Maddux Sports Blog

Every year at this time I make a bunch of predictions about the baseball season as it gets underway. I focus on things that will impact the betting side of things, of course. I suppose that it is only fair to disclose that I am wrong more than I am right - predicting what will happen over 162 games is tricky stuff. Regardless, here I go fearlessly plunging into my view of how this season, which is currently in the midst of its third and final opening day of the year.

1. The Tigers will live up to expectations - The hopes are ridiculously high in the eyes of many for Detroit, but they can meet them. They have a stunning amount of power at the plate, more than acceptable fielding, and a very solid rotation. Justin Verlander is going to tear it up this year and has to be the runaway early pick for AL Cy Young.

2. Johan Santana will be all that - A lot of pitchers struggle as they move from one league to another, but Santana is not just any guy. He is an uber-freak, and he has a good team behind him (as long as they don’t face many injuries), so I expect him to pick up right where he left off. Even better, really - he’ll get the wins in solid outings that his teammates couldn’t deliver for him last year.

3. I’m not as excited about the Cubs as many are - I think that they are a solid team, but the rotation doesn’t do it for me, and the bats, though good, don’t have the long history of success that make me feel confident in their virtually certain success. They will certainly contend in their division, and the playoffs are a real possibility, but I’m not ready to give them the World Series yet like some seem to be.

4. Baltimore will be even worse than you think - They have absolutely no pitching, not much hitting, and no reason to be optimistic. Frankly, anything less than 105 losses would have to be seen as a serious victory.

5. I like Cincinnati - They would need some breaks and some quick maturity from their rotation, but they are packed with a staggering amount of talent both on the field and the mound. The upside of their rotation is as good as any in the league. Add Dusty Baker to that and you have a team that could surprise those who expect to see the same old Reds.

6. Sorry Tampa Bay, not this year - I understand the arguments that people are making about why this is finally the year for this pathetic team, but I think that it is still a year or so premature. They have some good pitchers, but they are short on depth. On top of that, their division hasn’t got any easier, and they are too young to stay strong all year. They will be better, but they won’t yet be good.

7. Seattle, Seattle, Seattle - I love this team. I loved them last year and they came through in a big way - they were the second most profitable team in the league. Many seem to think that they will take a step back, but the addition of Erik Berard and the maturity of King Felix makes me believe that the AL West is fully in their sights.

8. I still hate the Yankees and the Red Sox - Nothing short of an apocalypse will change that. I do enjoy watching Papelbon and Chamberlain pitch, though.

9. Prince Fielder may explode - I am watching the Cubs and the Brewers as I write this, and it is perfectly clear that Fielder did not spend a lot of his offseason at the gym or with Jenny Craig. Dude is enormous. I am not a tiny guy, but my wife and I could live fairly comfortably in his pants.

10. Barry Bonds will be somewhere by the end of April - He may be the worst kind of scum, but he still has a very legitimate bat and he’ll sell tickets like crazy, so someone is going to make a deal with the devil. Frankly, I don’t think that it would be a bad move.

For the first time in the 20 or so years that I have been filling out a bracket I have all four Final Four teams. I should be proud of that, but all it really means is that I am a chalk-eating weenie. I did the ultimate newbie thing - take the number one seeds and put them all the way through to the end - and it paid off. That makes me feel like a need to shower for a week or so. Don’t get me wrong - I’ll spend the money if my luck keeps holding. It just seems wrong that something so unimaginative and boring would be the right way to go.

So how did I end up as one of those people that I have always made fun of in the past? How did I end up making pitifully lame picks? I’m not sure, really. I tried hard to talk myself out of it in every region (I didn’t try to hard with Memphis - that was the one that seemed surest to me), but I just couldn’t find a way that I could conceivably feel good about their chances of getting beat. That’s really the story of this tournament to me - for the first time ever we have four number one seeds in the Final Four, each one looked like the best team in their group, and each one proved that to be the case with resounding authority (or something approximating that in the case of Kansas). I am particularly intrigued that this gap between the great and the merely good came in a year in which it seemed for a long time like there were an abnormal number of elite teams and that parity was rearing its ugly head in college basketball.

The big question now is what happens next. These teams have all showed how much better than everyone else they are, but will two of them prove to be prove to be significantly better than the other two, and will one blow out the other? I could make my case for at least one blowout in the next round, but the problem is that I could also make a fairly convincing case for all four teams to win it all. This is going to be a great week of turning these games over and over to figure out what will happen.

Don’t worry, you didn’t miss it - I don’t really have a point. I just think that it is interesting how this turned out, and how notably uncompetitive the games were this weekend. The tournament finds a way to be unique and fascinating every year, and this is certainly no exception. I also find it interesting that the selection committee could be so right with the number ones, yet it seems reasonably clear that the number threes were mostly stronger than the number twos - the clarity only went so deep, it seems.

Tomorrow we’ll take our first look at baseball in honor of the real opening day, and then we’ll spend the rest of the week finding ways to analyze next weekend’s games to death.

Will the last five minutes of a college basketball game ever be interesting or tense again? That’s eight of the last nine which have been over well before they have been over. Tomorrow, hopefully, is another day.

1. Davidson can beat Kansas, and it wouldn’t even be a massive upset. Heck, if I had to rank the eight teams in order of likelihood to win based on the way they are playing Davidson wouldn’t be at the bottom despite their seed.

2. Anyone who calls Davidson a Cinderella team deserves to be slapped. A Cinderella team plays beyond themselves. That’s not Davidson.

3. Take that, Memphis doubters. That first half against Michigan State was the best half of basketball played by any team this tournament. Probably this year. They have to be the favorite to make the final from their side of the bracket now.

4. I never would have thought it possible two weeks ago, but UCLA is arguably the least inspiring of the eight remaining teams based on the way they have played so far.

5. It is amazing to me how often a team can succeed so well up to a point and then look so totally out of place in their next game. Villanova didn’t at any time look like they belonged on the court with Kansas.

6. I get shivers when I think of Louisville - North Carolina tonight. This one could and should be a classic.

7. I’m disappointed by Stanford. I thought that they had more fight in them than that. Unlike that song, they got knocked down but they didn’t get back up again.

8. The Pac-10 isn’t looking nearly as strong as they did coming in. USC went home with a whimper. Oregon and Arizona failed to exceed their seeding. Stanford and Washington State both looked good for a while, but were both wildly outclassed in the Sweet Sixteen. UCLA is alive and favored tonight but has been, by a large margin, the least dominating of the number one seeds.

9. I think that David Padgett is the most important guy on the court tonight. If he can offset Tyler Hansbrough to a significant degree then Louisville can win.

10. In the second half on Friday, Wisconsin looked like a bunch of midwestern farm boys who took a wrong turn somewhere and ended up in Detroit. It was not a flattering day for the Big Ten.

11. Eight teams, seven conferences. Two from the Big 12, none from the SEC or Big Ten. Does this mean that the Southern and the A-10 had better years in the end than those two power conferences?

12. I’m making no predictions, but I do think that underestimating Xavier is a big mistake.

The games on Thursday night weren’t entirely entertaining, and they weren’t too surprising, but they were educational. At first glance, three things pop into mind as I process what happened:

1. Xavier is for real - Xavier struggled in the second half, and they should have won their game against West Virginia easier than they did, but they proved that they certainly aren’t out of place in the Elite Eight - the school’s second berth since 2004. Their balance and depth is impressive, and their discipline is relentless. I know for certain that they don’t have an answer for Kevin Love, but I don’t know that the Bruins have an answer for some of what the Musketeers through at them, either. Western Kentucky succeeded in the second half with an up-tempo shooting fest and they will get all of that and more from the Musketeers. Xavier consistently makes the big play when they need it, and they will need several on Saturday. If I was forced then I would say that UCLA would probably win, but an upset would not be an overwhelming or impossible one.

2. The right two teams came out of the East - Perhaps the six most impressive, dominant performances of the entire tournament have been played by two teams. Neither North Carolina nor Louisville has particularly been challenged yet despite playing good teams, and both have looked terrifyingly flawless. It’s really a shame that the two teams have to play this early in the tournament, but it is going to make for one heck of a game on Saturday. Both teams are playing great, they match up reasonably well, they both have strengths that will give the other guys gigantic headaches, and they have perhaps the two best coaches in the country on the bench. I had serious doubts about both Washington State and Tennessee, but they are unquestionably both very solid, so the ease with which the two winners handled them is incredible.

3. Kevin Love is the best player in the tournament - Tyler Hansbrough is great, and Stephen Curry is the story of the year, but Love means more to his team and affects the game more than any other payer still playing (or any not playing, for that matter). He had a truly spectacular game on Thursday with a career high for points. It’s not just his scoring and rebounds that make him so good, though - it’s his presence. It is incredibly hard to believe that he is only a freshman. He does whatever his team needs at the time - when was the last time you saw a big man dribbling the ball down the court after the point guard gets fouled out? He’s balanced, talented and impressive.

It is a heck of a line-up of games we have to look forward to tonight and tomorrow night. There are only a couple that have a real risk of being duds, and several that could come down to the last second. Here is my ranking of the games in order of my level of anticipation as a fan and a bettor:

8. UCLA vs Western Kentucky - I have been pretty impressed by the Hilltoppers so far, and the Bruins are struggling with injuries, but I still can’t see a way in which this one is particularly close UCLA is bigger, stronger, faster, and a huge step up in class from previous opponents.

7. Kansas vs. Villanova - I would love this one to be close, but Kansas has more experience, and I don’t see how Villanova is going to handle Mario Chalmers. He’s red hot right now.

6. Memphis vs. Michigan State - I have seen the Spartans enough this year to know that they are as inconsistent and untrustworthy as any team in the tournament. I don’t think that they can handle Memphis’ athleticism.

5. North Carolina vs. Washington State - I don’t buy into the Cougars, and I really don’t like watching them play. North Carolina is balanced, dominant, and just plain scary right now. It may be a fight, but I bet not.

4. Xavier vs. West Virginia - The top four games could really go in any order on this list. This game could be really interesting, or it could be a flop. Xavier lacks star power, but they are deep and disciplined. West Virginia has found ways to exploit the flaws of their opponents so far. One team is going to be pushed off its game plan.

3. Stanford vs. Texas - You know how sometimes you just feel like a team is in trouble but you can’t precisely put your finger on why? Both these teams are like that to me.

2. Davidson vs. Wisconsin - What happens when an explosive offense keyed around one player comes up against a dominant defense with an impressive big man? It didn’t end well for Georgetown, and it will be very interesting to see what happens here.

1. Tennessee vs. Louisville - What’s not to like about this one? Two great coaches, the hottest team in the tournament, and a team that thinks they should have been a number one. There are storylines all over the place in this one, and it could go either way. A potential classic.

As I sit here thinking about the tournament, and about the sports betting world in general, here are 10 questions that are bouncing through my mind:

1. Can Western Kentucky be remotely competitive against UCLA? - Their center is Jeremy Evans, a 6′9″ sophomore who weighs in at a whopping 190 pounds. Kevin Love is taller and 70 pounds heavier. I think I fear for Evans’ life.

2. Is Lofton’s injury for real? - Tennessee’s heart and soul is reportedly wearing a walking cast after suffering a light injury against Butler. Maybe. Everyone says he will be fine for the game, and I wouldn’t put it past Bruce Pearl to mess with Louisville’s heads by overplaying the injury. At the very least it takes attention off the fact that the Vols don’t have a point guard.

3. Can Davidson do to Butch what it did to Hibbert? - Davidson’s speed and brilliant guard play frustrated Hibbert all day and rendered him close to useless. That’s almost entirely why they won. That was against the best team in the country at defending the field goal. Now they have to do it all over again against the third best team. Butch is a bit more versatile than Hibbert, but if Davidson can work the same magic then this game could be very interesting. If Davidson can turn it into a shooting contest then they win. And then Stephen Curry could run for president and win.

4. What will Mitch Johnson do? - The Lopez twins get the attention, but Stanford beat Marquette because point guard Johnson got 16 assists. His previous season high was eight. Texas is a huge step up in class, and Johnson will have to perform well again to help his team. Can he? What can we expect? He obviously won’t have 16 again, but Marquette plays solid defense and Johnson only turned it over once, so he is obviously in a zone of some sort. Good play from Johnson will allow the Lopez boys to exert their serious size advantage over Texas.

5. Is Xavier being disrespected? - Xavier is a three seed and West Virginia is a seven, yet the Mountaineers are favored by as much as 1.5 points. Is that unfair or is it a reflection of reality? I like Xavier much more than West Virginia in general, but depth-on-depth I don’t see how the Musketeers don’t have an edge. I also think that West Virginia is in for a shock because unlike Duke this team actually plays very tight defense and actually gets a rebound or two. I’m explaining West Virginia’s unexpected (to me) favoritism away by them beating Duke, the ultimate public team, and because Joe Alexander is way more visible than any of Xavier’s players.

6. Is David Padgett ready for the big time? - I don’t want to oversimplify, but if the Louisville big man steps up and has a huge game then Louisville will win because Tennessee has no good answer for him. Padgett definitely can do it. It’s just a question of whether he will.

7. Does Villanova have a chance against Kansas? - The odds say no given that the spread is 11.5, and my instinct is the same, but then I didn’t think they had much of a chance in their first game, either, and that turned out just fine. Scottie Reynolds is firing on all cylinders, and he will give Kansas a test. I’m not saying I am picking Nova by any mens. I just think it could be interesting.

8. Was Josh Howard making a statement? - In the first game without Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas’ de facto leader came out and had a huge game with 32 points. I’d say that that was a statement game, and that he is showing he is readying to lead a team that desperately needs a leader, but I have two reservations. First, it was only against the Clippers. I think I could get 15 against the Clippers, and I haven’t played on a team since junior high. Second, Howard was sent to the line a ridiculous 15 times, and he was perfect in those attempts. Lower the opportunities and his shooting percentage down to more reasonable levels and you are left with a more pedestrian game. Howard could certainly step up, but I am still reserving judgment over whether he will because this game proved nothing.

9. Can we fold the NBA East? - The Nuggets are sitting outside of the playoffs in the West at 43-28. The Hawks have the eighth spot in the East at 30-40. That is wrong on so many levels. There is a decent chance that a 50 win team won’t make the playoffs in the West. In the East that would get you home court advantage.

10. What’s wrong with Tiger? - How bizarre is the world of golf when a guy finishes fifth in a tournament out of well over 100 guys and you have to wonder what went wrong?

I want to take a minute away from the tournament for a second because it is on hiatus and focus instead on the pros. One thing I am fascinated by more than almost anything in the NBA is the impact of serious injuries on a team from a betting perspective. Given that, what is going on with Dallas right now is as good as it gets. Dirk Nowitzki went down to the ground with a crash against San Antonio, and it was immediately obvious that he was in trouble. It appears that he has sprains to his knee and ankle. Initial reports were that he was out for two weeks, but the team has shied away from setting a timeline and it could reasonably be much longer. It never seems like a big guy comes back from a leg injury faster than expected.

The Mavs have lost their best player while they are in the heart of a playoff race. It seems ridiculous to think that a team that is on pace to win 50 games would be in danger of missing the playoffs, but the West is truly ridiculous and that is indeed the case. They are currently in seventh place, but Golden State is right on their tales and can score a ton and ninth place Denver is right behind and has found their stride recently. Dallas, on the other hand, is neither playing particularly well nor consistently lately - they have won just five of their last 11, ad the losses have come in two three game streaks. The addition of Jason Kidd hasn’t been a disaster, but it hasn’t lifted the team particularly, either, and now they have to make due without the big man.

The statistical numbers are bleak for Dallas. Nowitzki leads the teams in scoring, rebounds and assists, he is tied with Josh Howard for most minutes per game, and he’s a strong second in blocks and right up their in shooting percentages. To state the obvious, he is the heart and soul of the team. They already aren’t a high scoring team - at 100 points per game they lag behind six of the eight teams they are racing for the playoffs with. More significantly, it seems more reasonable that Josh Howard will take a step back instead of a step forward without Nowitzki, and it is hard to see who is going to step up and fill the scoring void. Points could be hard to come by. Unfortunately we can’t look back to see how the team typically performs without the German giant because he has never missed a significant block of games.

It’s not just the offensive side of the ball that will struggle without Nowitzki. Dallas makes up for the lack of explosive offense by playing disciplined defense - seventh in the NBA. Unfortunately, Nowitzki is at the heart of that, too. The team will sorely miss his blocks and rebounds, and he is one of the relatively few big men who is committed to defensive play. Scoring fewer points and allowing more points does not seem like a formula for sucsess.

All in all, the outlook is pretty bleak. Teams can often rise up in the face of adversity - just look at Houston without Yao Ming. Unlike Houston, though, this isn’t a team that has been playing with an overwhelming amount of heart or passion, and they don’t have a lot of thrilling talent to step up and take the lead. Houston had Tracy McGrady, and while Josh Howard is a very nice player he doesn’t have the leadership or the credibility to step up and lead. That leaves the burden on a bunch of guys who were much better once than they are now. The schedule doesn’t do them any favors, either - seven of their remaining 12 games are against West playoff contenders including three against the two teams that are chasing them. They also are only at home for five games, and they have struggled on the road all year.

In the end I don’t think that things are going to go well for the Mavericks. What I am very curious about, and what I will be watching closely is what that means to bettors. On one hand the team will likely struggle, but the public is also likely to run away from them in droves because of the injury. If the team performs reasonably well then that could create some real value, but then they are just 30-36-4 ATS on the season, so they haven’t exactly been value stars to begin with. It will be very interesting to see how it all plays out. Until I have a better sense I’ll probably stay away from them, but the Nuggets and the Warriors, both playing the Mavs at home, will be pretty tempting this week.

After four long and intense days of watching college basketball I’m taking a bit of a break. I’m not burned out by any means - how can get you get burned out by something as great as college basketball. I just feel like the best thing for my intensity and focus is to take a day where I don’t spend a lot of time thinking about basketball. That means that I will feel ready to jump right back into it tomorrow to get ready for another weekend and to see if there is any value available in any of the other tournaments.

That’s not to say that I’m not paying any attention at all. I am an addict, after all, so I can’t go completely cold turkey. There are a couple of news items that have caught my eye today because they may or may not factor pretty heavily into next weekend’s action:

1. Villanova center Casiem Drummond is out for the year - The 6′10″ sophomore broke his ankle against Siena. I’m not at all worried about his absence, but I really hope that the public sees the headlines and jumps all over it like they do with most injuries. Drummond is the only pure center on the Wildcats’ roster, so people may think that this is a big problem for Nova. It isn’t. First, the guy has only played eight minutes and scored four points in the tournament. More significantly, the team is very overmatched by Kansas anyway, and the presence of a middling center wouldn’t change that.

2. Bruce Pearl won’t name a starting point guard for Thursday - This is a much bigger story, and a much bigger concern. Tennessee has looked fine in the tournament, but they still haven’t excited me any more than they did down the stretch. They are lacking in two big areas - point guard obviously, and an inside presence. The fact that Pearl is playing these games would make you think that he could just be messing with the media, but if you watched the two games the team played then you know this isn’t true. That means that he is legitimately concerned about the problem. That’s not a good place to be when you are heading into a game with a team as hot as Louisville. It makes me like the Cardinals even more than I already did. Unfortunately, everyone else will have seen the two big Louisville blowouts, too, so the chances of finding a line with any value are pretty slim.

1. The Big East confuses the heck out of me - Coming into the tournament I felt reasonably confident that the Big East was the strongest conference. Now I’m not so sure. In some ways they have been better than expected, while in others they have disappointed.

The Good - Villanova has been a pleasant surprise, and a very good indicator of what the future holds for the ridiculously young team; West Virginia asserted themselves nicely in two tough games, and they showed that you can be a sleaze bag and still be a great coach; Marquette did everything asked of them and should be proud; Louisville was ridiculously dominant, and though it is far too early to do such a thing, I am penciling in Louisville - North Carolina as the best game of the tournament.

The Bad - Notre Dame should be disgusted with themselves; apparently people were too quick to elevate Pitt to legend status based on a few tournament wins and should have instead paid more attention to their countless disappointments during the season; UConn has the luxury of getting a mulligan in the San Diego game because of the A.J. Price injury, but I am not totally convinced that they wanted that game badly enough to win with him in there; Georgetown lost to a very good and well seasoned Davidson team with an incredible player at the helm, but they gave up a pretty huge lead to do it.

Overall, the expectations for an eight bid conference would be four teams in the second round and two in the Sweet Sixteen, so they exceeded both nicely with six and three. The problem is that only one of those three teams, Louisville, is a legitimate contender, and they have to get past two incredibly tough opponents just to make the Final Four. I will have to re-evaluate this next statement if two of the three teams wins next weekend, or if Louisville makes it to San Antonio, but right now I have to think that the overall tournament is going to be a bit of a disappointment for the conference.

2. The winner will be… - I have no idea really, and probably less than I did before it all began. With some confidence, though, I can say that I think that the winner will come from this list - North Carolina, Louisville, Kansas, Wisconsin, UCLA. It pains me a bit to leave Memphis off, and I may come back and edit this post at a later date to avoid embarrassment if the need arises, but I just don’t think that anything the South has to offer measures up to the scariness we have seen in other groups.

3. I have a serious man-crush on Stephen Curry - Actually, I have known this one for quite a while now. I’ve been impressed by a lot of players over the last four days, but none more than Curry. The guy is quite a bit shorter than me and I’m too short to start for most power conference teams. He weighs about 12 pounds, which is coincidentally also how old he looks. He has a team around him that is solid and fun to watch, but the coaching staff certainly doesn’t have to worry about any of them bolting for the draft. Everyone in the world knows he is going to get the ball almost all of the time. Despite all that, though, he pretty much single-handedly has won two games for his team. Few if any other players have 55 points in the two games. Curry has that many in the two second halves alone. People will trip over themselves in the next couple of days to find ways to describe Curry as a March Madness discovery, but that’s ridiculous. He had 30 against Maryland in the tournament last year, and he has been a dynamic scoring machine during the regular season for the last two years.

1. I’m a big Big Ten guy, but I obviously need more self-esteem when it comes to my conference. I thought that we were coming into the tournament looking pretty unimpressive and were on the road to embarrassment. Instead, we have two teams in very good shape. Michigan State put together a solid, impressive win over a Pitt team that was supposed to upset Memphis in the eyes of many. Wisconsin came out and really elevated their chances in my eyes today with a big win over Kansas State. They totally smothered an impressive offense and controlled every aspect of the game. I have lots of excuses for the conference in my back pocket, but they may just get to stay there for a while.

2. Marquette deserved a better fate. That was a rough way to lose for a team that gave it their all and more. This is a case of the weird things this tournament can do - I had Stanford in my bracket, but I found myself cheering for the Golden Eagles down the stretch.

3. The best part isn’t that Duke lost. The best part is that West Virginia didn’t have to play out of their minds to beat them. They did some nifty things like messing around with their guard rotations, but mostly they just had to let Duke show the world how much they suck. That makes me happier than words can express.

4. The Big 12 is the only conference that hasn’t lost as a top seed. The SEC and the ACC have each done it twice. I’m not sure what that means other than that the SEC is weak and the ACC lacks depth, but we knew that coming in, didn’t we? The Big East has done it twice, too, with Pitt and Connecticut. I can’t explain that.

5. The more I look at it, the more I get excited to see Villanova-Siena tomorrow. It’s a ridiculously unlikely match-up, but the teams will be able to give each other serious headaches. I have no real idea what will happen, but then I had Clemson and Vanderbilt in my bracket.

6. What the heck happened to Notre Dame? Was Charlie Weis their guest coach? Was that Jimmy Clausen on the point? The basketball team played like the football team.

7. If someone had kneed Darren Collison in the groin after he dunked it with no time left against Texas A&M I wouldn’t have minded. A layup would have worked just as well and not been nearly as obnoxious. Heck, he was alone and ahead, so dribbling to the buzzer would have been fine, too.

8. At some point UCLA is going to have to start playing more than 15 minutes a game to win. Maybe.

9. After covering just once in their last five games down the stretch, Xavier has covered comfortably in both of their tournament games so far. That’s much more like it.

10. Higher seeds were just 4-4 ATS today. The Big Ten and Big 12, both 2-1 ATS, were the only profitable power conferences.

I’ll be here again for the first eight games of the day. Times are still mountain time, so adjust accordingly.

10:17 - We are just underway with Tennessee and American. The Eagles are out to a 4-2 lead. Watch out world, here comes American!

10:25 - Davidson and Gonzaga are about to get underway. This game is brilliant, and I am very excited about it, but it is a travesty that these two teams have to match up in the first round.

10:29 - Three minutes in and I already know that this one will live up to the hype. End to end action and sharp shooting.

11:06 - Tennessee is up by seven at the half. That’s probably closer than Bruce Pearl’s game plan.

11:16 - Gonzaga played that first half like they are tired of hearing how Davidson is the new Gonzaga. The Bulldogs have the edge, but the second half sets up to be a war. Davidson may want to find a way to guard freshman Steven Gray. He has a career high 15 points in the first half, and can’t miss from outside.

11:17 - Speaking of battles, the Drake - Western Kentucky game is a seesaw. The Hilltoppers took a lead, then the Bulldogs took one, and now Western Kentucky is back up. The Hilltoppers are shooting the lights out and are up by nine at the half. Like the Gonzaga game, it is a shame that these teams have to play in the first round, because both deserve a chance to play again.

11:23 - All of Australia rejoices as the St. Mary’s Gaels and their Aussie-heavy roster look very comfortable in leading Miami by five. Is it just me, or is Miami the least inspiring power conference team in the tournament?

11:30 - American will not go away. They have closed the gap to one three minutes into the second half. What is in the water for the 15 seeds this year?

11:55 - Looks like I spoke to soon about St. Mary’s -they have gone from five up to seven down in just over four minutes.

12:04 - Drake is down by 16 with 11 minutes left. I might be mixing up my fairy tales here, but Cinderella better find a prince to kiss soon before she turns into a frog.

12:05 - Stephen Curry has 32 points in 31 minutes. Any doubts about how freaking good this guy is?

12:29 - Adam Morrison was just shown on the sidelines at the Gonzaga game. He looked like a freak when he was playing, but that Morrison looked like a male model compared to the uber-freak he has become now.

12:32 - Heck of an effort by American, and a nice cover to boot.

12:37 - Davidson wins the best game of the tournament so far. I can’t say enough about Curry. Their game against Georgetown is going to be fascinating.

12:39 - I take back what I said about Miami. They came out and laid a serious beating on St. Mary’s in the second half.

12:48 - Going to overtime with Drake and Western Kentucky. There has been more drama in the first two and a half hours today than there was in 12 hours yesterday. Heck of a comeback by Drake to get this far. Now it’s just a question of whether the momentum can carry over to the second half. I’m torn on that - sometimes I think it does, other times I don’t. Helpful, I know.

12:59 - One of my favorite parts of the tournament is discovering players I didn’t know much about who shine in the spotlight. Win or lose, Tyrone Brazelton, the point guard for Western Kentucky, is one of those players. Incredible performance.

1:10 - Best shot of the tournament so far goes to Ty Rogers of Western Kentucky. His long, long three went through the hoop as time expired in overtime to give Western Kentucky the win. The last five minutes of regulation and that overtime are why college basketball is king.

1:16 - The higher seeds were just 1-3 ATS in the first group of games today. A reversal from yesterday. Had to happen eventually.

1:31 - Least shocking news of the day - a number 15, UMBC, is hanging tough with a two, Georgetown. They are tied 11 minutes in.

1:48 - Western Kentucky may be the new darlings, but conference-mates South Alabama are not faring nearly as well. They are down by 17 to Butler at the half. The Bulldogs look very good so far. They should - they are a four seed in seven seed clothing.

1:56 - The dream’s not dead for UMBC, but it’s on life support. Georgetown drove a dagger into the Retrievers’ ribs with a three at the buzzer to take a 12 point lead into the final.

1:57 - Texas has finally shown that it is possible for a two seed to exert their dominance early and maintain it. They took and early lead and haven’t really looked back against Austin Peay. The Longhorns are up by 15 and look to be in total control. Of course, the last time I said that about a team at halftime they lost the game by 14, so heed my opinion accordingly.

2:02 - San Diego is up by two over UConn halfway through the first half. Maybe the Toreros feel they have something to prove since the other two tournament teams from their conference had a rough morning.

2:13 - I’ve been waiting to hear if the injury to UConn point guard A.J. Price is serious. It seems to be a real knee problem, and that’s bad news for Calhoun and the boys. San Diego was tight with Price in the game, so they could be in decent shape now, and they have the bonus of believing that it is possible now. Price may be back in the second half, but this is going to be one to watch. San Diego is now up by six.

2:31 - San Diego is up by five at the half. I still would have to favor the Huskies because of who they are, but the Toreros do not look uncomfortable with the lead.

2:33 - Georgetown and Butler both look to be in cruise control.

2:58 - Is Butler this good or is South Alabama overrated? The Bulldogs are up by 25 with less than two left and are just ruthlessly efficient and impressive. Bruce Pearl is in the audience and, funnily enough, he doesn’t seem to be enjoying the game that much. Butler-Tennessee could be the game of the day on Sunday.

3:11 - San Diego may not hold on, but they deserve credit because they clearly want it more. They are too small to be out-rebounding UConn, but they have been doing it for long stretches of time. I fear a fall back to earth, though. If it’s coming for San Diego it will come back soon.

3:18 - Georgetown and Texas both held on to cover their big spreads. That’s 3-0 ATS for the higher seeds in this group, and 4-3 ATS for them on the day. Still profitable for a public-following monkey. UConn will have to work hard to cover their 12.5 point spread, though.

3:20 - I’m not giving up yet, but San Diego is in trouble. They look tired and UConn has woken up and is asserting their strength. San Diego is down, and now we get to see if they have what it takes to pick themselves back up again.

3:49 - Something crazy is going on in Tampa - two games, two overtime thrillers. I’m impressed with San Diego’s ability to hang on this long, though I bet that Ginty would like to have those two missed late free throws back. I’m not even going to guess what is going to happen now, other than UConn isn’t going to cover.

4:09 - Sometimes teams get exactly what they deserved. San Diego was incredible all day, and they earned that win in a big, big way. That’s the first time in 15 tries that Jim Calhoun has lost in the first round with the Huskies. That’s amazing. What an absolutely incredible game, and a great end to a great afternoon of basketball. Gyno Pomare is another one of those guys who rose up and amazed in the spotlight. Wow.

4:11 - Western Kentucky versus San Diego. You had that one on your bracket, right? For the record, a 12 has played a 13 five times, and the higher seeded team has won four of them.

4:12 - Enjoy the rest of the games today.

Midwest- Round One
Clemson Tigers (5) Vs. Villanova Wildcats (12)
Friday, March 21 @ 9:50 pm

The #22 Clemson Tigers (10- 6 ACC, 24- 9) finished third in the ACC and went to the finals of the conference tourney where they lost to UNC 86- 81. The Clemson squad is deep. Five players average 10 or more point per game and three have six or more rebounds per game. On defense, they average 9.9 SPG and 5.5 BPG.

Guard/forward K.C. Rivers (14.7 PPG, 6.4 RPG) tops all Tiger scorers. Along with being a 41% three-point shooter, he’s a sound defensive player. Forward/center Trevor Booker (11.2 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 1.9 BPG) hits 55% of his field goals, while forward James Mays (10.9 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 1.8 SPG) is a 48% shooter. Guard Cliff Hammonds (11.5 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 4.0 APG), who ably sets up plays, can take the ball to the basket or hit from outside.

The Villanova Wildcats (9- 9 Big East, 20 -12 overall) finished in eighth-place in the Big East. The Cats had a tough time finding consistency throughout most of the season. They have no seniors on their roster and enter the tournament for the most part untested.

Sophomore guard Scottie Reynolds (15.6 PPG, 3.3 APG) is the best player on the squad. Guard Dante Cunningham(10.4 PPG, 6.5 RPG) is the only other Nova player to average double-digits in scoring. The inside game is middling at best, with forwards Shane Clark (7.2 PPG, 4.3 RPG) and Antonio Pena (7.0 PPG, 4.3 RPG) contributing the most.

Although the Wildcats are considered a defensive team, they have not been able to stop opponents from beyond the arc. Villanova struggles without Reynolds in the game. Clemson looks to hold the upper paw in this battle between the Tigers and the Wildcats.

Free Tournament Pick

As for who to bet, small lean towards the more talented Clemson but the better bet is on the total.  Although the number has gone up 3 points since the opener of 141, Over 144 still looks like a decent bet.  Both of these clubs are athletic and will be more than happy to get in a track meet.  With the spread sitting right around 6 that fits squarely into foul fest mode for added insurance.

Take Villanova & Clemson to go over the posted total of 144.

Technorati Tags: clemson, villanova,  preview, free tournament pick 

We are just a couple minutes away from the first tip-off. I’ll check in periodically throughout the day with thoughts and such. All times will be mountain time, so add two hours for eastern, subtract one for pacific and so on:

10:20 a.m. - We’re underway with Xavier and Georgia. It is very strange seeing a power conference as a 14 seed. Xavier is out to a very quick 5-0 lead. Hopefully the Bulldogs wake up soon.

10:30 a.m. - Watching Georgia play makes me realize that teams need some creativity in names. Bulldogs - Georgia, Butler, Gonzaga, Mississippi State, Drake. Wildcats - Villanova, Davidson, Kansas State, Kentucky, Arizona. Eagles - Winthrop, American, Oral Roberts (though there’s are Golden), Marquette (also Golden), Coppin State. Throw in two Cougars, a bunch of other varieties of wild felines, two Mountaineers, two Bruins (and a few bears by other names as well), a million teams named after some kind of soldier, and two shades of red playing each other and there isn’t a whole lot of uniqueness going on.

10:50 - The line actually dropped in the Kansas game after it was released (from 25 to 22). Apparently the public loves Portland State. So far it seems hard to understand why - they are down by 13 after 12 minutes.

11:10 - Georgia is up on Xavier by nine at the half after sinking the last six baskets. That is really not good news for my brackets. Dennis Felton is doing the best job of saving his job-in-jeopardy of any coach in the history of coaching.

11:14 - Kansas is up by 23 at the half. They need to find a way to make these 1 vs. 16 games more interesting. Maybe something involving live alligators or water and electricity.

11:20 - Michigan State over Temple by nine at the half. This one was really close for quite a while, and then suddenly it really wasn’t. It is amazing how many easy baskets the Spartans have had.

11:40 - Xavier is down by 11 with 15 minutes left. They badly need a big run soon. The problem is that they aren’t really a team built for a big run. I have a bit of a sick feeling building up in my stomach over this one.

12:05 - Or maybe they can come back. Xavier is now up by three with seven minutes left.

12:37 - All three games are over and all three favorites covered. The public is having a good day so far. I was impressed by how Michigan State came out and took care of business against a pesky opponent, and I was very impressed with how Xavier jumped all over Georgia when the Bulldogs faltered.

1:06 - I’ll send the Mountain West conference some love while I still can. UNLV has jumped out to a nice 9-2 lead in a tough game against Kent State. I think it is a shame that both Mountain West teams were given eight seeds - they deserved better.

1:10 - I know that there were problems with the logo, but Marquette should still be the Warriors. The Golden Eagles just doesn’t sound as good, or have the history.

1:20 - Oral Roberts is leading Pitt more than seven minutes in. Clearly their prayer edge is paying off so far.

1:30 - Marquette by four at the half. This has been a good game, but neither team is playing particularly well. I think that the team that asserts itself first in the second half will take it.

1:31 - Someone needs to call the cops to protect Kent State. The Rebels, a one point underdog, are now up by 21 with three minutes left. This is an epic beatdown so far. Fear the MWC!

1:54 - What does a coach say to a team at halftime which has scored just 10 points in the first half? I would guess that there would be yelling. And chair throwing. And quite possibly murder.

1:57 - Purdue is up by 19 at the half. I’m a bit surprised that it is so one-sided, but my guess is that Baylor will tighten up a bit in the second half. Not enough to win, but enough to make it responsible.

1:58 - Pitt up by 23 at the half. Maybe prayer doesn’t work after all.

2:53 - Two more games over, two more higher seeds (Marquette and UNLV) with fairly comfortable wins and with covers. That puts the higher seeds at 5-0 ATS, and the favorites at 4-1 ATS because people didn’t respect the Mountain West. So far, a monkey could handicap this thing.

3:11 - That’s now 7-0 ATS for the higher seeds after Purdue and Pitt cruised. I guess that means that Stanford is the pick in the only game underway now. I’m okay with that. The Lopez twins look ridiculously huge when they are beside Ivy League guys.

3:23 - Cornell just needs to take a deep breath. They are outclassed, but they can put up a respectable effort if they relax and do what got them here. A 1-for-9 start shooting is not the answer.

4:05 - Cornell shot 5-for-32 from the field in the first half. Not a lot of winning is going to happen when you shoot that poorly. Just ask Kent State.

5:06 - 8-0 ATS for the higher seeds after Stanford crushed the life out of Cornell. Games that one-sided and uncompetitive are not at all fun to watch.

5:17 - K-State has come out swinging. They are shooting well, and their defense on Mayo is relentless. If this pace keeps up then this will be a classic. Beasley got his second foul less than five minutes in, though, so that doesn’t bode well.

5:31 - Two biggest things I have seen in the USC game so far: 1. When Beasley is on the court he is ridiculously disruptive - Bill Walker is all over the place because the Trojans are so worried about Beasley right now. 2. USC’s cheerleaders are far superior to Kansas State’s.

5:36 - If Belmont could play 15 minute games they would be deadly. They have hung tight early with UCLA and Georgetown before getting blown out in recent years, and now they are a point behind Duke with less than seven minutes left in the first half.

6:03 - Three games head to halftime at about the same time. Belmont hung strong, but the fact that they are wildly outclassed started to show later on, and I expect Duke to roll in the second half. Unfortunately. Winthrop is tied with Washington State at the half. It’s not a fluke. They are playing tough and matching the Cougars blow for blow. Washington State clearly has the edge, but they will have to be alert to avoid an embarrassment. Kansas State is up on USC by 10, and they have beat them up in every way, and without Beasley being the star. I will be watching very closely to see what the first five minutes of the second half look like. If they aren’t significantly different then this could get ugly.

6:23 - Great game between BYU and Texas A&M in Anaheim. The Cougars were down 11-0 to start, but they came back to tie it up at 20 at the half. BYU looks patient and controlled (Go Mountain West!). Now if only they could shoot free throws.

6:35 - Just looking back over the first eight of today’s games you realize how close they weren’t. Seven of the eight were decided by at least 11, and the one that wasn’t, Marquette’s, wasn’t as close as it seemed because Kentucky had no time outs and no choice but to foul in the last minute. Here’s hoping we get some tighter ones the rest of today and tomorrow.

6:43 - USC has answered the bell. They look like a totally different team than the first half, and they have closed the ten point gap in less than eight minutes. Washington State has found their game, too.

6:44 - Belmont is tied with Duke with 9 minutes left. An upset here, with apologies to my wife in regards to our wedding day, would make this the best day of my life.

6:45 - The look my wife just gave me tells me that I should mention that I am kidding. Sort of.

7:12 - Washington State ran away in the second to make it 9-0 ATS for the higher seeded teams. That’ll change in just a second thanks to Duke.

7:18 - Duke is very, very lucky. And I hate them.

7:22 - Very, very impressive win by Kansas State. Their next game against (presumably) Wisconsin will be fascinating. It would be harder to find a bigger clash of styles between the high flying Wildcats and the dull and plodding Badgers.

7:26 - Higher seeds are now 9-2 ATS. Not as good, but still surprising.

7:44 - Texas A&M was able to hold on over BYU in a very good game. That’s another lower seed.

8:00 - I wasn’t expecting to see Cal State Fullerton come out and score 10 in four minutes against the Wisconsin defense. It will be interesting to see if and when the Badgers tighten that up.

8:07 - It’s early yet but it doesn’t look like George Mason is going to be the next George Mason. They are down by 16 to Notre Dame halfway through the first. The Irish are probably just desperate not to repeat the travesty against Winthrop last year.

8:17 - Kevin Love has seven points and three blocks in the first four and a half minutes. His back seems fine.

8:38 - Very odd game in Omaha. Wisconsin looked sloppy early, locked it down and built and eight point lead, then let Fullerton back with an 8-0 before taking the two point halftime lead with a late basket It will be an interesting second half. Maybe. It also could be a Washington State-like second half.

8:44 - Arizona - West Virginia is going to be a great second half. I find the Wildcats very frustrating, but they sure have talent and I am a fan. Notre Dame - George Mason, on the other hand, probably won’t be that good. The Irish are up by 12 and are looking very good.

8:54 - The good news for UCLA backers is that the Bruins are up by 24 at the half. The bad news is that they still need nine points to cover the spread, and they will be playing the water boy and three cheerleaders in the second half.

9:39 - George Mason went down with a whimper. While their was little to learn from this game, it was nice to see that Luke Harangody is ready and willing to step up and carry his team in the tournament.

9:54 - It might be time to give up on Arizona. It’s been a long, long time since that program has lived up to potential, yet I keep falling for them. I can’t quit you, Wildcats.

9:57 - The UCLA game made the Kansas game look like a barnburner.

10:01 - Wisconsin got their act together and played like they can in the second half to cover nicely.

Final thoughts

The higher seeded teams ended up at 13-3 ATS. That is quite surprising to me, but indicative perhaps of how top-heavy the tournament is.

The most impressive performance was Kansas State. Beasley got in foul trouble early, but he had the discipline to calm down, get his act together, and dominate. As impressive - Bill Walker stepped up his game, and the Wildcats showed real depth. If they can do that again then Wisconsin could have their hands full.

There was a one point thriller, a five point game, and the 14 games that were fairly one-sided. This was not a day for dramatic finishes. Tomorrow, hopefully, is another day.

Good night.

When I was a little kid I was never able to sleep on Christmas Eve. I could hardly even stand to close my eyes. I would just lie there thinking of what was about to come the next day - the presents, the food, the people, the excitement. It was excruciating and torturous, and every second seemed like an hour. Now that I am older, that Christmas eve experience takes place on a Wednesday in the middle of March. The tournament starts tomorrow, and I absolutely cannot wait. Ever since the college football season ended my primary focus has been on college basketball, and it all leads to the three weeks of insanity that get underway tomorrow. I have played every game over in my mind a million times, and I have a hundred different theories about how it might all work out, but until it starts we can’t be sure which, if any, are correct. As I sit here willing the hours to pass until the first tip-off, here are the ten things that I am most looking forward to about the first two rounds:

1. O.J. versus Beasley. The USC - Kansas State game is overhyped and it might disappoint, but the chance to see two guys who are almost certain to be excellent pros, and who are the heart and soul of their exciting teams, is a dream for basketball fans. I just wish they weren’t playing on the first day - a game like this should be on the second weekend.

2. Davidson versus Gonzaga. Speaking of things that shouldn’t be on the first weekend. These are two mid-major programs that make a joke of the term mid-major because of their continued success and their willingness to seek out and challenge the best. Mark Few is a coaching machine, and Stephen Curry is as much fun to watch as any player in the tournament. The fireworks in this game should be crazy, and the winner stands a decent chance of moving on into the second weekend.

3. Butler versus Tennessee. Butler will have to get past a tough South Alabama team first, but if they do then their second game will be a classic. Both teams are very talented, and both will be highly motivated because they should be insulted by the seeds they were given. Tennessee was the last two seed when they had a legitimate claim at a number one, while Butler is better than they were last year when they were a five, and yet they got a seven. Feeling slighted often brings out the best in teams.

4. Watching Vanderbilt struggle. Shan Foster is a very nice player, but I have very little faith in the Commodores. They are maddeningly inconsistent, and I think that they are the worst of the number fours by a wide margin. They have tough games against Siena and then the winner of the Clemson-Villanova game, and I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see them fall before the weekend is over.

5. Swearing at Duke. Like many of the sports fans on this continent, I truly, deeply hate the Blue Devils. Every time I see Coach K I feel a very strong urge to slap him. I don’t like his team much this year, and I really don’t like how they are playing lately, so I am hopeful and cautiously optimistic that they will face a challenge that they are not up to.

6. Watching Memphis prove a point. I am a huge and unapologetic fan of John Calipari and Memphis, so I am very sick of hearing how they are overrated and won’t be competitive. I’m sure that the team is much more sick of it than I am. They have a fairly soft opening weekend, and I think that the feelings of disrespect will fuel them to come out and deliver a real message in their first two games. Derrick Rose and Chris Douglas-Roberts match up well with the two best players on any team in the country, and I hope to see them prove it.

7. Seeing which Indiana shows up. The Hoosiers have some incredible talent and should be in a good position to do some serious damage in this tournament. They aren’t because the school hired the worst kind of human being as a coach, and he screwed them over. I am very curious to see if they can play up to their potential. If they can it will make for a couple of very interesting games. Unfortunately, my instinct is that they won’t.

8. West Virginia versus Arizona. Arizona is underachieving, and they have had to endure a truly bizarre coaching situation this year, but they have three legitimate first round draft picks on the roster, and they can play as well as any team when they are at their best. If they can get their act together they could go far. That’s a big if, but if they can pull it together then it would be very exciting. And yes, some of my motivation here is to see Duke lose.

9. Purdue versus Baylor. Purdue is an exciting team to watch which is just dripping with potential because of the incredible collection of young players and the solid coaching. Baylor’s resurgence is one of the more incredible stories in recent basketball history. This is one of those games that I wish both teams could win, so I will be overrun with mixed feelings as I watch this one. I just hope that it is a memorable game.

10. Four straight days of endless basketball. The two best days of the tournament are the first two days because of all the games and the crazy storylines that emerge every day. The second two days are almost as good for most of the same reasons. This weekend makes me happy to be a sports fan, and even happier that watching the games is essentially my job. Life is good.