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Baseball Handicapping

Here are the current Major League Baseball articles and how to tips from Maddux Sports.

Baseball Betting for Rookie Bettors

Baseball is a great sport to bet on. For bettors who donít regularly bet on it, though, it can be very intimidating. There are a couple of good reasons for that. Most significantly, you have to bet with the moneyline or runline when most bettors are more familiar with the point spread. There is also the relentlessness of baseball to deal with - 15 games almost every day with no breaks and little time to analyze and process the endless number of statistics that are available. If you can get past the intimidation, though, then it can be a fun and ...

Baseball Betting Preseason Prep Tips

Right now baseball seems like the furthest thing from our minds - itís the middle of winter and the Super Bowl is still a couple of weeks away. Before you know it, though, it will be spring training time. Pitchers and catchers report just a week after the Super Bowl, and spring training games kick off less than three weeks later. ...

Baseball Betting with Relievers Moving To Rotation

Over the course of each baseball season we see several pitchers who have been toiling in the bullpen become regular members of the starting rotation. Sometimes it is a middle reliever, while other times it will be a closer or set-up man. For bettors these transitions can be challenging. We have come to know the pitcher in a very different role than that of a starter, so we have to figure out how he is going to be able to make that transition. Will he be an effective starter, or an opportunity to find value in betting against him and his team? H ...

Baseball Handicapping and Short Rest Pitchers

One of the toughest parts of handicapping the playoffs in baseball is pitchers going on short rest. The deeper we get into the postseason the more desperate teams get, and the more likely it is that a guy will be asked to pitch sooner than would be ideal. A pitcher pitching on short rest is definitely not the same guy he would be in ideal circumstances. Some guys handle it better than others, but every guy is affected by it to some degree. The trick for handicappers is to determine how much they will be affected, and what that means for the gam ...

Baseball Handicapping for Injured Starting Pitchers

As the season progresses in baseball it is a sure thing that starting pitchers are going to get hurt and be forced to miss a start or more. For handicappers any change to the rotation can cause a headache because it introduces more uncertainty to the handicapping process. Itís not as simple as viewing an injury and the disruption that it causes as a bad thing because sometimes teams can handle the situation very well. Here are seven issues to consider when trying to determine how much of an impact there will be on a team when an injury occurs t ...

What to Know Before Betting on Rookie Pitchers

Every year at the start of the Major League Baseball season there are many rookie pitchers making their major league debut. In the next couple of months many more guys who werenít quite ready to start the year get their chance. For bettors those pitchers can create interesting betting opportunities. If the bettors arenít careful, though, then it can be very easy to make mistakes that can prove to be costly. Here are five big mistakes that bettors make when betting on games featuring rookie pitchers: ...

Betting Adjustments for Baseball's Spring Training

Spring training is an interesting time for Baseball bettors. Baseball takes their preseason much more seriously than other sports, so itís much more compelling than other preseasons. That could make it tempting for people to bet on it, then. The problem, though, is that betting on spring training is very different than betting on the regular season. If you try to bet in March the same way you do in August youíll probably find yourself with some real problems. ...

Betting Adjustments for Baseball Playoffs

In many ways betting on the baseball playoffs is no different than betting on the regular season - after all, baseball is baseball. There are a few key ways, though, that the two portions of the season differ from each other. Winning bettors over the long term are those who can recognize those differences and effectively adjust to them. Here are eight ways that the playoffs are different for bettors from the 162 games that preceded them: ...

Betting Baseball With Ace vs Ace Hype

During the long baseball season games can blend into each other and all seem like they are the same. When there is something that can make a particular game stand out from the crowd and gain some attention then it can really draw a lot of betting attention. One of the ways that games can stand out is if both teams are starting their aces. The betting public loves betting on aces, so if there are two with big reputations then it can really create some excitement. For handicappers, though, these situations can be challenging. It can be very hard ...

Betting on Misleading Baseball Stats

Baseball is a stat driven league. That means that handicappers who want to be successful have to have a good grasp on statistics and how to interpret them. The problem, though, is that some of the statistics that are regularly published in newspapers and magazines, discussed on TV, and embrace by the public arenít particularly useful as indicators of what players and teams are really capable of. Hereís a look at five well-publicized statistics that arenít nearly as significant as you would guess based on the attention they get: ...

Challenges of Opening Day Baseball Betting

For baseball fans and bettors, opening day is a great, great day. Itís when everything is new, and everything is still possible. Itís also the end of an offseason that seems very long after we got used to seeing so many games played every day for months. For bettors who arenít careful, though, opening day can offer some unique challenges that can be costly if you arenít thinking about them. Here are six of the biggest challenges of betting opening day: ...

Differences of MLB Wildcard and LCS Betting

Baseball bettors know that betting on the playoffs is a very different proposition than betting on the regular season. In some subtle but still significant ways betting on the wild card round, the LDS, is different that betting on the LCS as well. here are seven of those differences and the impact they can have for bettors: ...

Evaluating Futures of Slow Starting MLB Teams

Every year in baseball there are a couple of teams that should be pretty good that get off to absolutely terrible starts. Within a couple of weeks of the season they have fallen well below .500, and are miles out of first place in their division. Sometimes these starts are signs of bigger problems that will continue to be an issue all season. Other times the issues quickly resolve themselves and the team gets back on track - by the dog days of summer the slow start is just a distant memory. The trick for bettors, of course, is to be able to get ...

Evaluating Odds Using MLB Starter Matchups

Baseball bettors always hear about the importance of evaluating matchups - how a starting pitcher stacks up against an opposing offense. But what does that actually mean? Here are seven factors to consider when evaluating starting pitcher matchups: ...

Handicapping Clues from Baseball Spring Training

It is very difficult to learn too much that is meaningful from the games played in the first half of spring training. Teams donít care about the results, preparation means more than wins, rosters are in a constant state of flux, and split squads make it very tough to assess matchups, so what we see on the field tells us little about what to expect on the field in April and beyond. That doesnít mean that the first 10 or 15 games of the spring are meaningless for bettors, though. In fact, you can pick up a lot of clues about what the future might ...

Handicapping MLB Team Momentum into Playoffs

Momentum should be a dirty word for sports bettors. It is one of the hardest concepts in sports to become comfortable with, and one of the very easiest ways for a bettor to be led off track and bet on a team that isnít as good as they may seem. One of the hardest times to judge momentum is heading into the Major League Baseball playoffs. Momentum is always a challenge in baseball, but it is especially tough heading into the playoffs. Some teams can have all sorts of momentum heading into the playoffs, while others donít because they donít need ...

Handicapping Rookie Pitcher Hype

Every year in baseball there are a couple of rookie pitchers who absolutely explode onto the scene. They may or may not have been highly heralded before the season starts, but by June they have piled up the wins, scorched the radar guns, and garnered miles and miles of headlines. Sometimes these hot rookies turn into hot aces. Other times, though, their stars have burnt out by the time August or September rolls around. If you can spot the rookies who arenít likely to live up to the hype then you have a good shot at getting some value thanks to ...

How to Handle Streaking Pitchers

As a baseball handicapper there is nothing that annoys me more than streaky pitchers. They can look for a long time like they canít possible lose, and then before you know it - and for seemingly no reason - they can forget how to pitch for several games in a row. It can be tough to figure out when a good period is going to start or end, and you can lose some serious cash trying to pick when that turn might come. You donít want to avoid streaky pitchers entirely, of course, because when they are losing or winning several in a row you can really ...

Handling Baseball Broken Streaks

Streaks are a big part of baseball. You never have to wait long until you can see another team in the midst of a long stretch of futility. Because teams play virtually every day it doesnít take long for the losses to add up, and things can get ugly in a hurry if a team loses confidence. Streaks are crucial for bettors. They can ride them while they are ongoing, and cash several times in a row. As the streak extends, another lucrative opportunity exists as well - anticipating the end of the streak. The longer a losing streak is the more attentio ...

How to Handicap Baseball Bullpens

For baseball handicappers there are few things harder to evaluate than bullpens. It is tough to know in any given game how much a bullpen is likely to be needed, which pitchers will be used, and which batters they are likely to face. The response that most bettors have in this situation is just to ignore the bullpen - they donít factor it into their handicapping at all. That can be appropriate in many situations, but if you ignore the bullpens completely then you can miss out on potentially value-filled situations. Here are six factors to consi ...

How to Succeed in Baseball Handicapping

I love handicapping baseball. I donít think it is the hardest sport to handicap overall, but it is a unique challenge. In order to succeed at the sport you have to be able to make some adjustments form other sports, and to do some things that you arenít required to be able to do in other sports. Here are five skills that are unique to success in baseball handicapping: ...

Identifying True Improvement in MLB Teams

Typically, it takes several years for a baseball team to develop and grow from a pretender to a contender. Every so often, though, a team is able to go from the basement to the penthouse in just one year. The Twins made a habit of it in the 1980s and early 1990s, and Arizona, Colorado, Tampa Bay and others have pulled it off as well. Itís very exciting to watch one of these miraculous recoveries. It can also be extremely profitable to jump on the bandwagon early on these teams and ride them as long as you can. Of course, thatís much easier to s ...

How To Identify Pitchers Bouncing Back

One of the best sources of value in baseball betting - especially in the first couple of months of the season - is betting on pitchers coming off a lousy year who are returning to their full potential - or at least something close to it. The trick, of course, is that you have to be able to spot these pitchers. Thatís an inexact science, but here are six things to consider when you are looking for them: ...

Issues of Betting on MLB April Games

If you are anything like me the you are very excited for the dawn of April because it means that baseball - the most glorious of sports for bettors - is here again. Itís here for a long time, too. It can be tough betting on baseball when it starts, though, because baseball in April is different than baseball in any other month of the season. If you are aware of the uniqueness of April and can compensate for the differences then it can be a very profitable, enjoyable month for you. If you ignore them, though, then youíre going to dig yourself in ...

Judging Baseball's Fast Starting Pitchers

At the start of every Major League Baseball season there are a few pitchers who get off to very fast starts. In their first couple of starts they are virtually unhittable. That leads to an impressive record, a microscopic ERA, impressive stats, and increased attention from the public. The challenge for bettors is to determine whether the fast start is a sign of a very good year ahead for the pitcher, or if he is soon going to fall back to earth. The more accurate your sense of what to expect from the pitcher, the more effectively you can seek o ...

Opportunity of Baseball Parlay Bets

Most people who are familiar with the intricacies of sports betting will tell you that parlays are for suckers. In almost all cases they are right. There are situations in baseball that can be different, though. In fact, sometimes parlaying in baseball can be a good idea. ...

Pitfalls of Baseball Win Total Prop Bets

I love playing baseball season win totals. The number of games teams play and the power of statistics in baseball make the win totals a better place to search for value than any other long term prop bet that is available. The win totals are popular, and that popularity is growing every year. If you arenít careful, though, you can easily fall into traps and make mistakes that can remove all of the value from the bets and make them very unattractive. Here are seven of the biggest mistakes to avoid when making these types of bets: ...

How to Predict MLB Pennant Race Collapses

When a Major League Baseball team enters September with a cushion of five games or more in the pennant or wild card race then they typically can hang on and get ready for their berth in the playoffs. From time to time, though, weíll see a team that seems determined to fall out of playoff contention. A playoff team should be rounding into top form in late September, but these teams will lose far more than they win, and they can let a team that should have been totally out of contention get right back into the hunt. When a team is collapsing down ...

How to Predict MLB Season Win Totals

With spring training almost underway, that means we are close to one of my favorite times of the year as a sports bettor - the release of baseball season win totals. These are the most interesting props available in any sport all year because they are so interesting to think about, and because you can do pretty well on them if you put your work in. There are as many approaches to handicapping these win totals as there are people who handicap them. Over time, though, Iíve developed a rough formula for figuring out these totals - I told you I lik ...

Post Tommy John Impact on Baseball Handicapping

Tommy John surgery, the procedure in which a damaged ligament in a pitcherís elbow is replaced by a tendon from elsewhere in the body, is incredibly common these days in baseball, and becoming more so every day. When it was first performed on Tommy John in 1974 he was given about a one percent chance of full recovery. He played until 1989 and won 164 more games. Now full recovery occurs in about 90 percent of cases. Players who face the surgery now face about a year of recovery time, but we are at the point where their recovery is fully expecte ...

Uncommon Baseball Bets - 5 Inning Bet

When people think about betting on baseball, they usually consider the moneyline or, less frequently, the runline. There is another option that is far less often considered, but which can be useful in some circumstances - the 5 inning bet, also known as the first half bet. This simply is a line that is set based on the outcome of the first five innings of a game. Itís not a bet that you would likely want to use all the time, but once you understand them you can find creative ways to make the most of them. Here are three strengths and three weak ...

Understanding Baseball Runline - Alternate Bet

A lot of casual Baseball bettors have enough trouble getting their heads around the moneyline , so they donít even consider the runline - a moneyline with a spread of 1.5 runs. Itís a mistake because in the right situations the runline can be very profitable. The favorite has to win by two runs in order for a runline bet to pay off, so there is a higher payoff when you bet a runline and win then there is if you just bet the favorite to win the game. It is a good way to turn a short priced favorite into one with an acceptable or attractive price ...

Weather's Impact on World Series Betting

By the time the World Series rolls around the weather can be a real issue. The games are played in the last half of October, and the games are played at night, so itís almost certain to be cold in northern markets, and rain and even snow can occasionally be a factor. Handicappers need to give the weather more consideration in the World Series than they do any other time of year. The reason for that is simple - if one team is used to the weather and the other isnít it can be a big advantage. Even if both teams are relatively comfortable with the ...

World Series Overlooked Betting Mistakes

Betting on the World Series is one of the best things that Baseball bettors get to do each year. If you arenít careful, though, it can also be a very easy time of year to make costly betting mistakes. The coverage of the World Series is understandably more comprehensive and more intense for the Fall Classic than for any other time of the year, and public interest is more intense than ever as a result. For bettors that means that lines are less predictable, and there is more noise that needs to be blocked out when you are handicapping games. Her ...

Early Season MLB Betting Mistakes

The offseason in baseball can seem like it goes on forever. For Baseball bettors, then, opening day is a time of immense excitement and possibility. The first couple of weeks of the new baseball season can be unpredictable, though. New faces and changed teams can make it hard to get a good sense of what is likely to happen, and where the value is. People can make a good profit in those first uncertain weeks. If they arenít careful, though, they can also make some very costly mistakes that can lead to real problems. Here are five big mistakes be ...

Judging Baseballs Underdog Bets

Baseball betting is largely done on the moneyline . Any time you are betting on the moneyline underdogs become attractive - there is nothing wrong at all with getting back more money than you bet when you win. The challenge, though, is telling the difference between the live longshots that are worthy of your support, and the ones that arenít going to win and are just going to cost you money instead. Here are five tips that can help you spot underdogs that are ready to pounce and to deliver a nice payoff: ...

Mistake of Overreacting to Baseball News

Baseball seems like such a simple game - you hit the ball and run around the bases. People who know and love the sport, though, know how complex and at times confusing it can be. For everything that really matters in baseball there are a dozen things that seem like they should but really donít. That misleading complexity can lead to problems for casual bettors because they can easily overcompensate for those situations that seem like a good reason to panic but really arenít. Here are four of the things that seem to be easiest for bettors to ove ...

Top Mistakes When Betting MLB Season Win Totals

Regular season win totals are an increasingly popular bet, and one that can often present nice value for astute bettors. The problem is, though, that it can be incredibly easy to make costly mistakes with these bets because of the amount of time your money is locked up, and the amount of risk and uncertainty involved in them. Here are six mistakes bettors often make when betting MLB regular season win totals: ...

Mistakes When Evaluating Starting Pitchers

When it comes to handicapping baseball there is nothing more important than evaluating starting pitchers. Itís the pitchers that make the difference between good games for a team and bad ones. No other single player affects the outcome of games in any major sport more than the starting pitcher does. When casual Baseball bettors makes their picks there are mistakes that are easy to make - and very costly. Hereís a look at five big mistakes bettors make when evaluating pitchers: ...

MLB Managers Impact on Handicapping Games

Managers are a tough thing for baseball handicappers to deal with. On the grand scale they are obviously important - the manager sets the tone for the team and keeps them on task and motivated. From game to game, though, I donít believe at all that managers are particularly important - outside of big playoff games the impact of the managers is far less than other factors to the outcome of an individual game. That means that I factor the manager into the overall perception of a team, but the manager wonít make a difference in a single game - I w ...

Hidden World Series Betting Opportunities

The World Series is by far the busiest time of the year for baseball betting. Serious bettors bet more money on the final series than on others, and more casual bettors are drawn to betting on the biggest games of the year. While it can be easy to make mistakes betting on the World Series, astute bettors know that the added attention on the games can provide nice opportunities for attractive value. Here are five opportunities for value that can arise during the World Series: ...

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