Maddux Sports Blog

There’s a lot to keep in mind as we head into a big weekend of college and NFL action:

The Bills will be without three starters. The biggest loss in wide receiver Josh Reed. I’m kind of excited by his injury, though. I like him just fine, but I’m very interested to see James Hardy get the chance to see more action. This is a rookie I really like.

Not to be outdone, the Jets will be without linebacker and leading tackler David Harris when they play Buffalo. This should open things up a bit for Buffalo.

Jason Witten hasn’t been ruled out against the Giants yet, and it sounds like he may actually play, but with a broken rib his impact will be limited.

Another injury blow for the Colts - corner marlin Jackson is on the IR with a knee injury. He’s good, and the secondary doesn’t have a lot of depth, so this hurts. The pain is offset, though, by the news that Bob Sanders is ready to return to the lineup sooner than expected.

Tim Tebow is back in full health after playing with a hyper-extended knee the last two weeks. The strange part of this story is that Urban Meyer claims that he didn’t know about the injury until this week. I find that so hard to believe, and if it is true then something is wrong in Gainesville.

Jim Mora already has a contract to be the coach of the Seahawks next year, but the Universty of Washington has a new coaching vacancy, and the former UW player is on the record saying that the Huskies gig is his dream job. There will be interesting drama to watch in the Pacific Northwest. A statement from the Hawks said Mora s not a candidate. That, of course, means nothing.

I don’t know what is going on in Florida State (actually I do - chaos spawned by a coach who should have retired years ago), but they have serious issues in the receiver corps. For the second straight week they have suspended a receiver. This time it is Corey Surrency. I had high hopes for Surrency, a junior college transfer who had three touchdowns in his first two games to justify his spot on my watchlist. Since then, though, he has been mostly invisible.

C.J. Spiller is due to return to action for Clemson. There were high hopes for the running back coming into the season, but he has been out of action since Oct. 9.

We’ll take a break from regular programming for one more day to celebrate the end of the baseball season. It seems only fitting that we should take a look at what we learned from the World Series before we forget that it ever happened. After all, it wasn’t the most memorable series ever, as the TV ratings - the lowest ever - attest to.

Philadelphia is not a good place to play baseball in October.

Cole Hamels is going to be a star for a long time.

This team is not the Marlins - they have the talent and depth to be relevant for years to come.

Experience matters - this was far from the first time we have seen the less experienced team run out of gas when it matters.

Brad Lidge is a hell of a pitcher, but more importantly he is pretty much the mentally toughest guy there is. To put this year together after what happened to him in Houston is incredible. He deserves Cy Young consideration.

Joe Maddon shows flashes of genius, but they aren’t permanent. He made some awful decisions in game 5, part 2. He didn’t change pitchers when he should have, made a reliever hit or no good reason, and left his bats on the bench for far too long.

Pitching matters, but starting pitching depth isn’t crucial. The Rays had a far better rotation, but the Phillies had the ace, and the rest was good enough.

Tampa Bay has some work to do. They had a heck of a season, and they certainly deserved everything that they accomplished, but it wasn’t a coincidence that they got beat. They are a piece or two away from being a truly elite team. Maybe the interest in the team that this sparked will sell enough tickets to give them the payroll to add the bat or two that could help. A veteran star would make a big difference on and off the field.

Philly fans are hardcore. They had just won a much needed championship, but they were able to interrupt their joy to boo Bud Selig and the Rays. Always classy.

Bud Selig deserves to be booed.

Worst NFL Game of the Week - There are obvious reasons to look towards the Lions at the Bears. My favorite Lions stat - all but one opposing quarterback has set a career high for quarterback rating. Ouch. That one won’t be as bad, though, as Jacksonville at Cincinnati. Jacksonville is disappointing and full of problems. Cincinnati is so bad that T.J. Houshmanzadeh talked publicly about the possibility of a winless season. He guaranteed it wouldn’t happen, but still - If he is publicly addressing the possibility of imperfection then things are really bleak.

Best NFL Game of the Week - The Patriots at Indianapolis should be a lock for this honor, but there are too many issues on both sides to give it to them. I did like, though, how Bill Belichick talked trash about the Colts. Green Bay at Tennessee could be a good one, as pretty much every game with an undefeated team is this late in the season. Dallas at the Giants is a good old fashioned divisional grudge match. My choice, though, is the MNF tilt between Pittsburgh and Washington. These are two tough, well coached teams that will take this one to the trenches. It won’t be explosive or flashy, but it should be good fun for those of us who like hard-played football.

Game With Teams With the Most to Prove - There are two here. Houston at Minnesota features two teams that were supposed to be right in the mix but which really aren’t. The Jets at Buffalo is a battle between teams that need a win to stay in touch in a very wide open AFC East.

Oddest Line - The Giants are favored by 9.5 over the Cowboys. I’m not saying that this line isn’t legit (though my gut says it is a bit high), but it is almost impossible to believe that this is where we are at now given the widely held opinions of these two teams at the start of the season. The number isn’t a surprise, but the favorite is.

Best College Game - Shockingly, it involves Texas yet again. For the fourth week in a row the Longorns play an absolutely monstrous game with serious national title implications. They have to travel to Lubbock to play Texas Tech. Tough task, made slightly easier by the fact that the Red Raiders have shown about as much ability to play defense this year as the Broncos. Florida and Georgia is another obvious gem. The winner should pretty much secure a spot in the SEC championship.

Filling Me With Dread - Michigan plays Purdue this weekend. That’s two teams that really, really suck. The only thing I can tell myself is that our prospects for improvement over the long term are much better than theirs. It’s a sad statement on how bad things are that Michigan is actually an underdog to a 2-6 Purdue team. This season can’t end soon enough for my boys.

Four Interesting Games Between Unranked Teams- West Virginia (-3.5) at UConn. Winning the Big East isn’t going to mean much other than a bid in a BCS bowl that no one will care about, but both of these teams are very much in the hunt for that bid. Oregon (+3) at Cal. Though it isn’t likely, both of these teams could technically still win the Pac-10. They’d need a big win here to start, though. Fresno State (-4.5) at Louisiana Tech. The Bulldogs have endured a couple of tough losses, and their win against Utah State last week featured a last second 58 yard field goal. This team is never dull, and they need to win to keep their hopes of conference domination alive. Kentucky (+3) at Mississippi State. Both of these teams can be pesky and tough at times, and ridiculously awful at other times. This game could be great, or truly lousy.

Biggest Line - Washington (+43) at USC. The Huskies are absolutely, irredeemably terrible, and now they are playing with a coach who is just counting the days until they quit. This is a ridiculously massive line, yet there is absolutely no value in Washington.

We’re going to delay our regularly scheduled programming a bit this week in recognition of the start of the NBA season. I don’t generally bet on the NBA as much as other sports - I get most of my hoops fix from the college ranks - but I do love the league, and I look for intriguing betting opportunities daily. As the season gets underway, here are ten things I will be keeping an eye on as a bettor:

1. The Knicks. The team can’t help but be better since they got rid of Isiah Thomas, and Mike D’Antoni is a massive upgrade. D’Antoni is not walking softly, though, so it will be interesting to see how he is accepted. He cut Patrick Ewing Jr. even though Sr. is Knicks royalty, and Jr. had looked okay in preseason action. He’s not going to play Eddy Curry to start the season, even though he’s healthy and eager to play. This team needs a shake up, but it will be interesting to see how it works out.

2. The rookies. This is a spectacular rookie class. Greg Oden and Derrick Rose already look like they are ready to be stars. Michael Beasley has every chance to succeed. So do Kevin Love, Rudy Fernandez, O.J. Mayo… the list goes on and on. I’ll be watching very closely to see if the public’s perceptions of the budding stars differ, positively or negatively, from their contribution to their teams.

3. The Celtics. They played like a team possessed last year. This year they still have the talent, but they don’t have the urgency. It could turn out very well, or not so much.

4. Kevin Durant. He has a year of experience and a bit more help in his new home. People probably don’t expect much from the team this year, so if he avoids a sophomore slump and continues to mature then he could provide pockets of value.

5. The Bulls. As I said before, Derrick Rose is going to be a star sooner rather than later. He has a decent collection of talent around him, and a new coach that is a risk but has potential. The only major gap is a big man to go inside effectively. This team could be the most improved in the league from last year, or they could provide another disappointing season. Only time will tell.

6. The Timberwolves. If the Bulls aren’t the most improved team then the T-Wolves are one of two other likely contenders in my eyes. The team doesn’t have any proven stars, but they have a ridiculous amount of potential, and a lot of it - Al Jefferson, Rashad McCants, Randy Foye, Rodney Carney - could be poised to burst.

7. The Blazers. The third of three teams with massive improvement potential. It’s really an embarrassment of youthful riches for these guys. They have four rookies - Nicolas Batum, Jerryd Bayless, Rudy Fernandez, and obviously Oden - who have the potential to be all-stars later on in their career. Oden and LaMarcus Aldridge could quickly grow into the most feared front court in the league. Brandon Roy is already a star. The biggest challenge for this team will be getting everyone the playing time they need.

8. The Raptors. As a Canadian I am partial to this team anyway, but even if I wasn’t I would be intrigued by them. Chris Bosh and Jermaine O’Neal are a pairing with some risk, but the upside is tremendous. Around them are an unconventional but talented cast of characters. I don’t think that they are better than the Celtics, but they are pretty solidly the second best team in their division in my book. They fly far enough under the radar that they could provide value early on if they start well and bettors don’t notice.

9. The Sixers. This is the fourth team in the Atlantic that I have discussed specifically, and I have no real attachment to the grouping, so that really says something - this group is on the serious rebound. The Sixers are another team that I am excited to watch. Elton Brand joins a decent group and makes them much, much better instantly. They weren’t bad at all as it was at the end of last season. I’ll be looking to see how quickly Brand fits in, and how good they are. They should be in a great battle with Toronto for second place.

10. The Warriors. This one could get really, really ugly. No Baron Davis. Monta Ellis, their only real star, is suspended to start the season. A whole lot of rookies, but none who are anything other than green, or which are even close to being ready to contribute. Things could get really, really ugly.

1. The Big 12 is amazing. At the top, at least. Texas, Oklahoma, Missouri, and Texas Tech all won in impressive style. The latter three were explosive offensively, and Texas got a hard fought win over another impressive Big 12 squad in Oklahoma State. If this conference can manage not to cannibalize itself then it could do some real damage. The winner of the Texas - Texas Tech game this weekend should manage to make it to the championship game without a loss. Then it gets tough with the conference championship, but that’s another story.

2. Penn State is on the fast track to the BCS Championship game. They have three relatively easy conference games left, and no championship game to play. People may not want to see it happen, but it seems likely. Only Texas and Alabama can reasonably keep them out of the big game, and they both have places to trip up looming. It seems unlikely that both will make it through unscathed. That means that Penn State looks good. Hopefully they can do bet under the brightest spotlight than their conference mate did the last couple of years.

3. Speaking of teams heading for a date with the BCS, Tulsa is looking better and better every week. They crushed Central Florida, and they only have one real test left. They have to get past Arkansas this coming weekend, but that’s something that they certainly could do (the Golden Hurricane are favored by a touchdown). From there it is just three easy-ish conference games between them and 12-0. They are ranked too low at this point, but it would be hard to ignore them at 12-0.

4. Dave Wannstedt is not a great coach. He keeps finding ways to prove that. He’s much better than Ty Willingham, though - the greatest gift Willingham has ever given a team is promising to resign from Washington at the end of the year. Hopefully someone can come in next year to salvage the ridiculously talented Jake Locker’s career.

5. Mike Stoops might just save his job at Arizona. Sure, they lost to USC, but they sure looked good doing it.

6. Indianapolis is not going to make the playoffs. Tennesse is pretty good, but they shouldn’t be good enough to make the Colts look like that. Manning was okay, but he wasn’t precise, and his imprecision was very costly. This team just has too many flaws to be a contender. Seeing them on the sidelines will ber very strange. Kind of nice from my perspective,  but still strange.

7. Speaking of teams strangely headed for an early offseason, I can’t believe where San Diego finds themselves. New Orleans had dozens of excuses for losing that game, but the Chargers couldn’t make them use a single one. It could be a long year in the sun, and that could cost Norv Turner his head. That would be a good thing for that team.

8. The Cowboys were very lucky not to lose that game against Tampa Bay. They may have won, but they certainly didn’t play like a team that is going tokeep doing it. In other words, the bleeding is somewhat under control, but it hasn’t stopped. In fact, I’m not yet convinced that Dallas isn’t a hemophiliac.

9. I can’t help but notice, and take some perverse pleasure in the fact, that Chad Pennington is doing more for his team than Brett Favre right now. Karma is a bitch.

10. I think I still like Carolina a lot. Their blowout loss to Tampa Bay was more than a little concerning, but they have come back with two very nice wins since then. Only Tennessee has more wins this year. They’re positioned well for at least a wild card, and perhaps even more.

I just got back from the Breeders’ Cup, so I will hold off looking at what we were learned on the football front this weekend until I can settle in and get my bearings again. Before I shift my head entirely back into football, though, let’s just take a few minutes to close down my thoughts on the Breeders’ Cup. After months of preparing for the races, and a great, hot day enjoying them, here’s what sticks in my mind:

1. Zenyatta is as impressive as advertised. I only wish that she had been entered against the boys.

2. I have always been cynical about synthetic surfaces. I obviously am not opposed to protecting horses and their health. It’s just that  am not convinced that we have conclusively proven that synthetic surfaces actually do that. After seeing these races played out I am more convinced than ever that synthetics are not a force for the positive. The biggest story of the weekend was the surface - it decided which horses could win and which couldn’t. With one minor exception, all three top finishers in every race not run on turf was a horse that was either a turf or synthetic specialist. That one exception is Midnight Lute, and though he has seen his best success on dirt even he had a 2006 synthetic win. No horse that had found success on dirt - that means horses from New York, Churchill, Florida, New Jersey, Maryland, Dubai and so on - didn’t get a sniff of anything. It’s hard to accept this as a legitimate World Championships when the surface determines which horses have the opportunity to be World Champions or, more specifically, which one’s can’t. It also means that the horses that would win the three legs of the Triple Crown - all on dirt - would be in a significant disadvantage for a Breeders’ Cup run on synthetic. That’s ridiculous.

3. I had never been to Santa Anita before. My feelings were mixed. I had heard that t was a spectacular place. I partly agree. The setting is spectacular. The feel of the place when you walk in is positive. The food and drinks were poorly organized and faced with long lines, but that’s not the fault of the place. There is a lot going for it. Ignoring the surface, though, something just didn’t entirely grab me. I liked the track, but it didn’t even begin to touch Saratoga at the top of my pile for race tracks I love. I would like, though, to return to Santa Anita again on just a normal day to see what it is like when it isn’t faced with artificial pressures.

4. The energy and buzz of the crowd from the second the Turf was over to the start of the Classic was one of the coolest things I have ever been around in my career as a sports fan. The place was electric. Watching Curlin take the lead in the stretch, though, and knowing it wasn’t going to happen, was yet another crushing, soul sucking setback dealt out by a sport that can be very cruel to those who love it. I literally saw people cry. I also saw a lot of shockingly big win tickets on Curlin tossed onto the floor.

There are some very interesting games to watch on Saturday. No real barn burners that are guaranteed classics, but several that will teach us more than a little abut high profile teams. I won’t be watching any of them - I’ll be at the Breeders’ Cup watching Curlin run into history. At the very least you should watch some of the racing as you watch football. It will be worth it. Here are the games that stand out to me:

Texas Tech (+1) at Kansas - The Red Raiders need to keep winning to keep pace with Texas and give themselves a shot at an improbable Big 12 championship. Kansas can’t afford a loss if it wants to maintain any chance of conference relevance. The stakes are high. That always makes for a fun game.

Oklahoma State (+11.5) at Texas - It is no exaggeration to say that this is the biggest game in the history of the Oklahoma State program. A win here would be spectacular. There could be a chance of a letdown for Texas - this is the third straight week that they have played the biggest game of the weekend.

Georgia (+1) at LSU - Both teams have encountered speed bumps along the way, but if they keep winning they could be in position to pick up the pieces and end up in a very big bowl game. Neither team has been flawless at handling pressure, so they will have to show somethiing they haven’t been able to consistently.

Wyoming (+30.5) at TCU - TCU is coming off a dominating, shocking win against BYU last week. Now they play a team they can beat in their sleep. How they perform will be very illuminating - can the coach keep them focused, or will they be too busy reading the headlines to play as well as they have shown they can?

Colorado (+24) at Missouri - A couple of weeks ago Missouri looked as good as any team in the country. After two straight rough losses, though, they are reeling. Colorado showed against West Virginia that they can surprise a team that isn’t in top form. The Tigers badly need to rebound and make a strong statement.

Penn State (-2) at Ohio State - This is the biggest game that will be played in the Big Ten this year. The winner will almost certainly win the conference and head to the BCS. Penn State hasn’t been this competitive in a while, and they haven’t ever had real success in Columbus. This has to be close to the last year of the Joe Paterno era. There would be no better statement to make than putting the Buckeyes in their place.

The biggest race on the Breeders’ Cup card, and one of the two or three biggest in the world, will crown the second day of racing’s biggest festival. This year’s version might not have the depth that other year’s has had, but it has all the star power at the top anyone could want. Curlin has won more money than any horse ever has, and he has beat top horses on tracks around North America and in Dubai. He has lost just once since the Haskell last year, and that was a game second in his first and only try on the turf. He’s racing royalty - the best of hs generation.

Handicapping this race comes down to just one thing - do you want to believe in Curlin or not? The price for the favorite will be so low - likely even money or lower by post time - that you won’t be able to both back him and hedge him with other horses. In my book he’s a sound bet, and my money will be on him. In fact, I expect a big win from him over a solid but not overwhelming field. There are several reasons, not the least of which is the emotonal attachment I have had to the horse since before the Derby last year, that I will be backing him. Among them:

1. He just wins. Distance, track, competitors - it doesn’t matter. Even on the turf, a surface he clearly didn’t take to, he fought as hard as he could. We will get a full effort from him tomorrow, and that full effort should be more than enough.

2. The surface. Curlin has never run on a synthetic surface, and there has been some concerns that he might not be suited to it. I don’t buy it at all. His sire, Smart Strike, has proven to be very good at producing synthetic runners. He has trained very well over the Santa Anita surface, and I don’t expect it to be an issue at all.

3. The field. Who’s going to beat him? There are a lot of nice horses in the race - Tiago, Colonel John, the Euro’s, Student Council and so on - but none of them on their best day can touch Curlin on his. He’s run in bigger races than the others and he has won them. This is the current Breeders’ Cup and Dubai World Cup champ. That’s no fluke.

I’ll have Curlin to win, and perhaps on top of a few exotics. Those won’t be as attractive as they could be, though, since the low price and the fact that everyone will have hm eyed on top will limit the return. In the end, a straight win bet might be the best way to maximize return while minimizing risk.

We’ll look at the Classic in detail tomorrow, but today I want to look at three of the higher profile races to be run on Saturday - the Sprint, Juvenile, and Turf.

Sprint

This is perhaps he most wide open race on the whole card - no horse seems to want to make a claim to this one. Five horses in the nine horse field are 6/1 or lower. The current second choice, at 7/2, seems like he could be the favorite by post time. That’s Midnight Lute, the defending Sprint champion. The public will love his past success, and normally he’d be an attractive horse, but this Bob Baffert trainee has had an odd year. He has run just once, and it was a disaster. He can’t be written off, but he has too many question for my taste. The current favorite, at 3/1, is Street Boss. He makes solid sense here. He’s California based, he has trained well at Santa Anita, his stalking style suits the track well, and he has six wins and two seconds in eight tries this year, including three graded stakes wins. As a Canadian I have to like the Canadian horse, Fatal Bullet, as well. He’s at 6/1, and he presents good value at that price. He has won his last three races over synthetic surfaces, and he has set two track records in that time. My tickets haven’t been firmly established for this race, but they will feature the last two horses mentioned prominently. I’ll also probably look at Cost of Freedom at 4/1. This former claimer has won over Pro-Ride. Not many horses on this whole card can say that.

Juvenile

This race is notoriously hard to figure out, and this is no exception. The favorite in the 13 horse field is Todd Pletcher’s Munnings at 7/2. I don’t like this horse much, and I’m willing to rule him out at that price without too much concern. Instead I will be looking towards a couple of California based horses - Midshipman at 5/1 and Street Hero at 6/1. California horses make sense here - they have finished first and second in every BC Juvenile race run at Santa Anita. Street Hero is coming off a win in the Norfolk, and he has been training like a champ at Santa Anita. Midshipman hasn’t been as sharp recently, but he’s a Bo Baffert trainee, and Baffert doesn’t like to show what he has before a big race, so that doesn’t mean anything. An interesting horse is Bushranger. He is physically imposing and he’s training well, but he’s a European invader. This race is generally not kind to shippers, especially ones from long distances coming to California. I likely won’t have him on top, but he’ll find his way into my exotics.

Turf

This race is full of old timers who have had glory days in the past. Better Talk Now and Red Rocks are both past Turf winners, and others have been in the race before. The favorite, 7/2 Soldier of Fortune, is coming off a third place showing in the Prix De L’Arc De Triomphe. That race was only at the start of October, so the horse could be burned out. He has only run three times this year, though, and he is getting a big upgrade in jockey talent this time out, so he is a legitimate contender. This race is obviously a good place to look at the Euros, and another one that stcks out is Conduit. This one is interesting because he wasn’t expected to be here. His trainer, Michael Stout, is notoriously conservative, but he has won the Turf twice sohe knows his game. The fact that the horse is here makes him worth a look at 6/1. Eagle Mountain is an interesting case that I won’t be touching. After breaking his pelvis last year he has run just once - a win in Dubai in October. It’s hard to know what he’ll show us, but we know he will be well prepared. Trainer Mike de Kock, a South African, has taken over the horse after the injury. He’s one of the few best trainers in the world.

Worst NFL Game of the Week - There are two solid possibilities here. Seattle plays at San Francisco. The Seahawks are terrible, and they seem to be in a spiral. The Niners are almost as bad, though there may be a bit of a boost thanks to the new coach. It certainly helped the Rams. Instead of that one I will go with one that is almost certain to stink - Cincinnati at Houston. The Bengals are awful, and Houston, though they have potential, have been inconsistent. The Texans are favored by 10, which is a sign of just how bleak things are in Cincinnati.

Best NFL Game of the Week - It should be the Monday night game between Indy and Tennessee, but  refuse to trust the Colts any more. Tampa Bay at Dallas should be another classic, too, but the faltering Cowboys have thrown a wrench in that one. San Diego at New Orleans is yet another one that could be good but can be trusted thanks to inconsistency. That leaves me with one I’m not that excited about - the Giants at Pittsburgh. Two smash mouth playoff teams should make for interesting play.

Game With Teams With the Most to Prove - Buffalo at Miami. The Bills need to prove that they are still an elite team, especially in the face of the recent resurgence of the Pats. Miami needs to build some momentum to show that they are actually making the progress that has been hinted at so far.

Oddest Line - The Jets haven’t been very good this year. There have been some highlights, but also some intense periods of blandness. It seems very odd to see a team this average favored by 13 points. Not that it isn’t justified - they are playing Kansas City, after all.

Best College Game - Oklahoma State at Texas. This is a no-brainer. Two undefeated Big 12 teams, one of which is making a convincing case for being the top team in the country. In the last two weeks both teams have beaten up on Missouri. Now they get to beat up each other.

Fillng Me With Dread - I have no dread this week. Just the certainty that Michigan is going to lose to Michigan State. It’s easier to cope with that way.

Four Interesting Games Between Unranked Teams - Cincinnati (-2) at UConn. A showdown between the top second tier Big East teams. The winner could be positioned for a solid bowl. Illinois (-2.5) at Wisconsin. The Badgers are going through an incredible freefall - from the number eight seed to 3-4 in just a month. It’s like a train wreck you can’t turn away from. Wake Forest (+3) at Miami. Interesting ACC showdown. It won’t likely be fun to watch, but it will be interesting to analyze. Boston College (+3) at North Carolina. Two surprisingly good teams looking to maintain the momentum.

Biggest Line - Wyoming (+31.5) at TCU. The Cowboys aren’t good. The Horned Frogs flexed their muscles against BYU. It’s not a wonder this one is so one-sided.

Tomorrow we’ll do our weekly look ahead at the weekend football action. Thursday we’ll look at three of the more interesting races on the BC card, and on Friday we’ll take a look at the Classic. Today, though, I’ll look at eight different things that are catching my attention as the Breeders’ Cup draws near:

1. The post position draws happened today. There wasn’t a lot to notice - I think post position is, for the most part, grossly overrated. I don’t see any horses on the card that I used to like but don’t any more as a result of the draw.

2. Best price - Well Armed in the Dirt Mile was installed at 3/1 on the morning line. There is obviously no such thing as a lock, but this horse comes as close to one as there is on this card. If this price stays anywhere close to 3/1 I will be all over it.

3. Worst price - I love Zenyatta, and I really like her chances of winning the Distaff (I refuse to acknowledge the new name - way too lame), but there is no way a horse should ever be at 3/5 in a field this deep and talented.

4. The track - at the start of the meet the track was favoring horses coming from just off the pace. Last week it favored front runners. The lesson? We have no idea what the track is going to do. My advice? Ignore it completely.

5. Curlin is at 7/5 in the Classic. Just two others from among the 12 contenders are in single digit odds. My first reaction is that Curlin is underpriced. That being said, I become increasingly certain as time draws near that I will be incapable of betting on anyone other than the defending champ. There are a few horses that force me to lose all objectivity. This is one such horse.

6. Early weather forecasts are for hot, sunny weather. Unlike last year, the weather isn’t going to be a factor.

7. The Sprint is an absolute mess. There are nine horses in the field. Four of them are at 4/1 or less. Another is at 6/1. The best way to handicap this race is going to involve a dart board.

8. Least inspiring favorite - Munnings in the Juvenile. He’s at 7/2, but it is hard to believe he’ll be near there by post time. I’ll be surprised if Square Eddie isn’t favored by post time.

We’ll start our look at the Breeders’ Cup by looking at the races that the public is likely to have a clear opinion on. The Classic will fit into this category thans to Curlin, but we’ll leave that one until later. These are the races that you’ll either want to single in your exotics or look for a way to beat the favorite. As it turns out, the two likely no-brainers both fall on the Friday card. You could argue that there are a lot of gender-based reasons for that, but I think that it is just a coincidence.

Filly and Mare Sprint - Indian Blessing. This horse would have been heavily considered in the open Sprint, so she is destined to be a strong favorite here. She has never lost at this race’s distance of seven furlongs, she is versatile, and she is well trained for big days by Bob Baffert. She’s familiar with the pressure and intensity of Breeders’ Cup after a big win in the juvenile fillies last year. She’s trained well, she’s run well, and she’s not against a hugely deep field. She will be hard for most people to look past.

Ladies’ Classic - Zenyatta. This race, formerly known as the Distaff, is deep and full of top horses like Hystericalady, Ginger Punch and Bear Now. None will get any attention, though, thanks to Zenyatta. She’s unbeaten, she loves California and the synthetics, and she is a gigantic monster. She is destined to be one of the shortest two or three favorites on the card. Critics will point out that she has never really faltered this year so she may be due for a setback. Or they may suggest that her closing style doesn’t suit the Santa Anita surface. Or they will point out that there are too many other good horses in this field for one to be so heavily backed. All of those may be reasons for concern, but none of them are going to resonate with most people. They’ll see that the number of wins is the same as the number of starts, they’ll see how physically impressive she is, and then they’ll be hooked.

Another week of football. That means another week of lessons learned. I’m on vacation in California leading up to the Breeders’ Cup, so the biggest lesson I learned today is that Joshua Tree is a really, really cool place. Crossroads Cafe - best bacon cheeseburger in the state. I haven’t tasted them all (though I would love to), but I am still confident of the claim. Despite the trekking through the desert and the eating of burgers, I did manage to fit some football time in, too. Here’s what sticks out:

1. Texas is good. I have to admit this finally. I have been a skeptic, but in consecutive weeks they have dismantled Oklahoma (in the second half, at least) and Missouri. I now have no real choice but to admit that they are the best team in the country. Of course, that pronouncement has been the kiss of death for USC and Oklahoma.

2. There is hope for UCLA. Yesterday my wife and I sat in the hot sun in the Rose Bowl watching UCLA beat Stanford. It was a sloppy game on both sides, and neither squad is ready for prime time. There are reasons for the Bruins to be optimistic, though. They were down by four with just over two minutes left, and they were pinned deep on a punt. They drove 87 yards for an impressive score to get the win. Rick Neuheisel has a big job ahead of him, but this was again proof that he is on the right track. Seeing a game in the Rose Bowl was a thrill, by the way.

3. BYU was hugely disappointing. I have no idea how to explain that performance, and I’m not even going to try to fgure out how they will bounce back.

4. Penn State raised some questions. Coming into ths weekend I was confident that Penn State was the class of the Big Ten. Now I’m not so sure. They blew out Michigan (who doesn’t these days?), but it took them well over a half to get going. If they struggled this badly here then it is hard to no what they will do against Ohio State and the like.

5. Washington State might be the worst team in the country. They lost 69-0 to a conference rival at home. I’m not going to spend any more time explaining the statement.

6. The Cowbys are cooked. From the best team in the league to losing to the Rams by 20 in a month. I’ll be shocked if Wade Phillips last the year. His replacement is already on staff, after all.

7. Jeff Garcia is a hugely underrated QB. I keep saying that, but that’s because he keeps winning. Tampa Bay is automatically worth a serious look any time he starts.

8. Double digit underdogs were 8-0 ATS coming into this week. They were 2-1 ATS this week thanks to a Seattle TD in garbage time. Very interesting.

9. The Saints were shut down totally on offense ths weekend, and Reggie Bush will miss at least next week’s game to have a date with Dr. James Andrews for his knee. So much for the playoffs in N.O.

10. Has there been an elite team in recent history that is as ridiculously inconsistent and untrustworthy as the Chargers? Oh yeah, maybe the Colts this year. Those are two franchises with serious woes.

Texas Tech (-21) at Texas A&M - This one should be a one-sided mess. What I want to see, though, is how the Red Raiders bounce back from barely scraping by Nebraska. I like this team, and I want to believe in them, but they run the gauntlet in their next four - Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma State, then Oklahoma - so they need to prove that they are up for that challenge. A dominating performance here would help. I especially want to watch their defense - they should be able to shut down the Aggies completely, but only if they tighten up on what they have done for the last few weeks.

Vanderbilt (+16.5) at Georgia - I don’t really believe in Georgia, so this one is a chance for them to prove me wrong. Vandy was a fun story early on, but they are coming off a game n which they had 107 total yards. How is that even possible? They need to bounce back in a big way, or the progress they have made this year will be discounted.

Colorado State (+21) at Utah - After BYU forgot to catch their flight to TCU on Thursday, Utah stands as the lone team in the MWC with a shot at busting the BCS. This game is no challenge for them, but I will be looking closely to see how they react to that extra pressure now and in the next few weeks.

Kansas (+20) at Oklahoma - What’s not to like about this one. Oklahoma was embarrassed in a terrible second half last week, and they need to rebound to prove that they are still legitimate contenders. Kansas has flown as much under the radar as a tough 5-1 team can because the Big 12 is so deep. The Jayhawks are getting absolutely no respect here from oddsmakers or bettors. This game will tell us if that is justified or not.

Ohio State (+3.5) at Michigan State - This is certainly not what this line was expected to be at the start of the season. The Spartans are better than most thought, and the Buckeyes are much worse. One of these teams, though, is the second best team in the conference behind Penn State. This is our chance to find out which one.

Missouri (+4) at Texas - Despite what they did last weekend I have a hard time believing that Texas is the best team in the country. I also have a hard time believing that Mizzou lost to Oklahoma State. This game will tell me a lot about both teams.

The Breeders’ Cup advance entries were released on Thursday. That means that we have a first sense of whichhorses are heading for which races. We’ll look at the races in more depth next week, but for now let’s look at a few horses that first caught my eye because they land in interesting spots:

Indian Blessing - Last year’s two year old champion filly is entered in the filly and mare sprint, and she will be heavily favored if she runs there. I hope she doesn’t, though. She has also been entered in the Sprint, and I would love to see what she can do against the best open competition. It would be very fun to watch, too. She is trained by Bob Baffert, the most interesting trainer in the sport. He is always good for a quote. That would especially be the case this year, since Baffert also trains Midnight Lute, last year’s Sprint winner, and one of the top horses in a relatively weak feld his year.

Zenyatta - The monster filly has scared off a lot of competition, but she heads a heck of a race. Just eight horses are entered in the former Distaff, and even though the field is very talented, Zenyatta will be a heavy favorite. She should be, and I can’t wait to watch her. My only regret is that Zenyatta wasn’t cross-entered in the Classic. I would love to see what she could have done there.

Euro invasion - Sooner or later a European horse is going to come over and win the Classic. This could be the year - Curlin has never seen the surface, and Europeans know synthetic surfaces. They send over three impressive horses, too. Duke of Marmalade and Henrythenavigator are both trained by the great Aidan O’Brien. They have nine groups 1 wins between them, and are as solid and rested as big time Euro horses have been in a while for this race. Neither of those horses is pre-entered anywhere else, so they are going to be in the race for sure. Raven’s Pass, a big rival of Henrythenavgator, is coming too. He’s also entered in the Mile, but is likely to stay in the Classic. The Classic field took a hit with the loss of Big Brown, but it shapes up as a fascinating and surprisingly deep field.

Better Talk Now - I don’t give this horse much of a chance in the Turf, but I respect him immensely. This guy won the Turf way back in 2004, and he’s still going at a high enough level to try now.  That’s incredible for North American horses. Unfortunately, the nine year old doesn’t have a win this year. Still, you get points just for showing up in my books, and that means that this horse has a whole lot of points.