Maddux Sports Blog

I said I wasn’t going to do it, but in the end I found myself watching a fair bit of the All-Star game. I even enjoyed it. The league almost got itself into a big pickle, though, with the way it ended. Or almost didn’t end. After they took steps to avoid a recurrence of the ridiculous tie of 2002 it almost happened again anyway. Because of that, and just to make the game more interesting in general, here are a few changes I would recommend that they make to the game. I don’t think that it needs a major overhaul, but since it is an exhibition game anyway these tweaks could make the game more interesting.

1. Let pitchers bring their catchers. The most interesting part of the game is watching the stud pitchers make unfamiliar batters look ridiculous. That happened a fair bit last night, but it would happen even more if guys were throwing to their own catchers. That way the pitch calls would be more aggressive, and the pitchers would be more comfortable. You could still elect catchers to the team and you could let the elected catchers bat, but this change would make the game more watchable.

2. Give pitchers more flexibility. The desire managers have to get as many players into the game as possible forces them into bad decisions. For example, Terry Francona pulled out K-Rod after just one out because he felt the need to make sure that Mariano Rivera got to pitch in front of his hometown crowd. K-Rod still had lots of juice left in his arm, but he was out of service. Because this is an exhibition game, the simple fix is to change the rules so that a pitcher can leave and re-enter the game. There is no reason why K-Rod couldn’t have been available again later on in the game if needed. The same goes for Brian Wilson on the National side - he only lasted two-thirds of an inning. It also goes for any of the eight starting pitchers who only pitched for an inning. This would ensure we would never again have to live in fear of a tie.

3. Fold the Yankees. This is a pipe dream, but it would definitely help both the all-star game and the league in general.

I’m going to avoid talking about the All-Star game before it happens because, well, it bores the hell out of me. I love baseball as much as the next guy, but I don’t think it lends itself particularly well to an exhibition format - especially one that none of the players really care about. If pitchers were all supposed to only pitch an inning a game then they’d all be called closers, and each team would have 18 of them. If I had to I would bet on the American League, but I would rather bet on cricket.

While I am avoiding that topic I need another, and I want to revisit something I discussed yesterday - my nemesis, Peyton Manning. There are a few more details coming out of Indianapolis about his situation, and it makes for some interesting pondering.

Given how private Manning and the Colts usually are, it struck me as odd that a story appeared in the Indianapolis Star suggesting that Manning might miss the first game of the season. That struck me as the kind of thing that doesn’t appear accidentally. Even though the team has repeatedly said Manning will be ready, the article struck me as potentially a way to at least advance the possibility that he won’t be. It also points out a problem that Indy has had ever since Manning arrived in town - he pretty much has to stay healthy because they have no other options. Let’s play a little game. Which one of these guys isn’t an Indy backup - Jim Sorgi, Ryan Dawson, Josh Betts? It’s Dawson, but you probably had to think about it, didn’t you? Manning has been ridiculously healthy, but that may not last in this league. Brett Favre is obviously a complete fluke, not a guy to model a franchise after.

Sorgi has obviously never had a start, and he has never played meaningful time in a game that matters when it was on the line. Betts replaced Ben Roethlisberger at Miami of Ohio, but he was undrafted when he graduated. He’s never appeared in a regular season game, and he spent his first season on the practice roster. Neither guy is anywhere close to ready to step in and fill in if Manning isn’t ready.

I really don’t understand why the Colts would put themselves in a situation like this. It makes no sense for their team, and it is very frustrating for bettors - at least teams with an adequate backup might present some value if the starter is hurt. The public will immediately bet any value out of a Manning-less Colts game.

Just one final thought. How excited to do think that the Colts organization would be about opening their fancy new stadium against the Bears on national TV with Sorgi under center. No one will be cheering for him to get healthy more than owner Jim Irsay.

We learned  couple of things from the Home Run Derby tonight - it can incredibly entertaining, and the overall format is flawed. Watching Josh Hamilton’s tour de force was one of the coolest things I have done in a long while. The problem, though, is that no one cared about the result after that all happened. Justin Morneau is a fellow Canadian, and I am proud of him for coming through, but he didn’t deserve to win, and no one cares that he does. Instead of making it a three round contest like it is which just tires out batters and pitchers and rarely builds to a dramatic finish, it is time they tweak it a bit. They should invite a few more guys to participate, give each guy a few more outs, and just have one round. It didn’t matter what happened after Hamilton did his thing, so the format should be such that he didn’t have to do anything. The way it is now, Morneau hit fewer home runs in three rounds than Hamilton did in one, and he still won.

Interesting news out of Indianapolis today - Peyton Manning had knee surgery to remove an inflamed bursa sac. He’s been trying to recover since February, but surgery finally became the best option. He is expected back at his best in four to six weeks, and his consecutive game streak shouldn’t be threatened. It is amazing how some guys operate under the microscope while other mega-stars can totally elude scrutiny. Obviously being in Indianapolis has something to do with it - we know nothing about what Manning does when he isn’t on the field, and we knew nothing about Marvin Harrison until his alleged shooting incident in the spring (which has conveniently seemed to have gone away).

Again, I must qualify this next story by saying that summer league basketball is virtually meaningless. That being said, a couple of interesting performances came out in the first game for Minnesota and Dallas. The T-Wolves cruised to an easy win on the strength of an impressive showing by Kevin Love. The start was rocky, but he ended up with 18 points and 13 rebounds. I have reasonably high hopes that he will exceed expectations as a pro, so this was a good start. The other one to note was Dallas’ Shan Foster. The former Vanderbilt star had 17 points. Foster didn’t get the respect I think he deserved in the draft. He’s a bit one-dimensional, but he just knows how to score. He joins DeAndre Jordan and Chris Douglas-Roberts as guys who could wind up being major steals in the second round.

Strange story from the Islanders’ camp. They fired Ted Nolan today after two years as coach, citing differing philosophies between coach and management. Nolan was out of coaching for about a decade after winning coach of the year in Buffalo. He reportedly feuded with his goalie there, and many say he got his GM fired as well. In New York he got more out of the team than they deserved with the talent they had, but he reportedly feuded with his goaltender, and he obviously couldn’t get along with his GM. It will be very interesting to see if he will get another job, or if the emerging pattern will put him squarely back on the black list. Things must have been pretty bleak if they warranted his firing this long after the season ended, and this close to rookie camps and, as hard as it is to believe, the start of training camp. The new staff will be starting from behind.

Jeff Borris, the agent for Barry Bonds, says his client has not received a single offer from a team looking for his services, and that the prospects look bleak for him to play this year. I hate when bad things happen to good people.

I was passing some time tonight by browsing around the odds at Pinnacle looking for anything interesting (it was a slow night, obviously). As I did that a few lines of interest popped out that are worth a comment:

Men’s Olympic soccer - Anything can happen in a short tournament, but it would be a major upset of the winner of this tournament wasn’t either Argentina or Brazil. They are just that much better than anyone else. Interestingly, they are priced in such a way that you could bet both if you wanted and still make money if you were right. Argentina is +188 and Brazil is at +238 to win them all. That’s not bad for heavy favorites at this point.

Men’s Olympic basketball - There is a prop asking whether the U.S. will win gold. Yes is -297 and no is +277. I absolutely think that the Americans should be favored, and they will have to have a good excuse not to win, but I still think that there is probably value in betting against them here. With the quality that is in this tournament and their performance in recent international play this is just too small a price.

Indianapolis Colts season win total - 11 - This one is interesting to me. I cant stand the Colts, but they are a public team. It’s surprising, then, that they are favored to go under their total. They are at +133 to go over 11, and -149 to go under. I’m pleasantly surprised to see that the public isn’t buying into them this year. It would be nice to not have to see them as a major contender for a while.

Carolina Panthers season win total - 7.5 - This is another surprising one. They are at +147 to go under this total. They are just one quarterbackk injury away from another unimpressive season, and recent history would suggest that that isn’t nearly the longshot that this price would suggest it is.

Men’s Olympic badminton - Chunlai Bao (-119) vs. Jin Chen (+109) - Just kidding - I may be a bit of a degenerate, but nearly enough of one to dig this deep into the barrel to find some action. All I know about badminton is that shuttlecock used to be a really funny word when I was in grade school.

How bad could it get for the Rays? Just a short week ago they were the talk of the league, sporting a five game lead in the least budget-conscious division in sports after winning 11 of 12 games. They haven’t won a game since. They dropped their sixth straight game tonight, and their previously comfortable lead is down to just half a game over the Red Sox. Oops. That’s now how the fairy tale was supposed to go heading into the All-Star break.

The latest one, tonight against Cleveland, was especially ugly. Matt Ginter hadn’t won in the majors in four years, yet he pulled it off. He was only pulled into action because the Indians needed to fill the spot vacated by Sabathia, and he was cheap and simple. Ryan Garko was in a hitting slump that hadn’t earned him an extra base hit in more than a month, yet he had five RBIs.

That loss to Cleveland was the third in a row, and it’s a sign of the reason why Tampa Bay fans probably aren’t feeling very good right now. The Indians, since losing Sabathia, know their season is over. It is too straightforward to assume that that means that they will just quit and pack it in, but it would seem more than likely that the Rays could have zapped the Indians of some will if they had come out playing strong. Cleveland had lost 10 straight coming into the series and their rotation was a disaster. Instead, the Rays lost the three games by a combined 26-6.

So, how bad could it get? I am sure that the Rays can right the ship and get things back in order. I would feel better, though, if they weren’t so young and inexperienced. For most of the team this will be the worst adversity that they have faced. That could make it too easy to panic, and they really don’t need to panic - at 55-38 they still have the third best record in baseball and are still atop their division. A win on Sunday would keep them there for the All-Star break. The break also comes at a great time for them to get their heads back on straight and come out swinging the next time around.

So, the point? Don’t give up on the Rays yet. It is more than conceivable that they could falter now, come back to earth a bit and miss the playoffs. I’m going to give them the benefit of the doubt, though. For now. They have been too surprising for too long now to assume that this is anything more than a pretty large pothole on the road to brighter things.

Elton Brand is taking, to me, a surprising amount of abuse from pockets of the media regarding his decision to jump to the Sixers after opting out from his contract with the Clippers. Sure, he initially said he was intending to re-sign, but I don’t think he can be blamed in the slightest for what he has done. Here are five good reasons:

1. He made more money. Not a ton more, but Philly was willing to pay more than the Clippers. As we hear until we are sick of it, sports are a business now.

2. He moved to the East. The East is rapidly improving, they have had a strong offseason in many cases, and they win more than their share of titles, but it is still the poor cousin of the NBA. The West is ridiculously deep and tough. Even with Baron Davis and Brand the Clippers were far from a lock to make the playoffs. The Sixers are already a playoff team, and Brand has a chance to be very competitive in a conference with more room to grow. Jumping at the opportunity to move was the smart thing to do.

3. Baron Davis did the same thing. I am somehow supposed to feel sorry for the Clippers even though they did the exact same thing to Golden State as Philly did to them - poach away an opting out player who said he was going to return. Karma. Irony. Hilarious.

4. He joined a better team. Philly has a younger core, but as long as they re-sign Andre Iguodala they have more talent, more potential, and are a better fit for Brand’s talents than the Clippers were. If you were to have listed the attributes of the payer that the Sixers needed to complete their puzzle you would have ended up with pretty much exactly what Brand has to offer. The Clippers added Davis, but they also lost Carey Maggette, and didn’t have a way to replace his scoring. Brand should be praised for his hunger to win.

5. He owes the Clippers nothing. Brand played for the Clippers for seven years. He was mostly a model citizen and was the face of the sad organization. Over that time the team mostly floundered. They made one playoff run of significance, and even then making the second round of the playoffs was seen as a huge upset. Brand has been living in basketball purgatory, and he has just taken it. He hasn’t pouted, driven drunk, done drugs, or shot a stripper. He’s just kept his head down, played at a high level, and gone about his business. This guy needs and deserves a change of scenery. After all he has been through in L.A. I think he can be forgiven for not believing that the next next coming of the Clippers is for real. The Clippers were not just one player away. Anyone who says otherwise is writing from atop a high ivory tower.

Needless to say, I am in Brand’s corner on this one. I already liked the Sixers quite a bit - they are fun to watch and were profitable ATS last year. This just makes them more interesting, and is yet another great storyline to follow in the East. Just think about it - Boston should be about as good as they were. Detroit should too. Orlando is retooling a bit and will be better defensively. The Bulls, Heat, and Sixers should be significantly better. So should Milwaukee and Toronto. The Wizards did what they thought they had to do. So did New Jersey and Indiana. Even some of the perennial cellar dwellers are rising - Memphis is being aggressive, Atlanta showed signs of life last year, and the Kinicks, well, at least they got rid of Isiah Thomas. The West may still be better, but the East is certainly more fascinating.

That sound you hear is, I fear, the sound of floodgates opening. For a couple of glorious years now college basketball has been, in my mind, significantly better off for the presence of a few spectacularly talented young players - even if they only stayed for a year. The NBA’s change in minimum draft age meant that we got to see guys like Kevin Durant, Greg Oden, Derrick Rose and Michael Beasley make the college game their personal playgrounds. That has made the world a better place. Now that might all be threatened thanks to a guy named Brandon Jennings.

Jennings is perhaps the top 18 year old point guard in the country. He first committed to USC, then decommitted and eventually settled on Arizona. But then he ran into academic problems. His first SAT score was too low for admission. His score in the second test was so much improved that the authorities guessed he cheated and he didn’t fight it enthusiastically enough to make us think otherwise. He took the test a third time, but he made the decision I dread before he got the results.

Jennings is going to turn pro and play in Europe next year. It’s frustrating to me because it is a good move for the player. Or at least it isn’t a bad one. Provided he lands on a good team he’ll play against decent competition including several NBA draft picks or future draft picks. He’ll also play against older players, so he will be well seasoned for the toughness and experience he will face when he makes his inevitable jump to the pros in a year. European basketball is so closely scouted now that he will get seen just as often as he would in college, and he may even stick out more if his style of play and athleticism are different than the league norm. In other words, on balance he’ll get an experience not too far removed (on the basketball side if not the lifestyle side) from what he would experience in college, and he’ll make a whole lot of money at the same time.

I can guarantee that there are a bunch of younger players watching this very closely, and even more agents. Going to Europe would allow agents to get their claws into stud players a year earlier, and the open availability of other pro options could allow them to leverage the NBA into better contracts down the road. This one year plan was working way too well to last, so a loophole was inevitable. I just wish it hadn’t been found so soon.

This can be a tough time of year for sports bettors. If you aren’t into baseball then there isn’t much to hold your attention. Golf is in an inter-Major lull. So is tennis. Basketball and football are technically on, but in versions that are far from captivating. Horse racing is in a lull until Saratoga and Del Mar get fired up. There is a bit of soccer, but not the thrilling international action of the spring and early summer. The Olympics are still a month away, and real football action is almost two months away. If you don’t like betting on baseball then you could be in some real trouble.

What’s a guy (or gal) to do? The obvious answer would be to start betting on baseball, but that’s probably not a helpful suggestion. Instead, here are 10 things you could do to fill your time until a sport you actually want to bet on rolls around:

1. Go outside. See your TV? Of course you do, you are always in front of it. See above it? There is probably a wall there. Somewhere behind that wall is this magical place called outside. It’s warm and nice. You should check it out some time.

2. Pout. It’s not fair that sports leagues set it up so that you are bored in summer, is it? No! I don’t know for sure, but maybe pouting about it will make it better. It might work even better if you throw something.

3. Practice pouting. If you feel like pouting seems a bit extreme then you could always get some practice in for next season. At some point it is guaranteed that a call will go against you, or a team you bet on will forget to show up, or they’ll build up a lead and then coast so the bad guys cover the spread at the last second. If you practice pouting now then you will be more ready to do your best when you have to do it for real then.

4. Meet people. Reportedly, there are people out there who think about other things than just sports and sports betting all the time. I don’t know any, and I certainly don’t know how to meet them, but if you try you might get lucky and figure it out.

5. Watch other sports. Just because there is nothing you would normally watch on TV, that doesn’t mean that there isn’t stuff to watch. Right now on my TV I can watch darts, cricket, bowling and a lumberjack competition. That’s entertainment. I feel like a better person already for having widened my horizon.

6. Find other things to bet on. There’s a fly and a spider on my window. I bet that the spider will move first, largely because there is some real value in him as a +175 underdog.

7. Corrupt a child. Kids grasp math surprisingly quickly if it is presented to them in an interesting way. Find the nearest kid you know - the younger the better - and teach them the basics of calculating odds. They’ll be much better off for it, and their parents will be thankful. Just make sure that it is a kid you know - there are more problems than I can describe with doing this with some random kid on the street.

8. Sleep. Just think ahead to what weekends will be like through the fall - college football Thursday and Friday nights, four or five games on Saturday, and three sets of games Sunday. Exhausting. I don’t even want to consider Monday night, or what happens when the baseball playoffs roll around. You’ll tire yourself out then, so use this time to get some well deserved rest.

9. Look back. This is easiest if you keep good records. Look back at every game you lost in the last year. tell yourself why you knew that the other team was going to win and how you meant to make the winning bet if only someone hadn’t screwed it all up for you. This kind of justification is crucial to being a sports bettor, so keep practicing until you get it right. Just remember, though - every single game you won was a perfect pick that went exactly as you expected.

10. Scout cheerleaders. Cheerleaders are at least as important as the players in modern football. Through the wonders of the internet you can easily see what both college and pro squads have to offer in their crucial fourth squad (fourth after offense, defense, and special teams - though that is definitely not by order of preference). Miami and Dallas get the traditional attention, but I like the directions taken by Baltimore and Cleveland, and what a lot of college teams are offering makes me more than optimistic about the future of our continent.

I’ve got a summer cold - the worst punishment for past sins imaginable. It’s a doozy, too. Given that, I’d love to be catty and dismissive to a few teams or players to make myself feel better. Sadly, though, there are a couple of big stories tonight that I really like and am quite enthusiastic about. That’s no fun.

1. Cubs acquire Rich Harden. This is a great move. The Sabathia trade gave the Brewers a clear pitching edge in the division, but the Cubs took immediate and decisive steps to restore the balance of power. Zambrano and Harden may not be quite as good as Sheets and Sabathia, but they are pretty darned close. Better yet, Harden has an option for next year that the Cubs are very likely to exercise, so this isn’t just a short-term fix. On top of it all, the Cubs also got Chad Gaudin in the deal. He’s not a superstar by any means, but he’s a solid arm that can start or eat up innings in the pen. Piniella had him in Tampa bay, so he knows what he has and it’s a good sign that he obviously wanted him again. As good as all that is, I like it for Oakland, too. They got younger, but they didn’t give Harden away. They got some solid assets back, and they saved themselves from having to make a tough decision about Harden - an obviously talented pitcher with some injury problems - down the road. Stability is a big part of the Billy Beane system, and this move buys future stability at a fair price. The biggest impact of this deal, though, is the message it sends to the Cubs and their fans - this is the year.

2. Elton Brand reportedly has a deal with the Sixers. I like this one for a lot of reasons. From a karma perspective, I have to say that this one sits really well with me. Baron Davis lied to the fans in Golden State who had been nothing but good to him when he opted out and bolted to the Clippers. Proximity to Hollywood was the big draw it seems, but obviously playing with Brand was a big motivation as well. Because of Davis’ deal, though, the Clippers didn’t have the cap space to match the Philly offer. I especially love this move from the Philly perspective. The Sixers hosted the first NBA regular season game I ever saw live, so I have always had a soft spot for them. They were so impressive as serious underdogs against the Celtics in the playoffs, and they have a very good core of young players - Iguodala, Miller, Young, and rookie Speights. Brand gives them an interior presence they needed badly, and it gives him a system and a team that he can help lift to the next level. He never had that in L.A., and this team is better in my mind than the Clippers would have been with him and Davis. Despite the continued strength at the top, the East is wildly competitive, and this move makes the Sixers as good as any non-elite team in the conference. That had to factor significantly into Brand’s decision.

A couple other quick things:

I really don’t care about summer league basketball at all, but I do take good things from the play of Michael Beasley so far. He came out against the Bulls and absolutely ripped them up. The next day against the Nets he was terrible 1-for-13 from the floor. That’s rough, but he had the right attitude about it in the post-game meetings with the press - he wasn’t worried about it because bad games happen and, more importantly, the team won. He’s doing this all with a fractured sternum, so I can’t really think of any reason why the Heat would be anything but thrilled by their pick.

O.J. Mayo and Joe Alexander both signed today. I’m very happy to see that teams are getting their players on board quickly.

Interesting social experiment coming out of Atlanta this week. Jeff Francoeur has boatloads of talent, but he has been truly terrible at the plate this year. He is in a slump that has been underway since late May. The team needs to snap him out of it, and they figured out a bold way to do so - they sent him down to Double-A without discussing it with him first. They said they may keep him down there for a couple of weeks to let him get his mind right and find his stroke again. In the end, though, he was only down for three games. There’s no doubt it worked in one regard - he went 7 for 13 in the three games, and had four hits on Sunday. Where it gets interesting, though, is that Francoeur is pissed. He says that he feels betrayed, and he is openly questioning management. The Braves’ management deserves some credit for making a bold move, but it is one that could backfire dramatically. It will be interesting t watch how it plays out.

I think that Todd Bertuzzi is a truly reprehensible athlete. Scum. The Calgary Flames are my beloved hometown team. Bertuzzi joined the Flames today. Sometimes being a fan is tough.

Word is out that Darius Miles is attempting a comeback. He had a reportedly great workout with Boston. Miles has been out of action thanks to a knee injury that was thought to be career ending. Portland still owns his rights, and they have been paying his contract, but it doesn’t count against the cap because he is out for his career. If he comes back, though, then the salary hits the cap for Portland. That would be disastrous. This is another thing that will be very interesting to watch play out.

The Red Sox have seven all-stars. The Rays are five games better, and they just swept the Sox, yet they only have two. That either tells us just how incredible Tampa’s run is, or how ridiculous and meaningless all-star selection is. I vote for the latter.

It isn’t official yet, but it seems that C.C. Sabathia ia about to become a Brewer. Word is that he will be exchanged for a four player package that centers around Matt LaPorta, an outfielder who is tearing it up in AA this year after being the seventh overall pick in the draft last year out of Florida. A few thoughts on the deal:

1. I like the deal from the Brewers… as long as it works out. The NL doesn’t have a lot of strength this year, so Milwaukee could make a run this year. They may not be able to catch Chicago, but they are currently in the wild card, St. Louis is the only team that is really close,and the Brewers should be better than the Cardinals down the stretch (even without this deal). This move significantly improves their rotation, strengthens the bullpen by allowing them to move a current starter into a long reliever position, and should give them the confidence that comes from a stud pitcher and a player with deep recent playoff experience. My only hesitation from a full endorsement for this deal is that it pretty much has to work this year. It is almost certain that the team won’t re-sign both Sabathia and Ben Sheets, and it is very possible that they will have neither player back next year. This is a bold move for this year, and this year only.

2. That being said, I am okay with them trading away LaPorta. He is hitting well, and he looks like he should be able to continue that in the bigs, but his fielding is reportedly less than stellar. It would be far more attractive to have a player like that around if Milwaukee was still in the AL where they can stick him in at DH.

3. The other piece of upside for the Brewers is that they will get two compensatory draft picks if they are unable to sign Sabathia after this year. That reduces the risk of the deal.

4. It will be very interesting to see what Sabathia can do now that he will get to hit regularly. He certainly has looked good in his occasional attempts.

5. I love the timing for both teams. Cleveland can get on with their season without having the distraction of the inevitable deal hanging over their heads. Milwaukee gets to see him on the mound a couple of times before the all-star break so that he is settled in and ready to go when action heats up again.

6. I will be watching closely to see how he adapts to the change in leagues. We have recent conflicting data on how easy it is for good pitchers to move over to the senior circuit. Danny Haren has pulled it off well, but Johan Santana hasn’t been as good as we might have thought, and Barry Zito has been historically bad.

7. Sabathia’s numbers aren’t great (6-8. 3.83 ERA), but they are deceptive. He was awful at the start of the year, but he has been fantastic since then. Few pitchers have been any better, and he would be even more successful if the Indians could score a run or two.

8. It will be interesting to see if the Indians rise up after this, if they give up, or if little changes. I could imagine each scenario being possible.

Saturday was a very interesting day at Wimbledon. Venus Williams beat her sister, won her fifth Wimbledon title and second straight, and proved conclusively that she is without a doubt the best female grass player in the world despite her frustrating inconsistency. The sisters put their competitive differences aside a couple of hours later to cruise to an incredibly easy win in the doubles final. Finally, Canadian Daniel Nestor and new partner Nenad Zimonjic made their second straight grand slam final, but performed better this time around by winning in four sets.

That’s all fine, but the main event that we have been waiting for takes place tomorrow.The final between Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal was as close to inevitable as anything can be in sports. They are so clearly the best players in the world that it is laughable, and they have played in the last two Wimbledon finals and the last three at the French. Neither has been particularly challenged so far in the tournament. The fact that we all knew that this showdown was coming makes it no less interesting or exciting.

Despite the fact that Nadal has been crowned as the new king of tennis by much of the press, and Federer is getting the least respect that it is possible for a five time defending champion to get, Federer is still the favorite in this match, albeit by a smaller than normal margin. Pinnacle has Federer at -135, leaving Nadal at +125. As I said at the start of the tournament, I am enthusiastically on the side of Federer. Here, in brief, are five reasons:

1. Federer has 40 straight wins at Wimbledon. He is virtually unbeatable on grass. Nadal can’t say the same.

2. Federer has 10 career titles on grass, including five at Wimbledon. Nadal has one.

3. Despite opinions to the otherwise, Federer is in very good form. In his last three tournaments he reached the final at the French on a surface that isn’t a strength, won a grass tournament, the Gerry Weber, and has cruised to a final here. Granted, Nadal is one step better - he won the French and his grass prep. It’s a big mistake, though, to assume that Federer is in trouble. Neither Novak Djokovic nor Bjorn Borg knows what they are talking about on that front.

4. Federer is older, wiser and, despite his plethora of wins, I have the feeling that he is hungrier here. He is on top of the tennis world, but he is being threatened. He’s too much of a champion to take that challenge lying down. Further, he has the clear memory of the embarrassment he suffered in the French on his mind, and he won’t like that.

5. Federer is back to being healthy. Poor health accounted for much of his downswing, so the return to health can’t be underestimated.

I don’t know much about the Fourth of July, but the sense I get from watching from afar is that it is all about eating too much, drinking way too much, and trying not to blow yourself up with fireworks. Sounds like fun. It only makes sense, then, that the occasion is annually marked by the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest. The thought of watching people cram that much processed mystery meat down their throats is disgusting to me, but it’s on ESPN, and more importantly you can bet on it, so it is worthy of a look.

The favorite is the local boy and defending champ, Joey ‘Jaws’ Chestnut. Last year’s win was his first, but the list of vulgar accomplishments this guy has to his name is, well, scary - 59 peanut butter sandwiches in 10 minutes, 7 pounds of chicken wings in 12 minutes, and 47 grilled cheese sandwiches in less than 10 minutes. Just hearing that makes me want to never eat again. He’s the number one ranked eater in the world according to the International Federation of Competitive Eating. His odds to win are at 10/13.

The second choice is my pick. Takeru Kobayashi was second last year in this event, but that ended a streak of six consecutive wins. He was dealing with a few health problems last year (shocking!), but he is apparently back in fine form this year. A guy who is determined enough to win this contest six times is, in my book, determined enough to fight to get back on top. He knows how to win, he has something to prove, and that makes him a relative bargain at even money.

Proving that this is a two horse race, you can get 3/1 on the entire field outside the top two. That includes ‘winners’ like Patrick Bertoletti, ranked second in the world by the IFCE between Chestnut and Kobayashi, 2004 rookie of the year Timothy Janus, and 98 pound superstar woman eat Sonya ‘The Black Widow’ Thomas. They might be worth a hedge at this price, but don’t fool yourself - there are two freaks here that are far freakier than the rest.

It seems like there is a UFC card every weekend these days. This weekend is no exception, as UFC 86 comes to us live via pay-per-view from the Mandalay Bay in Las Vegas. This is definitely a card for the avid fans and not the casual ones. Several of the fights have the potential to be very interesting, but none have the wide, exciting appeal of recent main events. The main event here has the look of a bit of a mismatch, and the two fighters like each other too much for it to be truly riveting. There are a few intriguing betting possibilities on the card, though. Here’s a quick look, with odds from 5Dimes.

Quinton ‘Rampage’ Jackson (-265) vs. Forest Griffin (+225) - The two coaches from the past season of The Ultimate Fighter meet in the main event. I like Griffin, and I respect most aspects of his game. The problem is that Jackson is stronger and better in almost every one of those aspects. He’s a better striker, he’s better on the ground, and he’s generally more ferocious. Griffin will make it interesting, but I just can’t pick him. If Jackson has anything close to his normal day then this one will be over.

Pick: Jackson

Ricardo Almeida (-130) vs. Patrick Cote (+110) - This is i the one I am looking forward to. Almeida built quite a reputation in Japan as a submission fighter, but he retired in 2004 to run a jiu-jitsu school. Apparently the teaching life wasn’t for him, because he recently signed a six fight contract with the UFC. This is his second time back. The first was an absolute destruction of Rob Yundt. Cote is a respectable veteran who comes in riding a nice four bout win streak. Neither of these guys like spending much time in the ring, so they will both be enthusiastically looking for a way to end this one as soon as they can. Either guy could win, but Almeida provides some value at this price in my mind.

Pick: Almeida

Joe Stevenson (-210) vs. Gleison Tibau (+175) - Both guys need to bounce back from losses. Tibau had a ‘nice loss’ to Forest Griffin - he was outclassed, but he held his own very well. Stevenson was totally picked apart and exposed by B.J. Penn. On the assumption that he has pride and he wants to get rid of the taste of embarrassment of that last fight, I will pick Stevenson here. He is the more experienced fighter, and he has shown us more game over his career. He has to know that he needs a win here to keep himself in the elite title picture in his class. I think he will pull it off.

Pick: Stevenson

Tyson Griffin (-330) vs. Marcus Aurelio (+270) - Griffin faces a guy who sounds like he should have been Julius Caesar’s buddy. By the odds you would guess that this is one-sided. I don’t buy it. I have picked the favorites so far, so I’ll mix it up and take an underdog here. Griffin is probably a better fighter, and he is definitely much better known. Aurelio is new to the main event cards with the UFC, but he’s a better fighter than people who don’t know him would guess. I give Aurelio pretty much an even chance of pulling off the upset. That makes Aurelio an attractive value play. He’s no guaranteed winner, but his chances are way better than the price suggests.

Pick: Aurelio

This is shaping up to be a strange day full of somewhat surprising news. Only one item is truly shocking, but all are of interest.

First, the shocking one. Baron Davis is a Clipper. Huh? After saying repeatedly that he wasn’t going to opt out of the final year of his contract in Golden State that’s exactly what he did. The only theory that I can say makes sense is that his agent told him that the L.A. team that plays in the Staples Center wanted him, and he signed before he did more digging. Why else would he go to the Clippers at this point in his career. He is an elite player, but he’s not a youngster anymore, and he doesn’t really have the luxury of time to build a contender. And there is a lot of building to do in L.A. - especially sine Elton Brand and Corey Maggette opted out this week. Brand may be back, but that’s not certain. In Golden Sate he had a team that was returning its core and had won 48 games last year. They were in trouble because they were in the very tough West, but so are the Clippers. This is a step back. A giant one. Davis is in the movie business, and he is from So Cal, but I honestly don’t understand why the lure of home would be this strong. It says pretty strongly to me that winning isn’t as important to Davis as I thought it was. He traded proximity to the film business for 25 fewer wins last year, and he has joined one of the worst run teams in existence.

Now the one that is totally ridiculous but not at all surprising. Brett Favre has reportedly told the Packers that he has the itch to play this year. Shocking. Not surprisingly, the Packers only comment was to say that they don’t have a comment. The fact that Favre didn’t see this coming means that he has the self awareness of a mosquito. Favre has to realize that the Pack moved on because he told them to move on. I suspect he will spend the season in Mississippi, but it would be kinda fun to see him in a different uniform. How about going to Minnesota for one year to lead his new team past his former team? Or maybe to Kansas City - they need a QB, but since they have no one to protect him and no one to throw to that seems unlikely. I guess the thing is that I don’t really care, and I really hope that this isn’t the beginning of another annual installment of the Favre soap opera.

Finally, kudos to the Pittsburgh Penguins. They sounded like they were going to make a serious mistake, but they avoided doing so. They were reportedly shopping Evgeni Malkin so that they could sign Marian Hossa, but ultimately they let Hossa go and extended Malkin for five more years. This is absolutely the right decision. Malkin is younger, he has more upside, and he showed by how he stepped up when Sidney Crosby was injured that he is a real player. Hossa has been on two teams that couldn’t win, and the fact that Pittsburgh made the final with him has as much to do with the rest of the team as him. Malkin had a lousy Stanley Cup final, but he will only learn from that, and he is going to get better. You can’t say the same about Hossa - what you see is what you get. Malkin has had trouble with the coaching staff reportedly, but that can be dealt with as it needs to be. They weren’t going to get good value by dealing Malkin, so this was the right move, and a positive move for the future. On the other side, Hossa took a surprising risk. He signed for one year with the Red Wings, the team that beat him in the Stanley Cup finals, and he signed for $7.4 million. It makes sense in the sense that the Wings probably have another deep run in them, but they couldn’t afford to sign him long term because of the other players they will have to pay starting next year, so this was the only way he could sign wit the team. If he has a good year then it will work out for him because he will be able to sign a rich long term deal with another team next year. It’s a huge gamble, though. More money and a longer term were on the table from several teams, so if he has a bad year this year or he gets hurt then it will cost him a fortune. In balance, though, I like the move - it shows that Hossa is hungry to win, and that makes me respect him more as a player than I previously have.

Finally, here’s something that you don’t see every day - Mats Sundin was offered a two year contract to be the highest paid player in the NHL, and it appears that  he has passed on it. Vancouver was the team that offered him the preposterous contract, and Montreal and Toronto were among the teams that were also interested. He says that he wants time to think on it, and that that may take several weeks. That seems to sound like he may retire or play in Europe. That’s not surprising given that he is 37, but it is surprising in that the delay almost certainly means that the big deals won’t be on the table any more if and when he does want to return. The move makes sense on some levels, but it’s not every day that you see a player turn down an obscene amount of money.