In his third year with the Boston Red Sox, John Lester, cancer survivor, threw a no hitter against the Kansas City Royals. It was the first no-no by a Beantown lefty in 52 years. Last season, Clay Buckholtz threw a no-no. Lester’s no hit game made Jason Varitek unique. Tek is the only MLB catcher to ever anchor four no hitters!
It’s a long weekend up here in the Great White North, and I just got back into town, so I won’t take long here. I’ll get back to regular writing tomorrow, but today I am just trying to absorb what we witnessed yesterday at Pimlico. I love horse racing more than any other sport, and I have watched a whole lot of races in my time, but I have never seen a horse win as easily as Big Brown. He won by five and a half, but he could have won by 55 if he had been allowed to run. Absolutely incredible. It will be a long three weeks until the Belmont as I dream again and again of the very real possibility of a Triple Crown. Finally.
I’ll say this right up front - I think that Big Brown is going to win the Preakness handily and I am going to bet accordingly. Just to be contrary, though, here are seven reasons why you could choose not to bet on him if you were so inclined. As an aside, I can’t help but be haunted by the 2000 Preakness when I think of this race. Fusaichi Pegasus was a freak who was under-raced but had won the Derby impressively after a ton of hype. He was 3/10 in the Preakness against a field of largely uninspiring horses. Kent Desormeaux had that mount as well. Before the race was run everyone and their dog was looking ahead to the Belmont. He got caught at the wire by Red Bullet, a 6/1 shot who had tanked it in the Wood Memorial last time out. That was a bad year for Triple Crown watchers, and certainly not one I am anxious to relive:
1. Inexperience - The argument that turned people off of him in the Derby is still relevant here. He has only run four times, and he has never had to face adversity in any of those races. A lot can happen in a race full of youngsters, and we don’t know how he will handle it if it does.
2. The field - I don’t think that the field provides much of a challenge for him, but that lack of quality could be a problem. Several of these horses don’t belong here, so they could get themselves in trouble if the pace gets out of hand. As they fade they could create an obstacle for the favorite, and even a horse that good might not be able to get around it.
3. His health - After running in his first race he suffered two different foot injuries that kept him out of training for months. He seems to be healthy now, but he has never run back in just two weeks before, so we don’t know if he can hold up to the strain.
4. The price - There are 13 horses in this field. It doesn’t make any sense at all that one of them should be at 1/2. He’s far better than the rest, but that price is so low (and will likely go lower once the public gets a hold of it) that it can’t possibly accurately reflect the risk involved in putting your money on him.
5. Travel - The horse only arrived at Pimlico on Wednesday night. He’s the last horse in the field to show up. That means he won’t be particularly familiar with his surroundings, and he won’t have worked hard over the somewhat quirky Pimlico surface. Yet another thing we don’t know - how he will handle it all.
6. Conspiracy theory - This is admittedly a stretch, but so are most conspiracy theories. Kent Desormeaux rides Big Brown. He also rode Casino Drive, the super horse from Japan who is awaiting Big Brown in the Belmont, in his only North American appearance. If Desormeaux had a good feeling that this horse wasn’t good enough to beat that horse then he might not push as hard as he could here because a loss here would almost certainly keep Big Brown out of the Belmont. It would at least theoretically be easier to handle to lose here than in New York when you have the Triple Crown in your grasp. As an added bonus for Desormeaux, he could then have the mount on Casino Drive and would likely win the race anyway.
7. For sport - What’s the fun in backing a heavy favorite and being right? It would make for a way better story if a 30/1 shot pulls off the miracle and you can show off your winning ticket.
If you haven’t been paying much attention to the lead up to the second jewel in the Triple Crown, everything you have missed can be summed up like this - There is one very good horse, two that might be alright, and a lot that have no business being in a race of this caliber. In order of preference:
Big Brown - How good is this horse? - he is at 1/2 in the morning line in a 13 horse field. You don’t see that every day. More importantly, those odds seem to pretty much reflect his chances here. He has a decent post position (number 7 - though he won from the 20th hole in the Derby, so the post doesn’t really matter), and this race is totally and absolutely his to lose.If he is even remotely approaching good health then this should be a runaway.
Gayego - This horse captured some imaginations when he won the Arkansas Derby (the same prep race won by Curlin, Smarty Jones, Afleet Alex, Lawyer Ron and others), but he was dismal in the Derby. He ended up 17th and he didn’t look comfortable for even a second during the whole race. If you can pretend that last race never happened then he is intriguing at 8/1. That’s a big if, though. The biggest thing going for him is that he was entered here after his connections previously indicated he would go back to California to rest and regroup. That means he must be in pretty good form.
Behindatthebar - The plus side for this horse is that he is coming of a nice win over a decent field in the Lexington, and he seems to have some talent. The downside is that he is trained by Todd Pletcher. That’s a good thing for every race other than a Triple Crown one. The horse strikes me as good but not good enough. UPDATE: Forget all that - the horse was scratched Friday morning with a ‘foot problem’. I think that that is code for ‘he’s too slow’.
Everyone else - As the saying goes, this is a dog’s breakfast. The other ten horses in this field are all just taking a shot at a big check. There are some moderately talented horses, and I would like several of them a lot if a state-bred stakes race on a Saturday at some anonymous track somewhere, but it is hard to see how any of them have more than a fleeting chance of winning here unless something goes very wrong. All you need to know about the quality is that Kentucky Bear is the fourth choice in the morning line. He has only run three times in his career. He broke his maiden in January, then he was a completely uncompetitive seventh in the Fountain of Youth. He finished third in the Blue Grass, but Monba won that race and was dead last in the Derby. There is not a lot of reason to like this horse, yet the oddsmaker liked him better than anyone else (he is tied with Yankee Bravo). If I had to pick one horse out of this mess it would be Hey Byrn at 20/1, but you won’t see me rushing to the window to bet on him.
Justine Henin retired suddenly yesterday despite the fact that she was number one in the world rankings. A couple of things arise from that. First, it’s sad where we have gotten to as a society of sports watchers - an athletes leaves suddenly and I can’t help but wonder what she was about to be caught doing. That’s probably not the case here, but we can’t help but wonder. Second, there goes one of the easiest bets in tennis. She had won three straight French Opens. The tournament starts in a couple of weeks. She hasn’t been playing well lately, but she still would have been an automatic bet for a few rounds.
Home teams are now 19-1 in the second round. This is truly, historically insane. The books seem to be getting a handle on it, though - the road teams are 3-1 ATS in the last four.
Kobe clearly isn’t very healthy right now. What a waste of an opportunity that would be if he can’t contribute to his fullest for two more rounds. I’m quite convinced that their next series is the de facto championship round.
Sucks to be John Lackey. The Angels’ ace finally gets off the DL and makes his season debut yesterday against the White Sox. He pitches very well - one earned run in seven innings. His team gives him no run support despite the fact that Jose Contreras is pitching, so he leaves a tie game. Then Scot Shields comes out in relief and does his best impression of Eric Gagne - no outs, but a walk and three hits including a grand slam.
I don’t know what is more interesting - that Cleveland starters have now gone more than 43 straight innings without allowing a run (the longest streak in the majors since 1974), or that a 21-19 record is good enough for the Indians to be alone in first in a league that was supposed to be a force to be reckoned with. Either way, the rest of the AL Central, and the AL for that matter, should be very worried now that the Cleveland rotation has remembered how talented it is.
The Marlins have lost three in a row to Cincinnati, and they could be swept tonight. I like a lot of things about the Reds, but a team that wants to be a good one can’t be losing three straight to them. That, combined with the fact that more than a third of their wins this year come against Washington and they are just 2-7 against teams sitting first, second, or third in their division make me think that the feel good story of the Marlins is going to be long forgotten by September.
I can’t believe I am saying this, but other teams could learn from the Rays. They have quietly got their house in very good order - the signed Scott Kazmir to a four year extension yesterday, and they already inked James Shields for four years in January. They have the best record in the AL (an identical mark to the Marlins), but unlike their upstate rivals, their resurgence is not a fluke (resurgence isn’t the right word, because Tampa Bay has never before been good, but you get the point).
We are still several months away from the start of the NFL season, and there is a whole lot of quality sporting action between now and then. For a huge number of sports bettors, though, the NFL is the only thing that really matters. If the players aren’t currently dancing with other stars then they are in the weight room and on the practice field getting ready for next season. There’s no reason that you shouldn’t be doing the same. Don’t worry - you don’t have to break a sweat to get ready. Here are five things you can do to get ready to be at your best and most profitable when the season starts for real, though:
Catch up on player movement - It’s easy to keep track of the high profile players and their new addresses. Football is the ultimate team sport, though, so it’s more than just the stars that impact how a team will perform. Now is a great time to study the depth chart of teams and how they have changed since last we saw them. The rosters aren’t cast in stone yet, obviously, but studying now can give you a good sense of which teams have truly improved and which still have work to do. The media will spend lots of time between now and then talking about the same thing, but they will focus on the stars and rarely delve into what really matters. You’ll have an edge on the public if you work hard to form your own opinion.
Do your reading - There are hundreds of websites devoted to handicapping, dozens of forums filled with good information, and a small library of worthwhile football books as well. The more you read and learn, the better you will be as a handicapper. You won’t agree with everything you read, and you might not even change what you do, but you’ll learn to avoid mistakes or do things differently. Instead of rading a John Grisham on the beach, read something that will make you some money down the line.
Improve your record-keeping - Most bettors don’t keep very good records. They probably know if they win or lose, but they can’t necessarily tell you how they do it. Spending the time setting up a better, more comprehensive record-keeping system is perhaps the biggest single thing you can do to help you make more money. If you closely track your bets you can find the leaks - the bets that you consistently make that aren’t profitable. You probably have bad habits that you aren’t even aware of - maybe you play the over more than you should, or you think that the Bears are better than they are. You can only fix the problems when you first identify them. Spend some time making friends with Excel this summer.
Plunge into the stats - You probably spend a lot of time looking at stats during the season, but there are also a lot of stats that you probably ignore. You should spend the time now getting familiar with some stats that you don’t use in your handicapping now. Look at individual boxscores, find a stat that sticks out as being particularly good or bad, and see how the game turned out. Then look at other games to see if the same stat had the same impact. If you do start to see a trend then you can look deeper. If not then move on to the next one. You might just find another way to find and edge in a game or two over the season.
Get to know the rookies - New players are on their way, and many of them will be making a serious impact. The media has been talking about them since long before the draft. They certainly don’t plunge very deep into reality when they do it, though. If you want to really form valuable opinions about the new players you need to ignore all that you have heard and form your own ideas. Read articles from the local papers in the towns the player’s schools were located in. Look for scouting reports from real draft analysis sites that do their own research. Go to Youtube and find highlights packages to see the players first hand. Maybe you’ll spot something that you really like about a player, or something you really don’t. There is no such thing as too much knowledge.
Sportsbook.com has become the first book to release NFL season totals for next year. I’m not generally a fan of these bets, and especially not in the NFL when the possible range is so small because of the number of games they play. That doesn’t mean that there isn’t anything to learn from the bets, though. By looking at the numbers and the juice required we can get a good sense of how oddsmakers are feeling about some teams. If any are a surprise then we have lots of time to figure out if they seem right or wrong. Here are the strongest opinions based on the first numbers posted:
Buffalo over 7.5 (-180) - The Bills are the heaviest favorite on the board. Books are obviously pretty confident that they will improve on their seven wins of last season. It’s not hard to justify that opinion - their quarterback has more much needed experience, their injury woes will hopefully be a thing of the past, the offense reloaded in the draft, and they seem to be moving in the right direction. Their division schedule will be tougher than last year, though, because the Pats are still the Pats and the Jets and Dolphins have improved. The rest of the schedule could be tough, too, including San Diego, Cleveland, and Jacksonville. I like the Bills, but certainly not enough to make this bet.
Oakland over 6 (-170) - The second biggest price on the board isn’t very attractive to me, either. To pay off here the Raiders need to find three more wins. Their running game should be improved (though it was pretty much the lone bright spot last year), but they will be relying on a brand new quarterback who isn’t surrounded with overwhelming tools. It could happen, but I don’t love the chances, and I think that this price is just an attempt to sucker in the suckers that call themselves Raiders fans.
Indianapolis under 11 (-165) - Books are down on the Colts. They would have to drop by three wins here. The arguments can be made - the receiving corps has questions (including whether Marvin Harrison will end up in an orange jumpsuit), and Tony Dungy doesn’t seem to be committed to his job for the long term. I don’t know whether I believe in this one or not, but I would be more than a little thrilled if it were true.
Dallas over 10.5 (-160) - I wonder if America’s team has ever been anything other than a heavy favorite to go over. The public can’t seem to be objective about this team, and the books take advantage of it. The number doesn’t seem that unreasonable, but the price sure does.
Atlanta over 4.5 (-160) - The Falcons need to find one more win than last year to pay off here. They have a new quarterback who has to make a gigantic leap up from the ACC, a coach who has never been at the helm of a team before, a GM who has to rebuild the team almost from scratch in his first year as a GM, and players have defected from several key positions. I have no doubts that this team is on the right path and will figure things out eventually, but I don’t think that their improvement this year is nearly the lock that this price would suggest.
1. There are only six guys in the majors with the last name Cabrera, but it seems like there are about 212. Every time I turn around another one is in the news. The latest did it in an impressive way - Cleveland second baseman Asdrubal Cabrera turned just the 14th unassisted triple play in major league history in the second game of a doubleheader against Toronto. He dove to catch a line drive, touched second for out number two, and the tagged Marco Scutaro, the guy who should own a hundred pizza places based on his name alone, to enter history. Troy Tulowitzki had one last season, and the previous unassisted play was in 2000.
2. That wasn’t the only crazy thing to happen in that game. I don’t know Cliff Lee, but I can only imagine that he is one angry dude right now. The ridiculously hot ace threw nine scoreless innings in that game to lower his already almost non-existent 0.81 ERA. The problem is that his team didn’t score any runs, either. The bullpen poured gas on the mound and lit it on fire in the tenth, allowing three runs. Lee should have had a brilliant complete game shutout. Instead, he threw 117 pitches and has nothing to show for it. On the plus side, his ERA is down to 0.67. That’s obscene. To be fair, we should note that Shaun Marcum is having a very solid year, and he was brilliant as well. He allowed just two hits in eight scoreless innings.
3. Detroit cruised to a third easy win against Dallas. This is as one-sided as a conference final can possibly be. A friend sent me an e-mail late in the game that said it well - “Dallas looks like a good junior team playing an NHL team”.
4. A-Rod is not going to be healthy and back in action in time for the Yanks’ series against the Mets this weekend. That’s the story, anyway. More likely, he knows how nasty fans in New York can be, and he has trips in the friendlier and more apathetic climes of Baltimore and Seattle after that. No one ever said A-Rod wouldn’t duck a tough spot.
5. The Lakers series just got tougher to figure out. Now we have to play psychologist, figuring out how much Kobe’s back injury is for real, and how much of it is just showmanship in an attempt to get an edge over Utah. There’s no question that he isn’t 100 percent. It just seems a bit odd that he showed up in front of the media wearing some funky electric stimulation device on his back. Teams and players are notoriously tight-lipped about injuries in the playoffs, and they never seem to tell the truth when they do rarely speak. Based on that, it’s pretty easy to concoct a conspiracy theory that would suggest that he isn’t in nearly as bad shape as his actions would suggest. The problem is that he’s the only player still active outside of LeBron James that singlehandedly can determine the outcome of his series based on his health.
6. We’ll have the Preakness field set in two days, but it is still pretty fluid. Recapturetheglory has pulled out of the race. Now Harlem Rocker, the undefeated horse trained by Todd Pletcher that Big Brown’s connections admitted was the only one that they were concerned about in the field, has decided to find an easier spot. That means that this is going to be a ridiculously easy field for Big Brown if he is anywhere near his best. The one thing that could make it a bit more interesting is the rumor that Gayego could give the race a try. He had a lousy Derby, but there is a lot to like about the Arkansas Derby winner. If nothing else, his presence would inflate Big Brown’s price from the microscopic to the merely ridiculously low.
7. The Celtics have now played five road games in these playoffs. They have yet to win or cover a single one. Despite what they accomplished this season, I find it hard to view them as a truly elite team with that on their record. If they can’t beat Atlanta or Cleveland how are they going to get past L.A., San Antonio or Charlotte.
This season isn’t over yet, so it is way too early to be thinking seriously about next year’s NBA season. The hiring of Mike D’Antoni by the Knicks is so interesting in so many ways, though, that it is worth looking ahead for a bit.
The first place to start is the money. The Knicks clearly make way too much of it. They will be paying D’Antoni $6 million a year for four years. That’s on top of almost $50 million in dead money that they have paid or will pay Larry Brown and Isiah Thomas to not coach. Imagine what a competent, reasonably managed team could do with all of that cash.
There are some reasons to like this hire. The guy has averaged 58 wins a year for four years, so he can obviously coach. His style is great to watch, and offensive players who fit in love it, so the team shouldn’t struggle to bring in players when they have space for them. Combined with Donnie Walsh, D’Antoni finally represents a much-needed new era of good management.
That paints a pretty picture, but reality is far more bleak. D’Antoni’s success was largely fueled by the fact that Steve Nash is a hall-of-fame lock. Now he has to work with Nate Robertson and Jamal Crawford. That’s like trading a Porsche for a Pinto. This could all change if they get lucky and land Derrick Rose of Jerryd Bayless in the draft, but for now there just isn’t a floor general with the skill and basketball IQ to make D’Antoni’s system work. D’Antoni is fiercely proud of his system - he wouldn’t change even a bit in Phoenix even though that meant his departure - so it seems unlikely that he would adapt to his team. That means it could be a long year.
Zach Randolf and Eddy Curry ensure that the Knicks have no payroll flexibility, and that they won’t have the speed and creativity to make D’Antoni’s system work. Walsh will have to work miracles to get rid of them. There won’t be any real salary cap space clearing up any time soon, so D’Antoni will have to find patience he hasn’t had to show.
The Knicks haven’t known the meaning of the word defense since Jeff Van Gundy left the team. They’ve also only made the playoffs once since he left in 2002, and that was without a winning record. With that in mind it doesn’t necessarily make sense to look to D’Antoni as the solution to the woes.
Back to the money for a second. The fact that D’Antoni went to New York instead of Chicago even though the Bulls have a much more talented roster full of players that are much more suited to his style is a clear sign that the coach made a money-driven decision. That’s fine, but it is tough to believe that his motivation and inspiration will be all that it could be if (wen) the road is rough because he was looking to get away from Steve Kerr and bit into the shiniest apple.
I think that D’Antoni is a wildly talented coach, and I am not willing to count out his chances of winning in New York entirely. I just sure won’t be in a real hurry to bet on him next year until he gives me a reason to. That being said, the Knocks are instantly about 112 times better with him at the helm instead of the Thomas train wreck.
It’s Saturday night and you should be out doing something more interesting than reading what I have to say, but I will hit three quick topics that caught my eye today:
1. A somewhat dull Triple Crown trail just got a whole lot more interesting. It looked like we were living in a one freak world - Big Brown. A second one emerged today. Casino Drive had only run once in his life before today, and it was in Japan. He won by a mile, though. More significantly, he has captured the attention of racing fans because he has shipped over here specifically for the Belmont, and because he is (at least) a half brother to Jazil and Rags to Riches (the last two Belmont winners). To tune up for that race which is a month off, the horse ran in the Peter Pan Stakes at Belmont against a reasonably decent crowd. It was a massacre. I could describe it further, but you had better see this one for yourself:
One last interesting note. Kent Desormeaux rides Big Brown. He also rode Casino Drive in this race. This will perhaps be the first time in history that a top jockey wins a race that impressively and steps off the horse for its next race.
2. The streak came to an end. Detroit beat Orlando by a point in Florida to become the first road team in the second round to win and only the second one to cover. Cleveland started a new streak in the second game, and they did it with an exclamation point - they covered the two point spread by 22 points.
3. I know you can’t bet on high school girl’s track and field (not legally anyway, and if you are doing it illegally then you might have a problem), but this story is too amazing not to mention. Rochelle High School won the girl’s 1A Texas state team championship. So what? Bonnie Richardson was the only girl to qualify for the meet from the school. She won two events, was second in two others, and added a third in another. That earned her more points that the second place school. The best part? She’s only a junior. I know who I am betting on next year. I doubt there will be much value in her, though.
I’ve touched on it before, but I am endlessly fascinated by the home court advantage we are seeing in the NBA playoffs so far this year. San Antonio and Boston both won last night. That means that the home squad is a perfect 10-for-10 in the second round. It’s not quite as one-sided overall, but it is still impressive - home teams were 30-14 in the first round, meaning they are 40-14 overall. More significantly to sports bettors, Cleveland in their first game against Boston is the only road team in the first round to cover a spread.
Two of the series have already switched venues for their third game. Orlando won game three over Detroit by 25 points after losing the first two by a combined margin of 26 points. New Orleans beat San Antonio by 19 and 18 at home, and then fell short by 11 in San Antonio.So far in those series you only have to look at the logo on the court to figure out which team is going to be the better one.
You can take this trend beyond interesting and into the realm of highly profitable by tweaking it just a bit. It makes sense that the higher seeded team should have a fairly significant advantage at home in the first two rounds of the playoffs because, at least theoretically, there should be a fairly significant talent gap between the higher seeds and the lower ones when there are still four or eight teams left in a division. It’s no surprise that that is true this year, but the extent to which it is true is shocking. In the first round the higher seeded teams were 16-7 ATS, and they have improved to 7-1 ATS in the second round. That’s a combined 23-8 ATS so far. It’s not too hard make money when you are covering 74 percent of your games.
Before we get too excited about those numbers, though, we should take a look back to last year to see just how much a fluke this year is. That’s where it gets ugly. The higher seeded teams were just 8-12 ATS in the first round last year. In other words, the money was from the visitors last season. Whoever said sports betting was easy or logical? All you can really dois sit back and enjoy the craziness this year while it lasts, because it isn’t going to last forever. Unfortunately.
White Sox pitcher Gavin Floyd just can’t buy a break. The guy has come very close to a no-hitter twice in a month, and both times he has come up short. Tonight he had an out in the ninth against the Twins before Joe Mauer found a massive gap in left center field for a double. Against the Tigers on April 12 he had an out in the eighth before giving up his first hit to Edgar Renteria. Those two games are closer to a no-hitter than most guys will come in their lives. Floyd is handling his near-misses with a sense of humor, but that’s the kind of thing you’ll see when you close your eyes for the rest of your life iunless you finally do get one.
Though Floyd missed the magical no-hitter, I started thinking about no-no’s as I was watching Floyd’s progress. More specifically, I was wondering what the right thing to do with the White Sox tomorrow would be if they did get a no-hitter today, and what I should do in Floyd’s next start if he got it done. That made me want to look back at recent no-hitters to see how the teams and pitchers bounced back. Is there a trend? Here’s a look at the last 10 no-hitters. (Keep in mind that this is a painfully small sample so it is pretty much meaningless, but it’s late and it’s raining and I’m bored so bear with me):
September 1, 2007 - Clay Buchholz, Boston - Boston won 3-2 the next day against Baltimore. In a truly bizarre move, Buchholz was rewarded for his amazing performance by being moved to the bullpen.
June 12, 2007 - Justin Verlander, Detroit - Detroit lost to Milwaukee as favorites the next day. Verlander had a stellar outing next time out - four hits, one run and 11 strikeouts in seven innings.
April 18, 2007 - Mark Buehrle, White Sox - Chicago beat Texas the next day as favorites. Buehrle was solid in winning his next outing - three earned runs in seven innings.
September 6, 2006 - Anibal Sanchez, Florida - Florida was blown out by Philadelphia the day after this game. Sanchez through seven solid innings (three earned runs in seven innings) in his next start.
May 18, 2004 - Randy Johnson, Arizona - The D-Backs won on the road as favorites in their next game. Johnson allowed two earned runs in seven innings in his next game.
June 11, 2003 - Six pitchers, Houston - The Astros lost to the Yankees the next day, but they were heavy underdogs. No pitcher lasted three innings, so that’s not relevant.
April 27, 2003 - Kevin Millwood, Philadelphia - The Phillies won against the Dodgers the next day as mild underdogs. Millwood was okay in his next start - three earned runs in six innings - but he ended up without a decision.
April 27, 2002 - Kevin Lowe, Boston - The Red Sox lost to Baltimore in their next game as very heavy favorites (-190). Derek Lowe had what seems to be the typical game post-no-hitter - three earned runs in seven innings. He didn’t get a decision, but the Sox did win.
September 3, 2001 - Bud Smith, St. Louis - The Cards won the next day as favorites. Smith didn’t appear again for two weeks, but he was very good - a shutout over seven innings.
May 12, 2001 - A.J. Burnett, Florida - Florida won easily the next day at even money. In his next start (which was just the third of his career) allowed just one run in six and a third to earn a win.
So, what have we learned? Nothing conclusive, but a couple of interesting things. First, there seems not to be a consistent way for a team to respond - the teams were 6-4 in the following games, but were probably only barely profitable because of the lines. On the other hand, it seems like a pitcher is a pretty solid bet coming off a no-hitter. All eight starters that were given a chance to start again in their next start were decent. None lost, and all managed to maintain some of their momentum from the previous game. Definitely worth a bet.
There is a very interesting pitching match-up in Arizona tonight. Two hot teams - the Phillies and the Diamondbacks clash with two pitchers at opposite ends of their careers. Jamie Moyer is older than the dirt he’ll be standing on on the mound, while Max Scherzer is a young phenom making his second MLB appearance and first start. Scherzer is 23. When he was born Moyer was a Cubs prospect in the New York - Penn League.
Scherzer comes into the league with a lot of hype. He’s a power pitcher with a fastball in the high 90’s. He was drafted by the Cardinals in 2003, but he opted to play college ball at Missouri instead, and was chosen again in the first round by Arizona in 2006. He rocketed up through the minor leagues before being called up last week as a reliever. His stint in the bullpen lasted exactly one appearance. He came in in the third inning against Houston last Tuesday after starter Edgar Gonzalez had given up six runs and eight hits. All Scherzer did was throw four and a third perfect innings while striking out seven. Those 13 outs he recorded were the most ever by a reliever in his first career appearance. Needless to say, it took D-Backs management about 12 seconds to decide to move him into the rotation in Gonzalez’ place.
The 45 year old Moyer has spent a good bit of time this year looking like a 45 year old. He is 1-2, he hasn’t won since the second game of the season, has allowed seven or more hits every game since then, and hasn’t made it out of the sixth all year. The Phillies are a solid 12-8 since April 13, but Moyer has been the starter in three of those eight losses.
It might sound like a recipe for disaster in Arizona - rushing a youngster into action so quickly. The list of pitchers who have been ruined through impatience is long. There is good reason to believe that that won’t be the case here, though. Most significantly, the team only needs him to be a fifth starter because they have a pretty darned good rotation ahead of him - Webb, Haren, Johnson, Owings. On top of that, Doug Davis could be back from cancer surgery as soon as a month from now, so Scherzer would likely find himself back in the pen or even back in AAA. If he is, as he appears to be, the real deal then he will have lots of time to show it.
All that aside, his appearance tonight creates an interesting betting situation. Scherzer and Arizona are favored at -156. The 148 price Moyer faces is the biggest he has seen all year, so this is a lot of pressure on a new pitcher making his starting debut. As good as he looked first time out, he was entering a game that was already over so there was no pressure. Now he is under the microscope. He could very well have a great night, but I would find it very hard to argue that there is any value on the Diamondbacks at this price. I think I’ll just be an interested observer tonight.
UPDATE: Age prevailed over beauty. Moyer had a pretty good night. Scherzer didn’t. Philadelphia won by seven runs.
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