Maddux Sports Blog

UCLA is a very popular choice to win it all, and they are very likely to find themselves going very deep in most of my brackets. It only makes sense - they have been to the Final Four twice in a row, and this team is just as good as the last two teams. Kevin Love is probably the best player who has played for the team during this run. It’s not all sunshine and roses, though. Two of the starters are hurting. Love has a sore back that has limited his participation in recent days. Luc Richard Mbah a Moute sprained his ankle for the second time this season, and that kept him out of the Pac-10 championship game against Stanford. So, the question is this - should we panic? Will these injuries damage an otherwise promising run? Here’s a look:

We’ll start with Mbah a Moute because his injury is the most serious. He hasn’t practiced with the team since he hurt himself Friday, and he has spent time in a walking cast and on crutches. That’s not good. The last time he hurt himself he missed two games. They won and covered against Washington State, but then they came out and played their worst game of the season in losing to lowly Washington by 10. That’s not promising. Things were a bit more promising following the most recent injury. The team was downcast when he went down against USC, but they were still able to hold off O.J. Mayo and company, and then they handled Stanford, a solid three seed, fairly easily without him.

Mbah a Moute doesn’t put up huge numbers, but he is a huge defensive presence and a calming force. They need him badly.

Love is less of a concern if only because he can play through his problems. He has a sore back, but he has been practicing and is slated to play. He may not be at 100 percent, but he was sore over the weekend and he still played pretty well. It’s obviously not ideal, but it could be worse.

So should we be concerned? Not really. There are a couple of good reasons. First, UCLA won’t be particularly challenged for the first weekend of the tournament. They can almost certainly win both games without Mbah a Moute. It helps on that front as well that James Keefe has played well in the absence of Mbah a Moute the last game and a half. That means that the starter can give himself enough time to heal and be ready. He can take as much as two weeks off if he needs it. That’s how long he took off the last time to heal. The other major factor is that this is the tournament, and this team knows what the tournament is about, so they will be ready to play and win even if they all get their legs chopped off.

If you have a pulse then you have probably already fill out an NCAA Tournament bracket, and you probably will fill out several more before Thursday. I’m not pretending that I have all the answers, but I’m also not that moron in every pool who makes the painfully stupid picks, either. I don’t win every pool by any means, but I’m usually fairly competitive. I’m not suggesting for a second that I am a genius or a guru. I just follow a few rules to avoid making dumbs mistakes. Here are 10 tips for a winning March Madness bracket. It’s not my fault if you win, but you can send me a cut of the winnings if you do.

1. Upsets are for losers. This is the hardest thing for most people to get into their minds. There were only three games last year that could legitimately be called upsets. There were many more the year before, of course, but it doesn’t matter - picking upsets is the way to lose. sadly, the best way to win a bracket is to be conservative and dull. Even if you manage to pick a crazy upset and that team wins a game or two it doesn’t ultimately do you much good because that team will be knocked out before they can earn serious points. On the flip side, if you go out on a limb and call a big upset and it doesn’t happen then everyone else will be earning points from the favorite team as they move through the tournament and you will be left behind.

2. Focus on the Final Four. Unless your bracket has a crazy scoring system, pools are won or lost in the Final Four. Your goal above all else has to be to look at which teams have a legitimate shot of making it through to the third weekend. It makes sense, then, to start there and work backwards.

3. Be loyal to the top two seeds. The one and two seeds earned that distinction for a reason, and they are rewarded for their accomplishments by facing the easiest possible tournament run (not that anything is easy about the tournament). You need to have a good reason to pick an upset for one of these teams. If there isn’t a good reason then assume they won’t lose. Only one championship game since 1989 hasn’t had at least one team from the top two seeds.

4. Be superstitious if you want to. The last nine champions have all come from the Eastern time zone. This proves nothing, of course, but superstition plays as much a part in a winning bracket as anything. If you’re more of a color person, then every team since 1987 has had blue on their uniforms.

5. Skip the bottom four seeds. A 12 seed can occasionally do some damage. No team below that is likely to. The 13s and lower are stuck at the bottom for a reason - they are the winners of lousy tournaments and the flawed teams from major conferences. They also play the best teams in the tournament. Crazy things can happen, but there is absolutely no percentage in betting that they will. If this sounds redundant that’s only because it is so important that I need to keep saying it until you get it.

6. Stick with the power conferences. The winner is going to come out of the ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Pac-10 or SEC. The only time that hasn’t happened in more than 20 years is in 1990 with UNLV. The Running Rebels were incredibly dominant that year. There are some good mid-majors this year, but none anywhere close to UNLV. Picking a team outside of the big six to win it all is an unnecessary risk.

7. Look for scoring teams. At least 20 of the last 23 winners have averaged at least 76 points per game during the regular season. They have also won their regular season games by an average of at least 10 points. Defense may win championships, but not if a team can’t score at will.

8. Coaching experience matters. A team that wins is a team that is coached by a seasoned veteran. Virtually every winner over the last three decades has been coached by a coach that has taken a team to the tournament at least four times in the past. Don’t get overly excited by Drake, in other words.

9. Pay attention to the conference tournaments. Seven of the last ten winners also won their conference tournaments. If you think that that is significant then you can narrow your search down to just six teams - North Carolina, Kansas, Pitt, Wisconsin, UCLA and Georgia. You can be pretty confident that Georgia won’t win it, too.

10. Have fun. Picking a winning bracket requires luck more than anything else. If you take it all too seriously you’re just opening your self up for mockery.

The bracket has just been announced, and I am sure my opinions will change the more I look at it, but here is what jumps out at me as my initial reactions:

Most generous seeding - Washington State. I thought they would be a six or a seven, not a four. I don’t like their chances against Notre Dame, though.

Slaps in the face - Tennessee thought they might still be a one seed and they were the last two. Ouch. Wisconsin was worse, though - I know the Big Ten wasn’t at its best this year, but it is still a major conference, so the regular season and tournament champ deserves better than a three. Butler is a very dangerous seven, too.

Best first round game - Two jump out. USC and Kansas State is a no-brainer. Beasley vs Mayo - it will be a slugfest. I like USC in this one, but it won’t be easy. The other gem is Gonzaga and Davidson. Tough break for the Zags. I think that Davidson could win here and against Georgetown, too, and especially since they are playing in their own back yard. They are shaping up to be one of those lower seeds that will make or break my brackets.

Best potential second round match-ups - Tennessee-Butler, Georgetown-Davidson, Wisconsin-USC, Xavier-Purdue, UConn-Drake.

Best teams at each seed - 1-UNC (though I love Memphis’ bracket), 2-Texas, 3-Wisconsin, 4-Pitt (Though this is a very weak group), 5-Drake, 6-USC, 7-Butler, 8-UNLV, 9-Texas A&M, 10-Davidson, 11-Kentucky, 12-George Mason (for old times’ sake), 13-Siena, 14-Georgia (based solely on momentum), 15-Austin Peay, 16-Portland State

Potential upsets - San Diego over Connecticut, Saint Mary’s over Miami, Davidson over Gonzaga, Saint Joseph’s over Oklahoma. If I had to go out on a limb with one I would take Siena over Vanderbilt - I like Siena and I really, really don’t like the Commodores.

First number one to lose - I really have no idea, and I’m not afraid to admit it. I have concerns about all four, but I could see all of them getting to the Final Four without a problem.

If I had to pick a winner right now - UCLA. Well coached, experience, Kevin Love, and a winnable bracket.

Drake couldn’t have got a better match-up for their first two games. This Cinderella could have wings.

It’s been an exciting couple of days in the world of college hoops. There have been a million things worth paying attention to. Here are 20 to start:

1. The Georgia Dome is obviously cursed. I blame Bobby Petrino.
2. Either the Georgia or Kentucky players are going to sleep well tonight. I wonder when the last time they played twice in a day was.
3. Seeing those two teams play in an empty arena is creepy.
4. Purdue should be ashamed of themselves.
5. So should Indiana. That was a crazy last second shot by Minnesota, though.
6. Minnesota vs. Illinois?!? Didn’t see that one coming.
7. I’m embarrassed to be a Michigan fan right now. That game against Wisconsin was disgusting. I’m not exaggerating when I say that I could have shot as well as they did. And I can’t really shoot.
8. Memphis would have got more out of a scrimmage than they did by playing Tulsa.
9. UCLA vs. USC was a classic. Both teams are poised to do some damage. I am incredibly impressed by how O.J. Mayo has played down the stretch.
10. Luc Richard Mbah a Moute left the game in the first half with an injury. He’ll reportedly be fine, but he’ll miss the game today. That’s a bit scary.
11. The Jayhawks played as badly as a team can play in the first half against Nebraska. They woke up and crushed them in the second half, but the no-show makes me a bit uneasy.
12. Either West Virginia isn’t as good as they have looked recently or Georgetown is playing great.
13. Michael Beasley is truly incredible. I wish we could have seen what he could have done on a team with some depth. He’d make it more fun to be a Miami Heat ticket holder in a hurry.
14. The hatchets are falling already - Providence and Rice have axed their coaches.
15. Xavier lost. I like the team a lot, but I am far from thrilled with their play down the stretch.
16. I find it hard to believe that there are still teams out there that have never played in the tournament, but there are at least three first-timers this year. It’s always fun to see how excited those teams and their fans are for the first five minutes of the game before they are down by 15.
17. Only three more days until the play-in game. Can you feel the excitement? No concept is more ridiculous or in need of a merciful death than that stupid game.
18. Tennessee did not play like a number one against SC. It is impressive how Lofton puts that team on his back when they are in trouble, though.
19. Vanderbilt is a bad joke. I will be very hard pressed not to bet against them in the first round.
20. Spectacular game by Wayne Ellington against Florida State. The Tar Heels are in form.

Some of the things that caught my eye on Thursday during the conference tournaments:

• I hate to admit it because I really don’t like them, but Georgetown impressed me. They beat up on Villanova by shooting the lights out and by absolutely smothering Villanova’s offense, and that did it despite not getting a single point out of Roy Hibbert. They are now the top team in the Big East in my mind based on how they have played their last two big games, and on how lousy Louisville looked in their overtime loss to Pittsburgh. On the other hand, UCLA went into the tournament last year just like Louisville will this year - with two straight losses - and it turned out pretty well for the Bruins.

• Speaking of UCLA, it was good to see them get over their recent habit of just doing enough to win. A week ago they needed that crazy Josh Shipp circus shot with 1.5 seconds left to get past Cal. Yesterday they blew them out by 22. The more I look at how the bracket is setting up, the more I like UCLA’s chances.

• It’s amazing to me how many of the bubble teams came out flat today - Dayton, Arizona State, Florida, Villanova, Baylor. The worst loss was Baylor - tournament teams do not lose to Colorado.

• Michigan won by nine today over Iowa. This is the first chapter in a future Disney movie - team of destiny comes from nowhere to shock the world and make the Final Four despite only nine regular season wins. Us Michigan fans deserve that after the last decade. Unfortunately, Wisconsin stands between us and our fate. Oh well, it was fun to dream.

• I was disappointed by the poor performance by Connecticut. They lost to West Virginia by six thanks to a career high 34 points from junior forward Joe Alexander. The Mountaineers will put up a good fight against Georgetown, but I am disappointed that we won’t see the Hoyas and the Huskies - that one was circled as a potential gem in my book.

• Chris Douglas-Roberts is going to have a very, very big tournament. I’m very high on him, and his play today did nothing to change that. A good performance could vault him up into the lottery where he belongs.

• I can’t wait to see what the Mountain West can do in the tournament. Their tournament is shaping up to be as interesting as any.

Technorati Tags: UCLA Bruins, Chris Douglas-Roberts, Michigan Wolverines, Mountain West Conference, Connecticut Huskies, West Virginia Mountaineers

This time of year, when the conference tournaments are on and we are all waiting to see the brackets, is when I drive myself crazy. Or at least one of the many times throughout the year that I do so. Before I have an actual bracket to handicap I spend much more time than is healthy going blind over every kind of stat I can think of. Partly I am looking for angles and insights that will give me an edge when the tournament starts, and partly I am just keeping myself busy so that the time will pass quicker.

As I was looking back at last year’s tournament to find anything interesting something popped out at me. The winners of all six major conference tournaments made the Elite Eight. Florida won it from the SEC, the Big Ten’s Ohio State was the runner-up, Georgetown won the Big East before losing in the final four, and the Pac-10’s Oregon, the ACC’s North Carolina, and Kansas from the Big 12 all lost in the Elite Eight. On top of that, Memphis won the CUSA tournament before losing in the Eight. Only UCLA, which was upset in the first round of their tournament, made the Eight without a conference title. That’s pretty compelling. Handicapping can’t be that easy, can it? Of course not.

Here’s the breakdown of the four tournaments before last year and the fate of the six conference champions:

(more…)

I was just reading yet another ‘expert’ bashing Memphis. You’ve heard it all - they play in a weak conference and they lost to Tennessee so they are a weak number one seed. There is even lots of talk that they will lose that number one seed unless they win the conference title, or at least make the final. That’s all absolutely ridiculous. I’ll admit I am a big fan of this team, and that I have been for years (ever since John Calipari, one of the few top coaches in the country, showed up), but I don’t think that they are getting nearly enough respect. Here are ten reasons that you should agree with me:

1. Derrick Rose - This kid is ridiculously good, and he is getting better with every game. This will clearly be his only trip to the tournament, and we have seen in the past how players in his position have stepped it up in the tourney - think of Durant and Oden.

2. Chris Douglas-Roberts - He doesn’t get as much attention as some of the other juniors out there, but this guy is among a small handful of the best players in the country. He’s a difference maker who steps up when his team most needs it.

3. Depth - Shawn Taggart and Doneal Mack could start for a whole lot of teams in the country. They don’t often do so for Memphis because there are so many legitimate players ahead of them.

4. Conference - The CUSA can’t be confused with one of the top conferences, but it isn’t nearly as bad as people think, either. Nine of the 12 teams have winning records. UAB beat Kentucky. So did Houston. Both teams were in the bubble discussion. Southern Miss was very profitable, and so was Southern Miss. There are a lot of non-BCS conferences out there that are no deeper or tougher than this one.

5. Winning streak - Even if the conference isn’t the strongest, it is truly impressive that they went undefeated in it. They did that last year, too. The year before they only lost once. 45-1 is impressive regardless of who a team is playing.

6. Non-conference schedule - Few teams have challenged themselves as much or fared as well as Memphis. Just look at the list of tournament teams they have faced besides Tennessee - Gonzaga, Georgetown, Arizona, USC, UConn, Oklahoma, Siena and Austin Peay. They obviously beat all of them, and they were a solid 5-2-1 ATS against them. The idea that this is a team that hasn’t been tested is a total joke.

7. Road trips - The Tigers are 9-0 on the road, and 4-0 on neutral courts. They are 6-6-1 ATS. They won’t be playing the tournament at home, so it obviously helps that they are proven road winners.

8. Versatility - They scored in the 90s regularly. They won with totals of 62 and 63. This is a team that can score with anyone and keep up to any style of game. It will be tough for a team to catch them off-guard.

9. Defense - They are the sixth best team in the country at defending field goals, 16th in stopping the three, and fifth in rebounding margin. They are second in the country in defensive efficiency. If defense wins championships than their aren’t many teams better situated.

10. Tigers are scary - They could attack and kill any other mascot out there. Except maybe the Musketeer if he got lucky.

Technorati Tags: Memphis Tigers, Derrick Rose, Chris Douglas-Roberts, John Calipari

The San Diego Toreros ripped the heart out of all the teams poised on the bubble on Monday night when they won the West Coast Conference tournament. There were two teams that were pretty much guaranteed to go to the tournament from the WCC, but San Diego wasn’t one of them. Now the WCC is a very unlikely a three bid conference, with San Diego joining Saint Mary’s and Gonzaga. The spot that San Diego will take up in the field is one that would have belonged to a deserving at-large team.

So is San Diego totally out of place? The short answer is not particularly. They obviously wouldn’t have been here if they didn’t win the conference, but they had a decent year with a few highlights. They were solid at 21-13, and at 11-3 in their conference they were one of just three teams in the WCC to have a winning conference record. Their only conference losses were to Gonzaga (twice) and Saint Mary’s, and they managed one nice win by eight over Saint Mary’s when they were seven point underdogs. Most importantly for bettors, they were a very nice 10-4 ATS during the conference stretch. They deserve particular credit for their conference tournament run. Over the course of three days they blew out Pepperdine, topped Saint Mary’s in overtime, and then bounced back to top Gonzaga in the final. They couldn’t be coming into the tournament into any better form.

Outside of the conference was a different story entirely. They were only 7-10. Barring another unexpected team getting in, the only tournament team San Diego beat was Kentucky. That was back in December before the Wildcats got their act together, but it is still impressive any time a 13 point underdog wins by nine. Less impressive was the fact that they lost to three potential tournament bound teams outside of the conference, and they weren’t particularly competitive any time. They lost to New Mexico and USC by 10, and UNLV by 11.

There is a bright spot for this team - they can cover spreads. At 21-9 ATS they are among the most profitable teams in the country, and they have failed to cover just once in their last 10 games. Any team that covers seven of every ten games it plays over the course of a season is certainly worthy of a long look. That could be particularly relevant in the tournament, because as a low seed they are going to face a large spread that might work well for them. Unfortunately, as a low seed they are quite unlikely to get more than one chance to cover a spread.

Likely seed: 15

Tournament outlook: Could cover, won’t win

Technorati Tags: San Diego Toreros, West Coast Conference

Drake. Wow. What else is there to say, really. There was every expectation going into the MVC tournament final that the Bulldogs were in for a tough fight against the Redbirds of Illinois State. For a few minutes at the start of the game, when Illinois State got out to a strong start, it even looked like they could be in trouble. But then the Bulldogs put their feet on the throats of the Redbirds and it got ugly. They couldn’t miss a shot for much of the game. They would steal the ball whenever they felt like having it. Their defense was smothering and their offense was relentless, and they cruised to a 30 point win despite only being favored by 2.5. It was as complete and impressive as a game can be.

Watching the game, the biggest thing that struck me wasn’t the disparity in effort, or the fact that Adam Emmenecker is playing with as much confidence as a player can - he reminds me of how Kevin Kruger looked for UNLV in the tournament last year. What struck me is how much of a man-crush the announcers had for Drake. They could go for two seconds without gushing about how good this team is and how amazing their story is. It is a great story, but I think that their blind affection is a sign of an impending problem for the betting public.

The public loves the underdog, and they are going to be all over this team. The game hasn’t been over four 24 hours yet, and I have already heard or seen Drake called the next George Mason more than once. The public is going to jump on the Bulldogs and ride them like a rented mule. I’m not sure that they are going to be up to the challenge of covering inflated spreads. A couple of things concern me. First of all, they didn’t exactly finish the regular season on fire - covering just one of four, and losing three of their final six. More significant, though, is their schedule. Those three losses came in conference, and the MVC is not at their best this year. This could be the first year in a decade that the conference doesn’t get multiple bids if the dice don’t fall the right way in the next week. The announcers said at the end of the game that Drake knows how to play the big players from the big schools. That couldn’t be more wrong. The only two major conference teams Drake played are Iowa and Iowa State, and neither of those schools exactly redefined the sport of basketball this year. The only tournament locks that Drake played all year were St. Mary’s, and the Gaels won by six, and Butler in a BracketBuster battle of the Bulldogs win that was nice. Not exactly the record of a team that is tried and tested again the best of the best.

Don’t get me wrong, I like Drake and I will be pulling for them. I just strongly suspect that my search for tournament value will likely cause me to look very closely at whichever 12 or 13 seed ends up drawing Drake and being given the benefit of an overly generous spread.

Technorati Tags: Drake Bulldogs, Adam Emmenecker, Illinois State Redbirds

I’m not going to attempt to profile every tournament team, but Winthrop is a team that deserves some attention. They are a program that loves to dance. They won the Big South title on Saturday to earn their fourth straight tournament bid, and their eighth in the last ten years. This is their first bid under new coach Randy Peele, who was an assistant under Gregg Marshall before Marshall left for Wichita State.

Winthrop tied for the regular season league title with UNC-Asheville, the home of 7′7″ Kenny George, the biggest guy in college basketball. Asheville swept Winthrop in the regular season, but Winthrop returned the favor when they ran over the Bulldogs in their home gym in the tournament final, winning by 18. Asheville was favored by one, so it was an easy cover for Winthrop. Owing to the fact that they play in the obscure Big South they haven’t seen a lot of games with lines, but this cover moves the to 3-2 ATS on the season.

The engine for the Eagles is senior guard Michael Jenkins. He led the team in scoring for the second straight year, and had a massive 33 point performance in the tournament final. He also led the team in free throw shooting, but that’s more of a sign that the team is lousy from the line - he only shot 69.7%. Beyond Jenkins, it is a couple of other seniors - Taj McCullough and Chris Gaynor - who lead the teams to wins. Gaynor set the all-time career conference assist record in the tournament final.

The Eagles haven’t had a lot of tournament success, but they are always pesky. Their biggest glory came last year when they upset Notre Dame as an #11 seed. That was their only tournament win in school history, and they were no match for Oregon in the second round. They are 3-2 ATS in their last five tournament appearances, but only 3-5 ATS overall. The low point in their tournament experience came in 2002 when they lost by 47 to Duke.

This is not the same team that made the tournament last year, and the outlook for an upset is not good. They should enjoy their time, though, because with the seniors departing it might take a year or two to get back.

Likely seed: 16

Upset?: As a 16? You’re kidding, right?

Tournament outlook: Short stay

Technorati Tags: Winthrop Eagles, UNC-Asheville Bulldogs, Michael Jenkins, Taj McCullough, Chris Gaynor

The regular season comes to and end this weekend, but not before some truly spectacular games are played. There are a staggering number of games worth paying close attention to, watching with rapt interest, and of course betting on. Many of the games will tell us how teams are feeling heading into back-to-back tournaments. Here, in order, are my picks for the 10 best games of the weekend:

10. Florida at Kentucky - The only game on this list from Sunday. As it stands now, Kentucky is probably in the tournament, and Florida is probably out. The selection committee would likely love to have the defending champs in though, and they will be looking for any excuse to include them. A nice win over Kentucky combined with a decent conference tournament win would probably be enough. This game will tell us how much Florida cares.

9. Cincinnati at UConn - Cincinnati isn’t a good team, but they are giant killers. They have wins over Louisville, Pitt and West Virginia, and they cam within a point of UConn last time they met. UConn is coming off a mystifying loss to Providence, and is looking to preserve their tournament seeding (probably a four, though the loss didn’t help). UConn needs a solid showing here for the sake of their confidence, and the confidence of bettors for that matter.

8. Kansas State at Iowa State - Michael Beasley is unquestionably the most exciting player in the country, and almost a lock for top pick in the draft this year. That means that this tournament is our only chance to see him. Right now K-State is probably headed for an eight seed and a tough first round matchup. For the sake of seeing more than one game, I would love to see the Wildcats climb up a seed or two, but to do that they need a huge win here and a deep tournament run.

7. Kansas at Texas A&M - The Aggies are a good team that have had a very bad last three weeks. I can’t stand Kansas, so any chance to see them beat is a good thing in my mind. The Aggies have the talent to contend here, and Kansas has looked vulnerable lately when they have been pushed. I expect the Jayhawks to win, but I would be very happy to be proven wrong.

6. Richmond at Xavier - I have a lot of faith in Xavier, but that faith was seriously put to the test in that mess of a game on Thursday night at St. Joe’s. They never really showed up until it was too late, and they threw away a game they should have won in their sleep. Before I pencil Xavier in deep on my brackets I want them to prove to me in this game and in the conference tournament that Thursday’s game was just a fluke and not a trend.

5. Wisconsin at Northwestern - This one is interesting in a train wreck sort of way. Wisconsin is probably the best chance the Big Ten has this year, and they have rounded into form recently by beating up on four of their last five opponents. Northwestern is just plain awful - they have just three wins over the last 19, and they are hardy against the elite of the country - a struggling Michigan, Texas Pan-American and Chicago State. If Wisconsin is in the right mood this one could get really, really ugly.

4. St. Joe’s at Dayton - The A-10 hasn’t lived up to the potential it looked like it had in the middle of the season. They will likely have two tournament bids, but at one point it looked like they might have as many as five. These two teams are two that have been disappointing. St. Joe’s is right on the bubble, and could get in with a win here and a big conference tournament. Dayton needs more than that. This should be a slugfest between two desperate teams.

3. Stanford at USC - Stanford has a win over UCLA in the palm of their hands on Thursday night, but they threw it away. Now they have to bounce back in just two days and find a way to handle O.J. Mayo and his Trojans. Not an easy task, but made a bit easier by the fact that the Trojans are coming off a tough overtime game on Thursday night, too. Stanford won the first time these teams met (though they didn’t cover). The home team will be looking to change that this time.

2. UNC at Duke - What is their not to like about this game? The teams hate each other, the coaches have been talking smack, and a number one seed could be on the line. If you aren’t excited about this game then you aren’t a college basketball fan. To add to the intrigue, Duke hasn’t lost at home all year, and UNC is unbeaten on the road.

1. Louisville at Georgetown - A true gem to find a winner in the Big East. Louisville is perhaps the hottest team in the country, but Georgetown is far from a slouch. Louisville won fairly easily the first time the two teams played, but Georgetown will be looking to change that here. David Padgett versus Roy Hibbert could be a battle of the titans.

Technorati Tags: Florida Gators, Kentucky Wildcats, Cincinnati Bearcats, Connecticut Huskies, Kansas State Wildcats, Iowa State Cyclones, Kansas Jayhawks, Texas A&M Aggies, Richmond Spiders, Xavier Musketeers, Wisconsin Badgers, Northwestern Wildcats, St. Joseph’s Hawks, Dayton Flyers, Stanford Cardinal, USC Trojans, UNC Tar Heels, Duke Blue Devils, Louisville Cardinals, Georgetown Hoyas

Arch Madness got underway Thursday afternoon. And no, that’s not a misprint. It’s the Missouri Valley Conference tournament, and it is called Arch Madness because it is played under the arch in St. Louis and the MVC is incredibly clever like that. The conference matters because it gets all sorts of buzz, and because teams from the conference have had a habit recently of making a lot of noise in March. Since that’s the case, it is obviously worthwhile spending a few minutes getting to know the conference heading into their tournament.

The tournament started Thursday with the bottom four seeds, but the real action begins Friday. It is particularly important for at least three teams. Drake (25-4) won the regular season, and is all but a lock to make the tournament. Illinois State (22-8) is also in very good shape to go dancing. Southern Illinois doesn’t have quite the record of those two teams (17-13), but they have wins over St. Mary’s and Mississippi State and a solid conference season, so they are in play as well. At this point they would be in my bracket. The thing that could mess the whole thing up, though, is that this is a wildly unpredictable tournament. The top-seeded team hasn’t won it in ten years. The winner gets an automatic bid, and any of those three teams along with Creighton, Northern Iowa, Bradley and Missouri State all have legitimate shots at pulling it off. If one of those bottom four do win it then it could make a real mess of the bracket.

The semi-finals and finals are almost guaranteed to be interesting, and there is one quarterfinal game that I am particularly looking forward to. At 2:35 local time on Friday the #4 seed, Creighton (20-9), plays the #5 seed, Bradley (17-14). Both these teams were very promising earlier in the season, but they couldn’t escape their flaws, and they will likely need to win this tournament to make the big field. Either team has the potential to do that, so it will be very interesting to watch this game to see if either of them looks like they are ready to cause some havoc. To add to the intrigue, the spread for the game is at even at most books, so I’m obviously not the only one who thinks that this one to watch. The winner of the game will likely play Drake in the semis, and that one could be another gem.

Technorati Tags: Arch Madness, Drake Bulldogs, Creighton Bluejays, Illinois State Redbirds, Southern Illinois Salukis, Northern Iowa Panthers, Bradley Braves, Missouri State Bears

I’m tired of reading and hearing of how great the Missouri Valley and A-10 conferences are while no one is saying the same kind of things about the Mountain West. Don’t get me wrong - I love Xavier, and Drake is a great story. It’s just that the MWC is as impressive as those conferences in a lot of ways, yet not nearly as much ink is spilled over it. The conference struggles for attention because it is located away from the east coast media markets (or in the case of teams like Wyoming, away from any media market at all). The east coast snobs are missing out. Just look at the facts:

• The team has had two or three teams in the tournament every year since 2002.
• It has had a Sweet Sixteen entry twice in that time (Utah in 2005, and UNLV last year)
• Air Force made a run to the semis of the NIT last year
• Two teams - BYU and UNLV - are in very solid position to make the tournament this year
• A third - New Mexico - made a very strong case for their inclusion with a huge win over UNLV on Tuesday
• The conference is profitable overall (115-99 ATS), and New Mexico is among the most profitable teams in the country (21-7-1 ATS)
• Three conference teams are in the top 46 in RPI (New Mexico 46, UNLV 27, BYU 23). Compare that to two in the top 50, and one above 36, for the MVC.
• Steve Alford won’t win anything, but he deserves coach of the year consideration for the turnaround in his first year at New Mexico. Dave Rose deserves an award, too, for the job he has done at BYU - at least 70 wins over three years after taking over a nine win team.

I’m not saying that one of these teams is going to win it all, or even go deep. All I’m saying is that teams are not going to be excited to draw a Mountain West team in the first round. If you aren’t paying attention to this conference then you aren’t alone, and you are missing out.

Technorati Tags: Mountain West, UNLV Running Rebels, BYU Cougars, New Mexico Lobos, Utah Utes, Air Force Falcons

The tournament is still more than two weeks away, but it is an incredibly overwhelming event as a sports bettor. There are so many games, and so many ‘experts’ with opinions and insights to offer, that at a bettor can make bade decisions if they haven’t done their work to get ready well in advance. If you wait until the Wednesday before the first games are played you won’t have the time to do the handicapping required, and you won’t do as well as you should. Like the teams that are heading to the tournament, you need to go into tournament training if you want to be at your best for the big event. Here are eight things you can do to get ready to cash in on March Madness:

1. Study the top twenty teams in the country. Most, if not all, of the teams that will earn the top four seeds when the bracket comes out are currently in the top 20. Most of the Elite Eight will come from the top four seeds. That means that you are likely to handicap the top four seeds more often than any other teams over the course of the tournament. That’s a huge advantage. You have two weeks to get to know everything there is to know about the teams. that’s a unique situation in sports handicapping. By the time the games tip off for the first time, you should know these 20 teams as if they are your children. Know the type of offense and defense they run, the kinds of teams they have excelled against and those they have struggled to beat, the top players and their strengths and weaknesses, the vulnerabilities of the team, and the current trend they are on at the end of the season. If you have particular trends and statistics that you favor in your handicapping, then take the time to apply them to these teams in advance. the more you know about these teams in advance, the more ready you will be when the tournament starts.

2. Ignore the hype. The worst thing to happen to sports bettors is the success of teams like George Mason. Now the media and the public are constantly on the search for the next Cinderella story, and they will point at every mid-major team as a possibility. You have to block all of this out. Don’t get sucked into what a team may accomplish unless you can find enough on paper to make you feel that it is possible.

3. Don’t watch the conference tournaments. This may seem odd given the need to know as much about teams as you possibly can, but I firmly believe that the tournaments can create more confusion than clarity. The conference tournaments are unique and prove little. Teams play more games in a short period of time than they are used to, they play against teams that they already know well, and they come in with varying motivations, so it is hard to judge the teams involved in many ways. Unless a team suffers a serious injury during the tournaments, it is far more likely that you will learn nothing helpful from the tournaments, or at least find yourself more confused, than if you just pretend they don’t exist.

4. Study conference winners as they clinch their spot. Over the next week and a half conference will start to pick their representatives for their automatic bids. As each team is named, take the time to get to know them. You want to secure the same basic knowledge that you did for the top 25. Since a large number of the automatic bids are going to be low seeds and likely underdogs in the first round, you will want to pay particular attention to how the teams have fared against top competition. Beyond that, I find it useful to quickly sort these teams into groups - pretenders, contenders for a first round upset, and teams that could be dangerous.

5. Go back to campus. You obviously can’t travel to all of the schools in the tournament, but school newspapers are the next best thing. Schools are thrilled that their teams made the tournament, so it will be a major focus of the campus news rag. Most of those papers are available online, and they can provide first hand knowledge and insight into teams from smaller schools that is far more insightful than what the major media will provide.

6. Get to know the at-large teams. You won’t know for sure which teams are in until Selection Sunday, but any of the major sports media sites will give you a good sense of most of the teams that will find a place, and the approximate seed that they will end up with. Again, you need to study them like you would the other teams on this list. You want to pay special attention to why they are an at-large bid. They weren’t good enough to get an automatic bid, so what was the problem, and will that problem impact their performance in the tournament? In other words, you need to determine whether they are a legitimate contender who is an at-large because they come from a deep conference, or if they are too flawed to go deep and are destined just to fill a spot in the first round bracket.

7. Study historical trends. At the very least you need to know the basics - a 16 seed won’t beat a one, and nines beat eights more than half the time. Beyond that, the more time you spend understanding what has happened in the past, the better chance you have of avoiding costly traps. History often repeats itself in the tournament.

8. Set your own lines. As soon as the bracket comes out, spend the time to set your own lines on the games before you look at what has been posted. If you have done your homework you will get a good sense of what you expect the approximate lines to be, and you can spot any big differences between your expectations and the actual lines. The public often causes bizarre lines in the first round of the tournament, but you can only take advantage if you have a sense of what the lines should be in your opinion.

Technorati Tags: March Madness, handicapping

Sure they play two centers—Tim Duncan and Kurt Thomas. At least they did the other night. The starting rotation of two centers, two small forwards and a point guard says something about the Spurs. They’ve geared up for the playoffs and are ready to play tough and rough inside-the-paint basketball. That fact could be a major plus for the club as they head towards the second season.

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