Maddux Sports Blog

Once it all has had a chance to settle in a bit I’ll check back in with a look at the trades that have gone down over the last few days in the world of baseball. Before we get to that, though, I feel the need to deliver a kick or three to a guy while he is down. If Josh Beckett were just some journeyman pitcher then he would be having a perfectly acceptable year. He’s Josh Freaking Beckett, though, so this mess he is stringing together is total mess. There’s no excuse for being as average as he has been when you are as talented as he is and you have a good team behind you. He’s only partly to blame, though. As culpable are all of the naive, unthinking bettors who keep throwing their money at him so he can make it disappear like Houdini. Let’s take a look at the carnage:

Beckett is just 9-8, and the team is an even 10-10 when their ace is on the mound. There have been 264 pitchers who have made at least one start so far this season. 231 have been kinder to bettors than Beckett. A bettor who had laid a bet on each of his games would be down about 4.6 units so far on the season. Ugly.

Beckett has not looked like himself, but bettors don’t seem to have caught on to that fact. He has been favored in every one of his 20 outings, and heavily so in many cases. Over his last nine starts the team has won just three times, yet he has had prices of -169 or worse five times. He has lost four of those games. His last start shows just how bad a starter can be for the financial health of bettors. He was up against the Angels, probably the hottest team in baseball, and quite possibly the best. He was at home, but even the advantage of Fenway doesn’t justify a price of -169 given his recent form. It’s especially ridiculous given that he was up against Joe Saunders, a guy with 13 wins coming into the game. Beckett got crushed, and the favorite-loving public lost some serious cash. The books have to love a price like that - no price is too high when the public is blind.

I think that there is something wrong with Beckett. He has looked rough in three of his last four starts, and two of those outings have been his worst of the year. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he misses a start or more at some point soon with some nagging injury. Until that happens, though, I’ll just sit back and watch the public continue to commit financial suicide.

Philly - DeSean Jackson is hurt - hamstring - and hasn’t been on the field yet. What a shock. I long ago appointed myself the president of the anti-fan club for Jackson. Don’t get me wrong - he’s a freakish talent and he did amazing things with the ball at Cal. I just don’t think that a guy that small and, apparently, that fragile, has a long future in the NFL. I can’t put my finger on what exactly turns me off so much about the guy, but if I had to make a bet on the guy it would definitely be as a flop. He’s certainly not the answer that McNabb is looking for. From what I have read about the Eagles’ camp, though, their receiving answer might already be on the roster. Jason Avant is a talented possession type receiver who is heading into his third year. He hasn’t done much statistically so far, but he has shown progress. He’s reportedly had a spectacular camp so far - he’s fit, hungry, and he’s catching absolutely everything. On top of it all, he’s a Michigan guy, so you know he’s good.

Washington - I am very intrigued from the news out of Washington. Word is that Jason Campbell has looked absolutely spectacular. His throws are tight and accurate, he knows the playbook like he wrote it, and he’s fit. It’s his fourth year, and first hand observers suggest that this is the one in which he breaks through. I want to believe it, because I like what the guy has to offer on paper, and have since his last year of college. I just can’t help but get a little nervous when a guy is being tabbed for a major breakthrough this early in camp. I’ll hope for the best, but reserve judgment until I see more.

Pittsburgh - Nothing I have heard out of Latrobe makes me think that the offensive line is going to be able to protect Ben Roethlisberger any more than they have recently. That’s a real concern. Big Ben has been sacked more than any other Steeler over a two year span. Now he doesn’t haven’t Alan Faneca, and there isn’t an impressive substitute. Ben hasn’t been entirely healthy for a while, and getting a beating again won’t help on that front. I don’t like Pittsburgh anyway, but the fact that they have done little to solve this obvious problem makes me think and hope that there will be value betting against this fairly public team.

I ended up watching most of the game between the Rays and the Blue Jays tonight. That might seem a bit obscure to some, but living in Canada I can watch pretty much every Jays game, and pretty much nothing from any other team. That was pretty fun in 1992 and 1993, but it has been kind of annoying for the last decade or so. Nonetheless, it was very interesting to watch the Rays in action, and they played a heck of a game in what was, for seven innings at least, a heck of a pitcher’s duel. The Rays ended up winning 3-0, but as I was watching it two things firmly established themselves in my mind:

1. I really, really like Matt Garza. The Tampa Bay starter had a complete game shutout, and he was never not in control. Shutting down the Toronto lineup isn’t as impressive as shutting down pretty much any other lineup, but it still counts. His win tonight moves him to 9-6 on the year. Unfortunately, the team is just 10-10 when he starts, and he is the only one of the five main starters for the team, impressively, who hasn’t been profitable on the year. He’s not that far off, though - he’s lost less than two units on the year, so he can turn things around on the year without too much trouble. He’s not the most consistent pitcher, either. Yet. He’s only 24 and in his third year, and he is clearly significantly better this year than he was with the Twins. He showed impressive maturity today, and I really got the sense that he is the kind of guy who is just building to a higher level. I don’t ever think he’ll be an ace, but he strikes me as a second or third starter type who could have a 12 or 15 year career. I like Delmon Young just fine, but I think that trading him for Garza is going to turn out to be a very nice deal for the Rays. Tonight’s game is an example of where a guy like Garza is a gem. He was up against Roy Halladay, so he was a juicy +141 underdog. That fits the public’s impression of him versus an ace, but given his skill and the play of his team it was a price just loaded with potential.

2. Strangely, I lost a bit of respect for Lou Piniella tonight. Lou is doing a solid job with the Cubs this year (though he should be doing a bit better given his roster and their talent advantage). He was a total and utter waste of oxygen in Tampa, though, Granted, this team is older and more experienced than the one he was at the helm of. On the other hand, though, Lou looked like he was mailing it in for much of his time in Florida and he got absolutely no more out of the talent he had than he could of with a minimum of effort. I guess what I’m saying is that I am not nearly as convinced that Piniella is a genius as I am supposed to be. On the other hand, I caught the last couple of innings of the Cards’ win over the Braves tonight. He’s had his troubles in the last couple of years, but I still think that if I was starting a team from scratch I would unquestionably have Tony LaRussa at the helm.

A couple of other brief thoughts from the night:

1. The Angels are obviously pretty serious about things this year. I like Mark Teixera as a player, and I think that he is an upgrade over Casey Kotchman, but I’m not sure he is enough of one to warrant the move. His biggest advantage is that he is a switch hitter, and he has decent power. Kotchman is a nice player, though, and he’s younger and cheaper. This will be a good deal for the Angels if they do well in the postseason, but it also has the real potential to be a good one for the Braves. The problem I have with it for the Angels, though, is that they have already pretty much totally wrapped up their division, so this deal will only pay off (or not) in October. I’d like it better if they had given up a player like Kotchman for a gain that would have been realized for three months.

2. I know I said I was done talking about basketball, but the news that broke as I am writing this is too much to pass up on. The Kings have traded Ron Artest to Houston for Bobby Jackson, a first rounder next year, and the rights to Donte Green. This is a very interesting deal. If Artest can be a good citizen in Houston then he will be a great addition. My only concern is that there are several egos on the team already, so it won’t be a seamless transition. Still, a decent risk for a team that was fairly competitive already. On the other hand, I love what the Kings got for Artest. It’s tough to get good value for a player when he has some obvious issues, and when everyone else in the world knows that you want to get rid of him. Jackson is a decent veteran presence. The draft pick could turn into a contributor. Green is a wildly talented guy. He’s far from a lock, but he is packed with upside. Good value given the circumstances.

With the obvious exception of the Olympics, the time has come for me to forget about basketball for a while and immerse myself fully into football. I generally don’t pay that much attention to the start of the NBA season, pay more attention to the hard court when the college season starts, and really get into basketball fully once college football ends and the NFL winds towards the less interesting (in my opinion) later rounds of the playoffs. Before I say goodbye, though, there were a couple of moves today that caught my attention and will factor into betting decisions down the road.

1. Renaldo Balkman traded to the Nuggets. I love this deal. Balkman has done virtually nothing of note on the scoresheet in his career, but he has talent that hasn’t been recognized or exploited by the ridiculous circus that the Knicks organization has become. He’ll likely welcome the move, and the more free flowing Denver offense will give him room to move, and the absence of a defensive presence on the team should give him a niche. Denver gave up nothing of note for Balkman, so I have a serious suspicion that this move is going to look like a steal down the road. Balkman won’t be an all-star, but he’ll be a totally different player than people have thought he is up to now.

2. Ricky Davis signed with the Clippers in a multi-year deal. Remember when Ricky Davis used to be good? Now he’s just a space filler as far as I am concerned. He had solid numbers with Miami last year, but nothing that happened in Miami last year means anything. Davis is on the decline, and this is yet another move that will tie up salary cap space and ensure that this team is just barely average.

3. Andris Biedrins re-signed with the Warriors for six years and $62 million. I am torn on this deal. Biedrins is a solid player who won’t disappoint. On the other hand, the team has now committed almost $130 million and six years to Biedrins and Monta Ellis. That will be a great move if both players put together solid careers and continue on their current trajectories. That amount of money takes a way a lot of flexibility, though, and I am not convinced that this team has enough going forward to be competitive (a point guard of note, for example). I can’t be hugely critical of this deal or the Ellis one, but it might not work out. Either way, I’m pretty sure that I won’t spend a lot of time betting on this team next year.

That’s it for now. Unless something earth shattering happens, I will touch on the NBA only in passing for a few months. The NBA have a good relationship, but we need time apart to remember what we miss about each other.

Impressive win by Macho Again in the Jim Dandy. As I said yesterday, I really like this horse. His race was troubled, and he was in traffic trouble on the last turn, but he found a way to make a move for the lead, and then he held off an impressive late charge by Pyro. This is the first graded stakes win for Macho Again, but I don’t expect it to be the last. The horse looks physically more impressive and mentally more mature with every start. In a perfect world he would run in the Travers next month, again in September, and then he’d make his way to Santa Anita for the Breeders’ Cup. I’m not suggesting that he’s at the top of his class, but he is certainly among a handful of elite runners.

This weekend’s NASCAR race was one of the biggest jokes in recent sporting history, and it’s a scar on the sport. Goodyear delivered lousy tires that couldn’t hold up on the abrasive Indy track, so there had to be a caution every 10 laps or so so that the entire field could change their tires. That obviously robbed the drama and strategy out of the race, and it just turned it into a seven lap sprint at the end with a really long warm up. Jimmie Johnson won, and any victory counts, but this is not one to be proud of.

I am a big Manny Ramirez fan, and that comes from an equal mix of his incredible hitting talent and the bizarre spectacle that he is. I don’t have any love for the Red Sox, though, so the talk of a divorce between Man-Ram and the Sox makes me very happy. I don’t expect it to happen, but a move to Philly would really spice up the NL East race and make the Phillies a serious contender for post-season honors. Theo Epstein won’t pull the trigger on this one, though, because he doesn’t have to, and because Manny’s huge contract ensures that the Sox won’t be able to get equivalent value for him. Boston is in no position to downgrade their roster given the intense race that they are in. Manny might be a freak, but he’s a freak that can hit like almost no one else on the planet.

It is a great day of racing at Saratoga. I am not overstating my opinion or exaggerating even slightly when I say that Saratoga is unquestionably my favorite sporting facility in the world. If you have never been there you are missing out. Seriously.

All four major races today are part of the Breeders’ Cup Challenge. That means that any horse that wins one of the races is guaranteed a spot in the Breeders’ Cup at Santa Anita in October if they so choose. Here’s a quick look on how I see the four races shake out.

The Diana - Wait a While returns to action. She was the champion three year old filly in 2006, but has struggled since. She has disappointed, but she loves this track and will be tough. Vacare had a terrible race on Belmont day that she will need to bounce back from. She’s good, but not good enough in my eye. Bit of Whimsy will get some attention and will make it interesting. The horse I like, though, is Dynaforce. She has raced in Europe and will therefore know how to handle the soft turf that she will face. The one problem with the pick is that her jockey, Kent Desormeaux is currently mired in a 1-for-45 slump. It’s got to end eventually, though, so I will shoot for reasonable value on Dynaforce at 7/2 or so, and feel reasonably confident about her chances of ending up in the top two. If she stays around 7/2 then I will probably be on her to place to start the day with a nice return of $5 or so for every $2.

Vanderbilt - This one features another interesting return to action. Thor’s Echo has been in the middle east since winning the Breeders’ Cup sprint in impressive fashion in 2006. He gets a break in this sprint - Bustin Stones was going to be a tough challenge, but he has been scratched. That will leave Abraaj as the likely favorite, but that’s a horse I struggle to trust. First Defense will deservedly get attention, and Black Seventeen will get way more attention than he deserves. I’m a huge sentimentalist when it comes to horse racing, so I will certainly be on Thor’s Echo at around 6/1 with the hope that some of that 2006 magic can be recaptured. If he gets pounded down well below that 6/1 morning line price, though, then I may pass the race.

Go For Wand - Ginger Punch is as close to a lock as you can get in this sport. Of course, so was Big Brown in the Belmont. Last year’s champion is by far the best in this field. Unfortunately, she will go off at terrible odds, so she won’t be of much use other than as a key in exotics. Look elsewhere if you like to gamble, because her presence will ensure that other prices will be more than competitive.

Whitney - This is the big one, and it is an intriguing field. There are 11 horses in the main event, and there are seven that I have some affection for. From the inside of the startinggate: The seven year old Commentator is a timeless warrior who won this race back in 2005 and is still in fine form. He’ll be the favorite, but he still needs to get his race to win here. Solar Flare starts second, and could be the second choice. He has won three of his last four races, but just the last two have come since he came to the States from South America - a win and a second. He was solid in finishing second in the Suburban last time out, but I don’t think he has enough to win here. Notional, in the third spot, is likely my pick if the price is right. Trainer Mark Hennig is smoking hot, and the horse is coming off a nice win. Notional was a very nice three year old early last year before encountering some problems, and I think that he is rediscovering and building on some of that class that we got a glimpse of. Cowtown Cat is a longshot at 20/1, but I am a sucker for any horse that was in the Derby as he was last year. I won’t bet on him, but I’ll be pulling for him. Grasshopper starts in the eight spot. He was as good as any horse around earlier in the year, but has gone through a bit of a downturn. Still, his 10/1 price is eye-opening, and I may have to take a piece of him if he stays around there. A.P. Arrow is another horse who has been at the top of the game but is a bit off that point now. He’s also at 10/1 in the morning line, though, and that’s enough to get a guy thinking. Finally, Student Council is a west coast runner who has come out to the dirt in the east and looked good. He won the Pimlico Special two starts ago, and is in very good dirt form for a horse that is at 6/1 to start. In the end, I will probably be on Notional, with Student Council and Grasshopper underneath. There are a lot of outcomes that could make me happy, though.

While we are at Saratoga we might as well take a quick look ahead to tomorrow and the Jim Dandy. This race for three year olds is the first big three year old race of the summer season, and it is a big prep for the Travers. I was lucky enough to be at Saratoga for this race two years ago when Bernardini absolutely humiliated the field to assert his incredible class. This year’s version lacks a horse like that, but it certainly doesn’t lack intrigue.

Jim Dandy - Da’ Tara will be back on track for the first time since his bizarre Belmont victory. I didn’t believe in him going into that race, and despite that setback my opinion of this horse hasn’t changed. I won’t be touching him. I also won’t be on two other horses we got to know on the Derby Trail - Anak Nakal and Tale of Ekati. I have liked both horses in the past and have little but frustration to show for it. I like MInt Lane, but not at the low price he is likely to go at, so I will take the risk of avoiding him for the sake of value. It comes down, then, to two horses - a favorite and a pleasing longer shot. The favorite is Pyro. I loved the horse in the spring, and the sucker in me wants him to rise up and become a dominant three year old contender again. I will be at the Breeders’ Cup in October, and I would love to see him there. The longer shot is Macho Again, a son of the great Macho Uno who doesn’t get nearly the respect he deserves. This is an impressive horse that is going to break through sooner or later. I will likely be on some combination of those two horses by race time.

It’s hot and sunny here (a rare occurrence this summer) and I am off to an outdoor music festival in just a few minutes, so I’ll apologize in advance if my concentration has been more focused at other times. I like you all, and I appreciate that you read what I write, but you don’t hold a candle to beer, music and sunshine and I’m not going to apologize for that. Before I go, though, I thought that I would share a few of the things that are bouncing through my sporting mind today:

1. Brett Favre as a Jet makes me happy. The green New Yorkers have reportedly been given permission to talk to Favre. He’d be a good fit. I don’t love their receiving situation at all, and I am desperate for the AFC East to be more competitive than it currently appears that it will be. Let’s get it done soon so we can quit talking about this endless story.

2. There is an outstanding day of horse racing from Saratoga tomorrow. I will be writing more about this tomorrow morning, but there are four very interesting races in a row from the world’s greatest race track, and it appears as if ABC is going to show us all four of them starting at 4:00 p.m. EST. Brilliant.

3. Big Papi returns to action tonight. With the trade deadline just around the corner, this is a more significant addition than Boston could make through any transaction. If Ortiz is even halfway healthy then this gives Boston a much needed boost to try to take advantage of a Tampa Bay team that is looking more mortal and is suddenly truly awful at hitting with men in scoring position.

4. Jeff Samardzija was called up by the Cubs. How smart does the former Notre Dame receiver look now? He got a massive signing bonus, he’s a pro now, and he didn’t have to live through the disgrace that is the recent Charlie Weis era

5. AFL loses commissioner. David Baker, the commissioner of the Arena Football League, resigned suddenly today after 12 years on the job. The move came two days before the ArenaBowl. I only have one real response to this - the AFL stillexists? Talk about a league that has failed to impact the public consciousness to any real extent.

For a change, I’m going to take a brief foray into the legislative arena today. I think that it is absolutely ridiculous that there are casinos all over the continent, and more every day, and yet you can only place a sports bet in a very small fraction of them. I’m reasonably confident that pretty much everyone who reads this will agree with me. We can bet on cards, dice, a steel ball, or a million different permutations of the whim of a microchip, yet the higher powers don’t trust us to legally bet on a football game without logging on and sending our cash into cyberspace. Silly.

I don’t know how it works where you live, but it’s truly ridiculous here in Canada. The only kind of legalized sports betting is offered by the government’s lottery programs. There are a few different options, but they all boil down to the same thing - parlays with brutal point spreads and ridiculously unfair payoffs. They are a complete joke, but the government feasts on the fact that the public is too stupid to realize how badly they are getting robbed. They laugh all the way to the bank.

I bring this all up because there was some surprising but pleasing news here in my home and native land today. The federal government is reportedly considering the legalization of sports betting in our casinos. Beyond the fact that there is absolutely no reason that it shouldn’t be legalized, and it is the ultimate in hypocrisy that they keep it illegal except for in their sham form, there is a solid economic reason behind it he economy is hurting casinos, and a lot of casinos are on or near the border, so the theory is that legalized sports betting could draw Americans across the border with their cash in higher numbers than they already are. The best news is that our Justice Minister, Rob Nicholson, is the man who ultimately will make he decision. He represents Niagara Falls, the site of two large casinos right on the board that are seeing big declines in their business. The casinos are massive employers in his riding, so he should be very susceptible to lobbying. It will take a while to get the provinces on side, but as long as Nicholson stays in his position I like the chances of ultimate success.

I don’t think that the reasoning is ultimately very sound - Americans may or may not come over the border, but not in big enough numbers to turn around the bottom line of struggling casinos. Regardless, I think that this is big news. If nothing else, if one jurisdiction outside of Nevada legalizes sports betting it will put the pressure on others to do the same. Soon, us sports bettors may be able to admit what we are in public without fear of persecution. What a novel concept.

Betting online will still be handier than going out to bet, and the prices are usually better online, but it’s really the principle of the thing that fires me up the most about this issue.

I am endlessly fascinated by quarterback battles. Training camp is mostly just an exercise in exercising patience I don’t have, but the fights to see which quarterback will emerge in wide open situations is the one thing that makes it bearable. This year both the NFL and college ball have some real gems. Baltimore has a three way battle with no clear leader. My lukewarm bet would be on Joe Flacco at this point. I don’t see how a new regime can possibly stick with Kyle Boller, and Troy Smith underwhelms me. The situation at my beloved Michigan is even less clear, with no clear front runner and no choice that makes me particularly optimistic. Damn you, Terrelle Pryor!

When it comes to interesting races, though, nowhere has a more concentrated amount of interest than the city of Miami. Both the Dolphins and the Hurricanes have fascinating races underway, and neither team really has anything to lose. On the other hand, the stakes are high for both teams. If they make the right choice now then they could be set for several years. If not, their current mediocrity (I’m being kind in both cases) will continue.

Perhaps the best thing to happen to Randy Shannon in his time as head coach at Miami is that he gets to start over at quarterback. His recent choices have been less than impressive and have done little to elevate the team. Now he gets to start on a completely fresh page - he hasn’t got a player who has taken a single college snap. He also has the luxury of impressive talent to choose from. So impressive, in fact, that for the time being he isn’t going to make a choice. Robert Marve, a redshirt freshman, was Mr. Football in Florida in 2006, and Jacory Harris won the same award in 2007. Cannon Smith is the third player, and he is no slouch himself. Shannon says that he will platoon at least two of the players for a while until he gets a better picture of what he has. It should be fun to watch, though the team won’t be helped by an ugly early schedule. Whatever the outcome is, there is a good chance that this will be the start of a much brighter era at Quarterback U than the mercifully ended Kyle Wright and Kirby Freeman era.

The situation on the pro side with the Dolphins is just as compelling. Again it is a three horse race. Josh McCown should have the edge based on experience, but he is hampered a bit by a bizarre offseason accident - he chopped his own leg with an axe. He’s fine, but he missed some offseason preparation time that might have made him uncatchable. He’s a shifty, elusive quarterback, but he is about as accurate as a weatherman. This time last year John Beck was the future of the team at quarterback. My, how things change. Still, he reportedly is a ridiculously hard worker, and he clearly wants to improve, but he didn’t show enough last year to give the new regime any confidence. The clear sign of that lack of confidence is the third contender - Chad Henne. The high profile rookie wouldn’t have been drafted if Beck was well liked by management. Henne is an underdog to win the race now, ut I would be very confident in betting that he will have a start or more this year. I’m biased by my college fandom, but I think Henne is the real deal.

Both of these races are going to be very interesting to watch early on, because both will go a long way to determining whether these teams will have any vale for bettors this year. I don’t think that the public buys into either of the Miami teams right now, and the probably shouldn’t. If a new player becomes a fast study, though, then they could cover a few fat spreads before people catch on.

I don’t know what it is tonight, but I am feeling testy. Annoyed. Short fused. I had a lot of vegetables with dinner. Maybe that’s the problem. Whatever it is, as I have been browsing through the sports betting news tonight a few things as stuck out to me as particularly grating:

Tony Dungy - The Colts’ coach said today that his star QB will be ready for the regular season opener. He may even be ready to play in the preseason. There’s nothing wrong with that specifically, and it may even be true. It’s just that Dungy drives me absolutely nuts, and it especially annoys me that he has been elevated to such a position by the media that I can’t dislike him without being a truly awful guy.

Marvin Lewis - This guy is easily the worst coach who has never been fired. Today he came out and ‘emphatically’ stated that the Bengals wouldn’t welcome Chris Henry back to the team. That’s fine - Henry is probably more trouble than it’s worth. It’s just that Lewis was so self-righteous about it when under his watch his entire team has been arrested about six times each, and he has wasted more offensive talent than most coaches ever see in their lives. Lewis is so bad that if he had any shame at all he would give Chris Henry his job and go get himself a job as a waiter at Olive Garden.

The Favre debacle - There were more developments on the Brett Favre front today. I just don’t know what they were. I am so sick of the whole thing that I just want to puke. The whole ridiculous Packers’ organization should thank there lucky stars that I am not the President, because if I had an air force I swear that I would blow the whole city of Green Bay off the map, and have my boys drop their left over bombs in Mississippi just to be sure.

Plaxico Burress - Burress is upset because the Giants won’t pay him more. He has three years left on a six year deal, but he wants more. He now says that he will come to camp, but that he isn’t going to be happy about it. What a moron. The deal he signed was good enough when he signed it, and the guys who are getting big deals now have one thing in common - they are all better than Burress. I’d rather that Burress just hold out and go away then show up and whine to anyone who will listen that he’s grossly disrespected because he only makes $4 million a year.

It struck me today that I hadn’t heard much about Jacoby Ellsbury recently. It wouldn’t be surprising that a typical rookie wasn’t making much news, but Ellsbury emerged in such a high profile way last year, and he started off so well, that the absence of news was remarkable. I took a quick look to see what I had missed. It hasn’t been pretty. His average isn’t terrible, with an average of .262. He’s just fallen off a cliff recently. His strikeouts have jumped, his walks have plummeted. He has no home runs in 28 days, one in 48 days, and he has just five home runs in 35 games. He’s leading the league in stolen bases, but the rest of his game is pretty terrible right now. I don’t really have a point other than to say that breaking into this league isn’t always as easy as it might seem.

Fedor Emelianenko is a bad, bad man. Anderson Silva was impressive in his own right, but nothing compared to Emelianenko. In just 36 seconds he knocked down the giant Tim Sylvia with a ferocious right uppercut, pummeled him with a flurry of punches, and got him to submit with a choke hold. That’s a lot to accomplish in just over half a minute, but Fedor was able to do it because he moved like the lightest of lightweights and hit like a truck. As I said on Saturday I was questioning whether he was fading a bit, but there is now no doubt in my mind that he is the finest heavyweight on the planet. The biggest problem now will be to find a worthy opponent, and I don’t believe Randy Couture fits that bill.

Mea culpa on the whole Padraig Harrington thing. I thought he was a lousy bet - the pressure of being defending champ, some problems with inconsistency, and the wrist injury totally robbed him of any value at 15/1 in my mind. That still may be true, but the fact remains that he won easily, and he did it by putting together the most impressive last six holes I have seen in any tournament in a long time, never mind one with such lousy conditions. If I could just once in my life hit an approach shot like he did on the 17th then I would quit playing golf on the spot, and I would be totally content.

A couple of good trades in the NFL the last two days. I define a good trade as one that helps both teams (unless I am a fan of one team and the steal a player). Jason Taylor is a good fit in Washington, he needed to get out of Miami, and the Dolphins got good value for him. Jeremy Shockey is a dream fit for the Saints, he was destined to be toxic in New York, and the Giants will get two potential contributors back in the form of draft picks. No losers in either case, and it just makes the league more interesting. It’ll also knock a point or two off of Saints’ futures, I think.

Fresh off a disqualification in an LPGA event this weekend, Michelle Wie has chosen to play in the PGA again in the Reno-Tahoe Open next week. Ridiculous. I promise never to mention it again.

I don’t know about you, but I am itching for the football season to get here. Aching, really. NFL training camps get under way right away, so America’s favorite sport has been on my mind a lot lately. We’ll obviously spend a lot of time talking about the league in the weeks and months to come, but before we get into any specifics I just wanted to reflect on some of the general thoughts that are bouncing through my mind at this point.

Jacksonville - I like this team. A lot. Their division is a bit softer than it has been. Their offense is solid. Their defense is significantly upgraded. Every year there are a couple of teams that I either make or lose a fortune on. I strongly suspect that Jacksonville is one of those teams. They aren’t going to surprise anyone, and the public is going to be aware of them, but I still thin that they will play well enough to make some money.

Seattle - At 10/11, the Seahawks are favored to win the NFC West. This is a sad statement on the state of that division. I guess I don’t dislike Seattle. How can you, really? There is just nothing to like about them, either. They are the vanilla ice cream of the NFL. If they were to fold right before the season started it would take six weeks before anyone would notice. I just wish I had enough faith in the Cardinals (2/1) to believe that they can finally realize their potential and win this division.

New England - The Patriots aren’t going to be as good as they were last year. Perhaps not even close. That being said, I will be more surprised than I have ever been by anything in my life ever (and I am a Michigan fan who was expecting to beat Appalachian State by 30) if the Pats don’t win their division this year. Easily. Incredibly easily. I’m not the only one to hold this bold opinion - the team is 1/10 to win the division.

San Diego - The Chargers might not even have to work as hard as the Pats will to win their division. There isn’t another team there that stands even a chance of being elite in my mind. Not even close

Minnesota - As a general rule I try to avoid hype whenever possible. The problem here, though, is that I am not sure I can. Minnesota has a ton of talent, I don’t respect their division or their conference, and they have a decent schedule. I don’t think that Minnesota is the best team in the conference, but I find it hard to convince myself that they aren’t among the elite.

San Francisco - The last two years at this time of year I have touted the Niners. It worked fabulously for me two years ago. It didn’t last year. I’m not going to do that again this year. I wish I could - they have some things to like. They just can’t get their act together. This team is dead to me.

Oakland - Some people say that the Raiders could be significantly improved this year. Some people also say that Elvis is still alive. I don’t think either is true. Maybe they will win a game or two more, but they still have a long way to go before they are respectable.

Tennessee - Here’s a prediction for you - this is the last year that Vince Young will be a full time starter in the NFL. No single reason, just a collection of little feelings.

Cincinnati - Marvin Lewis deserves to still be the coach of this team just as much as Roger Clemens deserves the benefit of the doubt - not even slightly. The Bungles have been a mess for a couple of years now, and they are going to be a mess again. The offensive talent that Lewis has wasted is almost criminal.

Kansas City - The Chiefs are going to be the worst team in the league. I feel pretty good about the chances of that. What do I like about this team? Pretty much nothing. Maybe Larry Johnson, but he’s fragile, and I really don’t like his chances of holding up without a line to protect him or a quarterback to provide other options to distract the opposing defenses.

As much as we might wish otherwise, Donald Trump won’t go away. The USFL, the WWE, and a few golf courses weren’t enough involvement in the sports world for him. Now he’s involved with MMA. He’s a financial and promotional partner with Affliction, a clothing company that fancies itself a fight promoter. The first major Affliction event, called Banned, takes place tonight in Anaheim. In typical Trump style the Baned card is big and impressive. Fedor Emelianenko is widely seen as the best heavyweight, and perhaps the best pound-for-pound fighter, in the world. The UFC has tried to land him for years, but they have failed. He’s headlining the Affliction card. Here’s a look at the card for tonight, with odds from Bodog.

Fedor Emelianenko (-350) vs. Tim Sylvia (+275) - Fedor was a menace in PRIDE, but he was done there at the end of 2006, and he has done little since. He has fought just twice, and neither match was even remotely a challenge. His first opponent was a seven foot giant without any skills to match his size, and his second was an undersized middleweight. He needs to prove that he is still as good as his legend, and Sylvia is a good opponent to do so. Sylvia is a two time UFC champ. His last fight in February was for the UFC title, but he lost to Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira. He’s not the best fighter out there, but he is a legitimate talent. Sylvia is a good striker, and he is hard to take down. Fedor is much better inside, and the fight is probably over if it gets to the ground, Sylvia could surprise, but Fedor seriously needs this win, so I expect him to be hungry and get the job done. Fedor by a submission.

Josh Barnett (-450) vs. Pedro Rizzo (+300) - In what will become a recurring trend on this card, Barnett is also a former UFC Heavyweight champ. His reign was in 2002, and it was very short. He beat Randy Couture, but failed a drug test and was stripped. Since then he has fought mostly in Japan. Rizzo bounced around the UFC and PRIDE before most recently fighting in Art of War. Barnett is the clear favorite, and the fight would hold little interest if not for a bit of history - Rizzo is the only guy ever to knock Barnett out. That was back in 2001. Rizzo is a slugger, and this will have to look suspiciously like a boxing match with just the odd kick if he wants to win. If Barnett is able to avoid that and get the fight to the ground, and I think he will, then he should make short work of it.

Andrei Arlovski (-225) vs. Ben Rothwell (+185) - Oh look, another former UFC Heavyweight champ. In an incestuous coincidence, Arlovski both won his title from and lost it to Tim Sylvia. Rothwell comes from the IFL where he was a legitimate Heavyweight, having strung together 13 straight victories. Arlovski is a good striker. In fact, he is training with Freddie Roach as will make his debut as a boxer in September on the undercard of the Casamayor-Marquez fight. He’s also a solid threat on the ground. Rothwell is an enigma. He has looked like a menace in the IFL, but it’s unclear what that actually means. He’s bigger and stronger than Arlovski, but this is a big step up in class. This is the first fight we have discussed that isn’t clear on either side. I would give Arlovski a slight edge, but a Rothwell victory wouldn’t surprise me. I’d probably pass the fight, but if I had to go one way I would probably look at Rothwell for a bit of value.

Matt Lindland (-500) vs. Fabio Negao (+350) - This is an odd fight. Or, more correctly, Lindland’s current story is an odd one. He’s a middleweight who has had a solid career while bouncing around among several organizations. The last year or two have been bizarre, though. First, he moved up in weight to face Fedor Emelianenko. He lost, but that was almost a given. That was in April of last year, and he hasn’t fought since. He hasn’t bee sitting around idle, though. As unlikely as it might seem, Lindland won the Republican primary in Oregon’s 52nd Congressional District, and will enter the election looking to hold the seat of a retiring Republican congresswoman. Negao is aggressive, but he hasn’t exactly differentiated himself through his career. Still, given all that Lindland has on his plate it would seem like an upset could be possible. Negao will have to get the fight to the ground and make sure that Negao isn’t able to get on top of him. I don’t know that I am willing to bet on Negao, but I certainly wouldn’t touch Lindland at this price. I’m not sure I’d vote for him, either, though if he asked me to my face I’d sure say I was going to.

I spent most of the morning watching the British Open. It was fascinating, and not much else is going on in the sports world right now, so I thought I would share what is sticking out in my mind halfway through the tournament.

1. I understand that links-style courses are the original courses, and I can appreciate the history and challenge, but wow, are those courses ever ugly. I don’t find it interesting to watch a course that lacks a tree, is perpetually hammered by wind, and has grass up above a players waist just feet from the fairway. I’d take a beach course like Pebble Beach, a mountain course, or anything with a tree anytime over this.

2. It’s early, and there is still a lot to play, but I said that I liked Camilo Villegas at 80/1 before the tournament started, and I like him even more now. He’s sitting two strokes off the lead after birdies on his last five holes today gave him a tournament-best 65. This guy is young, but he can hit it a mile, he’s incredibly hot, and he has just enough swagger to hold up under the pressure of the weekend. I’m not saying he’ll win, but I love him at the price.

3. David Duval is an odd story. I’m not sure we’ve ever seen a guy that good become so bad for no apparent reason and still keep playing. I’m glad to see him in contention here. That being said, I wish the commentators would just leave him alone. They showed a whole  lot of his round today, and with pretty much every shot they had to rehash his epic struggles and every flaw in his game. He’s a former Open champion so he is open to scrutiny. So are Ben Curtis and Todd Hamilton, though - they’re not doing much with their careers, either, but they don’t pick on them the same way.

4. Greg Norman having a good first round was an interesting story. Him doing it again in the second round was really something to see. He’s putting like his ball is steel and the hole is a magnet. I don’t think that he’ll hold up physically through the round, and I would have to bet against him if i was forced to make a decision, but it will be fun to see if he can keep the miracle going.

5. Phil Mickelson wastes more talent and potential than any man on this planet. The only thing more annoying than that is that he has a carefully crafted excuse for everything he does poorly. He also burns money. He was 12/1 to win this tournament, and I guarantee a ridiculous proportion of public money was thrown down that hopeless well.

6. This would be a way more interesting tournament if it didn’t start before the sun came up every morning.

7. I definitely wouldn’t bet against K.J. Choi right now. I love how he is playing, he’s oozing confidence, and he’s good enough to contend to the end.

8. The weather obviously affects every course, but this is just ridiculous. This was a different course yeserday afternoon than it was yesterday morning, and it was a much easier course today than yesterday. The time you tee off shouldn’t have such an impact on the outcome of a major.

Wow, is the weather ever ugly at the British Open. If I showed up at a course and the sky looked like that I would turn around and go home. A links-style course does nothing to make the day look any nicer, either.

Phil Mickelson finished the first round at nine over. Way to grab an opportunity with the absence of Tiger and run with it. Seeing Phil choke is an all too common occurrence. On the plus side, I guess, he is a stroke ahead of Ernie Els and Vijay Singh.

As I write this, Greg Norman is one stroke off the pace through eight holes. Imagine the story if he could keep that pace up. He’s also tied with Anthony Kim. That guy is on fire.

Adam Scott is the first player to be under par at the turn. It’s way too early, obviously, but I like his chances on Sunday. He was and is a bargain at 25/1.

James Posey left the Celtics to sign for four years and $25 million with the Hornets. This is a bit odd. The Celtics were very vocal about how key he was to their success, and he was willing to stay, but he wanted four years and they would only offer him three. The money was essentially the same - Boston was offering the full mid-level exemption - so the fact that they wouldn’t go for one year seems like a bad one. Either that or they were overstating Posey’s impact.

Now the Packers are accusing the Vikings of tampering with Favre. This whole story is never, ever going to go away. I don’t have kids, but I know that my grandkids will still be hearing about this attention whore and his  latest flirtation with a comeback.

Riccardo Ricco won two stages if the Tour de France this year. And now he got busted for doping - EPO. What a shock.

Magglio Ordonez has been activated and will rejoin the Tigers. That should be a huge boost for a team that I still like to win the AL Central.

Yao Ming returned to action in an exhibition game China played against Serbia. It was his first time in a game in six months. I bet that the Rockets wish that there was some way that they could keep their giant out of Olympic action.

The more I think about it, the more I think that there might be some value in taking the Raiders over 6.5 regular season wins given that it is at +147 at Pinnacle. I may be spending too much time in the sun without a hat.

Casino Drive, the intriguing Japanese star who missed the Belmont with a bruised foot, is in quarantine in Japan preparing for a return to the U.S. It appears that he will run a prep race in California, perhaps the Goodwood, en route to the Breeders’ Cup Classic. This horse is such a strange situation - he hasn’t raced since the Peter Pan in May. He’s just so darned talented, though, that you can’t entirely discounted. I have Breeders’ Cup tickets for Santa Anita this year, so I really hope he makes it.