Maddux Sports Blog

I’m sitting here watching the Diamondbacks pound the life out of the Giants. That’s not much of an accomplishment, of course - I could take all the guys that live on my block and probably play the Giants tight. What is pretty clear, though, is that the D-Backs are a pretty fine team. I’m not exactly going out on a limb to say that - the win they are pretty much guaranteed to get this afternoon will move them to 10-4, which is the best record in the league (tied with the surprising Cardinals if they beat Milwaukee tonight). Unlike some of the teams that have jumped out to fast starts (that means you, Baltimore), Arizona has the look of a team that will be there until the end. This doesn’t come as a huge surprise - they are the third choice in the National League behind the Cubs and the Mets to win the World Series in the futures market.

The thing I like most about this team is that, with the exception of Justin Upton (ore about him later) the team isn’t hitting at an unsustainable level. Many of the other frontrunners are hitting out of their minds, but the D-Backs only have two players hitting over .300. That means that they can basically keep doing what they are doing, and keep winning as a result. They aren’t wining a lot of games by just one run (just one of their ten wins), so there is room for their offense to struggle a bit more than it is and still be sufficient to keep them competitive.

Back to Justin Upton. This rightfielder is just 20 years old and in his first full season in the big leagues, but you would never guess it by the way he is playing. He is hitting .388 with a ridiculous OBPS of .1143. It’s always a gamble when you pass the reins over to a guy so young, but he is certainly holding up his end of the bargain so far. He’ll obviously slow down from this ridiculous pace, but he has so much natural talent that the fall shouldn’t be extreme. This guy is the real deal, and he will be a big part of this team for as long as they keep him.

There isn’t a team out there that has a rotation any more effective in the top three spots than Arizona. Brandon Webb is obviously an elite starter, and his 3-0 start with a 2.14 ERA shows that he is right back in his own habits. Micah Owings has matured nicely, and looks as if he will live up to the potential he showed in his first year last year. He’s 2-0 to start, and will move to 3-0 when today’s game is finished. Danny Haren is also 2-0, the addition from Oakland who is making the switch of leagues look as  easy as it can possibly be. Add in Randy Johnson, who looked pretty good in his first action in a long time yesterday, and you have a solid rotation.

So, what’s my point? This is one of those teams that you will be able to rely on when you need a win over the season. They aren’t going to pay a lot because they are no secret to the public, and they won’t present a huge amount of value very often, but they are just a well built, reliable, solid team. A bettor needs a few of those in their repertoire.

• Carmelo Anthony is a moron. He had his worst game of the year on Sunday - 11 points on 3-for-14 shooting. He chose the best and most logical way to get over the embarrassment of the situation - he went out and got hammered and drove home. He obviously got busted, and now he will have a May 14 court date hanging over him if and when his team secures their playoff spot. The Nuggets were a team that could have done some damage in the playoffs, but this kind of distraction is pretty much the worst thing possible for them. It will be very interesting to watch how they react going forward. I can’t decide if it is a good or a bad thing that they don’t play until Wednesday, and then will have days off until the playoffs start.
• It’s far to early to say for sure, but maybe, just maybe, the Tigers have remembered how to hit. They exploded for 11 runs tonight, including innings of four and six runs. That’s the best offense output of the season, and it came from the right place - huge games from Ordonez, Cabrera and Guillen in the middle of the lineup. It’s just one game, but at least it’s a start. The downside is that they allowed nine runs, so the defense was terrible, but they can only really do one thing at a time until they get the ship righted.
• The Ottawa Senators are truly terrible. They have lost three straight games to the Penguins in their playoff series, and they have not given us a single reason to think that they are going to win one before it is over. It is almost incomprehensible that a team could be the best team in the league for the first month of the season and have more talent than the all-star team has had some years, yet they barely made the playoffs and would have been better off if they hadn’t.

Things catching my eye today:

•  I know I have been writing about my hometown a lot recently, but, well, I can, so you’ll just have to deal with it. I was as shocked by the Calgary Flames as I have ever been in a lifetime (most of it, anyway) of watching them. They fell down 3-0 in the first three and a half minutes against San Jose on Sunday night. Normally, the team would just quit when that happens. They didn’t. They tightened up, fought back, and won it 4-3 with a late goal. I never would have said this a week ago, but the Flames are worth a serious betting look. That kind of heart can be deadly in the playoffs.
• The Spurs got smoked by the Lakers this afternoon. They have also been beaten badly by the Suns and the Jazz in the last ten days. Not that it makes me sad in any way, but this does not look like a strong, confident team going into the playoffs.
• Jimmie Johnson won at Phoenix. It was the first win for Hendricks this year after they won 18 last year. I expect this to open the floodgates for wins for the team. They clearly have caught up in testing, and they are not the kind of team that will tolerate losing.
• Congrats to Trevor Immelman, but is it just me or was this a pretty flat Masters? It didn’t seem to have a lot of spark or interest, and it is telling that Tiger can play as badly as we have seen him play in a long while and still end up in second. With all due respect to Immelman, if a guy like him can win it wire-to-wire then it isn’t as good as it can be.
• Michael Beasley is announcing his decision on his future tomorrow. If he stays in school I will chop of my right foot and eat it raw.
• David Ortiz was benched on Sunday after starting the season 3-for-43. Ouch. Big Papi can’t be a very happy guy right now, and he is kinda scary when he is happy, so he would be terrifying when he is mad.
• The game that Ortiz missed was not a pitcher’s duel. Dice-K looked pretty rough, allowing four earned runs in five innings. He was the reincarnation of Cy Young compared to the Yanks’ Phil Hughes. The young prodigy got dinged for seven runs in two innings. If both of those teams lost every night I would be a happy guy.

When the Mets acquired Johan Santana from the Twins in exchange for mostly underwhelming talent it was seen as a steal - a major coup. The conventional wisdom was that he was the most dominant pitcher in the American League, so he would dominate in the weaker National League. He’s only three games into his new career, so it is far too soon to draw any conclusions yet, but if he plans to be dominant then he is easing into it. He’s just 1-2 after a loss on Saturday against Milwaukee, and as such he has burnt a fair bit of bettor money up so far. That’s not going according to plan, but is it time to panic yet? Of course not. Here are six reasons why:

1. K/BB ratio - One of the most glaringly impressive stats that Santana consistently puts forth is his strikeout to walk ratio - between 4/1 and 5/1 the last four years when he has been at his best. This year he has 18 strikeouts and just four walks - a 4.5/1 ratio. I love that stat as a solid indicator of quality, and Santana is at a significantly high level of quality this year as he always is.

2. Run support - Simply put, he hasn’t had any. The Mets have scored just two runs while he has been in the game during his last two outings. The lovechild of Sandy Koufax and Cy Young would struggle to win under those circumstances. The Mets have scored more runs than 18 other teams in the league, and they have the real potential to do much better than they are, so the problems that Santana has faced will be less of a problem as the season continues.

3. Schedule - His losses have come against Atlanta and Milwaukee. Those are two of the better teams in the league - they should both be competitive right to the end in their divisions. If he stays healthy then he will pitch against Washington twice and Pittsburgh once in his next half dozen starts. He’ll look much better in those games. The schedule will soften up and he’ll get his chance to shine against lesser competition through the season. His first start was against Florida, and he had by far his best start of the year.

4. Not typically a fast starter - Santana has won the Cy Young twice - in 2004 and 2006. He has stumbled at the start of both seasons. He had no decisions in each of his first starts in 2004, and was just 2-4 at the beginning of June, but he only lost twice after that point. He wasn’t nearly as bad in 2006, but he did go 0-3 in his first four starts before finding his stride. If he is still underwhelming two months from now then we should be concerned, but not now.

5. It’s not as easy as it seems - Moving from the AL to the NL has been proven to be very hard time and again in recent years. Tim Hudson has looked no better in the lesser league - he has had the same number of wins in his first three years in Atlanta as he had in his last three in Oakland. Barry Zito seemingly forgot how to pitch when he crossed the bay from Oakland to San Francisco. Derek Lowe was lousy in his first year in L.A., and it took Andy Pettitte a year to find his way in Houston. Interleague play and better video technology mean that new pitchers aren’t as mysterious as they used to be when they switch leagues, and batters aren’t as lost as people may think. Santana is going to be fine, and it probably won’t take a whole season, but if it does that’s just fine.

6. It takes time to love a catcher - For the last 3+ year, Santana has been throwing to Joe Mauer every time out. Mauer is among the best in the league, and they obviously worked well together. Now he has to get used to another catcher, Brian Schneider. There are signs that the comfort isn’t there yet - Santana has never had more than seven wild pitches in a season, and he has three in his first three games this year. Schneider has to get used to a new team as well, and he is struggling mightily at the bat, so he isn’t comfortable or at his best yet, either. On top of all that, he has never caught a pitcher anywhere near the caliber of Santana before - he spent his whole career in Washington until this year - so he can’t help but be a bit intimidated. When Schneider finds his stride and he and Santana build a relationship then they will be fine.

So, if you are one of the guys that has lost money on Santana this year and you are trying to figure out what is going on, just don’t worry about it. You may want to lay off him for a while while he gets comfortable, but there is no reason to believe that he is anything other than the Santana we have come to know and love. Maybe we have been watching too much football and college basketball, so we have forgotten just how long the baseball season is, and how meaningless one game is.

The sports info that has caught my eye today:

• The Calgary Flames, my home town team (unfortunately), managed to do something last night in the second game of their playoff series against San Jose that I didn’t think was possible - they got outshot 27-3 in the second period. I am a bit surprised that either 27 shots in a period or three is possible. Disgusting. They have allowed more than 80 shots in the first two games. Not going to win a lot of games that way.
• It will be very interesting to see what Tiger Woods does this weekend. 14 holes into his second round he is still at par. That’s eight strokes off the lead. He’s not out of it by any means, but he certainly needs to start looking far less mortal pretty soon. Since we are talking about my hometown today, Calgary resident Stephen Ames is sitting in sixth and playing very well.
• The Orioles blew both ends of a doubleheader last night. I hope they enjoyed their time at the top, because the fall is going to be swift and painful.
• I was happy to see the Nuggets beat the Warriors yesterday to take the lead in the race for the playoffs. It’s not just that I like the Nuggets better - they should be more interesting to watch, and bet on, in the playoffs, too.
• Felix Hernandez goes tonight for the Mariners. He gets my vote as the unluckiest pitcher in the league so far this year - he has been brilliant and has nothing to show for it. He has allowed no earned runs over 15 innings in two starts, but run support and relief have been non-existent. He’s at home against the Angels tonight.
• New Orleans and the Lakers play tonight in a game that could decide the MVP. As much as I like Chris Paul, I think he would have to have a truly massive game, because I don’t see how voters won’t give it to Kobe otherwise - it is almost impossible to believe he has never won one, and this is the chance to fix that. Paul will have lots more opportunities.Unless the Hornets crush the Lakers and shut down Kobe.

The AL Central has been fascinating so far this year, and I’m not just talking about how bad the Tigers have been. The Royals are a team that I was relatively optimistic about. I’m not crazy enough to love the team - by relatively optimistic I mean better than they have been in four years, but that only means that they need a win total that starts with a seven. Even though, I liked them, though, I certainly didn’t see them jumping out to a 6-2 start and a perch at the top of their division. They swept the Tigers to start the season, faltered lightly against Minnesota, and now they have a chance to sweep the Yankees tonight. That is two presumed playoff teams that have fallen to the Royals. It’s unexpected, but can it be sustainable? How are they doing it, and can they keep doing it?

I liked this team for three main reasons - they have a pitching staff which is better than they get credit for, they have a couple of incredible young hitting talents, and they hired themselves a very good first time manager. So far, things have been going as hoped.

Gil Meche hasn’t been great, but Zack Greinke seems to have his mental problems under control, and he has been almost unhittable. Brian Bannister and Brett Tomko have been almost as good. The rotation is full of talented but underappreciated guys, and they are working well. They won’t stay as strong as they have been, but they don’t have the look of a group that are just counting the seconds until their inevitable collapse, either. There are several teams out there with much more to worry about on the pitching side than the Royals.

The young bats - Alex Gordon and Billy Butler - have been every bit as good as expected. Better, even. Butler is hitting .406, while Gordon is at .303 and leads the team in home runs and RBIs. Besides them you have a couple of guys who are better than they get credit for. First baseman Ross Gload has bounced around a bit in his career, but he has a .295 career batting average in almost 370 games. He’s hitting .345 so far this year. Mark Grudzielanek is seen as a journeyman by most people, but the 37 year old has hit a very solid .290 on his career, and better than that in each of the last five seasons. The fact that he is hitting .407 is a bit of a surprise, but that he is leading the team in batting average isn’t.  It all boils down to this - he team has benefited from hot bats, but they haven’t been overachieving to such an extent that the team will be significantly worse down the road.

Trey Hillman, the new manager, is the third and perhaps biggest element in the big start. The guy is a born motivator - just listening to the guy for two seconds makes you want to jump up and do something. Whatever he is doing is working.

This team has been wildly profitable so far - they have been favored just once, and a $100 bet on each game would have generated a total profit of $698 in just eight games. That pace won’t keep up obviously, but I do suspect that their rate of improvement this year significantly exceeds thepublic perception of the team, and that means that they could provide serious value this year. The last time they were any good - in 2003 when they won 83 games - the public never really caught up to them, and they ended the year as the fourth most profitable team in the league.

I know I am supposed to be leaving college basketball behind and focus on baseball or the NBA or the NHL or something, but I just can’t let it go quite yet. As I was taking one last look at things before moving on I came across the odds for the 2009 National Championship. Now, there are a lot of ridiculously bad bets out there, but none are any worse than these. They are full of sucker bets. Here are some of the more laughable:

The favorites - There is a three way tie at the top, with UCLA, Duke and North Carolina all at +650. Just think about that for a second. Duke was pretty terrible in the tournament, UCLA is losing Kevin Love and Darren Collison, and North Carolina will likely be without Psycho T and Ty Lawson. In other words, you can invest now on a team with a clear deficiency, and two others that will likely have their hearts ripped out of them, and if you are right then you get less than seven times your money a year from now. Where do I sign up?

Kansas State - The Wildcats are at 30/1. Huh? Michael Beasley is gone, and Bill Walker will quite possibly follow. That means they will start with 90 percent of their offense gone (and I am only partly exaggerating). I’m pretty sure that a team has to make the tournament in order to win it, so I don’t see how this makes any sense at all.

Michigan - My beloved Wolverines are at 100/1. Now my glasses are as rose-colored as they can be regarding my team, but this is absolutely laughable. The team was truly awful last year. John Beilein is only now starting to recruit his players, and he has very little existing talent to build on. As much as I wish it were different, I think that 100/1 more accurately represents their chances of making the tournament, never mind winning it.

Memphis - The should-be-champs are at 12/1. Derrick Rose and Chris Douglas-Roberts are likely gone, Joey Dorsey will graduate, and John Calipari is coveted by the Knicks. You would seriously have to be a moron to make this bet.

Syracuse - This one is bizarre, too. The Orange are at 15/1. Now, Johnny Flynn and Donte Greene are very nice players who will only improve this year (unless Greene stays in the draft - it’s questionable at this point), but the team hasn’t even made the tournament in two years, and none of next year’s recruits are can’t-miss blue chippers. Unless Carmelo Anthony has rediscovered eligibility this just isn’t going to happen.

Texas - The Longhorns are also at 15/1. Unlike everyone else on this list they could actually be decent value. Until the second that D.J. Augustin declares for the draft, that is. If he stays back another year, which seems somewhat unlikely, then this team could be the closest thing to a good bet on the board.

Arizona - The Wildcats underachieved this year, and only some of the problems can be attributed to the bizarre coaching soap opera. That will be remedied next year, but Lute Olson will have to figure out a way to make up for the loss of Jerryd Bayless and Chase Budinger. Olson is a legend, but he’s not good enough to make the 30/1 price attractive.

Florida - Let’s get this straight - the team didn’t make the tournament, the coach told anyone who would listen that he hated his players, and the team is once again going to be young, inexperienced, and full of questions. Does that sound like a team that is worthy of being the fourth choice in the country at 10/1?

UConn - The Huskies are at 15/1. Those odds are too low at the best of times, and will be truly ridiculous if Hasheem Thabeet declares for the draft. A guy that big who blocks shots as well as he does will be very attractive to NBA teams, so the temptation will be high.

Louisville - David Padgett is graduating. So is Juan Palacios. Earl Clark is likely to enter the draft. That’s a lot of holes to fill - too many to justify a 10/1 price.

Texas Tech - Bobby Knight didn’t exactly leave the cupboards full, and the Pat Knight era didn’t exactly get off to a running start. Sure, they are one of the longer prices on the board at 75/1, but does that really even come remotely close to reflecting the chances of a championship? Maybe if you add a couple of zeros.

The Field - You can bet every team not listed at 12/1 odds. Sounds like a bargain. Except that they list 57 teams including virtually every major conference contender and some mid-major contenders like BYU and Gonzaga. Unless you think that this is Stephen Curry’s year, or that Tubby Smith is going to perform a miracle in his second year at Minnesota, this is as bad as a bet can be.

I’m battling a bit of a basketball hangover after the end of the tournament, so my mind isn’t really into the sports scene today. I’ll be back in full force tomorrow, and I have a full slate of baseball content on tap for the next few weeks, but I can’t let today go by without commenting on a few things that have caught my eye:

• I didn’t watch the game, but I was very impressed to see that Pat Summitt and Tennessee added yet another national championship, and that they did it in impressive fashion by totally overwhelming a Stanford team that hadn’t lost in months. I don’t follow the sport much, but I can’t help but be amazed by what Summitt is putting together - that’s eight national championships since 1987. Amazing.
• The Tigers dropped to 0-7. They have been outscored 18-2 in their last two. Unbelievable. If you had told me that at this point the Orioles would be the best team in baseball and the Tigers the worst I would have suggested that you check into rehab. It’s obviously way too early to draw any conclusions, but this is truly bizarre.
• Bill Self says that he is looking for ’security’ after winning the title. That’s code for ‘I want three Brinks trucks full of cash or I am going to Oklahoma State’. It will be very interesting to see how this plays out. Kansas really has no choice but to open up their wallets and dump the contents onto Self’s laps.
• Kevin Love and Darren Collison are going pro. Also the sun came up today and the sky is blue.
• LeBron has missed more than one practice with a sore back. Washington and Philly, Cleveland’s two most likely first round opponents, love to hear that.
• Tiger is at even money to win the Masters. Mickelson is at 10/1, Vijay Singh is at 18/1, and Geoff Ogilvy is at 20/1. No other golfers are below 25/1. There are no words to describe how staggering those odds are. Tiger is a terrible bet at that price, but it is hard to pick anyone but him given how he is playing.

Thoughts from the biggest of games:

7:36 p.m. - Not much has been proven in the first six minutes of the game. The teams are just feeling each other out and trying to figure out what will work. Neither team seems uncomfortable or ineffective, so it should be a good game. I am a little surprised that it has been a reasonably low scoring start, but it feels like that could change. I don’t think that we can rule out or elevate either team ion any way based on what we have seen so far.

7:40 p.m. - As a Memphis fan I am a little concerned by how effectively Kansas is forcing Memphis’ big men to take fouls.

7:48 p.m. - Neither Rose nor Douglas-Roberts are plaing their games, and both look uncomfortable. That should change. It had better for the sake of Memphis.

7:51 p.m. - The game has really sped up all of a sudden. The word I would use to describe it is frantic.

8:05 p.m. - Chalmers is doing a great job of containing Rose.

8:12 p.m. - Kansas figured it out at the end and owned the last four minutes. It will be key for Memphis to come out strong in the second half. Rose and Douglas-Roberts look to be lacking confidence. Needless to say, that needs to change. Calipari is a master of halftime adjustments, so this game is far from over.

8:33 p.m. - That was a quietly good half for Douglas-Roberts. He wasn’t as visible as he usually is, yet he is the leading scorer in the game.

8:35 p.m. - Rose looks like a different player in the first minute of the second half.

8:46 p.m. - Memphis seems to have forgotten how to shoot.

8:56 p.m. - Rose has a different look in his eyes the last minute or so. For the first time all game he is aggressive and looks confident. That is bad news for the Jayhawks. It’s not great for the sportsbooks, either - there is heavy action on Memphis.

9:10 p.m. - This is why Memphis is so dangerous - they haven’t really changed much, but they quietly put their foot on Kansas’ throat. It still could change, but for now the Tigers are in control.

9:17 p.m. - With 2:12 left in the game the foul parade begins. That means that the game should end about three hours from now.

9:24 p.m. - Kansas is using fouls to claw back as well as a team can. They are down by two with 44 seconds left. Memphis needs to calm down and keep their head.

9:25 p.m. - Let me say this before we have a final result - this has been a great game that is very worthy of a championship, and the winners will be deserving.

9:30 p.m. - After all that, the foul shooting came back to haunt Memphis. They are going to overtime instead of cutting down the nets because Douglas-Roberts and Rose couldn’t shoot fouls at the end. Mario Chalmers will never have to buy a drink in the state of Kansas again.

9:35 p.m. - Statement of the obvious - not having Dorsey in overtime is bad news for Memphis.

9:37 p.m. - What a stunning turn of fate. Memphis has fallen apart when they had it in the palms of their hands. All the credit in the world to Kansas at this point.

9:42 p.m. - Maybe finally hitting a shot will make a difference, but Memphis looks like they have forgotten how to play basketball. They have given up everything that got them to where they are.

9:48 p.m. - Well, congratulations Kansas. They turned their game around and asserted themselves when it mattered. That one is going to burn in the throats of Calipari and the Memphis players for a long, long time.

9:50 p.m. - College basketball is over for the year. Now what do we do?

That’s the million dollar question, isn’t it? Few people ever thought that Memphis and Kansas would be playing in the final game, so we didn’t spend a lot of time thinking about what would happen if they did. THe public seems to have a pretty good feeling about Memphis. More than two-thirds of bets placed have been on Memphis, and the line has moved significantly from where it opened with Kansas as 1.5 point favorites to the current level of Memphis -2.  So, how is this game going to turn out?

If you go by form of the last couple of weeks then one team is going to blow out the other, and it will only be interesting for the first half hour or so. That seems unlikely in this game, but then it has seemed unlikely in a lot of games that have followed that form, too.

Some experts are saying that it is going to be a defensive battle. There is reason to believe that that could be true. Both teams have played outstanding defense recently, and both did a very good job of shutting down players who had been punishing other teams all tournament. Both teams have the ability to shut down the other team, and both have shown at times this year that they can be frustrated by the right defense. So, a defensive battle could happen.

Unfortunately, so could an offensive battle. Both teams are coming off games that they mostly scored at will, they both have dynamic, explosive offensive weapons, and both can be deadly if they get hot. Kansas has several dangerous offensive weapons, and Memphis has a deadly set of guards of their own. Both teams are stunningly athletic and tough to control. This one could light the board up.

So, what’s going to happen? Well, based on my thought process so far, either Kansas or Memphis is going to win a game that will either be a low scoring defensive battle, a high scoring thrill-fest, or some combination of the two. Helpful, isn’t it? All I can say for sure is that my gut says Memphis, it has been saying that since before the tournament started, that’s worked pretty well for me so far, so I am going to go with it again. I’ll check in throughout the game to see how it is working and share what I am seeing.

I’ll chime in all night with thoughts from both games. All times are mountain time.

4:04 p.m. - Time to settle in and watch some basketball. Just finished watching Colonel John unleash a massive run down the stretch to win the Santa Anita Derby and position himself behind Big Brown and Pyro as the third best looking horse pointed to the Kentucky Derby with four weeks left to go. It was impressive. Now for some basketball. They are doing the cheesy introductions, so we should see some actual game action in about three hours at this rate.

4:16 p.m. - 13-12 Memphis less than five minutes in. This has to be more points and more pace than Ben Howland would like. Memphis is dictating the style, and that is great news for them. I was afraid that the Tigers were going to be intimidated after the quick start by the Bruins, but Memphis quickly counter-punched. UCLA just took a timeout, and they desperately need to slow this thing down.

4:27 p.m. - 10 points in just over seven minutes for Chris Douglas-Roberts. UCLA needs to find a way to control him. Thankfully for them, and for the sake of an interesting game, they have been able to slow the pace down a bit.

4:35 p.m. - You should keep an eye on this kid on Memphis named Derrick Rose. He could be a good player one day. Wow. The guy is freaking everywhere. Incredible.

4:45 p.m. - UCLA is playing a surprisingly sloppy game. They just had an ugly travel call, they turned over an in-bounds pass, and they have generally looked unprepared. I expect that to change significantly in the second half. What may not change is the inability of the team, and most notably Kevin Love, to look like they can match up to the high pace of the Tigers.

4:59 p.m. - UCLA closed it up to be behind by just three at the half. That’s flattering given their effort. The over looks very solid given that the total is just 134, but it won’t be as ridiculously high as it was once on pace to be. Memphis just needs to keep doing what is was doing because it was mostly working. They have a big athletic edge and they asserted it. UCLA needs to step it up. Mostly, they just need to look like a team that wants to win. This one could still go either way pretty easily.

5:21 p.m. - Tough back to back fouls for Dorsey and Taggart. That’s another impressive dimension of Love’s game - he brought both of,the fouls on single-handedly.

5:43 - Joey Dorsey is such a difference maker, especially considering he doesn’t have any points. He just owns the boards, and he has done a solid job of aggravating Love.

5:49 p.m. - UCLA is down by 10 with eight minutes left. They have experience coming back from situations like this, but they don’t have much experience playing teams as good as Memphis is. I’m admittedly biased because I like Memphis so much, but I don’t see a comeback happening here.

6:01 p.m. - That was odd - Darren Collison just took an intentional foul to foul out with almost three minutes left. That was a brainless move, but he had a pretty brainless game, so it fits. Maybe he just didn’t want to be part of a hopeless game any more.

6:05 p.m. - Again, the foul shooting woes are no issue for Memphis. They are over 80 percent tonight and coming through just fine when needed.

6:08 p.m. - Ben Howland deserves a lot of credit for making three straight Final Fours, but he really needs to get it done one of these times. It’s not really an excuse to say he keeps running into hot teams playing well.

6:11 p.m. - The second half slowed down quite a bit, mostly because of the struggles of UCLA. The game only went over the total of 134 in the last minute of garbage time. For a while it looked like the teams were going to double the total.

6:14 p.m. - Memphis is going to be very tough to beat on Monday night. They showed emphatically tonight what an edge their athleticism is, and they have shown all tournament their ability to frustrate and confuse the top players for their opponents, and especially the guards. This team is really, really good. They blew out a very good team and it wasn’t like they had to play beyond themselves to do it.

7:03 p.m. - We are underway with game two. Kansas is off to a solid 9-4 start, and they are forcing the matchups they need. Good start. It can’t be caused by Bill Self’s pre-game talk to his team - they showed the view from the locker room, and Self’s speech was as dull and monotonous as Charlie Brown’s teacher.

7:27 p.m. - I would have checked in sooner, but the pizza wasn’t going to eat itself. I think that the pizza must have been laced with peyote or something, because the only way to explain what I am seeing is that I am hallucinating. This is the most ridiculously dominant performance I have seen in a long time (well, a week - since the first half of the Memphis-Michigan State game). It is 38-12 Kansas with eight minutes left in the first half. There is not a person on the planet that could have seen this one coming. I am stunned by how well Kansas is playing, and how poorly North Carolina is. Roy Williams is looking like he is having three simultaneous aneurysms.

7:31 p.m. - Billy Packer, the king of the overstatement, just said that this game is over. That’s obviously premature, but it is hard to argue with him right now.

7:38 p.m. - Eight minutes without a field goal?!?!?!? Did I really just hear that. This is right out of the twilight zone.

7:40 p.m. - How did Tyler Hansbrough and Cole Aldrich trade bodies? Aldrich isn’t even a good player (yet), but in this game he looks like every great white center in one. Incredible.

7:47 p.m. - How quickly things change. Now it is Kansas that needs to get their act together after allowing ten unanswered. Luckily for them they still have an 18 point cushion to work with.

7:56 p.m. - I would imagine that the North Carolina locker room is neither fun nor quiet right now.

8:01 p.m. - The common trait shared by the two dominant teams so far today is that they have looked wildly superior in terms of athleticism.

8:30 p.m. - Apparently the teams switched uniforms at the half. This is the strangest game I have seen in a long, long time.

8:45 p.m. - Kansas is in a world of hurt, but they just need to calm down and realize that they are still up by seven with seven minutes left. That’s a great place to be if you can just forget that you used to be up by 28.

8:56 p.m. - And just like that Kansas is back in control and North Carolina looks lousy again. The Jayhawks are up by 13 with under three minutes left. This one is over.

9:00 p.m. - Well, we got more of the same with the games today - bizarrely one-sided games with much wider margins than we expected. The blowout is truly the story of the last two weeks of this tournament.

9:02 p.m. - This one isn’t quite over, but I’m done. I’ll sleep on the strangeness we witnessed today, and then weigh in tomorrow with my thoughts on Monday’s game. Not what I was expecting, but it should be great.

I’m going to weigh in tomorrow with in-game analysis during both games. Until then, I just wanted to share a couple of interesting things that have popped up today and provide us with more to think about as we try to make winning picks on the big games:

Kansas loses a player - The Jayhawks become the second team to have to cope with the loss of a minute-eating reserve. Unlike Memphis, though, this was not for disciplinary reasons. In a bizarre incident, guard Rodrick Stewart broke his kneecap in an open practice today. He was mugging for the crowd by doing a big slam and he obviously landed very badly. Stewart, a senior, added just 2.8 points per game, but was good for 11.6 minutes. Like the Allen situation with Memphis situation, I’m not too worried about this one - teams are very likely to shorten their bench and rely more heavily on their starters in a game that is so crucial as this. That’s especially the case when the season ends with a loss, and is almost over with a win, so there is no future to save your players for.

The ‘experts’ weigh in - It is time for the paid geniuses to make their wise picks. There is an interesting contrast between two of the major media outlets. SI.com asked five of their writers who would win. Four came up with UCLA as champions, with three having them beat North Carolina in the final. The fourth has North Carolina beating Memphis. ESPN is a bit different. Three of their five experts has Memphis beating UCLA, though none have Memphis winning it all. Two of them have Kansas winning it all, while UCLA and North Carolina get the nod once. The boldest pick is that he team that is playing best in the final will win it. That’s how you really go out on a limb. If you buy into these expert opinions at all then you have to think that UCLA presents pretty good value in their Saturday game since they are underdogs. The SI writers might want to make a futures bet, too - the Bruins are the longest shots on the board to win it all at 16/5 according to Bodog. Kansas is 3/1, Memphis is 27/10, and North Carolina is fairly significantly favored at 8/5.

The books like their number in the North Carolina game - Almost 80 percent of the bets made so far have been on the Tar Heels, yet the number is still at the -3 that it opened at in most places. That either means that the smart money is hitting Kansas hard enough to balance things out, or that the books are willing to expose themselves at this number. Memphis has had about two thirds of the action, and the line has moved from -1 to -2, so that one is acting more as expected.

The betting-related sports news that is catching my eye in five different sports

Baseball - Pitcher Johnny Cueto of Cincinnati struck out ten in seven innings and only allowed one hit and one earned run to lead his team past Arizona. This guy is ridiculously good, and he should present decent value until the public starts to figure that out.

NFL - Jack Del Rio has signed a five year contract extension with the Jaguars. That’s quite an investment in a guy who has just one playoff win. Unless he has something in his bag of tricks that I haven’t seen yet, this just tells me that the Jags will be decent but not great for the next five years.

College football - There are two quarterback races I am watching closely in spring practices - USC because they have three decent choices, and Michigan because they don’t have any. So far it seems like neither school has an early leader. Michigan only has a week and a half to find one.

NBA - Pau Gasol played 32 minutes in his first game back. He had 10 points, six boards and seven assists. That’s much better than I expected in his first game back, and a good sign for a team that needs a boost.

College basketball - Memphis has suspended reserve guard Andre Allen for the Final Four. I don’t think it is much cause for concern. One on hand he averaged 14.1 minutes per game and played in 37 games, so there is definitely a hole to be filled. He only averaged 3.3 points, though, so chances are pretty good that his time was going to be cut in this game, anyway - Calipari will go with what works best without worrying about the future too much. I’m not going to change my thoughts about the team at all, though I’m a little concerned that whatever happened to get him booted could have an impact on the psyche of the team.

This is the second week in a row that I have written this same type of article. It’s almost as if it is a recurring feature or something.

Here’s what is bouncing through my mind on this hump day:

1. Memphis is still favored? - I am shocked. It’s not that I don’t think that they should be - I have them narrowly favored to win it all. It’s just that I never thought that the public would go this way. It goes to show just how short the attention span of people is - a week ago Memphis was doomed and UCLA was the power.

2. Did Tom Crean get a huge raise? - I sure hope so. I understand the allure of a major program like Indiana, and I know that coaches have gigantic egos that will make them believe that they can do anything - including turning around a broken program. I just can’t imagine the headaches that he is exposing himself to by going from Marquette to Indiana. He probably has no returning starters, he may very well have sanctions to deal with, and his program is as tarnished as one can be. He’ll turn it around eventually, but not before he drives himself insane.

3. Sean Sutton ‘resigned’ from Oklahoma State? - I’m sure that that was a decision that he came to by his own free will. You’ll be able to knock me over with a feather if Bill Self ends up there.

4. What is wrong with the city of Miami? - It’s not just the Heat that are disgusting - The Marlins are a disgrace, too. Mark Hendrickson was their opening day starter. I am fairly surprised that he even made a roster, never mind that he is at the top of a rotation. Of course, you don’t get much when you are paying 33 players less combined than the Yankees are paying A-Rod. That is wrong on so many levels.

5. The Royals are 2-0 and the Tigers are 0-2?!? - Need any more proof that it is a long season and true trends take time to emerge?

6. Are the Mets doomed? Cursed? - Pedro Martinez left his first game with a hamstring injury. He needed the dreaded MRI. Fragility - that’s why I am not as high on the Mets as I am apparently supposed to be. Pedro is far from the only one on the team who is a longshot to last the season unscathed.

7. Did you see the display of closing power put on by the Cubs and the Brewers on Monday? - Both Kerry Wood and Eric Gagne were dishing up meatballs that I KNOW I could have hit. It was as bad as two pitchers not named Brad Lidge can look in their role. I sure don’t like the chances of either of those guys being the answer for their teams.

8. Can anyone get past Denver? - I sure like the Nuggets right now - They have won six of seven, they have a pretty easy remaining schedule, and they are currently in a playoff spot. If they can hold on, and I think they will, then they will be incredibly dangerous. I loved how they bounced back from a lousy loss to the Suns to beat the the next game. A.I. may be a freak, but he’s ridiculously good.

9. The closer I get to Saturday, the less I like Kansas - That’s not a question, just a statement of fact. They could certainly win, but they will have to really surprise me to do so.

10. Is Pau Gasol ready? - He’s not 100%, but he is due back tonight. Think maybe Kobe is just a little happy about that? The last ten days have not been pretty for the heroes of Hollywood.

I was sitting down to take my first long look at the Final Four today when, as I often do, I started to think about whether there were overriding rules that should be followed when handicapping college basketball’s last three games of the year. I tend to do this kind of thing whenever I am faced with an annual event. It’s not because I am looking for a system or a shortcut - those don’t exist, or at least not without a ridiculous amount of research and study to uncover them. Instead, I do it because it helps me to focus better on the games at hand, and to prioritize the ridiculous amount of information that I will be faced with. If you don’t have some kind of a framework to build upon when you look at a wildly public game like these three will be then you are vulnerable to being led astray by the ‘experts’ and whatever topics they happen to be focused on these days. In the last two rounds, for example, it would have been pretty easy to discount Memphis because we heard endlessly how badly they shot fouls and how much that matters. As it turns out they shot very well from the line, and they would have won both games fairly handily even if they had been much, much worse.

As I looked at these games, these are the four basic rules that I came up with to shape my further analysis. I’m not suggesting that these are definitive by any means, but they will definitely define and containing both the starting points of my handicapping and the places where I spend the most time:

1. The better team wins - This may seem obvious, but it bears saying anyway. This is not the time to question which team is more motivated or anything else. Every team has been focusing on this all year, and they will be at their best. We see lots of upsets every year leading up to this point, but we don’t usually see them past here. The job, then, is not too get too fancy or too cute with th whole thing, but rather to figure out which teams are better and to back those.

2. Ignore the spread - Obviously this only holds up to a point - it would be stupid to make a bet without looking at the spread. What I mean, though, is that I will be ignoring the spread until I have evaluated both teams completely. I have glanced at the odds to check for irregularities or rapid shifts, but I haven’t really internalized them because I think it is more important here than usual to have a sense of how I see thing splaying out before I see what the oddsmakers have to say. With the public attention being so intense for these games, and with very public teams being involved, I don’t want to be in a position to be influenced by the spread as I make my decision because I have very little faith that the spread is particularly meaningful in this game.

3. It’s about stars, not depth - The bench players and the lesser starters figure into these games, but the best players tend to shine through on these stages. Florida didn’t beat Ohio State last year because they had a stronger bench. They won because their lottery picks outplayed Ohio State’s lottery picks, and because they had more draftable, star caliber players on the roster. It is no coincidence that all of the remaining teams are packed with future NBA players while teams like Tennessee and Xavier that don’t have the blue chip talent are watching the games at home. My focus, then, will be on deciding which of these ridiculously talented players have the best opportunity to shine in the brightest of spotlights.

4. Coaching matters, but it is not a relevant differentiator here - Perhaps nothing affects a college team as much as how well it is coached. It is no fluke that teams regularly experience rapid turnovers when they dramatically upgrade their coach. I don’t think that there is any merit, though, in trying to compare the remaining coaches. You don’t make this level by a fluke, and each of these coaches is among a fairly small handful of the best coaches in the country. Each has had a stellar career, and has shown again and again that they are worthy of their reputations and huge paychecks. I personally love John Calipari and think that he is a master of setting up a challenging system and recruiting to it. That doesn’t mean, though, that I can rationally say that he is better than Ben Howland - a guy in his third straight Final Four - or Roy Williams and his national title. Bill Self might have the least impressive record of the four, but he has led his third team to at least the Elite Eight and he is a proven winner. I think that it is a real mistake to do anything other than to consider the coaches a total wash and ignore them - any advantage you assign to one over another is much more due to personal bias than to a real advantage.