Maddux Sports Blog

Four rounds and 72 holes weren’t enough to determine the winner of the U.S. Open. In most tournaments that would mean that they played an extra hole or two and ended up with a winner. Not at the Open. Their playoff is at least 18 more holes, and more beyond that if needed. On paper the final is a total mismatch. On one hand you have the greatest golfer ever born, Tiger Woods (I make that pronouncement confidently and without qualification). On the other hand you have a 45 year old guy in Rocco Mediate who hasn’t won a tournament since the Greater Greensboro Chrysler Classic in 2002. Tiger has won 13 Majors. Mediate has four top tens, and before this year had never finished better than fourth. In the last eight Majors, Tiger has three wins and three seconds. Over the same stretch, Mediate has only played in two - a withdraw and a cut. Woods is ridiculously more qualified. It isn’t even close.

Given all of that, it isn’t at all surprising that Tiger is an overwhelming favorite (-382 at Pinnacle). I wouldn’t give that a thought if it weren’t for the fact that Tiger is clearly not at 100 percent with hs knee. If he was then he would have eaten the rest of the field for lunch when he went into the final round with a lead. Instead he struggled and needed a miracle putt to force this playoff. That’s not how it was supposed to turn out today. It also means that you can’t help but wonder if the fat +352 price on the underdog is fat enough to make it worth a bet. Can he beat a guy who is so incredibly good, but was so obviously hurting on Saturday that there were legitimate rumors that he might not even play on Sunday?

Woods is the deserved favorite, but here are three reasons why Mediate may be worth a shot. It might not be the best bet ever, but at the very least it is more interesting betting on the cagey underdog than the robotic favorite, and it makes a much better story if you win:

1. Tiger’s injury - I am so sick of hearing about Tiger’s meniscus that I just might puke. No matter how overplayed and over-discussed the knee injury might be, it is crucially important here. He clearly isn’t healthy. If this were a short playoff then I wouldn’t be that worried because he could rely on adrenaline to play through it. It’s a full round, though, so this is a totally different thing. Tiger was worse physically on Saturday than Friday, and worse on Sunday than Saturday. There is a very real chance that he will be even worse on Monday. How big is that chance? Hard to tell, but if I had to quantify the chances it would be far more likely that he will struggle physically than these odds suggest. That’s a check mark in Rocco’s favor.

2. Rocco’s experience - Mediate isn’t a PGA superstar, and he never has been in his career, but he has been around the block. And around it again. And around a few more times. He turned pro in 1986, and he has overcome serious injuries and setbacks to win five PGA events. That’s more than a lot of guys can claim, including several major winners. He’s seen and done enough that he probably isn’t going to melt down under pressure. He’s been around Woods for a long time, he knows all about how to perform and what it takes, and he shouldn’t be intimidated in the playoff. Don’t get me wrong - Tiger has a massive edge in experience. It’s just that I have a lot more faith in Mediate when it comes to withstanding the pressure than I would in most guys. On the plus side, Mediate has never played an 18 hole playoff for a Major, but then neither has Woods. On that count they are in the same boat.

3. Nothing to lose - Mediate isn’t an idiot, so he knows that this is quite likely his last shot to win a Major. He’s 45, his back is a wreck, and he has struggled to make a cut this year, so his PGA career is on borrowed time and he knows it. That could be depressing, but he sure isn’t playing like it this week. If he has the right mindset on Monday then he will be able to let it all hang out and aggressively go for it because there is truly no reason to do anything else. I can’t profess to know much about Mediate, so I can’t say how he will respond in the final. The chance that he will rise up and shine (like he already has) combined with everything else that is a factor here, makes him an entertaining and not at all disastrous bet. It’s not the way to get rich quick, but I don’t think it is throwing money away, either. I look at it this way - there is no way in the world I would bet on Tiger at his price, so Mediate can’t be that unattractive.

I love sports more than almost everything (I say almost because my wife occasionally reads this). That being said, a lot of what goes on in sports these days drives me insane. I can’t handle all of the peripheral scandals and issues that surround sports these days. I long for a time when we can just sit down and watch sports without having to worry about everything else surrounding the sports. Sports are supposed to be a way to escape obnoxious issues, but now obnoxious issues are overrunning sports. Changing that would be difficult (probably impossible) but here are 10 guys that could help my cause if they would just go away:

Tim Donaghy - You’re a scum referee who made all sorts of bad decisions. You’re not going to save yourself or earn respect by pointing fingers at other officials. Everyone who has watched more than one NBA game in their life knows that the refereeing stinks and favors better teams and players, and that it is kinder to the home game, and changes from the beginning of a game to the end. You have told us nothing we didn’t know, and all you have done is distracted the attention from an interesting and tradition-filled finals.

Plaxico Burress - You’re a decent receiver. You are getting old. You will make $3.5 million a year for the next three years. You are not hard done by or disrespected by that. Shut up and start practicing.

Chad Johnson - You are one of the best in the league when you want to be. Your celebrations are mostly hilarious. Your whining is ridiculous. You only get to whine when your team doesn’t suck, so quit sucking and then we’ll be happy to hear anything you have to say.

Milton Bradley - The guy can hit, but he’s a menace. In his latest outburst he heard something he didn’t like from a Royals TV color commentator, so he stormed out of the dressing room to try to find the guy and beat the hell out of him. I like the guy as a player, but no player is worth as much drama and ridiculousness as Bradley demands.

The Steinbrenner family - Your team sucks because you have managed it badly. Look at teams that win - they all have very good pitching. You used to have a great rotation. You won then. You don’t now. You lose. Shut up and figure it out.

Jim Tressel - This is just a personal thing. I hate Ohio State, I hate that stupid sweater vest, I hate that Michigan seems to have forgotten how to kick Buckeye butt, and I hate that his team keeps embarrassing the best conference in college football in bowl season.

Joe Dumars - Self-awareness is the key to success in life. You need to look in the mirror, Joe. You have had several of the best coaches in basketball at the helm of your team. None have been good enough for you. Maybe it’s you.

Curt Schilling - You’re an injured, washed up geezer who was once a decent pitcher. You do lots of good things for charity, but why in the world do you think that we should care what you think about everything? Just shut up and get healthy.

Cedric Benson - If you are dumb enough to screw up multiple times and throw away a golden opportunity which is handed to you on a silver platter then I don’t care about you. I picked on Benson here, but there are a disturbing number of guy, mostly but not exclusively in football, who could just as easily have been here in his place.

Danilo Gallinari - This is the Italian punk who has said he will only play in the NBA if he is drafted by a team in New York or New Jersey. I am sick to death of young kids who have proven nothing and may turn into nothing holding teams for ransom. Danilo, Eli, and the rest of you can all go away.

In the first shocking upset of Euro 2008, Croatia stunned Germany 2-1 on Friday. It was exciting and unpredictable, and it may lead to riots in both Germany and Croatia, but what does it really mean? In short, not much.

First things first - Germany is not going to miss the second round. They have already beaten Poland, and they are going to cruise by Austria. That will ensure that  they will finish second. They won’t finish first, but the top two teams from each group make it, so they will be just fine.

What it does mean is that the Germans will play Portugal in the first round. Again, it doesn’t really matter. the two teams were heavily favored to play on June 25 in the second round, so now they will just play six days sooner. It’s not ideal, but the teams were going to have to play at some point, so it doesn’t really matter when it is. It’s not like finishing second costs the Germans home field advantage or anything meaningful. Croatia benefits because they get an easier first opponent (likely the Czech Republic), but the winner of that game will be heavy underdogs against the winner of the other game. In other words, nothing has changed for the Germans - they still have to beat Portugal and another solid but beatable team to make the final.

Should we trust the Germans less now? Not really. The team was shocked, but they didn’t play horribly. More significantly, they are well coached and they are experienced in big tournaments, so they will learn from the mistakes they made, and they won’t make them again. Germany got caught once, but I don’t think they’ll get caught again.

My advice - take whatever opinion you had of the Germans before this disaster and don’t change it. ALl this loss will do is provide a little more value on their lines in the next game or two.

The thing every baseball fan seems to want to talk about right now is whether Chipper Jones can hit .400 on the year. He’s at .419 as of today, and he is hitting like a demon. Since I’m a baseball fan, and because we should see a prop on the issue pretty soon (there may already be one out there, but I haven’t seen it), I figured I would weigh in with my opinion and some analysis.

First, let’s cut to the chase. Is he going to do it? In a word, no. Absolutely not. Need more than that? Here are five of my reasons (I could come up with several more if I had to, but only one good reason in favor of him doing it - I want him to):

OBP - On-base percentage isn’t directly correlated to batting average, but it is pretty close. The real connection is this - You need to have a very good on-base percentage to hit .400. Right now Jones does - .504. The problem is that that is 63 points higher than his previous career best, and that was way back in 1999. We have no good reason to believe that his on-base percentage can stay as high as it is, so I find it hard to believe that the average will stay high.

Strikeouts to walks - Part of Jones’ success is that he has been walking quite a bit and not striking out much. The walks don’t help his average at all, but they do show that he is being patient, and that patience is needed to have a h uge average. Strikeouts are the oppsoite - they hurt your average and show you aren’t being patient. This year Jones has had 1.56 walks for every strikeout. That’s higher than he has ever had. Last year he had 1.09, and he hit .337. In 13 full years he has had four seasons in which he has had more strikeouts than walks, and his career best ratio was 1.48 way back in 2000. His career average is 1.08. He’s not likely to sustain his current pace. As significantly, over the course of his career he has struck out about 15.5 percent of the time he has batted. This year he is at just 11.3 percent. He’s not likely to sustain that, either, and that will directly impact his average. Last year he struck out 14.6 percent of the time, and he had his best hitting year.

What it would take - He has played 60 games this year and has hit .419. He has missed six games. That means that there are 96 games left. Assuming he will miss games at the same rate for the rest of the year he will play 87 more games. In order to hit .400 on the year (or more specifically, .3995, because that’s all it takes), he would have to hit .386 down the stretch. That’s a big accomplishment for a guy who has never hit better than .337 on a year. Too big. Looking at it another way, he is averaging 3.7 at-bats per game, so he is on pace to finish with 544 at-bats. To hit .400 he would need 217 hits. He has never had more than 189. That many hits isn’t impossible, but he will likely need even more than that because his on-base percentage will fall. He will need to significantly beat his career best even to have a chance, and I can’t bet on that. For perspective, consider this - in 2004 IchiroSuzuki had 262 hits and he only hit .372. Jones has a long, long way to go.

History - There’s a reason that no one has hit .400 since 1941 - it’s really, really hard. It’s harder now than it was then because pitchers are more rested and bullpens are more specialized, so there are fewer soft spots for hitters to exploit. Jones is on a great pace, but others very good hitters have been above .400 in June or later and still not pulled it off - Todd Helton, Roberto Alomar, Wade Boggs, Paul O’Neill, Rod Carew, Tony Gwynn, Larry Walker, Nomar Garciaparra, John Olerud. If none of those guys have done it, it’s hard to believe that Jones can. For perspective on the difficulty of the task, look at George Brett in 1980. He was at .400 on September 19, but didn’t finish above the mythical mark. He only hit .304 in his last 13 games.The odds are stacked against Jones.

Health - So far this year Jones has missed a game or two five different times. The problem has twice been back spasms. The other three times it was a version of a right leg problem - a groin, and a strained and a slightly torn quad. None of those injuries have proven to be serious, but they all raise concerns. If his back is a problem he can’t swing properly. If his leg is a problem then he can’t run as well as he should be able to, and he won’t beat out the throws at first that he needs to to get his hits. He may stay completely healthy, but it’s hard to bet on that.

The Cards are solidly in charge of the NL wild card race right now, but their chances suffered a significant setback today. He is expected to miss at least three weeks after tests confirmed that he had strained his calf. He hurt it chasing down a ground ball last night in Cincinnati, and at first the team feared it was torn, so it could have been worse. Still, the team already has injury woes, and Pujols is obviously key to everything they do.

Plaxico Burress refuses to practice without a new contract, even though he has three years remaining on a deal that will pay him $3.5 million a year. The Super Bowl swollen head curse strikes again. It’s not a wonder that it is so hard for a team to stay at the top once they get there.

All eyes are on Rajon Rondo’s ankle after he twisted it last night in game three. The Boston point guard has a bone bruise, and he says that he is 50 percent. He missed practice today, but he says he will play on Thursday. On one hand, this isn’t a big problem either way because they have Eddie House and Sam Cassell as backups. On the other hand, game three showed that the Lakers are more than a handful if they playing well, and the Celtics really need to have all of their tools in place. He could be a major factor in the ultimate outcome of the series.

Portugal beat the Czech Republic 3-1 today at Euro 2008, and cemented their position among the elite of the tournament. Cristian Ronaldo was impressive, and the team played a flowing offensive style that was alternately aggressive and patient as the situation demanded. They have already clinched the top spot in group A, and their inevitable match against Germany in the semi-finals has the potential to be the best game in the tournament and quite possibly the one that will produce the ultimate winner.

I was interested to see that the powers that be with USA Basketball have decided not to have a tryout camp for the next version of the Dream Team. Instead, they will choose the 12 players themselves before the team gets together the first time. Interesting. It means that they can get right down to practicing, but it has the potential to backfire if the roster doesn’t perform as well as it should.

Major soccer tournaments are one of my favorite betting opportunities. Every aspect of the World Cup and Euro is covered in the international press, the coaching staffs and players are far more candid than most sports, and all of the games are available to be seen, and scheduled in such a way that you can see them. Because of that I was very excited when Euro 2008 started on Saturday, and I have been watching closely. All 16 teams in the tournament have now played one game, so it is a good time to look back on what we have seen so far to see which teams look good and which ones really don’t. You don’t have to be a major soccer fan to enjoy these tournaments or do well betting on them. I only tune into world soccer for about six weeks every two years.

Impressive

Spain - Spain absolutely destroyed the Russians. It was 4-1, but it could just as easily have been 9-0. David Villa had three goals for the winners, and he played one of the all-time great single games in international soccer history. No kidding. The Spanish had reasonably high hopes coming into the tournament, but they have a long history of being incredibly disappointing when it matters most. On top of it all, they were playing the Russians, and they are newly coached by Guus Hiddink, the guy who has previously performed international miracles with Korea and Australia. The setting was prime for the Spaniards to have an off game, but instead they played about as well as they could. They were already favored to win Group D, but now it isn’t even a contest.

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The Bulls seem determined to make a truly bizarre coaching choice. The latest man to  rise to the top of the pile is Vinny Del Negro. His biggest asset in the search is that he isn’t Doug Collins.  You probably remember Del Negro from his days  as a somewhat average player who bounced around five NBA teams and a couple in Europe for good measure. He had a good college career at NC State under Jim Valvano, and he comes from a basketball family - his dad played for Adolph Rupp at Kentucky. There’s just one problem with an otherwise solid coaching resume - he’s never coached at any level before. Hmmm. He was a broadcaster for a while after he retired before joining the front office of the Suns, peaking at assistant general manager. I’m sure he’s a good guy, and he obviously gave one heck of an interview, but it seems odd that a team with so much on the line (a solid roster, the number one pick, etc.) would give the keys to a guy who has never driven. It’s also a relatively unique-to-basketball thing. The NBA seems much more likely to give a job to an unproven guy than any other league. In the NHL you have to cut your teeth in the minors or as an assistant (unless you are Wayne Gretzky, and Del Negro is no Gretzky). You have to put in your time in baseball, too. The NFL wouldn’t hire someone who isn’t an established assistant or a college coach.  This would be like the Raiders firing Lane Kiffin and hiring Scott Pioli to take his place. Doesn’t make much sense, but I wish the Bulls well. At least I will be able to find something else to be fascinated by once they make this hiring official.

Speaking of Chicago sports, Cedric Benson finally got what was coming to him from the Bears.He was cut loose today. The reason given was that he was arrested a second time and generally had a bad attitude. The real reason, though, is that he sucks at football. There has been much discussion online today over what impact this will have on the team (and by extension how it will affect the decisions bettors have to make about the team). The answer, of course, is not very much. Matt Forte can be at least as good as Benson is, and he’s likely much less trouble, too. I still haven’t decided quite how I feel about the Bears this year, but this change won’t make me think any less of them.

The Mets are two games under .500 and they just got swept by the Padres. They were favored in all four games. If you had flat bet every game all season you’d be down almost 10 units. I don’t even know how to count the ways in which that all doesn’t make any sense. If I owned the Mets I think I’d fold them.

LSU needed a win over UC-Irvine tonight to make it to the College World Series. The bad news is that the Tigers allowed seven runs to raise a few questions about the defense. The good news is that they countered that by scoring 21. No need to worry about the offense as they head to Omaha. We’ll take a look for betting opportunities in this tournament later in the week.

I Still haven’t recovered from the bitter disappointment of the Belmont, and I doubt I will for a while. A couple of thoughts on that before I move on in this forum, though. First, I am very disappointed by how the media has handled this whole steroids issue. They made such a big deal of Big Brown’s usage of Winstrol while missing a couple of key issues. First, the drug is perfectly legal and can and is regularly prescribed by veterinarians. That means that Dutrow was doing absolutely nothing wrong by using it. Next, they focused heavily on Big Brown and the drug while not pushing other trainers on it. Nick Zito refused to answer steroid questions, which means that Da’ Tara almost certainly won the race on steroids. I have no problem with that because it is legal, but I have a huge problem with the fact that Dutrow was so persecuted over the issue and that it was blown so badly out of proportion. Dutrow has done a lot wrong in the past, but he deserved better during the course of this race. Athletes and those involved in sports have a long history of talking ridiculous trash (some guy name Ali, for example), yet somehow Dutrow was the devil on earth for being cocky, arrogant and incredibly entertaining. Ridiculous.

I believe we’ll see Big Brown again, and I hope I am right. The projected current path - the Jim Dandy, Travers and Breeders’ Cup is exactly what Bernardini used two years ago, and it would be perfect. The performance in the Belmont was terrible, but I don’t think we can lose track of the fact that this is still a freak of a horse. I can’t begin to explain what will happen, but it hasn’t changed my long term view of the horse, or the burning desire I feel to see him and Curlin hook up at the Breeders’ Cup.

Enough horse racing talk. It’s just depressing right now. Other things that caught my eye this weekend:

When I saw that Rafael Nadal was at -314 to win the French Open final over Roger Federer I wasn’t that surprised, though I thought maybe it wasn’t giving Federer quite enough respect. Turns out that it was a price packed full of value. Nadal may never lose at that tournament. The win over Federer was so dominant that it looked like he was toying with a qualifier, not the best player in the world on every surface that isn’t red. Jaw dropping.

Floyd Mayweather Jr.’s decision to retire was just bizarre. He would have made $20 million to fight De La Hoya, and he could have beat him with his eyes closed. Unlike many, though, I don’t think that boxing is worse off if he stays away. He is a spectacular fighter, but it has been a while since he has shown the desire to prove it. This move could open the door for Kelly Pavlik to unify the welterweight titles and become the star he deserves to be, or for Miguel Cotto or Ricky Hatton to step up. Mayweather is a great showman, but there are hungrier competitors out there now in a very deep welterweight division, and that makes for a better, more interesting sport in the long run. Now, if the rumors are true and Mayweather is about to join the UFC then things get really, really interesting. I kinda doubt it will happen, but I don’t rule anything out when it comes to Money.

Doug Collins will not be coaching the Bulls. It must be a very good day to be a Chicago sports fan.

Ty Lawson is a moron. No better way to impress NBA teams and prove you are worth an investment than getting busted for DWI when you are supposed to be getting ready for the draft. Maybe this will turn teams off of him and he’ll end up back at UNC. That seems like a better place for him this year, anyway - a good shot at a national title seems like more fun than trying to get off the bench in the pros.

Matt Hughes lost at UFC 85. Not only that, but he got badly beaten up. I love the guy, but I really hope that we have seen the last of him - he’s no longer what he once was.

I’ll say darn, but rest assured that that isn’t the word I have in mind.

I don’t know why horse racing hates me so much.

I am counting the seconds until post time for the Belmont. It’s not hard, because they are passing so slowly. I have been waiting for a Triple Crown for most of my life, and I believe that the wait could and should be coming to an end. I’ve felt that several times before, and I have had my heart broken by each impressive horse - Alysheba, Silver Charm, Real Quiet, Funny Cide, and Smarty Jones more than the others. Something seems different this year, though - Big Brown is more of a freak than past horses in this situation, and the field contains fewer landmines (I want to be clear that I am not nearly as negative about this crop of three year olds as most people, but I just don’t think that there is a horse of Big Brown’s class) than recent years.

I think Big Brown will win handily (like everyone else on the planet), and I think that he will be well below his 2/5 morning line by post time. That means that the race will not be a good source of profit unless something bizarre happens. I can’t pass on the race, though, so I am going to make two different bets. First, I will bet Big Brown to win (just two dollars, and I likely won’t cash the ticket if he wins - I’m a hopeless romantic when it comes to racing). For a shot at making at least a little profit I will look to the superfecta. I will obviously key Big Brown on top, and I am going to buy into the hype because of the need to create an affordable ticket and key Casino Drive in second. That means I can afford to have a bunch of horses under those two. I’m going to have Macho Again, Icabad Crane, Denis of Cork and Tale of Ekati in the third spot and I might add Ready’s Echo and Anak Nakal to the bottom to make it an even $20 ticket. It won’t pay much, but it will it will at least give me something to cheer for. Not that I will need it.

The interesting thing to watch is going to be how the race plays out. Outside of Big Brown, the only horse that seems to be interested in the lead is Da’ Tara. That horse doesn’t have anywhere near the quality to stay at the lead to the end, so Kent Desormeaux won’t be too worried about him because Big Brown can probably brush him aside whenever he wants to. On the other hand, Casino Drive is the first horse he has faced with a closing kick that can even remotely rival his own. On top of it all, Desormeaux has to deal with the inside post and will have to make sure that his horse doesn’t get trapped somewhere he wants to be. Desormeaux could go for the lead early, but he has the memory of doing so with Real Quiet and then running out of gas just before the finish line. He could settle back and wait until a better time to make a move. This race is more than long enough to reward patience, but Desormeaux showed in the backstretch of the Preakness that he will go to great lengths to avoid being boxed in. He could try to move outside as quickly as he can to stay out of trouble. With so many options it will be interesting to see what strategy is employed for Big Brown, and how aggressively the other jockeys are riding to beat him. Jerry Bailey took all sorts of criticism in 2004 when it looked like he was riding to beat Smarty Jones instead of to win the race himself.

I’ll warn you now - if Big Brown doesn’t win I’ll be pouting in this space for weeks.

Is it just me, or does it seem a bit crazy that we are almost a week into June and there is still another series to play? Basketball and summer should not be sharing space. Thankfully, I don’t see this series taking up as much time as it should. Pretty much every major or minor media outlet I have seen in the last couple of days has tabbed the Lakers to win, and most have them doing it in five or six games. Normally I like to be a bit of a contrarian, but I just can’t do it here. I think the Lakers are going to win, and I think they will do it convincingly.

My reasons aren’t particularly profound. Kobe Bryant is so hungry and determined that I wouldn’t be surprised if someone told me that he eats live kittens for breakfast. Phil Jackson makes Kobe look like a pacifist. Those two guys know how to win, and they are both pretty desperate for that feeling. On the other side you have a team led by a guy, Kevin Garnett, that has made a career out of early playoff exits and a coach who has never before made it out of the first round. On that basis alone I’d take the Lakers. I also don’t think that the Celtics have seen many offenses like the Lakers have (because there aren’t many), and I’m not convinced that they can effectively contain it. The Lakers have a habit of turning games into shootouts, and I don’t see how Boston is going to keep up if that happens. I’m a little nervous because it seems so clear and that is never a good thing, but I’m still going to stick with it.

There is one interesting anomaly in it all. The Lakers are pretty much universally backed, yet the Celtics are favored in the first game. It’s only 2.5 points so it isn’t overwhelming, but what is interesting is that about 60 percent of bettors are on the Celtics. That means that most people think that the Lakers will win and they will do it in less than seven, but they won’t win game one. Sometimes bettors don’t make a lot of sense when you look too closely.

The MLB draft goes tomorrow. It used to be that a bettor could afford to ignore this event because it was going to be a while until the players were relevant. That’s no longer the case. The 2007 draft’s impact hasn’t yet been felt, but seven of the top ten players from 2006 are already in the pros, and a couple - Evan Longoria and Tim Lincecum- are well on their way to stardom. This year, again, there are several players who could step right into the lineup in a year or so and contribute. That means that getting familiar with them now will help you to take advantage of their appearances when they do show up. Here’s a quick look at the players who are likely to go at the top of the draft. We aren’t going to see nearly as many pitchers go in recent years. In fact, we might only see one go in the top ten.

Buster Posey, C, Florida State - You might recognize this guy as the one who recently played all nine positions in a game. You might also soon recognize him as the top pick in the draft. He might not have the biggest upside in the draft, but he is probably the closest to being ready. He has the potential to be an all-star for many years.Tampa bay is obviously pretty close to being the real deal, so they probably won’t want to draft someone they have to wait on.

Tim Beckham, SS, Griffin HS (Georgia) - If Posey doesn’t go first overall then Beckham likely will. He’s risky because he is young and a lot can change in the few years it will take him to make it. On the other hand, he has probably the biggest potential upside in the draft, and some team will take the risk. He probably won’t make it past Pittsburgh in the second spot, but will almost certainly be gone by the time Kansas City has picked third.

Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Vanderbilt - This is a clear sign that Vanderbilt is doing something right - Alvarez could go first and won’t go worse than third last year, and David Price went first overall last year. Alvarez has serious offensive upside, and he is versatile enough to move around the infield if need be.

Brian Matusz, LHP, University of San Diego - Matusz is potentially the only pitcher in the top ten. He had a complete game shutout in regional action last week, and he has been consistently impressive. I have him going to Baltimore fourth, but that could change.

Gordon Beckham, SS, University of Georgia - What are the chances of two shortstops from Georgia named Beckham who aren’t related landing in the top ten? Seems bizarre, but it will probably happen. He’s a remarkably good hitter for a shortstop, and he is competent enough in the field. His advantage is that he can make it through the minors and contribute to a team that needs the help. The buzz surrounding him and the Giants is huge, and they will soon need the next Omar Vizquel. The pieces fit.

Kyle Shipworth, C, Patriot High School (California) - This is the closest thing to a lock on the board. He’s not likely to go in the top five, and he almost certainly won’t get past the Marlins in sixth. They need serious catching help, and this guy has been tearing it up in high school. This guy could redefine power for the catcher position if he makes it.

Justin Smoak, 1B, South Carolina and Yonder Alonso, 1B, Miami - I put these two guys together because they are largely interchangeable. They are both first baseman with very heavy bats. The Reds, White Sox, Washington and Houston all need power in their system, so these two guys will likely go to some combination of those four teams from seven to ten. They could even go sooner.

Eric Hosmer, 1B, American Heritage HS (Florida) - The only difference between Hosmer and the previous two is that he is still in high school so he will likely take longer to come along. His talent is impressive, and he’ll also likely not make it out of the top ten.

Aaron Crow, RHP, Missouri - This is the other pitcher who could go in the top ten. Like Matusz he had a complete game shutout in regional play. There isn’t really a lot to differentiate him from the other pitcher, so it comes down to what teams prefer.

Brett Lawrie, 2B, Brookswood HS (B.C.) - As a Canadian I have to mention this kid. He has huge power. He hasn’t been getting a lot of first round talk, but he did a big tour to the Dominican and lit it up and the buzz is really strong that Cincinnati picking seventh has their eyes on him. He doesn’t really have a position - in a good way - so the Reds could pick him now and let him find his place in the minors.e

If hockey was consistently as exciting as game five was last night then it would be as popular as football. That game had it all - agony, ecstasy, ridiculous drama, incredible saves, good luck, bad luck, injury, exhaustion, heroics. It was brilliant. Pittsburgh got very, very lucky to pull it off. Or rather, they had Marc-Andre Fleury on their side. He saved the game about 100 times, and proved once and for all that he has arrived and is the real deal. Game six is now going to be fascinating. Detroit is still favored, but not by as much, and the Penguins should be flying high after the win and in front of the home crowd. Pittsburgh is currently at +118, and if they stay around there then I like them a lot.

I obviously can’t know for sure, but I’m guessing that this is not how the Joba-Chamberlain-as-a-starter era was supposed to begin. He only faced 12 batters, and only got seven outs. He was going to be on a tight pitch count, but 65 pitches should be good for more than 2.1 innings. This shows how bettors can be less than objective from time to time. The Jays were starting Roy Halladay, among a small handful of the best pitchers in the league and riding a hot streak. Chamberlain had never started before, he wasn’t going to last deep even if things went well, and the Yankees bullpen is far from ideal. With all that in mind, why were the Yankees favored? All you can do there is take the odds on Toronto and say thank you.

Big Brown had his last work before the Belmont today and his foot held up fine. A lot could happen between now and Saturday, but I have to say that I will be absolutely shocked if we don’t have a Triple Crown winner by Saturday evening.

Ozzie Guillen’s tirade about his team’s inability to hit was ridiculous (though wildly entertaining), but t obviously worked. They exploded for nine runs at home tonight, and it seems like everyone got into the action. Of course, it was against the Royals, so it hardly counts. It did come against Zack Greinke, though, and he is one of the few bright spots on that dismal team, though you’d never guess it if tonight was the first time you had seen him.

The Celtics are favored in game one, but only by 2.5, which is less than the home court advantage. If you like the Celtics then you’re probably a pretty happy person right about now.

After blowing their chance to even the Stanley Cup final with Detroit at two games a piece on home ice despite scoring the first goal of the game on Saturday, Pittsburgh is in dire straits. They now have to head into the hostile Joe Louis Arena in Detroit to win a game from a team and a crowd that has won it all before and knows and loves the smell of blood in the water. The sportsbooks really don’t like their chances - Detroit is a very solid -230 favorite for game five. If they do manage to pull off a miraculous win tonight all they have to do is win two more in a row against the best team in the league and the hottest goaltender on the planet. Not an easy task for anyone, never mind a team that’s core is made up of guys that are too young to grow a playoff beard. Playoff peach fuzz reigns in Pittsburgh.

It looks like an uphill battle for the Penguins tonight, but they can pull it off, can’t they? The short answer is no, probably not, but let’s take a closer look.

Let’s start with history. This does not make it look good for the underdogs. A team has come back from a 3-1 deficit in the finals before, but not for 66 years. Recent history is no more forgiving. All the team has to do is win two games in a building that they have yet to score a goal  in. Two straight shutouts started this series, and the Pens will have those bitter memories bouncing around in their heads. That’s not the only problem. Pittsburgh has a truly explosive offense but they have score just four goals in four games, and they have been shut down by Detroit. Sidney Crosby has been very good, and Marian Hossa has been solid, but Evgeni Malkin has been invisible, and the secondary scoring hasn’t existed.

Handicapping this series comes down to just one thing - what do you think the mental state of the team is? If Pittsburgh realizes that they have nothing to lose and they can se their situation as a rallying point then they can make a contest of this. If you buy into that then you’ll like the juicy longshot price you can get in game 5. On the other hand, the team could dwell on the fact that Detroit has been better, faster, and stronger and has dominated them in pretty much every aspect of the series. If that’s where the thoughts lie, or at least where the majority of them do, then the game could be ugly tonight.

For me, it comes down to this - I’ll be cheering for Pittsburgh to make the series interesting, but I can’t justify betting against Detroit. Sadly, I won’t be betting on them either given the price.  I guess I’ll satisfy my habits tonight by betting on baseball and watching hockey.

The Cubs are as hot as can be. They just capped off a seven game home stand with seven wins and now they head out to play easily winnable series against San Diego and the Dodgers. I’d like this team much better, though, if they could play on the road. They have the best record in baseball, and the best home record in baseball, but they are just 10-13 on the road. In their last three road trips they have gone 2-4, 2-4, and 2-3. I have faith that if anyone can turn that around it is Lou Piniella, but until he does I will have a real tough time buying into this team for the long haul. They were 41-40 last year on the road, so they do have the ability to be decent. The disparity between the two records in hurting bettors, too - they are the second most profitable home team behind the Red Sox, but they are significant betting losers on the road. If you want a plus side to it all, I suppose that their road struggles might keep their home prices a bit more reasonable.

Speaking of Chicago baseball, is there a more entertaining guy in all of baseball than White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen? His team lost three straight in Tampa bay, and he didn’t like it at all. He basically blew up his team, saying that general manager Kenny Williams had better make some changes by Tuesday or he’s going to do it himself by turning the lineup upside down nightly until he finds some much needed hits. He even went as far as to say that Williams could fire him if he thought it would create hits. Guillen is entertainingly ridiculous, but he’s right in this case - the team is in first place in a terrible division and they have the playoffs in the palm of their hand, but they just need to hit like they should be able to on paper.

I really like the Reds. Not this year, but soon. Jay Bruce is obviously a freak 13-for-22 is a pretty good way to start a major league career), and he’s joined by talented guys with long futures like Joey Votto, Ryan Freel, and Brandon Phillips. There is a lot to like on the pitching staff, too. Edinson Volquez is more than impressive, and Johhny Cueto had another strong start tonight. He’s young and inconsistent, but his stuff is nasty and when he figures it out he’ll be scary. Aaron Harang is underrated, too. They are a solid 19-10 at home, and, like so many teams in the league, they would be competitive if they could learn to play on the road. They finally have good management in place, and the future seems pretty darned bright.