Maddux Sports Blog

Eric Gagne is off the DL. He has been there since May 21 with tendinitis in his rotator cuff. He passed a 30 pitch bullpen test and will be active starting tonight. Milwaukee fans sitting in the outfield will want to be sure that they have their gloves with them when Gagne hits the mound. This guy seems to have forgotten how to pitch.

The Braves are in a world of hurt when it comes to starting pitching. Tim Hudson is the only guy in their rotation currently who has more than 10 career wins. I did not make a mistake writing that. Jair Jurrens, Charlie Morton and Jorge Campillo are rookies. Jo-Jo Reyes might as well be one. Injuries have led to this extreme youth movement. It would be a mistake to assume that the team is in trouble because of the youth, but you couldn’t be blamed for doubting the team if the pitchers are going to face a strange situation for a first time. Unfortunately, the public will likely mostly bet the value out of the youngsters.

Though it is being written and talked about too much, the showdown series between the Rays and the Red Sox should be a doozy this week. The previous games between these two has been and odd one - the home team has swept all three series. Tampa plays host in this one. The series starts with a great matchup - the quietly solid Justin Masterson takes the mound for Boston against Tampa’s ace James Shields. To be fair, it’s a bit of a stretch to call Shields the ace right now. He finally got a win against Florida last time out to go to 5-5, but that was his first win since the beginning of May. The team is 4-2 in his last six starts, though, and he is a very talented starter.

I’m thrilled that stupid interleague play is finally over. Not as thrilled as the National League is, though.

The NBA draft is over and it is pretty much time for us all to move on from that and from draft fascination for another year. Before I do that, though, there is one last thing that I want to touch on - a personal pet peeve. The second round of the NBA draft is ridiculous. A total waste of time. It should be eliminated immediately.

The contracts in the second round aren’t guaranteed. That means that one of three things happen. It’s not rare for a guy to find himself a roster spot, and even to become a contributing player. About as often, though, a guy isn’t good enough, or he isn’t given a chance, and he’s a free agent before the season even starts. The third and most annoying possibility is that a team picks a European project and stashes him in Europe forever. None of those are particularly interesting, none add a lot to the league, and there is a better way to accomplish all of it. Free agency. If a player doesn’t get picked in the first round then they should become free agents immediately. There are a pile of good reasons for this, but here are five for now:

1. Keep more kids in school - The second round acts as a safety net for too many marginal players. They think that they have a shot at making the first round and they know that they will make the second if they don’t, so they leave school early. If nothing else they earn themselves a spot at a training camp. If you took away that safety net then more kids would be more inclined to stay in school longer and college basketball would benefit.

2. Help kids who are good enough to come out - A player picked in the second round really is a second rate citizen. Free agency would help their causes. Currently they don’t get anything at all unless they make the team. Under free agency, players that were good enough to contribute to a team would be in a position to negotiate a contract with some form of guarantee in it.

3. Free agency would create more interest for fans - The second round creates pretty much no buzz. In fact, people seem to dismiss players in the second round because they know the reality of their position. If unpicked players became free agents as soon as the first round ended then there could be a signing frenzy for the players much like there is after the NFL draft. Properly promoted, that could be far more interesting than the current situation.

4. European players could be brought over when they are ready to play - It would make for a much more interesting situation if European players were free agents until they decided to come over and play in the NBA. That would make their eventual acquisition more competitive, and it would make European scouting a much more precise science, and therefore one with higher stakes.

5. Teams don’t care - Just look at the number of trades made this year in which a team traded several second round picks down the road for something now. That shows how much value teams think that the picks have - not much. The NBA was improved by cutting the draft down to two spots, and it would be further helped by this additional cuts.

After a great tournament full of action, upsets, and surprises, the final is set and we will see Spain and Germany meet up on Sunday for the final. There were some surprising teams in the elimination round, and one that few predicted in the semi-finals, but this final comes as little surprise. Indeed, Germany was expected, and Spain was one of the handful of realistically contenders from their side of the draw. SPain goes into the final favored. I like Germany. Here are six reasons why:

1. I don’t trust Spain. They have unquestionably been the best, most consistent team in this tournament so far. They haven’t won this tournament in 44 years, though, and they have a long history of failing to come through when it matters most. They are chronic underachievers, and I don’t feel good about betting that they have rid themselves of that habit when it will cost me a premium to do so.

2. Germany is under-respected. Coming into the tournament the Germans were quite significantly favored to win the tournament. They suffered a humiliating, shocking early loss. Since then, though, they have done exactly what was expected of them. They waltzed past Portugal, and then kept their cool to get past a feisty, unlikely Turkish team that had been the story of the tournament. I understand why the love affair with the Germans may have cooled for many, but I don’t get why they have fallen so far behind the Spaniards in the eyes of the public.

3. Germany rebounds brilliantly. After they lost to Croatia they came back well next time out. They didn’t play their best game against Turkey, but  I have more faith in their ability to learn from that and make the necessary adjustments than I do any team in this tournament.

4. Injuries. Spain will be playing without David Villa, their offensive spark plug and the leading scorer of the tournament. They have good depth, but he is hard to replace and he was playing with incredible confidence. Germany may be without Michael Ballack, but as incredible as it may sound I don’t think that the loss of their captain is as significant as Villa is t Spain. Besides, I don’t believe that Ballack won’t be on the field.

5. People are on Spain. Germany is available as a fairly significant underdog depending on how you choose to bet them. Any time you can bet a quality team which is playing fairly well at an underdog price you have to have a pretty good reason not to do so. I don’t.

6. Playing style. The Spanish team plays a flashy, high paced offensive game. The Germans are more methodical and defensively sound. Methodical often wins out over explosive. You did see the NBA final, didn’t you?

Spain suffered a damaging, and potentially fatal, blow as they prepare for the Euro 2008 finals against Germany. Striker David Villa will miss the finals thanks to a sore hamstring. Villa is the tournament’s leading scorer, and he has been dynamite both when he is scoring and when he isn’t, so his loss is a real blow to both the team’s chances and their confidence. Spain is still fairly heavily favored to win it all (surprisingly heavily, really), but Germany becomes an even  more attractive underdog given this news.

Very strange story coming out from the NBA Draft concerning Darrell Arthur. Reportedly several teams passed on him because of news of kidney problems. Atlanta was the only team that actually tested him, though, and they gave him a clean bill of health. That news didn’t seem to get out in time, though, and he fell from a likely spot in the lottery all the way down to 27th. That will cost him a lot of money, but it also has to be ridiculously frustrating and a bit humiliating for the player. If he is the kind of guy that can use that as motivation then it could fuel a good year for him. I just can’t believe that we are getting the whole story. Surely in this age teams would have done their homework about something like that. That’s especially the case for San Antonio. THey culd have picked him one spot sooner than he was picked, but instead they went for a guy from IUPUI that no one has ever heard of that almost certainly could have been had later on. Even if the Spurs didn’t like Arthur it probably would have made sense to acquire him purely as an asset.

The White Sox crushed the Cubs today, and the  Mets humiliated the Yankees. What does it say about me that I get a perverse and profound pleasure from both developments. Unfortunately, the Yankees came back and returned the favor in the second half of the double bill.

Ana Ivanovic became the latest top three seed to fall at Wimbledon today, following Maria Sharapova and Novak Djokovic. The third round departure was the earliest exit by a number one seed since 2001. The bloodbath at the top is bad news for bettors, but the sportsbooks must be loving it because they will be making a killing from people looking to make the safe hit. I don’t expect the disaster to continue on the men’s side. In fact, I am very confident that it will be Nadal - Federer in the final. Yet again.

The Tigers have now won 14 of 18, and they are looking pretty much exactly like we expected them to (except for Dontrelle Willis, who is toiling away in obscurity in the minors somewhere). I was about to write that Tigers fans must be relieved and thrilled, but as I think about it I just think that if I was a Detroit backer I would be pissed. We knew all along that they could play like this, so why did they insist on throwing their season away with that horrendous start? Thankfully, they play in the AL Central, so the playoffs are not at all out of the question despite the fact that they have not yet returned to .500. To win the division, though, they will have to hope that the Twins remember once again that they are the Twins. Minnesota won their tenth in a row, and 12th in 13 games tonight. Talk about a team getting it done with smoke and mirrors.

The NBA Draft has arrived. It is the last of the four major drafts that fall in an unofficial two month draft season. It seems like what I should do is to make a mock draft, but that’s pretty much a waste of time - I stand no chance of being right, and there have already been trades, and there will likely be more, that make an accurate prediction of what will happen practically impossible. Instead, I’ll just look at a few notes:

1. If the Bulls do as expected they will pick Derrick Rose first. That’s going to go very well for them. I think that Rose is a special player who will soon be a superstar.

2. I think that Pat Riley must be on drugs. I can understand his desire to find a point guard to compliment Dwyane Wade, but I really don’t understand why you would pass up on Michael Beasley in the pursuit of that. Beasley is a scoring machine with a surprisingly well rounded game, and I don’t see why a team wouldn’t want that. If Riley truly decides he doesn’t want to take Beasley then I hope he trades down and gets a good package, because sticking in two and picking Mayo or Bayless would be monumentally stupid (and I like both players).

3. The best rumor I have heard all week is that Kevin Durant is pushing the Sonics to trade up and pick Beasley. He and Beasley have been friends for years, and they w ould love to play together. Wow. That would be scary to watch. My guess s that David Stern would be pretty excited by that move as well.

4. I think that Eric Gordon is eventually going to be looked at as the bargain of this draft. My guess is that the earliest he wil go is sixth to the Knicks, but if he hadn’t tailed off at the end of the season in Indiana then he would have likely been in the top three. I don’t thing you can blame him for how he finished the season given the mess that that team was, and when you watched him earlier in the year it took about three seconds to realize that you were watching greatness. He’s going to get picked behind a couple of guys who aren’t nearly as good as he is.

5. If Jerryd Bayless doesn’t end up being Miami’s pick then there is a chance that he could fall to the bottom of the lottery. That would be a major steal. I think Bayless is raw, and I am not convinced that he will end up as a full-time point guard in the pros, but the guy is so freakishly athletic it is sick. Other guys have been athletic freaks and haven’t worked out yet - paging Tyrus Thomas - but Bayless adds two more things to the mix - an impressive shooting touch, and a good game sense.

6. There are good draft classes and bad ones - this is going to be looked back upon as an impressive one, I think.

7. Likely lottery picks that don’t float my boat - Brooks Lopez (overvalued because of his height), Russell Westbrook (can”t always trust his decision making), Joe Alexander (great college story, not positive it will continue in the big time), and D.J. Augustin (thought long and hard about going back to school - he should have).

8. Best player in the bottom half of the first round? Chris Douglas-Roberts. I have a serious man-crush on the way this guy plays basketball.

9. The Knicks apparently want to move down, and they are dangling David Lee as part of a package to do so. If I was a team looking to move up I would be all over that. Lee has been pretty good in New York, and he has never been used as well as he could or should be. He’s full of upside. He’ll also be pretty happy to get out of New York because it has been a circus since he has been there, and it won’t get any better for him under Mike D’Antoni.

10. If Roy Hibbert becomes an impact pro I will eat my shirt.

11. Assuming the trade goes through, the Raptors made a heck of a trade to get Jermaine O’Neal for T.J. Ford. Ford hadn’t worked out, and if O’Neal is healthy again he could give Toronto just what they need to compete. Chris Bosh has to be a pretty happy guy right now.

Novak Djokovic is an absolute moron, and I suspect that there is no one more embarrassed on the planet right now. If you missed it, he spent a great deal of effort last week telling everyone who would listen to him that Roger Federer was vulnerable. Since Djokovic was set to play him in the semi-finals at Wimbledon if they both made it that far, the clear assumption was that Djokovic was going to beat him. I have no problem with a claim like that. You have to back it up, though. Djokovic didn’t even come close. He came out in the second round of the tournament and fell in straight sets to Marat Safin. Safin used to be good once, but those times are a distant memory. Djokovic should have been able to win the match in his sleep, but instead he looked lethargic and unfocused. Even worse, he whined his way through the whole match. Terrible. This is one more reason added to an already large pile why I don’t buy into the prevailing theory that Djokovic is a future number one.

So far, so good for the Blue Jays after their change of manager. After a seven game losing streak the team has one two in a row. More importantly, the offensively inept team has scored 22 runs in the two wins, and their 22 hits in the 14-1 win over Cincinnati last night was the best by any team all year. The most noticeable thing when you see the team play is that they are visibly relaxed. Under John Gibbons they were tense and they didn’t look like they were having any fun. Given that the change is so noticeable it seems odd that Gibbons was able to hold on so long. This team should, on paper anyway, be able to hit much better than they have been.

The best part of that Toronto - Cincinnati game last night was the line posted by Reds’ starter Bronson Arroyo. He lasted one inning, allowing 11 hits and 10 earned runs. It doesn’t take a math major to figure that that makes for an ERA of 90.00 on the game. That hurts the long-term stats - it bumps the ERA from an already dismal 5.55 to an ugly 6.52. Ouch.

I’m not an American, but my Canadian basketball team didn’t make the Olympics (it’s hard to do when Steve Nash is your only decent player and he isn’t playing on the national team any more), so when it comes to Beijing I will have to make due with cheering for the Americans. As a bandwagon fan, then, I have to say this - if the team doesn’t win the gold medal they should all retire from basketball immediately. This team is ridiculously dominant. I know that the world is catching up with them (or has mostly caught up), but it is completely impossible for a team to be as deep as the one just announced as the next version of the Dream Team.

To see how good this team is, just look at point guard. Jason Kidd will be the presumed starter. If he doesn’t get the nod, or he gets tired or is ineffective, then the backups are Chris Paul and Deron Williams. Any one of those three is as good as any point guard in the league, and likely the world. Other teams will be able to match them with a starter (maybe), but it is impossible for any team to go two deep with the Americans, never mind three deep.

The same is true everywhere else, too. Need scoring? Kobe, Lebron, Dwyane Wade, and Carmelo Anthony. Those are pretty much the four purest scorers in the league (other than Allen Iverson, and he’d be on this team if I picked it), and they are all on the same side. Need shooting? Michael Redd. Defense? Tayshaun Prince, or Carlos Boozer. Inside touch? Few better than Chris Bosh. Rebounding? Dwight Howard is the best there is right now. This team is ridiculous.

There won’t be any value in this team, but I don’t suspect that there will be any in betting against them, either.

Wimbledon gets underway today and goes on for the next two weeks. For once, the mens’ side holds some intrigue. For the last five years Roger Federer has won the title, and he has done it with ease bordering in ridiculous. This year, though, things are a bit different. He hasn’t had the dominating year he has had recently, and people aren’t nearly as scared of him as they used to be. Bjorn Borg said perhaps the most ridiculous thing in history when he suggested that Federer was done and that if and when he lost at Wimbledon he would probably retire. Novak Djokovic is only the third best player in the world, and he hasn’t had any more success beating Federer than he Rafael Nadal, but even he called out Roger this week. Their is definitely the smell of change in the air.

Let me say this as quickly and directly as I can - Roger Federer is not going to lose. He will win his sixth straight championship on the grass in front of the Queen. I’m all for guys speaking out, and it’s about time that someone grew a backbone when talking about the guy, but to view him as anything other than the solid favorite here is just ridiculous. Need a reason? Here are four:

1. He’s won five freaking titles in a row. No player in the world is more perfectly suited for the surface or plays it at such a high level. He is so far ahead of the crowd that he can win on it even if he isn’t at his best. Nadal has only won one career tournament on grass. Djokovic has yet to prove that he is ready to play with the big boys. Behind those three there is little to get excited about. David Nalbandian, the seventh seed, should have been as strong on grass as anyone, but he was upset by a little known Canadian in the first round.

2. He is coming off a final at the French. Federer isn’t particularly good on clay, and Nadal made him look foolish in the final of the French Open. That’s not the important thing. The key is that he made the final. And he has for each of the three years. He is far from the best player on the surface, yet he keeps making it through the draw. He’s just that good, and forgetting about that is just dumb.

3. You don’t fluke into 12 titles. Remember the U.S. Open a couple of weeks ago. Tiger had a torn ligament and a broken freaking leg, yet he still won. He’s better and he wants it more. Federer is the Tiger of the tennis world. The trash that everyone else is talking will only make him madder and make him want to win more. Djokovic is on track to hit Federer in the finals, so waving a red cape in front of Federer is proof of just how smart the youngster isn’t.

4. He’s still the heavy favorite. Bodog had Federer on at 1/1 to win the tournament. Nadal was next at 7/4, and Djokovic was way back at 5/1. No other player is better than 16/1. Don’t be fooled into thinking that it is particularly close.

5. He’s coming off a win. Federer won the Gerry Weber Open, a key grass prep, in his last start. He’s won that tournament five times in the last six years. The only time he didn’t win it was last year, and he didn’t play. A win there has been a pretty good indicator of solid form in the past, so there isn’t much reason to think that it’s not this year.

The Fresno State Bulldogs have made the finals of the College World Series in Omaha. To do so they knocked out North Carolina, a finalist the last two years. UNC was ranked second in the country. Fresno State was the first fourth seeded team in a regional to make the CWS, so it is certainly the first to make the finals. They were the longest shot in the field (15/1) at the start of the CWS, but they just won’t quit. Remember, before they knocked out UNC they had to eliminate Arizona State, the number three team in the country. The story gets even more Disney-like - the team is playing without their top pitcher, Tanner Scheppers, who was injured late in the regular season.

Fresno State moves on to a battle of the Bulldogs in the finals when they face Georgia. Those Bulldogs were the second longest shots on the board at the start of the tourney. Whichever Bulldogs win, this final is proof of one truth that every bettor needs to remember - handicapping isn’t always nearly as easy as we wish it could be.

The Tampa Bay Lightning made Steven Stamkos the number one pick in the NHL Draft. Stamkos is a high scoring center from the Ontario Hockey League. If you live in Canada or a hockey town elsewhere then this comes as no surprise - Stamkos has been pegged as the top pick for five years or so. He’s got a ridiculous scoring touch, he’s strong and versatile, and he is frequently compared to Joe Sakic. He’ll make the team next year as the second center, and he is already the heavy favorite to be rookie of the year.

Recent history points to a successful career for Stamkos. Since 2000, the roster of number one picks is impressive. Rick DiPietro is the number on goalie for the Islanders, and he really came into his own this year. Ilya Kovalchuk is a scoring machine. So is Rick Nash. Goalie Marc-Andre Fleury was the playoff star for Pittsburgh this year. 2004 pick Alexander Ovechkin and 2005 pick Sidney Crosby are in a duel to be called the best player in the league. Last year’s top choice, Patrick Kane, was rookie of the year this year. Of all the picks since 2000 the only one who isn’t a certified star is defenseman Erik Johnson of St. Louis, and he put together a pretty solid rookie year in his own right.

Since Mario Lemieux was taken in 1984 there have really only been two guys, Alexander Daigle and Patrik Stefan, who haven’t put together very solid careers. Clearly it is much easier to assess top talent in hockey than any of the other major sports. Since 1984 in the NFL there have been eight or ten duds from the top spot, and the NBA has had at least five. Baseball is about as bad as football.

The Lightning remind me of the Bulls. They both have the top pick in their drafts, and they will both add a player who is as close to a lock as there is. Both teams had truly terrible years, but they both have good foundations of talent and were much better the previous year. Both of their top picks will contribute early and often this year and will elevate their new teams immediately. Both teams have also made much needed coaching changes. Both teams strike me as teams that are going to be much, much better next year. In fact, I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see both of them in the playoffs, and at least at the start of their seasons I will bet them accordingly.

Another day, another manager fired. This time it was John Gibbons in Toronto. That comes a day after Seattle made a change, and just a few days after Willie Randolph started this current epidemic of managerial upgrades.

Just like the previous two firings, this one was unquestionably needed. The Blue Jays have one of the best starting rotations in the league, and they have no shortage of batting talent, but they are underachieving at the plate as much as it is possible for a team to do (except for Seattle). It’s frankly a bit of a surprise that Gibbons, a guy who thinks that challenging a player to a fist fight isn’t necessarily a bad idea, made it this far.

More remarkable than this inevitable firing is who Toronto tabbed to replace Gibbons - Cito Gaston. If you recall, Gaston is the guy who led the Blue Jays to back-to-back World Series victories. A few observations from that front:

1. This is a clear sign that J.P. Ricciardi is all but done in Toronto. There is no way that Ricciardi made this hire. Gaston is an ownership man, and they pull the strings on this one. Ricciardi has prove yet again that he is a goof with this Adam Dunn kerfuffle this week, and his days are very numbered. I figure he will play out the season and then ‘leave to pursue other opportunities’. Good riddance - the guy is lousy. I live in Canada, and the sports radio station in my home town is owned by the same group that owns the Jays, so this story got lots of coverage today. In all of that coverage it is Paul Godfrey, the President and CEO of the team, that is quoted or makes a comment. Ricciardi is silent.

2. Gaston is an odd case. He took over an underachieving team full of holes midway through th 1989 season, and he turned them into dominant champs. He ultimately left the team rather unceremoniously in 1997, and he hasn’t managed since. He was a finalist with Detroit and the White Sox, but he hasn’t been offered anything better than a hitting instructor job. On paper he clearly deserves another shot, so there must be a less-than-enjoyable part of his personality from the management perspective.

3. This move will by the team time from the fans. Gaston is wildly popular in Toronto for obvious reasons, and his return will be seen as the greatest move ever. It probably won’t actually turn out to be a great move, but it will buy the Jays some time to turn things around from a roster perspective.

4. Gaston has a background as a hitting coach, and this team can’t hit at all, so he seems like a good fit. If he sticks with what he knows then he should be fine. The risk, though, is that he will rest on his past laurels. None of the current players will care about that and it will go badly.

5. It will be interesting to see if Gaston’s hiring is basically just a P.R. move or if he will be given real input into this team. There are several players on the roster that are not his type of guys, so if changes start to be made then we’ll quickly know that Gaston is for real.

6. This does nothing to change the Jays’ fundamental problem - they likely will never return to former glory until they can find a way to get out of the AL East. The last decade would have looked very different for them if they were in the AL Central.

7. Who’s next? I’m not going to do the research, but I would guess that this is the most mid-season firings we have seen in one week in a long time. If ever. There are a few more guys who probably don’t need to stay where they are. Clint Hurdle has his team playing better in Colorado, but it’s still pretty ugly, and it has the real potential to get worse. Cleveland and Detroit are both spending too much money to be patient forever. Manny Acta is terrible in Washington, but to be fair there isn’t a manager alive that could do anything with that mess. Cecil Cooper is only in his first full year as manager in Houston after taking over as an interim last year, but he isn’t doing much with the talent he has and gives us little reason to believe that he has a long, bright future. After failing to make the playoffs last year and basically failing to win a game this year, Bud Black may be in some trouble in San Diego. Heck, if this firing pace keeps up baseball could soon be like the NBA was a couple of years ago.

8. There was an almost total change in the coaching staff at the same time. Most notable was that Dwayne Murphy replaces Ernie Whitt as first base coach. Murphy was the guy who hit behind Rickey Henderson in Oakland when Rickey was at his base stealing best. He was a very good and underappreciated player, and he is still a legend in Oakland. Sadly, Toronto doesn’t travel to Oakland for the rest of the year, so we don’t get to enjoy the interesting, though totally meaningless, story of how Murphy is received in his homecoming. In another blast from the past, Gene Tenace is the hitting coach. Tenace filled that same role when Gaston was last the manager, and he was a successful interim manager for a short spell when Gaston had to take time off with back problems.

9. I hope the Jays realize that bringing back the 1992 staff won’t bring back 1992 results.

The only question I have about the Mariners decision to fire their manager to day is why it took so long. I am embarrassed to admit that I thought that they would be the class of the AL West. Instead, they are the cellar dwellers in the entire league. It’s not like they are coming up just short, either. They have all sorts of talent, and highly paid talent at that, but they just can’t get anything going. This year is a total write-off, but hopefully this change coupled with the fired general manager last week will get the message across that this team can’t be this bad anymore. I have always liked the mariners, and I will continue to as long as they don’t make the decision to get rid of Erik Bedard this season. That would be painfully shortsighted.

Portugal got a tough break at Euro 2008 today. They had played very well throughout the tournament, but Germany lost to Turkey in round-robin play so Portugal had to play the tournament favorites in the first round of the playoffs. Portugal played a solid game in virtual monsoon conditions today, but Germany was just that much better, and they won 3-2. One tough draw and they are out. In the meantime, Croatia and Turkey play to be the next opponents of Germany, and Portugal could easily have beaten either of those teams. By the time this tournament is over the draw is going to be a major story. It has already punished France and Portugal.

Big Brown has emerged from seclusion. We had heard a lot from his trainer and jockey since the crushing disappointment of the Belmont, but the horse had been mostly out of sight. He’s been training at Aqueduct, though, and he’s reportedly been doing well. He was originally supposed to be pointed to the Travers at Saratoga at the end of August, but instead he will next head to the other big summer Derby - the Haskell at Monmouth on August 3. That choice opens up the possibility, and indeed most likely the probability, of another race between that one and the Breeders’ Cup Classic at the end of October. Going into that race off a three month break doesn’t seem like a good or likely idea.

Will the world end without Tiger? If you are the commissioner of the PGA you probably think so right about now. If you have been living under a rock today and missed the news, Tiger Woods will miss the rest of the season because he needs reconstructive knee surgery. Not that he needed, but he totally added to his legend this weekend - it turns out that he was not only playing with a torn ligament in his knee, but his leg had been fractured in two places when he was preparing for the tournament, yet he didn’t tell anyone and went out and won. It’s not a wonder he was wincing in pain from time to time.

This will change the dynamics of betting on golf until the big man returns next year. When I heard the news here are the few things that first ran through my mind.

1. Man, is Phil Mickelson ever a pansy. He had a sore wrist last year and the way he carried on you’d think that his arm had been ripped off by a crocodile. He was terrible and he milked it for all it’s worth. Tiger had and injury that was at least as bad for a golfer to deal with, and all he did was play 91 holes to win a major. It’s not a wonder that Phil can’t hold Tiger’s towel.

2. This could be a great thing for golf bettors. Public interest will fall off significantly without the biggest drawing card in sports. That should mean that the lines will be softer and there can be more mistakes to exploit. That being said, the one problem is that the odds of the favorites who aren’t named after big cats will be lower than we have become used to because there won’t be a heavy favorite sucking up the cash.

3. Things are going to be wide open, and it will take a shift in mentality to pick winners. Up until now, the bigger golf tournaments have involved just one major decision - are you with Tiger or are you against him? Now it will take more work and a more legitimate handicapping effort. In other words, we actually have to work now.

4. I am dreading the British Open broadcast. I am setting the over/under on Tiger references at 57 per hour, and I’d still take the over.

5. The odds that Tiger will win his first tournament back? About +185 in my book.

I was almost right about the NBA Championship. I thought it would end in six, and I thought it would be pretty one-sided along the way. The only problem is that I thought that the Lakers would be the ones singing that famous Queen song when it was all over.

No one can second guess the Celtics or take anything away from them after that game six performance. To win at home is one thing, but to do it by 39 against one of the best offenses in the league, and certainly the best player in the league, is unbelievable. I didn’t give the Celtics much credit, and certainly not enough. I guess Danny Ainge is more than just a bad second baseman for the Blue Jays after all.

I also have to give a giant mea culpa to Kevin Garnett. He played well all year, but he showed a killer spirit that I didn’t think he had in this series. Maybe Flip Saunders was the problem in Minny after all. I also thought that Garnett at least shared the blame.

A few things strike me as particularly interesting here. First, going from worst to first in a salary cap era is even more remarkable than it would normally be. Second, I guess defense really does win championships. One of these times I guess I will have to start believing that. Third, here’s an incredible stat - the Lakers were 10-4-1 against the spread in the first three rounds of the playoffs, but Boston covered all six games in the finals. That’s dominance. It also shows that the public just can’t get over their love affair with the Lakers.

As much as I don’t love the Celtics, I have to admit that seeing Kevin Garnett hug Bill Russell after the game was pretty darned cool.

See you next year, NBA. Or in a week or so for the draft.

The 2009 National Champions will be North Carolina. They clinched the title today.

That is, of course, a ridiculous statement, and I am sort of kidding, but it will be hard to pick a team that has a better chance for them after what happened today. All three of their top underclassmen who had declared for the NBA draft - Ty Lawson, Wayne Ellington and Danny Green - hadn’t signed with agents, so all could and did withdraw from the draft at today’s deadline. That means that North Carolina, which was already favored last season, returns their six top players from last year, including national player of the year Tyler Hansbrough. On top of that, they add a top five recruiting class that includes five star freaks Ed Davis and Tyler Zeller. Outside of a notable injury problem with Lawson this was a team that had few holes last year, and that is even more true this year as the top six are more mature and hungrier than ever. The three who entered the draft learned what it will take to make the lottery, and all could potentially do it. Hansbrough has to be the happiest guy on the planet right now, and if he’s not it’s only because Roy Williams is even happier. Of course, for bettors it means that value on the Tar Heels is a distant memory.

I’ve thought it was a no-brainer for all three to choose to come back for another year all along, and that hasn’t changed. I know that it has to be hard to give up a shot at a few million dollars so you can play for free. Of the three, though, Lawson was the only one who was virtually assured to go in the first round, and he will unquestionably benefit from the extra year. He is ridiculously talented, but not as polished as some players above him, so he would have spent a fair bit of time riding the bench next year. Why do that when you can be in the driver’s seat for the big prize? Besides, if they do pull it off and win the title, their draft stocks will all benefit significantly as a result.

So we have our clear-cut, heavy favorite. The only thing that would be better at this point is if I even remotely liked the team.