Maddux Sports Blog

Random notes from Wednesday afternoon:

• You had better get used to the BCS the way it is now because it isn’t going to change any time soon. After much discussion today the BCS officials have chosen to change nothing until at least 2014. There was a proposal on the table to go to a four team playoff in 2010, but that was rejected. According to the officials the BCS is in an ‘unprecedented state of health’. That’s clear evidence that the BCS officials don’t actually watch the BCS games.
• Ugly, ugly game by the Mets today. They lost 13-1. To the Pirates, of all teams. To make matters even worse, nine of the 13 runs Pittsburgh scored were unearned. There’s sloppy and then there is the game New York played today. Five pitcher appeared for the Mets, but just two were responsible for the unearned scores. Oliver Perez started, but he didn’t make it out of the second inning. He allowed seven runs, but only two were earned. He walked five. Jorge Sosa was the third pitcher in, and he made Perez look sharp by comparison. He allowed four hits and five runs (one earned) in one inning. The rest of the team did their part in this mess by contributing three errors.
• We have another drug cheat in baseball. Giants’ catcher Eliezer Alfonzo is out for 50 games after testing positive for performance enhancers. He has been in the minors this year, but he started 113 games over the last two years and had put up respectable numbers. He probably would have found his way back to San Francisco soonif he hadn’t got caught because the drugs were obviously working - he was hitting .306 with 14 RBIs in 16 games.
• The Kentucky Derby is only three days away. The post position draw occurred today, and it featured an odd moment. Big Brown, the Derby favorite, is trained by Richard Dutrow, Jr. He is one of the most obnoxiously arrogant men on the planet. He has been so boastful about his horse that if you listened to him you would wonder why they are even bothering to run the race before giving his horse the roses. No one wants the outside post - number 20 - in the race because the horse has to travel so far to get to the rail. No one except for Dutrow that is. Other posts were available when Dutrow picked his post, but he took the 20. He says it is because he doesn’t want a horse outside of him, but more likely it’s just another way for him to show off. The horse has been unbelievable, but it has to overcome a lot to win here - he has raced only three times, including just two this year. No horse in more than 70 years has won the Derby without having run at least five times before.

Larry Brown has a new coaching gig. Again. The Charlotte Hornets become the ninth team he has helmed, following Denver, New Jersey, San Antonio, Indiana, the Clippers, Philadelphia, Detroit and New York. The prevailing attitude seems to be that he will be a miracle worker in Charlotte. Jim Rome went as far today as to virtually guarantee that the team would make the playoffs next year under his leadership. That’s quite a claim for a team that only won 32 games last year. But what has history taught us about what we can expect from Brown when he joins a new team?

The first place where Brown really established his legend was in San Antonio. He led that team to what was then the single biggest turnaround in league history - 21 wins in 1989 to 56 in 1990. That was impressive, but it is an incomplete story. Brown was also the coach when the team won the 21 games. He took over a team that had won 31 the year before and made little obvious improvement. It was only when the team added Sean Elliott from the draft. David Robinson fresh off his military duty, and Terry Cummings by trade that they were able to turn things around. Brown was in charge, but it hardly took a heroic effort to show improvement with that new talent.Of more note, the team’s number of wins decreased in each of the next two seasons and the team was knocked out of the playoffs in the first round both years.

His previous job at New Jersey could make Charlotte fans more optimistic - he jumped from 24 wins to 44 in year one. He didn’t win a playoff series in two years their either, though. With the Clippers he took over a team that was 22-25 and went 23-12 the rest of the year. The next year the team was 41-41, and Brown left for Indiana. With the Pacers he improved by six wins in his first year and by five more in year two. The team matched the 52 win total in year three but then slumped all the way to 39 wins before Brown resigned.

Brown’s first year in Philly had its struggles. Iverson was only in his second year. The team improved from 22 to 31 wins, but they still weren’t exactly good. A rapid improvement started after that, though, and they were in the NBA finals three years later.

Brown next went to Detroit, but we don’t learn much from that. He won the championship in his first season, but he was handed a complete team that had won 50 games in each of the two previous seasons. We also can’t really learn much from his year in New York because it was such a circus.

So what’s the conclusion? Brown is a very good coach, but he needs two things to succeed - talent and time. Not a lot of time - certainly less than a lot of coaches would need in the same situation - but some at least. There is some decent talent in Charlotte with Jason Richardson and Gerald Wallace, and guys with untapped potential like Raymond Felton and Emeka Okafor. Adam Morrison will be back from a knee injury next year, and they will likely have a new lottery pick in the fold by next season. Brown will have something to work with, but he can’t work miracles, and it will take time for him to get his systems in place and to tweak the talent so that it fits his needs. In other words, I’m sure he will turn the team around (if he sticks around more than a year), but it won’t likely be next year. That could provide an opportunity for bettors - the public is likely to overcompensate for the Bobcats now that Brown is at the helm. This is especially likely early in the year. It doesn’t help his case that he has Michael Jordan behind him - he’s hardly been proven to be the most astute manager of talent.

I’ve been sidetracked by the draft for a few days, but it is time now to get back to thinking about baseball. Here are a few of the things that caught my attention as I was getting caught back up:”

• Barry Zito makes $126 million and now he is heading to the bullpen. That’s ugly but not surprising - he’s o-6 after all. Still, this is a massive fall from grace for a guy who was supposed to be one of the elite arms in the league. A lot of bettors are probably pretty happy to see him go, too - he’s been an underdog in every game he has played, and at some juicy prices, so a lot of people have probably been sucked in by thinking that his next game could finally be the one in which he turns it around. When he’s in the bullpen that temptation is eliminated.
• James Shields had a ridiculously good game against the Red Sox - a two hit complete game shutout with seven strikeouts and just one walk. It was no fluke, though - this guy can pitch. He was 12-8 last year for a team that only won 66 games, and his strikeout to walk ratio was better than 5-to-1. This year he has allowed just 11 runs in six games, and he hasn’t allowed more than three in a game. His ERA dropped a full point from his first year in 2006 to last year, and it has dropped more than 1.3 points so far this year. Best yet he’s only 26, so the best is still ahead of him.
• Since we’re on the topic of pitchers, I owe a mea culpa to Chien Ming Wang. At the start of last year I was positive that this guy was a half-weight masquerading as a top-of-the rotation starter. He’d gone 19-6 the previous year, but I had no faith in his ability to recreate it. He didn’t - he went 19-7 instead. Now he has started out 5-0 on a team that is otherwise struggling, He has had one disastrous start - eight earned runs in four innings against the Red Sox - but in that one his team managed to bail him out and win 15-9 to leave him without a loss. I still can’t say that I’m in love with his stuff or that he’s a guy I like to watch pitch, but I really have no choice but to admit that this guy is an elite starter. Now if only the Yankees had another one to join him.

People will look at the draft from a thousand different ways over the next couple of days. I will certainly resist the temptation to deliver meaningless draft grades, but there are a few things worth mentioning from a betting perspective about this draft:

• First, let me whine for a bit. My football fan rules are very simple - I am fiercely and blindly loyal to Michigan, and I hate anything to do with anyone named Manning. You can imagine my joy, then, that Mario Manningham went to the Giants and Mike Hart is a Colt. I’m not sure what I did to deserve that.
• I hope people keep saying lots of nice things about Kansas City. They had a great draft, and they improved significantly, but they are still going to be pretty lousy this year. The more nice things that are written about them the more the public will  like them and the harder it will be for them to cover spreads. Most significantly, this draft tells us that Brodie Croyle is still seen as the best option. Ouch. I love overly enthusiastic support of NFL teams.
• It’s pretty obvious what the Patriots are blaming for their late-season comparative weakness - the defense. They picked three outside linebackers and two corners. It makes sense - the average age of their linebacking core is about 142. It’s also pretty bad news for the other teams out there - the Pats are very good at continuing to fill their gaps and stay competitive.
• I’m probably going to live to regret this, but at this point the Bills are going to be a team I expect to rise this year. They had a very strong draft - the first corner off the board, the big, impressive receiver they need with a great value pick in the second round, and a ton of bodies to fill needs. On top of it all they are like a new team because they get back the ridiculous number of players that were hurt last year. They won’t win their division, but they will be in the wild card hunt.
• I guess the Jets believe in Kellen Clemens. The only quarterback they picked was Erik Ainge, and he’s a third stringer if he’s lucky. I didn’t see anything at the end of last year to make me that that was a good idea.
• Proof that the draft can be cruel - despite what seems like a ton of picks, lots of good players go undrafted. Prime example - Adarius Bowman was a beast of a receiver at Oklahoma State with 20 touchdowns in 24 games, and he was athletic enough to play basketball  for the Cowboys as well, but he went unpicked. He had a problem with the cops and pot a couple of times, but bigger things haven’t scared teams off of other players.

My draft thoughts as they occur:

1:02 p.m. - To the shock of no one (I hope), Jake Long was the first pick. New York fans stayed classy by booing him. Nice.

1:12 p.m. - Chris Long goes to St. Louis second. The draft definitely isn’t as interesting to watch when the picks are already known. I’m fairly confident that we know that Matt Ryan is going next, too, but we’ll see what happens.

1:17 p.m. - Matt Ryan is kissing his mother, so the Michael Vick era is about to end. A good pick, and it should make things very interesting now. Teams could be active to get Glenn Dorsey. The guy who benefits most from this is Chad Henne - I see him getting picked inside the top 20 now because there are a lot of teams who need a QB.

1:23 p.m. - Darren McFadden is tempting, but I am not completely sold on him, or on Oakland’s need to get a running back this high. If I was the Raiders I think I would have to go with Dorsey.

1:27 p.m. - Goes to show what I know. The best part of McFadden going to Oakland is that it pissed off the Jets fans. I don’t really have any problem with the Jets. It’s just their fans that are so unlikeable.

1:31 p.m. - That means that JaMarcus Russell will be handing off to Mcfadden. It’s handy when players I don’t really believe in are concentrated in the same place.

1:34 p.m. - Dorsey goes to Kansas City. Good pick and good value in that spot. He could have easily gone in any of the first five spots. The only guy left in the green room is Vernon Gholston. There’s a decent chance that he could be there for a while. It depends how badly teams want Sedrick Ellis. If I had to guess I would say that the Jets would trade down to New Orleans or Cincinnati, and that the Patriots are trying desperately to move down as far as they can. On the other hand, the Jets may not be able to resist the perceived value of Gholston.

1:43 p.m. - Gholston it is. I expect him to be a mild disappointment in his career. When he’s good he’s really good, but that’s not all the time.

1:45 p.m. - I’ll be surprised and verging on boredom if the Pats don’t make a trade here.

1:46 p.m. - It’s more fun watching Aaron Rodgers or Brady Quinn go through hell than it is seeing the green room empty out early. Is that wrong?

1:51 p.m. - The trade did happen. New Orleans is on the clock and should take Ellis.

1:53 p.m. - Ellis it is. Now Baltimore should trade down to pick a QB.

1:54 p.m. - Sure enough - Jacksonville trades up. Baltimore is in 26 now. I could see them try to move up a few spots to make sure they get Henne or Flacco - their guy may be gone by then. Jacksonville needs D-line help, so Derrick Harvey would be my guess. I like Harvey more than Gholston.

2:01 p.m. - It is Harvey. Third defensive end gone in eight picks. So far the draft has been pretty predictable, but it should get more interesting now as players get a bit more interchangeable.

2:06 p.m. - Wow, that Jacksonville move was expensive - two thirds and a fourth. I still expect Baltimore to use one or two of those picks to move back up a few spots.

2:07 p.m. - Keith Rivers goes to Cincinnati. Good day for USC so far. Given that they couldn’t get Ellis I like the pick. This pick will work out well as long as the Bengals keep building their defense. He’s a piece, not a complete answer.

2:10 p.m. - Cornerback if the biggest need for New England, and that would likely mean McKelvin. They could have a good corner further down, though, so I would suspect a trade or a pick of Mayo or Albert.

2:13 p.m. - Jerod Mayo is the pick. I love this pick - Mayo is a gem at this spot. Buffalo is next. I will be shocked if it isn’t Devin Thomas. I don’t love that choice, but I think it is the choice. It could be a corner - McKelvin - too. I wish that the Bills would trade down a bit instead.

2:17 p.m. - It was McKelvin. I feel relieved. I like the Bills, and I think that this pick pays off better now and in the future than Thomas. They can get a receiver later on that is not a major step down from Thomas.

2:19 p.m. - Branden Albert can’t fall past Denver, can he?

2:22 p.m. - Yep. Ryan Clady is the pick instead. I’m glad, actually - it’s good to see that Albert isn’t getting rewarded just for being a Combine freak.

2:27 p.m. - Carolina is next, and Johnathan Stewart is getting the buzz. I saw this guy play in person and he was impressive. He’s excellent value here.

2:28 p.m. - He was the pick. I like it. Bears next. Probably an offensive tackle, but we could make this really interesting if they took a quarterback. Won’t happen, but I can dare to dream.

2:37 p.m. - Chris Williams from Vandy is the OT of choice. he and Jeff Otah were fairly interchangeable, so this pick addresses a need. I just hope that the long term plan isn’t for him to protect Rex Grossman and block for Cedric Benson.

2:39 p.m. - Lions next. My first thoughts for them are all gone. I would love to see them take Rashard Mendenhall. They need a running game, and I am really high on this guy. If they don’t take him then Arizona probably will. If Mendenhall ends up behind a decent line I could see him having the top running year of the nice rookie crop.

2:43 p.m. - Finally something out of the blue. The Chiefs traded up into this spot to take Branden Albert (presumably). I like Albert here better than higher up because he is athletic and versatile. He’s very solid value at this pick. Great draft for the Chiefs so far. Great week really - they got maximum value for Jared Allen, and they are so far using their assets well. Mendenhall should go to Arizona now.

2:52 p.m. - If Arizona takes a corner, which is a real possibility, then Matt Millen may have just made the first really good move of his career - trading down for more picks and still getting his guy.

2:53 p.m. - Sure enough - Arizona takes Dominique Rodgers- Cromartie and his one kidney. No complaints about that pick. They can get a second running back later on to complement James.

2:57 p.m. - Wow. The Lions surprised me with that pick - Gosder Cherilus from Boston College. If that was who they wanted they could have traded further down to get better value. I don’t like the pick - not the best available player, nor does it fill the biggest need for the team. That saves me from having to say something nice about Matt Millen at least.

3:00 p.m. - Houston is next. My guess is Jeff Otah, the tackle from Pittsburgh. They need line help. I’d really like to see them move down a bit - say with Baltimore - because they aren’t getting a slam dunk here, and they need lots of help.

3:01 p.m. - Sure enough. Baltimore moves up to get Henne or Flacco. Great move either way. I would love it to be Henne, but my guess is Flacco. Henne will contribute sooner, but Baltimore will probably fall in love with Flacco’s arm.

3:04 p.m. - It was Flacco. Very good day for Baltimore. They got their guy (not my guy, but their’s), and they gained some picks doing it.

3:07 p.m. - Strange how this game works - Flacco is being worshipped as the next coming now, but he left Pitt after two years because he couldn’t beat out Tyler Palko.

3:09 p.m. - Iggles are up. Wide receiver? I like James Hardy and Mario Manningham, but they both have baggage, so Devin Thomas would probably be the choice.

3:10 p.m. - Scratch that - the Panthers traded up for the pick. I would love to see them take Chad Henne.

3:11 p.m. - Nope. They took Jeff Otah to shore up the line and make room for Johnathan Stewart. Not sure I love them trading back into the round for that, but it’s not a total disaster by any means. A decent deal as long as they didn’t have to sell their souls to do it.

3:13 p.m. - Now the Bucs are up. Jeff Garcia could use a target, so I would guess receiver. See my earlier comments regarding the Eagles - I would like it to be Hardy or Manningham, but think it will be Thomas.

3:15 p.m. - I can’t believe we are at number 20 in just over two hours. This isn’t nearly painful enough to be the first round of the draft.

3:16 p.m. - Okay, I hate the Jeff Otah pick. The Panthers gave up next year’s first round pick plus a second and fourth this year. Too much for a team that is more than a player away from being competitive - especially when that player is talented but not polished.

3:20 p.m. - Wow. Another surprise. Aqib Talib of Kansas goes to Tampa Bay. I thought his attitude issues would drop him behind Mike Jenkins. My complaint about this guy is that he takes too many risks that leave him out of position. This pick really tells us what teams think of this year’s receiver crop - not much.

3:22 p.m. - Washington is next. My guess would be Calais Campbell, but the last hour or so has shown how sharp my guesses are lately.

3:27 p.m. - Another trade. After a slow start this is getting very interesting. My guess is that someone is moving up to take a running back.

3:28 p.m. - Atlanta is the team that traded back up. Probably not a runner, then - they have Michael Turner. Could be anything - they have holes almost everywhere.

3:30 p.m. - They took Sam Baker, the OT from USC. I like the guy, but I am surprised that they had to move this high to get him. Still, nice to see them spending to protect Ryan and Turner. No complaints. Dallas is up next. Now they have the fortunate situation of picking whatever running back they want now that Mendenhall has fallen. They might even pick someone else with this pick and take a running back with their next one if they don’t have a strong preference between Mendenhall and Felix Jones. If they did that I would guess Mike Jenkins - Pacman Jones can’t be trusted. If I had to make one pick it would be Felix Jones.

3:38 p.m. - It’s good to get one right again. It was Jones.

3:40 p.m. - Someone is going to get a steal with Mendenhall.

3:42 p.m. - Pittsburgh next. They would have loved an OT but there isn’t one worth taking. A receiver? James Hardy would look good in these colors.

3:43 p.m. - They took Mendenhall. Had to take the best player on the board. He and Willie Parker will be a great backfield. I like the pick, obviously.

3:48 p.m. - Tennessee up next. I’ll make two guesses - they’ll either go receiver with Thomas or defensive end with Campbell. I’d list them in that order.

3:50 p.m. - Wow. The Titans stretch a bit to take Chris Johnson, the ridiculous fast guy running back from the Combine (4.24). A stretch for a team that has plenty of needs. Nice kick return potential, though. Again, this tells us how little people think of the receivers.

3:52 p.m. - Seattle is up. I have had Kentwan Balmer penciled in for quite a while for them and he is available so I won’t change my opinion.

3:59 p.m. - Seattle figures they can drop and still get their guy. Dallas moves up to take someone. Either a receiver or a corner. I guess Jenkins, but wouldn’t be surprised if it was Thomas or Desean Jackson.

4:00 p.m. - Jenkins it is. Nice pick.

4:01 p.m. - Houston is up now in Jacksonville’s spot which they got from Baltimore. Either they stretch a bit for the O-line or they take the best available. DeSean Jackson and Andre Johnson would be a pretty fun duo. I think it is O-line, and I’m pretty sure I won’t like it.

4:05 p.m. - Sure enough - Duane Brown from Virginia Tech is the pick. He’s a guy they probably could have had without worry 20 picks later. It’s not too hard to figure out why Houston has struggled for so long. Lousy pick in my eyes.

4:06 p.m. - San Diego up next. I have had Brandon Flowers here for a few weeks. My opinion hasn’t changed, but surprises are everywhere.

4:10 p.m. - Right position, wrong guy. Antoine Cason of Arizona. No complaints - I like the guy, too. Good pick to fill one of the few needs on the team.

4:12 p.m. - Seattle up next. Still going to stick with Kentwan Balmer.

4:16 p.m. - Lawrence Jackson of USC. Wow. The world loves the Trojans - that’s the fourth one. A bit of a reach in my mind. They could have traded down again if that was their pick.

4:17 p.m. - Still no receivers gone. San Francisco is on the board. I think that they will take Balmer because he is available. It will be someone in the defensive front seven. I would guess.

4:19 p.m. - There it is - Balmer. Very nice pick for them. This defense is getting better and better.

4:20 p.m. - Green Bay up next. Have to think they would love to trade down a bit. A team wanting a QB could be a partner. If they keep it my guess is Kenny Philips of Miami.

4:24 p.m. - Sure enough, Green Bay trades down with the Jets. The trade is to pick Dustin Keller. Nice tight end and nice pick.

4:27 p.m. - Last pick of the round - the Giants. They could do several things - a linebacker like Dan Connor, a safety like Kenny Philips, or whichever receiver they want. I have no clear choice, but I’ll guess DeSean Jackson just because he is flashy and fun. Personally, I just wish that the Giants would fold.

4:35 p.m. - It was Philips. Can’t complain about a guy from the U in the first round.

That’s it for the first round. It was a very interesting one - predictable up top and crazy down below. A lot of teams filled some big holes. It’s obviously way to early to figure out who did well, but kudos to the Chiefs and Baltimore.

I’m going to leave you now. It’s been fun. I’ll be looking to see where the rest of my Michigan boys go - there is some real value in them in my incredibly biased view.

A few quick thoughts on draft-day-minus-one (incidentally, I will be live-blogging throughout the first round tomorrow):

• I can’t decide if I was surprised to see Tyler Hansbrough stay in college for his senior season or not. On one hand, he was a guaranteed first rounder who would make a few million dollars over the next couple of years, and there is always the chance that he could be hurt or do something to fall out of favor. On the other hand, his game is clearly made more for college and he will be the runaway early favorite for Player of the Year next year, so the risk is going to be relatively low. Given that he decided to stay I was a bit surprised that Ty Lawson and Wayne Ellington declared, though neither has an agent so anything could still happen. If I were betting I would say that Lawson will come back for another year because this is a guard-heavy draft and he isn’t going to be in the lottery. He easily could be with a strong year next year. If that happens then Ellington should return, too - he’s likely a second rounder as it is. And if all three guys come back then North Carolina will unfortunately be at least as good as this year. No matter what happens, Roy Williams is having a very good day.
• The Raptors and the Wizards earned much needed bug wins in the NBA playoffs last night. Unless I am missing something that means that in seven of the series only one road team - Philadelphia in game one against Detroit - has won a game so far. If only handicapping were always that easy. The only exception is the Utah-Houston series. In that one the home team has yet to win through three games. Other than that series the home team is at 13-3 ATS.
• Larry Brown has quit his gig with the 76ers to free himself up to take a coaching gig. In related news, Larry Brown really needs to go away.
• Another interesting reminder of how tough it is to draft players on the eve of this year’s edition: Five years agao the Jets picked DT Dewayne Robertson from Kentucky fourth overall. He was seen as a beast, and was the first defensive player off the board - ahead of guys like Terence Newman, Kevin Williams, Terrell Suggs, and Troy Polamalu. He was healthy but unimpressive in his first few years, and unhealthy and equally unimpressive more recently. The Jets tried to trade him to Cincinnati in March, but it fell through. Now they have sent him to Denver for a conditional draft pick that will fall somewhere in the mid rounds depending on how much he plays. Robertson was supposed to be a can’t miss prospect, but he missed pretty badly. We’ll be able to tell the same story about several of the can’t miss blue-chippers this year. It’s just a matter of which ones. My first bet is Vernon Gholston. I was also thinking today of another Big Ten offensive tackle now that Jake Long is locked in on top this year. Robert Gallery was the second pick in 2004 out of Iowa. He went behind only Eli Manning, and he was as close to a sure thing as anyone. Gallery was only okay as a right tackle his first two seasons, terrible as a left tackle in season three, and was moved inside to guard last year where he was adequate but not much more.

The NFL Draft is just a couple of days away (50 hours and 42 minutes if anyone is counting), and like many of you I am in the violent final throes of draft fever. I’ve read (and written) so many mock drafts that I am almost blind, I’ve changed my mind on most players several times, and I have firmly embraced my biases (as a Michigan fan you can imagine how giddy I am right now - take that Suckeyes!). The only thing left for us degenerates to do is to figure out if we can make any money from this thing. Of course the sportsbooks are more than happy to help us out in that pursuit, offering us dozens of different props to throw our money at. Here are some of the most interesting:

First pick - I can’t find odds to bet that it will be Jake Long anywhere. Too bad - I’m feeling pretty good about that one.

Atlanta - There are reports out there that the Falcons aren’t going to pick Matt Ryan even if St. Louis picks Glenn Dorsey (incidentally, there are other reports saying that St. Louis is favoring Chris Long). I don’t see how that makes any sense at all, but if that is the case then there are some nice odds out there. Chris Long is 9/2 to be Atlanta’s pick, and Vernon Gholston is 10/1. The field is at 17/4. I still think tha tthe safest bet is Matt Ryan, but the price isn’t that attractive - 20/23.

Oakland - Darren McFadden is a decent fit here, but I am surprised by how heavily he is favored - 10/17.

Jets - Vernon Gholston is the favorite here at 1/1. I could see that unless McFadden is available (6/5). I also don’t want to rule out seeing the Jets trade down - if Ryan is still available then this will be a prime trade spot because New England would likely trade, too, and Baltimore wants him.

Baltimore - Their favorite is Ryan at 17/10. I don’t love that bet at that price - I don’t see how he is still available there. If he’s not my bet would be for them to trade down, but that’s not a choice.

Buffalo - I’m not positive I understand why they are doing it, but it seems pretty clear that Devin Thomas is their pick. That means that 11/10 is a decent price.

Rashard Mendenhall - You can bet on which team he will end up with. Detroit seems like the most likely choice, but it isn’t as likely as the odds suggest - 1/1. I’ll pass on this one.

Second QB drafted - I think that there is some value here. Brian Brohm is the favorite at 5/9, but I like Chad Henne’s chances a bit better, especially given he is at 9/5. The buzz is big around him, and I especially like the chances if Baltimore doesn’t get Matt Ryan. I don’t think they will, so I llike the Henne bet quite a bit.

Will New England trade their first pick? - I don’t see anyone that they are in love with, and they probably would rather have more picks than a high one. More importantly, New Orleans and Cincinnati could be interested in moving up to get Sedrick Ellis, and there will be a frenzy if Matt Ryan is still alive. The Pats are 13/10 to move down, and that’s worth a look.

All sorts of interesting news that affects the sports betting world today:

• The Vikings are taking a big risk with Jared Allen. He’s a very good player and he’s in his prime, but they gave up three picks for him including a first rounder this year and two thirds, and then they had to ante up with a big new contract for him. He had better be really productive for several years or this can be a setback in a big way. One thing that this does do, though, is it makes me reevaluate my expectations for the Vikings this year and adjust then upwards - they must be serious about competing now if this is the investment they are willing to make. You don’t spend this kind of money and assets unless you think it is one of the final pieces in the puzzle.
• Apparently Memphis isn’t attractive without Derrick Rose. In a bizarre move, both Antonio Anderson and Robert Dozier have declared for the NBA draft. That means that all five starters are now on the list. Obviously the most recent two don’t have agents yet because there is very little chance that either would get picked, and almost none that they would go in the first round and get a guaranteed contract. I never thought that they would look to go now that Calipari has a new contract and super stud Tyreke Evans is headed there next year. Maybe Calipari just suggested that they go through the draft process for the experience and whatever learning they can do. Whatever the reason, I just hope they don’t do something stupid because a senior year at Memphis would probably be a lot more fun than a year in the NBDL.
• Pacman Jones is headed to Dallas. I would say that that is a much needed boost to Dallas’ secondary, but until he gets reinstated, shows that he can stay out of jail for at least a month, and is still in some kind of game shape I am going to assume he is irrelevant. I have no concerns about handling his attitude if everything else is okay - they have done fine with Owens.
• The Reds made a great move. They fired the essentially useless GM Wayne Krivsky and replaced him with Walt Jocketty. Jocketty did great jobs in Oakland and St. Louis, and he should do a great job of turning around a team that has lots of nice young talent but seems to be lacking direction. If nothing else he should provide some stability - he is the fourth GM in six years, so so stability is definitely absent.
• Detroit beat the 76ers easily tonight. The temporary period of panic can end and the sun will come up in Detroit tomorrow after a period of darkness.
• Not that it is surprising because he has always seemed a bit unstable, but Tony Stewart appears to have officially lost his mind. Reports say that Stewart is negotiating to lose Joe Gibbs Racing after this season to go to Haas CNC. If you don’t spend much time following NASCAR it boils down to this - Gibbs is really quite good, and Haas really, really isn’t. Haas has never finished in the top 25 in owner points. The incentive is fairly obvious, though - Stewart is a star, and he will be able to negotiate partial ownership of his new team into the deal. That will allow him to cash in even more on his name and his brand than he does now. From a betting perspective it means that Stewart won’t be an automatic consideration next year like he is now because his car will be behind in development to start, and it will also unleash a chain reaction of driver moves that could further confuse the landscape. NASCAR is a bigger soap opera than the soap operas.

There is nothing that causes more confusion than flat betting. Lots of people say that they flat bet on baseball, yet there are all sorts of different ways that people bet while calling it flat betting. This was reinforced to me yet again the other day when someone sent me a link to a long forum discussion about different kinds of flat betting. Everyone had a different way that they flat bet, and as often happens in forums everyone was sure that they were right. It got me thinking because, well, I flat bet and I think I do it the best way. Or rather, there isn’t a best way - I just use the one that I think works best. I’ll let you decide for yourself, though - here’s a breakdown of four of the ways people flat bet:

1) Bet the same amount in every game - This is the one that should probably be called flat betting, but it isn’t necessarily the best one. In this case you would bet the same amount - your unit - on every game regardless of what the odds are. The big advantage of this approach is the simplicity - you are never going to make a mistake or bet the wrong amount. The problem is that the amount you win is higher the less likely the win is. That’s always true when you are betting on the moneyline, but a good money management system would do something to limit that reality.

Let’s look at an example. We’ll use a $100 unit and three bets - a heavy favorite (-180), a mild favorite (-120), and a mild underdog (+120). The results of all of the different combination of wins and losses would be:

LLL - ($300)
WLL - ($144.44)
LWL - ($116.66)
LLW - ($80)
WWL - $38.89
WLW - $75.56
LWW - $103.33
WWW - $258.89
ROI when all three games are won - 86.3%

2) Bet to win the same amount in every game - This is when you would bet a different amount on each game with the goal of winning the same amount. That obviously means that you would be betting much more on a heavy favorite than on a heavy underdog. Success with this approach depends on one big thing - that you can pick favorites at a much higher rate than underdogs. Using this approach if you are picking a lot of heavy favorites but not winning them at a high rate will cost you money. Of course, no system will save you if you can’t win enough.

Using the same example as above the results would be:

LLL - ($383.33)
WLL - ($103.33)
LWL - ($163.33)
LLW - ($200)
WWL - $116.67
WLW - $80
LWW - $20
WWW - $300
ROI when all three games are won - 78.3%

Compared to the first route, this approach works better when the heavy favorite wins, but is less effective when the heavy favorite loses.

3) Bet to win a unit on favorites, bet a unit on underdogs - This is a common variation of the last example, and I would guess that it is the most common way that people flat bet.

Again with the same example:

LLL - ($400)
WLL - ($120)
LWL - ($160)
LLW - ($180)
WWL - $100
WLW - $100
WWL - $100
WWW - $320
ROI when all three games are won - 80%

You can see why people who are confident in their abilities would favor this approach, though it is a bit more expensive on the really bad days.

4) Bet to equalize risk on all bets - This is perhaps the most confusing, but once you get it it is quite straight forward. This is my preferred approach. The problem I have with the above approaches is that you end up having a preference over which games win. In each of the above cases I would choose to win the game with the underdog if I were to win just one - that would be the most profitable (or the least costly). I don’t like to think that way. I handicap games so that they have an acceptable edge regardless of the odds, so I don’t think that the odds should matter once I have determined it to be a good bet.

To do this, I bet so that the amount I bet plus the amount I will win if I am correct adds up to twice the size of the unit I am using. With a spreadsheet the calculations are simple.

Here’s how the example plays out:

LLL - ($328.57)
WLL - ($128.57)
LWL - ($128.57)
LLW - ($128.57)
WWL - $71.43
WLW - $71.43
LWW - $71.43
WWW - $271.43
ROI when all three games are won - 82.6%

The advantages of this approach to me are that you know going into the games what your outcomes will be depending on the number of games you win. You don’t need to worry about which games win or lose because all games are treated equally and given equal importance. The other thing I appreciate about this approach is that it keeps bet sizes under control.

Conclusion - This is a very simple exploration based on just one example, but you can already get a sense of the strengths and weaknesses of each approach. The important thing is to look at them and determine which approach to flat betting best fits your handicapping approach, tolerance of risk, ratio of favorites to underdogs, and general needs. There really is no right answer as long as you have actively considered the approach you are using.

1. The most ridiculous thing I have read in a long time - SI.com has an article in which Kobe Bryant tells the world that he has no desire the Lakers. What a moron. Sure, he’s the best player in basketball and all, but did he seriously need to say this. We got to spend months listen to him whine and call Mitch Kupchak an idiot and demand a trade and deny it and everything else that made him so ridiculous, but now that he is winning all is forgiven, he is happier than he has ever been, and Kupchak has gone from a F to an A-Plus in his book. It’s not a wonder that people are getting sick of athletes. I’d still bet on his team winning at least two playoff series. I just won’t be thrilled for him when he does.
2. I’m sure he’s not that concerned about it, but I owe LeBron James an apology. I was pretty frank about my dislike of his team’s chances against the Wizards. I thought that Washington was rising while Cleveland was sputtering, and that James wasn’t man enough on his own to carry his team on to the next round. It’s too early to say for sure, but it seems pretty clear that I’m a moron. At least on this front. Maybe more.  James took over the game, his teammates elevated their games, and the Cavs cruised to the easiest possible 30 point win. James was just one board away from a triple double. The change by the Cavs is sudden and clear - they had covered just three times in their last 12 games, but they have covered easily in both playoff games - tonight they only had a 28.5 cushion over the spread. I can take some consolation at least in the fact that I’m not the only one that wasn’t buying in - after Cleveland won the first game by seven as four point favorites they were reduced to 1.5 point favorites in the second game.
3. The Red Sox are as under the radar as they can be (which obviously isn’t very under the radar), so they are running away from their division, and the league at this point, with less fanfare than I might have expected. After all, the Yankees are still the team in the news every day. Make no mistake, though, Boston is running away. They have won nine of 10, they’ve beat the Yankees three of five times, and they have been nicely profitable both at home and on the road. The scary thing for everyone who isn’t Boston is that this thing is reasonably sustainable. Kevin Youkilis is overachieving at the plate, but not as badly as David Ortiz is underachieving, so there is still a net gain to be had there. Dustin Pedroia is advancing nicely, Jacoby Ellsbury looks comfortably on his way to being a star, and Sean Casey has found new life. THe pitching is fine and isn’t pitching out of it’s mind, so it can mostly keep it up, too. In other words, the Yankees and everyone else had better start working to catch up to Boston, because they aren’t likely to fall back to the group.

As the weekend ends, here are the sports betting tidbits that caught my eye:

• What a strange story out of Toronto. Frank Thomas was off to a lousy start, but he led the team in home runs and RBIs last year, so it seems very bizarre that he got released. The story is that he and the team mutually decided that he would move on after he was told his playing time would be reduced. I’m not buying it. There has to be something more to it for it to have gone down this quickly. Regardless, someone will likely snap up Thomas pretty quickly - he’s old and on the decline, but he is still better than lots of guys on lots of rosters.
• Roger Federer finally won a tournament. It took a shocking amount of time for him to get the first one for the year. It will be very interesting now to see when the next one comes - it will be a good indicator of whether his game is back in form, or if the year is destined to be a disappointment.
• It was a little surprising that the 76ers beat Detroit. It’s even more surprising that they not only won, but were significantly the better team. Detroit’s next game will be crucial (there’s an understatement)
• Danica Patrick finally won a race. Does that mean we don’t have to hear about her constantly anymore? Dare to dream.
• If I had been pressed to pick a team to emerge from the NHL’s Western Conference playoffs I would have had to have had a good reason to pick against Anaheim. I can’t even begin to understand, then, how they managed to get tossed by Dallas in the first round, and how they looked so incredibly lousy in their last game. That’s a teamthat is going to go through a pile of changes in the offseason.
• If the first playoff game is any indicator then the Pau Gasol trade could go down as perhaps the best in NBA history by the end of the playoffs.

Looking back on the first round of the NFL draft last year, there were really only a few players that were relevant from the start of the season. Adrian Peterson was a star from the first snap, contributing more than 100 yards in his debut. He revolutionized the Minnesota running game, and changed how you had to look at the team. Joe Thomas was incredibly reliable right from the start, and his play was a big contributing factor to the success of Derek Anderson and the Browns’ offense. Patrick Willis stepped right into the San Francisco defense and played like the Pro Bowler he became. The Niners were truly lousy, but Willis made them significantly better than they otherwise would have been. Marshawn Lynch caught Denver off guard in the first week of the season, and added more than a thousand yards on the year. Calvin Johnson had two of his four best games of the year right out of the gate, and immediately improved the Lions’ passing game. Others put together decent years and some nice stats, but those are basically the ones that handicappers needed to compensate for right from the start of the season.

That made me think - which of the likely first rounders this year will hit the ground running and significantly impact the outcome of their team’s game from the start? It depends on the team that drafts them, of course, but here are five that strike me as possibilities:

Jake Long, OT, Michigan - Long is a left tackle, but he will possibly be moved to the right side in the pros. Wherever he plays he has the ability to step in and contribute immediately much like Thomas did last year. With the proviso that he ends up on a team that has a quarterback who has the potential to improve immediately if he is protected, Long will be able to help give a passer more time, and should have a quick and lasting impact on the stat sheet.

Devin Thomas, WR, Michigan State - Of all the receivers that have first round potential Thomas may not end up being the best pro, but he has a very good chance of being the one who starts off best. There are couple of reasons for this - he has a great mix of size and speed, and he showed a great deal of improvement between his first and second years out of junior college. Most importantly, he excels more than any other receiver at the draft at catching short passes and gaining yards after the catch. He is likely to go high to a team that needs a good first or second passing option, and Thomas will mesh right away as a trustworthy short to mid option.

Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Illinois - Just looking at this list so far makes me think that those that say I have a Big Ten bias might have a point. Regardless, I really like Mendenhall. He won’t be the first back off the board, but he can step in and start immediately for whoever takes him. He is shifty and very tough to tackle, and I think he should have a very solid rookie year. More importantly, he will go mid to late in the round, so he will end up with a team that is decent and can capitalize on his talents from the start. This is a ridiculously deep draft for runners, but Mendenhall is my choice as the early contributor. Darren McFadden may end up having a better career (maybe), but not in the first year.

DeSean Jackson, WR, Cal - I wouldn’t want my team to draft Jackson. His size and durability don’t make me believe he has a long career ahead of him. Regardless, I expect big things from him early in his career. That’s because of his versatility. He can be ridiculously dangerous as a kick returner, and he can fill any number of receiving roles. I think that opposing teams will figure him out eventually, but until they do he could make a splash.

Chris Williams, OT, Vanderbilt - As always, teams are valuing the immediate and lasting impact a strong tackle can have on the offense. After Long is off the board, others like Williams, Branden Albert of Virginia, Jeff Otah of Pittsburgh, and Ryan Clady of Boise State should all come off the board in the first half of the round. Of that group I like Williams best - Albert is a project because he is likely to be moved from guard to tackle, and I like the smarts Williams plays with and the competition he has faced playing in the SEC. If he ends up in front of a quarterback that is worth protecting than that QB should be improved right off the bat.

The NBA playoffs get going this weekend. The first round series range from the totally uninteresting - Boston and Atlanta - to the wildly unpredictable - New Orleans and Dallas or Phoenix and San Antonio. When it comes to early playoff action my interest in always in finding the potential upsets. I generally assume that the first round will go to seed form unless I can come up with a good reason for an upset. Here’s how I see the matchups breaking down in terms of the likelihood of an upset.

Virtually no chance of an upset

Boston and Detroit won’t be upset, and I won’t bother spending much time talking about it.

Chances are low but they exist

The Lakers are rolling, and the Nuggets did a nice job of jumping into playoff contention but weren’t exactly dominant. On top of it all, they have the distraction of Melo’s arrest to deal with. L.A. should be fine.

Yao Ming is out, and Rafer Alston will miss the first two games of the series. Houston put together a nice run, but the reality of losing Ming has come home to roost. Utah is deeper and healthier, and they should be able to milk their strong home court advantage for a win.

An upset wouldn’t be much of a surprise

Orlando is better than Toronto, but the Raptors shoot free throws well and they don’t turn over the ball, so it is not out of the realm of possibility that Canada will be represented in the second round.

Phoenix and San Antonio should not be a first round matchup. These teams are both so good that they deserve better. Unfortunately, the same cane be said for most of the West (and almost none of the East). San Antonio probably has more talent, but not by much, and they were lousy down the stretch. This one is as close to a coin flip as there is.

New Orleans has been a great story this year, but they are inexperienced in the playoffs, and they have some matchup problems with the Mavs. The teams split the season series, and neither team looks to have a big edge in the series. Dallas should be looking to erase the memories of their playoff embarrassment last year.

An upset seems likely

Cleveland hasn’t been very strong since making the trade that changed the face of their team, and LeBron James doesn’t seem to be at the top of his health. Washington is playing well, and Gilbert Arenas is back from injury and is probably the best sixth man in the league. If there was just one upset in the first round I would expect this to be it.

I know that I spend more time talking about the AL Central than anything else in baseball, but it is just so darned fascinating that you can’t look away - it’s like simultaneous car crashes. I was just about to sit down and right a comment of some sort about how the Tigers were finally showing some signs of life - they had won three straight after all, and their offense was hitting on all cylinders. I was also going to throw in a comment about how troubled Cleveland was - they were supposed to be neck and neck with Detroit, and they were, but it wasn’t supposed to be at 5-10. I had been busy all day, and I hadn’t checked out the scores all day, so I took a quick look before making my comments. So much for that article. After Detroit blew away the Indians 13-2 yesterday, they are now trailing Cleveland 11-1 in the 8th.

Cleveland’s best pitcher is C.C. Sabathia. Supposedly. You’d never guess it from the mess that he put out yesterday - nine earned runs in four innings. That moves him to 0-3, and raises some real concerns for backers of the team. I probably would have talked about that for a while, and then tried to find a comparison with the Tigers that made Detroit look better - you know, to build the the argument that Detroit was getting better. So much for that. Justin Verlander, Detroit’s best pitcher, went out tonight and threw out another stinker. He allowed five earned runs in five innings, and unless the Tigers make a miraculous comeback in the ninth he will move to a matching 0-3 record. To confound my problems, I probably would have made some comment about how Fausto Carmona signed a rich new contract and promptly went out and sucked badly in his first game as a rich man. That argument is pretty irrelevant now that Carmona went out and allowed just one run in six and two thirds tonight.

The point is that I have given up trying to figure out what is going on in this division. To make it more confounding, the teams that were supposed to be fighting for the spot at the bottom of the league - Chicago and Kansas City - are instead dueling at the top. It’s things like the start this division is enjoying (some of the teams, anyway) that are good for sports bettors - they remind us that logic isn’t an infallible tool. Sometimes things just don’t make sense, so you might as welll just sit back and enjoy the ride. Enjoy the car wreck, and just make sure that you don’t get caught in it.

• I don’t know what is wrong with Barry Zito, but it is something big. The guy has a world of talent, but he just isn’t right. In fact, he’s a mess. He blew up again today at home against the Diamondbacks - three earned runs and one more unearned in six innings. Of most concern he walked five and only struck out two. You can blame some of his woes on the fact he plays for a lousy team, but by far the bigger issue is that he just isn’t very good. He’s a space cadet, so this can’t be good on his mind, and I can’t be confident in his ability to overcome the problem. Maybe it will turn around, but it is much harder to find a precedent for that than it is to find one for him being done for as an elite pitcher.
• Memphis has lost a lot with the departure of Derrick Rose and probably Chris Douglas-Roberts and the graduation of Joey Dorsey. Things just got a whole lot easier for them today, though, with the signing of another one-and-done superstar. Tyreke Evans is a shooting guard out of Philadelphia who was the MVP of the McDonald’s All-American game this year. He is pretty much a perfect fit for Calipari’s system, and he will make it unpleasant to play in Conference USA for another year.
• Alfonso Soriano is on the DL after straining his calf making a catch. That’s not good news for the Cubs - at least theoretically. Soriano has been brutal so far this year, but he is much better than he has been playing and should be due for an upward adjustment.
• It is curious that Tiger hasn’t really used his knee injury as an excuse for his flat showing at the Masters. It was obviously serious if he went ahead and had the surgery so soon afterward, but I wonder how much of an impact it really had? He didn’t look like he had a bad knee, but he didn’t look right, either. We’ll have to wait for a month or more to get our first clue, I guess.
• I was more than a little surprised that Keno Davis bolted Drake so soon to take over at Providence. That is a step forward, but he’s not stepping into a program in great shape, and he had a family link at Drake and a good deal of success in a short time. Maybe he just knew when to get out when he was ahead. It will be very interesting to watch to see whether he just caught lightning in a bottle, or if he is the real deal. If it is the latter then Providence will be back in the coaching market in just a couple of years.