at North Carolina. He has that program going in the right direction, and in a hurry. UConn is ahead of schedule, too, and that’s also due to solid coaching. UConn is only barely ranked, but any win over a ranked team counts, so UNC will be playing their best. This one should be fun to watch. If nothing else, we can pretend that it’s a basketball game - this would be a classic.

Oregon (+16) at USC - The Trojans have a whole lot of redemption that they need to find. Oregon just needs to find a quarterback. Both of these teams have issues, but both will be very hungry to prove themselves and make something of a season that could get away from them.

Ohio State (-1) at Wisconsin - Before the season this game was circled as a showdown for Big Ten supremacy. Now each team has had a humiliating loss, and Penn State may very well be the best team in the conference. Both of these teams need to make a serious statement here to salvage some dignity and self-respect heading into the rest of their schedule. It will be very interesting to see which team s up to the challenge, if they both can focus when it matters here unlike they have done in the past, and whether Pryor and Wells will be contained or if they will erupt.

Missouri (-10) at Nebraska - I was more excited about this one before Nebraska went out and had a frustrating loss to Virginia Tech last week. Still, Missouri is as exciting as any team in the country when they have the ball, and Nebraska has a lot to prove under their new regime. The Husker fans will be fired up, and Bo Pelini will pull out all sorts of tricks for his biggest game as a coach. This one could be fun. It could also be a total shootout, and that would be fun too.

Time for a quick break from football to look at grown men beating the heck out of each other. Tomorrow is the third edition of EliteXC’s network television run on CBS. It’s also the second time on CBS that we get to/have to watch Kimbo Slice fight. He has had three fights so far. In two of them he was ridiculously dominant, and in the third he was mostly dominant but it took him longer to get the win and he showed that he ddn’t have anything approaching stamina. This time around he is fighting one of the all-time legends of MMA - Ken Shamrock. Shamrock was the first heavyweight champion in the UFC, and he’s had some all-time great houses. Unfortunately, the 44 year old Shamrock has seen better days. He’s till one of the scarier men on the planet, but he has lost his last five fights, and seven of his last nine.

Slice is at -400 in this fight, and Shamrock is at +300. My first reaction in this case would be to look at the underdog. That’s a pretty sweet price, or at least it would be if Shamrock stood a chance. But does he?

Maybe, but probably not. There are three big things going against him. First, he obviously been beaten on too many times. He’s old and the body just isn’t holding up as well as it should. Second, he’s not as nimble as he used to be. Slice isn’t light on his feet, but if he catches a guy and can land a shot then it is over. I don’t have nearly as much faith in Shamrock’s ability to avoid that shot as I would have a few years ago. Next, Shamrock isn’t particularly heavy for a heavyweight - 205 pounds. Slice is about 40 pounds heavier, and he’s ridiculously strong, too. Shamrock is giving up a big advantage, and that’s a lot to overcome.

It’s not that Slice can’t be beat. He seems to have a few potential Achilles’ heels. His stamina isn’t good, so if Shamrock is fit and can stay out of trouble long enough to go deep in this one then he could be in a good place. Similarly, if Shamrock can use his smaller size to an advantage and make Slice chase him around then the big man might not hold up. Slice also hasn’t spent a lot of time on the ground. If he has to go down in this fight then he would be facing a guy with much, much more grappling experience. Slice appears to have been training hard, and he’s working on his technique, but it remains to be seen if that practice can overcome experience.

So how does it boil down? As I see it Shamrock should have retired long ago. Slice isn’t a great fighter, but Shamrock has lost to guys who aren’t as good and who don’t pack nearly the punch. I don’t think Shamrock can keep up here. That means that Slice is the pick. That being said, I don’t see a lot of value in him at the current price. At -300 or -250 I’d have to think about it, though.

The Wild Card Boston Red Sox (95-67) meet the Los Angeles Angels (100-62) in the first round of the American League playoffs.  As is often the case, pitching is of primary importance. With that in mind, this looks to be a close series. Both clubs possess excellent starters and fine bullpens. But if it comes down to hitting, then the Red Sox’s vast firepower should win it.

The Red Sox pitching staff was plus-151 in Runs Scored/Runs Allowed (RS/RA) differential. Their team ERA was 4.01, which was third in the league, while the Angels, who posted a plus-68 RS/RA, garnered a 4.14 ERA, which ranked them fifth.

The bad news for Red Sox Nation is that Josh Beckett (12-10, 172 SO, 4.03) is ailing with a strained oblique and will not open the ALDS. Beckett, who is one of the best post-season pitchers around, is slated to start game three. Jon Lester (16-6, 152 SO, 3.21 ERA) will open the series, while Daisuke Matsuzaka (18-3, 154 SO, 2.90 ERA), who has been dominant all season, will start the second game. The bullpen includes dependable set-up man Hideki Okajima (62.0 IP, 60 SO, 2.61 ERA) and closer Jonathan Papelbon (69.1 IP, 41 SV, 5 BLSV, 77 SO, 2.34 ERA). There are some concerns about Papelbon, whose ERA is up from 1.85 last season to this year’s 2.34; his appearances in games are up by eight and innings pitched are at plus-11. The Sox closer has been fine but not as solid as in the past two seasons.

John Lackey (12-5, 130 SO, 3.75 ERA) gets the start in games one. The second contest will feature Ervin Santana (16-7, 214 SO, 3.49 ERA), while Joe Saunders (17-7, 103 SO, 3.41) gets the nod for game three. Santana, who led his club in Ks, has a keen fastball. Saunders notched the most wins and earned the lowest ERA in 2008. Set-up man Justin Speier (68.0 IP, 56 SO, 5.03 ERA) has been inconsistent. Closer Francisco Rodriguez (68.1 IP, 62 SV, 7 BLSV, 77 SO, 2.24 ERA) is one of the best around. He’s a tough competitor who’s capable of blowing away any hitter.

The Red Sox were first in OBP with a .358 mark and second in runs, scoring 845. Their team batting average of .280 was ranked second, while they were third in slugging percentage (.447).  Here’s a surprise, the team from Beantown was third in stolen bases with 120. Los Angeles could also steal, taking 129 this season, ranking them second. But their hitting is below par.  The team’s .268 BA was seventh and their 765 runs scored was 10th.

Second baseman Dustin Pedroia finished second in the league in batting with a .326 average. The hustling second baseman also stole 20 bases and hit a team-high 54 doubles. Outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury stole a team-best 50 bases, while first baseman Kevin Youkilis excelled in many areas, including leading the team in homeruns (29), RBI (115) and OBP (.390). Center fielder Coco Crisp hit .283, stealing 20 bases. Designated hitter David Ortiz had an off year with a .264 average and 23 homers. Left fielder Jason Bay, who came to Boston in a three-way trade that sent Manny Ramirez to the Dodgers, has hit .293 and knocked out nine homers since arriving in Boston. There’s depth on the bench and plenty of power on this team.

The Angels’ Vladimir Guerrero, who plays right field, hit 27 round trippers, drove in 91 RBI and notched a .303 BA—all of which were tops on the team. Third baseman Chone Figgins’ .364 OBP is the best around.  His 34 steals is also tops on the team. Garret Anderson, who plays left field, offers a .293 BA with 15 homeruns. Torii Hunter, who plays center, has hit 21 homeruns and holds a .278 BA. First baseman Mark Teixeira, who came over from Atlanta and has played in 54 games with the Angels, sports a .358 BA, 23 SB and 13 homeruns.

In fielding, Boston made just 84 errors, earning a ranking of 12th and had a fielding percentage of .986, which tied them for best in the AL. The Angels were not quite as good with the glove, making 91 errors and successfully fielding balls .985 percent of the time. The Red Sox injury report includes Mike Lowell, J.D. Drew and Josh Beckett.  All are listed as being day-to-day and each is expected to play. The Angels are healthy.

Boston was weak on the road, going 39-42, while Los Angeles went 50-31 at home and away. With home field advantage, no injured players and a tough to beat pitching staff and closer, this could be the season that the Angels take it to the Red Sox.  Then again, Terry Francona seems to know how to handle Boston in the post-season, while Angeles’ manager Mike Scioscia has been unable to beat the Sox in the playoffs.