Maddux Sports Blog

The time slot on CBS that was once reserved for Mary Tyler Moore will be filled by mixed martial arts. Some people are viewing the prime time debut of EliteXC as the first sign of the apocalypse. I just look at it as another potential betting opportunity. Here’s a quick look at what is on tap for tonight (I know I am on three favorites in three matches, but there’s no avoiding it):

Gina Carano (-280) vs. Kaitlin Young (+220) - UFC fans will immediately notice something they aren’t used to here - these dudes are women. Carano is recognized as the top female MMA fighter in the world. If you watch the new version of American Gladiators (does anyone?) then you will recognize her as Crush. She’s undefeated in MMA over her two year career, and had a strong Muay Thai career before that. Young has only been a pro since October, but she has put together four nice wins since then. She lost last time out, but she’s not a pushover here. Still, Carano should win unless something goes wrong for her.

Robbie Lawler (-250) vs. Scott Smith (+200) - This fight is for Lawler’s middleweight title. It’s not the main event, but based on potential it certainly should be. Lawler is only 26, but he’s a veteran who has been around. Prior to being here he had seven fights in the UFC. He also coached on season six of The Ultimate Fighter. He had an excellent year last year, but has had injury problems to start this year. Smith also has experience with The Ultimate Fighter, but as a contestant in season four. He lost to Travis Lutter. He’s undefeated in EliteXC, but that’s not saying much since he has only fought once. This one should be fun to watch because both guys like to stand up, and both are tough to knock out. These guys should have a brawl, and the winner will be the last one standing. I expect Lawler will still have his belt at the end of the night.

Kimbo Slice (-600) vs. James Thompson (+400) - This is the main event, but purists would say that Slice, a street brawler, has no business topping a card like this. He used the internet effectively to build a following, though, so he has earned it. He’s had two pro fights after leaving the streets, and he has crushed both opponents in a combined 62 seconds. Of course, neither Bo Cantrell or Tank Abbott were at the top of their game when he faced them. Cantrell’s game never really had a top. Thompson is known as The Colossus. He’s been around for about five years. His most notable victory was over the legendary Dan Severn. That win led to his biggest embarrassment, though - he fought Aleksander Emelianenko and was knocked out in just 11 seconds. It’s that same glass jaw that Slice will be looking for, and I like his chances of finding it. I think that this one will end in a knockout, and I doubt it will make it out of the first round.

I’m not a devoted poker player but I dabble. I also keep my eye on what is going on on the pro circuit. It only makes sense, then, that I would be drawn to the World Series of Poker in search of betting opportunities. The series starts today at the Rio in Las Vegas and continues on for the next six weeks. Over that time there will be 53 events played. Bodog, because of their connection to poker, has a large number of props available at the event. Here’s a quick look at some of the more interesting ones:

Will a player win two bracelets? Yes - +110, No - -140. If you aren’t familiar with the WSOP, a bracelet is given to the winner of each event. They are seen as the holy grail of the poker world. I think that there is actually a bit of value here on the yes side. Poker is a game of streaks, and the format of the series is perfect for a player to get hot. I would bet that it is going to happen this year because it seems to happen consistently. I can’t find a list of double winners everywhere, but just off the top of my head I know Layne Flack did it in 2003, Mark Seif doubled up in 2005, Jeff Madsen and Bill Chen both won two in 2006, and Tom Schneider did it last year. I’m sure I am missing one or two, but even if I am not that makes it seem pretty likely that someone will pull it off this year.

Which celebrity player will win the most money in the Main Event? Unlike the last question, this one is just a shot in the dark. It’s kind of entertaining, though. The Main Event will likely draw more than 7,000 players this year, and several relatively big name celebrities will be among them. There are a good number of decent players who come from more public walks of life - Jennifer Tilly has a bracelet, Tobey Maguire has won a fairly major non-WSOP event and done well here, James Woods is competitive, and people like Shannon Elizabeth, Norm MacDonald, Brad Garrett and even Montel Williams have made some noise in the past. That being said, you are fooling yourself if you think that this bet is anything more than a guess. You might as well find a good price, then. Jennifer Tilly probably has the best shot, but at 5/1 she isn’t attractive at all. James Woods and Shannon Elizabeth have both done well in other televised events and could do well here, too, but they are also 5/1, so they are out. I wouldn’t touch Jose Canseco if he was the only person in the field, so I’ll skip him even though he is 30/1. Two names jump out that offer as much value as a silly bet like this can offer. Spider Man himself has game, and he s at 11/1. The other is Sully Erna at 14/1. He may not be a familiar name, but he is the lead singer of Godsmack. More importantly, he plays a lot of poker, and looks to be fairly decent. I think he would be lower than he is if people knew who he was. Last year, Erna was the deepest celebrity, and Maguire was second, so I am getting decent prices for going with recent history. Erna also went the second deepest in 2006.

Will a former Main Event winner make the final table of the Main Event? Yes - +900. This one is interesting. The main event has exploded in popularity over the last five years. A former champ has been at the final table twice over that time (same guy both times - Dan Harrington). As the fields get bigger it gets harder and harder to make the last table, but then there are also more for champs to take a shot. Though no champ has made it in the last three years, a few have come close. Scotty Nguyen ended up just two spots away in 11th last year. Greg Raymer finished 25th in 2005, the year after he won his title. All in all, there are about a dozen former champs who will be competitive this year. That doesn’t necessarily make this a good bet, but it would be a great place to put a few bucks to give you something to root for during the main event. It’s certainly possible.

Which World Champion will last longest in the Main Event? A World Champion is just a Main Event winner. This bet is basically just a wild guess, but it is interesting because of the number of players who have bad odds associated with them. To handicap, you can start by knocking off the guys who don’t really stand a chance because they haven’t done a lot since their wins. That knocks out Chris Moneymaker (16/1), Jamie Gold (10/1), and Jerry Yang (16/1). Next, you can knock out the guys who are older, because the endurance test that is this tournament certainly doesn’t favor them. That rules out Dan Harrington (7/1) and Doyle Brunson (11/2). Next, you can knock out the guys that appear to be an underlay. Greg Raymer hasn’t been particularly competitive the last couple of years, so I am happy to knock him out at 7/1. Phil Hellmuth has more bracelets than anyone, but he still doesn’t belong at 9/2. That knocks us down to five players - Joe Hachem, Huck Seed and Scotty Nguyen at 7/1, and Juan Carlos Mortensen and Chris Ferguson at 9/2. Nguyen went deepest last year, so given the nature of the event I would happily bet against him doing so again this year. Seed is a good player, and he finished 73rd last year, but he isn’t particularly consistent, so I would drop him. That leaves Hachem, Ferguson and Mortensen. That’s a very solid group, so you can decide for yourself from here.

A couple of things have me scratching  my head this morning.

First, the Bulls are reportedly about to hire Doug Collins as their next coach. Huh? With the first pick in the draft and a pretty decent existing lineup the best you could do is pull a guy off the scrap heap? Surely the lure of coaching Michael Beasley or Derrick Rose would have been enough to hire someone who is, well, good. Collins has already been a coach for the Bulls, and not a particularly good one. He’s also been at the helm for the Pistons and he wasn’t very good there, either. Finally, he was reunited with Michael Jordan with the Wizards. How can we possibly forget what a rousing and inspiring success that whole era was? Overall, he has a decent but not overwhelming regular season record of 332-287, but it’s in the playoffs that he has shown hs true incompetence - 15-23. He didn’t manage to get anything done with the Bulls in the playoffs, but soon after he left the team won three in a row. This move is totally without logic for the Bulls management team. Or maybe not. This must be what they are thinking - Collins hired Phil Jackson as an assistant, and when Collins was fired for being inept Jackson took the helm and won six titles in nine years. Maybe management sees this as the easiest way to identify the next Phil Jackson. That’s the only thing that makes sense, because as a coach Collins make a decent broadcaster. I wrote earlier that I was very optimistic about the Bulls next year because of the first pick and their other tools. A lot of that optimistic will drain away if they go through with this ridiculous hire. It’s not just his record that makes it ridiculous, though. They fired Scott Skiles because he was loud and fiery and it wasn’t working for the players anymore. The mogical thing, then, is to bring in a guy who is loud and fiery and shouts at his players. That’s the ticket. If I was a Bulls season ticket holder I’d be on the phone to cancel them as soon as they hired this goof. I suspect that I would have to wait on hold for a while.

The other thing that I don’t understand at all is why James Blake insists on sucking at the French Open. He was favored at -240 to win his second round match today against Ernests Gulbis, a 19 year old Latvian who is ranked 80th in the world and has only played in four previous grand slams. Not only did Blake lose the match, but he lost it in four sets. The first set went to a tiebreaker, but Gulbis dominated it. Blake fought back to take the second set, but then he folded. He looked confused, and he wasn’t playing his typical game. This is very frustrating. Blake is the 8th ranked player in the world. He’s not a clay specialist (the fact that Americans have a mental block against clay is another entirely different, though equally ridiculous, issue that I won’t deal with here), but he has had some success on clay both in the past and this year. He made the finals in clay in Houston this year. He made the quarters in the Rome Masters before losing to Stanislas Wawrinka, who went on to make the final and take a set off of Novak Djokovic. Blake has better surfaces, but the 8th ranked player in the world should be able to win their second round match in a major against an outmatched opponent on any surface. Period. Further, we should be able to trust an American ranked in the top ten to come through as a -240 favorite. Blake is an immensely talented player, but he really needs to get his head together before his window closes completely.

Big Brown returned to the track sooner than expected yesterday after suffering a quarter crack injury. He was back again today with a solid gallop. As far as I’m concerned the injury isn’t going to factor into my handicapping of the Belmont at all unless something comes up between now and then to make me think otherwise.

Casino Drive, Big Brown’s biggest threat, had a truly bizarre outing this morning. He was to work with a stable mate, but he was acting up in the warmup so they sent him off alone instead. His time was more than 1:12 for five furlongs. Even fairly average horses race six furlongs in less time. The time was so slow that Belmont clockers couldn’t record it as an official work. Bizarre. They obviously do things differently in Japan. One good thing happened for the horse today - he secured Edgar Prado as his Belmont rider. I like that a lot better than the idea of bringing a jockey over from Japan.

The White Sox scored three in the seventh to come back and beat Cleveland 6-5 today. I don’t know if the Indians suck or the White Sox are pretty good. I am finding it increasingly difficult to like anyone better than Chicago to come out of the Central, though.

Baltimore is above .500 at this point of the year. They are a ridiculous 16-7 at home. If they could play on the road even a little they would actually be competitive. That’s yet another thing that doesn’t make any sense about this season so far. It’s obvious that bettors and oddsmakers didn’t see this coming, either. Despite being just one game above .500 going into tonight’s action they are up about five units on the season on the moneyline.

Maria Sharapova won her second round match at the French Open today, but it sure wasn’t pretty. Serena Williams cruised. The women’s draw sure was easier to figure out when Justine Henin was still playing. Ana Ivanovic, the second seed, won her second match easily as well. The more I see her, the more I think she is the one to beat here. Things make much more sense on the men’s side where Rafael Nadal made it look easy.

My best guesses - Boston and Pittsburgh both look pretty good in earning home playoff wins tonight. I’ll especially be shocked if Boston doesn’t come out on put on a clinic.

The Dodgers called up 20 year old phenom Clayton Kershaw from Double-A to start on Sunday because they found themselves in a bind since Esteban Loaiza forgot how to pitch. The gamble paid off. He didn’t get the decision, but he pitched well and the team won.

His start raises a couple of interesting issues. First of all, it will be fun to see if Kershaw is one of those pitchers who hits the ground running and puts together a good year, or if he will struggle and take some time before he sticks for good. It also raises an issue of how we should deal with these phenom pitchers. The obvious answer would probably be to pass the games because we don’t know what the pitchers have to offer in their debut start, but where’s the fun in that. Instead, it might be interesting to look back on some of the recent phenoms that have come on the scene to see what they did in their first starts - maybe we’ll learn something.

Here’s a very incomplete list of 15 young pitchers including Kershaw and the result their team enjoyed in their first start. The criteria were simple - the pitchers all had to debut within the last three years, and they all had to have a good deal of buzz surrounding their debuts.

Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers - Team won - He was drafted two years ago out of high school, and was rushed along because of the composure he was showing in Double-A. His first start lasted six innings and featured seven strikeouts and just one walk. Nothing wrong with that.

Cole Hamels, Phillies - Team won - Hamels was drafted in the first round in 2002. He didn’t make the roster out of spring training in 2006, but he was called up almost immediately. His first start was May 12. He won, and has never really looked back. He’s the clearest success on this list.

Phil Hughes, Yankees - Team lost - Phil Franchise was tabbed as the number two prospect in the minor leagues at the start of the 2007 season, but he didn’t have a chance to prove it - he was called up in April. He didn’t make it out of the fifth in his first start.

Andrew Miller, Tigers (now Marlins) - Team won - Miller was the college player of the year in 2006, and was the sixth pick in the draft that year. He was the first player in that draft to make the majors. His first start was a gem - six shutout innings against St. Louis. He obviously didn’t make enough of an impression, though - he was sent the other way in the Dontrelle Willis deal.

Max Scherzer, Diamondbacks - Team lost - Scherzer was a first round pick in 2006. He drove bettors into a frenzy with his first relief appearance - four and a third perfect innings. He was immediately pressed into starting duty as Doug Davis got treated for cancer. It was a disaster. He pitched poorly and was beat by Jamie Moyer and the Phillies.

Homer Bailey, Reds - Team won - A first round pick in 2004, Bailey’s debut was much anticipated in June of 2007. He won that first game against the Indians, but he has struggled to find a spot with the big team since then. He’s currently in AAA.

Tim Lincecum, Giants - Team lost - Lincecum is a heck of a pitcher, but he doesn’t look the part - he’s not very tall and he’s scrawny. That didn’t stop him from winning the Golden Spikes Award in 2006 - given to the best amateur player in the country. He didn’t make the team in 2007, but was called up right away because Russ Ortiz was injured. He was fine in his first outing, but the lousy Giants didn’t help him out and the team lost.

Jair Jurrjens, Tigers (now Braves) - Team lost - Unlike most of the rest of the players on this list, Jurrjens is not a blue-blooded prospect. He was an undrafted free agent, but he fought his way up through the Tigers’ system. He was added to the 40 man roster in 2007 and debuted in August. He went seven and was okay, but the Tigers weren’t very good that night and they lost.

Clay Buchholz, Red Sox - Team won - Buchholz was a late first round pick in 2005 (a compensatory pick for Pedro Martinez). He won his first start with a decent six inning outing, but was sent right back down to the minors for a couple of weeks. It worked. He came up and threw a no-hitter in his second start.

Matt Garza, Twins (now Rays) - Team lost - Garza showed tremendous promise early in his career. In his first pro year, 2006, he worked up from A ball to the pros by August. He was called up to replace the injured Francisco Liriano. His first start, against Toronto, was an absolute disaster - seven runs in less than three innings. He rebounded and progressed nicely, but was sent to Tampa for Delmon Young.

Jered Weaver, Angels - Team won - Weaver’s story is one of the sadly entertaining of all time - to make room for him on the big league roster when he was called up the second time the Angels cut his brother, Jeff. He was national college player of the year in 2004. His first start was spectacular - seven shutout innings. He won four in a row, but was sent down to the minors when Bartolo Colon returned to action.

Adam Loewen, Orioles - Team lost - Loewen took longer to develop than some. He was the fourth pick in the 2002 draft, and the Orioles top prospect by 2004, but he didn’t debut until 2006. He gained some attention in the World Baseball Classic when he got the win for Canada over the U.S. team. He lost his first game, but he can’t really be blamed - his first four starts were all against Cy Young winners - Randy Johnson, Tom Glavine and Roy Halladay two different times. Ouch.

Johnny Cueto, Reds - Team won - This tiny Dominican is nasty. In his first start this April he was perfect through five innings, allowed just one baserunner - a home run - and struck out ten in seven innings. Incredible. He has struggled to find that form since, but he still shows tremendous promise.

Luke Hochevar, Royals - Team lost - This guy is a case study in how to work the draft. He was drafted in 39th round in 2002. He didn’t sign. In 2005 he was picked late in the first round. The contract negotiations were a mess and he went back into the draft again in 2006. This time he went first overall. His first start came as a 40-man roster call up in September of last year. He lost, but then again he plays for the Royals so what did you expect.

Ian Kennedy, Yankees - Team won - A 2006 first round pick, Kennedy made the bigs in September of 2007 because the Yankees continue to show a total inability to establish a major league rotation. He allowed one earned run in seven innings to get the win first time out.

So what does it all mean? Not much. This list of 15 phenoms won eight games and lost seven. Betting on them all to win would have lost money, but not much. Betting on all of them to lose would likely not have made much, if any, money. As expected, you just have to do your homework for each game by itself because there doesn’t appear to be any shortcuts among first-timers. Sorry.

I watched the hockey game tonight, and I was left stunned by what I saw. The Red Wings are freakishly good, and Pittsburgh is in serious trouble. The Penguins haven’t scored a goal yet in 120 minutes. Ouch. What is most amazing, and most contributes to the outcome, is that Detroit is just sticking to their game plan. Pittsburgh keeps doing stupid things to try to get Detroit mad, the Red Wings don’t respond, and Pittsburgh commits a penalty out of frustration. That would be great at the best of times, but it is especially effective because neither Sidney Crosby nor Evgeni Malkin kill penalties. The best possible way to neutralize those two is to keep them off the ice. I feel fairly sure that Pittsburgh will win game three at home, but this series so far is just testament to how good Detroit is. It also makes me think that the week off before the series was the worst possible thing that could have happened to the Pens - their young guys had too much time to sit around and freak themselves out by the immensity of what was in front of them. It’s clear that the team lacks a player in a central role who has been here before. Detroit - start planning your parade route.

Probably just one parade route, though, Detroit. The Pistons got a win tonight to even their series with Boston at two, but I still don’t have a lot of confidence in their ability to win it all. I don’t think that they have the health or the effective depth to beat the Western rep if they can get past Boston. This round so far has really shown just how true what we have suspected all along is - the West really is much better than the East this year.

After nine straight wins, Brandon Webb lost for the second time in a row tonight. Unlike his first loss, though, this one was ugly. He only got one out in the fifth before getting booted, and he allowed four runs and ten hits. The odd thing is that though he was very hittable tonight he was also fooling a lot of guys - he struck out eight. I went against Webb tonight just based on value in his (in my opinion) inflated price, but I will be staying away from him entirely now until we can see for sure that he hasn’t decided to plunge into a freefall or that he is healthy.

Philadelphia was at (-201) tonight against the Rockies with Jamie Moyer on the mound. Just think about that for a second - Colorado was in the World Series just last year, but they have fallen so far, so fast that oddsmakers think them to be an overwhelming underdog against a guy who is 200 years old and throws about 12 miles an hour. Even worse, the price actually reflected value - a lot of it. Philly exploded for 20 runs, including two innings with 6 each, to win 20-5. That’s the fourth time that Colorado has been at +160 or higher and they have won just once, so they are not a good team to take a shot at as a long shot no matter how tempting the potential payoff may be. Put another way, they really suck.

The teams with the three highest payrolls in baseball are well below .500. The two lowest paid teams are leading their divisions. I’m not telling you anything you don’t know, but it just seems so odd to see that in print and try to digest it. Very, very, very bizarre. Also odd - as many of the top ten payrolls (two) are in last place in their division as are in first place.

The Dodgers look to have a live arm to help with the problems at the bottom of their rotation. They rushed their next phenom, Clayton Kershaw, into the lineup straight from Double-A on Sunday. They needed his arm because they have no others - they cut Esteban Loaiza on Saturday because he couldn’t get it done anymore, and they hadn’t found anyone better. They are pretty desperate right now, too - they play 17 straight without a rest, so they will need five arms to keep the Diamondbacks within sight. Kershaw was the first high schooler chosen in the 2006 draft when he went to the Dodgers seventh overall. He was the national player of the year as a high school senior. The 20 year old was 0-3 in Double-A, but he wasn’t getting much run support. His ERA was only 2.28, and the most eye-opening number was his 47 Ks in 43 innings. He has a solid fastball, a nasty curve that drops more than 20 mph from that fastball, and a circle change. His first appearance in the pros was a decent one. He lasted six innings, striking out seven with just one walk. He allowed five hits and two earned runs. He didn’t get a decision, but his new team did beat the Cards. On Tuesday I’m going to take a look at how to deal with these phenoms as they come along.

The biggest single day of car racing of the year didn’t disappoint. Lewis Hamilton won an exciting F1 race in Monte Carlo to start off the day. Scott Dixon followed it up with win in the Indy 500. That result was sweet justice for him - he was the fastest car all month and he stayed out of trouble in a race that was far from accident-free. The biggest non-story of the day was Danica Patrick - she ended up 22nd when she was taken out in pit lane by Ryan Briscoe. The best part was that she looked like she was going to beat Briscoe senseless. The nigh ended with a win by Kasey Kahne in the longest NASCAR race of the year, the Coca Cola 600. As is so often the case, Tony Stewart was the biggest story - he should have won, but he gave up his lead with three laps left when he bumped the wall and got a flat tire.

The Belmont is still two weeks away, but there is no end of intrigue on that front. Big Brown has a small crack in his left front foot. He’s missed two days of training and could miss three more. He’s getting the best possible care, and it’s pretty likely that he’ll be just fine by race time. More interestingly, there are rumors out there that Kent Desormeaux’s agent is angling to get his charge the mount on Casino Drive in the Belmont. The rider of that horse will be named on Wednesday. It seems almost impossible that this would be true sine Desormeaux is on Big Brown, but it opens up a million different possibilities for conspiracy theorists.

Joakim Noah got arrested in Gainesville for drinking in public and marijuana possession. Also, Noah is an idiot.

Phil Mickelson won this weekend with a spectacular wedge shot on the 72nd hole to set up winning birdie putt. Now all he has to do is put together a knockout blow like that against Tiger Woods instead of Rod Pampling.

Here are two things that I’m thinking about concerning the conference finals.

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Almost nobody cares about American open wheel racing outside of one weekend each year. That weekend is here, though, so it is time to pay attention. Even if you aren’t a fan of Indy racing you’ll probably catch a minute or two of the Indy 500 on TV on Sunday. If you’re going to watch then you might as well bet on it, so here’s a look at the big names in the race and their betting prospects.

Scott Dixon (3/1) - Dixon earned the pole, so he is the favorite by a comfortable margin. He has had a good year so far with a win and two thirds in five races. He’s also been one of the more consistent drivers on the circuit the last three years, finishing second in the standings last year and fourth the year before. He’s never won at Indy, but he has been close. He was second last year and fourth the year before. He started fourth both years, so he is a row farther forward, and his car is running perhaps better than ever. THe pole has been a decent place to start from recently - Sam Hornish Jr. won from there is 2006, and so did Buddy Rice in 2004.

Helio Castroneves (9/2) - I never thought I would say something like this, but Castroneves has probably been bet down a bit because he is a good dancer. He won Dancing with the Stars to gain international fame outside of the world of car racing. He’s more than just a pair of fancy feet, though. He’s currently leading the point standings for the ciruit with two second place finishes and two fourth. He’s also a two time winner of this race, though the last of those came in 2002. Castroneves will certainly be a big part of this race, but I’m not convinced that these odds make him much of a value pick - he’s more likely to be close than in front at the checkered flag.

Dan Wheldon (9/2) - The man with the famously bad temper won this race in 2005, and he comes into this year’s version of a win in Kansas. He’s had a rough time of it the last two years at Indy, but his car is faster this year, and he seems more determined than ever. He could certainly win.

Tony Kanaan (5/1) - Sooner or later this Brazilian is going to win an Indy 500. He’s too good not to. He’s held a lead at some point in each of the last five races in Indianapolis, but he’s always found problems and has only found the podium twice in that time. He’s been solid this year, with a second in Kansas and two other top five finishes.

Danica Patrick (10/1) - She’s the biggest name in Indy racing, but she isn’t the biggest bargain. She has a win this year (finally), but her chances of winning aren’t well reflected by these odds. Her car was solid in qualifying, but it was definitely a step below the best. She hasn’t done particularly well here, with back-to-back 8th place finishes. There is a good chance she will be in the picture, but I would confidently say that she would win less than one in ten times this race was run. That doesn’t make her a good bet. She’d look pretty good with a milk mustache if she did win, though.

There are a couple big events happening this weekend. We’ll take a look at the Indy 500 tomorrow, and look at the French Open today:

Men’s Draw

I don’t see this half of the tournament being particularly competitive. There is always the chance that someone could break through - Nikolay Davydenko, for example. It seems by far more likely, though, that one of these three men will win it. If I were forced to pick, I would predict that for the third straight year Nadal would beat Federer in the final. Not original, but fairly safe:

Rafael Nadal - You can certainly pick against the Spaniard if you want to, but you had better have a good reason for doing so. He’s won the last three French Opens, and he has given us little reason to believe that he won’t win a fourth. It looked questionable a couple of weeks ago when he got knocked out of the Rome Masters on clay in the second round. He rebounded very nicely by winning Hamburg the next week, though, and he beat both Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic to do so. Nadal has won 108 of his last 110 on clay. When he is at his best he is unbeatable, and he can be a long way from his best and still be just fine. His dominance is obvious in the odds - Bodog has him as a -150 favorite to win it all. Even if you don’t think he can win four in a row like only Bjorn Borg has done before him, you can still play him in the early rounds with full confidence. The payoffs will be tiny for those games, but they can be handy when played in a parlay.

Roger Federer - He may be the best tennis player in the world, but his dominance doesn’t extend to this surface. It’s not like he’s terrible - he has made the last two finals, and has only lost to Nadal in the last three years. It’s just that he doesn’t have the game to beat Nadal if the Spaniard is anywhere near his best. There’s no need to feel sorry for Federer, of course - he has won the last five at Wimbledon and has been the U.S. Open champ the last four years. Federer is tougher to deal with than in recent years because he hasn’t been playing particularly well this year. He has been struggling with illness and generally lethargic, unfocused play. He seems to have sorted things out recently, though - he looked like his usual ferocious self en route to the Hamburg final. I feel nervous about Federer in later rounds, but he can again be used with full comfort early on.

Novak Djokovic - Djokovic reminds me in at least one way of Andre Agassi - he would have been the best player in the world if it weren’t for Pete Sampras. Djokovic is similarly stuck behind Nadal and Federer, but he is closing the gap nicely. He has made at least the semis in each of the last four grand slam tournaments, and he is coming off his first major at the Australian. His problem is that he is on the same side of the draw as Nadal, so he will face a very tough semifinal. He lost to Nadal at Hamburg, and I suspect that that will happen again here. My confidence is equally high, though, that he will make that semifinal. His clay form is excellent - he won Rome and lost in the semis at Hamburg.

Women’s Draw

Unlike the men’s side, the women are a perplexing mess. That’s because Justine Henin has won the last three versions of the tournament with relative ease, but she returned earlier this month. That throws the door wide open.

Maria Sharapova - She’s the closest thing to a favorite in the field. She won the Australian Open this year, and she has only lost twice all year. She made it as far as the semifinals last year, and she has a relatively kind path to the final this year since she became the number one seed when Henin retired. There are a couple of reasons I am not more excited about her prospects, though. She hasn’t played nearly as well at this tournament historically than in the other three majors. More significantly, she pulled out of Rome with a calf injury, so there are questions both about her health and her preparedness for this surface.

Ana Ivanovic - The second seed is virtually anonymous, but she looks pretty darned good here. She made the finals in the French last year, and in the Australian earlier this year. She’s playing fairly well this year, and she has a game well suited to this situation. There are literally ten or a dozen women who could win this tournament without being a surprise, but I like this Serbian as much as anyone.

Jelena Jankovic - Her seasoning is questionable as she has never reached a grand slam final. What can’t be questioned, though, is her current form. She won in Rome - the most significant French Open prep - and she beat Serena Williams pretty convincingly on the way. She made the semifinal here last year, and she had also won Rome last year,too, so she likes the surface. She’s not the most consistent player in the world, though, so I hesitate to trust her here.

Serena Williams - She is absolutely an enigma, but you can never disregard her if she is entered in a tournament. We can’t be sure how her health is because she withdrew from the quarterfinals at Rome with a back problem. She says she is fine, though. At the French last year she won her first four matches with ridiculous ease, and then played one of the worst matches I have ever seen to Justine Henin. This isn’t her best major, but she can certainly win it if she decides she wants to. That’s abig if. She is almost always a pass for me these days - it’s too hard to figure out if she will care enough to show up.

Now that the the Stanley Cup finals are just around the corner, people may actually start paying attention to Canada’s obsession. Hockey doesn’t get a lot of love, but this final should be enough to please even the most skeptical fan. Both Pittsburgh and Detroit are very good teams that are poised to entertain. As I am getting ready for the series to start on Saturday there are a few things in the hockey world that are interesting and relevant:

• Johan Franzen is practicing with the Red Wings again, and he could be back in action soon. He’ll probably miss game one, but should be ready for the second game in Detroit. That’s big news for the team if he can capture his ridiculous form. The guy has been scary good - he is leading the playoffs in goals scored with 12 despite having missed the last five games of the series against Dallas. Unfortunately for the Wings, his successful return is far from a sure thing because he is struggling to overcome a concussion. Detroit would probably be okay without him, but the more they can score the better given Pittsburgh’s potential for potency.
• The Avalanche made a truly bizarre move on the coaching front today - they hired Tony Granato as their new coach. It’s not that he is a bad guy or a bad coach. It’s just that he was already their coach once before, and they dumped him when someone better came along. He coached for part of one season and all of the next, and he did quite well - 72-33-17-11. Despite that, the team dumped him when Joel Quenneville came along. The biggest knock against Granato at that time was that he couldn’t perform in the playoffs. He spent the last four years as Quenneville’s assistant, and he’s now the head man again. I’m sure he’ll do a decent job, but it’s sure not a move that inspires confidence.
• Pittsburgh goalie Marc-Andre Fleury is in his fourth year in the league, but the last couple of months are the first time I have really felt that he is an elite keeper. As strange as it sounds, it seems as if it was an injury that helped him turn the corner. He had a high ankle sprain at the start of the new year, and since he returned to action he has won 22 of the 27 games he has appeared in and tied another. His goals-against average over that stretch is just 1.62 and his save percentage is .942. Those are superhuman numbers, but he’s playing with incredible confidence and it is carrying over to his whole team. He won’t get the attention of the offensive stars, but I think that Fleury holds the fate of his team on his shoulders.

With about 29 percent of the MLB season played, you’ve got to wonder about a few things. Let’s consider a few teams when it comes to the Junior Circuit.

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Manchester United rules the European soccer world after taking the Champions League final today over Chelsea. If you are North American then chances are pretty good that you don’t care. This was a pretty spectacular game, though, or at least the finish was. They were tied at one after the 90 minutes of regulation and 30 minutes of overtime. That meant that the game and the most prestigious club championship in the world would be decided in the middle of the night in Moscow in the puring rain by penalty kicks. Cristiano Ronaldo, Man U’s top scoring threat and one of the top players in the world, missed his kick and all looked lost. All Chelsea captain John Terry had to do was score and they won. As he approached the ball he slipped and fell, and the ball sailed harmlessly wide of the net. Man U went on to win in extra kicks, and Terry, one of the elder statesmen of English soccer, looked like he was going to hang himself with his consolation medal. You don’t have to like soccer to enjoy this - you just have to like human suffering and pure agony.

A guy finishes second in a cheesy reality show and all of a sudden he is too good to practice. We have known for a while that Jason Taylor’s days with the Dolphins were probably numbered. We learned today, though, that it is his doing. While every player on his team except for him are at a voluntary mini-camp he is in New York for media appearances surrounding his dancing career before jetting back to Los Angeles to meet with entertainment execs about his future in the movie business. It seems that he has no intention of going to a mandatory camp next week, either. He says he still loves football, and that he intends to play again next year, but clearly not with Miami. That makes it very interesting to see where he ends up. He had 11 sacks last year and was a Pro Bowler, so he still has lots of game left, and he can help whatever team he joins. I bet he wishes that L.A. still had a team.

Another high priced starter is headed to the bullpen, but compared to Barry Zito this one is a bargain. Dontrelle Willis and his three year, $29 million contract has been a disaster so far in Detroit. He’s been on the DL since April 13, and he struggled to locate the plate before that. He’s apparently been told by Tigers officials that he will return as a reliever when he does make his return. Though putting him in the pen isn’t a terrible idea, it isn’t one that will likely have a long life - the top three starters other than him have a combined record of 6-16 with an ERA over six, so the rotation needs all the help it can get. If Willis shows anything more than a pulse in the bullpen then he and his goofy hat will be starting again soon.

I’ve pretty much written Pedro Martinez off. He’s been hurt, but he is getting closer to a return. That will be delayed now that he has returned home to be with his sick father. That is acceptable, obviously. What is less palatable, though, is all his talk this week that he might retire at the end of the season. Even that would be fine if he weren’t also talking about an eventual comeback as well. I respect Martinez’ game immensely, and I know that he is as talented as anyone when he is right. The guy is just such a mental case, though, and he’s increasingly bizarre. I find it harder and harder to believe that he will ever return to a point where he will be worth trusting with a bet.

Well, I know one thing with more certainty than I did a couple of hours ago - I like the Bulls next year. I liked them anyway - they were going to have a much better coach (presumably), and they have the talent to be reasonably competitive if they are healthy. Don’t forget, at the start of the season they thought that they were just one player - Kobe Bryant - away. This year was a disaster, but it worked out just fine for them in the end. Against massive odds (just a 1.7 percent chance) they won the draft lottery, and they will have the top pick in the draft. They have three choices. They can adjust their perception of Kirk Hinrich and pick Derrick Rose to run the point. They can throw Michael Beasley into their front court and immediately improve their offense quite significantly. Or, they can trade the pick away.

Any of those choices are possible, but if I were a betting man (and I am), I would lean towards Beasley as the most likely, and the trade as the least likely. Beasley would add an instant inside scoring presence, and he would free up the rest of the talented but troubled group of forwards to play more up to their ability because they won’t have as much pressure to score. Luol Deng would especially benefit from having less of a starring role.

If that happens then Rose would head to Miami. That could be very interesting. Dwyane Wade has never had a truly elite point guard to play with. If Shawn Marion could get along with this freakish point guard better than he did with the last one he played with then he could benefit significantly as well. This is another team that could get better pretty quickly. Both Utah and New Orleans got much better fast when they got their young point guards, and neither team had stars of the caliber of Marion or Wade.

I won’t go into as much detail, but the players would fit in just fine if they went in the opposite order as well. This is when the draft is at it’s best - both of these teams were worse than they should be, and both will be significantly improved next year thanks to their pick. Given that they play in the joke of a conference that is the East it wouldn’t be particularly surprising to see either make the playoffs as soon as next year if their new player fits in nicely and adjusts quickly. In fact, I expect it from the Bulls.

The most entertaining aspect to this draft? Definitely the Mike D’Antoni factor. He seems to have screwed over Chicago when he took the New York job, and now Chicago and not the Knicks have a shot at the player he most covets.

Mondays aren’t supposed to be busy days on the sports front, but this one certainly was. Here are five things that caught my eye today:

1. It was covered here by someone else earlier tonight, but I have to touch on Jon Lester again. Impressive on a couple of fronts - Boston having two no-hitters in less than a year, Jason Varitek catching both games, Lester’s story. It would be an even better story if it had have been against a major league team instead of the Triple-A adequate Kansas City Royals. Based on what I wrote here last week I’ll be taking a very close look at Lester next time out.

2. Man, do I ever hate the Spurs. They keep finding a way to win when it matters - mostly by boring their opponents to death. The worst part isn’t that they are still alive, or that New Orleans would have made for a far more interesting series against the Lakers. It’s that San Antonio now has to be considered the favorite to win it all, and especially so if Kobe isn’t at his best. If I have to see Tim Duncan cut down another net I am more than likely to puke.

3. The Red Wings took a couple games off, but they finally showed up today and exerted their total dominance over the Stars. Pittsburgh did the same thing yesterday after their one game holiday. This sets up the most interesting and likely exciting Stanley Cup showdown we have seen in years. I am leaning towards the Penguins, but it could go either way and I wouldn’t be surprised. It takes a lot to get me to watch hockey in June, but this will do it.

4. Andy Roddick pulled out of the French Open today thanks to a shoulder injury. I like the guy and I respect his game, but I couldn’t be happier. He’s lost in the first round the last two years at the French, and I was not at all looking forward to figuring out if he was going to break that bad habit this time around.

5. The NBA draft lottery goes tomorrow night, and as always the stakes are very high for a lot of teams. Derrick Rose is a player to build a team around, and Michael Beasley could ease a lot of woes as well. As much as I hate to admit it, I think I would like to see the Knicks win it most - watching D’Antoni coach Steve Nash for the last few years was a complete pleasure, and watching him and Rose would be no less captivating. I’d also like to see Memphis get the pick - it would be fun to see them struggle with deciding if they should choose the player who best fits them - Beasley - or the player who will sell the most tickets - Rose. Seattle would be fun, too - Durant plus one of these two would make it easy to draw comparisons between the Sonics now and the Penguins a couple of years ago.